Friday, September 22, 2023

Week 4: September is for Contenders?

Standings:

1.) Draper 10-2 (1-2 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 10-2 (0-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 9-3 (1-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 9-3 (1-2 upset)

With apologies to Jim the Wolverine Slayer, this September Saturday should do as much to separate the contenders from the pretenders as any outside of Championship Week. Three (and a half) weeks into the season have set up six undefeated Power 5 matchups of note (sorry, BYU-Kansas), and two perennial Playoff participants face possible knockout blows on their home turf before the first month is through. 

Florida State Seminoles @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: I'm the one FSU fan who is being very cautious about the hopes for the Noles (and last week almost proved me right).  The can absolutely contend for the title, but I'm not ready to crown them just yet.  Regardless, Clemson is a shell of their past selves.  Death Valley is a really tough place to play, but I'm guessing that BC was a lookahead game on steroids.  FSU will be focused and locked in to reclaim their rightful spot at the top of the ACC. Jordan Travis, the second best WR room in the country, and a stout defense will lead the Noles to the promised land.  FSU: 34--Clem: 17
Hoying: What do these two teams have in common other than a stranglehold over the Atlantic Coast Conference (coming next year: 100% more coast) since Florida State first joined? Each laid a rotten egg in a game they had no business losing. Florida State was fortunate to escape by dint of Boston College's unconscionable pileup of penalties, while Clemson wasn't so lucky as everything that could go wrong did go wrong in a blowout loss to Duke. Were the Noles just looking ahead to their best chance to reascend the ACC throne since the days of Famous Jameis? That seems more likely than the win over LSU being a fluke, and LSU just got finished torpedoing the rudderless pirate ship that is Mississippi State. But Clemson might just be bad. The sun no longer shines on the Tiger offense since the departure of Trevor Lawrence. And Florida State has been waiting too long for this. A furious rally last year fell just short, but this is the year the worm turns. FSU: 30--Clem: 20
Schweinfurth: This Florida State team looks like an absolute wagon this year. The defense looks legit and the offense actually has a pulse. Without a Trevor Lawrence or Deshawn Watson, these Clemson teams look the the Tigers of old. I'll take the 'Noles on the road. FSU: 38--Clem: 17
Seeberg: Let’s be honest. Watching the downfall of Clemson since we pasted them in the Sugar Bowl has been fun, like Miami after 2002. Dabo refuses to even acknowledge- let alone change with- the rapidly evolving college football landscape. Also similar to his outdated offense and there’s just no way this year’s FSU squad loses to the Tigers again. Enjoy, Chief. FSU: 31–Clem: 16
 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: Rivalry renewed! While Rutgers has been a nice little story this year and TTUN has been quite pedestrian thus far, the talent disparity is simply too great. Schiano was fine to go into the Big House with OSU talent and take down the Wolverines, but, even with the improvement in Piscataway, they're not there yet.  JJ McCarthy and Co. have put together 3...meh...wins thus far.  Without the preseason hype (and lack of national and internal vitriol the Buckeyes face), I haven't seen the maize and blue separating from the pack.  RU: 13--UM: 27
Hoying: You laugh, but which of these teams has put in the more impressive September so far? The Scarlet Knights dispatched Northwestern and Virginia Tech by multiple scores in games that were never close (OK, VT was close for a hot second) while Michigan was foundering around eating paste in the first half against Bowling Green last week. Looking ahead to a rivalry renewed, perhaps? Unfortunately, Rutgers is about to run into the brick wall otherwise known as the Wolverine defense, one of the few nationwide to allow even fewer points than the resurgent Silver Bullets through three games. That should give JJ or Blake the time they need to shake off the dust in this one. RSUNJ: 9--UM: 31
Schweinfurth: This game is going to be a slog fest. Rutgers has looked better this year, but they are still not a top team. Michigan has looked okay, I guess? The new clock rules will definitely keep the scoring down in this one. The Wolverines win, but closer than everyone thinks. RSUNJ: 13--UM: 17
Seeberg: Alright first things first can we PLEASE stop the JJ Heisman talk? He threw THREE picks at home against a MAC team last week. Sheesh. Anyways, UM is up to their old tricks: boring, unspectacular, but ultimately mostly dominant wins. Sounds familiar, eh Schiano? Rutgers rolls in undefeated with two power 5 wins already. Their styles are similar but sadly the Wolverines do it all better. Close first half to give UM fans pause but the Knights fade late. RUSNJ: 10—UM: 27

