Week 4: Turtley Enough for the Turtle Club

Standings:

1.) Draper 9-3 (0-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 8-4 (1-2 upset)
2.) Hoying 8-4 (0-3 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 7-5 (0-3 upset)

After a sleepy nonconference slate, the big games begin in earnest with a full schedule of ranked matchups across America's two top leagues.

Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper:  Is Texas back? They’ve looked pretty pedestrian for 8 of the 12 quarters they’ve played this year (no one cares about Texas St.). The Vols looked solid, but it is still Tennessee.  They’re usually good for one big win a year, and this is clearly the moment (if it happens).  The Texas defense led by Colin Simmons is quite stout, but this will be a true road test (only one until November—seriously, Texas plays ONE road game before November!). I know next to nothing about the Vols, but this feels like it might be the one shot, one opportunity type game.  I don’t think Texas is unbeatable, and Arch was shaky enough at home.  Why not? Rocky Top steals a huge win on the back of turnovers before absolutely faceplanting down the stretch (as is tradition).  Tex: 23—Tenn: 24

Hoying: I have a sneaking suspicion that Texas is a bit overrated at #1. Sure, they have the season’s signature win so far, but they looked really bad for long stretches of that game. Then again, while the Horns are visiting a hostile environment, it’s not like they’re rolling into Columbus to play the Buckeyes again. After 2024’s miracle Playoff run (that ended in disaster), the Vols put up a pathetic 8-5 showing last year, culminating with a loss to Illinois. Texas’s schedule provides plenty of chances for a faceplant but I don’t expect the elder UT to provide much more than a speed bump. Tex: 27—Tenn: 20

Schweinfurth: Everyone is making a big deal about the noise at Neyland. Yes, it is a loud stadium, but you actually have to have a team to back it up. I do think Texas is a very good team. They played well against the Bucks, and it probably looks worse for the Bucks without the crazy bounces. I’m not sold on Tennessee. Win this and I’ll buy in, but the Horns win. Tex: 27—Tenn: 24

Seeberg: Lots of orange here on Saturday, but enough about the dignitaries. I do think Heupel has gotten the Vols back to respectable heights. That “next step” that was supposed to happen in the playoffs a couple years ago turned out to be a boot to the throat from our beloved Buckeyes. This year’s iteration on good old Rocky Top (woo) has a solid offense, as usual, but the defense gives up too many yards between the 20s. Arch showed his newfound red zone prowess against the Bucks and there’s no reason to believe Tennessee will be a stiffer defensive test. Burnt orange > highlighter orange (but those dark grays with that orange do look sweet). The real UT prevails. UT: 34—Tenn: 20

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: TTUN was 1 second* from losing in week 1, looked competent in week 2 vs OU (but that was certainly exposing Mateer), and struggled for a half against UTEP before blowing them out.  Iowa, on the other hand, has been steady old Iowa—blowing out the little sisters of the poor and squeaking by Iowa State.  I have no idea which version of these teams will show up.  I would be all in on Iowa to “Iowa” their way to a victory in the Big House, but the week 2 win over the Clones is concerning. I feel like this is going to be a super boring game in which one big play makes the difference.  The UM defense is quite good, and I feel like there’s enough explosive plays to keep scUM undefeated.  Iowa: 13—UM: 17
Hoying: I'm not one of the people that wants UM to come into Ohio Stadium undefeated. Sure, 2006 was nice, but I'd rather see Michigan ground into dust by the end of October than waiting to ruin their season late (and in the 12 or 24 team Playoff era, one devastating loss isn't enough anyway). So I'm always happy to see the opportunity for Michigan to lose. But Iowa has played one team with a pulse this year, and it took two 4th quarter field goals (i.e., the "Hawkeye Special") for them to overcome their in-state rivals. The Wolverines are finding...something...working with Bryce Underwood at QB, and the defense has been solid all season long. I don't see them losing until they have to face a high powered offense (one that won't play Michigan's game). Iowa: 9--UM: 17

Schweinfurth: Iowa is a better version of Western Michigan. Control the ball, play good defense. Oklahoma isn’t great and the Wolverines took advantage. I am not sold on Michigan, and I probably won’t until Underwood can actually read a defense. Iowa wins in a rock fight. Iowa: 14—UM: 9

Seeberg:  This game has a very similar feel to UM’s surprising win over the Sooners, with one glaring difference. See if you can spot it. It’s in Ann Arbor. Iowa has an excellent, disciplined defense (see: Venables/OU). Iowa has a mediocre offense (see: OU/Mateer). Iowa takes care of the ball on offense (see: literally anyone other than Mateer). No short fields is a problem for the winged helmets. Wonder if Sherrone can watch this L on probation? Iowa: 19—UM: 13

Mississippi Rebels @ Florida Gators

Draper: Welcome to the new expectations, Rebels.  Can Trinidad and Co. keep it rolling on the road? The Gators aren’t your Steve Spurrier/Urban Meyer Gators, but they do seem to be more competent than in years past.  The Swamp (when Gator Nation believes) is the toughest place in the country to play and I expect them to show out. The Rebels are absolutely the better team, but the environment on top of the return to Earth after the Lane Train makes this interesting.  I still lean Rebels, but I won’t be shocked if UF snags a huge home win.  Miss: 31—UF: 27
Hoying: Well I wasn't expecting THAT on the plains last week. The same Auburn team that struggled their way to 17 points against Baylor managed to rack up 39 against Florida. Good on Florida for outscoring them, but Lane Kiffin's fingerprints are still all over this Rebel offense that's put up 73 points in 2 ranked games so far. You're going to need to play defense to beat them and the Gators still aren't there yet under first year coach Jon Sumrall. I'll believe Florida is back when I see it. Miss: 38--UF: 27

Schweinfurth: That was such an emotional game last week for the Rebels. So much so, that I don’t know if they’ll be able to crank it back up this week. This one’s in the Swamp and not a fun place to play. This Florida team is better, but not great. I just think the emotional drop last week does the Rebs in. Miss: 28—UF: 35

Seeberg: Ah yes, the infamous “let’s get an SEC team into the 20s for another ranked vs ranked conference matchup!” Game, volume 1 of 2 this weekend alone. Barf. Then again, Florida is favored in this one? Why?? For allowing 39 points to an Auburn team that managed 17 against Baylor? I know Vegas knows infinitely more than I ever will, but I just don’t see it here. The Gators won’t get enough stops over four quarters. Miss: 34—UF: 24

Oregon Ducks @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: What are these teams? Oregon was the preseason darling, but faceplanting in Stillwater was a mystery (on top of their mediocre play in general –outside of Portland St.).  USC had tons of hope, but the defense has been the usual Lincoln Riley experience (Buttgers had them on the ropes for God’s sake).  This will be a litmus test for both teams. The winner is still alive in the playoff run, but the loser is in big, big, big trouble. A 2^nd loss for the Ducks is devastating with their schedule and a loss for the Trojans just feels like “same ol’ same ol’”.  If the Coliseum was a tough place to play, I’d think the Trojans would carry the day, but the way SC has limped through the season has me reverting to priors.  Give me the Ducks in a squeaker.  Ore: 31—USC: 30
Hoying: I was a bit surprised in the preseason when Oregon wasn't crowned under the "this year it's their turn" logic that astroturfed Penn State last season. Perhaps the conventional wisdom has grown a little wiser. Anyway, if you thought Florida's defense was bad, look away from the Ducks. Boise State got a few lucky bounces to stay with Oregon down the stretch but the Ducks got completely run through by Oklahoma State a week later. Beating Portland State 84-0 puts a nice number on the page but doesn't do much to assuage concerns that Oregon may be spiraling this season. A week ago I'd have believed USC was well primed to knock the Ducks off their perch (do Ducks perch?) until they struggled way too hard against bad bad Rutgers. We'll charitably call it a look-ahead game rather than sound the alarm on another lackluster USC defense. Then again, they couldn't really stop Louisiana the week before either...I don't know what to do with this one. The Oregon home field advantage has been as good as any team's during the Dan Lanning era, but they won't have it on their side this Saturday night. USC throws the first wrench into the anticipated Big Ten order this fall. Ore: 30--USC: 34

Schweinfurth: I have been laughing at the Ducks all season so far. They haven’t been out of a game, but they have looked like straight trash. USC isn’t exactly a world beater, but Oregon likes to keep in interesting. Lanning’s squad should bounce back here, but it comes down to the last drive again. Ore: 42—USC: 38

Seeberg: I know it’s early in the season so confusion is still rampant, but boy do I have NO idea what to make of this game. USC has looked good(?) so far but struggled, albeit literally ALL the way across the country, to put away Rutgers. Meanwhile, Dan Lanning’s regularly scheduled collapse was fast forwarded by three full months, inexplicably losing to a different OSU. Does Lincoln finally get a quasi-statement win in LA? Mestemaker is pretty mobile, seems to give the Ducks problems, and Maiava is definitely a notch better. I’m torn between overreacting to the Ducks’ loss and not being too stubborn to pick who we all thought was the better team in August. Regardless, expect a lot of points.  Heck with it. Odyssey was a hit. Go Trojans. Ore: 31—USC: 41

