Week 9 - Go, Ohio. Beat Chicago

Standings

1) Schweinfurth    19-10        (5-2 upset)*

2) Hoying              22-12        (3-5 upset)

3) Draper               21-13        (2-6 upset)

4) Seeberg             19-15       (3-5 upset)*%

*picked a ranked team to beat an unranked team. Shaaaaaaame.

% UCLA was favored by a FULL TOUCHDOWN, wasn't a coin flip proposition according to Vegas!

There's nothing worse than losing to Penn State. Except for losing two games in a row...

Washington Huskies @ Utah Utes

Draper:  I was big on Washington early and continue to be somewhat bullish, but the schedule has been pretty weak.  The win over Stanford was lauded as a watershed moment...but Stanford sucks.  I keep picking Utah to lose and they keep scraping by.  This will be a test for the Huskies on the road, but the talent gap is a bit too much.  Utah keeps it closer than the experts think, but UW pulls out a late field goal win behind Jake Browning.  UW: 48 -- UU: 45
Hoying: So finally meet the top 2 teams of the Pac-12, in a possible preview of the Pac-12 title game. The problem is that the Pac-12...kind of sucks. What's their best win? Stanford over Kansas State? Washington has looked great, yeah, but their schedule might as well have been designed by Baylor. How well will they respond now that they're not playing the Little Sisters of the Poor? (looking at you, Stanford and Oregon). Husky QB Jake Browning has looked like a legit Heisman contender (against west-of-the-Mississippi defense, not that that's going to change this week), and Utah is fresh off of surrendering 45 points to UCLA. Keep an eye on Browning. If Lamar Jackson stumbles, Browning might win the Heisman in a walk. He won't face a real defense all year. UW: 52--UU: 27
Schweinfurth: Washington has been impressive this year. Chris Peterson has done a wonderful job turning that program around so far. Jake Browning has been nothing short of magnificent thus far. Utah is the Pac-12 version of Tennessee and keeps getting reaaaaal lucky. That luck has to end some time... UW: 45--UU: 35
Seeberg:  I have decided, officially, that I will buy the Huskies this season.  However, that purchase has less to do with the Huskies and more to do with the abomination that is the remainder of the PAC-12.  The PAC-12 is essentially Big 12 Light:  lots of offense, minimal defense, no real title contenders with the possible exception of these Huskies.  However, Jake Browning does not have the benefit of playing in east coast primetime, yet is still likely to get an invite to NYC come December.  Utah may make it into the 30s offensively, but that will not be nearly enough.  Huskies pull away after half.  UW: 49--UU: 31

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Does anyone have ANY faith in the Huskers? Yeah, they're undefeated, and we can't ignore that, but c'mon.  The schedule is supremely mediocre to this point.  Wisconsin has two losses but they're 7 point losses vs. #2 and #6.  The Badger defense is just too much (especially at home) for Mike Riley and Tommy Armstrong.  The brutal 5 game stretch for Wisky (MSU, UM, OSU, Iowa, Neb) ends at 3-2...and the Madison faithful should be happy with that.  In a game that will likely decide the B!g West (poop), Badgers emerge victorious.  And for the Huskers....you get the Bucks next week...uh oh.  Neb: 10 -- UW: 24
Hoying: Speaking of untested undefeated teams...How about those Huskers? 7-0 for the first time since they backed into the 2002 Rose Bowl and got backhanded by one of the greatest teams of all time, the 2001 Miami Hurricanes. Don't worry, Nebraska. I believe that America is still the land of opportunity, and nowhere is this more evident than in the B1G West. All you need is a fluky win over Wisconsin (see 2015 Iowa) and you can earn a trip to Indianapolis with a shot at the playoffs! What a country! Unfortunately, these Badgers are a bit tougher than last year's version, even with star LB Jack Cichy out for the season. Expect this still-fearsome Wisconsin front seven to jump around all over Tommy Armstrong and remind our new scarlet friends just how we do things in Big Ten football. The more demoralizing the better. Let's go for a biiiiig hangover effect. Neb: 10--UW: 17
Schweinfurth: I have no faith in this Nebraska team to win this game. Remember, this is a team that lost a lot of close games last year. Wisconsin lost their best linebacker in Cichy for the year and I think that will hurt a bit down the road. Even so, that Badger front seven is hyper aggressive against the run and forcing Tommy Armstrong to throw is the way to beat this Husker team. This will be low scoring and Wisconsin will leave the Huskers bruised for a rough matchup next week against the Bucks. Neb: 13--UW: 17
Seeberg:   To answer my colleague Mr. Draper, no.  Nobody outside of Mike Riley and a handful of intern staffers have faith in them anyways.  Similar to the Huskies they have taken advantage of a middling schedule to start 7-0.  However, the Huskers victories have been far less convincing.  Take similar foe Oregon:  Nebraska wins by 3 at home, Washington wins by FORTY-FREAKING-NINE, even in Eugene and dealing with whatever highlighter disaster of a uniform combination the Ducks put together.  Wisconsin, meanwhile, shut down ttun, Leonard Fournette, and, for at least one half, J.T. and Co.  That's enough evidence for me to trust Bucky more.  Jump Around again.  Neb: 6--UW: 21

Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles 

Draper: Barring a 54 yard field goal after a complete meltdown, this game would likely decide the ACC Atlantic.  This game was to be the showdown of showdowns at the start of the season, but the luster has come off the Noles.  Dalvin Cook has been a shadow of himself (and still can't block), the offense has been unimpressive,  and the defense in Tally has been a roller coaster.  Enter Clemson who had a hiccup 2 weeks ago vs. NC State (get lucky), but has been impressive most of the year.  The Noles have the talent to hang, but they need EVERYTHING to click...I don't think that's gonna happen.  The Doak crowd will come out and rattle Dabo and Co. but I don't think the Seminole D without Derwin James can contain Mike Williams and Deshaun Watson.  The Tiger D will make Francois miserable and the Noles fall at home.  Clem: 38--FSU: 30
Hoying: You don't just walk into Doak Campbell Stadium, unless you're North Carolina, that is. How did the Heels pull the upset? Was it an upset? These aren't your slightly older brother's Seminoles. The defense has been a no-show too many times, although, granted, it was against superb offensive teams like Louisville and Ole Miss. And, wouldn't you know it, Clemson is a superb offensive team. Maybe if the Noles bench Deondre Francois in favor of Sean Maguire, they can pull off another bullllllcraaaap upset like they did in 2014. Otherwise, I don't see it happening. Clem: 45--FSU: 31
Schweinfurth: Florida State is no longer the kings of the ACC. The only way this game stays close is because of Dalvin Cook. The Nole's QB play has been absolutely spotty. Clemson has looked like the class of the ACC (yes, even with their struggles). It's time for Deshaun Watson to make another statement. Clem: 38--FSU: 21
Seeberg:  THE benchmark game in the ACC, except the Seminoles pooped the bed...twice.  I still haven't decided if they're more 2015 Ohio State (talent-laden underachievers) or every Clemson team from 2008-2013 (just not quite as good as we thought they would/should be).  Regardless, 2016 Clemson rolls in as significant favorites.  Louisville had Clemson on the ropes in Death Valley but couldn't finish the job.  Then Clemson somehow got out Clemsoned by the Wolfpack and squeaked out a win to stay perfect.  My guess is that lousy outing, coupled with two weeks to prepare, will be too much for Jimbo's squad to prevail.  Clem: 38--FSU: 28  

