Friday, October 29, 2021

Week 9: Pajama Jammy Jam

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 26-7 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 25-8 (4-4 upset)

2.) Schweinfurth 25-8 (3-5 upset)
4.) Hoying 24-9 (4-4 upset)

November has (nearly) arrived, and it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. All eyes are on the Big Ten East, where the Fantastic Four start their round robin. Georgia faces their last serious SEC competition (read about that massacre somewhere else) while a couple of SEC West teams fight to stay relevant in the case that Alabama stumbles again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Who is the bigger mirage of 2021? Honestly, I don't know.  Both teams from that state up north are flying in undefeated with monstrous expectations, but I just don't buy it.  The final scores have looked good for most of UM's games due to late TDs skewing the result, MSU hasn't beaten anyone with a pulse, and both needed a prayer to beat Nebraska (who is honestly better than their record).  MSU is leaning on their stud RB Kenneth Walker, but I think the Wolverine tandem is a touch better.  Not to mention Aidan Hutchinson wreaking havoc from the DE spot.  McNamara is a problem for the maize and blue (despite what the homers tell you), but I think the other pieces are good enough to get Harbaugh's first top 10 road win at UM.  UM: 24--MSU: 21
Hoying: Welcome to the biggest game up north since, well, since I've been born (maybe 1999 was bigger, but that was earlier in the season). It's awfully late in the season for these two to be undefeated, but that might be because they ain't played nobody, Pawwwwwwwl. When your best wins are over Wisconsin for the visitors, and, well, Michigan State has no good wins, it's going to be tough to take you seriously until you make your mark in a prove-it game like this one. That being said, Michigan has generally been making quick work of its opponents, riding the most dominant running attack I've seen from the Wolverines since Mike Hart's mouth. Hey, maybe he has a role in the turnaround of the Wolverines' ground game this year behind the two-headed monster of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. This weekend should be a good test; the Spartans aren't impossible to solve but they are a good clip better than Rutgers on run D, who gave UM fits a few weeks ago. Michigan is no slouch on defense either, and they'll need to be at their best bottling up the nation's leading rusher, Kenneth Walker III, and Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor will keep UM honest deep as well. I'm inclined go roll with the home team as their offense is far more balanced than Michigan's, but I think the Michigan defense will do just enough to...no, I can't do it. You can't be elite and one-dimensional, and Michigan's pass game is not good enough to beat the likes of the best of the BEast (aka, the tri-State area). Little Brother strikes again. UM: 24--MSU: 27
Schweinfurth: I certainly did not have Michigan and Michigan State ranked in the top ten this year. Full stop. In reality, they are ranked this high because of poll mentality and they haven't lost yet. Good job there. I'm really not sure what to make of these teams. Harbaugh has returned to his Stanford Steamroller roots, and it has served him well so far. Mel Tucker has rebuilt Sparty surprisingly quick (gotta love the transfer portal) and they seem a year ahead of schedule. I truly see this as a rock fight. These teams are just going to bludgeon each other running the ball. QB play will be the difference and Sparty has the better weapons outside and Michigan refused to throw the ball on first and second downs. It will be a good game, but I hope this game doesn't set football offenses back 20 years. UM: 14--MSU: 17
Seeberg:   Truly scrounging for the best win for either of these teams this year.  MSU's 3-TD win at 3-4 Miami?  UM winning at Wiscy by the same margin?  Toss-up, but honestly given the schedules it shouldn't be much of a surprise that both of these squads arrive undefeated.  Maybe somewhat with a new coach at the helm for Sparty, who gets this year's edition of big bro/little bro at home.  Honestly I think my colleague said it best.  Top 10 teams have to be multi-faceted and I don't trust UM to throw the ball well against a competent defense, regardless of who's under center.  Just as long as one of these teams is undefeated when we play them we will avoid the over-cannibalization of the east right?  UM: 20--MSU: 26

Mississippi Rebels @ Auburn Tigers
Draper: I honestly forgot Auburn still fielded a team.  Lane Train is good for crapping the bed here and there so the question is 'can they avoid it in Jordan-Hare? Is Auburn any good? I don't think so.  Matt Corral may still be the number one QB in the NFL mocks at this point, and I think that will be enough.  Auburn needs a year to recoup.  Miss: 38 -- Aub: 24
Hoying: Oh, hi there, Ole Miss. Welcome to the top 10, a height you hadn't even reached when Alabama launched you into the sun. And all it's taken is a couple of heartstopping victories against Arkansas and Tennessee and a blowout of the SEC's resident dead man walking. Matt Corral's been great (not as great as CJ Stroud, but still pretty good) but the defense just isn't there yet. Auburn, meanwhile, was actually able to make a dent in the nigh-impenetrable Georgia D so far this season (stay tuned to see if the Gators can do a dang thing against them). You never know if you're going to get good BoNix or bad BoNix, but the porous Ole Miss D should put him on the path to the smiling side of the scoreboard in this one. Miss: 34--Aub: 35
Schweinfurth: Ole' Miss has an explosive offense. Auburn has BoNix. Advantage: Ole' Miss. Back to the others receiving votes category Auburn! Miss: 42--Aub: 35
Seeberg:   Oh yeah, Auburn's still ranked.  Yay?  Even with this game at home it's hard to imagine the team that couldn't beat PSU beating a top 10 opponent.  Transitive property CLEARLY states Illinois>Auburn.  And if Illinois>Auburn, then Ole Miss should be able to outscore a Bo Nix led offense.  Miss: 37--Aub: 31