Illinois Fighting Illini @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Ah, everyone’s favorite rivalry that no one cares about. There were hopes in the preseason that the Illini would take a step forward….but alas, no.  Bielema’s squad has been super uninspiring.  There’s not really any aspect of the game in which I expect the Illini to take charge.  However, as we all know, Columbus is a mess and everything Buckeye football is DISASTROUS! They LOST a game! Kent State was only a 56 point win! Time to prep for next year…. Now, obviously, I am on Team R-E-L-A-X, BUT…there are some things that need cleaning up.  The short yardage failures from last year and this year thus far MUST improve.  Also, Sayin’s blindness in the middle of the field is infuriating (speaking as the person in C-deck last week screaming about how open Inniss was on 3^rd down in the middle of the endzone).  These are not the endtimes, but there is plenty of room for improvement.  Things I want to see: defense needs to dial up a little more pressure (more Pettijohn and Wilder please), Sayin needs to take some shots when open (to people other than 4—especially in the middle of the field), and the offensive line needs to man up and push people off the ball (especially in short yardage gotta have it situations).  It won’t be fixed in our first B1G match, but we need to see some positive movement.  Bucks roll, but let’s continue to get better.  Ill: 10—OSU: 48
Hoying: I try to look for the positives when watching Buckeye football. The team never plays any better in response to my criticism so I might as well enjoy what I'm seeing either way until the ref puts a phantom second back on the clock the clock hits zero. But despite walloping Kent State by 56 points, with the best per-play domination of any team playing last weekend, I didn't feel good watching it. The defense played well and broke out a few new wrinkles (keep Pettijohn on the field!) but the offense continued to struggle in short yardage situations to the tune of 1 third down conversion in 8 attempts, and two blown fourth downs. Sooner or later this team's going to need to get a yard when it really matters, and we haven't been able to do that consistently in the last 4 years with the exception of the magical 2024 Playoff run. The good news for now is that Illinois appears to have taken a significant step backward since last season. Other than star wideout (and Ohio native) Collin Dixon, the Illini don't have a ton of weapons. Last year Illinois wasn't able to get much of anything going until going up-tempo toward the end of the game, leaving Bret Bielema to lament not using tempo from the start. If he comes out guns blazing on Saturday, we could see an interesting clash of styles from Ohio State's, shall we say, more measured approach. But the Buckeyes can't afford to waste too many possessions, because they're heading to Kinnick next week for their first visit since Brian Ferentz's finest offensive performance. October is going to make or break this season, and the Bucks need to fix their problems. Now. Ill: 14--OSU: 38

Schweinfurth: I watched the Bucks game last week after hearing all the negative things. Yes there were issues on third and fourth down. However, I think Day has their attention. I won’t be surprised if Jacoby gets more RB snaps than Bo in this one. He just seems to run harder. I’d like to see more of Legend Bey and Chris Henry Jr. One of those guys needs to step up. The defense has been fine and only gave up points in super garbage time. Illinois will have their hands full. The turtle stays in Columbus. Ill: 7—OSU: 38

Seeberg: Amazing part about this game? Illinois lost to Duke, which is a quality loss, and it’s not even basketball season! Bert has Illinois up to basically "Wisconsin lite" standards after the debacle that was the last decade or so in Champaign. Obviously we need to see a better run game from our scarlet and gray and for the love of all that is good in the world can we get the TEs off the field please? They can’t catch or block this season. Spread-to-run and zone blocking should be the new marching orders. Oh, and 4. Lots of 4. To their credit, the Bucks have largely avoided sleepy starts this season that plagued the last couple of years, hope that continues as well. Ho hum 3-score W. Ill: 13—OSU: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Wake over Louisville
Hoying: Wisconsin over Penn State
Schweinfurth: USC over Bama
Seeberg: Iowa State over Utah

Week 3: Scrubbing the Sheets

Standings:

1.) Draper 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 5-3 (0-2 upset)
1.) Seeberg 5-3 (0-2 upset)

Buck up, Buckeye Nation. The last time Ohio State dropped game 2 against a big-name opponent, coming off a disappointing season-ending two game slide, wonderful things followed.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: Big 12 opens with a bang with ...Houston @Texas Tech....oh boy.  The Red Raiders looked to enter the season as the villains of CFB due to Soresby until Lane and TTUN asked them politely to 'hold my beer'.  Now, the Raiders have been somewhat of an after thought. I'm intrigued with Connor Weigman at Houston, but I'm not sure they have what it takes to storm into Lubbock at night and steal a win.  We know very little about these teams as the transfer portals are in full swing, but I like the home team to prevail in a tight conference opener.  Hou: 20--TT: 24
Hoying: How often do you get to do a common opponent analysis as early as week 3? Houston kicked off the season handling Oregon State with relative ease before Texas Tech escaped Corvallis with a 4th quarter comeback. The Tech offense has been in a bit of a stall to start the season, and they don't quite seem to have last year's punishing D-line to support them this year. Houston has been doing work on the ground this season, including good efforts by Texas A&M cast-off QB Connor Weigman (who is just a bit more mobile than his counterpart Will Hammond). This game should tell us a lot about whether last year's surprise 13-0 start by Texas Tech is a flash in the pan or a true new sustainable dynasty like Indiana (still won't ever not be weird). I don't think their defense is good enough this year to make it happen. Hou: 24--TTU: 20

Schweinfurth: I have only read a little bit about these teams. Both are not on my radar right now. A win here could put them back there, but I really don't know much. My gut says Houston, so let's go there. Hou: 28--TTU: 24

Seeberg: I realize it’s only week 3 and there are myriad questions about almost every team in the sport. That said, I genuinely have 0 idea if either of these teams is any good. Remarkably, they already have a common opponent, and both looked… meh(?) against the westernmost OSU, ultimately winning by two scores each. I expected the Red Raiders to be a little better on defense so far. That said, when it feels like a coin flip, go with the home team. UH: 20—TTU: 27

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 19

Louisiana State Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: I don't know how the game is going to go here...but it's going to be an ugly ugly scene in Oxford.  We saw the famous mustard bottles rain in Tennessee, but this seems far more dangerous for the visitors.  LSU absolutely rocked Clemson in week 1 but showed a few chinks in week 2 with the 'doubtful' Sam Leavitt.  Ole Miss is road tested against a good Louisville team (shoutout Lincoln Kienholz) but this is all about the narrative.  Honestly, LSU likely has the personnel edge, but the Grove will be a madhouse.  The bad blood isn't only with the fans, but also the players.  Their coach bailed on them as they went ham to make the semifinals.  The environment is going to be too much for LSU to handle (and I expect Lane might have to be escorted out before the game ends).  Ole Miss needs a few turnovers to help a weaker defense, but the crowd should provide.  Give me the Rebs.  Miss: 30--LSU: 28
Hoying: Well, we got to see LSU desecrate the desiccated husk of Clemson to open the season; can they match their performance on the road? A good rule of thumb back when old Lane was at Ole Miss was to fade the Rebs on any big road games. And now they're entering the hornets' nest; I don't even think the fans in Columbus this Thanksgiving weekend will be as angry as the Ole Miss faithful this Saturday night. And behind the arm of Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels may have just enough firepower to do something about it. Losing key defensive pieces like Prince Umanmielen to LSU won't help, but Pete Golding didn't sit idly by while Lane looted the store on the way out; Ole Miss brought in one of the nation's top transfer classes themselves. Between the shoulder chip factor and LSU QB Sam Leavitt's (nonexistent?) mystery injury, I think the student gets one over on the master to start the rivalry. Miss: 31--LSU: 30

Schweinfurth: I get there is a lot of hatred for Lane in this one. However, this dude left the cupboard bare. He didn't just take coaches, but players and staff too. I honestly don't think Ole Miss has the talent to hang here. Do I want Lane to get his ass beat? Yes. Will it happen here? No. Miss: 17--LSU: 35

Seeberg: Lane Bowl I. Has a lot more intrigue than the egg bowl these days anyway. I saw a post on social media about Kiffin that I’ll paraphrase: Lane belongs in a rare category of people that are extremely dislikable yet also objectively funny. Spot on. In any case, Lane’s newest team put belt to behind against Clemson on both sides of the ball. The Rebels can still score it, but giving up 38 to first-time starter Lincoln Kienholz and Louisville is a problem- and it will bite them this time. Tigers pull away in the second half. MISS: 27—LSU: 38

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals

Draper: SMU has a nice road win against FSU but the Noles have been on a nasty downward spiral for years.  The Cardinals, on the the hand, lost a close one to the aforementioned Rebels, but looked really good behind former Buckeye Lincoln Kienholz.  Papa Johns Stadium (is it still called that?) was going crazy and should show out for this one.  The Mustangs looked pretty lackluster in Doak and only won due to ineptitude on the other side of the ball.  I like Brohm's Cardinals to get a solid win to take control of 2nd place in the ACC pecking order.  SMU: 20--UL:31
Hoying: Of course, if I'm going to give Ole Miss so much credit, I can't very well dump on the team that pressed them 'til the buzzer in Oxford. Lincoln Kienholz has been one of the surprises of the young season, making a strong push for September Heisman, but he's got nothing on SMU spitfire Kevin Jennings, who heads up the nation's most formidable passing attack. You saw him squeak out a win against Florida State (who might just be horrible again) but he's going to have a score a bit more to keep pace with Louisville. That being said, if you can contain Kienholz, you can constrain the Cardinal attack. But SMU ain't 2023 Missouri. SMU: 24--UL: 31

Schweinfurth: I watched a bit of SMU and they were okay. I haven't set eyes on Louisville, but heard some good things. Not sure how much defense will be played here. My guess is the last team to have the ball wins. SMU: 35--UL: 38

Seeberg: Speaking of Lincoln, he gets another shot at a ranked team this weekend, this time at home against a less-formidable foe. Neither team runs it well, but Kienholz (the leading rusher of BOTH teams in this matchup) has legit dual-threat ability that will give the Mustangs fits. Chalk up another L for a bunch of horses in Kentucky. SMU: 20—UL: 31

