Week 11: DEFCON 2

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 26-17 (4-6 upset)
1.) Draper 26-17 (3-7 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 26-17 (1-9 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-19 (1-9 upset)

If you put on your scarlet-colored glasses and squint your eyes, you can find a way to forgive Ohio State for losing to two of the preseason top 5 and another top 15 team, even if each of these foes have squandered their talent this season to a degree that...honestly matches what we've seen in Columbus. But lose, at home, to the Big Ten's perennial punching bag Northwestern (apologies to Indiana), and it's time to hit the panic button for real.

Southern California Trojans @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: What to do with these teams (or any for that matter)? Every team (including UGA) has a fatal flaw this year. For USC, it’s the defense that hasn’t stopped anyone except a freshman QB in his first start in the rain ☹ and….that’s about it. For Indiana, it’s quarterback play and simply a step down at every position from last year’s juggernaut. The Hoosier faithful are still lamenting the first loss they’ve seen in their lifetime (because they haven’t watched them until 2025), but the team does still have some good players. This is going to be strength on strength with the Hoosier D vs Maiava and the goofy dragon with the IU offense vs the USC defense. I can’t bring myself to believe in Lincoln Riley on the road. Cig is a superior coach and will keep IU afloat (sadly). I won’t be shocked if the Trojans figure out a way, but I’m not banking on it.USC: 20—IU: 24

Hoying: Is anyone good in the Big Ten this year? "UCLA is undefeated!" you may say, but they have 2015 imposter Iowa and 2017 imposter Wisconsin written all over them. You can kill divisions (and the Big Ten Championship Game, apparently) but you can't kill the spirit of the Big Ten West, you can only move it 1,000 miles or so from its familiar heartland. Anyway I'm not a true believer in either of these teams at this point, but the biggest fraud among these two is USC...on the road. The Trojans barely escaped Rutgers and Penn State in their travels and got walloped at Wisconsin. Then again, they got killed at home by Oregon too. It would have been nice to have USC in the Shoe and just offer up a road game to Oregon as a sacrifice, but alas. Indiana hasn't looked terribly impressive at any point over the last month, or really at any point in this season unless you get starry-eyed over blowouts of Rutgers or bad G6 teams, but they do have a functioning defense, even against teams with offensive lines that don't spend all game eating paste. The road to a return to Indy rolls on. USC: 16--IU: 24

Schweinfurth: Man, Indiana has a knack for escaping in games like this. I’m not sold on USC. Indiana close again. USC: 17—IU:24

Seeberg: Well, here’s a classic Big Ten matchup. Or not. The Trojans had a bye week to enjoy beating the suddenly vulnerable Buckeyes before prepping for this one. That doesn’t always lead to success however (see: Ohio State off a bye week against USC). I tend to think Hoover can exploit a somewhat-improved-but-still-meh Trojan defense. I also don’t expect IU to sit back in zone and never bring pressure, something Matt Patricia suddenly does almost exclusively. The Hoosiers don’t have last year’s horses to make this one a cakewalk, but they still have enough in the stable to tamp down any talk of Lincoln Riley joining the ranks of elite coaches. Hoosiers hold firm late. USC: 23—IU: 31

Texas Longhorns @ Louisiana State University Tigers

Draper: Good God, I have no idea. Back to the fatal flaw theory we have Arch and his schizophrenic streak for the Horns and…whatever is happening in Baton Rouge. The Lane Train is the ultimate ‘huh’? The advanced stats and metrics absolutely LOVE LSU, but they’ve lost every game vs. a team with a pulse. Texas looks to continue the bounce back with Colin Simmons return to form. Pound for pound, I like the Texas roster more, but a night game is Baton Rouge is never a recipe for visiting success. Regardless, I’ve been burnt by Bayou Bengals one too many times. Texas has dropped 2 questionable games to mid teams, but have beaten all the big boys they’ve played. I expect another notch in the Longhorns belt here. Texas. Is. Back.UT: 24—LSU: 17

Hoying: Hand me my "fell for it again" award; I thought that Lane was finally going to get one over on a top team last week. And they should have; they outgained Bama 457-285! But two interceptions and 4 turnovers on downs (was Dan Lanning coaching the Tigers?) turned a likely win into a blowout loss. Texas meanwhile, has been...fine, scoring boring wins over boring teams like Missouri. I think we can definitively stick a fork in the Arch experiment, reaching lower heights than the Quinn Ewers experience, but as we saw last week LSU can get got by any team of reasonable talent playing disciplined football. I just don't think the Tigers are going to melt down two weeks in a row at home. The first UT falls out of the Playoff hunt (lol, just kidding, their prior bad losses mean nothing in the SEC); check in next week to see how the other one does against LSU. Hand me the award again...UT: 20--LSU: 28

Schweinfurth: The unlikeable coaches bowl. Kiffin and Sark are both very punchable. After getting burned by LSU last week, I don’t think I can pick them again. UT: 35—LSU: 24

Seeberg: Ah, Sark vs. Kiffin, the two ever-ascendant coaches that haven’t ascended much of anywhere, save one playoff semifinal ruined by the Sawyer Scoop and Score. LSU outgained Bama last week by over 150 yards, yet somehow lost by 18 points. Two turnovers and 0/4 on fourth downs will do that. Speaking of fourth downs, Sark is a couple of absurd fourth down conversions away from being 6-3 like Kiffin this year. Colin Simmons and Cam Coleman are back for Texas but it’s unknown how effective they’ll be. Bama managed just over 200 yards through the air with what is probably a better passing game than Arch possesses (except for one quarter against the Buckeyes, naturally). LSU has enough defense to win this one. The Kiffin Coaster continues as LSU bounces back. TX: 17—LSU: 24 

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Oh boy, we’ve got a fun one here. I have whiffed on Texas Tech almost the entire year (including the baffling loss at Nippert). The Pokes are a very fun team, but also make less than no sense—big loss to Tulsa, close losses to Houston and Iowa State but wins over Oregon and…well, that’s better than Texas Tech. Oklahoma State boasts the likely best passing QB in this class in Mestemaker and could make things very interesting. While looking at the game results, I notice a trend. Okie State’s losses have all been away from Stillwater. This game brings the Raiders into a night game with the paddles. This is the biggest game of the conference season by a mile, and I expect the Pokes to show out. No doubt about it, I’m ready to be wrong again.TT: 34—OkSt: 41

Hoying: All right, two mascots with guns (God bless America) and they're going to need them for the shootout this could turn out to be. We'll see if Tech has any points left in the hopper after spewing 53 last week to barely outpace West Virginia's 48. They'll need every point they can get as Okie State has put up 57, 49, and 66 points in their last three outings, although the Cowboys are only 2-1 in that span. The Pokes were the toast of college football back in September when they followed up a shocking season opening loss by knocking off Oregon, but that was before we learned that any team that can play a lick of defense and exercise basic offensive competence can clip the Ducks at home (nightmare nightmare nightmare). I don't really think the other (the real?) OSU can play a lick of defense anymore, but Jacob Rodriguez isn't walking back through that door for Texas Tech anytime soon either. Cowboy QB Drew Mestemaker keeps his dark, dark, Black Stallion dark horse Heisman campaign alive for another week while we all wait for Arthur Smith and Luke Fahey to give Jeremiah the damn ball, and Texas Tech suffers a fatal loss. TT: 31--OkSt: 34

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has been consistent the last two years. That defense travels well and keeps them in games. I expect more of the same. TTU: 42—OkSt:28

Seeberg: I wasn’t aware of this until just now, but Iowa State hung 51 on the Cowboys after scoring just ONE FIELD GOAL against Arizona. They can score, but I can’t imagine them getting enough stops to win this one. Red Raiders late. TTU: 38—OkSt: 31

Northwestern Wildcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Once more into the breach.  The season for OSU has been nowhere near the preseason expectations (although many Buckeye fans saw 2-3 losses with this Murderer’s Row of a schedule—and without a Heisman finalist QB??), but 2 goals remain: 1) Get 4 the Heisman and, as always, 2) Beat TTUN.  This game will tell us if the team has fully thrown in the towel or if there is a ounce of pride left.  Honestly, hindsight has Texas as a choke job, USC as a weather/freshman QB/defense what? Game, and Oregon as wtf happened to the defense??? While Northwestern has been a revelation under Chip Kelly (please come home good sir), they have been sputtering as of late.  Aiden Chiles is out which means Matty P has absolutely no excuses for being run over.  Backup QB and a SUBSTANTIAL talent advantage.  Chip can scheme a bit and they’ll likely score, but there is no reason for North-freaking-western to come into the Shoe and exert semblance of will.  On the other side of the ball, it comes down to 2 things: 1) O-line…get your crap together.  Last week was a travesty and cannot happen again….ever.  and 2) Get. The. Ball. To. 4.  Again. And again. And again.  I’ll be SHOCKED if JJ has fewer than 2 tuddies in this game because the rest of the season is for him.  The goals of the season technically remain alive (if on life support), but the goals for wrecking scUM and getting another Heisman are there for the taking.  NW: 16—OSU: 34

