Friday, November 02, 2018

Week 10: Black Gout

Standings:
1.) Draper 26-10 (1-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 25-11 (1-8 upset)
3.) Seeberg 21-15 (2-7 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 20-16 (5-4 upset)

To paraphrase a Buckeye legend: road games in October are for pretenders. November is for contenders.

#6 Georgia Bulldogs @ #9 Kentucky Wildcats
Draper:  The Kentucky Wildcats in the top 10 again! Congrats to John Calipari on a....wait...this is football? And this is a showdown (potentially) for the SEC East champsionship? Whaaaaaaa????? Mark Stoops has the Wildcats churning as a legit team this year...but they were extremely lucky to take down Mizzou on an untimed down last week.  UGA was blasted by LSU, but that was an aberration.  I see order being restored in Lexington this week.  The Dawgs ascend back to the top of the SEC East.  UGA: 27 -- UK: 10
Hoying: Hope you enjoyed last week's appetizer because right here, in Lexington, Kentucky, is the SEC East championship. No, seriously. The winner of this game will have a 1-game lead in the East and tiebreakers over everyone. Is there any reason to believe that the 'Cats aren't going to get run out of their own building? Well, they do have the nation's top scoring defense, never surrendering more than 20 points in a game this season. And they have Westerville's own Benny Snell already closing in on 1,000 yards rushing for the season. But...Florida had a pretty good defense, and they could run the ball a bit, too, and the Dawgs just straight up embarrassed them. Kentucky has had a charmed season to this point, but the dream ends here. UGA: 31--UK: 13
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is having a great season and should make the field this year...of 68 teams that is. Georgia is the better team and are angry. If there is one thing I know it that Dawg H8s everything and everyone. UK barely escaped Mizzou last week. Georgia is on a different level. Good luck. UGA: 35--UK: 14
Seeberg: Can't say I thought I'd ever see the day when an Urban-Meyer-led Ohio State team was looking up in the rankings to Kentucky of all teams.  The Wildcats have Urban's national recruiting plan to thank for that, as they continually poach 3-star caliber players from Ohio that might've been scooped up by the Buckeyes in the past.  Regardless, a Georgia team that still has an axe to grind after being embarassed by LSU comes calling this week and should put an end to that momentary rankings blip.  Any team that barely skates by Missouri has no business hanging with UGA VIII or whatever iteration of bulldog they're on now.  Woof woof.  UGA: 38--UK: 17

#13 West Virginia Mountaineers @ #17 Texas Longhorns
Draper:  Welcome to the Big12 where everything is made up and the points don't matter!  Who knows who will be the recipient of a victory when the Big12 Wheel of Destiny spins.  Holgo and Will Grier have the Neers rolling, but against whom? The Longhorns were getting routed last week by the Pokes, but rose up to make it a game in a tough road environment.  As they return to Darrell K. Royal, I think the coin flips and they get some of that home magic.  Ehlinger can match Grier if necessary and the Longhorns have better athletes.  It should be a fun game, but the Longhorns emerge.  WVU: 27--UT: 38
Hoying:  The wheel spins again in the Big 12. First it was Oklahoma's turn to lose, then West Virginia's, then Texas's, and who's on the chopping block next? Well, Oklahoma (see Upset Special below). But one of these teams has to lose as well. The Longhorns showed impressive grit fighting back after getting dominated early by Oklahoma State, something that West Virginia couldn't claim in their embarrassing loss to the Cyclones. Texas has looked like butt in a lot of their games this season, and they're probably still overrated, but this is Texas Tom Herman in a big game against a top opponent. The Horns will bring their A-game this Saturday and do just enough to outperform Will Grier. WVU: 34--UT: 35
Schweinfurth: Remember when everyone thought Texas was back when they beat an Oklahoma team that can't play defense? Yea, that lasted like two weeks. Good try, good effort. Texas is much improved, but so is West Virginia. It's scary when a Big 12 team can play a little defense. Add in Will Grier and that offense and you've got something. I don't think a MENSA membership will save Texas here. WVU: 42--UT: 32
Seeberg:  In a year of rampant unpredictability, it's becoming a good assumption that a team that loses poor one week should win the next.  Texas Tom is going to put my theory to the test with an excellent WVU offense coming to Austin.  I just don't trust the Mountaineers ability to stop...well anyone competent, and any Herman-led offense should be at least that.  Go burnt sienna.  WVU: 31--UT: 41

