Ghosts of Playoffs Past

31-0.

Chances are that's all you've heard about since, well, forget Selection Sunday, you've heard about this ever since it was obvious that Clemson was going to run the table and one of LSU and Ohio State was going to be stuck facing them out in the desert. And yet Ohio State's performances in these situations shouldn't be judged by their most recent showing, a sample size of just one game; we deserve to take a look at all of these matchups in recent memory. No, no, not Ohio State's rich history against Clemson; I've already covered that in another post. Rather, Ohio State being back in a playoff game for the seventh time this century (if we categorize the BCS national championship as a two-team playoff). I've spend the last couple weeks taking some trips down memory lane to relive each of Ohio State's previous six playoff/BCS appearances (sometimes for the first time since seeing them live) and seeing sticks out and what patterns arise. Yes, college football looks drastically different today than when the Miami Hurricanes were cock of the walk back in 01-02, but there are still lessons to be learned for this Saturday's upcoming matchup.*

*Past performance is not indicative of future results. But let's have some fun anyway!

2003 Fiesta Bowl: #2 Ohio State 31 - #1 Miami 24 (2OT)
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeye defense plays the game of its life and offense avoids game-turning disasters.

Rewatching this game, two things really jump out at me: (1) the Hurricanes were not ready for the multiple looks the Buckeye defense were throwing at them, and (2) Craig Krenzel was an absolute wizard escaping pressure. Krenzel was rolled out on practically every dropback to avoid Miami's pass rush up the middle and was sacked only once all night, though he was knocked down over 20 times. Krenzel finished as the game's leading rusher both by total yards and yards per carry. For everyone who said Ohio State could never win a national title with JT Barrett at QB, they essentially did in 2002 against an offense featuring two Heisman finalists.

And it was because of the defense. Miami's first snap of the game was a sack (the Buckeyes finished with 4 on the night) and the Buckeyes forced 5 turnovers. They had an answer for everything but Miami TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. And for everyone who thought it was fashionable to pick on Dustin Fox, he did a better job covering Roscoe Parrish than Gamble did against Andre Johnson, and Fox forced two turnovers to boot, the second of which should have iced the game late in the fourth quarter.

It's eerie how many of this game's iconic moments were foreshadowed:

• On Roscoe Parrish's first punt return attempt (a fair catch), the announcers warned about how dangerous he was. Parrish was bottled up the entire game on returns until his last chance, late in the 4th, which set up Miami's last second tying FG. Interestingly, Parrish had just fumbled a few plays early after a long reception.
• Chris Gamble (on defense) got called for a super weak holding call in the second quarter, tugging on the back of Andre Johnson's jersey, much less egregious than either (1) the holding call that was missed on Gamble's near-reception late in the 4th quarter, or (2) the famous pass interference call on a pass to Gamble in OT.
• Just before half, Willis McGahee took a quick completion and Will Allen rammed right into his knee. In the second half, just as Miami started to get its run game going, Allen tore off every CL in McGahee's knee on a similar hit.
• Just after half, Cie Grant blitzed Dorsey on 3rd down, forcing a quick throw to McGahee, who stopped just short of the sticks anticipating a hit from Dustin Fox and failed to pick up the first down, forcing a Miami punt. This foreshadows both (1) the hit to McGahee described above, and (2) Grant's iconic game-ending blitz on 4th down in 2OT.
• In the third quarter, facing a 3rd and 6, Krenzel hits Michael Jenkins but Jenkins jumps to catch the ball and his feet come down just out of bounds. This foreshadows both (1) the 3rd down throw to Gamble late in the fourth quarter that was incorrectly ruled out of bounds, and (2) the huge completion to Jenkins near the sideline on 4th and 14 in OT.

Never forget that Lydell Ross had significant carries in a national championship game that Ohio State won, including being part of 3 of OSU's 4 touchdown drives.

2007 BCS National Championship: #2 Florida 41 - #1 Ohio State 14
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeyes make the least of limited opportunities on both sides of the ball.

It was uncanny watching the Florida offense operate in this game; it was like watching 2010's era Ohio State work over 2000's era Ohio State.

If field position doesn't win ball games, it does a lot of the heavy lifting. Florida got the ball in Ohio State territory on 4 of their 7 first half possessions through a combination of dumb personal foul penalties, turnovers, and turnovers on downs, and turned those opportunities into 24 points, i.e., more points than Ohio State scored all game.

Hand in hand with field position is 3rd down conversions. In the first half, Florida was 7 for 10. Ohio State? 1 for 5. The Buckeye D tightened in the second half and held UF to 3 of 9 but the irreparable damage was done by that point.

Running the ball with Antonio Pittman was working all game except when it was most desperately needed, on a 4th and 1 from the Buckeye 29 after the Buckeyes clawed back to down 7.

You wouldn't notice it unless you watched this game right after the Miami championship, but somehow Craig Krenzel is a more slippery runner than Troy Smith. I can't count the number of times Troy ran directly into the Florida pass rush.

2008 BCS National Championship: #2 LSU 38 - #1 Ohio State 24
Game summary in one sentence: Buckeye miscues tip competitive game in favor of opponent.

Watching this game hurt the most because it was the only one of the losses the Buckeyes could've realistically won. The Buckeyes jumped all over LSU early and had a 10 point lead, and it wasn't because of fluky plays.

2007 had maybe the second best collection of LBs in Buckeye history (after Hawk, Carpenter, and Schlegel in 2005), but James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman had a quiet game compared to the third amigo, Larry Grant. Laurinaitis had 18 tackles and Freeman had 14 but neither had many impact plays.

On the other side of the ball, Brian Hartline was the only receiver doing any work. Boeckman just should have looked his way on every pass play.

Up 10-3, Ohio State punts and LSU fumbles inside the 20, then falls on the ball. The next two drives were an LSU TD and an OSU blocked field goal. What could've been...

Speaking of what could've been, if I had to pick the most important play of all 6 of these games, it would be the roughing the punter on LSU's opening drive of the second half. Down 24-10, Ohio State forced LSU into a 4th and 23 and had a chance to retake all of the momentum, and Austin Spitler dove for the punter's foot instead of diving in front of his foot to block the punt. Instead of getting the ball in LSU territory, LSU kept the ball at Ohio State's 45.

Capping that same drive, Matt Flynn found Early Doucet at the 5 yard line and broke 3 tackles on his way into the endzone for LSU's fourth straight TD drive in a row (other than an end of half kneelout). Shockingly, the defense actually finally showed up after that embarrassment, but again, the damage was done.

And a lot of the damage was done on, you guessed it, third down. First half third down conversions: LSU 8 for 10, OSU 2 for 7. The defense settled down at halftime (LSU went 3 for 7 in the second half) but the offense didn't (1 for 6 in the second half).

2015 Sugar Bowl: #4 Ohio State 42 - #1 Alabama 35
Game summary: Buckeyes make lion's share of mistakes but not enough to waste clear advantage on both sides of the ball.

If Craig Krenzel was slippery, Cardale Jones was a dump truck running against this Bama D. Linemen, linebackers, safeties, it doesn't matter, Cardale will run you over, and he will seek the contact despite there being nobody left behind him on the depth chart.

Having a run threat weapon like that is how you flip the script on third down. After the Florida and LSU debacles, OSU opens the first half going 7 for 10 on third down (and most of them were 3rd and loooong). Bama went 2 for 13 on third down all game. The Buckeyes cooled off a bit in the second half (3 of 8) but big plays made the difference.