Hoying: You could be forgiven for climbing up onto the ledge at this point. God bless the Boy Scouts of America for ensuring that I didn't see any of last week's debacle, because I honestly don't know what I'd take away from what seemed to be such a feckless outing for the Scarlet and...Scarlet. I sure as hell wouldn't want to be playing Michigan this week; their program may be an even bigger disappointment than ours this season but at least one of their units (defense) knows what it's doing on the field. I don't really know what options you have on offense if your line can't block, and that's before we consider that Montgomery and Daniels might not even be ready to go this week. Still, there are reasons to be optimistic. I never thought I would fear to face Aiden Chiles after what Ohio State did to Michigan State back in 2024 but the comforting fact remains that Northwestern is suddenly at the same point on their QB depth chart that Ohio State is. No matter what wizardry Chip Kelly can conjure, it's usually true that Jimmys and Joes beat X's and O's, even if Ohio State is vomiting Z's and Q's onto the field instead. Never forget that it was a Chip Kelly offense that served up arguably the worst loss in Ohio State history on their way to their most recent natty. Northwestern is still going to have to play their A-game to beat the Buckeyes this weekend, even while the home team is still scrambling for answers. I guess that works in our favor as the Wildcats won't really know what to expect from Ohio State on either side of the ball, except that the defense will look totally lost if Northwestern lines up unbalanced or snaps the ball with more than 20 seconds on the play clock. At this point you should probably just ask Jeremiah Smith what he wants to do since he's the only captain who seems to be worth a damn or give a damn, and just chucking the ball up to him 20-25 times a game can't possibly be worse that what we've seen the last two weeks. Just once before he leaves I'd like for us to be able to say that we lost a game because we asked Jeremiah to do too much (no, Texas doesn't count, that was the defense falling apart in the 4th quarter). I never thought that when RJ Day committed to Northwestern that we'd ever have to fear losing to him. The groundwork better not be laid for such a dark future this Saturday. NW: 20--OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: *sigh* I don’t even know where to begin with this team. It’s not one thing, that’s fixable. It’s everything. From the play calling to the players. We all know the standard and this ain’t it. It’s not a totally lost season, but this stupidity needs to end now. Northwestern’s running game worries me a bit. They pounded Penn State into a pulp. Stop the run and they don’t have much else. Stop the stupid “confusion” alignment and let the LBs play down hill. It’s in there, the coaches just need to get out of the way. NW: 17—OSU:28

Seeberg: Gotta be honest here, if Aidan Chiles were healthy this game felt like a toss-up. The defense refuses to attack, the offense, well, the other OC would be ashamed of the current state of things. This is the first game where talent isn’t similar since Sayin’s injury. Even a fast, 14-0 start against Oregon didn’t hold up. This win feels oddly necessary across the board. JJ’s passion HAS to translate to other members. This is not the most fiery bunch. Play fast, play with passion, and as Mufasa said “Remember who you are.” 15 touches for #4, get Kenyatta the heck out of coverage, and get back into the win column. NW: 17–OSU: 27

Upset Special
Draper: Duke over Miami
Hoying: Arkansas over South Carolina
Schweinfurth: Baylor over BYU
Seeberg: Kansas State over TCU

Week 10: Go B1G or Go Home

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 24-14 (1-8 upset)
1.) Draper 24-14 (3-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 23-15 (3-6 upset)
4.) Hoying 21-17 (1-8 upset)

We knew the 2026 Ohio State season was a murderer's row, and the Buckeyes have now taken two shots to the stomach (but they're still alive!). Four more wins achieves one of the eternal three goals and punches a ticket to Indianapolis to chase the second. But the margin of error for the third is now zero in so, so many ways. 

Meanwhile, another monster weekend ensures that another smattering of top 15 teams will find themselves careening down the rankings.

Brigham Young University Cougars @ Utah Utes

Draper: The Holy War is in full force with a top 10 matchup for the second year in a row.  BYU took their predictable loss at UCF after the high of beating Notre Dame, but the hate will be strong in this one.  Utah has defied expectations all year and just keeps punching and emerging victorious.  The question is: will Bear be able to have the type of game he had in Provo 2 weeks back?  The game is in Rice Eccles, but the stakes are through the roof.  A loss by BYU might be a death knell for their playoff hopes (which seems crazy).  Utah could weather a loss, but it puts the season on edge.  I think the Cougs get it together and pull out another Holy War victory, this time in hostile environs.  BYU: 27--Utah: 24

Hoying: Welcome to the game of the Big 12 season. As in, the only top-level one, because neither of these teams has Texas Tech on the schedule. We've already seen BYU succeed on the biggest stage this season, but that was in front of an amped up LaVell Edwards Stadium crowd. The Cougs played with their hair on fire and still barely pulled out a win over Notre Dame that could easily have been a loss. Utah has played some puzzlingly close games against Houston and at Colorado but have more or less looked the part, including no faceplants against conference also-rans like UCF. The Utes have one of the most devastating attacks in the country, balanced between air and ground, and the Cougars have only been...OK on the other side of the ball. Snoop Huntley may not know how to beat the Bengals, but he knows how this one is going to turn out. BYU: 20--Utah: 27

Schweinfurth: I’ve been hating on both of these teams, so it hurts that I actually have to pick one. I am still not sure either of teams is actually good, but I do feel that BYU is better. I’ll go with my gut. BYU: 31—Utah: 20

Seeberg: Still not sold on either of these teams. Such is the NIL world, everyone is noticeably flawed. Utah played a one-possession game at home against the only team of consequence(?) they have played all year in Houston. Rivalry games produce chaos. I don’t think the Utes handle chaos particularly well. Bear and Cougs make the Big 12 a 2-team conference. BYU: 24—Utah: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State University Tigers

Draper: Death Valley is prepared for another huge matchup...but both teams have 2 losses.  The Lane Train has been the flavor of the year despite the actual on-field product and Bama is getting the 2010s Saban treatment because...reasons?  I do believe that Bama has the better team, but it's close AND the home field is enormous.  Let's not go crazy here as neither team is terrible nor unbeatable, but the repercussions of this game have huge implications (for a sane committee).  A loss may not knock Bama out (super close loss vs UGA and win over UK) but LSU has nothing redeeming in their resume so far.  A 3 loss Bama might make it in....a 3 loss LSU would need a miracle at this point.  What would be the best outcome for the SECommittee? Close win by LSU.  That's the script and I'm sticking to it.  Bama: 24--LSU: 27

Hoying: There was a time when the college football world revolved around this game. We're not quite back there yet (see the Holy War above of all games taking precedence) but Lane has restored the Tigers back to Playoff contention while Alabama is at least another two or three losses away from any danger of being left out this year. LSU has had some game results this season that while looking odd at the time (blowing out Clemson and A&M? losing to Kentucky?) have in hindsight pretty much reflected exactly how good LSU's opposition was in those games. Alabama's been pretty steady except for getting run out of the building against Tennessee (take note, Buckeye fans and Committee members, that is what a nasty loss looks like). We've reached a future where LSU is more disciplined than Alabama, which feels insane to say, but I trust the Tigers more in a big game. Things won't get any easier next week with Texas coming to town, but the train's not slowing down yet. Bama: 17--LSU: 20

Schweinfurth: I have watched exactly zero SEC football this year, and my life is better for that. While I’m not sure what LSU has, I just don’t trust Bama without Saban. Prove me wrong. Bama 24—LSU: 35

Seeberg: I’m not overthinking things here. Kiffin is 1-7 against top ten teams. He’s going to find a way to squander this opportunity. Bama late. Bama: 31—LSU: 24

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: And here is a better matchup than the one above without the names.  Kentucky has been living on borrowed time for weeeeeks (see also: Indiana).  Will Stein's crew is finding ways for the Cardiac Cats to pull it out, but they have to travel to Neyland and a very angry Vol team after theIR questionable at best treatment in the CFP rankings.  The loss to South Carolina was a head-scratcher, but the Cocks do this every year.  They can hang their hats on a BLOWOUT of Bama, but apparently, no one saw that game.  It feels like now that basketball season has begun, it's time for the Wildcats to turn in the cleats and move to the gym.  Vol Nation makes a statement and the SEC threatens 20 teams in the top 10 this week.  UK: 17--UT: 30

Hoying: And now for the teams that beat the ones above. Kentucky has been living a charmed life this season, scraping by South Carolina and LSU in overtime before using a flurry of turnovers to escape Oklahoma. Meanwhile Tennessee's horrific passing game finally caught up to them last week just in time for them to bust South Carolina out of their slump. The good news for the Vols is that Kentucky's air attack isn't any great shakes either, and the Wildcats have a much worse defense to go with it. Kentucky's luck has to run out at some point, and no better time and place than Neyland (central) this Saturday. UK: 20--UT: 30

Schweinfurth: Kentucky has been a nice story, but it should end this week. Both teams go back to SEC meh. UK: 17—UT: 28

Seeberg: Is Kentucky a football school now? Their southerly neighbors may put a stop to that. Anyone who saw the Vols shut down Bama at home knows that when they get even decent play on that side of the ball they’re tough to beat (unless they only throw for 136 yards- see last week at SC). Back at home in a rivalry game with some juice this year, however, should be a bounce back for TN and a reality check for the Wildcats. UK: 13—TN: 24

Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Well, well, well.  Both teams enter their one true test of the season and the only difference is Miami was bailed out by the refs on a Hail Mary while the Irish were screwed by a no call.  Regardless, the storyline starts and ends with Malachi Toney missing the game in South Bend.  Mensah is a fantastic QB, but the fire is lit with the star receiver.  With the injury, Miami will need to step up the run game and find production elsewhere.  Notre Dame joins Tennessee and OSU on the 'huh?' list of the CFP rankings.  Because of their current position and the schedule the rest of the way, this MIGHT be a playoff game in November.  A loss makes a top 12 finish difficult and a win almost makes it a certainty.  With the backs against the wall, the Irish will leave it all on the field.  Honestly, it comes down to whether they play loose and free or tight and nervous.  I think they are going to be super tight, but eventually relax and hold Mark Fletcher in check.  It's going to be a tight one, but the Irish pull off the most important win of their season.  Miami: 17--ND: 20

