Week 14--Rivalry Week

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    40-18    (4-9 upset)
2) Hoying               39-19   (1-10 upset)
3) Draper                38-20     (3-10 upset)

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: Huge implications in the Iron Bowl. I hear every talking about the first top 5 matchup in this 'storied' rivalry...while surprising, this doesn't do wonders for the argument of 'best' rivalry.  Give Auburn credit for a phenomenal turnaround under Gus Malzahn, but they have one win of note (TAMU).  The miracle at Jordan-Hare crushed my pick chances, but reinforces my belief in a strong Bama win.  Saban's squad seems to shine in the spotlight games and limp through the layups.  YJ Yeldon will run all over the Tiger defense and the Tide will pressure Nick Marshall into enough mistakes to keep the train rolling.  Cam Newton ain't walkin through that door.  Sorry Bucks.  Bama: 27--AU: 13
Hoying: Earn your title, Tide. The debate isn't settled as to whether Ohio State or Florida State has the tougher overall path to 13-0 this season, but neither faces the murderer's row Alabama has to deal with this week and (possibly) the next. Back in September, we picked Auburn-LSU as an afterthought, the token fourth game. None of us could have foreseen that tilt providing Auburn's only loss to date. What a difference not having Gene Chizik makes. The Auburn offense has roared to life behind dual-threat QB Nick Marshall, but he's developed as more of a runner than a passer as the season has progressed. The Tide defense has been slowly choking opponents all season long, only cracking against...the other dual-threat QB they faced. Nick Marshall isn't Johnny Manziel, but with the friendly Jordan-Hare crowd behind him, he'll do just enough to pull off the upset. Bama: 27--AU: 28
Schweinfurth: It's weird but the numbers are actually against Alabama winning this game.  If I remember correctly, Nick Saban has never beaten a 10 win Auburn team.  Well coming into this game, Auburn is 10-1.  Alabama has problems with mobile quarterbacks and Auburn seems to have found Cam Newton lite in Nick Marshall.  I know all of this is stacked against 'Bama and my heart says that Auburn will do Ohio State (and the rest of the college football world) a favor and roll the Tide.  My brain says Bama is better.  Bama: 24--AU: 21
Seeberg:   Disclaimer:  I want Auburn to win this game with every fiber of my being.  Florida State’s schedule is too soft the rest of the way, so an Alabama slip is virtually OSU’s only chance to get into the BCS title game.  That aside, this is not a good match-up for Auburn.  Auburn runs the ball, ‘Bama stops the run; classic strength against strength.  ‘Bama’s weaker on pass D, but not tip-the-ball-straight-to-a-WR-on-4^th-and-18 weak.  If Auburn can force an early turnover or two and get a lead, they may be able to shorten the game and keep it interesting.  In the end, however, ‘Bama will score touchdowns and limit Auburn to a couple of field goals, allowing the Tide to, regrettably, pull away late.  Bama: 35--AU: 20