If Ohio State doesn't spew the ball all over the field in the first quarter this game is never close. Zeke started gashing Bama for a 54 yard run on Ohio State's first drive and he never looked back. Go back and watch that 54 yard run; it's even better than the more famous 85 Yards Through the Heart of the South.

The only other negative for the Buckeyes was the play calling in their goal-to-go situations:

• Cardale run for no gain
• Cardale pass incomplete
• Cardale pass incomplete (field goal)
• Cardale sack for loss of 8 yards
• Cardale completion for 5 yards
• Cardale pass incomplete (field goal)
• Cardale run for loss of 1 yard
• Cardale pass incomplete, with DPI
• Cardale pass to Marshall for loss of 1 yard (at this point in the game, Zeke has 111 yards on 10 carries but whatever)
• Zeke run for 3 yards
• Zeke run for 3 yards, FIRST TD OF THE DAY

I lied, one last problem. Late in the game, with a 2 TD lead, Ohio State seemed determined to let Bama back in the game. First, Tyvis Powell and Doran Grant both decide to bite on a double move and allow a 50 yard bomb over their heads. Then, the Bucks try for a home run ball instead of eating clock and feeding Zeke. Thankfully, Bama's clock management skills on their last drive are terrible and their Hail Mary is devoured by Tyvis Powell.

One of the most fun things about rewatching these games is the "hey, it's that guy!" moments where forgotten players get a chance to shine. The most "hey, it's that guy!" guy from this game is WR Corey Smith, who blew up multiple Alabama kickoff returns inside the 20 (Urban's coffin corner kickoff strategy was masterfully realized in this game) and had some nice blocks to go along with a catch.

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: #4 Ohio State 42 - #2 Oregon 20
Game summary: Buckeyes' multiple mistakes barely slow down a complete domination.
I still can't believe Oregon was a 7 point favorite in this game. Did the oddsmakers even watch the Sugar Bowl? At any rate, it looked like they would be vindicated early. Oregon score, Buckeye punt, and Oregon is only stopped by a drop on 3rd down on their next drive.

Zeke was great against Wisconsin and Alabama, but he was virtually unstoppable in this game, as was Cardale on the scramble. After their first drive, the Buckeyes did not punt again until halfway through the fourth quarter (except for a punt right before half as OSU tried to run out the clock and failed). There are four turnovers sprinkled in that mix, but all were on drives on which the offense was moving the ball. The all-important third down? Ohio State converted 5 for 8 in the first half (plus a fourth down conversion), compared to Oregon's 2 for 8.

I love JK Dobbins, and I think he's going to have a big game against Clemson, but give me Zeke any day of the week for his speed advantage and outstanding blocking prowess.

Oregon made a few mistakes as well (mostly drops on wide open deep balls) overall the Buckeye D was pretty solid all day. WR Byron Marshall and RB Travis Tyner (not Royce Freeman for some reason) were the only Ducks to find any room to work.

2016 Fiesta Bowl: #2 Clemson 31 - #3 Ohio State 0
Game summary in one sentence: Unimaginative offensive game plan squanders good defensive effort.

This was the only loss in the bunch that was not a total team failure by the Buckeyes. The defense actually played pretty well, notwithstanding the 31 points. Both second half touchdowns were on short fields, and the defense scored two interceptions early in the game, one to set up the offense with a scoring opportunity (missed field goal #1) and one to end a Clemson scoring threat.

Oh, and Cameron Johnston was unimpeachable: 7 punts averaging 49.7 yards, with a long of 61 and 3 down inside the 20.

The offense didn't just suffer from a lack of preparation; the in-game decision making was maddening as well. On Ohio State's first drive into Clemson territory, Michael Jordan went down to an injury and was replaced by Demetrious Knox at LG. On third and 1, the Buckeyes run JT TO THE LEFT and Knox misses the snap count, standing there like a statue while the DL devours JT. Tyler Durbin, who at this point is a total head case after missing two easy FGs against Michigan, then blows a scoring chance.

The receiving corps was a hellscape this year. After the departure of Devin Smith and Michael Thomas, the only upperclassman of note was Corey Smith, and the only other options were the young guns Noah Brown, Binjamin Victor, K.J. Hill, Terry McLaurin, and Parris Campbell (who was involved kickoffs only), who at this point, we know, were not getting any meaningful guidance from their position coach. All day it seemed like the only guy JT even looked at was Curtis Samuel, who was had 9 catches on 11 targets. OSU's other receivers? 7 catches on 22 targets.

Not that the coaches trusted the receivers or JT anyway. I don't think I saw a deep route until the game was practically out of hand and the Buckeyes just said "screw it" and started chucking it on every play (which, incidentally, gave them their best drive of the game).

Also, for a team that supposedly couldn't throw down field, Ohio State showed zero commitment to the run game. Mike Weber didn't get a single carry until halfway through the second quarter and didn't get a second until the second half. Of course, he did fumble on his second and third carries, so maybe the coaching staff knew something we didn't...

Once more, the third downs tell the story. Clemson went 8 for 17 (not a bad performance by the defense) and Ohio State went 3 for 14, including an abysmal 2 for 9 in the first half.

New Year's Six - Tiger Slam

Final Regular Season Standings:
1. Hoying 44-11 (4-10 upset)
1. Schweinfurth 44-11 (2-12 upset)
1. Seeberg 44-11 (1-13 upset)
4. Draper 39-16 (2-12 upset)

The #1 seed may have eluded our beloved Buckeyes but we're back in the Playoff again to face a familiar foe, the Tigers. Just like Oklahoma. And Penn State (except for the playoff part, great but not elite). Thankfully, none of these games is on a weekday New Year's Eve (although the Orange Bowl is strangely on a Monday night). For the Bucks, it's just another college football Saturday before a championship Monday night. Beat Clemson.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28

Cotton Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Oh joy....will the Lions be able to get interested in the Little Sister's of the Poor Bowl? Memphis is a fine team, but the athletes don't match up.  Add on top of that the fact that Mike Norvell is in Tallahassee equals trouble for the Tigers.  Regardless, Memphis is a decent team to beat UC twice, but Penn State is a different monster.  If Penn State doesn't take umbrage at the matchup vs. the Group of 5 representative, Sean Clifford and Co. should take care of business.  Look for the Tigers to come out swinging but falter in the 2nd half.  Mem: 17 -- PSU: 31
Hoying: Welcome to this year's token little brother bowl. The group of Group of 5 teams vying for this slot was a bit thicker than usual, but that was mostly because none of the contenders really set itself apart. Memphis got the nod thanks to the AAC being a bit deeper than the other Group of 5 conferences (maybe even the ACC) but have they really been so great? Beating bad Ole Miss by 5 is nice, but Penn State has been getting real live wins over real live teams not named Ohio State or...Minnesota. Expect this on to be close, as Penn State hasn't put away a quality opponent all year, but the Lions' stifling D is too much for Memphis to handle, especially with their coach already out the door. Mem: 24--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: As much as I railed on and made fun of Penn State this year, they are the better team here. Not only that, they were passed over for the Rose Bowl. Penn State should win, unless they are caught sulking. Mem: 13–PSU: 31
Seeberg: Rough situation for Penn State here, really a no-win scenario (not near as ugly TTUN/Bama, however.  I really wish neither team could win).  Win even in decent fashion and it still looks iffy for the program to not be able to dominate a group of 5 champion.  And in all honesty, that's probably what will happen.  In theory, the Nittanys should be able to lean on a reasonably talented but far less deep team than themselves and the talent gap should be evident over four quarters.  Here's hoping that theory comes to fruition.  Mem: 24--PSU: 35