Northwestern Wildcats @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Draper: What's gonna happen? Do you suck it up, take your medicine, and get better or quietly fade away and die?  That Urban Meyer guy tends to favor the former (remember 42-13 last year).  The loss to the Lions was horrid and shouldn't have happened, but home cures many wounds.  The young team faltered after two incredibly tough road environments and I think they can't wait to get home.  Northwestern enters on a high, but a loss for the Bucks last week has poked the bear.  I fully expect to get back on the right track with the passing and running game (to the tune of 250 passing and 350+ on the ground).  Samuel, Weber, and JT all get over 80 yards on the ground (maybe 100) and the Bucks roll back to normal.  Enjoy the Halloween halftime drill!  NW: 10 -- OSU: 52

Hoying: Losing sucks. A lot. But we haven't hit rock bottom. Losing to Northwestern for the second time since 1971 would be rock bottom. This year's Wildcats are better than most, and with Purdue and Illinois left on the schedule, they might even make a bowl game. But you don't want to head into Ohio Stadium to face an angry and wounded Buckeye squad. In 2014, the Buckeyes followed up their loss to Virginia Tech with a 66-0 obliteration of Kent State. In 2015, the Buckeyes followed up their loss to Michigan State with a 42-13 dismantling of That Team Up North in Ann Arbor. If we haven't seen this team's ceiling over the last two weeks, if there's untapped greatness ready to burst forth a la 2008 Florida, this one will look like the classic OSU-Northwestern matchups of old. Happy Homecoming. NU: 13--OSU: 42

Schweinfurth: Time for a relaxation technique. Everone breath in slowly and exhale slowly. Better? Look, the reality is, this Ohio State team is really, really young. As in, 29 of 70 traveling players are FRESHMAN. This team will only get better. Look at the history of Urban's teams after losses. They go out and obliterate everyone in their way. Sorry Northwestern, you are in the way. You can believe that special teams were a point of emphasis. I also expect this Buckeye offense to figure out what works best and stop trying to force the ball. The defense is fine and I expect Robert Landers and Nick Bosa to start getting more playing time. This week is a return to form and a refocus. NU: 13--OSU: 48

Seeberg:  Let's be real Buckeye Nation, it's time to adjust expectations...sort of.  Before the year, with roughly 49 new starters to break in, 10-2 would have been a successful regular season by most accounts.  After obliterating BGSUcks (no high safeties on D=ripe for the picking), Tulsa (only 34 offensive points, remember) and Oklahoma (Big 12=allergic to defense), the Buckeyes have fallen back to Earth.  I agree with Professor Draper that Urban is generally great in these post-loss situations, the issue, however, is the fact that we have a loss to perennial 8-4 Penn State to start.  The garbage fire fourth quarter as as un-Urban as I have ever seen, but there are consistencies to prior Buckeye losses under Urban:  abandoning RB carries (2 for Samuel all game), questionable clock management, WRs getting less separation than Sam Bradford's shoulder, etc.  Meanwhile, NW is riding the Cubs wave and a three-game winning streak.  Before the season I would've been happy with a 3-TD win in this game, and I'll gladly take that on Saturday to get back on track.  I'll be in 27D about 40 minutes before game time if anybody needs me.  NU: 10--OSU: 31

Upset Special 

Draper: Ole Miss over Auburn

Hoying: Texas over Baylor

Schweinfurth: Purdue over Penn State

Seeberg:  Georgia over Florida

Grading the Bucks: Week 8 -- Penn State

Well, that sucked.  There is honestly no good reason to take a loss here.  Sometimes, you just get bitten...but it's rare for Urban to lose games like this.  It obviously happens to all teams and coaches, but why did it have to happen to the world's most delusional fanbase and loser coach?

