Week 2: Texas Three-Step

Standings:

1.) Draper 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Hoying 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 3-1 (0-1 upset)
1.) Seeberg 3-1 (0-1 upset)

The schedule heats up for the Scarlet and Gray as they face their first of up to seven ranked opponents, in the 100 degree Texas summer. And the college football fandom had better savor this game because they're not going to see another one on this level for at least a couple of weeks.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Well, at least the whole world sees this losers for the scUM they are.  There may have been another second left, and I will give them credit for executing a flawless Hail Mary, but you can't be the "winningest team in CFB"* and rush the field after getting a win over a MAC school in highly questionable fashion.  Bryce Underwood has shown (again) his mettle and panache as a QB which is non-existent.  At least they play a team with a far worse defense this week <checks schedule>....uh oh.  Venables may not be a smart man, or a very good head coach, but the man knows how to confuse the heck out of opposing offenses.  I'm somewhat worried that the gift of 1 additional second will springboard the sun and blue to a rebound, but there is no reason to expect it.  Outside of the Barstool offices, the Michigan faithful are panicking in the street.  Boomer!  OU: 31--UM: 13
Hoying: Back in aught seven, That Team Up North cooked up a clunker very similar to the one they just displayed against Western Michigan, only with a blocked field goal to deliver the death knell instead of a hail mulligan escape. Do you remember what happened next? They hosted the (unranked) Oregon Ducks and got absolutely blasted. Now once again OU is coming to town (different OU this time), but the maize and blue don't even have Chad Henne and Mike Hart to pretend to rely on. We're back to the classic Harbaugh formula of a hyped-up QB coming in and somehow getting worse every year. The innovation is that the Whittverines suddenly can't run the ball either. Justice Haynes is sorely missed as Michigan put up all of 106 yards on the ground, 47 coming from Underwood himself. That's not going to do it against this OU front; recall that they gave up all of 28 yards on the ground in last year's close Playoff loss to Alabama. I don't think the Sooners are any great shakes but they're certainly better than whatever was spewed all over the Ann Arbor turf last week. Hang onto those sweet, sweet memories of 2023, Wolverines. You'll have nothing else to keep you warm at any point in the foreseeable future. OU: 24--UM: 14

Schweinfurth: Michigan struggled against a good MAC team. And they lost…yes, I do not recognize an illegitimate play. This is a mighty step up for the Wolverines. They are going to struggle unless Underwood can throw something other than a fastball at his receivers and the O-line learns how to run block. This one could get ugly folks. OU:35—UM: 6

Seeberg: Let’s be real here. Nobody on this blog was taking the cheaters up north in this game before last week’s debacle. I don’t believe they truly influenced the outcome (Big Ten refs are literally just that bad), but the confluence of garbage calls up there, along with things like OSU mysteriously losing comms for a quarter last year, and even a fully sane person has to wonder. Hope OU prepared some hand signals *shudders*. But it won’t matter. All the stallions in the world can’t save this iteration of the maize and blue. Boomer. OU: 27—UM: 10

Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Who doesn't love a good rivalry? El (Cl)assico returns, but the Cyclones are all residing in Happy Valley after Matt Campbell left the cupboard bare.  I don't know much about these teams, but Iowa at home vs a monstrously decimated Iowa State roster spells trouble.  Kirk Ferentz keeps the children happy and the Hawks maintain the trophy.  ISU: 10--Iowa: 24
Hoying: Giving a game like this a 7:30 kickoff feels like a crime against nature, if only because it'll be impossible to stay awake until the end of it. Would you believe that Iowa State has taken 3 out of the last 4 in the series, and the lone Iowa win from 2023 was vacated as penal substitution for Michigan's crimes because the Hawkeyes were too hot to trot to land Cade McNamara of all people? Iowa State has a brand new head coach, while Iowa decidedly does not. Unfortunately, as former ISU coach Matt Campbell was promoted to Penn State rather than fired, you know what that means in the transfer portal era: the best talent left with him. There hasn't been a decent whooping in this rivalry in a decade but I have a bad feeling about storm to be unleashed upon visitors in this one. ISU: 13--Iowa: 27

Schweinfurth: Gotta love El Assico. This game is usually good for a chuckle. Matt Campbell had Iowa’s number. Seeing that he is gone, Iowa actually has a chance. I don’t think this game will set the game back 20 years again, but it won’t be the most aesthetically pleasing game either. ISU: 13—Iowa: 21

Seeberg: Hey it’s Iowa against Penn State Iowa State. The Cyclones were near national relevance under Matt Campbell but they will return to mediocrity in a hurry without him. As a result this fun intrastate, non-conference rivalry- a rarity these days (looking at you, Oreganders)- has lost some luster. Iowa is boring but solid, Iowa State is boring and meh. Advantage black and yellow. ISU: 10—IOWA: 26

Arizona Wildcats @ Brigham Young Cougars

Draper: This could be an intriguing and important match in the Big12, but I don't expect tons of eyes.  Provo is a tough place to play, and I believe BYU will contend for a playoff spot behind Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin.  Zona has flashed at times, but not seeing it in the spotlight.  Maybe in the near future, but Kelani rides the PopTart Bowl wave to another victory.  Zona: 20--BYU: 31
Hoying: The Big 12 is still technically a power conference so it still technically gets an automatic spot in the Playoff. Not that I'm worried about that arrangement changing, just wait until the 24-team Playoff gets rammed through and every conference gets a participation trophy entrant. Now that Bettin' Brendan Sorsby has finally been sidelined from Texas Tech, suddenly the Big 12 champion doesn't seem like such a foregone conclusion, and one (or both) of these teams could make some noise down the stretch if they can keep pace early. Arizona is welcoming back last year's leading rusher Ismail Mahdi and staring LB Max Harris after brief dalliances with the NFL Draft. It's a brave new world in college football this season, but let's not act like BYU hasn't routinely had 30- (40-?) year old players in the past either. Bear Bachmeier's still a young cub, starting out his sophomore year after setting the Big 12 on fire last year and coming up two losses to Texas Tech short of avenging 2024 BYU's Playoff snub. This one went to OT last year and is still giving me toss-up vibes, so I'll just go with the home team. Zona: 24--BYU: 27

Schweinfurth: This feels like a BYU run away. I’m not sure Zona can score with the Cougs. Zona: 21—BYU: 35

Seeberg: With Texas Tech’s well-publicized QB carousel ending poorly, this entire conference has 0 semi-legitimate title hopefuls (you’re next, ACC). Winning this “power” conference and getting in the playoff is like Steve Buscemi picking out his seat for the end of the world on the asteroid in Armageddon. Regardless, these two play and with Tet McMillan off to the NFL, the Wildcats should come back to Earth a bit. Cougars pull away late. Zona: 20—BYU: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Here we go again.  These guys just don't learn.  The Buckeyes storm into Austin on a winning streak vs the burnt orange but revenge will be on the minds of the Horns.  This may be one of the best Texas rosters with Colin Simmons holding down the defense and Cam Coleman shoring up the receiving corps (and that Arch guy).  One comment is that matching the offenses against each other (which is kinda dumb, but here we are) actually favor the Buckeyes at the skill positions (Sayin > Arch, Jackson > Smothers, Smith > Coleman), but the edge on the lines (assuming a repeat performance) likely favors the Horns.  Defenses are still somewhat of a question as they weren't pressed last week.  Interesting fact, both coordinators on both sides were head coaches (OSU's in the NFL and UTs in college).  I trust Patricia to get the guys going, but this is a tall order on the road.  Darrell K. Royal will be rockin' at night, but the Buckeyes aren't strangers to the big stage.  You know what's up.  Horns Down! Bucks (more or less) punch the playoff ticket in September.  OSU: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: As a fan of the game, these are the matchups you love to see, but as a Buckeye partisan this game makes me nervous. Sure, the Bucks are 2-0 against Bevo over the last two seasons but neither game was exactly a comfortable win. And Jeremiah Smith scored a total of zero points in those matchups, including being a total non-factor in the Cotton Bowl semifinal. Last week the all-Jeremiah-all-the-time offense looked great during the first half but the inability to get the run game going was frustrating. It's inexcusable for the O-line to continue to look this lost on handling their assignments after having the whole offseason to work on what's obvious to the entire world as Ohio State's greatest Achilles heel of late. At least we saw in the second half that we have multiple running backs who can make special plays if they can get the ball in space. The flaws I saw against Ball State are almost enough to make me pick the Longhorns for a second straight year (whoopsie) but I just have zero faith in Sark to actually pull one of these wins off. Since joining the SEC, Texas is 0-5 against Ohio State and Georgia and 24-1 against everyone else. The Buckeyes don't have James Franklin to kick around anymore but we've found almost as good a target during this three-year run. The schedule from hell kicks off with another big win as Jeremiah finally finds some room against another tough Texas D, and shake-n-bake Sayin makes another huge play on the ground. Time to start looking ahead to Illinois. OSU: 28--UT: 17