MONDAY, DECEMBER 30

Orange Bowl: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida Gators
Draper: This is the one.  On paper, this shouldn't be close.  The Gators defense has been phenomenal all year and the Hoos are coming off a beatdown to Clemson in the ACC championship, but every year, there's one weird result.  I'm throwing my chips in the upset bucket here.  Florida is a mediocre offensive unit and a power pass rushing team,  Bryce Perkins is going to be able to both run and pass in a surprise showing.  The Gators have nothing to play for, but the Cavaliers see this as the Superbowl.  The Wahoos shock the Gators in Miami (let's not forget this Florida team almost lost in Miami in Week 0...and the Hurricanes are the 2nd best team in the...city. UVA: 24 -- UF: 20
Hoying: Nobody wants to be the bowl stuck with the interloping Group of 5 team, but this year's Orange Bowl may have gotten the shorter end of the stick. You know it's bad when a New Year's Six game has the largest spread (Florida -14.5) in all of bowl season. Although the Peach Bowl's not much better. What's there to say about Virginia? They finally got the Hokie off their back after 15 years, but there's not really another good win on the schedule (because they aren't available in the ACC) and the less said about the Clemson game, the better. UF played a murderer's row including TWO FCS teams and lackluster out of conference matchups against flagging FSU and Miami teams (still better than most of the scheduling in the SEC), picking up a nice win against Auburn and little else. The Gator D has hung tough all year, only faltering against Juggernaut Joe and LSU, and they'll be more than up to the challenge of handling Virginia's pass-only offense. UVA: 13--UF: 27
Schweinfurth: Virginia was the ACC sacrifice to Clemson and felt like they were a bit lucky to be there. Florida has played a much tougher schedule and seemed to be coming on late in the year. Gators win. UVA: 10–UF: 17
Seeberg:  OK, I get all the bowl tie-ins to conferences I really do, but letting any ACC team not named Clemson anywhere near a bowl game of consequence is an outright farce.  It will be ugly to watch but the SEC gets the...bragging rights (?) of beating a 4-loss ACC squad that mustered just 9 points in a loss against Miami (you know, the team that just got shut out by Louisiana Tech).  Bleh.  Onto the next one.  UVA: 10--UF: 31

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: This might be the best matchup outside of the playoff.  Oregon has been playing very well outside of gagging in Tempe while the Badgers are a Lovie Smith miracle from beating undefeated (outside of OSU).  While the Badgers didn't last in Indy, they played much better than I think even they expected.  Jack Coan looked pretty good while Taylor finally had a non-stinker against the Bucks.  Oregon has a defense this year (huh?) but they are led by Justin Herbert who is seen as a top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft (pleeeeease not Cincy).  The Wisconsin defense should drive Herbert's stock down.  I like the Badgers to nip the Ducks in a fairly low scoring contest.  UW: 20 -- Ore: 17
Hoying: The last time these two met in the Rose Bowl it was the Ducks who emerged victorious in a wild shootout that featured Wisconsin spiking the ball on Oregon's 25 down seven with no time left. This year's version of the Ducks gets it done with defense, led by their top 10 ranked rush D. Problem is, Wisconsin's rush defense is even better, and that's after playing JK Dobbins twice. No problem, you may say, Oregon can rely on the big arm of future Bengals #1 overall pick Justin Herbert. Yes problem, because the Wisconsin pass D is stellar as well, and I'm sure you all vividly remember the pressure the Badger pass rush generated against Justin Fields in October and December. Oregon hasn't seen the likes of Jonathan Taylor anywhere in the Pac-12, and now that he's got his mojo working after finally finding some room against the Buckeyes, I expect the Badger momentum to continue into New Year's Day and get the Big Ten its 4th Rose Bowl win this century. UW: 27--Ore: 20
Schweinfurth: Wisconsin is a sneaky good team. The defense is legit...if Chris Orr is healthy.Justin Herbert is good, but the Badgers are very good rushing the passer. The fewer possessions in this game, the better chance the Badgers have to win. Jonathan Taylor goes for 200 and the Badgers win. UW: 28–Ore: 13
Seeberg: Oregon finally looked as good as we THOUGHT they were in not letting Utah off the hook, thrashing them in the PAC-12 title game to the misery of its leaders, further relegating the conference to obscurity.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin looked all-world for a half against the Buckeyes before things ultimately righted themselves.  Make no mistake, however, both teams are good, but Oregon has exactly 0 answer for Jonathan Taylor, and that's a problem, because when Wisconsin has an elite back, it can make their how-did-this-guy-manage-to-get-a-Division-I-scholarship litany of quarterbacks look so good that some metrics actually have them ahead of Buckeye QBs (no seriously, Hornibrook was rated higher than Haskins last year by a couple measures- it's absurd).  Taylor runs wild, the D clamps down, the B1G gets coveted back-to-back Rose Bowl wins.  UW: 31--Ore: 16

Sugar Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Does Georgia care? I have no idea, but I'd lean, no.  Regardless, can Baylor keep the points flowing against an extremely stingy Dawg D (except against LSU).  Georgia has little to no offense as it is, but the defense has been enough in every game but 2 this year.  Baylor has been fine nearly winning the Big 12 but continuing to come up short against the Big Bad Sooners.  Unfortunately for those that hate the conference that must not be named, if Georgia cares, they should win easily, and if they don't care....I have no idea.  I think the smock falls short in the Bayou.  Baylor: 13--UGA: 17
Hoying: Let's gaze into our magic crystal snowball and see whether Georgia thinks it can win this game or would prefer to phone it in and then blow off the loss as a lack of motivation. 2019 Baylor isn't quite 2018 Texas: the Longhorns blew a huge lead against OU but came up for a last gasp FG to finish the upset, where as Baylor went to pieces against the Sooners when it mattered and narrowly missed out on being LSU's sacrificial lamb in the Peach Bowl. The Bears blew through their first and second string QB on their way to just missing the playoff (Cardale's legacy is secure) and their status for game day is not clear. On the other sideline, Georgia's already anemic offense is still depleted at wide receiver, and you saw what they did against a good-not-great LSU defense with the pieces they currently have in place. I'm tempted to pick Baylor based on what they did in the first half against OU the first time and their hilarious comeback win over TCU, but Georgia is still much more talented top to bottom, and their defense is angry after being shredded in their home state by Burrow & Co. Baylor: 20--UGA: 23
Schweinfurth: Can Georgia score more than 21 points? That will determine how this goes. The Bulldog offense has been bad and Baylor’s D has been good (for a BIG-12 team). To be honest, Ikm not sold on Georgia. Baylor wins late. Baylor: 24–UGA: 21
Seeberg:  Don't expect a lot of points in this one kiddos.  Injuries to both squads coupled with less-than-explosive offenses to begin with resulted in both losing title games and shots at the CFP, albeit one team (cough Bulldogs cough) in far more spectacularly awful fashion than the other.  The proverbial $64,000 question is as follows:  Does Georgia care?  Or will they lay an ostrich-sized egg that is somehow swept under the rug by the mainstream ESPN-led media?  Honestly I don't know.  Georgia is clearly more talented, Baylor likely more motivated (and possibly better coached as well).  I truly think it's first to 20 will win...and Baylor may just get there late.  In the immortal words of Stephen Colbert, what's the biggest threat to America? (Georgia, at least).  BEARS.  Baylor: 20--UGA: 13