#14 Penn State Nittany Lions @ #5 Michigan Wolverines
Draper:  Good news: someone will lose.  Bad news: someone will win.  What to do what to do? I think Michigan is starting to grow a little too big for their britches as the expectations continue to soar in Ann Arbor.  The defense is solid as we’ve known, but the offense is so-so.  The run game with Higdon is nice, but I’m not sold on Shea Patterson.  Penn State will forever be the team that could have been for 2018.  McSorley is really good (aside from his punchable face), but outside of that, the talent is somewhat mediocre.  With the game in the Big House, there’s really no reason to think a reeling Penn State can take down the Big Bad Wolverines (even if they are listening to all the “rat poison” in the media).  Let’s let the Blue get fat on these competitors and hope we can tear it down in Columbus.  It’s closer than you might objectively think, but Michigan rolls on.  PSU: 17—UM: 24
Hoying: I love this game because one of these teams has to lose. I love it even more because that team is probably going to be Penn State, who has really struggled to put together an impressive performance in a single game this year (does blowing out Pitt count?). Yes, beating Iowa is better than losing to Iowa (shudder) but McSorley looks lost and the rushing attack has ground to a halt. And who's their next opponent? Oh, it's the Wolverines, who haven't let anyone do anything against them recently. Michigan has been a little iffy away from home (lose to Notre Dame, claw back a win against Northwestern, struggle to get going against MSU), which is the only thing giving me hope for The Game this year, but this is in the Big House. You may remember it from such performances as The Death of Wisconsin's Hopes and Dreams. Now serving #6. PSU: 17--UM: 31
Schweinfurth: Two teams I love to watch lose. I guess the best part of this game will be watching a team get their playoff hearts ripped out. Unfortunately, I don't think that team will be TUN. Penn State is a on trick pony on offense: Trace McSorely. Add to that the "great" coaching of James Franklin and you have a bona fide loss against an aggressive and very good defense. This game will be closer than the 10 point spread just because Harbooger's offense is still a train wreck. I just wish I could pick both teams to lose. Please just beat the crap out of each other. PSU: 13--UM:17
Seeberg:  How the mighty have fallen...and how the formerly mighty have possibly risen.  Definitely two teams heading opposite directions at the moment.  As previously stated here on Let's Go Bucks, competent quarterback play was literally all Harbaugh needed with that lights-out D to make the maize and blue legitimate conference title and CFP contenders.  It's looking more and more like that opening week scare against App State was more indicative of who this Nittany Lion squad is...I just wish this pick wouldn't make Desmond look like he actually knows what he's talking about.  After this week, the only thing Penn State students will be able to chant is WE ARE...OUTBACK BOWL BOUND.  PSU: 16--UM: 27

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide @ #3 Louisiana State Tigers
Draper:  Boy, I'm glad these teams got a bye before this epic showdown.  Those SEC schedules 'magically' workout.  Everyone's talking about this as the game of the year...and they're probably right.  This is the toughest regular season match for Alabama this year by a mile, and Death Valley is no joke...but I just don't see it.  OSU fans continually beat the drum on the greatness of Joe Burrow, but I don't see it.  Yes, he may be the best LSU quarterback of the last 50 years, but the Tigahs aren't really known for top team QB play.  He's serviceable...and that won't get it done against the Tide.  LSU's defense is very stout as well....but that won't work against Bama either.  I'm guessing the crowd keeps Coach O alive in this game for about a half, then the inexorable certainty of Bama will take over.  Bama: 31--LSU: 13
Hoying: BAMA BY A MIL---I mean, finally Bamapocalypse has arrived. And no, I don't mean that the Tide is finally playing a team with a pulse, I mean it's Bamapocalypse for LSU, because they'll be praying for pestilence, war, famine, and death by the time this one is over. Yeah, the Tigers can play some defense. Meet my friend Tua-13.6-yards-per-attempt-Tagovailoa. Yeah, Joe Burrow's made a few clutch throws here and there. He also has a 53.8% completion percentage and has been sacked 18 times. The spread is 14, which might be the difference at the end of the first quarter if Nick Saban is being charitable toward his former school. LSU hasn't beaten Alabama since 2011, and that pissed the Tide off so bad that they swindled their way into the BCS Championship that same year so that they could grind LSU into fine powder. That might've been the best team that LSU has ever had, and the 2018 Tide may be the best team Alabama has ever had (and Alabama has a wee bit of history as an elite program). This may be the only ranked (at season's end) team Alabama plays before the SEC Championship. Do you really think there's a chance the Tide can lose this? Really? Bama: 38--LSU: 16
Schweinfurth: LSU has been a great story so far this year. I do enjoy Coach O as one of the great "character" coaches in the game to day. I mean, who doesn't love the big Cajun? Here's the problem: LSU has to be absolutely perfect to win this game. There is no room for error. This Bama team is just sick and may be one of the best college teams we have seen since Linert, Bush, and company rolled in the early 2000s for USC. I get the sentiment that the Tide hasn't played anyone and I totally agree with that. LSU has to out score Bama and I just don't see it happening. Burrow will turn the ball over at least once and I kind of expect Tua to score at will. Bama: 42--LSU: 17
Seeberg:  For those unaware, the unofficial slogan of your Let's Go Bucks writers this year is "Bama by a million."  I can't remember a season when one team seemed so clearly better than all the other horses in the proverbial race.  Maybe 1995 Nebraska that obliterated #2 Florida 62-24 in the Fiesta Bowl?  I don't know.  Regardless, this year's Alabama is that dominant.  It's Secretariat at the Belmont, requiring a hilariously wide camera shot to get any other contenders in the frame.  A million might be a slight exaggeration, but if this is competitive by mid-3rd quarter I'll be shocked.  LSU put together their one great game when they dismantled UGA, and even that effort might not win the day anyways.  Bama by a...lot.  Bama: 41--LSU: 20 