Colorado Buffaloes @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: He can't keep getting away with this... Colorado is immensely more talented than they were last year, but we're nowhere near the hype.  Going into Autzen is simply not what Deion wants at this point, especially without his best player.  On the other side, BoNix and the Ducks have been on fire but we haven't seen a team with a pulse on the other side.  This could be a fun match for a few minutes, but I'd be surprised if this is competitive.  Sanders will make a few plays, but not enough to keep up.  CU: 17--Ore: 37 
Hoying: Goodness, what a hype train is building out in Boulder. Cincinnati Reds legend Deion Sanders has managed to infuse Rutgers-level competency into the Pac-12's erstwhile punching bag, gutting out that gritty double overtime home win against the rare team in college football that's usually worse than the Buffaloes are. Still, 3-0 is 3-0 and now comes the chance to do some real damage against a team with something to lose. Yeah, Oregon hasn't looked great either, needing some last-minute magic to sneak by Texas Tech, but geriatric QB Bo Nix is only looking better every year, and the Ducks didn't lose any dynamic two-way players to injury last week like the Buffs did. Oregon is vulnerable to a ground attack that the Buffs just don't have the wagons to exploit. The dream season continues but gets a cold dose of reality. CU: 27--Ore: 38
Schweinfurth: The opening season ride has to end at some point for the Buffs. Travis Henry makes that team go on both sides of the ball. With him out, I'm not sure the Buffs have the fire power to hang with the Ducks. Oregon has looked every part of a Pac-12 contender so far. This one feels like a blowout.  CU: 17--Ore: 45
Seeberg: Is…is Colorado really legit? TCU didn’t answer that question but a trip to Phil Knight world might. Bo Nix is playing in his 349th college game (approximately) and despite an odd squeaker against an overrated Texas Tech squad, he’s looked darn good since midway through last season. The Buffs do have talent and seem remarkably galvanized for a roster made up almost exclusively of transfers, but duck isn’t on the menu this week. Oregon pulls away late in a fun one. CU: 26—Ore: 41

Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Is this the end for the Tide? Can Ole Miss and Kiffikins actually become the master? Well, maybe.  Bama has some real issues at the quarterback position, but they are still LOADED at others.  Ole Miss has playmakers, but they'll need to make it a track meet.  Winning a close game @Tulane isn't good enough to prepare them for Saban and the monsters on the other side. Milroe is back in the driver's seat, but it's more of a 'well, you're the only option' option.  Milroe can be a competent QB and it would be just like a Saban led team to rise from the ashes just when they were expected to be down and out. This feels like one of those games when the rumors of the Tide's demise are greatly exaggerated. Miss: 27--Bama: 37
Hoying: Folks, the Tide are in t r o u b l e. After getting embarrassed on their home field against Texas, Alabama hit the panic button in their next game and started former ineffective Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner in an effort to jump start their offense. The result? 3 points at half on 2.4 yards per attempt from the leprechaun carpetbagger. The silver lining was the play of the steel-trap Tide defense, which kept the Bulls out of the end zone and allowed Bama to end up outgaining South Florida on the day. But that's not going to be good enough for their next opponent. If you want to beat Ole Miss, you had better score, and the Rebels had Saban's boys on the ropes last year even with Bryce Young at quarterback and Jahmyr Gibbs scurrying all over the field. The SEC West this year doesn't look to be the murderer's row that we've been used to these past couple decades, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I don't see Alabama losing to Georgia at any point this year, and this week will be a big reason why. The list of former assistants getting one over on Old Nick grows a little longer as Lane finally scores one against his old boss. Miss: 27--Bama: 20
Schweinfurth: Bama just doesn't look right. This whole QB fiasco is causing so many issues. Lane started running his mouth early and that may not have been the best choice. Bama isn't quite what we're used to, but they're gonna play pissed off. Miss: 21--Bama: 24
Seeberg: Another intriguing matchup. I love these types of games: strength against strength, weakness against weakness. Bama D against Lane’s O is the fun part. Bama O against Ole Miss D? Ugly, but still it’s tough to tell which unit will find enough footing to help their team. The Tide are ripe for the picking and the SEC wants to take their shots. Saban is at home, and desperate, and even though the Rebs have the horses to win it, I expect a focused Crimson Tide for at least this week before crashing back to earth once or twice more this year. Tide survive. Miss: 23—Bama: 24