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Illinois Michigan THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: I'm calling my shot here (like my co-bloggers it would seem)...I think this is going to be ugly.  The Lions are in shambles after that crapfest vs. Illinois last week, and the Buckeyes appear to be morphing into their final form.  CJ Stroud has been phenomenal, but I don't think this is his week.  He'll be more than fine, but the story on Sunday will be Treyveon Henderson and the ground attack.  If Illinois is running for 350+, I'd be petrified what the Buckeye backs and O-line are going to do.  Were the Lions looking ahead? Almost assuredly.  However, Penn State (like most of the other top ranked B1G teams) are mirages on the year.  The Buckeye offense will do work, but the question is the defense.  Sean Clifford is trash....BUT he pulls games out of his butt every once in awhile.  If he's still hurt, game over man, but if not, the D-line MUST get pressure.  Also, Denzel Burke....please don't talk trash to Dotson.  Dotson is an exceptional receiver that can help the Lions pull out the return of the chuck it deep on exery play (500!) offense which would be terrible if we don't get home.  That being said, I think the D will be fine and the O won't let up.  PSU: 20--OSU: 48
Hoying: It's hard to believe that just 3 short weeks ago, the college football world stood still for a top five showdown between Iowa and Penn State. And neither team has won a game since (and not for lack of lackluster opponents). Meanwhile the Buckeyes' stock just keeps rising. The offense may be the best in program history, and the defense is...fine. Which is honestly good enough for anything left on Ohio State's schedule, let alone a team that can't score on six straight plays from the three yard line. James Franklin says Sean Clifford will be back to 100% this week. Whoopty doo. Taulia Tagovailoa was at 100% when the Buckeyes played Maryland and that did him a fat lot of good against the Silver Bullets. The real question is whether Franklin himself will be at 100% this week (100% for him at least) or whether he'll be dreaming about joining his old Rose Bowl foe, USC. I don't think Penn State is good enough to hang with the Buckeyes on a good day, and this weekend's pajama party is not shaping up to be particularly kind to the Lions. Anyone remember the Penn State back in 2013, when the Buckeyes had an offense about this good? Something like that, only with PSU WR Jahan Dotson making a play or two. On to Nebraska. PSU: 17--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: The more I watch James Franklin coach, the less impressed I am. The dude can recruit. I will admit that much, but the guy is an awful in game coach (see 9OTs of futility against an over matched opponent). It is scary to think what TreVon Henderson and the Buckeye Bulldozers are going to do to that Nittany Lion front 7. Penn State probably has the best secondary on the Buckeye schedule right now, but how do you stop Olave, Wilson, Smith-Njigba, Ruckertt, and then Henderson out of the backfield? I don't expect a lot of the explosive pass plays we have witnessed over the last three week, but this offense is going to move the ball. On defense, it seems that the Bullets are playing much better, and this is another step up. I'm not concerned about Noah Cain or anyone else running the ball here. Contain Jahan Dotson and it's all good. The only way this is close is if the defense gives up a ton of chunk plays to Dotson (see last year). PSU: 20--OSU: 42
Seeberg:   Well, the luster has certainly worn off of this game quickly.  These two teams are clearly trending in opposite directions.  The Buckeye offense is as prolific as ever, leading the nation in total offense and PPG.  Penn State set a new record for futility, needing 9 OTs to lose to woeful Illinois.  Hopefully, Day watched the Illini rushing offense absolutely torch the Nittany Cubs.  They KNEW what was coming and couldn't stop it, to the tune of 350+ rushing yards.  Henderson, Henderson, Williams, Henderson, Williams, play-action pass.  That recipe should work more than enough to distance themselves in the second half.  Look for me in D-deck under the press box, waving goodbye to James Franklin as he bolts not-so-happy valley for greener pastures.  PSU: 17--OSU: 42

Upset Special
Draper: Florida over Georgia (gross)
Hoying: Duke over Wake Forest
Schweinfurth: UNC over ND
Seeberg:  Miami over Pitt