Offense: D
MVP: Curtis Samuel
When I said not to force the ball to Samuel, I didn't mean forget he was on the team.  Samuel is still electric and immensely talented, but he got very few looks in a hostile environment.  The main downside was CLEARLY the failure on the offensive line.  Last week, it was easy to chalk it up to Wisconsin being a solid defense.  This week, it was simply unacceptable.  The tackles (primarily Prince on the right side) were atrocious, but perhaps this is the youth of the team catching up to us.  Coming into the year, I don't think many of us would have been shocked to be 6-1 at this point, but expectations changed quickly when it appeared Urban had the train going on another level.  The lack of a downfield threat and a green offensive line is just too much.  JT wasn't super sharp last night, but the dropped passes (paging the Marcus "Jekyll and Hyde" Baugh) and lack of wide receiver separation made him look even worse.  Without better video down the field, it's hard for me to know if we saw JT indecision in the pocket of a lack of an open receiver.  Also, the media narrative of JT taking too many hits seemed to affect the coaching gameplan negatively as we saw few designed QB runs except in obvious 3rd and short situations.  Weber actually had a nice game that was overshadowed by the big run by Samuel but without more threats, this offense cannot rock like it should.  This unit has shown the greatest degradation over the season.

Defense: B
MVP: Jalen Holmes
Honestly, the defense was really good outside of 2 drives, but the one before half was backbreaking. Saquon Barkley is very talented and was held in check most of the night and McSorley was pretty bad most of the night.  The problem is McSorley was able to lead two drives in which the defense forgot how to cover the deep ball.  Arnette needs to improve but the lack of safety help (especially near the end of the half) made zero sense.  Give credit to the PSU receivers for making some really nice catches in a tough spot, but I would have preferred the big hitter to not happen repeatedly.  It's hard to say much about a unit that only gave up 72 yards in the second half.  The defense played well enough to win and win easily.

Special Teams: F
MVP: No one
I wanted to avoid the F because of the two positives on special teams (blocking an early field goal and recovering a muffed punt), but the negative were just too much to ignore.  Let's start with the Wilson muffed punt...I have been advocating putting no one back to field punts because the cost benefit ratio is not in the Buckeyes favor with Wilson back to receive punts.  Followed up by Booker picking up the blocked field goal while Urban was screaming at him to leave it alone.  Those 'gaffes' are nothing compared to the horrific blocked punt giving PSU hope (by the way, the defense was able to mitigate the pain even when put behind the eight ball) and the inexcusable field goal debacle.  Most of that's on the coaches, but the fortuitous bounce for the Lions and lack of cohesion with the unit were just ridiculous.  Urban Meyer teams are often lauded for their special teams, but I haven't figured out why.  The special teams under Meyer have caused me nothing but angst.

Coaching: D
It all comes down to the confusion on a key play late.  If you don't know what's going on, why do you sprint a green kicker onto the field and try to quick kick in a hostile environment in which there is swirling rain, and a myriad other things fighting against success? Call a timeout and regroup (by the way, I said this in real time as the team looked discombobulated (not a comment in hindsight).  What happened to the gameplan centered around the run game? Yes, we need to pass and sometimes go deep, but a lack of designed JT runs or any screens to expose the overcommitting D-line and linebackers mystifies me.  I like Mike Weber getting more touches, but the check down swing passes are more Samuel's area.  The final failure of the coaching staff was exposed on the last drive in which there was absolutely zero sense of urgency.  Wilson makes a key 3rd reception, stands up and drops the ball while signalling first down.  What the crap is that? You're LOSING and have little to no time left, and you TAUNT?  Teams are NOT going to roll over due to the Ohio State mystique...especially one with a somewhat recent history of success.  Much of this is the extreme youth of the team, but I would have thought it would have been coached out of them by now.  Perhaps this is the result of early success without adversity with a team of young stars used to always winning.  Welp, here's a big fat dose of reality.

Overall: F
You lose, you fail.  The O-line and wide receivers need immense improvement to succeed going forward.  No, the Bucks do NOT control their destiny (need either PSU to lose or UM to come to Cbus undefeated), but they are still in a good spot if they take care of business.  I do believe they can and have a really good chance of doing it, but this is a major 'come-to-Jesus' watershed type moment.  The good news: The Urban Meyer guy tends to push the right buttons in these situations.  Have faith.