Kent State Golden Flashes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Time to get right.  Buckeye Nation needs to R-E-L-A-X.  Last Saturday sucked....it may have even sucked worse than anything has sucked before, but most fans would have said a 1-point loss was understandable before the game.  It doesn't make it right, but the sky isn't falling.  This will be a very telling game as we get to see how Buckeyes decide the future of this squad.  I expect Day and Co. will have their heads on straight and focused on the future.  The new world of big boy CFB isn't undefeated seasons.  It's more like the NFL model in which you test, you improve, then let er rip in the playoffs.  Last year, everyone bemoaned the lack of adversity leading to some complacent losses at the end of the year...well? Here we go.  The Flashes have always sucked and they will continue to do so.  I think we're going to see more creativity in the distribution of the rock and the line will play much better (a lot easier without Colin Simmons.  Things to look for: Sayin calming down and staying in rhythm (unlike the 2nd half), consistent use of JJ (but not forcing the ball to him in triple coverage), better run blocking to improve the worst case runs (make sure we have 3 yards at worst...not -2), some defensive line pressure (needs to get more consistent outside of Kenyatta--hello, Wilder), better discipline in the LBs (let's see a little more Pettijohn as he had a nice game), and avoiding getting burnt like toast (only to turn into the craziest INT ever by McClain).  I trust the coaches.  Shutout time.  Kent: 0--OSU: 56

Hoying: A scant two weeks ago I asked a few prophetic questions about the 2026 Ohio State experience. How will the ball be distributed among the WR corps without a clear #2 option? How will the O-line make room for the running game, and does that include our newly minted captain QB? How many pieces in the secondary does it take to replace Caleb Downs, and what does that mean for getting pressure on the QB? I wasn't satisfied with the answers I got from the Ball State game, and the Bucks' deficiencies in all 3 cost them a very winnable game against Texas. Fortunately, this weekend's game against Kent State is the first in a couple of "get-right" games before making a trip to Iowa City. Maybe we need to see more Brock Boyd and Legend Bey on offense, and more Khary Wilder and Riley Pettijean on defense. Maybe we need to pull our tight ends off the field if they can't block outside zone worth a damn. Maybe...we need to pump the brakes on Connor Hawkins, he drilled his 48-yarder before gacking the potential game-sealer. It's tempting to write off any answers we get against the Golden Flashes as fool's gold, but I at least expect to see some unfamiliar looks this week, as Day likes to tinker when he has the cushion to do so. At any rate, I trust the coaches to have a better sense of what's happening on the field than the average fan (mostly because the average fan is only interested in RUNNING THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY). For now, just enjoy the free win. Kent: 0--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: I took away several things from that debacle last week. This Ohio State team is pretty good, just inexperienced in a few places. Also, Ryan Day hasn't learned from the past. Ultimately, that loss doesn't mean much. I think I had this team pegged around 10-2 heading into the playoffs. It's time to get mad and take it out on poor, defenseless Kent State. This one gets ugly early. How about bombs to Smith, big runs from Bo and Legend and a good defensive performance. It would be nice to get consistent pressure. Get out of this one healthy again and on to B1G play. Kent: 3--OSU: 49

Seeberg: Well here we are again, glorified scrimmage number two, sandwiching an inexplicable loss. Except it wasn’t. It followed an annoyingly predictable pattern. If you’re going to slow a game down and sit on leads, you at least have to have a good kicking game. Can we hire Tressel as a consultant who only recruits kickers and punters? Defensively, I need to see some aggression in this one. I appreciate the discipline of this squad- all of the Longhorns’ scoring drives needed a ton of plays- but the red zone magic is gone with all the losses to the NFL. Patricia needs to dial some things up and risk a big play or two (just not to Jim Knowles levels hopefully). On offense, I just need to see if Julian is actually aware that it’s legal to throw the ball between the hashes. Some chunk run plays would be nice too. And tempo maybe? The 2-minute drill last week may have been the best the offense has looked since 2024 against a real opponent. Get out fast, stay healthy, and get JJ the first of his all-time records. Kent: 10—OSU: 55 

Upset Special
Draper: WKU over IU
Hoying: Colorado State over BYU
Schweinfurth: FSU over Bama
Seeberg: West Virginia over Virginia

RUN THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY!!!

I am so tired of Ryan Day's bull crap.

I have never been so embarrassed to be an Ohio State fan as I was at 11:09 PM on Saturday night. Except, of course, for the closing seconds of any of Ryan Day's other collapses and near-disasters. Another late lead disappears against another top opponent as the offense fails to get anything going in crunch time.

And what's the common thread? What's the secret sauce to cooking up stinker after stinker in every  Ohio State game of consequence over the last 8 years? Ryan Day's calling card: the offense takes its foot off the gas in the second half. In particular, they fail to RUN THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY.

Don't believe me? Let's examine the facts.

On Saturday night in Austin, the Buckeyes took a 20-3 lead into half. Good lead but not insurmountable. Ryan, like he always does, blubbered some nonsense about a "four quarter game," like he knew the Buckeyes weren't going to come out of the half ready to bury Texas early. Even right after going after the Longhorns' throat just before half instead of settling for a 13-3 lead! The Buckeyes had been a veritable whirling dervish in the first half, racking up 20 points after reaching the red zone in all 5 first half drives. The second half? No touchdowns and just one lousy field goal, after failing to reach the red zone at all. You see what I mean? Consumed by fear! No killer instinct! No resolve to just say "screw it" and RUN THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY!

Let's look at what the Ohio State offense did on these eye-gouging drives.

Coming out of half, it was like Jim Tressel had descended from on high to put his down-to-the-wire white knuckling inhibitor back on the Buckeye O. Two straight runs to open the half before finally finding Jeremiah Smith to push the Buckeyes across midfield. And then, right back to killing the momentum with another run that only gained 3 yards. Sayin throws the ball away on second down (wasted play) and the Buckeyes fail to pick up all 7 yards they need on a mini-screen to Bo Jackson. How uncreative can you get? And then they PUNT. From plus territory! The Buckeyes were lucky Texas barely made it out of their own red zone after that and punted the ball right back to them, but the inevitable Day meltdown was beginning even if the scoreboard didn't show it.

Of course the only thing worse than punting is relying on the Ohio State kicking game (3-4 on FGs on Saturday by the way, good job costing us the game), which is what happened on the very next drive. All the Buckeyes did this whole drive was force the ball through the air! How predictable can this offense get with the game on the line? Another throwaway, a drop by Jeremiah, and FINALLY the Buckeyes hit a big play through the air to Smith down to the Texas 30. I mean, as big a play as you can expect from a second half Ryan Day offense, if it wasn't underthrown Smith might have scored. But that would have required Day to RUN THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY, which he must be contractually obligated not to do once the scoreboard ticks over to quarter 3. And of course that was as far as the Bucks got on this drive. Good luck finding the touchdown play here; on second down they caught the Longhorn defense completely flatfooted and tried to find McCuin running free for a TD. McCuin! Hello? Have you heard of throwing the ball to #4? Of course Sayin overthrew him and the Buckeyes settled for a field goal. The foot wasn't even off the gas now, it was slamming frantically on the brakes. 

The incompetence just spiraled from there. The Buckeyes' two next drives were three-and-outs, with a combined three incomplete passes. For Woody's sake! We don't need yards and points here, we need TIME OFF THE CLOCK! In case you forgot, Texas scored the game winning touchdown with only 25 seconds left in the game. What does this game look like if Day has the slightest inkling of a clue about second half clock management?

That brings us to Ohio State's final drive. Their final real drive, anyway, let's not say anything about that 2-play abomination the Bucks trotted out with 25 seconds and no timeouts left. The Buckeyes reach field goal range again and what do they do? On third down, they throw for Smith in the end zone! Can you imagine everything that could have gone wrong? A turnover, a holding penalty, a sack to take them out of field goal range, and Day goes for the jugular? Forget the gas pedal, it's been ripped out of the car at this point and we're running it with Fred Flintstone's feet.

I don't think the problem is fixable at this point. We've had Ryan Day for 7 years now and he has one measly National Championship to show for it among the innumerable big game chokes and multiple 2-loss seasons. Even the 2024 Playoff run was almost undone by Day's excruciating second half turtling. Yeah, everyone fondly remembers the Oregon game that Ohio State won by 20 (helps to score 7 points after halftime to put the game away, maybe take some notes for the future, Ryan), but the Buckeyes had a monster lead in the second half against Notre Dame, too, and taking their foot off the gas damn near cost them that game as well!

It's been a couple of years, so you might not remember, but the Buckeyes put up all of 13 points in the second half after ripping off 21 before halftime. Why? You guessed it. Day refused to RUN THE TOUCHDOWN PLAY. Their sole second half touchdown (in the third quarter, of course) was built off of a 70 yard non-TD run by Quinshon Judkins (who got caught from behind like Tre Henderson never would have, way to know your personnel, Ryan). Then Ryan Tressel showed his ugly head over the next three drives to let Notre Dame right back in it. The Buckeyes get an absolute gift of field position after stopping a Fighting Irish fake punt? Better kick a field goal after missing a wide open Carnell Tate in the end zone on third down. The next drive barely broke into Irish territory before Egbuka fumbled after a big catch-and-run. And then the pièce de résistance: a pathetic five play drive, killed after Howard couldn't hit #4 running free on 3rd and 3.  Four drives post-Quinshon. Zero touchdown plays. Someone  must have knocked Day over the head and dialed up 3rd-and-Jeremiah to clinch the game late, because that play looked nothing like the usual timid late-game fare served up by the Chokemaster in Chief.