Clemson Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Draper: Can the Tigers keep the streak of vanquishing SEC foes going?  Clemson has had 2 games of note--squeaking out a win against a fully-healthy UGA and getting run off the field vs. the Noles.  The Gamecocks haven't lived up to expectations but that will happen when your best player can easily be taken out of the game via double-team/scheme.  Connor Shaw vs. Tajh Boyd...who fails less.  I don't think the Cocks have enough on offense to keep up.  I'm hoping that Clemson keeps it going with standout wide receiver Sammy Watkins because it hurts the SEC (and ESPN narrative) and helps the Noles.  Huge game in an underrated rivalry for Dabo and the Tigers.  Clem: 38--SoCar: 24
Hoying: Is there a more overrated team in the country than Clemson? The opening win over Georgia was nice, although it hasn't matured well. Other than that, the schedule has left something to be desired. Nothing like a win over Missouri over UCF stands out on Clemson's schedule. South Carolina's been winning ugly, but they've been winning. Now that Connor Shaw is back behind center for Cocky, the Tigers will have more of a problem stopping a balanced South Carolina attack. Tajh will be terrific, but Clemson will fall short. Clem: 27--SoCar: 31
Schweinfurth: South Carolina has slowly creeped up this rankings after a sluggish start to the season.  Clemson has held on to a sure BCS berth behind Sammy Watkins and Tajh Boyd.  I honestly believe that the SEC is severely over valued this year (especially the east).  With that said, I expect a big day out of Boyd and more useless talk about Jadavion Clowney.  Clem: 45--SoCar: 35
Seeberg:  It’s official, the world is ending:  The cheapest Clemson/South Carolina tickets are going for more than twice as much as the cheapest OSU/TTUN tickets on a ticket brokerage site.  Find your bomb shelters now.  Clemson has quietly snuck back near the top five, primarily because they’ve been beating a lot of nobodies since getting waxed by FSU.  Also amazingly, South Carolina’s vaunted defense is actually allowing more points per game than OSU.  “But the SEC is SO tough they can’t help it!”- every SEC fan.  Yeah, that 28-spot that SEC-bottom feeder Kentucky scored on them really makes me trust the Gamecock defense.  If UK can score 28 at South Carolina, Clemson will score more, and it will be enough to win.  Clem: 41--SoCar: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Johnny Football...my how the mighty has fallen.  What a face plant on Saturday in a huge moment. Mizzou has it on the table for this Big 12...er...SEC showdown.  The Tigers are a team that simply takes care of their business without fanfare.  The Aggies will score with a return of Johnny Manziel 'greatness' but the A&M defense is a total sieve.  Maty Mauk/James Franklin (whoever is the starter) will keep step for step with TAMU.  The difference is the Tiger defense which will get one stop and take the shootout on the way to the SEC Championship.  TAMU: 38--Mizzou: 41
Hoying: If not for James Franklin's injury against Georgia, this game may have decided the all-SEC QB in a stacked conference. Thankfully, Franklin and Manziel will still get the chance to go head-to-head, but the game is going to suuuuuuck. Remember LSU's dismantling of A&M a week ago? Use that as a starting point, add a better opposing quarterback and a much better defense, and you get a Missouri beatdown. Don't expect the Tigers to blink at home with an SEC East title within their grasp. TAMU: 17--Mizzou: 48
Schweinfurth: My goodness did the Aggies look horrible last week.  Les Miles must keep some sort of Johnny Football kryptonite in his pocket for those games. James Franklin kept the Tigers chugging on all cylinders last week and that offense has been a nightmare for the mighty SEC defenses.  I definitely expect this game to devolve into an old fashioned Big 12 shootout.  TAMU: 38--Mizzou: 42
Seeberg:  At the start of the season, a lot of people probably assumed this game would have SEC West title implications.  SEC East?  Not so much.  James Franklin is back for Mizzou (taking over for Kenton-bred backup Maty Mauk) and that’s bad news for an A&M defense that gives up over 30 a game.  Incidentally, does anyone remember that A&M and Mizzou joined the conference just two years ago and everybody thought they would be cannon fodder?  Perhaps the SEC isn’t the gauntlet we all perceive it to be.  In any event, onto the title game for Mizzou.  TAMU: 27--Mizzou: 42

UCLA Bruins @ USC Trojans
Draper: This one is for Coach O.  A win here would make it really hard to let him go.  The Trojans have been playing really good football lately and no one is noticing.  Beating Stanford (but were they playing Stanford football?) was huge when the Cardinal had everything on the line.  The Bruins, on the other hand, have limped down the stretch.  I'll go with the hot hand and the Trojans re-institute the football monopoly in LA.  UCLA: 20--USC: 24
Hoying: Don't call it a comeback, but USC has recovered nicely from the cancer that plagued their program for three and a half seasons. The Trojans are on a roll, winners of their last 5, which included a nice home win over a very good Stanford team. UCLA is no slouch, either, but they haven't impressed down the stretch, scraping by Arizona and Washington and falling to Arizona State. This game will come down to which quarterback can have success. Both Brett Hundley and Cody Kessler are superb slingers, but Hundley has to face a tough Trojan D, while Kessler will have a little more room for error. Fight on. UCLA: 20--USC: 27
Schweinfurth: I really know nothing about these two teams other than Lane Kiffin was a terrible coach and Ogeron has that team going good again.  Other than Keith Price, I know nothing about UCLA.  USC is at home? Good enough for me.  UCLA: 17--USC: 21
Seeberg: This is likely Ed Orgeron’s last game as USC’s head coach, which is a shame, given how well he has revived the life-support squad he inherited from Lane Kiffin.  He seems to have galvanized a pretty talented team, and they should send him out with a win against their in-city rivals.  The Bruins go as Brett Hundley goes, and USC’s defense will give him fits.  UCLA: 16--USC: 27

