Friday, September 20, 2019

Week 4: Bienvenido a Miami

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 9-1 (0-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 9-1 (0-3 upset)
3.) Hoying 8-2 (1-2 upset)
3.) Draper 8-2 (1-2 upset)

Y'all know that the games last week were not terribly interesting. The top 8 teams or so proved that they're chasing forever, while the next tier...I'd advise you don't say nothin' about the abysmal efforts they turned in. Buckeyes, I loved you and your performance against Indiana. Unfortunately (or fortunately, to hell with conference pride), the rest of the B1G did not particularly inspire confidence. Wisconsin, sometimes I feel like it's just the two of us holding the conference together. But as long as the Bucks get another win this week against Miami, it's all good. And yes yes y'all, it should be like taking candy from a baby.

Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: Has the sheen worn off of the Wolverines yet? The shiny toy that Harbaugh trots out every year got some stink on it with the poor showing against Army...but that's why the number one rule in college football is NEVER SCHEDULE SERVICE ACADEMIES!  That being said, I think the flaws in the Michigan roster are being exposed.  Of course the raw physical talent exists, but the big uglies haven't been great (if you can't blow Army off the ball on offense, you have problems) and the defense looked suspect against the run...uh oh.  Wisconsin has essentially played paper bags to this point, but Jonathan Taylor is a very good running back who should give the Maize and Blue fits.  Add to that the Camp Randall atmosphere and it's primed for an 'upset'.  All the signs point to a Badger win...which makes me think a UM victory is in store.  That being said, I dislike these teams immensely, and I'll pick what with what the number suggest.  Hail to the Badgers.  UM: 13 -- UW: 20
Hoying: Ah, another ranked road matchup for the mighty Wolverines. Last season, the Wolverines snapped a 12-year losing streak in road games against ranked opponents, beating the mighty Michigan State Spartans (who ended up going 7-6 and not scoring more than 24 points in a single game for the rest of the season). The Wolverines have only visited one ranked road opponent since then and...well, you know how that turned out. Is there any reason to expect a different outcome this week? Not on paper, no. Wisconsin has been the one B1G team that has looked closer to invincible than our beloved Bucks in this young season, outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 55-0. Michigan's offense has looked somewhat less than spectacular, putting up a whopping 14 points on 9 regulation time possessions in their last outing against Army. 5 of those possessions ended on either a fumble or a turnover on downs, which indicates that Michigan might be able to look a little scary if they could get out of their own way. But I've heard that said about Illinois and Rutgers too. Sorry, Wolverines, this isn't your year (for what?) UM: 16--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin has played nobody so far and has looked unreal, as per tradition. TTUN hasn't really played anyone other than Army, a team they should have been able to pound the ball on. To be honest, I'm not sold on either of these teams. I laugh at the fact Harbaugh isn't on the hot seat. Because why have standards and expectations when you can be mediocre? The rumor going around is that Shea Patterson has been dealing with an injury (why was he playing week 1?). Add to that Charbonnet may not play, TTUN's offense is just sad, and the Badgers have Johnathan Taylor and this one is going to be as sad day for Wolverine fans.This will be a straight up slopfest. UM: 13--UW: 17
Seeberg:  At the start of this season, this should've been a massive game in the landscape of the B1G, if not all of college football.  Now?  Well U-Dub has yet to allow a point en route to a combined 110-0 point differential over it's first two contests.  Meanwhile, Meat-chicken needed two overtimes to outlast Army after needing 45-50 minutes to put away Middle Tennessee.  The maize and blue have been supposedly ready to "take the next step" since year two of Harbaugh's reign, yet they seem to have forgotten how to walk as he's now in year five and the program is merely marking time.  The Badgers are easily the class of the west yet again, and a big win over a supposed East power will cement them in the playoff conversation.  In short, a defense that hasn't allowed a point, at home, with a bye week, against an offense that scored a whopping 14 points in regulation against a service academy is a very poor recipe for the visiting team.  By third quarter's end, Camp Randall will be jumping around on the corpse of yet another scUM season before we enter October.  UM: 10-- UW: 27

Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: Auburn got a nice win out of the gate vs. Oregon in friendly SEC land while Texas A&M got waxed in Clemson (the score wasn't indicative of the pace of the game).  The issue is that A&M is a different team at home.  I think they're going to snakebite a team or two this year and poop away a few easy ones. I think the 12th man will be up for this one and bring the NO TOUGH GAMES IN THE SEC chants into the night.  Auburn has a solid front four, but I don't know if the secondary can hang or if the offense can get the points required to win a tough road game.  Gig em.  Aub: 17 -- TAMU: 34
Hoying: It may be a little early for the Aggies to start their annual collapse, but unfortunately for them, it looks like they have to face the good version of Auburn this year. Yeah, the opening season win over Oregon was kind of underwhelming, but that Oregon team did hang 77 on Nevada the following week. You know, the Nevada that knocked off Purdue. Where was I going with this? Oh right, Auburn is like a box of chocolates, and it's been 6 years or so since we've seen Good Auburn (shut up, 2017 Auburn, you lost to UCF), so maybe it's time to make some noise in the SEC west again. Sure, they have a freshman QB in Bo Nix, but it seems these days that teams are hard pressed to win a title without one (see: Lawrence, Trevor; Tagovailoa, Tua; Winston, Jameis). Then again, A&M did give Clemson a bit of a fit for a quarter or so, and the Tigers (the orange ones...er, the purple ones...er, the orange and purple ones) are still the reigning hyperdeath squad across the landscape of college football. Jimbo is desperate for a splashy win to justify his absurd paycheck, but he'll have to continue to hang his hat on that 74-72 oddity against LSU last season for now. Aub: 23--TAMU: 20
Schweinfurth: What do we know about these teams? Well, Auburn got lucky to beat Oregon in week 1 and TAMU got wrecked by Clemson. Okay, not great. What do I think? A&M is better and Auburn is riding one play to a top 10 spot. College Station is a tough place to play in games like this. Aub: 20--TAMU: 28
Seeberg:  Fun fact:  Auburn, currently ranked #8, is the FIFTH LOWEST RANKED TEAM on the Aggies' schedule.  Amazingly, Jimbo's squad has #1, #2, #3, and #4 all on it's itinerary this season (already having lost to #1 Clemson).  Now obviously the SEC will cannibalize itself to some degree but that's still a terrifying gauntlet, and it makes this one a must-win.  Auburn does have a win over a good Oregon team- a win it had NO business getting.  However, Oregon and Sparty seem to be dueling every week to take over the "Clemsoning" role in college football.  Should the Tigers manage another miraculous escape it may very well be another charmed season for them, but I can't see it happening on the road under the watchful eye of the 12th man.  Time to start justifying that $75 mil Jimbo!  Aub: 20--TAMU: 26

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Are the Irish going to do this to us again? The recipe is clear: win the one tough game on the schedule, sleep walk through a bunch of crap, make the playoff, get waxed by Clemson.  The Georgia game this year is 'between the hedges' at Sanford so I'm guessing no.  Georgia is interesting in that they've been mildly impressive in their first games but against the literal sisters of the poor.  I wonder if they're worth the hype.  I think they'll be good enough on the ground to steamroll the Irish, but I just don't have any faith in Notre Dame.  Sure, they'll have a nice 9 win year, but I cannot think of them in the same breath of the Powered Elite anymore.  Let's be honest, can anyone envision a team outside of Clemson, Bama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, or LSU winning the whole thing? Contender knocks out pretender.  Time for the Dawgs to feast.  ND: 17--UGA: 31 
Hoying: Notre Dame is something of a national punchline considering how they've looked in their last 2 national championship/playoff appearances. But what if the Irish were Actually Pretty Good last year and Clemson was just at another level entirely? It's not like Alabama was able to put up any better of a fight against the Tigers a week later in the title game. People like to complain that the Irish don't have to win a conference to make the playoff, but it's not like their schedule is any easier than any other Power 5 contender. For every cupcake like Florida State or USC on the docket, there's a tough matchup against a Northwestern or a Syracuse. And this year, the defense looks fine, and the offense too, as long as they don't have to run the ball. How is Georgia's run defense...oh (5th in the nation). How's their scoring defense...ah (3rd in the nation). Maybe I shouldn't overthink this. Georgia is still really good, and they're at home, and that's about it. Closer than the experts think, but with the same outcome. ND: 21--UGA: 27
Schweinfurth: Which team has more talent? Georgia. Which team has a QB? Georgia. Ian Book looked pitiful the last two weeks. Where is this game being played? Athens. The deck is stacked up against the Domers for this one. The depth of talent just isn't there. Look at Notre Dame's track record against top teams not TTUN and it is just sad. Dawgs all day. ND: 14--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  To be fair to both teams in this one, I think ND isn't quite as bad this year as their recent reputation suggests, and UGA may not be quite as good.  That said, UGA would likely have been favored by nearly double-digits had this matchup occurred last season, and ND just hasn't made up that much ground yet.  Ian Book hasn't looked quite up to snuff either, and unless they're saving a TON of stuff for this one (CC: Ryan Day vs. Cinci), I fear the superior southern talent will eventually carry the day.  UGA pulls away late.  ND: 20--UGA: 35