Schweinfurth: The Bucks need to get Jeremiah Smith the ball in this game. Texas has done everything they can to shut him down with great success. Look for Arthur Smith to move Jeremiah around and different ways to get him the ball. The running game needs to continue what they found in the second half last week. I don’t see a low scoring game this time. This one should be fun. OSU: 24—UT:21

Seeberg: To put in perspective how insane the SEC bias still is at ESECPN, Paul Finebaum said with a straight face that Sark was a better coach than Day. Day is 2-0 against him and leads 1-0 in natties. That’s a special kind of dumb right there. In any event, lots to pick at after a ho-hum 53-point win last week. Run game needed 3 quarters to get going; however, Day rotated combos a couple times early before leaving the starting five in the whole third quarter. D needs to get home on QBs, but most aren’t 250-lb bowling balls either. McCuin was a pleasant surprise and appeared for all the world a very legit second option. Expect 75+ yards from him if things go as planned. Right tackle, however, may be suspect. Play action should slow down the rush enough for Sayin to work his accuracy magic. A just-good-enough run game will do it. Jackson and Jackson can manage that (and your court case too!). Horns down. OSU: 27—UT: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Kentucky over Alabama
Hoying: Georgia Tech over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Utah
Seeberg: Washington State over Kansas State 

Week 1: Getting the Ball Rolling

After a long and lonely offseason following two puzzling faceplants, the Buckeyes are raring to go as they kick off the season ranked #1 for the first time in 11 years. This season's schedule graciously features an aperitif before the steak dinner, but there are enough intriguing matches peppered across the landscape to hold your attention after you've  begun to turn your eyes upon Texas.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Clemson Tigers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Welcome to the real beginning of CFB for 2026 with a knockdown drag-em-out, fight between....the walking corpse of Clemson and the Villains of 2026. The battle of Tigahs is reasonably intriguing with little to no competition on the family of networks, but...I just don't care.  Texas Tech looked to be the team everyone was going to hate this year but "Ole King Troll" (trademark pending) Lane Kiffin burst into the chat.  Sam Leavitt is a nice QB but I don't see greatness.  On the other side, I couldn't name the QB.  When in doubt, I tend to lean on a tough home environment (and the team with former NFL players on it).  LSU probably ends with 3-4 losses...but this isn't one.  The Kiffin Era keep printing money for ESPN.  Clem: 17--LSU: 30
Hoying: Once upon a time, the LSU Tigers went into Death Valley East and walked out as the team to which ESPN was desperately trying to pin their title hopes after their #1 darling got pantsed in the Shoe. Then LSU went 7-6 and kicked Brian Kelly out of the fam-uh-lee. Now, as LSU desperately scrapes the bottom of the NFL wannabe barrel to fill out their opening day roster, everyone is foaming at the mouth to pin their hopes on the Bayou Bengals again thanks to volatile coach Lane Kiffin, who you last saw abandoning a Playoff semifinalist in the middle of their title run. I expect some growing pains in Baton Rouge, but do you know who else was really bad last year? That's right, the other Death Valley Tigers, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the sport is leaving poor old Dabo behind as contrasted with the constantly self-reinventing Kiffin. As I said last year, I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ones) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. And I didn't see it all last year for the preseason #4 frauds. Nothing changes until something changes. Clem: 17--LSU: 28

Schweinfurth: LSU has a lot of distractions coming into this week. With all of the court dates and noise around cut NFL players at LSU, there is no way Lane has been totally focused on this game. The dude's ego is driving the bus and it may be headed off a cliff. Clemson wasn’t great last year, but you still can’t overlook them. I think LSU squeaks by, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost either. Clem: 16—LSU: 17

Seeberg: Weird one to end the Saturday slate, mainly because literally everyone without a vested interest will be rooting for Dabo. Even with the potential inclusion of guys who apparently can’t make an NFL practice squad, getting traction with so much change may be difficult for Lane. How he continues to get high-profile jobs defies all logic. As for the game itself? It might as well defy all logic too. Keeping your roster from turnover should be beneficial early in the season, and Dabo’s chip on his shoulder is probably visible from space by now. Let’s get the fire Lane train rolling early Clem: 20—LSU: 17

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Louisville Cardinals vs. Mississippi Rebels 

Draper: How about those Rebels post-Kiffin? They certainly put on a show in the playoffs, but can they continue with a new roster? Wait...what? They have Trinidad Chambliss for a David Lighty year? No real reason to expect Chambliss can't carry them against Louisville when he carried them to the semis last year.  These matchups of teams in the teens always produce surprises, but I just can't quick my priors.  Ole Miss will be getting a lion's share of the betting market, but week 1 is where upstart dreams go to die.  The Grove should be enough, but we shall see.  UL: 13--Miss: 27
Hoying: How long can Ole Miss keep its mojo? The last time a scummy coach (Hugh Freeze) left town, the Rebs spent the next few years having about as much success as their namesakes until the next scummy coach came along. Most of the pieces of last year's puzzle are still in place. The only star player Ole Miss put into the NFL was WR De'Zhaun Stribling, and the Ohio State transfer pipeline seems to be closed off for the moment. And it was current coach Pete Golding, not Lane Kiffin, who had the Rebs one Hail Mary completion away from having a shot at Indiana for the championship (still will never be not weird). The other sideline in this one is less interesting. Louisville is just always kind of there (unless they're upsetting the mighty Miami Hurricanes, see, it can be done), and short of being the latest landing spot for a less-than-elite backup Ohio State quarterback (Lincoln Kienholz this time), there's not much intrigue. The mighty SEC gets to flex its muscles against a ranked opponent, and ESPN gets to breathe a sigh of relief that Week 3 Armageddon won't get spoiled early. UL: 17--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: Early season game and I don’t have much to say here. Is losing Lane Kiffin addition by subtraction? Maybe. Ole Miss should win this. UL: 24—Miss: 35

Seeberg: Lincoln Kienholz makes his actual, meaningful debut here (bowl games need not apply). He’s hyper athletic but the supporting cast still leaves something to be desired. I do think Brohm can coach him up reasonably well, but it’s just too early for that to take full effect. The Lane-less Rebs get a W. UL: 20—MISS: 31

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles

Draper: Why are we picking this? This is just rude.  I know my colleagues are simply trying to get me to just pick my alma mater who has just fallen on rough times so they can let me start the year in a hole....SO THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I'LL DO!!! You thought FSU was in trouble against NMSU? AU CONTRAIRE! This was a masterful rope-a-dope by Norvell as the Noles are ready to reemerge onto the national stage by putting a beatdown on the Mustangs.  You say the defensive line had 0 pressures against the Aggies? That just shows the New Mexico State is ready for the big time.  There's gotta be 4 first rounders on that Aggie Oline.  SMU won't know what hit them as the Seminole Uprising returns to Doak (Note: I may or may not believe this....I'll leave it to the reader to decide).  SMU: 30--FSU: 34
Hoying: Florida State getting passed up for a spot in the 2023 CFP at 13-0 may be one of the cruelest robberies in the history of college football. Not just because it let The Abomination win the championship that year (no, Florida State wouldn't have beaten them either, but let me dream), but because that might have been the last chance at greatness this program may ever enjoy. Much like the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Noles enjoyed decades of success under a legendary head coach, some lesser greatness under a successor they chased away, and now look bewilderedly mediocre year after year. At least Nebraska still fills Memorial Stadium, I guess. I just can't understand how a team in such fertile recruiting territory with such a rich history of success and swagger can be so bad. Even Miami managed to resurrect themselves (still waiting on Florida, though, but take your time, boys). More to the point, S M U, a program that was literally killed off in the 80s, has managed to claw their way back into perennial playoff contention in (technically) a power conference. If I hadn't just watched Florida State squeak by New Mexico State last week, I might have picked the Noles under a "they can't be this bad forever" theory, but...actually, let's just go with that. The worm has to turn sometime, right? Right? SMU: 27--FSU: 30