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: This is a ranked matchup but.... Notre Dame has been taking care of business lately, but Stanford was recently given a shot in the arm thanks to the choke job by the Ducks.  This isn't a conference game, but now that they have the Rose Bowl back on the horizon, I expect a focused team on the Farm vs. a historical contender.  The Cardinal defense should make Tommy Rees's life a living hell while the running game churns up a solid win over a ranked team.  If they play 'Stanford football', do they jump OSU? ND: 13--Stan: 31
Hoying: Let's play the road and home game. Notre Dame on the road: 2-2, beating terrible terrible Purdue and Air Force, and losing at bleh Michigan and bleeeeh Pitt. Stanford at home: 6-0, beating Arizona State, Washington, UCLA, and Oregon. Uh-oh. ND: 17--Stan: 27
Schweinfurth: Again, two teams I have paid next to no attention to.  Stanford's better, I do know that much.  ND: 10--Stan: 19
Seeberg:  #25 Notre Dame at #8 Stan…wait, Notre Dame is ranked again?  Granted, they do have a W over Michigan State and another one over Arizona State, but this team is just not that good.  Stanford is likely pretty angry after USC took away their PAC-12 (it’s still difficult to refrain from calling it the PAC-10) title hopes, as well as their slim hopes to squeeze into the national championship.  Further, the Cardinal does not want a repeat of last year’s OT loss which is why this game will not be nearly close enough for that to be an issue for the dancing tree.  Stan: 31--ND: 10

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North
Draper: Ah....The Game is here.  Tough to get excited with the struggles in Ann Arbor, but there will be no lack of motivation.  Urban has the boys locked onto TSUN with laser focus.  Michigan is in a tailspin, but will certainly put up a fight...it won't be enough.  Gardner will be on the ground courtesy of Bosa, Spence, and Co. while Shazier cleans up.  The OSU secondary will give up too much (as we've come to expect), but the offense should have a field day.  Expect 300+ on the ground as the passing game is being left by the wayside.  Herman will try to get Braxton going with the passing game, but it won't work until he starts utilizing some quick slants and screens.  The deep ball is there but Braxton has been hesitant to throw vertically--preferring to trust his feet.  Hopefully, he can develop the confidence over the next 3 games/year.  Bucks roll. OSU: 51--TSUN: 31
Hoying: There's always a quickening of the heart when I see the Scarlet and Gray take the field against the Maize and Blue. Unfortunately, that won't happen this year (stupid all-white uniforms) but The Game is a HUGE deal nonetheless. No matter how hapless the Wolverines are, this is always the most important game of the season. Fortunately, the Buckeyes seem to get this, and there's no chance of a look-ahead to that other northern team. As Tony Gerdeman at TheOzone pointed out, the team that wins the rushing battle has won the last 12 iterations of the rivalry. Does anyone see Devin Gardner, Derrick Green, and Fitzgerald Toussaint outperforming Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde, and Dontre Wilson? Really? OSU: 45--TSUN: 13
Schweinfurth: We have finally arrived at The Game.  For some reason I have been having flashbacks to the 90's.  Visions of Desmond's Heisman pose and Tim Biakabatuka have been haunting my dreams all week.  So much failure, that decade.  Then I look at the sideline and see Urban Meyer, who ownes (pwns?) in rivalry games.  The man takes these games personally and it shows in the way his teams play.  It also helps that the Silver Bullets' defensive line is full of studs versus an offensive line that operates as a sieve.  In a way I feel for Gardner (but not really).  At least he will have some friends in the backfield.  And by friends I mean Noah Spence and Joey Bosa charging with bad intentions.  On offense Ohio State has this Braxton Miller guy along with the wrecking ball that is El Guapo.  Ohio State hasn't won by more than 11 points at that POS stadium since 1962.  Throw that one out the window and bring on the Spartans!!!  
OSU: 60--TSUN: 14 (with negative rushing yards)
Seeberg:  OK OSU fans, if you were born after about 1991, you may not understand this, but Buckeye faithful tend to get nervous around this time of year, particularly when we have the objectively superior team.  Our dominant 90s squads routinely underperformed against TSUN, and it ultimately got Cooper fired.  In a 4-year span we had a Heisman winner in Eddie George and TWO first overall draft picks in Big Daddy Dan Wilkinson and Orlando Pace.  In that span from 1993-96, OSU went just 1-3 against TSUN.  Tressel changed all of that with his stellar 9-1 record; that one blemish?  Ten years ago, at the big house, and I was in attendance.  I am going up to Ann Arbor for the second time ever this weekend, so I sincerely hope it wasn’t my fault a decade ago.  As for the game itself?  A LOT of things have to go wrong for Ohio State to lose (turnovers, injuries, a cameo by Batman at QB for TSUN).  A few of them will go wrong, but not enough of them to stop the Buckeye train.  Onto MSU unblemished.  OSU: 38--TSUN: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Pittsburgh over Miami (FL)
Hoying: Washington State over Washington
Schweinfurth: Oregon State over Oregon
Seeberg:  Arizona over Arizona State
(Heads up: Carolina is favored over Duke)