Hoying: But for potentially a missed pass interference call and an extra second on the clock, this could have been a #1 vs. #2 matchup. But as it stands, Notre Dame tumbled all the way down to #11 in the initial Playoff rankings, as losing to BYU wiped out their only chance at a quality win to date. And there aren't any better opportunities after this weekend either, not even a conference championship game to potentially bolster a thin resume. So it's win or go home for the Irish against one of their Pop-Tart inducing nemeses from last season: the Miami Hurricanes. The Canes are a little less scary now that their do-it-all Heisman impostor Malachi Toney is out for the rest of the regular season (and possibly beyond). You thought Julian Sayin was locked onto one target: Toney has 73 receptions this season to the next highest 28 from Cooper Barkate (who?). At least the running game should still work with the two-headed monster of Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher (remember him?). Unfortunately, on the other side of the ball, it's Miami who struggles to stop the pass, and Irish QB CJ (not Tommy) Carr has been quite effective this season. The Irish have had some trouble defending the red zone this season, which is where the Miami offense thrives, but the loss of Toney will be too much to overcome. Notre Dame continues their campaign to take a Playoff spot from a much more deserving 3- or 4- loss SEC team, or possibly someone closer to home. Miami: 20--ND: 34

Schweinfurth: I don’t buy the theory that Malachi Toney is going to play. The dude had surgery. So, can Miami actually function without Toney? They only target him about 1,000,000 times a game. Notre Dame plays great defense and should be able to contain the Canes without their best weapon. Miami: 17—ND: 38

Seeberg: Can Marcus Freeman finally win a regular season game of consequence? Signs point to…probably? It’s at home against a clearly flawed #1 Hurricanes squad. It’s cold, it’s at night, it’s the perfect recipe, but the perfect recipe seems necessary for Freeman to win these games. The icing on the cake, however, is the absence of Malachi Toney, a shoo-in for the 2027 Biletnikoff (and would be this year if it weren’t for the alien wearing #4 in Columbus). I still think it’s close, I still think Freeman coaches tight, but I trust Carr more than Toney-less Mensah. It’s close, but perhaps the most insufferable fan base in the country gets to yap until probably the playoff semis, give or take a round. UM: 16—ND: 20

Oregon Ducks @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye Nation needs to take a moment....actually, they need to take two moments.  Last Saturday sucked....it just plain sucked.  They were the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked.  But. There are no teams who have played the gauntlet we have, just lost their Heisman finalist QB, and are still in the running.  All is not lost, but the 3 most glaring issues that need to be solved from a coaching aspect are: 1) Motivation (we were sleepwalking through all 60 minutes), 2) tempo (simplify the playbook and move--even with a freshman), and 3) RUN THE FREAKING SNEAK FROM THE 1 IN LINE EVERY SINGLE TIME.  The defense was atrocious, but USC has a very good offense.  Oregon won't have the same firepower with Raiola under center and half the WR room in traffic court.  Absolutely need to clean up that side of the ball (Matty P...earn your paycheck).  On the other side, there were plenty of bright spots for Fahey.  He was raw and missed some throws, but key drops by Bo and Henry with the poor weather didn't help.  Arthur needs to remember that JJ is on the team either as a decoy or the best player in the country and stop the timid playcalling.  Don't sling it all game, but mix it up (and for God's sake, drop the 3 TE packages).  The Buckeye NEED the support of the crowd.  All the haters piling on Ryan Day need to shut up and get behind this team.  If they poop themselves again, you can bring the slings and arrows, but don't do it when all our goals are in front of us.  Most started the year hoping and praying for no more than 2 losses. Well, we haven't passed that number yet. The ship is righted and we start November with a clean slate.  Ore: 20--OSU: 31

Hoying: Okay, everyone down off the ledge. Yes, a lot of things went wrong on Saturday night. The defense completely broke down for two long plays for the first time all year, Fahey missed some open throws, the pass blocking gave him no time to operate, everything leading up to and happening during that punt from plus territory, the penalties, the penalties, the PENALTIES. But these are fixable. Down to down, play to play, the Buckeyes looked pretty good, we were just too frustrated to see it because OSU was trailing from the starting gun and was never a threat to retake the lead after that awful punt play. At times like this, we should avoid being prisoners of the moment. Last week for Ohio State looked a lot like USC two weeks ago, where everything goes wrong and you lose to an inferior opponent on the road. This week we get an Oregon team that by has every reason to be much more demoralized than we are, and while they battled valiantly to come back to beat Northwestern the alarm bells should still be ringing in Eugene. I don't think you can fix a moribund offense midseason (one-offs like the 2024 Michigan game notwithstanding) so I'm hesitant to put much stock in Dylan Raiola and the 441 yards the Ducks put up against Northwestern. We haven't seen Ohio State in true desperation mode since the start of the magical 2024 Playoff run, and while this team isn't quite as stacked as that one was, especially now at QB, the pieces are there to put a good 5-game run together to earn a favorable Playoff draw and buy some more time before the Miami's, Georgia's, and Notre Dame's of the world come calling. For now, lean on that improving run game, give Fahey time to find the open guys (I swear they were open or would have been open against USC if he had another half-second), and get the real MVP Jay Timmons back on the field to anchor a less-than-flashy bend-but-don't-break defense. We're going to be fine. For now. Ore: 13--OSU: 23

Schweinfurth: Fahey was fine last week. Full stop. Play calling and defensive execution were not. There haven’t been many games where I’ve sat back at halftime and actually believed the game was over. It’s fine. I thought this was a 10-2 football team from the start, and here we are. Oregon has struggled, and I mean really struggled at times on offense. The defense isn’t great either and teams have moved it on them. I expect a desperate, angry football team. Day tends to swing for the fences when his back is against the wall like this. Bucks win, and start to resemble themselves. Ore: 17—OSU: 38

Seeberg: The state of the 2026 football Buckeyes can be summed up thusly: our fate relies- to a terrifyingly high degree- on two true freshmen. Depth is gone. Players aren’t being developed anywhere except LB and maybe safety. Timmons is already Caleb Downs light, and this unit doesn’t have 2 top 10 LBs and a game wrecker at DT to make his life easier. Ryan Day’s losses against talent-equated teams almost read like parodies of themselves at this point: Lousy special teams, lousy red zone play calling and execution, next to no urgency when needed on offense. Rinse, lather, repeat. In comes an equally wounded Ducks squad with one major advantage: an experienced backup QB. Raiola has started one more game in the Shoe than Fahey, and he darn near pulled the upset, losing 21-17 (a game I attended actually) with a far less talented supporting cast. He’s not a threat to run, but the silver bullets have all but forgotten how to rush the passer with only 11 sacks all year. Kenyatta Jackson spends almost as much time in coverage as with his ears pinned back (still better than Calhoun in coverage though). The last inexcusable loss triggered a player-led “F this S” meeting that resulted in a natty run. Not the case here. 42-17 isn’t coming, BUT I do think Patricia can get some things corrected. Can Fahey get us to 20? Just. Will that be enough? Barely. Rebellions are built on hope. Ore: 17—OSU: 20

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Texas Tech
Hoying: Minnesota over UCLA
Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Iowa
Seeberg: Michigan State over Michigan 

Week 9: Jeremiah's Odyssey

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 22-12 (1-7 upset)
2.) Draper 21-13 (3-5 upset)
3.) Seeberg 20-14 (3-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 18-16 (1-7 upset)

Much like the Greeks spending 10 long years on the shores of the outskirts of Ilion, the Buckeyes have spent a long time waiting for the opportunity to sack the Trojans. Hopefully, for the first time in ages, they finally have the horses to do it.

Arizona Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: Are the Wildcats for real? Did Texas Tech just drop a fluke in Cincinnati or were they exposed? I think it's a little bit of both for both teams.  Arizona has quietly navigated a Big 12 schedule with only one loss (to BYU on the road).  They also destroyed UC who just beat the Raiders, but their best win is....West Virginia or Cincinnati...yawn.  Texas Tech had been begging for a loss and it finally caught up to them in Nippert, but I tend to think they have more 'dudes'.  Their best win is in Corvallis vs the only team in the state of Oregon receiving AP votes.  In a tight game like this, I'll favor the home team, but I think it's going to be a weird one.  Zona: 24--TTU: 30

Hoying: We've reached the "gotta rank somebody" portion of the season (which, as far as the Big 12 is concerned may as well be the entire season) so get ready for Texas Tech to host ranked Arizona. The Wildcats' main claim to fame is obliterating the Cincinnati team that just pantsed the Red Raiders last weekend. The collapse of the new-look Red Raiders' air of Big 12 invincibility has put them into a bit of a panic mode. TTech is considering platooning the QB position now that the endless eligible/ineligible struggle between the NCAA and the American legal system has flipped back to "let 'em play" and 5th-year senior QB Thomas Castellanos (go Noles) can take the field again. Neither Tech QB is quite Brendan Soresby but at least we can expect some deep throws to left if Castellanos is behind center. I'd be inclined to pick Arizona on a neutral field, but the home team saved me in the Utah/Houston tossup last week so let's keep rolling with that logic. Zona: 17--TTU: 23

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech's defense has been enough to carry them so far this year. I don't see why that won't continue this week. Zona: 14--TTU: 21

Seeberg: Well, Texas Tech’s mediocre QB play finally caught up to them last week as Will Hammond was good for 6 yards per attempt, no TDs and a pick in their upset loss down in the 513. Now the ranked(?) Wildcats come to town, their only loss at BYU, a game they led at half. Had the Red Raiders not “got got” last week I would say they were primed to fall in this one. However, BYU shut out Arizona in the second half of their contest, and Tech has a good enough defense to emulate much of that. Should be a good one, Tech survives. Zona: 17—TTU: 20