Day has to go. Now. Maybe we can find someone with the courage to play for a win, like Dan Lanning or Steve Sarkisian.

Week 2: Texas Three-Step

Standings:

1.) Draper 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Hoying 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)

The schedule heats up for the Scarlet and Gray as they face their first of up to seven ranked opponents, in the 100 degree Texas summer. And the college football fandom had better savor this game because they're not going to see another one on this level for at least a couple of weeks.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Well, at least the whole world sees this losers for the scUM they are.  There may have been another second left, and I will give them credit for executing a flawless Hail Mary, but you can't be the "winningest team in CFB"* and rush the field after getting a win over a MAC school in highly questionable fashion.  Bryce Underwood has shown (again) his mettle and panache as a QB which is non-existent.  At least they play a team with a far worse defense this week <checks schedule>....uh oh.  Venables may not be a smart man, or a very good head coach, but the man knows how to confuse the heck out of opposing offenses.  I'm somewhat worried that the gift of 1 additional second will springboard the sun and blue to a rebound, but there is no reason to expect it.  Outside of the Barstool offices, the Michigan faithful are panicking in the street.  Boomer!  OU: 31--UM: 13
Hoying: Back in aught seven, That Team Up North cooked up a clunker very similar to the one they just displayed against Western Michigan, only with a blocked field goal to deliver the death knell instead of a hail mulligan escape. Do you remember what happened next? They hosted the (unranked) Oregon Ducks and got absolutely blasted. Now once again OU is coming to town (different OU this time), but the maize and blue don't even have Chad Henne and Mike Hart to pretend to rely on. We're back to the classic Harbaugh formula of a hyped-up QB coming in and somehow getting worse every year. The innovation is that the Whittverines suddenly can't run the ball either. Justice Haynes is sorely missed as Michigan put up all of 106 yards on the ground, 47 coming from Underwood himself. That's not going to do it against this OU front; recall that they gave up all of 28 yards on the ground in last year's close Playoff loss to Alabama. I don't think the Sooners are any great shakes but they're certainly better than whatever was spewed all over the Ann Arbor turf last week. Hang onto those sweet, sweet memories of 2023, Wolverines. You'll have nothing else to keep you warm at any point in the foreseeable future. OU: 24--UM: 14

Schweinfurth: Michigan struggled against a good MAC team. And they lost…yes, I do not recognize an illegitimate play. This is a mighty step up for the Wolverines. They are going to struggle unless Underwood can throw something other than a fastball at his receivers and the O-line learns how to run block. This one could get ugly folks. OU:35—UM: 6

Seeberg: Let’s be real here. Nobody on this blog was taking the cheaters up north in this game before last week’s debacle. I don’t believe they truly influenced the outcome (Big Ten refs are literally just that bad), but the confluence of garbage calls up there, along with things like OSU mysteriously losing comms for a quarter last year, and even a fully sane person has to wonder. Hope OU prepared some hand signals *shudders*. But it won’t matter. All the stallions in the world can’t save this iteration of the maize and blue. Boomer. OU: 27—UM: 10

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Who doesn't love a good rivalry? El (Cl)assico returns, but the Cyclones are all residing in Happy Valley after Matt Campbell left the cupboard bare.  I don't know much about these teams, but Iowa at home vs a monstrously decimated Iowa State roster spells trouble.  Kirk Ferentz keeps the children happy and the Hawks maintain the trophy.  ISU: 10--Iowa: 24
Hoying: Giving a game like this a 7:30 kickoff feels like a crime against nature, if only because it'll be impossible to stay awake until the end of it. Would you believe that Iowa State has taken 3 out of the last 4 in the series, and the lone Iowa win from 2023 was vacated as penal substitution for Michigan's crimes because the Hawkeyes were too hot to trot to land Cade McNamara of all people? Iowa State has a brand new head coach, while Iowa decidedly does not. Unfortunately, as former ISU coach Matt Campbell was promoted to Penn State rather than fired, you know what that means in the transfer portal era: the best talent left with him. There hasn't been a decent whooping in this rivalry in a decade but I have a bad feeling about storm to be unleashed upon visitors in this one. ISU: 13--Iowa: 27

Schweinfurth: Gotta love El Assico. This game is usually good for a chuckle. Matt Campbell had Iowa’s number. Seeing that he is gone, Iowa actually has a chance. I don’t think this game will set the game back 20 years again, but it won’t be the most aesthetically pleasing game either. ISU: 13—Iowa: 21

Seeberg: Hey it’s Iowa against Penn State Iowa State. The Cyclones were near national relevance under Matt Campbell but they will return to mediocrity in a hurry without him. As a result this fun intrastate, non-conference rivalry- a rarity these days (looking at you, Oreganders)- has lost some luster. Iowa is boring but solid, Iowa State is boring and meh. Advantage black and yellow. ISU: 10—IOWA: 26

Arizona Wildcats @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: This could be an intriguing and important match in the Big12, but I don't expect tons of eyes.  Provo is a tough place to play, and I believe BYU will contend for a playoff spot behind Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin.  Zona has flashed at times, but not seeing it in the spotlight.  Maybe in the near future, but Kelani rides the PopTart Bowl wave to another victory.  Zona: 20--BYU: 31
Hoying: The Big 12 is still technically a power conference so it still technically gets an automatic spot in the Playoff. Not that I'm worried about that arrangement changing, just wait until the 24-team Playoff gets rammed through and every conference gets a participation trophy entrant. Now that Bettin' Brendan Sorsby has finally been sidelined from Texas Tech, suddenly the Big 12 champion doesn't seem like such a foregone conclusion, and one (or both) of these teams could make some noise down the stretch if they can keep pace early. Arizona is welcoming back last year's leading rusher Ismail Mahdi and staring LB Max Harris after brief dalliances with the NFL Draft. It's a brave new world in college football this season, but let's not act like BYU hasn't routinely had 30- (40-?) year old players in the past either. Bear Bachmeier's still a young cub, starting out his sophomore year after setting the Big 12 on fire last year and coming up two losses to Texas Tech short of avenging 2024 BYU's Playoff snub. This one went to OT last year and is still giving me toss-up vibes, so I'll just go with the home team. Zona: 24--BYU: 27

Schweinfurth: This feels like a BYU run away. I’m not sure Zona can score with the Cougs. Zona: 21—BYU: 35

Seeberg: With Texas Tech’s well-publicized QB carousel ending poorly, this entire conference has 0 semi-legitimate title hopefuls (you’re next, ACC). Winning this “power” conference and getting in the playoff is like Steve Buscemi picking out his seat for the end of the world on the asteroid in Armageddon. Regardless, these two play and with Tet McMillan off to the NFL, the Wildcats should come back to Earth a bit. Cougars pull away late. Zona: 20—BYU: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Here we go again.  These guys just don't learn.  The Buckeyes storm into Austin on a winning streak vs the burnt orange but revenge will be on the minds of the Horns.  This may be one of the best Texas rosters with Colin Simmons holding down the defense and Cam Coleman shoring up the receiving corps (and that Arch guy).  One comment is that matching the offenses against each other (which is kinda dumb, but here we are) actually favor the Buckeyes at the skill positions (Sayin > Arch, Jackson > Smothers, Smith > Coleman), but the edge on the lines (assuming a repeat performance) likely favors the Horns.  Defenses are still somewhat of a question as they weren't pressed last week.  Interesting fact, both coordinators on both sides were head coaches (OSU's in the NFL and UTs in college).  I trust Patricia to get the guys going, but this is a tall order on the road.  Darrell K. Royal will be rockin' at night, but the Buckeyes aren't strangers to the big stage.  You know what's up.  Horns Down! Bucks (more or less) punch the playoff ticket in September.  OSU: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: As a fan of the game, these are the matchups you love to see, but as a Buckeye partisan this game makes me nervous. Sure, the Bucks are 2-0 against Bevo over the last two seasons but neither game was exactly a comfortable win. And Jeremiah Smith scored a total of zero points in those matchups, including being a total non-factor in the Cotton Bowl semifinal. Last week the all-Jeremiah-all-the-time offense looked great during the first half but the inability to get the run game going was frustrating. It's inexcusable for the O-line to continue to look this lost on handling their assignments after having the whole offseason to work on what's obvious to the entire world as Ohio State's greatest Achilles heel of late. At least we saw in the second half that we have multiple running backs who can make special plays if they can get the ball in space. The flaws I saw against Ball State are almost enough to make me pick the Longhorns for a second straight year (whoopsie) but I just have zero faith in Sark to actually pull one of these wins off. Since joining the SEC, Texas is 0-5 against Ohio State and Georgia and 24-1 against everyone else. The Buckeyes don't have James Franklin to kick around anymore but we've found almost as good a target during this three-year run. The schedule from hell kicks off with another big win as Jeremiah finally finds some room against another tough Texas D, and shake-n-bake Sayin makes another huge play on the ground. Time to start looking ahead to Illinois. OSU: 28--UT: 17

Schweinfurth: The Bucks need to get Jeremiah Smith the ball in this game. Texas has done everything they can to shut him down with great success. Look for Arthur Smith to move Jeremiah around and different ways to get him the ball. The running game needs to continue what they found in the second half last week. I don’t see a low scoring game this time. This one should be fun. OSU: 24—UT:21