Schweinfurth: This has to be a make or break year for Mike Norvell. He’s shown a few flashes, but hasn’t seemed able to get into the dance. They’ll have to put up quite a few points in this one to keep things on the tracks to start the year. SMU has been able to score in bunches the last few years. Should be a fun one to watch. SMU: 34—FSU: 38

Seeberg: Well, we have a bit of data at hand for this marquee(?) matchup…and it looks bad for the Seminoles. Struggling to put away a New Mexico State team that was 4-8 last year is worrying. I don’t have a ton of faith in SMU (see what I did there Methodists?), but I’ll be hard-pressed to pick FSU in any game of consequence. Bobby Bowden, Peter Warrick and Co. aren’t walking through that door anytime soon unfortunately. SMU: 34—FSU: 20

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Ball State Cardinals @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye football, we've missed you terribly.  After a rather inauspicious end to the 2025 campaign, the Scarlet and Gray enter 2026 with the largest spread of week 1 (and that includes teams playing UMass....uh...sorry Buttgers).  There's not much to say here.  As we enter the Shoe for Senior Day (dumb), the focus will simply be on staying healthy and prepping for Texas.  Ball State will happily take their paycheck and their bowling ball QB and be on their way.  Sayin and Smith light it up early but the backups get extensive time starting in the first half.  The defense will make a mistake or two, but it won't matter.  Bucks roll.  I REALLY wanted to pick the shutout, but I have a feeling a sad FG will ruin the day.  I'm not sure the Buckeyes even cover to keep everything in the bag! Ball: 3--OSU: 52
Hoying: Another year, another dozen-or-so players lost to the NFL draft, and another preseason top 3 ranking notwithstanding. Get ready to get used to some new faces on both sides of the ball, especially this week as the Buckeyes hopefully go 3 or 4 strings deep. We likely won't get the answers we're looking for against BS U, but we can start to look for clues. How will the ball be distributed among the WR corps without a clear #2 option? How will the O-line make room for the running game, and does that include our newly minted captain QB? How many pieces in the secondary does it take to replace Caleb Downs, and what does that mean for getting pressure on the QB? I suggest you don't worry about this sort of thing and, just enjoy yourself. That goes for you all, too. BSU: 3--OSU: 56

Schweinfurth: I’m a simple man. I just want to see what Arthur Smith’s offense looks like (tempo please?) and how Matt Patricia has reloaded the defense. That and let’s get Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman campaign kicked off in style. No injuries, get the backups some time, and tune up for a massive one next week. BSU: 0—OSU: 59

Seeberg:  Well kids, we made it. Another season of Buckeye football is upon us! We have to wait til week 2 for a banger this year, however. I am very curious how both lines will look. Lots of experience up front for Sayin, Bo and Co. If they can keep Julian upright against real competition, it’s natty or bust. The front 6 on D (might as well call it that these days) is more concerning. Lots of production gone. I trust Kenyatta and Eddrick, but too much unknown otherwise. I also no longer trust Ryan Day to go any faster than your average turtle on offense. Gonna need big plays from #4 through the air and chunk plays on the ground to score enough to justify the half-a-hundred spread. Regardless of the opponent, football is back. Enjoy Buckeye Nation, it gets real, real quick! BSU: 10—OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: Wisconsin over Notre Dame
Hoying: Washington State over Washington
Schweinfurth: Boise State over Oregon (hahaha)
Seeberg: Ohio over Nebraska

How To Lose Games and Influence Nothing

 

Allow me to take you all back more than a quarter of a century.  Thirty years, to be precise.  The year was 1995.  Toy Story hit theaters that November and ushered in a new era of animation.  Gas was $1.20 a gallon.  Waterfalls and Gangsta’s Paradise dominated the radio (the actual radio, not streaming kids!).  That year, Ohio State football was an absolute juggernaut.  That team had the best offensive lineman in the country (Orlando Pace, winning the first of his consecutive Lombardi Trophies), the best wide receiver in the country (Terry Glenn, Biletnikoff winner), a 3^rd round draft pick at quarterback, and the LITERAL best player in the country in Eddie George, who won the Heisman.  That team hung 45 on 15th ranked Notre Dame and 56 on #25 Iowa en route to an 11-0 start.  Then suddenly, a team with a laughable surplus of offensive firepower forgot how to offense, scoring just 37 points in its final two contests, losses to that team up north and Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

 

Thirty years later, the script had flipped from offense to defense.  The 2025 iteration of our beloved Buckeyes had FOUR first round draft picks on defense, including the Thorpe Award winner for best secondary player in the country.  This unit allowed 7.8 points per game in the regular season.  Nobody scored over 16 points all season.  Imagine only needing to score 17 points to guarantee victory!  Quite a privilege.  The last five teams to allow less than 11 points per game in the regular season (including, incidentally, the 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes) all won the natty.  To quote former Vikings (and Cardinals during this famous rant) head coach Dennis Green, “Crown their ass!”

 

Then came the Big Ten championship game.  Lots more great defense.  Only 14 points were required to win this game, against the #2 team in the country!  Except 14 points didn’t come, only 10 did.  13-10 *shudders*.  A bizarre, though somewhat dismissible, loss.  Buckeye faithful had been bemused about mediocre red zone play calling and execution all season, a seemingly endless competition to see how many tight ends could legally be on the field simultaneously.  It hadn’t mattered.  Every game had been won.  Until now.  Now, things must change.

 

Except things didn’t change.  Not in the slightest.  Like a degenerate gambler putting good money after bad,  Ryan Day- and whatever other offensive staff he allows any input- doubled down on a head-scratching strategy to intentionally shorten games and keep opponents as close as they are capable of being which, in the case of the final two games, was so close they actually won.

 

Before I continue, it bears mentioning that, to compliment the incredible defense, Ohio State’s offensive cupboard was FAR from bare.  Max Klare, a day 2 draft pick tight end weapon, Bo Jackson, an incredible freshman running back, TWO FIRST ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS AND A QUARTERBACK WHO SET THE ALL-TIME COMPLETION PERCENTAGE RECORD were on this offense.  This is not hyperbole.  Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in college football.  Julian Sayin is the most accurate quarterback in the history of the game (they’ve only been playing it for 150 years or so though, so take that with a grain of salt).  Carnell Tate is a first-round pick, yet WR2 on this roster.  Pure absurdity.

 

Yet somehow, this is the offense that mustered a whole 10 points against Indiana (again, only 14 were needed to win).  This is the offensive unit that was shut out at halftime against Miami.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you score 0 points.  Remember that insane 1995 Ohio State offense?  It scored 23 and 14 points in its last two outings.  Still 13 points more than this team managed.

 

The defense?  Phenomenal.  The word “generational” gets thrown around way too often, but when you’re a quarter of the way through a century and NO defense has allowed fewer PPG through the regular season, that qualifies.  Even counting the Big Ten championship game- against the future national champions- that number was only up to 8.2 PPG which tied 2011 Alabama (national champs, of course).  Indiana averaged 40.3 ppg in the playoffs.  They hung 56 on Oregon.  The Silver Bullets held them to a measly 13, and the offense simply did not do its job.

 

In the bigger picture, I can forgive some of the Indiana outing.  Hartline was leaving, recruiting was in flux and as nice as a Big Ten championship is, there was truly not a whole lot at stake.  The post-game interviews sounded as if it was simply a regular season game and that the playoff would wake this offense up.  The ignition would be hit, the car would shift into 5^th gear, and away the Buckeyes would go.  Instead, Ryan Day chose to stay in 3^rd, cruised town at 35 MPH, and flat out refused to even begin to approach anything like what this offense could have done.

 

Moreover, at the start of the season, when our quarterback was a complete unknown and two new coordinators were being installed, 11-2 sounded about right.  Another CFP appearance was acceptable in August.  But as information compiles, goals are adjusted.  Turns out, that new quarterback was allergic to inaccuracy.  Hey guess what?  That guy that coordinated all those Super Bowl winning defenses in New England knew what he was doing!  Expectations rose accordingly, and justifiably.  Ultimately, those expectations weren’t met.