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 28 again

Peach Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: This playoff features 2 games in which everyone is picking the same teams.  No one....NO ONE is giving the Sooners a shot in this game.  I think the Heisman tour and the constant barrage of the one seed being perceived as a bye will lull the Tigahs into a false sense of security.  Oklahoma, while not on the level of the top 3 teams, is still very good.  I expect this to be much tighter than the experts, but LSU is good enough to come back when in a hole.  Coach O and company escape with a nailbiter to return to New Orleans for the title.  OU: 38--LSU: 41
Hoying: This year's playoff field may be the deepest in the six years of the tournament. Oklahoma, however, is no part of that calculus. Oh sure, they're more appealing than 2017 Alabama (entering the playoff at least) and maybe even their 2015 and 2018 counterparts, but this year's postseason is all about the undefeated blue bloods in the Fiesta Bowl and the Tide-vanquishing unstoppable LSU Tigers. Nobody is giving the Sooners much of a shot in this game, and it doesn't help when you lose your best pass rusher and your change of pace running back to suspension, and then your star safety gets all busted up in practice (not a game). I still don't fully trust LSU and Coach O, and I think the winner of this game loses in New Orleans regardless of how each semifinal plays out, but this seems like an obvious LSU win. So I'm picking LSU, obviously. OU: 27--LSU: 44
Schweinfurth: LSU is clearly the better team. An already overmatched Oklahoma team now has to deal with a few suspensions. The Sooners best chance is to make this a shootout and hope to have the ball last. Unfortunately, LSU should be able to get a few stops. OU: 35–LSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah we jump from what will likely be brutal to watch to what should be a helluva lot of fun.  This really shouldn't be a blowout despite the -13.5 betting line in LSU's favor.  The Tiger D has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, but that may be due to playing lackluster offenses, which is certainly not what they'll see here.  Still, it's tough to imagine any Big 12 D holding the LSU juggernaut down, so unless the Heisman curse (see:  Troy Smith, 2006) bites again, LSU rolls into Nola to try to grab a natty.  OU: 34--LSU: 45

Fiesta Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Another game in which NO ONE is picking the Buckeyes (this isn't bulletin board material...I haven't found anyone outside of Columbus picking OSU).  Clemson is a stellar team, but so is this OSU team.  Most of the talking heads have touted the great (#2 in the nation!) average margin of victory for the Tigers (+35.2) which is the excuse for why Clemson's schedule doesn't matter... One problem with this argument...The Bucks are #1 at +36.2 against a MUCH better schedule.  Honestly, this game is a pure toss-up.  Both teams are extremely talented and fairly similar (stud QB, great skill players, stout defense, etc.).  Can Clemson continue their dominance against a real team? Can the Bucks defeat a team that has been a thorn in their side...forever? Let's hope Fields' knee holds up and Chase continues wrecking up the place.  The playoff revenge tour starts here.  OSU: 35--Clem: 31
Hoying: Clemson sure has looked good this year, haven't they? There was the puzzling sputtering offensive performance against North Carolina (that would have knocked Clemson to, what, the #4 seed had they lost?) but the Tigers have otherwise been basically flawless. They have playoff experience (talking point alert). But big whoop, the Buckeyes have been to a NY6 or BCS bowl every year for the last 7 seasons, and after weathering the Rose Bowl last year I don't think they're going to get caught in the big lights of the big game. The Buckeyes have showed even fewer vulnerabilities than the Tigers, and, to steal the other talking point going into this game, they are battle tested, carving a path of destruction against some of the top defenses and most complete teams in the country. Yes, we know that Clemson has been doing what they can against the terrible competition they've been dealt. Yes, we know the advanced stats put them nearly on par with Ohio State. But the advanced stats loved Utah. Then they folded like a house of cards against the attack of the Ducks. The advanced stats really loved Alabama. Then the Tide played the only two decent teams on their schedule and fell flat against both. Don't let the "eye test" fool you: whom have you played and whom have you beaten? On Sunday morning, after a steady dose of JK Dobbins, who has yet to be stopped in any meaningful way this season, and a few Clemson miscues in the passing game, the Buckeyes will be able to wake up and answer that question for the first time in program history with "the Clemson Tigers". Go Bucks. Beat Clemson. Clem: 28--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This is the first time this year I am not absolutely confident that Ohio State will win. Clemson has talent all over the field and Travis Entienne is a beast. Add in all world QB Trevor Lawrence and Clemson has the best offense Ohio State has played all year. Fortunately, Clemson hasn’t played a team anywhere near the talent of Ohio State. Clemson played one ranked team (UVA) and they were barely ranked. The Bucks have a great shot if Dobbins and the Buckeye offensive line control the Clemson front. I think they can. Lawrence has a tendency to throw the ball in dangerous places so Okudah and company needs to get their hands on passes when the time arises. This feels like the 2015 Sugar Bowl. The outcome should be the same. Clem: 35–OSU:42
Seeberg:  Apologies in advance, Buckeye Nation, I have a bad feeling about this one.  Six weeks ago I was ready to anoint this 2019 Ohio State iteration the champions of all creation...but that was six weeks ago.  Now in late December, chinks have shown in the armor.  An injury here, a loss of stud rusher Jonathan Cooper there.  A slow start (twice), a defense that was pasted for over 140 rushing yards in a half a week after giving up 250 (!) passing yards in a half.  Were those issues ultimately fixed?  Mostly.  Did the Bucks win those games going away?  You bet.  Were either of those teams in the same stratosphere as Ohio State or, more importantly, the current opponent?  Not even close.  Despite all the recent relative struggles, I was still picking the Bucks to win this one until video surfaced a couple days ago of a supposedly "80 to 85 percent" Justin Fields noticeably limping in practice.  That was the last straw.  I suspect he will still be mobile enough to escape the pocket at times (though he tends to hold the ball too long too often anyhow), but his run threat is compromised, which makes keying to stop Dobbins actually feasible for the first time all season.  My other concern is legitimately all-world coach Ryan Day.  He admitted he got tight with his play-calling in the PSU game after the miscues made the game close.  This game will be close throughout, will he tighten?  Maybe, maybe not, but we know Dabo and Venables will be composed and adjust reasonably well.  Make no mistake, Ryan Day will have many more opportunities on this stage as the Bucks' head coach, but to be the king you gotta beat the king, and an 80% starting quarterback just isn't gonna do it.  *sigh  Tigers late.  Clem: 31--OSU; 27

Diagnosis: Clemson

"There's nothing that cleanses the soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

- Wayne Woodrow "Woody" Hayes

On December 28, 2019, the Ohio State Buckeyes will face the Clemson Tigers for the fourth time. The Tigers are one of only two teams (Florida State being the other) that the Buckeyes have played at least three times but never defeated. But while Ohio State's history against Clemson has been enormously frustrating, no opponent, with the possible exception of our hated rivals to the north, has been as instrumental in exposing the Buckeyes' flaws and inspiring them to take drastic corrective action. Here is a brief summary of each of Ohio State's historic losses to Clemson, the underlying problem brought to light in the process, and how the scarlet and gray used the lesson their advantage.