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #10 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper:  How will the Buckeyes respond? Let's look at the recent past when OSU was embarrassed by Iowa last year.  They returned home and BLASTED #15 MSU 48-3.  Will this be different? Probably, but not much.  Nebraska has faced adversity all year but has been improving (albeit with a 3rd string QB).  OSU has had the Huskers' number of late (by a lot) and no real reason to think that would change.  If the offense fixed the red zone woes during the bye week (please?) this should be a rout.  No reason Haskins doesn't go for another 400 through the air against a mediocre at best Nebraska D.  Get home, get right, on to the next one.  Let's hope the worst thing on the field this week are the God-awful black unis. Neb: 27 -- OSU: 52
Hoying: Playing the Huskers at home: good for what ails ya. The Buckeyes have never lost to Nebraska at home, winning the last 3 matchups 62-3, 63-38, and 34-7 (in the Woody Hayes days). This version of Nebraska is even more hapless than usual, as Scott Frost stumbles through year zero of what could, eventually, be a promising turnaround. The Buckeyes have their own problems to fix, of course, but Nebraska isn't a better-than-advertised dangerous opponent waiting to snakebite an unwary adversary. They're just bad. The Buckeyes will give up some points, as per usual, but either a new and improved offense will romp all over the erstwhile Blackshirts, or we might as well clean house midseason and start letting Brutus call the plays. With all their goals still firmly in front of them, now is when we find out how this team intends to finish. Neb: 24--OSU: 48
Schweinfurth: If there is one thing we can count on after an Ohio State loss is a pissed off, wrecking ball of a team. Add to that Nebraska's recent history against the Bucks (exception: the Bauserbomb game) and this game could get really ugly, really fast. I'm counting on that. I do believe this team swept it's issues under the rug because there was a zero in the loss column. Don't get me wrong, all of the issues are not fixed, but with a bye week they should have at least been addressed. Now it's time to get Dobbins and Weber going this week. That emphasis should see about 150 on the ground and less than 400 yards from Haskins. The Huskers will score a couple of times, but I don't expect this to be close after halftime. Neb: 21--OSU: 49
Seeberg:  OK gotta get this off my chest.  The black jerseys, by themselves, are pretty sweet.  The all-black, however, looks mediocre at best, and a black out at high noon is idiotic.  Let's not forget, we tried the black out against Penn State before...but passed out red towels to everyone.  "How was your day?"  "Not bad...fell off the jetway again."  Hopefully our marketing/promotions people can hire outside the pool of dumb and dumber in the future.  In any event, onto the game.  I have minimal faith in our ability to stop a Martinez-led Nebraska offense.  Even as we were putting up video game numbers on them in years past (63), they were scoring with relative ease as well (38).  I expect this one to be somewhat closer and lower-scoring, but with two angry weeks to prepare it had better not be close for long.  And for the love of all things holy can we PLEASE PLEASE PRETTY F---ING PLEASE put Weber and Dobbins in the backfield simultaneously?  The decoy quarterback run has not fooled one defensive player/coach in weeks, but that would cause them to lose their collective minds.  I'll hope, but won't hold my breath.  See you in the 'Shoe.  Neb: 24--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Missouri over Florida
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Northwestern over Notre Dame
Seeberg: Cal over Washington State