 

Fair or not, this falls on Ryan Day.  The supposed offensive mastermind managed just 24 points in the final two games of the season with the aforementioned bevy of talent.  There are a litany of truly great Buckeye teams in years past (’69, ’95, ’96, ’98, ’03, ’15, ’19 off the top of my head) that did not win a title for myriad reasons.  2025 has to be added to this list.  A legitimately generational defense was squandered by a coach who absolutely could not get out of his players’ way.  Day’s outright refusal to let his elite offensive players exert their influence on the game to their maximum extent (read:  more plays)- especially when it mattered most in the postseason- will leave Buckeye Nation befuddled for years to come

Week 18: The Upside Down

Standings:

1.) Hoying 52-20 (2-12 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 52-20 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 48-24 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-27 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the Upside Down, where everything is strange and alien, and the Eleven Warriors sadly weren't quite as successful as Eleven and her warriors (spoiler alert). Nothing better summarizes this year's bizarro world College Football Playoff than the fact that the Oregon Ducks chasing their first ever national championship after coming oh so close so many times during the last 15 years...is the LEAST compelling narrative of the CFP semifinalists.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8

Cotton Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Mississippi Rebels

Draper: Going into the playoffs, there was always a chance for these teams to make a run.  I was more confident in Miami as they had all the pieces necessary, but bad Carson Beck kept them from perfection.  Ole Miss was an absolute wildcard from the get go.  In fact, they're similar to the 2024 OSU squad who entered the playoffs with low/no expectations (for different reasons), but then just decided to win the whole effin thing.  Neither of these teams really expected to be here, but a massive choke by UGA left the door open and a pick six doomed the Bucks.  Can the Cane lines bully the Rebels like they did to the Buckeyes? I think they can, but Chambliss is much more mobile than Sayin.  It will come down to Carson Beck's ability to not make the big mistake and Bain getting to the QB.  I think they'll do just enough to edge out the Rebels who have to be running on fumes at this point.  I hate them...but Michael Irvin's dealer will be making some bank.  UM: 24--Miss: 21

Hoying: It's a good thing these teams are playing each other because each of them is threatening to run out of steam at any moment. We (unfortunately) got to see Good Carson Beck (if you can call less than 6 yards per attempt "good") last week in Jerryworld, but it's always only a matter of time before Bad Carson Beck rears his ugly head. And it starts with pressure. The Buckeyes tallied all of two sacks after putting up four each against Tennessee and Texas in last year's Playoff (and EIGHT against Oregon) against the most Jekyll-and-Hyde pressure sensitive QB since Andy Dalton. Unfortunately for the SEC, their last remaining hope isn't exactly known for their defense, averaging about half a sack per game fewer than your favorite team. It's not like the Hurricane offense put a bunch of points up on the Bucks even with the lack of pressure, but the question will be whether Trinidad Chambliss can succeed where Julian Sayin failed, and whether the Rebel front can give him the time to do so. The other elephant in the room is whether Ole Miss will be able to keep their coaching staff intact to sustain a Playoff run, as another pair of offensive coaches have been abducted by the Lane Train. We saw in the Big Ten Championship what can happen when a team has to face distraction after distraction while preparing for a top opponent. These two teams were my outside-the-box choices to potentially turn it on at the right time and pull off a shocker of a Playoff run, and one of them will be taking it all the way to Miami in a couple weeks. With all the turmoil surrounding the Ole Miss program, and the talented Hurricanes peaking at just the right time, I think they'll keep the SEC out of the championship for the third straight year and get their chance to stop a third Big Ten team from taking the title in as many years. UM: 27--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: The 'Ole Miss joy ride has to end at some point right? They have been impressive to this point, but with all of the distractions, it has to be almost over. Miami, to their credit, can bring the heat on both lines. It truly feels like Miami is the better and more cohesive team. Keeping Carson Beck from making the big mistake will be important. Miami should win. UM: 28--Miss: 17
Seeberg: Just think- we were a “we can use tempo!” coaching decision away from from THREE Big Ten teams in the final four. *Heaviest of sighs*. Anyway, here’s your game to see who gets to be the runner up this year. Ole Miss found something even after the Lane Train’s departure, but they’re still suspect at best defensively. Trinidad is super mobile, but a team that only needs 4 to get pressure like Miami can afford a QB spy on defense. Miami will likely grind down the Rebels and that tired defense will get gashed late. The U reaches a title game only to get their hopes dashed by a Big Ten school. UM: 27—Miss: 16

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

Peach Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Ugh....I hate rematches so much.  Let's see...IU went to Eugene and beat this EXACT team on the road this year....but THIS is the one that counts.  While I've faded both of these teams (to my detriment) this year, a new B1G team will be playing for a national championship for the 3rd straight year.  Indiana has been a model of consistency with the upperclassman transfers (do they recruit high school players any more?).  Oregon has continued to thrive with question marks abounding.  The injury to the Duck RB is a real concern in this game, as the Hoosier defense is just awesome.  Can the Ducks slow down Mendoza? I'd suggest asking him his favorite LOTR character...that might cause a delay of game.  It's Cig's world and we're just living in it.  Hoosier mania rolls to the title and we get another interview with the most loveable dork of all time (who is a freaking Heisman winner!).  I can't believe I'm typing this....Indiana to the title.  Ore: 20--IU: 30

Hoying: I hope you enjoyed rematch season, because this is the last one we'll see this year. When these two last played, Indiana pulled out a double digit win in the unfriendly confines of Autzen Stadium, in a game that was only really close because of a late pick six by Oregon. Championship teams can navigate these setbacks. The Hoosiers haven't slowed down since, escaping late against Penn State and needing some boneheaded red zone play by Ohio State but otherwise dominating everyone else they've faced, capped off by the most comprehensive humbling of Alabama since the 20th century. Oregon has been no slouch either, with a bit of a questionable schedule but proving their bona fides with a convincing shutout of the red hot Red Raiders. Rematches have generally flipped the script this season, most visibly with Ole Miss avenging October's fourth quarter collapse against Georgia in last week's Sugar Bowl (offer void for Tulane though), but I just don't see any reason why Oregon takes this one without a monumental collapse by the overwhelming title favorite Indiana Hoosiers (still never won't be weird). We saw last week what happens when a title contender doesn't play up to their potential, but the Indiana players are tough, disciplined, and don't make mistakes. And though Curt Cignetti must be feeling the butterflies leading up to the big moment, on the surface he looks calm and ready (mom's spaghetti). It's not so much that Oregon doesn't have an answer for the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers. It's that nobody does. Ore: 17--IU: 27

Schweinfurth: It's going to take quite a bit to beat the Hoosiers. You need to run the ball effectively and shut down the Hoosiers offense. Oregon can do it. The problem is, it took a pick 6 to keep them in the game. I fully expect this to be close, but Indiana has death machine vibes. Either way, this is probably your true national championship game. Mendoza keeps this one rolling. Ore: 14--IU: 17
Seeberg: I can’t decide which team winning the title would be worse. Oregon not having one is endlessly fun, but the IU fanbase went from nonexistent to never shutting up in about 1.5 years. On the field, remarkably, I do think IU is the better squad. At SOME point, however, talent and experience will win out. Ole Miss is the only good option left, but the Ducks know it’s this year- with big bad OSU out of the way- or never. Dante Moore gets a #1 pick style payday with his performance and sends Oregon to the championship. Quack quack. Ore: 26—IU: 20

Week 17: Cotton Cane-dy

Standings:

1.) Hoying 51-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 50-18 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 46-22 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-23 (2-12 upset)

With the departure of the stupid auto-byes for garbage conference champions, the 2025-26 CFP can look forward to a quarterfinal round largely devoid of chump teams (your mileage may vary on the Rose and Cotton Bowls). Will the Big Ten put a record 3 teams into the semifinals? Or will we see continued departures from the total chalk that dominated the inaugural 12-team tourney?