1978 Gator Bowl: #7 Clemson 17 - #20 Ohio State 15
Diagnosis: The Head Coach Is Unstable

You all know the story here. Late in the 4th quarter, driving into field goal range, Ohio State QB Art Schlichter threw an ill-advised interception to Clemson D-lineman Charlie Bauman, who was rewarded for his efforts with a swift punch to the throat from Woody himself. The Buckeyes lost and Woody was fired the next day.

Woody was a deservedly beloved Ohio State institution both on and off the field, but assaulting an opposing player was the final blow in what had been a series of outbursts by the increasingly unstable coach. Woody tore up the yard markers on the Michigan Stadium sidelines in 1971, shoved a camera into a news photographer's face before the 1973 Rose Bowl, and punched a cameraman late in the 1977 installment of The Game. Woody was replaced with the more even-keeled Earle Bruce, who took Ohio State to an undefeated regular season, a win over that team up north for the first time in 4 tries, and came within one point of a national championship in the Rose Bowl. The coach was steady, and the results were steady (exactly 3 losses a year for the next 7 years, not quite as good as Ohio States' performance during the 10-year war but still best in the Big Ten over that period). Even more importantly, Bruce briefly oversaw the brief development of two young assistant coaches, Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, who would lead the Buckeyes to even greater heights in the years to come.

2014 Orange Bowl: #12 Clemson 40 - #7 Ohio State 35
Diagnosis: The Pass Defense is Nonexistent

To be fair, not all of the credit for this discovery belongs to Clemson. The Buckeyes were playing the Tigers in the Orange Bowl rather than heading to Pasadena to face their other invincible foe, the Florida State Seminoles, in the final BCS National Championship, because of a poor showing on defense in their immediate preceding game. In the 2013 Big Ten Championship, the undefeated and #2 ranked Buckeyes found themselves in an early 17-0 hole thanks to an uninspired first half performance by the secondary, and after fighting back to take a 24-17 lead, collapsed late to fall to the Spartans 34-24. The loss broke the Buckeyes' 24 game win streak to open Urban Meyer's tenure, a streak that had again been seriously threatened the week prior in a 42-41 win over 6-6 Michigan. In that game, Wolverine QB Devin Gardner passed for an absurd 451 yards and came within a 2-point conversion of a stunning upset.

Back to the Orange Bowl. Ohio State's already shaky pass defense got dealt a couple of blows: top corner Bradley Roby suffered a knee injury against MSU and would finish his career on the sidelines, and top pass rusher Noah Spence was suspended for violating the Big Ten's substance policies. The Buckeye offense put up 5 TDs but the defense was several steps behind all game, giving up 3 late scores as Tajh Boyd racked up 378 passing yards on the day, 227 of them going to Sammy Watkins. To this day, 35 points remains the most scored in a Buckeye defeat.

As the Buckeyes moved into the offseason something of a minor miracle occurred. Co-DC and safeties coach Everett Withers left to take the head job at James Madison and was replaced by Chris Ash, who installed an aggressive quarters coverage scheme similar to Pat Narduzzi's "No Fly Zone" at Michigan State. D-line coach Mike Vrabel left to follow departing Penn State coach Bill O'Brien to the Houston Texans, and in the wake of O'Brien leaving Penn State, the Lions' legendary D-line coach Larry Johnson jumped ship and landed with the Buckeyes.

You know what happened next. The offense weathered the departure of Carlos Hyde and darn near the entire starting O-line, as well as the preseason injury to Braxton Miller, and the pass defense engineered a remarkable turnaround, from 112th in the nation in pass defense in 2013 to 29th in 2014, enough to secure the Buckeyes' most recent national championship. And the D continued to perform at an elite level until the last year of Urban's tenure.

2016 Fiesta Bowl: #2 Clemson 31 - #3 Ohio State 0
Diagnosis: The Passing Attack Isn't a Credible Threat

Urban Meyer's teams have always been built on spread-to-run. During his coaching career up through the 2014 championship season, Urban had enjoyed success with talented quarterbacks like Alex Smith, Chris Leak, Tim Tebow, Braxton Miller, and JT Barrett, but his most effective offensive game plans prominently featured the run game. Unfortunately, after OC Tom Herman's departure following Ohio State's 2014 national championship, the offense began to sputter, particularly through the air. Cardale Jones, who just the prior season had quarterbacked Ohio State during perhaps their greatest three-game stretch in program history, was puzzlingly ineffective in 2015. In frustration, the coaches restored JT Barrett to the starting job but he didn't fare a great deal better, culminating in an embarrassing 17-14 loss to Michigan State that featured 132 total yards of offense from the Buckeyes, 46 of which came through the air. But that was late loss to a great defense via a last-second field goal. And Ohio State didn't lose again over its next 14 games outside of a fluky dropped game to Penn State on a blocked field goal. The Buckeyes even earned a second trip to the playoff the next year, as the passing game showed signs of mild improvement in 2016.

Then disaster struck.

The Buckeyes, despite being 3.5 point favorites over the #2 Clemson Tigers, amassed a total of 215 yards, 127 of which came through the air, on their way to their first shutout loss since 1993. JT threw 2 interceptions in Clemson territory and posted a paltry QBR of 15.2 as the Tigers loaded up to stop the run but Ohio State's anemic passing attack could not take advantage.

Once more, the loss to Clemson spurred the Buckeyes into action. Co-offensive coordinators Ed Warinner and Tim Beck scurried off to Minnesota and Texas and were replaced by former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson and some NFL quarterbacks coach named Ryan Day. JT went on to eclipse his stellar freshman season in his farewell tour, and Dwayne Haskins stepped in the following year and obliterated every Ohio State passing record on the way to finishing 3rd in the Heisman voting. This season, we've seen transfer QB Justin Fields step into Day's/Wilson's system and find even more immediate success, placing 3rd in the Heisman voting despite rarely accumulating many meaningful second half reps.

Ohio State's perfect season and appearance in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl are the culmination of plans that were put in place years ago in response to lessons learned at the hands of the Clemson Tigers. Let's hope that, for once, the Buckeyes can play the role of the diagnostic and send Clemson home with their own list of needed improvements.

Week 15: Badger Badger Badger Badger Badger Badger

Standings:
1.) Hoying 41-8 (4-10 upset)
2.) Seeberg 40-9 (1-13 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 39-10 (2-12 upset)
4.) Draper 36-13 (2-12 upset)

You know them, you hate them, you saw them get whacked in Columbus a couple of months ago, you've seen them lose to the Buckeyes twice in Indianapolis before, and now you get to see them again. Also, in a very neat and tidy weekend, you get to see 9 other conference championship games, and nothing else, as the Playoff field comes into final focus.