Seeberg: To put in perspective how insane the SEC bias still is at ESECPN, Paul Finebaum said with a straight face that Sark was a better coach than Day. Day is 2-0 against him and leads 1-0 in natties. That’s a special kind of dumb right there. In any event, lots to pick at after a ho-hum 53-point win last week. Run game needed 3 quarters to get going; however, Day rotated combos a couple times early before leaving the starting five in the whole third quarter. D needs to get home on QBs, but most aren’t 250-lb bowling balls either. McCuin was a pleasant surprise and appeared for all the world a very legit second option. Expect 75+ yards from him if things go as planned. Right tackle, however, may be suspect. Play action should slow down the rush enough for Sayin to work his accuracy magic. A just-good-enough run game will do it. Jackson and Jackson can manage that (and your court case too!). Horns down. OSU: 27—UT: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Kentucky over Alabama
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Utah
Seeberg: Washington State over Kansas State 

Week 1: Getting the Ball Rolling

After a long and lonely offseason following two puzzling faceplants, the Buckeyes are raring to go as they kick off the season ranked #1 for the first time in 11 years. This season's schedule graciously features an aperitif before the steak dinner, but there are enough intriguing matches peppered across the landscape to hold your attention after you've  begun to turn your eyes upon Texas.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Clemson Tigers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Welcome to the real beginning of CFB for 2026 with a knockdown drag-em-out, fight between....the walking corpse of Clemson and the Villains of 2026. The battle of Tigahs is reasonably intriguing with little to no competition on the family of networks, but...I just don't care.  Texas Tech looked to be the team everyone was going to hate this year but "Ole King Troll" (trademark pending) Lane Kiffin burst into the chat.  Sam Leavitt is a nice QB but I don't see greatness.  On the other side, I couldn't name the QB.  When in doubt, I tend to lean on a tough home environment (and the team with former NFL players on it).  LSU probably ends with 3-4 losses...but this isn't one.  The Kiffin Era keep printing money for ESPN.  Clem: 17--LSU: 30
Hoying: Once upon a time, the LSU Tigers went into Death Valley East and walked out as the team to which ESPN was desperately trying to pin their title hopes after their #1 darling got pantsed in the Shoe. Then LSU went 7-6 and kicked Brian Kelly out of the fam-uh-lee. Now, as LSU desperately scrapes the bottom of the NFL wannabe barrel to fill out their opening day roster, everyone is foaming at the mouth to pin their hopes on the Bayou Bengals again thanks to volatile coach Lane Kiffin, who you last saw abandoning a Playoff semifinalist in the middle of their title run. I expect some growing pains in Baton Rouge, but do you know who else was really bad last year? That's right, the other Death Valley Tigers, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the sport is leaving poor old Dabo behind as contrasted with the constantly self-reinventing Kiffin. As I said last year, I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ones) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. And I didn't see it all last year for the preseason #4 frauds. Nothing changes until something changes. Clem: 17--LSU: 28

Schweinfurth: LSU has a lot of distractions coming into this week. With all of the court dates and noise around cut NFL players at LSU, there is no way Lane has been totally focused on this game. The dude's ego is driving the bus and it may be headed off a cliff. Clemson wasn’t great last year, but you still can’t overlook them. I think LSU squeaks by, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost either. Clem: 16—LSU: 17

Seeberg: Weird one to end the Saturday slate, mainly because literally everyone without a vested interest will be rooting for Dabo. Even with the potential inclusion of guys who apparently can’t make an NFL practice squad, getting traction with so much change may be difficult for Lane. How he continues to get high-profile jobs defies all logic. As for the game itself? It might as well defy all logic too. Keeping your roster from turnover should be beneficial early in the season, and Dabo’s chip on his shoulder is probably visible from space by now. Let’s get the fire Lane train rolling early Clem: 20—LSU: 17

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Louisville Cardinals vs. Mississippi Rebels 

Draper: How about those Rebels post-Kiffin? They certainly put on a show in the playoffs, but can they continue with a new roster? Wait...what? They have Trinidad Chambliss for a David Lighty year? No real reason to expect Chambliss can't carry them against Louisville when he carried them to the semis last year.  These matchups of teams in the teens always produce surprises, but I just can't quick my priors.  Ole Miss will be getting a lion's share of the betting market, but week 1 is where upstart dreams go to die.  The Grove should be enough, but we shall see.  UL: 13--Miss: 27
Hoying: How long can Ole Miss keep its mojo? The last time a scummy coach (Hugh Freeze) left town, the Rebs spent the next few years having about as much success as their namesakes until the next scummy coach came along. Most of the pieces of last year's puzzle are still in place. The only star player Ole Miss put into the NFL was WR De'Zhaun Stribling, and the Ohio State transfer pipeline seems to be closed off for the moment. And it was current coach Pete Golding, not Lane Kiffin, who had the Rebs one Hail Mary completion away from having a shot at Indiana for the championship (still will never be not weird). The other sideline in this one is less interesting. Louisville is just always kind of there (unless they're upsetting the mighty Miami Hurricanes, see, it can be done), and short of being the latest landing spot for a less-than-elite backup Ohio State quarterback (Lincoln Kienholz this time), there's not much intrigue. The mighty SEC gets to flex its muscles against a ranked opponent, and ESPN gets to breathe a sigh of relief that Week 3 Armageddon won't get spoiled early. UL: 17--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: Early season game and I don’t have much to say here. Is losing Lane Kiffin addition by subtraction? Maybe. Ole Miss should win this. UL: 24—Miss: 35

Seeberg: Lincoln Kienholz makes his actual, meaningful debut here (bowl games need not apply). He’s hyper athletic but the supporting cast still leaves something to be desired. I do think Brohm can coach him up reasonably well, but it’s just too early for that to take full effect. The Lane-less Rebs get a W. UL: 20—MISS: 31

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles

Draper: Why are we picking this? This is just rude.  I know my colleagues are simply trying to get me to just pick my alma mater who has just fallen on rough times so they can let me start the year in a hole....SO THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I'LL DO!!! You thought FSU was in trouble against NMSU? AU CONTRAIRE! This was a masterful rope-a-dope by Norvell as the Noles are ready to reemerge onto the national stage by putting a beatdown on the Mustangs.  You say the defensive line had 0 pressures against the Aggies? That just shows the New Mexico State is ready for the big time.  There's gotta be 4 first rounders on that Aggie Oline.  SMU won't know what hit them as the Seminole Uprising returns to Doak (Note: I may or may not believe this....I'll leave it to the reader to decide).  SMU: 30--FSU: 34
Hoying: Florida State getting passed up for a spot in the 2023 CFP at 13-0 may be one of the cruelest robberies in the history of college football. Not just because it let The Abomination win the championship that year (no, Florida State wouldn't have beaten them either, but let me dream), but because that might have been the last chance at greatness this program may ever enjoy. Much like the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Noles enjoyed decades of success under a legendary head coach, some lesser greatness under a successor they chased away, and now look bewilderedly mediocre year after year. At least Nebraska still fills Memorial Stadium, I guess. I just can't understand how a team in such fertile recruiting territory with such a rich history of success and swagger can be so bad. Even Miami managed to resurrect themselves (still waiting on Florida, though, but take your time, boys). More to the point, S M U, a program that was literally killed off in the 80s, has managed to claw their way back into perennial playoff contention in (technically) a power conference. If I hadn't just watched Florida State squeak by New Mexico State last week, I might have picked the Noles under a "they can't be this bad forever" theory, but...actually, let's just go with that. The worm has to turn sometime, right? Right? SMU: 27--FSU: 30

Schweinfurth: This has to be a make or break year for Mike Norvell. He’s shown a few flashes, but hasn’t seemed able to get into the dance. They’ll have to put up quite a few points in this one to keep things on the tracks to start the year. SMU has been able to score in bunches the last few years. Should be a fun one to watch. SMU: 34—FSU: 38

Seeberg: Well, we have a bit of data at hand for this marquee(?) matchup…and it looks bad for the Seminoles. Struggling to put away a New Mexico State team that was 4-8 last year is worrying. I don’t have a ton of faith in SMU (see what I did there Methodists?), but I’ll be hard-pressed to pick FSU in any game of consequence. Bobby Bowden, Peter Warrick and Co. aren’t walking through that door anytime soon unfortunately. SMU: 34—FSU: 20

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Ball State Cardinals @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye football, we've missed you terribly.  After a rather inauspicious end to the 2025 campaign, the Scarlet and Gray enter 2026 with the largest spread of week 1 (and that includes teams playing UMass....uh...sorry Buttgers).  There's not much to say here.  As we enter the Shoe for Senior Day (dumb), the focus will simply be on staying healthy and prepping for Texas.  Ball State will happily take their paycheck and their bowling ball QB and be on their way.  Sayin and Smith light it up early but the backups get extensive time starting in the first half.  The defense will make a mistake or two, but it won't matter.  Bucks roll.  I REALLY wanted to pick the shutout, but I have a feeling a sad FG will ruin the day.  I'm not sure the Buckeyes even cover to keep everything in the bag! Ball: 3--OSU: 52
Hoying: Another year, another dozen-or-so players lost to the NFL draft, and another preseason top 3 ranking notwithstanding. Get ready to get used to some new faces on both sides of the ball, especially this week as the Buckeyes hopefully go 3 or 4 strings deep. We likely won't get the answers we're looking for against BS U, but we can start to look for clues. How will the ball be distributed among the WR corps without a clear #2 option? How will the O-line make room for the running game, and does that include our newly minted captain QB? How many pieces in the secondary does it take to replace Caleb Downs, and what does that mean for getting pressure on the QB? I suggest you don't worry about this sort of thing and, just enjoy yourself. That goes for you all, too. BSU: 3--OSU: 56