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1

Orange Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: I'm really interested to see how this one turns out.  The analytics have favored the Ducks all year while I've faded them (to my detriment), but I also haven't felt that Tech was a juggernaut either.  I could see either outcome here as both teams were built on all the money.  The Red Raiders have been undervalued most of the year due to weaker competition, but the wins over BYU (both of them) and Utah are nothing to sneeze at.  Oregon's crowning achievement was beating USC at home....which is nice, but nothing to phone home about.  Regardless, I'm really torn. The analytics literally have this as a coin flip so....I'll keep fading the Ducks.  Why not? Guns up.  OU:17--TT:20

Hoying: Both of these teams have been terrific on both sides of the ball this year, but everyone's eyes are on the high flying Duck offense against the Texas Tech stone wall led by the best D-line money can buy. Both have excelled all season; which team has proven it can execute against decent competition? TTU faced some real live offenses in Utah and BYU and dispatched them with relative ease, which Oregon was able to pile on against the likes of USC and Penn State. Where will the dam break in this one? Oregon would love to take the game out of Dante Moore's hands. Not that they don't trust him, but the Ducks have preferred to lean heavily on their ground game this year, with excellent results. That is, except against Indiana, when Oregon ran for a paltry 108 yards and Moore threw 2 interceptions trying to catch up with IU. Tech's run D is like a rock, which means that Moore is going to have to make some plays to win this one. And that's bad news for the Ducks, as nobody is causing havoc to the QB this season like Texas Tech, leading the nation in turnovers and finishing in the top 10 in sacks. I mistrust defenses that build their identity on big plays but the Tech D is so sound otherwise that I don't think it really limits them. And the Red Raider offense has been great as well except when QB Behren Morton was out against Arizona State. That may be indicative of a depth issue, but if there's one Playoff game where depth shouldn't be a problem, it's the first one, which bodes ill for Oregon. A lot of new money (like, newer than Oregon) is going to be appearing in the semifinals this year. OU: 20--TTU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oregon's run game has been a problem for teams this year. They are fast and physical. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses, but Indiana had trouble with this run game as well. This is the Red Raiders' first go at this and I expect some jitters. Oregon has been there and Lanning seems to be a step ahead. I expect Oregon to move on here. OU: 24--TTU: 17
Seeberg: This one is an intriguing matchup. This season there are only 5 teams that I think are capable of winning it all, and these two are in that group. Texas Tech has basically done in one season--with oil instead of swoosh money--what Oregon has done the last 20 years; throw insane resources at the college football program and voila! Instant contender. The problem now becomes, which team do you trust? The one that's never been there before, or the one that gets there and then gets run out of the stadium by the Buckeyes? IU exposed Dante Moore a bit, not all that dissimilar to how the Hoosiers confused Sayin in the B1G title game. The Red Raiders have an excellent defense as well, but they don't scheme it up quite as well as Cignetti's crew. I also don't expect Morton to put up 30 like Mendoza did. It will stay relatively low scoring (take the under kids!), but a few more plays by Moore and his weapons will make the difference. The Red Raiders' color scheme is just different enough from scarlet and gray to see Oregon through the semis. OU: 23--TTU: 13

Rose Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm going to do it.  I just can't believe in #1 Indiana.  On paper, this should be a bloodbath.  Curt Cignetti is a psycho (which is a compliment in college football coaching circles), Mendoza is a baller (if not the biggest nerd on the planet), and that defense is straight nasty.  But.  Bama is Bama.  While they are a shell of what they were with Saban, I saw some of the hitting in the SEC championship and it was brutal.  There's really no reason for Bama to be on the same field against the Goliath of the Hoosiers...but college football is weird.  IU goes to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the LBJ administration, and, while they've surmounted all the obstacles (beat OSU: check, win the B1G: check, win a freaking Heisman: check), I feel like they're due for a regression.  Bama was getting spanked early vs. the Sooners, but rose from the ashes to take a convincing win.  The Hoosiers are WAY better, but Bama is inevitable.  Give me the Tide to end the super season for the boys from Bloomington.  Bama: 24--IU: 20

Hoying: Sometimes you watch a back and forth gridiron slugfest and walk away marveling at the clash of the titans you just witnessed (kraken release optional). And sometimes you're just thankful that you got to witness another modern episode of the Three Stooges. This year's Playoff opener was very much the latter. After getting obliterated by Georgia in the SEC Championship, Alabama managed to sneak into the CFP ahead of the much, much better Notre Dame despite handing in possibly the single worst performance of any Playoff team as their closing statement, finishing off a stretch run of miraculously escaping South Carolina, phoning in a win over LSU, losing to Oklahoma, and darn near losing to the incompetence incarnate Auburn Tigers. And the trend continued into the Playoff...for about a quarter and a half, before Oklahoma's wide receivers (and punter) forgot how to catch. I know Bama fans are hoping that all that talent (and program mystique generated by Saban) will rise up and save them at some point, but until I see some signs of life from the Tide, they're just another sleeping Snorlax in a world with no Poké Flutes. Indiana has been the real deal all season, and while they weren't perfect against Ohio State, a B effort from the Hoosiers would be more than enough to move on to a much tougher opponent in the semifinals. Bama: 10--IU: 24

Schweinfurth: Bama can't run the ball, and probably should have lost if it weren't for Playoff Oklahoma. Indiana is going to tee off on Ty Simpson. I really don't see how this goes any other way. I have not been very impressed by Bama this year. Indiana can, and will move the ball decently here. This isn't Saban's Bama. The only pause I would give is Indiana gets into "happy to be here mode" with the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Hoosiers may just be too much. Bama: 9--IU: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the SEC-Big 10 heavyweight tilt we all antic…hang on, being told that it’s actually Indiana in the Rose Bowl and not Ohio State, or Penn State or, well you get the idea.  Indiana may legitimately be becoming a college football heavyweight under Cignetti- as long as he manages to hit on a transfer QB every year.  Bama, meanwhile, may be close to fading from heavyweight status as the talks were strong about DeBoer leaving altogether if they didn’t beat the Sooners last week.  It’s like Bama fans forget they were lousy for 15 years before Saban arrived (WOW does that sound like a fanbase to the north we all know and hate).  Pretty sure the Crimson Tide faithful would wipe Mike Shula off Wikipedia if any of them knew how to use a computer.  At any rate, DeBoer is, I believe, an excellent coach, but the mystifying lack of a run game this year has cost Bama multiple times, and will likely do so again.  Bama faithful are relying on the “Jimmys and the Joes” instead of the Xs and Os to win this one, but even that argument doesn’t hold much weight:  IU has 5 prospects projected in the first four rounds next April, including a Heisman QB, 2 day two WRs and a sticky cover corner (Jeremiah notwithstanding).  The Buckeyes didn’t run it well against IU, and Bama can’t run it well against anyone.  The Hoosiers’ defense is just too good to be beaten by a one-dimensional offense, and with this game the conference just might have THREE teams in the CFP semis.  Someone keep a defibrillator near Finebaum.  IU: 24—Bama: 13

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Another game in which I have no freaking clue what is going to happen.  Ole Miss could be an absolute shell after they were spurned by Kiffin; or they could play with an unmatched fire of hatred a la OSU last year.  UGA seems to be evolving into their final form, but does anyone really trust Gunner Stockton? Kewan Lacy is a great back that could hit some explosives and make it interesting, but the Dawgs seem on a collision course in the semis with....someone (find out below).  The Dawgs sic em and end the extra payout to ol' Lane (what a tough life).  UGA: 31--Ole Miss: 17

Hoying: This is a fascinating matchup, and not just for the rematch factor. Ole Miss had Georgia on the ropes in Athens earlier this season before their defense completely ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, a result that might inspire a reversal of outcome in a second meeting of these teams, absent any confounding factors. But when Lane Kiffin is involved, you can bet that everyone is leaving confounded. The Rebs seemed very insistent to put the world on notice that losing Kiffin wasn't going to be the death knell of their title hopes, rendering Tulane into gooey paste in the CFP first round, but that was Tulane. Any of these Playoff contenders could do that to pretty much any G5 team (as long as Oregon's defense shows up in the second half). Ole Miss managed to hang on to DC Pete Golding, who has been promoted to head coach (with no coaching search???) and have the bulk of their offensive staff on loan from Lane, but how locked in are they going to be at this point? You saw Brian Hartline put up 10 points against Indiana, which was bad enough that Day wrested control of the offense back for the stretch run. Ole Miss is good enough to win the whole thing this year, and should not be taken lightly, but as we saw the last time these two teams met, you can't beat Georgia if you take your eye off the ball for even a quarter, let alone 60 minutes. UGA: 34--Miss: 27

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss got a bye last week. Let's face it, there were not tested at all. If we look at the teams that could actually win it all, the Rebels are not high on that list. Georgia is. This will be the meh game of the playoff semis. UGA: 35--Ole Miss: 17
Seeberg: Boo, the SEC gets a team into the semis by default *heavy sigh*.  Anyway, Ole Miss still looked solid in another dismantling of Tulane (yawn) despite the turmoil in Oxford.  UGA, however, is perhaps a slight step up in competition.  Gunnar Stockton has been serviceable most of the season and the Dawgs’ defense looked like its 2021 self as they dominated Bama in the SEC title game.  That formula- a decent QB and dominant D- won them back-to-back natties.  Bama, however, is almost entirely one-dimensional on offense, and Ole Miss presents more problems.  So many problems, in fact, that the Bulldogs gave up 35 at home to the Rebels in October (yay rematches!).  At that point, there still wasn’t a ton of tape on the Rebels’ backup-turned-star QB Trinidad Chambliss (all-name team for eternity, by the way).  With another couple months of film, combined with the loss of Kiffin and a lot of offensive staff, it’s hard to think Ole Miss will get to 30 points again.  Georgia may or may not get there either, but the Dawgs should do enough on offense regardless.  Another CFP semi for Kirby.  UGA: 31—Ole Miss: 20