FRIDAY 

Pac-12: Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: This is an extremely difficult pick as I don't think either of these teams are, how you say...good.  Yes, Utah has been murdering their schedule of late, but I just don't care as the Pac12 is just a total nothing-burger.  Oregon would have been vying for the playoff as well if they didn't poop one away against a guy who plays to win the game.  Justin Herbert is this year's Mitch Trubisky (meh QB in college that the NFL scouts think will be transcendent--and isn't). Finebaum is taking a lot of heat for saying no one in the country wants to see Utah in the playoff.  This is almost true.  If we end as the 1-seed, I would LOVE to see Utah as the 4 seed.  Utah: 27 -- Ore: 24

Hoying: I hesitate to put this one on the same level as the other Power 5 championships, not because the Pac-12 is the worst conference in the playoff era (they aren't, hi, Big 12), but because this game is played in the middle of nowhere outside of a nightmare traffic city at 5 PM local time on a weekday. Which means nobody will be there. The Utes are making back-to-back appearances (the two Utes?) hoping to avenge their horrible offensive performance last year against the Huskies. Oh, that should be no problem against a top 20 rated defense? Uh oh. The Ducks have fallen off a bit after allowing single digits for 5 games in a row earlier this year but are fresh off of holding their rivals to 10 points (you know, the Beavers that had just hung up 53 on Washington State the week before). But the Utes have been executing Buckeye-esque dominance against a Clemson-esque schedule (so, just Clemson-esque dominance) outside of a puzzling loss to USC and show no signs of slowing down. Let the debate begin between Utah and the Big 12 champ for the 4th playoff spot. Utah: 34--Ore: 24

Schweinfurth: Hey look, it's not Pac-12 After Dark for once. I don't know a whole lot about either team just for the simple fact of Pac-12 After Dark (aka my bed time). I will say this, Utah needs to win big against Oregon to have a shot at the 4 spot. I do see the Utes winning, but Justin Herbert will keep this close. Utah: 35--Ore: 31

Seeberg: I'm an old man.  Not "GET OFF MY LAWN" old just yet, but too old to stay up and actually catch PAC-12 games most weeks, at least in their entirety.  Oregon slipped up at ASU a couple weeks ago but completely carpet-bombed USC at their place just two weeks earlier, at the site of Utah's only loss to date.  All of the Utes' wins since that debacle have been by at least 17, save a 5-point escape at Washington.  I'm not certain if my ears can adjust to hearing "Utah" and "playoffs" in the same sentence when we aren't talking about the Malone/Stockton/Hornacek Jazz teams of the 90s, but we may very well end up there.  I just hope the don't wear those awful throwbacks the had on for their dismantling of Colorado last week, almost like a competition with the Ducks for worst gear.  Utah: 31--Ore: 27

SATURDAY

Big Nude Saturday 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: What's going to give? Will the team that dominated the first half of the first game (side note: rematches SUCK) and honestly looked like the better team finish the job or will they cower in the wake of the historical name?  I continually hear about how this year's OU is different in that their defense is better than previous years, but I haven't seen it.  Baylor looked phenomenal for a nice chunk of game 1 and if they can come close to that level of execution for 60 minutes, they may run the Sooners out of the building.  This is the opportunity for Jalen Hurts to try to leave a lasting impression to get the middle America voters to pay his way to New York, but I think the little engine that could in Baylor throws another wrench into the playoff system and knocks off the big bad Sooners.  The national pundits have penciled in Utah and OU victories in their discussions...probably because they don't want to face the possibility that Baylor leaps to #4....it could happen.  Baylor: 41--Okla: 34

Hoying: Thankfully I didn't have to break this out for the Pac-12 title game, but it is championship rematch weekend, so it's time for the How Pointless? meter, where I weigh in on how unnecessary the game at hand is. 

How Pointless? Moderately pointless. Every Big 12 championship game is a rematch, but at least these teams are tied atop the rankings. In the bad old days, Oklahoma would take its head to head win over Baylor and hope its resume was good enough to earn the #4 spot in the Playoff. Now, Oklahoma has a good opportunity for another quality win (over the same team) and Baylor has a huge opportunity to avenge their loss and complete their case for the #4 spot in the Playoff, a la Oklahoma last year. And make no mistake, the Bears are good enough to take this one; it wasn't a complete fluke that they were boatracing the Sooners in the first half last time. The Sooners may not have been upset on that day, but the Bears are upset now, and Oklahoma is about to rediscover how hard it is to beat a good team twice in the same season. Baylor: 38--Okla: 35

Schweinfurth: Oklahoma has Baylor on tilt. That second half of the first meeting just demoralized the Bears. What makes it worse? CeeDee Lamb was out when the Sooners mounted that comeback. I still think there is enough of a mental block here that, if Baylor trails early, this could snowball. Neither defense is great, so yeah points! Oklahoma continues to torture Baylor. Baylor: 42--Okla: 45 

Seeberg:  Despite this being one of several (yawn) rematches, it's difficult to piece together the first matchup.  Is Oklahoma as bad as that first half or as good as the second?  Vice versa for Baylor?  Tough to tell, though the truth likely lies somewhere in between.  We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice" cliche, but I'm not convinced either team is good enough for it to qualify.  The committee would likely rather have had Baylor undefeated heading into this one (and have Oklahoma's only loss not an inexplicable laying of the egg against Kansas State) so that the Sooners and their #brand could upset them and slide into that coveted 4th playoff spot (here's looking at you, 2014 Buckeyes).  Nevertheless, it's a de facto quarterfinal for the playoffs and the winning squad will bite their nails until noon on Sunday.  Who's winning, you ask?  Ok, boomer.  Bay: 27--Okla: 35

AAC: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: I think I've seen this one before (side note: rematches SUCK).  This game LITERALLY took place last week and we get to play round two...for something that counts (side note: rematches REALLY SUCK).  Can the Bearcats clean up their silly mistakes  and throw their hats in the ring for the Cotton Bowl? Sure.  Fickell's team was likely one stupid personal foul from eking out a win last week...and something tells me old Adam Sandler will get that cleaned up for round two.  It's super dumb, but the Bearcats win and get the spoils. Cincy: 34--Mem: 30

Hoying: How Pointless? Very pointless. Memphis played the tougher AAC schedule and took care of the Bearcats barely 7 days ago, and now the same teams are back on the same field, playing the same game. It's not like Cincinnati got run out of the building, though, and they will be very motivated for revenge after having their Buckeye-only-tainted season and Cotton Bowl hopes ruined. Memphis is still probably the better team, but beating the same team twice, yada yada yada. Cincy: 27--Mem: 24

Schweinfurth: Cincy put up a fight last week in Memphis. There are just too many red flags for me to pick the Bearcats here. Memphis is playing well and is at home again. Cincy is going to put up one heck of a fight, but ultimately the AAC belongs to the Tigers this year. Cincy: 27--Mem: 28

Seeberg:  So the Fighting Fickells hung tough against Memphis before falling on the Tigers' home turf last week.  But now it's a title game, so at least they get them on a neutral field!  What's that, you say?  The team who won the regular season hosts the championship game?  And Memphis has the (obvious) tiebreaker?  Well...damn.  Nonetheless, the Bearcats turned it over 3 times, had nearly as many yards, allowed an opening kick to be returned for a TD, played from behind the entire game and still kept it competitive.  It's just hard to picture that many things going wrong again.  Bearcats bounce back.  Cincy: 34--Mem: 27

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: It's almost like the top teams in the SEC never play each other cross-division....hmmm.... Regardless, this should be a fun one.  Georgia gagged the game away vs. South Carolina in an inexplicable fashion making this game actually have relevance...(imagine: had UGA won that game, there's a good chance both of these teams are in the CFP regardless -- this is why the playoff designed like this is bad for college football).  Georgia has taken care of their opponents fairly easily with the exception of Auburn which was a living a breathing squad.  Don't forget that Kirby Smart and Co. went into Jordan Hare and emerged victorious (something another coach failed to do earlier this....week).  While the game should be extremely impactful and well-played, there's a good chance it will be booooooring.  Georgia's defense is very good...good enough to slow down everyone's defacto Heisman winner, and their offense is....well their defense is very good.  The Tiguhs, on the other hand, have a wonderfully explosive offense (don't forget about their running game) but their defense....well, did you see Joe Burrow's senior intro video?  I expect a relatively low scoring game LSU pulls out in the clutch.  It won't be enough for LSU to jump OSU (to Gary Danielson's chagrin), but it will nestle them comfortably at 2.  UGA: 13--LSU: 20