Top 25 rankings, Heisman Ballots, and BCS Projections

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6. Clemson
7. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma State
9. South Carolina
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. Wisconsin
13. Arizona State
14. UCF
15. LSU
16. Fresno State
17. Northern Illinois
18. Oregon 
19. Louisville
20. Oklahoma
21. USC
22. Duke
23. UCLA
24. Cincinnati
25. Texas A&M


Draper Heisman Ballot (This is over barring charges being filed--gap between 1 and 2 is huge)
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Andre Williams (RB--BC)--Can't ignore the numbers and everyone else shooting themselves in foot
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
(Next up: Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU))

Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State

Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Auburn
6. South Carolina
7. Stanford
8. Arizona State
9. Baylor
10. UCF
11. Clemson
12. Missouri
13. Michigan State
14. Wisconsin
15. Oklahoma
16. Northern Illinois
17. Notre Dame
18. LSU
19. USC
20. Oregon
21. Fresno State
22. UCLA
23. Louisville
24. Texas
25. Duke

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Ryan Shazier (LB--OSU)

Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State

Schweinfurth Top 10
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6.Oklahoma State
7. Baylor
8. Clemson
9. Michigan State
10. Oregon

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jamies Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Andre Williams (RB--BC)

Schweinfurth BCS Projections

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Fresno State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. UCF
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs.Alabama

Grading the Bucks--Week 13: Indiana

Offense: B+
42 points is nice, but the Hoosier defense is atrocious.  This should have been much, MUCH worse.  I know the weather sucked, but Braxton's passes have been poor of late.  In general, I've not been thrilled with Miller's play, especially the propensity to fumble.  This HAS to improve (I'm shocked it's not a higher point of focus). Hyde was a normal beast and became the first Urban Meyer running back to cross the 1000 yard barrier...in 8 games.  Ride the horse, but the passing game needs to be a threat, especially against the Spartans.  Dantonio would have no qualms stacking the box against us.

Defense: B+
The defense held a better than people know IU offense to 14 which is no easy task.  However, it was the way they gave it up that concerns me.  When the team was focused, they played quite well, but the second half showed me a team that had checked out.  Yeah, the game was over, but you play until the clock reads 0:00.  Shoutout to Ryan Shazier and his monster performance--he was excellent and deserves his latest accolade of Butkus finalist.  I'm still concerned with the DBs playing such soft coverage but I don't see that hurting us until the bowl game.

Special Teams: A
All I really remember was a blocked punt by Roby (which I saw coming at the snap).  Other than that, no missed kicks or good returns.  Woo special teams!

Coaching: C
OK, Urban.  The game was over early in the second half.  WHY IN THE WORLD IS YOUR STAR QUARTERBACK IN A SNOWY GAME? People in Columbus need to get it through their skulls that style points don't matter.  If OSU wins out, they'll play in the Rose Bowl or Championship Game if Bama/FSU falter.  That's it.  That's the story.  Also, there was no reason to 'get that trick play on film'.  Braxton and Kenny on the field together is nice, but why not spring it on TSUN? The surprise factor is better than the 'prep for it' factor.  Oh yeah, Braxton had a wide open TE and chose to somersault into the endzone and land on his head....woof.  I get not wanting to handle his QB with kid gloves, but those plays/decisions were just detrimental to the team.

Overall: B+
Another game, another blowout win.  Onto That School Up North.  The season has officially started now GO BUCKS! BEAT BLUE!