Schweinfurth: I’m a simple man. I just want to see what Arthur Smith’s offense looks like (tempo please?) and how Matt Patricia has reloaded the defense. That and let’s get Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman campaign kicked off in style. No injuries, get the backups some time, and tune up for a massive one next week. BSU: 0—OSU: 59

Seeberg:  Well kids, we made it. Another season of Buckeye football is upon us! We have to wait til week 2 for a banger this year, however. I am very curious how both lines will look. Lots of experience up front for Sayin, Bo and Co. If they can keep Julian upright against real competition, it’s natty or bust. The front 6 on D (might as well call it that these days) is more concerning. Lots of production gone. I trust Kenyatta and Eddrick, but too much unknown otherwise. I also no longer trust Ryan Day to go any faster than your average turtle on offense. Gonna need big plays from #4 through the air and chunk plays on the ground to score enough to justify the half-a-hundred spread. Regardless of the opponent, football is back. Enjoy Buckeye Nation, it gets real, real quick! BSU: 10—OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: Wisconsin over Notre Dame
Hoying: Washington State over Washington
Schweinfurth: Boise State over Oregon (hahaha)
Seeberg: Ohio over Nebraska

How To Lose Games and Influence Nothing

 

Allow me to take you all back more than a quarter of a century.  Thirty years, to be precise.  The year was 1995.  Toy Story hit theaters that November and ushered in a new era of animation.  Gas was $1.20 a gallon.  Waterfalls and Gangsta’s Paradise dominated the radio (the actual radio, not streaming kids!).  That year, Ohio State football was an absolute juggernaut.  That team had the best offensive lineman in the country (Orlando Pace, winning the first of his consecutive Lombardi Trophies), the best wide receiver in the country (Terry Glenn, Biletnikoff winner), a 3^rd round draft pick at quarterback, and the LITERAL best player in the country in Eddie George, who won the Heisman.  That team hung 45 on 15th ranked Notre Dame and 56 on #25 Iowa en route to an 11-0 start.  Then suddenly, a team with a laughable surplus of offensive firepower forgot how to offense, scoring just 37 points in its final two contests, losses to that team up north and Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

 

Thirty years later, the script had flipped from offense to defense.  The 2025 iteration of our beloved Buckeyes had FOUR first round draft picks on defense, including the Thorpe Award winner for best secondary player in the country.  This unit allowed 7.8 points per game in the regular season.  Nobody scored over 16 points all season.  Imagine only needing to score 17 points to guarantee victory!  Quite a privilege.  The last five teams to allow less than 11 points per game in the regular season (including, incidentally, the 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes) all won the natty.  To quote former Vikings (and Cardinals during this famous rant) head coach Dennis Green, “Crown their ass!”

 

Then came the Big Ten championship game.  Lots more great defense.  Only 14 points were required to win this game, against the #2 team in the country!  Except 14 points didn’t come, only 10 did.  13-10 *shudders*.  A bizarre, though somewhat dismissible, loss.  Buckeye faithful had been bemused about mediocre red zone play calling and execution all season, a seemingly endless competition to see how many tight ends could legally be on the field simultaneously.  It hadn’t mattered.  Every game had been won.  Until now.  Now, things must change.

 

Except things didn’t change.  Not in the slightest.  Like a degenerate gambler putting good money after bad,  Ryan Day- and whatever other offensive staff he allows any input- doubled down on a head-scratching strategy to intentionally shorten games and keep opponents as close as they are capable of being which, in the case of the final two games, was so close they actually won.

 

Before I continue, it bears mentioning that, to compliment the incredible defense, Ohio State’s offensive cupboard was FAR from bare.  Max Klare, a day 2 draft pick tight end weapon, Bo Jackson, an incredible freshman running back, TWO FIRST ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS AND A QUARTERBACK WHO SET THE ALL-TIME COMPLETION PERCENTAGE RECORD were on this offense.  This is not hyperbole.  Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in college football.  Julian Sayin is the most accurate quarterback in the history of the game (they’ve only been playing it for 150 years or so though, so take that with a grain of salt).  Carnell Tate is a first-round pick, yet WR2 on this roster.  Pure absurdity.

 

Yet somehow, this is the offense that mustered a whole 10 points against Indiana (again, only 14 were needed to win).  This is the offensive unit that was shut out at halftime against Miami.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you score 0 points.  Remember that insane 1995 Ohio State offense?  It scored 23 and 14 points in its last two outings.  Still 13 points more than this team managed.

 

The defense?  Phenomenal.  The word “generational” gets thrown around way too often, but when you’re a quarter of the way through a century and NO defense has allowed fewer PPG through the regular season, that qualifies.  Even counting the Big Ten championship game- against the future national champions- that number was only up to 8.2 PPG which tied 2011 Alabama (national champs, of course).  Indiana averaged 40.3 ppg in the playoffs.  They hung 56 on Oregon.  The Silver Bullets held them to a measly 13, and the offense simply did not do its job.

 

In the bigger picture, I can forgive some of the Indiana outing.  Hartline was leaving, recruiting was in flux and as nice as a Big Ten championship is, there was truly not a whole lot at stake.  The post-game interviews sounded as if it was simply a regular season game and that the playoff would wake this offense up.  The ignition would be hit, the car would shift into 5^th gear, and away the Buckeyes would go.  Instead, Ryan Day chose to stay in 3^rd, cruised town at 35 MPH, and flat out refused to even begin to approach anything like what this offense could have done.

 

Moreover, at the start of the season, when our quarterback was a complete unknown and two new coordinators were being installed, 11-2 sounded about right.  Another CFP appearance was acceptable in August.  But as information compiles, goals are adjusted.  Turns out, that new quarterback was allergic to inaccuracy.  Hey guess what?  That guy that coordinated all those Super Bowl winning defenses in New England knew what he was doing!  Expectations rose accordingly, and justifiably.  Ultimately, those expectations weren’t met.

 

Fair or not, this falls on Ryan Day.  The supposed offensive mastermind managed just 24 points in the final two games of the season with the aforementioned bevy of talent.  There are a litany of truly great Buckeye teams in years past (’69, ’95, ’96, ’98, ’03, ’15, ’19 off the top of my head) that did not win a title for myriad reasons.  2025 has to be added to this list.  A legitimately generational defense was squandered by a coach who absolutely could not get out of his players’ way.  Day’s outright refusal to let his elite offensive players exert their influence on the game to their maximum extent (read:  more plays)- especially when it mattered most in the postseason- will leave Buckeye Nation befuddled for years to come

Week 18: The Upside Down

Standings:

1.) Hoying 52-20 (2-12 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 52-20 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 48-24 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-27 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the Upside Down, where everything is strange and alien, and the Eleven Warriors sadly weren't quite as successful as Eleven and her warriors (spoiler alert). Nothing better summarizes this year's bizarro world College Football Playoff than the fact that the Oregon Ducks chasing their first ever national championship after coming oh so close so many times during the last 15 years...is the LEAST compelling narrative of the CFP semifinalists.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8

Cotton Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Mississippi Rebels

Draper: Going into the playoffs, there was always a chance for these teams to make a run.  I was more confident in Miami as they had all the pieces necessary, but bad Carson Beck kept them from perfection.  Ole Miss was an absolute wildcard from the get go.  In fact, they're similar to the 2024 OSU squad who entered the playoffs with low/no expectations (for different reasons), but then just decided to win the whole effin thing.  Neither of these teams really expected to be here, but a massive choke by UGA left the door open and a pick six doomed the Bucks.  Can the Cane lines bully the Rebels like they did to the Buckeyes? I think they can, but Chambliss is much more mobile than Sayin.  It will come down to Carson Beck's ability to not make the big mistake and Bain getting to the QB.  I think they'll do just enough to edge out the Rebels who have to be running on fumes at this point.  I hate them...but Michael Irvin's dealer will be making some bank.  UM: 24--Miss: 21

Hoying: It's a good thing these teams are playing each other because each of them is threatening to run out of steam at any moment. We (unfortunately) got to see Good Carson Beck (if you can call less than 6 yards per attempt "good") last week in Jerryworld, but it's always only a matter of time before Bad Carson Beck rears his ugly head. And it starts with pressure. The Buckeyes tallied all of two sacks after putting up four each against Tennessee and Texas in last year's Playoff (and EIGHT against Oregon) against the most Jekyll-and-Hyde pressure sensitive QB since Andy Dalton. Unfortunately for the SEC, their last remaining hope isn't exactly known for their defense, averaging about half a sack per game fewer than your favorite team. It's not like the Hurricane offense put a bunch of points up on the Bucks even with the lack of pressure, but the question will be whether Trinidad Chambliss can succeed where Julian Sayin failed, and whether the Rebel front can give him the time to do so. The other elephant in the room is whether Ole Miss will be able to keep their coaching staff intact to sustain a Playoff run, as another pair of offensive coaches have been abducted by the Lane Train. We saw in the Big Ten Championship what can happen when a team has to face distraction after distraction while preparing for a top opponent. These two teams were my outside-the-box choices to potentially turn it on at the right time and pull off a shocker of a Playoff run, and one of them will be taking it all the way to Miami in a couple weeks. With all the turmoil surrounding the Ole Miss program, and the talented Hurricanes peaking at just the right time, I think they'll keep the SEC out of the championship for the third straight year and get their chance to stop a third Big Ten team from taking the title in as many years. UM: 27--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: The 'Ole Miss joy ride has to end at some point right? They have been impressive to this point, but with all of the distractions, it has to be almost over. Miami, to their credit, can bring the heat on both lines. It truly feels like Miami is the better and more cohesive team. Keeping Carson Beck from making the big mistake will be important. Miami should win. UM: 28--Miss: 17
Seeberg: Just think- we were a “we can use tempo!” coaching decision away from from THREE Big Ten teams in the final four. *Heaviest of sighs*. Anyway, here’s your game to see who gets to be the runner up this year. Ole Miss found something even after the Lane Train’s departure, but they’re still suspect at best defensively. Trinidad is super mobile, but a team that only needs 4 to get pressure like Miami can afford a QB spy on defense. Miami will likely grind down the Rebels and that tired defense will get gashed late. The U reaches a title game only to get their hopes dashed by a Big Ten school. UM: 27—Miss: 16