Hoying: How Pointless? Not pointless; these are clearly the best teams in their divisions and they haven't yet played this season. Georgia's offense is baaaaad, to the point of being capable to losing to horrible horrible South Carolina by virtue of putting up 3 points in 2 OTs, but the defense might be the best in the country this season. So, SEC classic compared to whatever the purple and gold juggernaut residing in Baton Rouge is doing these days. LSU has faced a couple of for real defenses so far this season; they shredded one (Florida) and needed everything in the bag to get any movement against the other (Auburn). Georgia's defense is better than both of those. Something has to give, and it isn't going to be Joe Burrow. Not yet, anyway. Texas A&M played Georgia to a standstill two weeks ago and LSU just eviscerated the Aggies. I don't expect a repeat of that performance, and Georgia is absolutely good enough to win this game, but Coach O's offense will be enough. UGA: 16--LSU: 20

Schweinfurth: Let's have a quick chat about this one. Do you believe that Georgia can score more than 21 points in any given game? The Bulldog offense has been a pop gun this year, so let's go with a no here. Do you think LSU can score more than 21 points on the Georgia's defense? Well, no one has really stopped Burrow and company this year, so let's go with a yes. Do you want to hear a Coach O interview post game? Absolutely. Tigers win UGA: 20--LSU: 35

Seeberg:  To put it bluntly, this game is absolutely strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness.  LSU has done a full 180 from their typical identity, scoring at will but looking like your average Big 12 team on defense.  Fromm (who they chose over Fields for reasons I literally will never be able to wrap my mind around), meanwhile, leads a painfully sputtering Bulldog offense.  On the other side(s) of the ball, Jeauxy Heisman is lighting it up on offense but UGA is easily the SEC's best defensive squad.  I'm sure if this game is even close the SEC will clamor that they should have two in.  God forbid Georgia pulls off the upset (which is more than plausible).  Still, it's tough to imagine LSU being held under 30, and Fromm certainly isn't putting that many on the board.  Geaux Tigers.  UGA: 20--LSU: 31

ACC: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: The good news: Clemson will play an opponent currently ranked in the CFP! Something of which they have precisely 0 on their current resume! The bad news: after they stomp them, they will be back to....0 ranked opponents!  Virginia had a nice little and Bryce Perkins is a scrappy QB, but the Tigers are at a different level after the close call at UNC.  Also, Dabo: no one is questioning your team.  I don't think anyone on Clemson is buying his pity party that no one believes in them.  Even Jonathan Frakes knows your story is pure fiction.  UVA: 20--Clem: 45

Hoying: How Pointless? It's Clemson against an overmatched opponent in the second half of the season. What do you think? Clemsoning isn't even a thing anymore. At least it's not a rematch (you can tell this because unlike every other week this season, Clemson's opponent is approaching halfway decent). The Tigers close out a 13-0 start without a win over an opponent finishing the season ranked. UVA: 10--Clem: 38

Schweinfurth: All Clemson does is cover. Outside of the UNC scare early, they have run away from the ACC. Not much else to say about this one. UVA: 17--Clem: 42

Seeberg:  Hey Clemson gets to play a ranked opponent!  Until, of course, they beat #23 Virginia by a million in this game.  IF (and that's intentionally a big if there) the final outcome is even moderately close, the committee might keep the Cavaliers ranked just to throw them a bone.  Not that it matters.  Personally I just want any circumstance that gets the Buckeyes in the playoff and away from Clemson in the semifinals.  UVA: 13--Clem: 45

B1G: Wisconsin Badgers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: In another twist of fate, we get another game that....we've already seen before (side note: rematches SUCK).  In Round 1, the Buckeyes completely dominated the Badgers in all phases except punting (which led to the Badgers lone score).  While this game isn't in the Shoe, Indy has become more or less the friendly confines for the Buckeyes in the B1G Championship Game era.  There are 2 questions to answer: 1) will Justin Fields be 100%?   2) Will Paul Chryst and the Badgers have something new cooked up to exact revenge?  For Q1, probably not, but he should be good enough to keep the offense churning. Watching the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor when Fields was 'iffy' didn't seem to be a problem.  For Q2: I've seen nothing from the Badgers in the Chryst Era that suggests they can adapt the gameplan to something other than ground and pound.  Now, there's a slight caveat in that Wisconsin was pretty successful in the snow last week throwing the ball all over the Gophers.  The difference is the return of the Silver Bullets.  The Buckeye pass defense must play more consistently this week (please come back Shaun Wade), but there's no reason to think that Jonathan Taylor will be able to do what he's done against the non-OSU part of the schedule.  As for the Buckeye O, JK needs to show the B1G Voters how dumb they were for voting on name and not talent or results on the field for Running back of the year.  This is the moment for 3 statement games for 3 legit Heisman candidates.  I'm seeing Young with 2.5 more sacks OR drawing 3 holding penalties (Wisky will hold on every play but get call 3 times which is WAY more than average for them), Dobbins with 120 and 2 and Fields with a more average game of 240 and 2.  Regardless, the Bucks cruise to victory, and we'll see you in the playoff.  UW: 17 -- OSU: 42 (Note: while Hoying has the same score, we came up with it independently.  I cannot change as I told my students this score earlier in the week.)

Hoying: How Pointless? Aaagghhh. After dodging bullets in 8 years of the B1G championship game, it's finally come to this: a Buckeye rematch. As stated above, we've already seen this show. These teams are not on the same level, and they have not really had comparable seasons (other than blasting Michigan). On the plus side, we should be able to see the top 10 matchup Illinois robbed us of back in October (and then the Illini lost to Northwestern last weekend, enjoy your karma, Illini). Michigan's defense is a heck of a lot quicker and stronger than Wisconsin's, and JK Dobbins and the slobs moved the ball at will for 60 minutes. Just like in Columbus against the Badgers 2 months ago. And Jack Coan is sure no November Shea Patterson. But now Wisconsin is mad about the "Jump Around" in Columbus earlier this year, they're mad about losing to Ohio State every year, and they're mad that they've been to Indy 6 times but haven't won since 2012. In my preview for The Game, I deliberately invoked the 1975 season as an example of #1 Ohio State going into Ann Arbor and winning, rather than invoking examples of #1 ranked Buckeyes suffering a tie (1973) or a loss (1969) at the hands of the Wolverines. All 3 of those Buckeye teams were dominant, and all of them destroyed Wisconsin, holding the Badgers to single digits. But in 1975, the Buckeyes followed up their win in Ann Arbor by losing the Rose Bowl (and the national championship in the process) against UCLA. The same 2-loss UCLA the Buckeyes had blown out in Los Angeles earlier that year. The Buckeyes haven't had another same-season rematch since the 19th century. Let's exorcise another ghost of Buckeyes past, lock up the #1 seed in the Playoff, and keep the Badgers mad. UW: 17--OSU: 42

Schweinfurth: These guys again? How many times does the Buckeye defense have to stuff Jonathan Taylor for the Badgers to just concede. Yea, dumb things can happen (see fumbleitis against Penn State) but this iteration of Wisconsin still doesn't scare me. I expect almost the exact same game plan: Play 4-4 cover 1, put Okuda on Cephus, and unleash Chase Young. On offense, Fields doesn't need to run much for this offense to be dangerous (see the last game against the Badgers). Look for lots of Olave and KJ on mesh routes and big runs after the catch. I just ask that we get Fields through this game without staying on the turf this week. Bucks win big and get that all important 1 seed. UW: 7--OSU: 56

