Friday, August 30, 2019

Week 1: Joey Freshwater Rides Again

Hooray! The offseason is finally...already over at the time we're writing this, thanks to a bizarre schedule putting two actual games on the schedule a week before games begin in earnest. And what oddities they were, especially Hawaii's thrilling last-second tackle of Arizona's Khalil Tate a yard before he was able to dive into the end zone to tie the game. I'm sure that finish didn't trigger PTSD in any of the Let's Go Bucks prognosticators. Looking to this week's games, it's hard to tell how significant they are without knowing how these teams will end up, but the slate overall looks pretty weak. Enjoy an appetizer before a couple of more interesting games next week.

Oregon Ducks vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: Enter the rematch of the 2011 BCS National Championship, but the better quarterback is in the green this time.  There is a ton of hype around Justin Herbert and the Ducks breaking back into resurgence once more, but do we really trust the Pac12 to do anything? Auburn is completely green at QB but the defense is stout.  Usually, early season matchups favor the defense (see Bama for the last 10 years) as the offenses haven't figured it out.  Add that to the fact that it's another SEC vs. Pac12 (of Big 12 or B1G or ACC) kickoff classic in their backyard (kind of) and I feel like I've seen this before.  Start those annoying SEC chants while it's really just Pac12 being Pac12. Ore: 17--Aub: 24
Hoying: I hate week one write-ups because I never have anything relevant to say about either team, having not seen them in action yet. So let's dig into some not-so-ancient history instead. These teams have played exactly once, in the 2011 BCS National Championship Game. In that matchup, Oregon went blow for blow with Cam Newton before Auburn kicked a last second go-ahead FG from the 1 yard line. Oregon hasn't been close to a national championship since (yes, I know what you're thinking, and no, no they weren't). The Ducks are on a bit of an upswing, sniffing a double digit win season last year and winning (I guess, technically) the Redbox Bowl over Michigan State. Meanwhile Auburn has continued their steady diet of "I guess they're pretty good" under Gus Malzahn after capturing lightning in a bottle in 2013. Neither of these teams is a threat to make any real noise this year. I should just go back and write about Miami vs. Florida instead and pretend I don't already know the result. Ore: 20 -- Aub: 28
Schweinfurth: I am really not sure what to think of this game. Personally, I don't have high hopes for either of these two teams. Yes, the Ducks have a good QB in Justin Herbert but I am just not sold with the program. It's been in a tailspin since Chip Kelly stopped receiving recruiting help bolted for the NFL. Auburn is in much the same place, I just don't believe in the program, especially since they stopped paying for transfer QBs via church donations Alabama decided to turn into the program of death in the SEC. Auburn has a decent defense and this is a long trip for the Ducks to make east. I'll take Auburn at home, but it'll be close and sloppy. Ore: 21--Aub: 24
Seeberg:  Though obviously things are always hazy at the start of the season, this matchup seems to pit strength vs. strength.  Oregon returns a top 5 QB who would've been selected in the first round had he gone to the draft last season, but Auburn has a large and talented D-line that anchors a solid group.  Oregon looked impressive at the start of last year before an all-time collapse against Stanford that likely sent shockwaves through the rest of the Ducks' season and they also struggled on the road.  Assuming any/all of that carries over season to season, the second best team in Alabama will get a win to make them feel relevant for a few extra weeks while the Pac-12 goes all Happy Gilmore during his hockey tryouts.  "Better luck next year".  Ore: 18 -- Aub: 27

Florida Atlantic Owls @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Lane Train comes rumbling in to the Shoe on Alumni Band day with hopes of upsetting the new head coach in Columbus. Remember when it seemed like Kiffikins might have a team 2 years ago and he was prepping to explode on the scene? And then he faceplanted? That was a fun year.  Some things change but many things stay the same the world keeps on spinnin'.  I'm excited for the Ryan Day era and I think the Bucks fire out of the shoot early.  The biggest question is whether the defense is better than the soggy turd we saw next year.  Even a slight improvement would make a HUGE difference.  Fields has some struggles in his first action, but it doesn't matter as Dobbins steals the show as the Bucks continue the nation's longest opening day winning streak. FAU: 20 -- OSU: 55
Hoying: Whew, thank goodness we finally know who the starting QB will be for our beloved Bucks. Not that it really matters; it's an Ohio State QB running a Ryan Day offense against a Group of Five team. Justin's going to have a Fields day with that setup. No, the real worry remains on the other side of the ball. After fielding the worst Buckeye defense in a generation, how will Coach Day respond? Will we see something resembling a linebacker this year? Will the DBs see a ball before the WR leaps over them and snags it? New Co-DC Jeff Hafley says that turnovers will be a focus this year. Which, as we learned in 2006 and 2016, works really great until it doesn't. What of our opponent? Lane Kiffin burst onto the scene at FAU in 2017 and finished with a 10 game winning streak and a bowl victory. Then they missed out on the postseason entirely last year. So, who knows? All we can say is that despite the lack of premier programs filling out OSU's nonconference slate this year, at least we get a couple of interesting coaches to visit the Shoe (Coack Fick makes his return next week). Buckeye fans probably remember Coach Kiffin best from his inexplicable strategy as Alabama's OC of not feeding the ball to Derrick Henry when he was gashing us in the 2015 Sugar Bowl. Don't expect this game to be that close. FAU: 17--OSU: 48
Schweinfurth: From all of the press conferences and staff retention/hires Ryan Day has made, I think Ohio State got the right guy. You can tell Day has a very sharp and quick mind when it comes to offensive football. Now did he make the right hires on defense? I think so. From all accounts, it sounds as if the linebackers won't be playing as stand up linemen this year. This is probably the most important change. I'm not going to say the Bullets are back until they aren't getting gashed but there are tons of athletes and letting them play free will help for sure. The FAU Fighting Freshwaters Owls will be a good test for this defense. Not that they will win, but Kiffin will stretch the field and force the Bucks to be sound. I think the offense will be fine. The o-line is talented but unproven. Watch out if these guys are nasty and pave the way for a motivated Dobbins. I expect Fields to run a bit, but I'm sure he's on a pitch count this week with regards to hits. Let's have some fun and get back into football mode. Go Bucks! FAU: 20--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah, sweet sweet, well, almost fall.  Another 7.5 months without college football has come to a close.  Don't let the Miami vs. Florida ratings fool anyone into thinking those two programs are nationally relevant again, we all just wanted to scratch that itch and get our fix.  Our beloved Buckeyes kick off the season against what is likely an underrated FAU squad, which is remarkable given their headline-inducing (or producing) head coach.  Obviously what's on every Buckeye fans' mind is two-fold:  What do we have in Justin Fields, and can the defense be, you know, NOT awful this year please?  Like gave-up-half-a-hundred-to-Maryland awful? *shudders*.  The answer won't be known right away, but the last time we started an unknown at QB was J.T. Barrett in 2014.  That seemed to work out, eh?  Personally I figure if Dobbins gets 23-28 touches per game and our D-line can give Chase Young even a handful of 1-on-1 chances we will be more than okay.  Nothing overly flashy, nothing all that bad, just a solid W and the chance to go 2-0.  Welcome back everybody!  FAU: 17 -- OSU: 41 

Upset Special
Draper: USF over Wisconsin
Hoying: Liberty over Syracuse
Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Stanford
Seeberg:  Eastern Washington over Washington