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

Peach Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Ugh....I hate rematches so much.  Let's see...IU went to Eugene and beat this EXACT team on the road this year....but THIS is the one that counts.  While I've faded both of these teams (to my detriment) this year, a new B1G team will be playing for a national championship for the 3rd straight year.  Indiana has been a model of consistency with the upperclassman transfers (do they recruit high school players any more?).  Oregon has continued to thrive with question marks abounding.  The injury to the Duck RB is a real concern in this game, as the Hoosier defense is just awesome.  Can the Ducks slow down Mendoza? I'd suggest asking him his favorite LOTR character...that might cause a delay of game.  It's Cig's world and we're just living in it.  Hoosier mania rolls to the title and we get another interview with the most loveable dork of all time (who is a freaking Heisman winner!).  I can't believe I'm typing this....Indiana to the title.  Ore: 20--IU: 30

Hoying: I hope you enjoyed rematch season, because this is the last one we'll see this year. When these two last played, Indiana pulled out a double digit win in the unfriendly confines of Autzen Stadium, in a game that was only really close because of a late pick six by Oregon. Championship teams can navigate these setbacks. The Hoosiers haven't slowed down since, escaping late against Penn State and needing some boneheaded red zone play by Ohio State but otherwise dominating everyone else they've faced, capped off by the most comprehensive humbling of Alabama since the 20th century. Oregon has been no slouch either, with a bit of a questionable schedule but proving their bona fides with a convincing shutout of the red hot Red Raiders. Rematches have generally flipped the script this season, most visibly with Ole Miss avenging October's fourth quarter collapse against Georgia in last week's Sugar Bowl (offer void for Tulane though), but I just don't see any reason why Oregon takes this one without a monumental collapse by the overwhelming title favorite Indiana Hoosiers (still never won't be weird). We saw last week what happens when a title contender doesn't play up to their potential, but the Indiana players are tough, disciplined, and don't make mistakes. And though Curt Cignetti must be feeling the butterflies leading up to the big moment, on the surface he looks calm and ready (mom's spaghetti). It's not so much that Oregon doesn't have an answer for the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers. It's that nobody does. Ore: 17--IU: 27

Schweinfurth: It's going to take quite a bit to beat the Hoosiers. You need to run the ball effectively and shut down the Hoosiers offense. Oregon can do it. The problem is, it took a pick 6 to keep them in the game. I fully expect this to be close, but Indiana has death machine vibes. Either way, this is probably your true national championship game. Mendoza keeps this one rolling. Ore: 14--IU: 17
Seeberg: I can’t decide which team winning the title would be worse. Oregon not having one is endlessly fun, but the IU fanbase went from nonexistent to never shutting up in about 1.5 years. On the field, remarkably, I do think IU is the better squad. At SOME point, however, talent and experience will win out. Ole Miss is the only good option left, but the Ducks know it’s this year- with big bad OSU out of the way- or never. Dante Moore gets a #1 pick style payday with his performance and sends Oregon to the championship. Quack quack. Ore: 26—IU: 20

Week 17: Cotton Cane-dy

Standings:

1.) Hoying 51-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-23 (2-12 upset)

With the departure of the stupid auto-byes for garbage conference champions, the 2025-26 CFP can look forward to a quarterfinal round largely devoid of chump teams (your mileage may vary on the Rose and Cotton Bowls). Will the Big Ten put a record 3 teams into the semifinals? Or will we see continued departures from the total chalk that dominated the inaugural 12-team tourney?

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I'm really interested to see how this one turns out.  The analytics have favored the Ducks all year while I've faded them (to my detriment), but I also haven't felt that Tech was a juggernaut either.  I could see either outcome here as both teams were built on all the money.  The Red Raiders have been undervalued most of the year due to weaker competition, but the wins over BYU (both of them) and Utah are nothing to sneeze at.  Oregon's crowning achievement was beating USC at home....which is nice, but nothing to phone home about.  Regardless, I'm really torn. The analytics literally have this as a coin flip so....I'll keep fading the Ducks.  Why not? Guns up.  OU:17--TT:20

Hoying: Both of these teams have been terrific on both sides of the ball this year, but everyone's eyes are on the high flying Duck offense against the Texas Tech stone wall led by the best D-line money can buy. Both have excelled all season; which team has proven it can execute against decent competition? TTU faced some real live offenses in Utah and BYU and dispatched them with relative ease, which Oregon was able to pile on against the likes of USC and Penn State. Where will the dam break in this one? Oregon would love to take the game out of Dante Moore's hands. Not that they don't trust him, but the Ducks have preferred to lean heavily on their ground game this year, with excellent results. That is, except against Indiana, when Oregon ran for a paltry 108 yards and Moore threw 2 interceptions trying to catch up with IU. Tech's run D is like a rock, which means that Moore is going to have to make some plays to win this one. And that's bad news for the Ducks, as nobody is causing havoc to the QB this season like Texas Tech, leading the nation in turnovers and finishing in the top 10 in sacks. I mistrust defenses that build their identity on big plays but the Tech D is so sound otherwise that I don't think it really limits them. And the Red Raider offense has been great as well except when QB Behren Morton was out against Arizona State. That may be indicative of a depth issue, but if there's one Playoff game where depth shouldn't be a problem, it's the first one, which bodes ill for Oregon. A lot of new money (like, newer than Oregon) is going to be appearing in the semifinals this year. OU: 20--TTU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon's run game has been a problem for teams this year. They are fast and physical. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses, but Indiana had trouble with this run game as well. This is the Red Raiders' first go at this and I expect some jitters. Oregon has been there and Lanning seems to be a step ahead. I expect Oregon to move on here. OU: 24--TTU: 17
Seeberg: This one is an intriguing matchup. This season there are only 5 teams that I think are capable of winning it all, and these two are in that group. Texas Tech has basically done in one season--with oil instead of swoosh money--what Oregon has done the last 20 years; throw insane resources at the college football program and voila! Instant contender. The problem now becomes, which team do you trust? The one that's never been there before, or the one that gets there and then gets run out of the stadium by the Buckeyes? IU exposed Dante Moore a bit, not all that dissimilar to how the Hoosiers confused Sayin in the B1G title game. The Red Raiders have an excellent defense as well, but they don't scheme it up quite as well as Cignetti's crew. I also don't expect Morton to put up 30 like Mendoza did. It will stay relatively low scoring (take the under kids!), but a few more plays by Moore and his weapons will make the difference. The Red Raiders' color scheme is just different enough from scarlet and gray to see Oregon through the semis. OU: 23--TTU: 13

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm going to do it.  I just can't believe in #1 Indiana.  On paper, this should be a bloodbath.  Curt Cignetti is a psycho (which is a compliment in college football coaching circles), Mendoza is a baller (if not the biggest nerd on the planet), and that defense is straight nasty.  But.  Bama is Bama.  While they are a shell of what they were with Saban, I saw some of the hitting in the SEC championship and it was brutal.  There's really no reason for Bama to be on the same field against the Goliath of the Hoosiers...but college football is weird.  IU goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the LBJ administration, and, while they've surmounted all the obstacles (beat OSU: check, win the B1G: check, win a freaking Heisman: check), I feel like they're due for a regression.  Bama was getting spanked early vs. the Sooners, but rose from the ashes to take a convincing win.  The Hoosiers are WAY better, but Bama is inevitable.  Give me the Tide to end the super season for the boys from Bloomington.  Bama: 24--IU: 20

Hoying: Sometimes you watch a back and forth gridiron slugfest and walk away marveling at the clash of the titans you just witnessed (kraken release optional). And sometimes you're just thankful that you got to witness another modern episode of the Three Stooges. This year's Playoff opener was very much the latter. After getting obliterated by Georgia in the SEC Championship, Alabama managed to sneak into the CFP ahead of the much, much better Notre Dame despite handing in possibly the single worst performance of any Playoff team as their closing statement, finishing off a stretch run of miraculously escaping South Carolina, phoning in a win over LSU, losing to Oklahoma, and darn near losing to the incompetence incarnate Auburn Tigers. And the trend continued into the Playoff...for about a quarter and a half, before Oklahoma's wide receivers (and punter) forgot how to catch. I know Bama fans are hoping that all that talent (and program mystique generated by Saban) will rise up and save them at some point, but until I see some signs of life from the Tide, they're just another sleeping Snorlax in a world with no Poké Flutes. Indiana has been the real deal all season, and while they weren't perfect against Ohio State, a B effort from the Hoosiers would be more than enough to move on to a much tougher opponent in the semifinals. Bama: 10--IU: 24