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party used to be must see TV....now? no one cares.  I would honestly not be surprised if the Dr. Jekyll UF team showed up and beat the Dawgs, but that's not the highest of probability events.  Georgia was exposed in Jordan-Hare as average like the rest of the teams in CFB since no one is good.  Regardless, I expect Kirby and squad to return to power here.  Fla: 13--UGA: 23

Hoying: I feel like Georgia is easy to peg as one of the best teams in college football this year: good enough to win all their games but look out for the occasional faceplant. Good luck figuring out Florida though. The offense is pretty good (unless it's blowing up against Ole Miss or stifled against Missouri), but the defense is a horror show (unless it's shutting down Texas). Back in the days of twice-in-a-lifetime coaches like Urban and Spurrier, it didn't matter how good Georgia was; they were going to lose to the Gators. But I'm not sure Jon Sumrall is that same level of elite. Lots of teams have had their moments in the sun this season, and Florida's has already come and gone, in rather ugly fashion. As a football program, Florida strikes me as consistently mediocre except when elevated by the two shining stars I already mentioned. That's where I'm going to keep them until I see something truly special from the coaching staff or a real game changer on the field. Florida doesn't have either right now. They have QB Aaron Philo back but that didn't save them against Missouri or South Carolina. Dawgs roll. Fla: 20--UGA: 31

Schweinfurth: Everyone was in love with the Gators to start this year. Now they've turned into random SEC team B. Not an elite team and not a bad team, just a mushy middle team. Georgia on the other hand is speeding (like what I did there?) their way to another SEC championship and a first round playoff bye. Yea, it's a rivalry game, but the Dawgs are the much better team here. Fla: 17--UGA: 35

Seeberg: Assuming the hangover from the Bama game is complete now, I think, offensive inconsistencies aside, UGA is just plain better. The Gators are an absolute roller coaster this year but they need four quarters of their best ball to win this one and I don’t think they’re capable. Go Dogs. Fla: 17—UGA: 27

Northwestern Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: This is the best game of the day (outside of LA -- maybe), and I just have no good take on it.  The 6-1 Northwestern Wildcats go to Eugene to face the 4-3 Oregon Ducks who are reeling like crazy...but favored!  No matter the result here, the Duck faithful have to be incredibly disappointed with their season while it's pure house money for the Wildcats.  Chip Kelly has the Northwestern offense flying high (why didn't we get him back again?) but this is a must win for Dan Lanning and the Ducks before their trip to <checks schedule> Columbus next week....yikes.  Honestly, this feels like a return to normalcy game to me.  Northwestern will scrap the hell out of it, but the Autzen Zoo will be too much.  It's like when Cignetti brought the Hoosiers there last year....the difference is NW doesn't have the horses like Indiana did.  NW: 24--Ore: 27

Hoying: If you're going to watch two games this weekend, make this the second one, because you'll get some great insight into what the Buckeyes will face during their upcoming home slate. This one is probably going to come down to whether Oregon can pick itself up off the mat and finish the season. Something is really rotten in Eugene, with the awful playcalling selling games the Ducks should easily win or the alcohol-induced wide receiver street racing at 7 AM (and not because they're getting up early). At least the Ducks finally fired offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer after trotting out abominations like this. Nobody tell Michigan you're allowed to do that. Northwestern's been better than anyone gave them a right to be this season, but they've been beating up on the dregs of the college football world and didn't look all that great against awful awful Michigan State. Dan Lanning may fade in the biggest matchups but I don't think he's a chump. He'll be able to put the band back together for one last hurrah before getting his doors blown off next week. NW: 20--Ore: 24

Schweinfurth: I am not sold on either team here. Oregon is getting the Dan Lanning reckoning he deserves. Northwestern has come out of nowhere to have a ridiculous running game (hello Chip Kelly). The Ducks seem to be demoralized and watching the season slipping away. Honestly, I don't think they have the heart to fight here. Northwestern's run game demoralizes another team. NW: 24--Ore: 21

Seeberg: Yet another game where any outcome feels plausible. If you had NW as the only ranked team in this one preseason, no you didn’t (or you have Marty Mcfly’s reference book). Northwestern is good. Chip can still play-call the college level with the best of them. Their TE has 11 catches all season, but had SEVEN FOR ONE FORTY in their close loss at IU. If any matchup actually favors the Wildcats, Chip will exploit it. The talent gap, however, is wide and a cross-country trip can be disorienting, though west-coast teams seem to struggle more than the other way around. Oregon should lean on the run. Their two main backs had 27 carries for 175 against Illinois and Lee Bebee went for over 200 against the Wildcats. Assuming they’re smart enough to not let Raiola beat them, the Ducks do just enough to get back on track before heading to Columbus. Yay. NW: 17—Ore: 22

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ University of Southern California Trojans

Draper: The Buckeyes return to action without their field general behind center.  There is mass panic in the streets, but let's not pretend Sayin was lighting the scoreboard on fire last time we saw him (and no, Sayin is the starter if/when healthy you jackals).  All this talk about not naming a QB until today was all smoke and mirrors getting Tavien to bring it in practice.  Fahey was always the guy, but you always need to be ready for emergencies.  One thing I do know, #4 will still be on the Buckeye side which provides a massive advantage.  The key here is that USC's defense is just terrible.  Their offense is very good, but so is our defense.  I expect some points to be put up by the Trojans which will lead to all Buckeye Nation clamoring for blood, but if Timmons doesn't go, it will be tough to keep them out of the endzone.  Thankfully, this is a nice ease in for Fahey defensively and there won't be any opposing fans there to cause problems.  It will be a little dicey early (expect an early 3 and out or a turnover, but the Bucks will settle in and Bo will have a day.  OSU: 34--USC: 20

Hoying: The Buckeyes enter a house of horrors on Halloween night. This was the matchup I was most looking forward to in the new amalgamous Big [number] due to the history between these teams, but the Buckeyes would rather leave the Los Angeles chapter out of the history books. Ohio State hasn't won at the Coliseum since 1946. They haven't scored a touchdown there since 1949. But the ghosts of John McKay and Pete Carroll are long gone from the SC sidelines. Yes, Lincoln Riley stormed into Columbus in his head coaching debuted and facilitated Baker's flag planting beatdown but his tenure with the Trojans has been disappointing at best. I mean, this year Oregon backup QB Dylan Raiola entered mid-game against the Trojans and looked like Trevor Lawrence, and that's the only time he's looked half competent all season (or maybe in his entire career). That's good news for newly minted Ohio State starting QB Luke Fahey, who probably never dreamed that his warmup game would be against one of the unquestioned blue chip programs in the history of the sport. Under other circumstances, this could have been a trap game for the Buckeyes, as the Trojans have the pieces to be dangerous despite this season's missteps. But now SC has the Buckeyes' full attention, not unlike Texas last year. And just like Texas last year, Ohio State can win even if their brand new starting QB doesn't ball out. And let's not worry too much about the rest of the season either. Julian Sayin played the worst game of his career to date (maybe his entire career period with the way things are looking), and the Buckeyes still knocked off the defending national champions on the road. The offense just needs to learn the lesson the defense took to heart after the Illinois game: do your job and don't try to play hero ball. Except Jeremiah, you do all the heroic things. Absent a lot of mistakes from behind center, this one shouldn't be a problem. Troy delenda est. OSU: 27--USC: 16

Schweinfurth: Where do we begin. USCs passing defense is bad, I mean really bad. Jeramiah could go for 300 yards this week, even with a freshman QB. This won't be the pack of wolves Fahey was thrown into at Indiana. That poor kid looked like a deer caught in the headlights. Day has had two weeks to get him prepped for this and figure out how Fahey moves the offense. The defense will get tested a bit. USC can, and will, stretch the field. Just keep it simple for Fahey and throw it to #4. He'll be open all day. OSU: 35--USC: 17

Seeberg: I…am conflicted on this one. On one hand, Day refusing to name a starting QB makes it harder for the Trojans’ semblance of a defense to game plan. However, if Day actually doesn’t know who the starter will be, that’s concerning. I’m assuming Fahey since he clearly passed St. Clair on the depth chart and his skill set seems similar to Julian’s so the plans won’t require as much tweaking. I BEG Ryan to show him Joe Germaine highlights. Phenomenal accuracy, average arm strength, but still hit deep balls in stride by getting the ball out early. Siereveld back helps, but Timmons popping up as questionable again is scary (for the love of all things holy do NOT leave Calhoun on an island). Get JJ involved in any way possible, bend but don’t break on D, and get out of Pasadena with a W. OSU: 27—USC: 20

Upset Special
Draper: North Carolina over Miami
Hoying: Cincinnati over Utah
Schweinfurth: Minnesota over Indiana
Seeberg: Virginia over Wake Forest

Week 8: Hello, Good Bye

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 20-10 (0-7 upset)
2.) Draper 19-11 (2-5 upset)
3.) Seeberg 18-12 (2-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 16-14 (1-6 upset)

It's never fun to go a football weekend without seeing the Buckeyes take the field, but Buckeye Nation can and should heave a sigh of relief that the season second half gauntlet gives one last chance to rest up, kick the tires, and put in the plan for the stretch run. 

Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: The Wolverine faithful finally have a changing of the guard as their $12 million dollar man has been shown the door. Is Carr the savior they are hoping for? I lean....no...but it might be better than Underwood. Regardless, IU may be beat up after last week's loss, but they are far better than the Maize and Blue.; Hoover was atrocious vs. OSU but a lot of this can be attributed to Matt Patricia and Co. scUM has a very good defense, but I don't think they're going to be able to move the ball against the grown men on the Hoosier defense. Expect a low scoring affair, but there is no reason for IU to slip up. IU: 20--UM: 10

Hoying: How sure are we that (i) Indiana is good, and (ii) Michigan is bad? I feel more confident about (ii) than (i). Racking up all of 21 points at home against Penn State isn't really moving the needle. Yeah, the offense looked better after the QB switch, but this is the same Lion defense that got absolutely run over by Northwestern. I don't expect the Wolverines to find much room on the ground against the Hoosier front. So, much like last week, the outcome hinges on whether Indiana can move the ball. Josh Hoover missed a good amount of throws last week even when not being pressured, and he seemed to be racking up damage as the game progressed, even though the Indiana injury report for this week is magically completely blank. We've seen that late game end zone magic favors Michigan and not Indiana this season, but I'm thinking the Hoosiers can put the game out of reach before that becomes an issue. Late score keeps it close. IU: 24--Mich: 20

Schweinfurth: Indiana is like a cockroach. You seriously can’t kill them if there is time on the clock. Every game seems close and somehow the Hoosiers come out with a win (except last week. Ball don’t lie). The Bucks did a good job keeping the IU running backs in check. Hoover won’t have another game like last week. The UM defense is good, but I don’t know if they are as good as Ohio States. UM will have to move the ball and that could be a problem. IU wins late, again. IU: 21—Mich: 17

Seeberg: If you are unfortunate enough to have a Twitter feed replete with college football talk this time of year you will see a lot of false hope from fan bases, often bordering on the delusional. Such is the case with our neighbors to the north, new hope injected in the form of benching their $12 million quarterback. However, an angry IU team is rolling in and that team made Sayin look pedestrian. Good luck in your first start against that front Tommy. Hoosiers roll. IU: 24—UM: 13

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Draper: Iowa was the flavor of the month before they returned to Earth after OSU took care of business. Regardless, you might need to have a talk with your children about 'playoff Iowa' given their schedule. This is a tricky game for the Hawkeyes to navigate under the blood god, PJ Fleck. I still lean to the Hawkeye defense and tight ends..but don't be surprised if the Gophers make this interesting.  Iowa: 20--Minn: 17

Hoying: UCLA continues to occupy the top spot in the Big Ten standings, but Iowa is hanging around, ready to snap up a Big Ten championship berth and even a potential Playoff spot if they can navigate the rest of their schedule. You might think that the days of Iowa going to Indianapolis died with the Big Ten West. I would respond with the Hawkeyes' remaining schedule: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska. Look familiar? Iowa already navigated Ohio State and Michigan and trip to the west coast with only one blemish; now they're right back where they belong. Minnesota, like Iowa, showed some flashes of brilliance against Michigan and Iowa, but getting blasted by Purdue last week didn't really inspire confidence. Keep an eye on this year's bizarre Big Ten race; the unbalanced schedules are really making their presence known this year. Iowa: 31--Minn: 20

Schweinfurth: Iowa looks like a legit playoff contender this year. That defense is good. Minnesota has had some nice moments, but PJ Fleck has a ceiling. In typical Iowa fashion, low scoring and a rock fight, the Hawks win. Iowa: 21—Minn: 10

Seeberg: Is Minnesota good? Sometimes. Is Iowa good? Nearly always. The Hawkeyes consistency over four quarters is the difference here. A few too many gopher mistakes are all the black and yellow will need. Iowa: 27—Minn: 13

Mississippi Rebels @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Sneaky game in Austin as the Rebels invade with Chambliss looking like he might will his team to the playoff.  While Ole Miss is on the upswing, Texas is down BAD. Losses to OU in the Red River Shootout and blowing a lead vs. the Jekyll and Hyde Gators have placed the Horns on the brink of....dare I say it...playoff elimination? While Texas MAY be able to navigate a 3rd loss, it would be extremely precarious. The rest of the SEC has shown that a 2nd loss 'ain't no thang' so long as you're in the right conference. I think I'm going to regret this, but Texas has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. I can't see them dropping another with their backs against the wall. Arch plays average, but the Longhorn defense makes Trinidad turn the ball over.Hook them.Miss: 20--UT: 27

Hoying: I've almost given up trying to figure out the SEC. Texas has gone from a strong #1 ranking with two ranked wins that only keep getting better, to back-to-back faceplants against middling competition. Arch appears to have crested, to the point that Sark was discussing splitting reps with backup KJ Lacey this week. Meanwhile Ole Miss slammed the door on the Missouri running game on their way to a total rout. I don't know if I can trust the Texas passing game to outscore Ole Miss in this one. I would say Texas is a tough place to play but apparently that's only true if it's 150 degrees on the field. The long Longhorn skid continues, with no end in sight. Miss: 27--UT: 20

Schweinfurth: Look, all the noise around Arch Manning is a nothing burger. However, there are a lot of Longhorns out of this game. That could be rough for the Longhorns here. A loss here and Sark’s seat turns into an inferno. Regardless, Texas is desperate and should play that way. Texas should win, unless their Longhorn AI gets involved (so dumb). Miss: 24—UT: 31

Seeberg: This one has all the feel of a Longhorn bounce back game, save for the laundry list of injuries they are dealing with, Colin Simmons chief among them. Sark can’t fix the offense, and the defensive injuries mean they won’t get enough stops. Run Rebs run. Miss: 31—UT: 20

Houston Cougars @ Utah Utes

Draper:The Utes are the undefeated team no one knows or cares..but one look at their schedule would make Notre Dame blush.The sheer number of cupcakes thus far are astounding. Dampier is a very good QB, but I don't have a lot of faith that they can keep this streak going all year. The Cougs only loss is a close one vs the Big12 preseason top dog Texas Tech. Rice Eccles is a tough place to play, but I feel like the Cougars are battle tested. Houston pulls the upset and clears the path for the other Cougars and Red Raiders. UH: 27--Utah: 20

Hoying: For the second week in a row, the college football world revolves around the state of Utah. And just like BYU last week, Utah has played a half-dozen wet sacks of garbage coming into this one. Of course, that didn't stop the Cougars last week and it doesn't have to stop the Utes here. The Houston defense has been suspect all season, which is a real problem when you're playing a Ute team that can hurt you through the air or on the ground. I'm not going to pick against the home team with the home crowd having all day to get whipped into a frenzy. The gravy train continues for Utah. UH: 24--Utah: 31

Schweinfurth: Look, I don’t know if either team can really hang with the elites. But it doesn’t matter. Utah lost a lot when Whittingham retired. I do think he kept that train rolling. I just don’t see it with what’s left now. Houston wins. UH: 35—Utah: 21

Seeberg: This is an intriguing one. Feels like these teams are pretty evenly matched. I do think Houston has a decent shot to make Utah one-dimensional as their run game isn’t great. Utah is always good at home though. I’m torn. When torn, go with the home team. UH: 24—Utah: 27

Upset Special
Draper: UCF over BYU
Hoying: Rutgers over Northwestern
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over USC
Seeberg: West Virginia over TCU

Week 7: Crimson and Over

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 17-8 (0-6 upset)
2.) Draper 16-9 (1-5 upset)
2.) Seeberg 16-9 (2-4 upset)
4.) Hoying 13-12 (1-5 upset)

The second half of the season kicks off not with a bang but with a volley, as eight teams within the top 15 face off against each other. But in the era of the 12-team playoff, none of these may mean as much as the Battle of Mid staging up north as two erstwhile powerhouses try to stay on course just to play 13.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Bama just got snakebitten in a truly even contest vs. the Dawgs last week (and they were hosed at the end).  Regardless, an L is and L and no one will care in 2 weeks.  Tennessee almost pulled off the upset at home vs. the Longhorns, but I don't know if they have enough in the tank without standout freshman QB Faizon Brandon.  This game will have HUGE implications for Kalen Deboer's future in Tuscaloosa.  Honestly, he cannot afford to drop this one.  Last week was a standstill, but this is a game you can drop when the team looks back to the top tier.  The Tide roll in Knoxville because you can't spell Citrus without UT (this joke makes a lot more sense back when bowls mattered).  Bama: 34--Tenn: 17

Hoying: Starting a true freshman at QB rarely works out well unless your name is Trevor Lawrence or Tua Tagovailoa. And it hasn't worked out well for Tennessee, who have been just ghastly through the air this season. Turning to RS freshman George MacIntyre after Faizon Brandon went down against Texas hasn't exactly helped matters either, as the Vols struggled to beat SEC basement dwellers Auburn and Arkansas. The run game is all right, certainly better than Alabama's, but the Tide didn't exactly dim their image with a hard-fought closely decided match against #1 Georgia last week. Tennessee does create a lot of havoc in the backfield, which leads to a lot of 3rd down stops, but we saw last week that Alabama QB Keelon Russell can create on his own even when his receivers aren't open. Things aren't going to get any easier for UT anytime soon, time to drop that fraudulent ranking off their name. Bama: 27--Tenn: 17

Schweinfurth: I’ve gotta say, Bama is pretty decent. A loss to Georgia really isn’t that big of a deal here. Meanwhile, Tennessee is who I thought they were. Meh. Bama should roll here and fire up the cigars. Bama: 35—Tenn: 10

Seeberg:  Not much needs said here. Bama is pretty solid, Tennessee is…meh? Bama pulls away in the second half. Bama: 31—Tenn: 17

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Why? Michigan appears to be returning to "what we thought they were" while Penn State just looks dead in the water.  This shows you the volatility of college football and the extreme success OSU has had over the last..60-70 years.  Franklin can't win the big one but wins 10 games every year...then they move on and it looks over.  TTUN may suck at offense (they do) but their defense is still pretty good.  I don't see how the Lions go on the road and score enough to matter.  I lean the under, but scUM gets a win they can pretend matters.  PSU: 10--UM: 17