Seeberg: Ok everybody, this really feels like a foregone conclusion.  Frankly that would worry me if the opponent were wearing maize and blue, but 'sconny red just isn't that intimidating.  Another 31-point win might be a bit too much to ask for (as is the accompanying Jump Around elite-level trolling), but the amount of things required to go right for the Badgers to win this game require NASA levels of computing to discern, UNLESS...  We all know it, and I won't even say it, but we were all terrified for half a dozen plays last Saturday until a certain player came back onto the field and promptly fired a Heisman-worthy TD pass.  Wisconsin will be angry, and they will be focused, but they flat out cannot throw the ball and can't consistently stop the freight train that is the Buckeye offense.  Keep everyone healthy, get the W against the W, and pray we avoid Clemson until the championship.  UW: 13--OSU: 35

Bonus:

Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers

How Pointless? Mostly pointless. App State dropped Louisiana by 10 back in October, but that was the Cajuns' only loss in conference.

MAC: Miami Redhawks vs. Central Michigan Chippewas

How Pointless? Not pointless. This isn't a rematch and the teams have identical 6-2 conference records.

C-USA: Alabama-Birmingham Blazers @ Florida Atlantic Owls

How Pointless? Not very. The Owls are a game up in the standings but they haven't played the Blazers yet. Only Florida Atlantic has the Quality Loss (TM) to the Buckeyes.

Mountain West: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Boise State Broncos

How Pointless? Super duper pointless. Boise State has dominated the Mountain West this year, including beating Hawaii by over 20. The West division is a mess and Hawaii finished on top with a 5-3 record.

Snake, a snaaaaake! Ooooohhhhh, it's a snaaaaake!

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots - After Week 14

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish. Leave a comment, but remember, we'll answer your questions, not your insults.

Let's Go Bucks Index
1. Ohio State (up 1)
2. Louisiana State (down 1)
3. Clemson (unchanged)
4a. Oklahoma (unchanged)
4b. Georgia (down 1)
6. Wisconsin (up 5)
7. Penn State (up 1)
8a. Baylor (up 2)
8b. Utah (unchanged)
10. Florida (up 3)
11a. Auburn (up 5)
11b. Oregon (up 3)
13. Minnesota (down 7)
14. Michigan (down 2)
15. Alabama (down 8)
16. Notre Dame (down 1)
17a. Memphis (up 3)
17b. Iowa (unchanged)
19. Boise State (unchanged)
20. Virginia (unranked)
21. Appalachian State (up 2)
22. Cincinnati (down 4)
23. Navy (up 2)
24. USC (unchanged)
25. Kansas State (unranked)

Others receiving votes: Oklahoma State, Air Force, Indiana

Dropped from rankings: #21 Oklahoma State, #22 Virginia Tech

Let's Go Bucks Heisman Index
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. J.K. Dobbins (RB--OSU)

Others receiving votes: Justin Fields (QB--OSU), Jalen Hurts (QB--Okla)

Draper Top 25
1. Ohio State (unchanged)

2. Louisiana State (unchanged)

3. Clemson (unchanged)

4. Georgia (unchanged)

5. Oklahoma (unchanged)

6. Penn State (up 1)

7. Wisconsin (up 4)

8. Florida (unchanged)

9. Auburn (up 4)

10. Utah (unchanged)

11. Baylor (up 1)

12. Oregon (up 3)

13. Minnesota (down 7)

14. Michigan (unchanged)

15. Alabama (down 6)

16. Notre Dame (unchanged)

17. Memphis (up 2)

18. Iowa (unchanged)

19. Boise State (up 1)

20. Appalachian State (up 3)

21. Virginia (new)

22. Cincinnati (down 4)

23. USC (up 1)

24. Navy (up 1)

25. Oklahoma State (down 4)

Dropped from rankings: #22 Virginia Tech

Draper Heisman Ballot

1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)

2. J.K. Dobbins (RB--OSU)

3. Chase Young (DE--OSU)

Hon. Men: Justin Fields (QB--OSU)

Hoying Top 25

1. Ohio State (up 1)

2. Louisiana State (down 1)

3. Clemson (unchanged)

4. Georgia (unchanged)

5. Oklahoma (unchanged)

6. Wisconsin (up 4)

7. Penn State (up 1)

8. Baylor (down 2)

9. Florida (up 7)

10. Auburn (up 4)

11. Michigan (unchanged)

12. Notre Dame (unchanged)

13. Iowa (unchanged)

14. Utah (up 1)

15. Minnesota (down 8)

16. Memphis (unranked)

17. Oregon (up 1)

18. Alabama (down 9)

19. USC (up 1)

20. Kansas State (up 4)

21. Virginia (up 2)

22. Boise State (down 3)

23. Appalachian State (unranked)

24. Navy (unranked)

25. Oklahoma State (down 4)

Dropped from rankings: #17 Cincinnati, #22 Louisville, #25 Virginia Tech

Hoying Heisman Ballot

1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)

2. J.K. Dobbins (RB--OSU)

3. Chase Young (DE--OSU)

Honestly, just fill in the blanks after #1 with any assortment of Buckeye players. Heck, put Shaun Wade in there for all the #1 pass defense in the nation's struggles in his absence.

Schweinfurth Top 25

1. Ohio State (up 1)

2. LSU (down 1)

3. Clemson (same)

4. Oklahoma (same)

5. Utah (same)

6. Baylor (up 1)

7. Georgia (up 1)

8. Wisconsin (up 3)

9. Penn State (up 1)

10. Oregon (up 2)

11. Minnesota (down 6)

12. Auburn (up 5)

13. Alabama (down 4)

14. Florida (down 1)

15. Memphis (same)

16. Michigan (down 5)

17. Notre Dame (down 3)

18. Iowa (same)

19. Boise State (same)

20. Cincinnati (down 4)

21. App State (up 1)

22. Navy (up 1)

23. Virginia (NR)

24. Air Force (NR)

25. USC (NR)

Dropped from rankings: 22. Oklahoma St.; 24. Virginia Tech; 25. Arizona State (NR)

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)

2. Justin Fields (QB--OSU)

3. Chase Young (DE--OSU)

Seeberg Top 25
1. Ohio State (up 1)
2. LSU (down 1)
3. Clemson (same)
4. Georgia (same)
5. Oklahoma (same)
6. Utah (same)
7. Wisconsin (up 1)
8. Oregon (up 3)
9. Penn State (up 3)
10. Baylor (up 3)
11. Minnesota (down 3)
12. Alabama (down 6)
13. Florida (up 1)
14. Michigan (down 4)
15. Notre Dame (same)
16. Auburn (up 1)
17. Boise State (down 1)
18. Iowa (up 1)
19. Memphis (up 2)
20. Virginia (NR)
21. Cincinnati (down 3)
22. Navy (up 1)
23. Appalachian State (up 2)
24. Oklahoma State (down 2)
25. Indiana (NR)


Dropped From Rankings:  Virginia Tech #20, Iowa State #24

Seeberg Heisman Ballot
1. Joe Burrow (QB--LSU)
2. Chase Young (DE--OSU)
3. Jalen Hurts (QB-Okla)