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Miami Hurricanes vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Miami was the monstrous question mark in this entire playoff field.  Yeah, they have Carson Beck (the presumed #1 pick last year), but also, they have Carson Beck (interception machine).  The Canes definitely sport some dudes up from on both sides of the ball that could harass Sayin like the Hoosiers did, but I gotta believe the coaches put their heads together to activate demon mode for the playoffs.  I'm excited to see what Van Sickle does replacing the 'injured' Tshabola, but we all know that this needs to be the Smith/Tate show.  If Miami isn't able to get pressure quickly, I believe Day will be taking many more vertical shots than he did against the Hoosiers (the shots he took worked, there were just very few).  Bo Jackson needs to keep up his amazing freshman season to keep the defense honest and the backs also need to keep Sayin clean.  If he has time, the Canes are in trouble.  On the other side of the ball, Miami's Mark Fletcher looked really good versus A&M but this bullet defense stops the run much more efficiently.  It is imperative that the defensive line (Curry and Big Mac) pressure Carson Beck into some mistakes.  Beck has the tools to be a very solid QB and weapons like Malachi Toney to make the Buckeyes pay if left unchecked, but if he gets hit early and often with an early turnover, this could snowball.  While this game is not the layup Buckeye Nation believes it to be, the cards clearly favor the Scarlet and Gray.  Now, the title defense begins.  Go Ohio! Beat the Hurricanes! OSU: 31--UM: 17

Hoying: Gentlemen, I bring you...MORE DECEMBER BOWL GAMES! This time...SHALL BE DIFFERENT! Broken hearts in 2022 (and 2019, and 2016, and sure, throw in 2023) aside, the Buckeyes are facing a lower class of opponent (in every sense) than the Clemsons and Georgias of seasons past, and the boys in scarlet and gray are better than any of those prior years' December warriors (except maybe 2019). There's been a lot of bluster coming from Cuba Norte about how cooked Ohio State is going to be in this one, and I just don't see it. I would put this game into the "upset alert" category: there's a path to victory for the Hurricanes but it requires them to fire on all cylinders in their areas of relative strength (pass rush, run defense, Malachi Toney) and for the Bucks to make mistake after mistake after mistake. Problem is, Ohio State is not Texas A&M; the Buckeyes don't hit the self destruct button every November or so (kudos to A&M for hitting the self-destruct "30 minute forbearance" button at halftime against South Carolina). When Ryan Day has a few weeks to prepare for a postseason opponent, and he's not starting Devin Brown at QB, get ready for the Buckeyes to rain hell down on whomever they're facing. Each Playoff loss in the Ryan Day era has been primarily a failure of the defense, with the arguable exception of 2019, which was doomed in part by poor red zone execution. And while red zone execution is a continued glaring scarlet flag for the Buckeyes, Matt Patricia's defense gives the offense a giant safety net to operate their acrobatics over. Buckeye opponents actually punt in the 4th quarters of big games now! Buckeyes take care of business and turn their attention to the worst playing surface in the football world. OSU: 27--Da U: 13

Schweinfurth: If Miami can get pressure, and if Ryan Day goes into a shell, and if the Silver Bullets stay in Columbus, and if Matt Patricia quits for the NFL on the sideline and, if and if and if. Miami's defense is good. Don't get me wrong, they can cause issues for the Buckeyes. That offense was NOT good last week. Beck will throw the ball to the other team if he is confused and the Bucks certainly can do that. Day has play calling duties back and you know he is itching to release the sleeping monster that is the Ohio State offense. Playoff Ryan Day rarely disappoints. In my mind, this game feels like it could be over by half time. It won't, but the Bucks have the ability to avalanche the Canes like they did Oregon last year. Go Bucks, Beat the Canes. OSU: 35--Miami: 7
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, *breaks out thesaurus* highly perplexed, confounded, flummoxed and bemused at the amount of national media taking the ‘Canes in this one.  Did they watch the first round?  Miami won that game on a technicality:  The fact that both teams cannot lose a game, despite their best efforts.  A much more fitting ending would’ve been the Penn State-Illinois 9-OT “thriller” of perpetual mediocrity.  To Miami’s credit, however, they did win it.  The Canes’ seem to have mostly left their mid-season stupor behind, losing to two 8-4 squads while Carson Beck threw the ball to whatever team wasn’t wearing green and orange like it was on a dare.  Beck isn’t a particularly mobile quarterback which means one thing:  Matt Patricia can unleash Arvelle Reese from his QB spy duties.  That doesn’t bode well for any opponent.  Defensively, the Canes are excellent up front.  Their back 7 is…extant?  Pressure is paramount for that defense to succeed.  Sayin, with time, can pick their coverages apart, particularly with a fully healthy #4 in the fold.  I would love to see a big early lead and then watch Bo Jackson grind the Canes into powder, but I’m not convinced it will be an Oregon-like blowout.  Don’t fret, Buckeye Nation, if it’s not over after a quarter.  I suspect it will be over by three.  Jeremiah is highly motivated, and although Ryan Day will need a couple series to adjust to taking over play calling, the defense will (this is a guarantee) turn Beck over to get our offense set up.  All signs point to a methodical win.  Go Bucks, Happy New Year.  OSU: 27—Miami: 10

Five Concerns For Ohio State's Playoff Run

Entering the 2024 season, the national consensus was that the Buckeyes had assembled the best team on paper, but there was uncertainty about whether Ryan Day could finally make all the pieces fit and win the big one. And upon completion of the 2024 regular season, nothing much had changed, as the Buckeyes had stumbled to narrow losses in their two most important games but still found themselves comfortably within the Playoff. Nobody knew what to expect from Ohio State at that point; your foursome of forecasters each cautiously predicted a win over Tennessee but didn't know how far the Buckeyes could go beyond that. But, obviously, during the three weeks that Ohio State had to sit and stew after the Michigan debacle, the coaches optimized their strategy, the players locked in, and the Buckeyes went on a legendary 4-game heater interrupted only by a bit of a struggle bus game against Texas (no, the Notre Dame game wasn't close in any sense).

This season has played out a bit differently. Expectations were tempered, the 2025 Buckeyes seemed to hit even higher highs than their national champion forebears...and then they hit a similar pre-Playoff brick wall. The quality of the opponent blunted Buckeye Nation's unease heading into this year's Playoff, but we're still left to wonder: can the Buckeyes get their groove back, again?

Looking back on what Ohio State has accomplished, and failed to accomplish this season, I think OSU's title defense run needs to address five key areas of concern:

1.    Who's really running the offense? Concern level: low.

After Ohio State's disastrous 31-0 shutout in the 2016 College Football Playoff, squandering a championship level defense for the second year in a row, Urban jettisoned Ed Warinner and Tim Beck and brought in long-time college football offensive mastermind Kevin Wilson and some quarterbacks coach from San Francisco to revitalize the offense. The personnel shakeup worked, and after a big of a break-in period in 2017 (still a massive improvement over the prior year), the Day/Wilson offense was perhaps the envy of the sport from 2018 through a masterful 41 point performance against the 2022 national champion Georgia Bulldogs. Then Wilson left, and Day turned over the OC job to his all-star WR coach, Brian Hartline. And the offense began to falter. Sure, Day had the worst quarterback of his Ohio State tenure in 2023, and his star running back and rock solid WR2 were playing hurt for the better part of the season, but even Ohio State's first Heisman finalist at wide receiver couldn't cover up for the fact that something was just...off about the 2023 offense, culminating in a ghastly 3 point performance in the 2023 Cotton Bowl. After an offseason arrangement with Bill O'Brien fell through, Day turned to his old New Hampshire mentor, Chip Kelly, who seemingly revitalized the Buckeye offense as they raced to a 10-1 start with the lone blemish from putting up 31 points and being outscored by 1. Hardly the offense's fault.