Hoying: Wait, Penn State and Michigan are playing a game to see who gets to pull their season out of a nosedive? Tell me we're not reliving the dumbest year in modern history again! No, the calendar hasn't turned back to 2020, but these teams' fortunes have. Matt Campbell has brought Iowa State style mediocrity to Penn State, where the only happy thought in the valley is the upcoming schedule of trash after trash. But the Lions will have to get by Michigan first, who are facing the terrifying prospect of having their season highlight be a buzzer trailing Hail Mary victory against a directional MAC team. Whatever you want to say about Michigan, their defense is pretty great and would almost definitely not give up 413 yards on the ground to a Chip Kelly offense (don't ask me how I know). Yeah, Bryce Underwood is worse than worthless but the biggest beatdown the Wolverines ever put on PSU was when Wilton Speight was quarterback. Penn State doesn't really have anything to threaten Michigan with on either side of the ball, not even leading rusher...James Peoples?!? The Cheat Weasels continue their slog toward bowl eligibility. PSU: 20--UM: 24

Schweinfurth: Both of these teams suck. There, I said it. Yes, Penn State may have the people’s champ, but they aren’t great. Michigan is going to move off of Underwood here and start a freshman. Yikes. Enjoy the slop fest while we try to avoid the game traffic (in the forbidden city for a hockey tournament). PSU: 13—UM:14

Seeberg: Avert your eyes if you’re queasy, this one won’t be a pretty watch. I trust neither of these teams but still have a modicum of faith in Whittingham and home field advantage. Close enough. PSU: 13—UM: 17

Missouri Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: The SEC's Circle of Mid continues.  Win a huge game? Bomb the next... Mizzou look like they might be a team to look at to make a little noise....HAH! This feels like the trap that we keep falling into in SEC-country.  The Tigers roll into the Grove but Ole Miss already took out one set of Tigers, why not another? Chambliss feels due for another big game where he wills the so-so offense outside of him to a home victory.  Mizz: 20--Miss:37

Hoying: Does anybody know that this is a top 15 matchup? Does anybody really care? Ole Miss continues to garner a lot of praise for squeaking by Louisville (3-3) and LSU (4-2) before getting blasted by freefalling Florida. I'm getting the feeling that the farther they get from Lane the worse they're going to become, and pasting Vanderbilt last week didn't really do anything convince me otherwise. I'm not sure Missouri is any great shakes either but they have been a great deal more consistent of late, including kicking off the "Florida are frauds" campaign. I like the Tigers to keep rolling behind their punishing defense, getting one last tuneup next week at Arkansas before a punishing November slate. Mizz: 27--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: More overrated SEC slop. I don’t believe in either team. Ole Miss might be better, but Mizzou doesn’t win big SEC games. Roll with the Rebs, I guess. Mizz:21—Miss: 24

Seeberg: Hate that Mizzou is the latest beneficiary of the SEC rankings. Still don’t trust them since the Gators are garbage. Plus it’s fun to see Lane’s former team succeed. Go Rebs Mizz: 27—Miss: 38

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: The first of the 2-game season for Notre Dame kicks off in Provo.  I'm VERY tempted to call for the upset as the Cougs are a very solid team and LaVell Edwards Stadium will be on fire (if anyone has tickets for under $300, let me know!).  The Irish have looked fine and won by a reasonably solid margin every week, but they certainly haven't won every game comfortably.   Bear has been fantastic, but the loss of LJ Martin will really hamper the run game for the Cougars.  I have a feeling this game will be back and forth, but I think the Irish squeak out a victory.  If the Cougs were healthy, I'd flip the switch, but sadly, the Irish stay alive.  ND: 24--BYU: 20 (Seriously, I'm in Utah and and hoping to go to the game.  I will take whatever charity you'd like to send!)

Hoying: I know everyone likes to dog on Notre Dame's schedule this season (this is their first appearance on Let's Go Bucks! for one) but BYU's might be even worse, because they play in the Big 12. The same Big 12 that hasn't had a win in the CFP since TCU knocked Cheaters v2 out back in 2022 (the Big 12's only ever CFP win, and we thank you for your service). Anyway, has any team looked as good through 6 games as the Irish? I guess taking that extra month off to rest at the end of last season has really paid dividends. But this weekend we'll see if BYU's Pop-Tart Bowl experience proves to be the winning edge in this one. In a normal year this battle of QBs would be a potential Heisman resume lynchpin, but it seems that race is more or less a foregone conclusion at this point. BYU's going to need all the production they can muster as the Irish have the top defensive success rate in the nation, and pair it with an offense producing quality drives 79% of the time. This one gives me a weird feeling. LaVell is going to be rocking as the sunset paints Y Mountain. The Cougs shock the world and move into the driver's seat for a Playoff berth. ND: 23--BYU: 24

Schweinfurth: I’m not sold on BYU yet. They can move the ball, but Notre Dame just looks like a complete team. There is a very slim path for BYU to win this for me. I’ll take the Irish here. ND: 27—BYU:21

Seeberg: Still don’t know if either team is good, but I do think ND can wear the Cougars down over the course of 4 quarters. ND: 31—BYU: 20

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Indiana looks a lot like Texas has looked over the past few weeks.  They seem to be begging to be tagged after lucking into a win in Lincoln (and a bit vs the Nerds in Evanston).  The Buckeyes seem to be hitting their stride, but the loss of Ja'Kobi Jackson is huge.  While I think J.Jackson has been our best RB in my opinion this year, last week showed Bo getting back to form.  Regardless, the Hoosiers are more vulnerable through the air, and the Buckeyes are pretty good in that area.  JJ needs to feed, but don't forget about McCuin and Inniss returning to the field.  I have a feeling we'll see a Legend Bey sighting as well.  The keys for the Buckeyes will be: protect Sayin (tough with the shorthanded Oline), stop the run (feel ok in this), and force Hoover into mistakes (feel quite good here).  The Buckeyes have seemed (to us fans) mediocre on defense...but they are the #1 defense in SP+ (and #1 offense). The sacks haven't come, but they've caused problems in the backfield and will start a new streak of success for the Scarlet and Gray.  OSU: 27--IU: 17

Hoying: Kenyatta Jackson came out after the Buckeyes got rolled for 199 yards on the ground against Illinois and promised that the defense would improve. After two crushing performances against Iowa and Maryland, I think it's safe to say the Silver Bullets are back. And just in time, too, because the Hoosiers are bringing probably the best rushing attack the Buckeyes have seen and possibly will see this season. The good news is that if you can stuff the run (no "hero ball" necessary), Josh Hoover has not quite been Fernando Mendoza this season. Much like last year, I anticipate the defense putting the Buckeye offense in a position to deliver the victory. You may forget that that even with their coordinator out to lunch last year the Ohio State O moved the ball pretty efficiently in the second half until their repeated failures to get one yard when they absolutely needed it. Even with Ja'Kobi Jackson out (indefinitely?) the threat of Julian Sayin running the ball (and not in the most pitiful QB sneaks you've ever seen) should be sufficient to get just enough space to move the chains when the margins are small. Just keep #4 on the field as much as you can, no need to overthink it. I'm convinced the Buckeyes were the better team last year (nothing taken from Indiana, fully enjoy the flowers of rising to meet the moment), and I'm convinced they are this year, too, even if I don't think either team is quite as good as they were last time around. Lock in for four quarters. OSU: 24--IU: 20

Schweinfurth: I feel almost unbothered by the matchup. Maybe I see more potential in the Bucks than the Hoosiers? Indiana has escaped a few games while Ohio State has been tested and, outside of the 4th Quarter in Texas, looked the part. This is a big revenge game for the offense from the BIG Championship Game and it feels as if JJ Smith is going to go off. Not a fan of the injury report that came out Thursday, but the Bucks have enough time this week to adjust. Bucks don’t roll, but they do put this away late. OSU: 31—IU: 17

Seeberg: I hate what I’m about to do here. Unfortunately I trust IU’s O-line and defensive front 7 more than ours. Their coverage on the back end is mediocre, but Sayin actually needs time to make those throws. Sadly, I also trust Cignetti more than Day in the dreaded “Ryan Day four-quarter game” (trademark pending). Day clams up, IU clings to survival. OSU: 17—IU: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Florida over Texas
Hoying: Florida State over Miami 
Schweinfurth: MSU over Northwestern
Seeberg: Mississippi State over LSU

Week 6: Put on Your B1G Boy Pants

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 14-7 (0-5 upset)
2.) Draper 13-8 (1-4 upset)
2.) Seeberg 13-8 (1-4 upset)
4.) Hoying 11-10 (1-4 upset)

The usual suspects (those being Ohio State and...Indiana) still rule the Big Ten roost for the time being, but there have been a few unusual suspects trying to poke into the upper echelon and challenge for a B1G title berth. Now that we're thoroughly out of September, it's time to start separating the pretenders from the contenders.