Miami RedHawks @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Another day, another Ohio team to fall by the wayside.  Not much to say here as this shouldn't be an issue in the slightest.  Ohio State is truly firing on all cylinders now.  Fields, Dobbins, Olave, Hill,...pick your poison.  Miami's coach mentioned this game is like at recess where the opponent gets the first 85 picks....he's not wrong.  I don't expect to see the starters end much more than a half.  Chase Young will continue to dominate defensively.  I need to see continued growth out of the LBs and secondary.  They have been leaps and bounds better this year compared to last, but the only chance for the Redhawks is to dink, dunk, dodge, dip, duck, dive, and dodge down the field.  I anticipate a little frustration, but no real issue.  This is a game in which the coaches will be tested.  How do you keep the athletes focused on today's challenge.  I expect Day to refer to the FAU game in which the foot came off the gas after the initial barrage.  Bucks big unless Big Ben faked that injury to come back to college....the Bucks slightly less big.  Miami: 10 -- OSU: 55
Hoying: Cincinnati may be the hot (okay, barely lukewarm) team now, but historically it's been the RedskinsHawks that have held down the strong #2 spot in the Buckeye state. And strangely, this group has very rarely headed up to Columbus to take on our beloved Bucks: this will be just the teams' 6th meeting in the last 115 years, with the last matchup kicking off the Urban Meyer era (and his opening 24-game win streak) back in 2012. What should we expect this time? Well, Ohio State has never lost to Miami (this Miami, anyway), and beat the RedHawks 56-10 in that aforementioned 2012 game. That's pretty good, but I'm hoping for something a bit more like the first time these teams met, back in 1904, when OSU won 80-0. And that might happen, as Miami may be the worst non-Rutgers (heck, we might not even need that qualifier) team that Ohio State will see this year. They can't move the ball and they can't stop anyone else from doing the same. That UC team that the Bucks steamrolled 42-0 a couple of weeks ago? It turned right around, let Miami hang around for a half, then blew their doors off for their 14th straight win in that rivalry (sounds like another rivalry I know). If we can combine the FAU start with the Indiana finish, 81-0 might not be out of the question. MU: 6--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: There isn't much to break down here. This is a name your score and don't get hurt game. I hope Dobbins and Fields only see the field for the first half and let Hoak and Chugs fight for the backup spot the rest of the day. Defensively, this should just be a FAU style game of all base defense. MU: 14--OSU: 59
Seeberg:  First off, RIP to Hopalong Cassidy, 1955 Heisman Trophy winner who led Woody Hayes' squad as a junior to his first of 5 national titles.  He left OSU in 1955 as the school's all time leader in rushing yards, all-purpose yards and even scoring.  Now, to far more trivial matters, the game tomorrow.  To begin the 2019 campaign I was my usual, cautiously pessimistic self.  Two dominant performances over respectable teams later?  I'm changing my tune.  The rest of the country appears to be as well.  The Bucks opened a whopping 37-point favorite over Miami, and that line has actually gone UP to 39 points since.  Even the Redhawks own coach acknowledges they have little hope, likening the game to a schoolyard recess game in which one team has "the first 85 picks".  Honestly, that analogy may not be too far off.  When even your head coach is resigned to his fate, you can expect a game that's ugly to start, ugly at the end, and lots of hideous in between.  Enjoy your 25 minutes off in the second half, Fields, Dobbins and Co.  Miami: 3--OSU: 56

Upset Special
Draper: Tennessee over Florida
Hoying: USC over Utah
Schweinfurth: Colorado over ASU
Seeberg: Air Force over Boise State

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Grading the Bucks: Week 3 -- Indiana

Another week, another beatdown.  Very short (late) write-up this week because we had another nearly flawless performance.

Offense: A
MVP: J.K. Dobbins (RB)
This just wasn't fair.  Yeah, there was a little struggle early on, but very minor.  The Buckeye's had their way with the hapless Hoosiers.  Normally, Olave and Fields would be the highlights but Dobbins was fantastic.  The TD run was textbook and showed that this team is ready for any challenge.  Chris Olave continues to impress me in all phases weekly.  Look out for Master Teague in the future of this Buckeye backfield.  He looked great.

Defense: A
MVP: Chase Young (DE) and Damon Arnette (CB)
I'm the furthest person in the world from a Damon Arnette supporter in general, but I'll give credit when he has a good game a stellar play.  The 96 yards to the house on a pick six in which he baited the QB into the throw was beautiful.  In case you haven't heard the call, here it is .  He stayed in school!  Chase Young is a locked and loaded top 5 pick in the 2020 NFL draft (barring injury).  Once again, the quick strike offense gave the Bullets a little trouble.  It will be interesting how they fair against a more competent offense, but they are currently doing everything they need to do to show monstrous growth from last year's dumpster fire.

Special Teams: B+
MVP: Chris Olave (WR)
Another blocked punt for Olave (see Michigan 2018) has this unit on absolute fire.  The downgrade is for the missed chip shot field goal early on which simply can't happen.  Momentum and setting the tone are crushed when a drive (particularly an early one) yields nothing.

Coaching: A
What is there to say here? Dominant plan and execution.  Props to Day and Co. for keeping the team focused and prepared.

Overall: A
Huge road win that shows this team is going to be a factor in the playoff race all year.  Dominant in all phases.  It was an overmatched opponent, but they performed as they should have.  Keep it rolling.