Then the Chip Kelly Buckeyes laid perhaps the biggest egg in program history, 10 points against a moribund Wolverine squad in their only full season under their most incompetent head coach since Fred Flintstone. But something changed between the regular season finale and the start of bowl season. The Buckeye offense returned to raining hell upon their opponents, reminiscent of 2020's program-ending onslaught against Clemson, JSN's one man air raid, and the carving up of the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs that fell just a few yards short. In other words, the 2024 Playoff offense had Day's fingerprints all over it.

That's good news, as Day is once again seizing control of the offense after another 10 point debacle, albeit against the #1 Indiana Hoosiers (that'll never not be weird) this time. Playing your biggest game of the season 3 days after learning your play caller has freshly divided loyalties wasn't an ideal situation to begin with, not that the Buckeyes haven't won a national championship with a lame duck OC before (remember Tom Herman?). In past years, Buckeye Nation pressed Day to hand off play calling duties in order to take a more managerial role of the team as a whole. But with Matty Patty putting on a defensive clinic that puts even Jeff Hafley to shame, and the special teams being...what they are going to be for the rest of the season (look, Fielding's not going to become magically better or worse at this point), I'm not opposed to Day micromanaging the offense for the next 3 games. That being said, there's always the concern that...

2.    Can the short yardage issues be fixed? Concern level: high.

I love me some postseason Buckeye air attack offense, but there has been a troubling Achilles heel of Ohio State offenses in the Ryan Day era: the inability to get a single yard when it really matters. This problem lay dormant early in Day's tenure, as the 2017, 2019, and 2020 Buckeyes all had solid running games and did very well in short yardage situations. But 2018 foreshadowed what we've come to expect from the post-COVID Buckeyes: stone walls on 3rd and short runs, and weird misdirections and gadget plays ending in frustration (remember that awful Egbuka end-around at Notre Dame?). The big exception was last year, and, not coincidentally, the Bucks brought home the hardware for the first time in a decade. But do you know what else 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2024 had in common? Mobile QBs. JT Barrett reduced it to a science, but every time the man behind center (shotgun?) has been willing to take off and get a first down on the ground, opposing defenses have had difficulty stopping the Ohio State running game, particularly on short yardage late downs and in the red zone. Now, Julian Sayin is a more willing runner than CJ Stroud, and a more gifted athlete than Kyle McCord, but as we saw early in Ann Arbor and late in Indianapolis, he can't push a pile, and the coaches have kept him in bubble wrap for the better part of the season. If Ohio State finds itself bogged down in another defensive slugfest like last year's Texas game (or this year's Texas game), which I wouldn't be surprised to see against any of Ohio State's likely Playoff opponents, I'm not sure we'll be able to find any late game 4th-and-short QB power heroics like Will Howard flashed in last year's Cotton Bowl. Perhaps, even if we can't copy Urban Meyer's mini-Tebows at QB, we can at least mix in a bit of his spread-to-run sensibilities, draw off defenders covering Smith and Tate downfield, and give Bo Jackson a chance to shed a tackle and make a special play.

3.    What are the statuses of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? Concern level: low.

Out of nowhere, Carnell Tate disappeared from the Ohio State offense prior to the kickoff of the Purdue game, and he didn't return until The Game. One week later, Jeremiah Smith played only a few drives against UCLA and then sat out against Rutgers, giving Ohio State fans a look into an alternate reality in which the usual Buckeye "death from above" attack depended upon the likes of Brandon Inniss and David Adolph. Smith, like Tate, returned for The Game, and Smith, like Tate, scored a TD against That Team Up North. In the aftermath glow of his first win over UM in his last 5 tries, Day emphasized the work that Smith and Tate had put in to battle through their respective injuries back onto the field. But while both were relatively effective against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, with Tate finding the end zone again and Smith reeling in 144 yards, neither put on the game-dominating performances that had defined the Ohio State offense through the first 8 games of the season. Each of Tate and Smith insists that he's at 100 percent going into the Playoff, but injuries have a way of reaggravating themselves, and losing either star receiver could narrow the Buckeyes' championship path considerably (just look at the 4th quarter against Georgia 3 years ago).

4.    Has Sayin lost his confidence? Concern level: low.

The hype surrounding Julian Sayin was rather muted coming into the 2025 season. Sayin had attempted all of 12 passes in his career to that point, sat behind Devin Brown during the 2024 season, and had the distinction of being overshadowed in his first career start by both the opposing QB (Arch Manning) and his own teammate (Jeremiah Smith), both of whom sat comfortably above Sayin in the preseason Heisman rankings. Entering the season, given Day's track record as a passing game mastermind, I thought that Sayin deserved greater expectations, hearkening back to the annual Heisman hype for each untested fill-in-the-blank USC starting quarterback under Pete Carroll. Sayin went on to have a brilliant 2025 campaign, marked by unmatched accuracy and an uncanny ability to read defenses pre-snap and get the ball out quickly. Sayin entered Indianapolis with the puck on the stick for every award a QB can earn, if only he could outduel Fernando Mendoza for the Big Ten Championship. But then something strange happened. Sayin misread the IU defense early in the game and threw an interception (which Inniss probably could have fought to catch if we're being honest). That wasn't the strange part; Sayin had thrown a much worse pick the week prior in Ann Arbor. But then, Sayin started to uncharacteristically hesitate. He missed wide open reads downfield, and even though his pass protection didn't exactly cover themselves in glory, his lack of decisiveness led to him taking sack after sack after sack. Now, much like the pass pro, this problem was mitigated deep in the second half to the tune of two score-worthy drives, neither of which was particularly limited by any unwillingness by Sayin to pull the trigger in the red zone. But, contrary to the perspective of some fans and Sayin's own words, I think Sayin should be more willing to let it rip downfield. With Sayin's accuracy, Tate's unmatched contested catch ability, and Smith's do-it-all skill set (and the Buckeyes' well-documented short yardage struggles) this is a Buckeye offense that should be taking more chances, not fewer. Of course, their ability to push the ball down the field will depend on...

5. How good is the offensive line, really? Concern level: medium.

It's fair to say that the lion's share of the blame for the last two Ohio State losses falls on the offensive line. Yes, the Buckeyes had some questionable play calls late against Indiana, but 5 sacks kept OSU from jumping all over Indiana early, and the failed QB sneak wasn't wholly on Sayin. And yes, Fielding could have made his field goals last year, but Graham and Grant were dictating the reality on the field every time the Scarlet and Gray had the ball. At least last year's Buckeyes had the excuse of having to replace the two most positions on the O-line midseason. The 2025 offensive line lineup has been remarkably consistent (for better or worse) outside of a rotation at right guard. Tegra Tshabola has struggled in a starting role for the better part of two seasons now, but flashes of brilliance, including just a few weeks ago against the hated rival, have kept him at the top of the depth chart. Now a late season surgery has forced the coaches' hands: Gabe "Sicko Mode" VanSickle will likely start in his place after his appearance in the Big Ten Championship helped cut 5 pre-Gabe sacks down to zero for the rest of the game. Josh Padilla, who looked like he might have been the answer earlier in the season before, like Tate, mysteriously disappearing before the Purdue game, will be back in the mix as well.

The good news is that, as alluded to above, the rest of the line has been good-to-great for most of the season. C Carson Hinzman followed up a shaky 2023 with a great 2024 regular season at LG and Playoff back run at C and earned first-team All-American honors this year. The left side of the line has been solid, with LT Austin Siereveld and LG Luke Montgomery, who started at LG and RG respectively, for your 2024 National Champions, performing well enough for second team All-Big Ten recognition. New transfer RT Phillip Daniels joined them for third team honors. Really, the only question is at RG, as well as the general production in short yardage situations as described above. In the case of the replacement of Tshabola, Buckeye Nation will be holding its breath hoping for a possible addition by subtraction.