Indiana Hoosiers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

Draper: Honestly, we still have absolutely no idea what Indiana is.  Nebraska is the first undefeated ranked P4 team in week 6 in some time, but I don't think anyone believes in them (present company included).  Giving up 23 points in a half to Maryland is a terrifying prospect, but, to their credit, they fought back for the W.  Even though I'm not sold on IU, Cignetti and the better athletes are wearing crimson & cream.  This is a little close for comfort as Cig preps for OSU, but the Hoosier train keeps chugging along.  IU: 31--Neb: 20

Hoying: Back in 2024, this was Indiana's "we've arrived" moment as the Hoosiers stomped into dust the same Pinstripe Bowl Champion Cornhuskers that gave the Buckeyes fits in Ohio Stadium. Nebraska would sure love to flip the script this year, but their biggest problem, like every year, is that they aren't good. Sure, 5-0 is nice but they've done it against two of the worst teams in the Big Ten and three of the worst teams anywhere else. Sure, "how you win" matters as much as "who you beat", and the Huskers haven't been challenged in any of their games so far. But the one time this season that Indiana didn't look invincible was against a Northwestern team that has since turned a few heads thanks to their pasting of Penn State. Nebraska hasn't beaten anyone good in forever and I don't see their fortunes changing anytime soon. IU: 34--Neb: 13

Schweinfurth: Indiana hasn’t looked like last year, and that’s expected. Here’s the problem, Nebraska isn’t that good. The Huskers do get Indiana in a bit of a look ahead game. Not sure that it matters. Indiana wins. IU: 35—Neb: 17

Seeberg: Look, Nebraska has handled its business so far this year, arguably better than the Hoosiers (but maybe Northwestern is actually good?). IU is getting healthier at RB which may be crucial here as a balanced attack will be needed. In Lincoln this will likely be a Ryan-Day-approved “four-quarter game” (TM pending). I’m just not sure the Huskers can get enough stops over four quarters, but it should be a good one! IU: 34—Neb: 24

California Los Angeles Bruins @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Speaking of undefeated B1G teams NO ONE is taking seriously, enter UCLA.  Based on their schedule to date, only IU has faced more cupcakes (but at least they have the Nerds on the schedule).  Bob Chesney has done a nice job overhauling the Bruins quickly, but I don't see a world that they go into Eugene and pull off a monstrous upset.  Speaking of the Ducks, has any heard what is going on with Dante Moore? I figure he should just prep for the NFL at this point, but I haven't heard anything.  Raiola looked good off the bench vs. SC, and he should be just fine here.  Quack.  UCLA: 17--Ore: 35

Hoying: Another undefeated team that's played nobody, UCLA has been turning a few heads despite Tennessee castoff Nico Iamaleava continuing to do nothing for them. On the other sideline, Oregon continues to be the one team that can stock up a healthy stable of starter-grade transfer QBs, and Dylan Raiola looked as good as or better than Dante Moore in putting away USC last week. The Bruins do tear it up on the ground though, a phase in which the Ducks haven't been the stingiest team on defense. If UCLA can make this a game of keep-away they might pull the same stunner that Oklahoma State did. I do think Oregon is vulnerable, but I like them to squeak past UCLA, setting up a nice run to the Playoff if they only have one more misstep. UCLA: 24--Ore: 27

Schweinfurth: I’ve made fun of Oregon a bit all year. They haven’t played well. Enter Dylan “Mini Mahomes” Raiola. Mini Mahomboy looked good in at USC. A backup with that amount of experience is nice luxury to have. It looks to be paying off. Raiola should be able to keep the train on the tracks until Moore comes back. UCLA: 24—Ore: 31

Seeberg: The Bruins have feasted on dregs so far this season with their conference slate opening with Purdue and Maryland (lol). The Ducks represent a sizable step up. I realize the other Coliseum team has no defense, but Raiola looked darn good. Maybe Nebraska was the problem after all? Regardless, UCLA doesn’t have the horses to hang with their former PAC foe in this one. Ducks cruise. UCLA: 20—ORE: 37

Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: I really don't know what to expect here.  The weather will be a major factor (if they play the game...).  The Dawgs are the quiet juggernaut murdering everyone in their path without regard for human life--but their schedule has low-key sucked.  Bama on the other hand, came back against a tough UK squad and my Noles (surely you jest) and demolished a super-hot Mississippi State squad in their own backyard.  Is Bama back? I don't think I'd go that far...but this game in Bryant-Denney Stadium will certainly help.  The odds-makers don't know what to do as UGA opened as a 1.5 point favorite and the line has swung to the Tide -1.5.  I love what Keelon Russell can do with his legs, but that's when the passing game is a threat...which it shouldn't be here.  Gunner Stockton is suuuuper boring, but he's there to not make mistakes.  I think it's a classic high variance high upside team (Bama) vs. low variance team (UGA).  With crazy weather expected, I'm going to lean on boring old consistency of Georgia (which is exactly what Saban's teams were.  Kirby Smart finally takes care of the "elephant" in the room and beats his nemesis that has foiled him forever.  UGA: 17--Bama: 16

Hoying: All right, Lucy, set the football up again. Surely one of these years the Dawgs can get one over on Bama before the postseason, right? Well, a couple of weeks ago I might have agreed, but the Tide have turned over a new leaf since last year's embarrassment by national champion Indiana in the Rose Bowl (still won't ever not be weird) to be arguably the hottest team in the nation right now. Georgia is, as always, their steady, steamroller selves, but (stop me if you've heard this one), they've been getting real fat on a steady diet of cupcakes. We'll see how much impact Hurricane Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias has on each team's gameplan, but I wouldn't count out Keelon Russell's ability to create with his feet if the pass game just isn't working for either team. Remember what CJ Stroud ended up having to do against Northwestern back in '22? UGA: 17--Bama: 20

Schweinfurth: We get a weather game! These are always fun to watch when your team isn’t involved. Georgia has had Bama’s number here lately. Low scoring defense game? Sounds like the Dogs' type of game. UGA: 12—Bama: 6

Seeberg: It sounds like a cop out, but this one will rely almost exclusively on the weather. Keelon Russell is absolutely balling out, but heavy rains and 40 MPH winds will render any passing game inert. The Bulldogs can run it, the Tide can’t. I reserve the right to change this pick if the game gets postponed or moved indoors, but I gotta go with Kirby and Co. in the slop. UGA: 21—Bama: 10

Maryland Terrapins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This game is pure: get in, don't get hurt, get the dub, we're on to Bloomington.  Don't let last week fool you...Maryland is B-A-D.  Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes hold McCuin and Innis out and the youngbloods get some play.  Don't get me wrong, JJ will put up stupid stats for the Heisman glory, but he will ideally be on the sideline much of the 2nd half.  I'm excited to see if we can get Henry and Boyd some real game action and see what they can do.  There will be a lot of running late to ice the game so might see a little more Jackson...or Jackson...or West....or maybe even Bey if he can get his head on straight.  I think I might be predicting too many points as the Buckeyes shouldn't have to do much, but whatever.  Happy Homecoming.  Mary: 10--OSU: 52 

Hoying: Apres Maryland, le deluge. We already knew the 2026 schedule was going to be an absolute gauntlet, but now even the anticipated late season breathers of Northwestern and Nebraska*** might not be such easy outs either. Of course, none of that applies to this week's matchup against the Maryland Terrapins in Ohio State's second turtle-themed game of the season. And this one should be even easier than the first, as the Terps can't really do anything well. Former promising star QB Malik Washington can't throw to his own receivers anymore, and MD gave up 54 and 48 points to UCLA and Nebraska, respectively, over the past two weeks. Ohio State has never scored fewer than 37 points against Maryland and I don't see that streak stopping this week, even if McCuin and Inniss don't play. Time to pad JJ's Heisman stats (watch out for Keelon Russell) and get some quality reps for Brock Boyd and Chris Henry to see what the future holds. Maybe we could even see a 5-wide package once everyone's healthy again! The real work starts next week. Mary: 10--OSU: 49

Schweinfurth: Maryland is Bad, M’kay. Full Stop. With that said, this is a stay healthy and play everyone game. Seriously, just get JJ his 100+ yards, 2 TDs and let Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd take it home. I’d like to see one running back go for at least 100 yards here too. It would be nice to see Legend Bey again, but not sure how practice is going. Either way, Bucks win big and on to Bloomington. Mary: 7—OSU: 49

Seeberg: The calm before the storm that is the remainder of the Bucks’ schedule. The Terrapins are already on life support. 4 and 10 will pull the plug. McCuin and Inniss will hang out, watch JJ get 150 yards by half again, and hopefully Boyd and Henry can have a little coming out party. Last week the defense was encouraging, particularly in the second half. Yes Iowa doesn’t run it all that well (weird to type that honestly), but the chunks that the Hawkeyes got in the first half were all but eliminated until the game was out of hand. Would like a couple 20+ yard runs as well to get some more of those on tape. Heck, put Bey and JJ in the backfield simultaneously and watch defensive coordinator poop their Pampers. Illinois already fired their DC after playing the scarlet and gray, and there’s a non-zero chance a head coach gets the axe after this one. Bucks big. MD: 13—OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: Iowa State over BYU
Hoying: UCF over Oklahoma State
Schweinfurth: TAMU over Missouri
Seeberg: South Carolina over Florida

Not even picking the Red River Shootout? Cold-blooded (and deserved)

Week 5: The Scene of the Crime

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 12-5 (0-4 upset)
2.) Draper 11-6 (1-3 upset)
2.) Seeberg 11-6 (1-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 10-7 (1-3 upset)

Call it a theft, a murder, criminal fraud (it bought Brian Ferentz 6 more years in Iowa City), or whatever you like, there's no denying that Ohio State's last visit to Kinnick Stadium wasn't a pretty sight for Buckeye Nation. The Buckeyes will look to avenge a painful memory (at least for Ryan Day) while other top teams around the nation face hostile environments of their own.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs

Draper: Of all the games this week, this is the one I'm the most interested in.  Bama vs. MSU is supposed to be a slam dunk, but Kamario Taylor has just been a joy to watch.  The Return of the CLANGA is upon us, but Bama is pretty decent themselves.  Keelon Russell is breaking out and while Bama isn't Saban's Bama, they come to play.  This is a HUGE statement game for the Bulldogs to announce their arrival and the return to glory in Starkville...but I don't think they're ready for the big time yet.  Beating Mizzou late is one thing...but the Tide are a whole different animal.  While I'd love to go with CLANGA and the excitement, I'm going to be boring and roll with the Tide.  Bama: 31--MissSt: 20