Schweinfurth: Bama can't run the ball, and probably should have lost if it weren't for Playoff Oklahoma. Indiana is going to tee off on Ty Simpson. I really don't see how this goes any other way. I have not been very impressed by Bama this year. Indiana can, and will move the ball decently here. This isn't Saban's Bama. The only pause I would give is Indiana gets into "happy to be here mode" with the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Hoosiers may just be too much. Bama: 9--IU: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the SEC-Big 10 heavyweight tilt we all antic…hang on, being told that it’s actually Indiana in the Rose Bowl and not Ohio State, or Penn State or, well you get the idea.  Indiana may legitimately be becoming a college football heavyweight under Cignetti- as long as he manages to hit on a transfer QB every year.  Bama, meanwhile, may be close to fading from heavyweight status as the talks were strong about DeBoer leaving altogether if they didn’t beat the Sooners last week.  It’s like Bama fans forget they were lousy for 15 years before Saban arrived (WOW does that sound like a fanbase to the north we all know and hate).  Pretty sure the Crimson Tide faithful would wipe Mike Shula off Wikipedia if any of them knew how to use a computer.  At any rate, DeBoer is, I believe, an excellent coach, but the mystifying lack of a run game this year has cost Bama multiple times, and will likely do so again.  Bama faithful are relying on the “Jimmys and the Joes” instead of the Xs and Os to win this one, but even that argument doesn’t hold much weight:  IU has 5 prospects projected in the first four rounds next April, including a Heisman QB, 2 day two WRs and a sticky cover corner (Jeremiah notwithstanding).  The Buckeyes didn’t run it well against IU, and Bama can’t run it well against anyone.  The Hoosiers’ defense is just too good to be beaten by a one-dimensional offense, and with this game the conference just might have THREE teams in the CFP semis.  Someone keep a defibrillator near Finebaum.  IU: 24—Bama: 13

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game in which I have no freaking clue what is going to happen.  Ole Miss could be an absolute shell after they were spurned by Kiffin; or they could play with an unmatched fire of hatred a la OSU last year.  UGA seems to be evolving into their final form, but does anyone really trust Gunner Stockton? Kewan Lacy is a great back that could hit some explosives and make it interesting, but the Dawgs seem on a collision course in the semis with....someone (find out below).  The Dawgs sic em and end the extra payout to ol' Lane (what a tough life).  UGA: 31--Ole Miss: 17

Hoying: This is a fascinating matchup, and not just for the rematch factor. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in Athens earlier this season before their defense completely ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, a result that might inspire a reversal of outcome in a second meeting of these teams, absent any confounding factors. But when Lane Kiffin is involved, you can bet that everyone is leaving confounded. The Rebs seemed very insistent to put the world on notice that losing Kiffin wasn't going to be the death knell of their title hopes, rendering Tulane into gooey paste in the CFP first round, but that was Tulane. Any of these Playoff contenders could do that to pretty much any G5 team (as long as Oregon's defense shows up in the second half). Ole Miss managed to hang on to DC Pete Golding, who has been promoted to head coach (with no coaching search???) and have the bulk of their offensive staff on loan from Lane, but how locked in are they going to be at this point? You saw Brian Hartline put up 10 points against Indiana, which was bad enough that Day wrested control of the offense back for the stretch run. Ole Miss is good enough to win the whole thing this year, and should not be taken lightly, but as we saw the last time these two teams met, you can't beat Georgia if you take your eye off the ball for even a quarter, let alone 60 minutes. UGA: 34--Miss: 27

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss got a bye last week. Let's face it, there were not tested at all. If we look at the teams that could actually win it all, the Rebels are not high on that list. Georgia is. This will be the meh game of the playoff semis. UGA: 35--Ole Miss: 17
Seeberg: Boo, the SEC gets a team into the semis by default *heavy sigh*.  Anyway, Ole Miss still looked solid in another dismantling of Tulane (yawn) despite the turmoil in Oxford.  UGA, however, is perhaps a slight step up in competition.  Gunnar Stockton has been serviceable most of the season and the Dawgs’ defense looked like its 2021 self as they dominated Bama in the SEC title game.  That formula- a decent QB and dominant D- won them back-to-back natties.  Bama, however, is almost entirely one-dimensional on offense, and Ole Miss presents more problems.  So many problems, in fact, that the Bulldogs gave up 35 at home to the Rebels in October (yay rematches!).  At that point, there still wasn’t a ton of tape on the Rebels’ backup-turned-star QB Trinidad Chambliss (all-name team for eternity, by the way).  With another couple months of film, combined with the loss of Kiffin and a lot of offensive staff, it’s hard to think Ole Miss will get to 30 points again.  Georgia may or may not get there either, but the Dawgs should do enough on offense regardless.  Another CFP semi for Kirby.  UGA: 31—Ole Miss: 20

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Miami Hurricanes vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Miami was the monstrous question mark in this entire playoff field.  Yeah, they have Carson Beck (the presumed #1 pick last year), but also, they have Carson Beck (interception machine).  The Canes definitely sport some dudes up from on both sides of the ball that could harass Sayin like the Hoosiers did, but I gotta believe the coaches put their heads together to activate demon mode for the playoffs.  I'm excited to see what Van Sickle does replacing the 'injured' Tshabola, but we all know that this needs to be the Smith/Tate show.  If Miami isn't able to get pressure quickly, I believe Day will be taking many more vertical shots than he did against the Hoosiers (the shots he took worked, there were just very few).  Bo Jackson needs to keep up his amazing freshman season to keep the defense honest and the backs also need to keep Sayin clean.  If he has time, the Canes are in trouble.  On the other side of the ball, Miami's Mark Fletcher looked really good versus A&M but this bullet defense stops the run much more efficiently.  It is imperative that the defensive line (Curry and Big Mac) pressure Carson Beck into some mistakes.  Beck has the tools to be a very solid QB and weapons like Malachi Toney to make the Buckeyes pay if left unchecked, but if he gets hit early and often with an early turnover, this could snowball.  While this game is not the layup Buckeye Nation believes it to be, the cards clearly favor the Scarlet and Gray.  Now, the title defense begins.  Go Ohio! Beat the Hurricanes! OSU: 31--UM: 17

Hoying: Gentlemen, I bring you...MORE DECEMBER BOWL GAMES! This time...SHALL BE DIFFERENT! Broken hearts in 2022 (and 2019, and 2016, and sure, throw in 2023) aside, the Buckeyes are facing a lower class of opponent (in every sense) than the Clemsons and Georgias of seasons past, and the boys in scarlet and gray are better than any of those prior years' December warriors (except maybe 2019). There's been a lot of bluster coming from Cuba Norte about how cooked Ohio State is going to be in this one, and I just don't see it. I would put this game into the "upset alert" category: there's a path to victory for the Hurricanes but it requires them to fire on all cylinders in their areas of relative strength (pass rush, run defense, Malachi Toney) and for the Bucks to make mistake after mistake after mistake. Problem is, Ohio State is not Texas A&M; the Buckeyes don't hit the self destruct button every November or so (kudos to A&M for hitting the self-destruct "30 minute forbearance" button at halftime against South Carolina). When Ryan Day has a few weeks to prepare for a postseason opponent, and he's not starting Devin Brown at QB, get ready for the Buckeyes to rain hell down on whomever they're facing. Each Playoff loss in the Ryan Day era has been primarily a failure of the defense, with the arguable exception of 2019, which was doomed in part by poor red zone execution. And while red zone execution is a continued glaring scarlet flag for the Buckeyes, Matt Patricia's defense gives the offense a giant safety net to operate their acrobatics over. Buckeye opponents actually punt in the 4th quarters of big games now! Buckeyes take care of business and turn their attention to the worst playing surface in the football world. OSU: 27--Da U: 13

Schweinfurth: If Miami can get pressure, and if Ryan Day goes into a shell, and if the Silver Bullets stay in Columbus, and if Matt Patricia quits for the NFL on the sideline and, if and if and if. Miami's defense is good. Don't get me wrong, they can cause issues for the Buckeyes. That offense was NOT good last week. Beck will throw the ball to the other team if he is confused and the Bucks certainly can do that. Day has play calling duties back and you know he is itching to release the sleeping monster that is the Ohio State offense. Playoff Ryan Day rarely disappoints. In my mind, this game feels like it could be over by half time. It won't, but the Bucks have the ability to avalanche the Canes like they did Oregon last year. Go Bucks, Beat the Canes. OSU: 35--Miami: 7
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, *breaks out thesaurus* highly perplexed, confounded, flummoxed and bemused at the amount of national media taking the ‘Canes in this one.  Did they watch the first round?  Miami won that game on a technicality:  The fact that both teams cannot lose a game, despite their best efforts.  A much more fitting ending would’ve been the Penn State-Illinois 9-OT “thriller” of perpetual mediocrity.  To Miami’s credit, however, they did win it.  The Canes’ seem to have mostly left their mid-season stupor behind, losing to two 8-4 squads while Carson Beck threw the ball to whatever team wasn’t wearing green and orange like it was on a dare.  Beck isn’t a particularly mobile quarterback which means one thing:  Matt Patricia can unleash Arvelle Reese from his QB spy duties.  That doesn’t bode well for any opponent.  Defensively, the Canes are excellent up front.  Their back 7 is…extant?  Pressure is paramount for that defense to succeed.  Sayin, with time, can pick their coverages apart, particularly with a fully healthy #4 in the fold.  I would love to see a big early lead and then watch Bo Jackson grind the Canes into powder, but I’m not convinced it will be an Oregon-like blowout.  Don’t fret, Buckeye Nation, if it’s not over after a quarter.  I suspect it will be over by three.  Jeremiah is highly motivated, and although Ryan Day will need a couple series to adjust to taking over play calling, the defense will (this is a guarantee) turn Beck over to get our offense set up.  All signs point to a methodical win.  Go Bucks, Happy New Year.  OSU: 27—Miami: 10