Week 16: Twice More, With Feeling

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 48-16 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 47-17 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 41-23 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the first 12-team Playoff without an Ohio State home game. Unlike the last Playoff expansion, the Buckeyes are sitting at home in the first round of their title defense season as a result of playing too well rather than too poorly (same number of losses though). While Buckeye Nation waits with bated breath to see which member of the "We Knocked Notre Dame Out of the Playoff" club will be joining them in Jerryworld, we can also settle in to watch a pair of rematches and the Big Ten's only first round participant.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: Rematches are stupid. OU beat Bama IN TUSCALOOSA and their reward is to play Bama in Norman in a game that 'really' counts.  Let's not forget that the Sooners were EXTREMELY fortunate (lucky) to win round 1.  I believe it was the smallest postgame win expectancy of a winner for the year.  While OU has a nasty dominant defense, the offense is supremely mid.  Mateer needs to make a few plays and I'm just not sure he can do it.  Bama has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few weeks, but the talent is there.  If Simpson can stop seeing ghosts and return to a semblance of the first half of the season (sans FSU), I expect a flip.  DeBoer has a TON to play for as a loss may send him into the open arms of the dumpster fire in Ann Arbor.  Death. Taxes. Bama.  Bama: 20--OU: 13

Hoying: Ah yes, the rare home-and-home intraseason series. What is this, the Pac-2? Just over a month ago, Alabama followed up last year's waxing by the Sooners in Norman by laying another egg at home, with 3 Tide turnovers leading to 17 of the 23 points that Oklahoma needed to clip Bama by 2. Ask yourself: is that likely to happen again? Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well down the stretch, with OU failing to hit the 20 mark against middling Missouri and LSU to close out the season and Alabama getting absolutely whacked by UGA after tiebreaking their way into the SEC Championship. Both of these teams are big believers in min-maxing. Bama has a great (if inconsistent) passing game but runs about as well as Joe Oliver. Oklahoma has fully Venablized their defense but can't really do anything with the ball at all. I don't love this pick, especially since Bama hasn't looked like BAMA since beating Tennessee way back in October, but I can't see OU getting anything going offensively, even on the home turf. Looks like Michigan will have to wait another couple weeks to see if DeBoer is willing to drag them out of the muck. Bama: 17--OU: 13

Schweinfurth: Not sure how to feel on this one. We get a wonderful SEC rematch!!! Woohoo (fart). OU won the first game, and it is really, really hard to win beat a team twice in a year. Alabama can't run the ball and was embarrassed by Georgia. It's been this way all year, and I think it continues tonight. It's close. It's ugly. It's SEC football because they are both great (or not). Bama: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: To this day, I think it’s obvious to even the most casual observer that rushing Mateer back for Red River was a colossal mistake. The Sooners offense has been mediocre at best down the stretch, and even though Ty and Co in the crimson are pretty one-dimensional on offense, it’s still better than whatever OU is tossing out there now. The Sooners’ defense keeps them in it, but Bama gets revenge (and TTUN doesn’t get DeBoer, everyone wins! Well, except Oklahoma). Bama: 24—OU: 16

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This one is super difficult.  The super high variance of the Reed or...the super high variance of Beck and the Canes.  Oh yeah, it's in Kyle Field which could be bad news for the Canes.  However, Miami gets to play the disrespect card with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove while the Aggies more or less backed in to the playoffs after dropping the finale to the Horns. Elko will make sure to rein in Reed to prevent the big mistake while the defense tries to take the game over.  Cristobal will be worried about Beck, but I think the play is to let him cook and see what happens.  Yeah, Beck could throw 5 picks and lose the game, but the upside with Toney and a good Beck would overcome the homefield.  The Canes roll the dice, limit Reed in the run game, and exit Aggieland with a ticket to meet the Buckeyes.  UM: 20--TAMU: 17

Hoying: Who wants to get blasted by the most talented team in America? Earlier this season, many folks desperate to crown a title favorite other than our beloved Buckeyes latched onto the once again resurgent Miami Hurricanes. And why not? Their week 1 win over Notre Dame was as good as anyone else's and then they had that killer 3-week run against ranked South Florida (lol), Florida, and ranked Florida State (LOL). But the Canes have never really looked that great since, outside of a strong closing statement against Pitt that seems to have barely carried them into the Playoff. A&M has been a bit more consistent but seems to have saved the worst for last, getting thumped by Texas not long after needing a miracle to escape a bad South Carolina team. The U is volatile enough to lose to any team in this year's Playoff, with Carson Beck's addiction to picks threatening to flare up at any time, but they've been able to rouse themselves for their big matchups and I think they can do it one more time. Just one. UM: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Miami has the talent to win this game. It really just depends on which Carson Beck shows up. If 4 INT Carson shows up, not looking good. If good Carson shows up, watch out. Truthfully, I do think home field matters this year. Kyle Field is worth at least 7 points. UM: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg: Hmmm. What’s the ACC doing here? I thought ESPN everyone was trying to turn the playoff into power conferences only? Oh well. At any rate, the formerly vaunted U roll into Kyle Field sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…not much else. They’ll face Marcel Reed and the Aggies, sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…well you get it. Neither of these squads did much to build on that early season success as Beck decided to throw to the wrong team a lot during the middle of the year and Reed took that mantle towards the end. Both teams do have solid pass rushes, and Reed is a bit more mobile. I know they looked worse down the stretch, but several weeks off erases most of that and the home crowd should be just enough to make sure we have another away bowl game crowd on New Year’s Eve. Yay. UM: 17—TAMU: 23

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This rematch is also dumb...but could be a little interesting.  Tulane was blown out in the first round, but this was the first we saw of Chambliss.  Retzlaff was still getting his sealegs under him at that point as well.  The Rebs are fighting so many off field demons with Lane's departure, that it may galvanize or destroy their focus.  I do think the Retzlaff is a good QB that could make this a bit spicy, but let's not forget the Tulane's coach has also taken another job (even if he hasn't left yet).  Ole Miss has the athletes and should be able to outlast Tulane...but I don't think they pull away until late.  Tul: 20--Miss: 34

Hoying: Perhaps a rematch can be forgiven if the first was close, decided by a couple of big plays. Less fun is a retread of a 5-score whomping in which the visiting team completed all of 10 passes between their 2 quarterbacks, and not for lack of trying. We're talking Craig Krenzel against San Diego State levels of aerial incompetence. Generally, the Rebs are a bit more vulnerable on the ground, and the Green Wave was able to find a little bit of room in these teams' first meeting. But you're going to have to score in bunches to keep up with Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss...that is, as long as it's still Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss for at least another 60 minutes. The key minds on offense have all headed west, although a few have pledged to stick around to tamper with Ole Miss's players keep the Rebel scoring attack on track. I don't exactly expect the Rebels to crumble under the chaos, but I don't expect the same potency that we've seen over the last six years in Oxford. It won't matter this week, but the Rebs are in for a rude awakening in their next rematch once the calendar flips to 2026. Tul: 20--Miss: 35

Schweinfurth: Another rematch. Yawn. This has intrigue, but only because of Joey Freshwater. Ole Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 38
Seeberg: If a G5 team has a chance this season, it’s here, despite the blowout 3 months ago. Ole Miss is currently a well-chronicled disaster. Tulane can run it, and the storm over Oxford will keep this one close for a half or so. Can you IMAGINE the Lane social media if the Rebels lose?? Sadly, it will stay in our imaginations only. Tul: 17—Miss: 34

James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Not going to lie, I have no clue what JMU brings to this game other than an A+ social media game and a nice run game.  I've been fading Oregon all year but it continues to haunt me.  No, I'm not doubting them here.  JMU will come out with the kitchen sink, but when everything settles in, the Ducks will simply overwhelm the Dukes.  Just not enough for the little guy (but it would be funny).  JMU: 17--Ore: 45

Hoying: Perhaps if Oregon could have had a warmup game like this in last year's Playoff they wouldn't have come out so flat footed in Pasadena. Yeah, it's always better not to have to play an extra game in a lose-and-you're-out scenario, but the Ducks don't have a lot to worry about in this one outside of the injury bug. This season James Madison played a total of one Power 4 team, Louisville (what is it with Playoff teams and Louisville), and lost by 2 scores. No, I wouldn't rather have seen Duke, or Notre Dame, or Vanderbilt make the Playoff in JMU's place (it matters very little who makes the Playoff after around team #10 or so), but this is the kind of team that Oregon has been chewing up and spitting out all season (except Iowa, but they've been dragging everyone from Indiana to Michigan State into the same 17-13 slog). A Duck win sets up what should be one of the most intriguing matchups of the Playoff down in the Orange Bowl. JMU: 10--Ore: 35

Schweinfurth: The Ducks are one of the teams that could win it all. JMU is not. End of story. JMU: 9--Ore: 35
Seeberg: Well, the Ducks got their wish this year, a first-round game! In all honesty the Ducks are one of 5 teams that can legitimately win it all this year- and the only one without a bye. The best part about this matchup has been how hilarious JMU Twitter has been. Spectacular content, rivaling the Pop Tarts Bowl even. I’ll be sorry when that ends Saturday night. If Oregon avoids injury, watch out CFP they may very well claim their birthright: going on a legit run only to get smoked by Ohio State. Note the score. JMU: 21—Ore: 41