Hoying: Do you remember the identity of the first #1 team in the history of the College Football Playoff rankings? It wasn’t Alabama. It wasn’t Ohio State. It wasn’t Clemson or Georgia or Oklahoma or any other cyanemic name you’d expect. It was Mississippi State, fresh off of 3 straight top 10 wins. Now, each of those may have been overrated (the only one who finished ranked was Auburn at 22nd), but it was the Crimson Tide who gave the Bulldogs’ dream a rude awakening on their way to the first ever CFP #1 seed. It was a close-fought match, decided by a single score, but that one was in Tuscaloosa. Now the Tide, who limped to a Playoff spot they did not deserve last year (sorry, Notre Dame), have one of the highest powered offenses in college football. But not the highest powered. That honor might just go to Mississippi State of all teams, behind the air attack of local boy Kemario Taylor and the ground game led by Fluff Bothwell (seriously). Bama took way too long out of the gate before dispatching Kentucky and Florida State, and a slow start against a high powered offense like MSU’s will doom them, especially in front of an unfavorable partisan crowd. I’d never pick against Saban in this scenario but DeBoer doesn’t seem to have the same mojo. The Bulldogs roll on for now (don’t look at the rest of their October schedule). Bama: 31—MSU: 34

Schweinfurth: I’m not sold on either of these two teams, but I do believe Bama is better. Bama: 35—MissSt: 17

Seeberg:  A win here for the surprising home team would likely be the biggest in program history since the Dak era. Bama can score in bunches, but they still don’t run it particularly well, despite their dual-threat QB Keelon Russell averaging over 5 ypc. The Bulldogs run it better, but Bama’s revamped D-line is a problem (their castoffs are not exactly crushing it in the scarlet and gray). The home crowd keeps it close, but the Tide pull away late. Bama: 38–MSU: 26

Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Draper: This game is very interesting after PJ Fleck got his blood sacrifice and Ferentz extracted their pound of flesh. TTUN is down after losing a game on the last play (sucks don't it) and the Gophers couldn't be more pumped after a close win in Seattle, but I don't know if Washington is any good....also, <whispers> Iowa shouldn't have won the game last week--BUT THEY DID! I will be pulling very hard for the Gophers and I would love to see the Jug return to Minneapolis, but I'm not feeling it.  TTUN gets back to cheati... winning and the bloodborne illnesses Fleck got will be for naught.  UM: 23--Minn: 13

Hoying: Maybe we’ve been a little too harsh on Michigan. Maybe they’re not as bad as their record (should) indicate. Losing to Iowa hurts, but it wasn’t like they got run out of their own building. No, that’s what happened to Minnesota against Mississippi State in week 2. The Gophers put up all of one touchdown against the Bulldogs, on a fumble in the end zone. It’s not like Iowa has much of an offense, either, last week’s close win notwithstanding, but the Hawkeyes’ defense was able to keep pace with Michigan in a way that Minnesota just will not. I’d love to be wrong again and see the Gophers ride the momentum of last week’s big win in Seattle but it’s time for more mean regression for both teams. Mich: 24—Minn: 17

Schweinfurth: Michigan is due for a bounce back. However, they have some serious problems. Pay more money for Underwood and maybe get worse results? UM: 17—Minn: 10

Seeberg:  Yet another contest where I have 0 idea if either team is good. Michigan’s supposed high-level defense gave up a 91-yard two-minute touchdown drive to IOWA last week so that defense has been, by law, confirmed as mid for the remainder of the season. Minnesota got a west coast win against the Huskies who I’m beginning to think are the Missouri Tigers of the Big Ten: always hyped and near/in the rankings, no results to show for it. Last time these two played was in the Big House, and the end-game officiating of an onside kick was so bad the conference had to change its rules afterwards. The Gophers likely want revenge, but sadly I think the maize and blue will eke out enough points to win another hard-to-watch contest. UM: 20—Minn: 16

Florida Gators @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: If this were an NFL game, bet the house on the Tigers.  Florida couldn't be higher after a beatdown over the Rebels and Mizzou is just (somehow) still ranked after losing to CLANGA (SEC).  It SCREAMS upset as the Gators get to comfortable and travel to sleepy Columbia.  However, I don't think Missouri is any good.  While Florida is probably a touch overrated at the moment, their QB has flashed and there appears to be life in Gainesville (Lord, I've seen what you've given them and I ask for the same for my Noles).  Gators win this one in a tight game early but a comfortable win down the stretch. UF: 31--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: Speaking of high-powered SEC offenses, how about the new-look Florida Gators? It’s a shame they don’t play either of the teams discussed above (though they do visit Texas, who has to play everyone this year); what a track meet those would turn out to be. As it stands, this week’s questionably ranked opponent is Missouri, who never beats anyone of note and may never again (unless Ohio State’s starting quarterback opts out of another bowl game). And the latest reports are that both starting DEs for the Tigers are out on Saturday. Oh boy. The Gators keep rolling, and with only tough games against Texas and Georgia left we may be looking at one of the first teams to lock up a playoff bid. UF: 38—Mizzou: 24

Schweinfurth: Again, Florida just feels like the better team here. Mizzou was good a few years ago, but they’ve probably capped out. UF: 34—Mizzou: 21

Seeberg:  If you don’t follow the college football twitter-sphere, you may be unaware that Mizzou is 0-16 against SEC opponents that finish above .500. One’s an accident, two’s a pattern, three’s a trend, sixteen is bordering on unequivocal. Please get this middling team out of the rankings. Thanks Gators. UF: 34—Mizzou: 24

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: The scary pink locker room at Kinnick has caused some terrifying games in the past for Buckeye faithful.  The good news? None of these players were a part of that...nor were the coaches.  Urban smashed in big games but was always good for an inexplicable bedcrapping once a year and it was in Iowa City in 2017 (the last time OSU played there).  I've had the good fortune to witness a game in Iowa City when Gameday was there in 2006 when OSU took care of business (38-17---NBD).  Honestly, I think this is more like the 2006 game.  Iowa simply doesn't have the horses to compete here. How did they go into the Big House and win? Clutch QB play, great TE play (welcome to Iowa), punts galore, supremely overrated scUM team, and a LOT of luck.  The advanced stats said Iowa had no business being close in that game (...and yet...).  Yes, Iowa generally gets that magical win at least once a year, but Jeremiah Smith provides all the magic we need.  I'm curious as to how the defense rebound from last week (even though most of the Illini points were simply good offense).  In addition, we need to start asking the question about Jakobi vs. Bo AND the other receivers need to start stepping up.  I'd love to see some more Brock Boyd peppered in as the season progresses.  Regardless, I think the Bucks win comfortably, but there are a few moments of panic early.  Low scoring but just keep winning.  OSU: 28--Iowa: 10
Hoying: The 2017 Iowa game may be the strangest Ohio State loss of the last 15 years. Yeah, 2018 Purdue and 2024 Michigan were equally bad, but at least they had key favorable matchups to exploit. Iowa had…tight ends…and the uncanny ability to read JT all day. 55 points was the most a Brian Ferentz Hawkeye offense scored against a team that finished with more than 4 wins, and they did it against perhaps Urban’s most underrated team. Thankfully, these lapses by the scarlet and gray are becoming rarer and rarer (no, losing on the road to the #4 team by one point doesn’t count). The Buckeye offense was firing on all cylinders against Illinois, including the best O-line play all season and some encouraging runs by the boy behind center. The run defense didn’t look great, but the Hawkeyes are shockingly bad at running the ball, even compared against Ohio State’s relatively quiet ground game. The Hawkeye blueprint for victory was the same against Iowa State and Michigan: hang around until the fourth quarter and them snakebite them when they make a late mistake. The Buckeyes should not leave this one to chance; apply pressure all 4 quarters and finish the job with the lead this time. Late defensive meltdowns continue to be a concern but I don’t think that Iowa has the horses to make Ohio State pay in the same way that Texas did. On to the rest of the October gauntlet (although maybe we should just call it the rest-of-the-season gauntlet; did you see what Northwestern did to Penn State???). OSU: 31—Iowa: 13

Schweinfurth: Iowa is a pain in the neck. They have no receivers, play a million tight ends, and only run it. AND IT WORKS! I don’t expect a repeat of last week. The defense was challenged by the players themselves to have better run fits. I’m sure it was a point of emphasis this week. Bucks should win and the Iowa run game won’t get over 200 yards. OSU: 38—Iowa 16

Seeberg:  To his credit, Ryan Day doesn’t lose to teams he should beat. To his discredit, he’s 6-8 in one-score games (read: “four-quarter games” *shudders*. The spread on this one has actually gone up to 14.5 after starting at 13.5. Anything over 8 points works for the Buckeyes in their icy white unis (with the shoulder stripes!!). Kenyatta says the defense is “fixed” after too many people missed assignments last week playing “hero ball”. If one film session really fixed that, Matt Patricia might be a wizard. Giving up 450 yards to Illinois is concerning to say the least. Regardless, not one, but TWO of Michigan’s WRs had 100 yard days against the Hawkeyes, and JJ is worth about 3.8 UM wideouts. Please lord, don’t let it come down to special teams. 15 targets for Jeremiah, just enough run game to keep them honest, and get the *bleep* out of Dodge. OSU: 31—Iowa: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Rutgers over Indiana
Hoying: Clemson over Miami
Schweinfurth: Auburn over Tennessee
Seeberg: UCF over Houston