California, Los Angeles Bruins @ Utah Utes
Draper: Not really sure what to do with this game.  Utah is pretty lucky to be 3-0 right now after squeaking out a road win at a bad Baylor team, but UCLA has played a cake schedule thus far.  Utah gets the benefit of the doubt in most games after their success of late, but it does seem to be nearing the end.  They've survived without Rising thus far, but there is a chance he'll return this week.  Rice Eccles is a tough place to play (especially with the preseason cupcakes the Bruins have faced) so, even with the struggles of the Utes, I'll lean on Whittingham to make it happen.  UCLA: 23--Utah: 30
Hoying: For all the press that USC and Oregon have received of late in the Pac-12, neither of those teams has been the conference's standard-bearer of late. That would be the Big 12-bound Utah Utes, who have appeared in the last 5 non-COVID Pac-12 title games and won the last two. The Utes got off to a hot start this season with a big win over Florida in SLC, and the future looks even brighter with two-time Rose Bowl runner-up QB Cam Rising set to make his first 2023 appearance this Saturday. He wasn't good enough to topple the Bruins last season, but DTR has finally moved on to greener pastures, as has star RB Zach Charbonnet. The Bruins have been still able put some points up in their first three wins over cupcake city & friends, but the Utes at home are a mountain not so easily moved. UCLA: 27--Utah: 34
Schweinfurth: I don't really know much about UCLA this year, so I guess they're okay. Here's the rub, if Cam Rising plays, Utah should win decently easy. If not, UCLA will win close one. I'm gonna go on the assumption Rising plays. UCLA: 24--Utah: 38
Seeberg: Is UCLA for real? Is Cam Rising near 100% less than 10 months after tearing his ACL New Years’ Day? More questions that may be answered after this crazy Saturday slate. The Bruins replaced two huge contributors on offense and have still been fairly prolific on that side of the ball, though admittedly against lousy opponents so far. The Utes bullied Florida and escaped Baylor with backups to the backups playing. I have to believe even an 85% Cam is better than Bryson or Nate Johnson, and the Utah defense should harass a freshman QB enough to stay undefeated at home. Utes late. UCLA: 20—Utah: 31

Oregon State Beavers @ Washington State Cougars
Draper: The Pac-2 championship in week 4? I'm assuming this will be on FS32! While they're both undefeated, I have no idea about either of these teams other than DJ Ukulele is on the side of the Beavs,  and he has looked like the removal of the Dabo stench may have reinvigorated his career.  Will this be a close enjoyable game? That's for the fan to decide.  OrSt: 27--WSU: 17
Hoying: I don't know why everyone is getting so weepy over this game. You should get a chance to see it again 8 or 9 times next year in the Pac-2 while these teams patiently wait for a G5 conference to scoop them up. This iteration is a classic offense-vs-defense struggle. The Beavers have bottled up all three of their (admittedly crappy) opponents so far while Wazzu continues to honor Mike Leach's legacy by throwing all over their foes. Interestingly it was the Cougar defense that made the difference against Wisconsin, in the biggest win by either team so far this year, forcing three turnovers and scoring on a fumble recovery. That luck isn't likely to replicate, and the Cougar offense from that game won't make a dent in this year's Beaver dam. Oregon State continues the fight to keep the Pac-12 ruled by a Pac-12 faithful. OrSt: 23--WSU: 10
Schweinfurth: So it's cool this is the Pac -2 championship game in September. Yes, both teams are undefeated, but if they play after 10, will anyone see it? I know nothing about either of these teams. As a shot in the dark, I'll take Oregon State.  OrSt: 33--WSU: 13
Seeberg: With the inevitable collapse of the PAC-howevermany, this game is suddenly a much bigger deal than usual.  The last two holdouts square off and both are undefeated AND ranked?  Yes you read that right.  The Beavers looked solid coming into the season and the Cougars' reputation this year is built largely on a 9-point win against whatever offense Wisconsin is trying to field.  It really is remarkable to have such a separation Saturday so early in the season!  Cougars fight at home, but come back to earth at the hands of an excellent OSU defense (hint hint, wink wink).  OrSt: 27:--WSU: 16

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The Drive to 325 was boosted last week but walking into a White Out in Happy Valley is not the solution.  The first real test for Penn State's offense will give us some information for the National Title hopes, but I don't see a super competitive game.  Can Cade McNamara keep the Hawkeyes close? I don't think so.  Iowa: 10--PSU: 23   
Hoying: Speaking of Beavers, the Hawkeyes visit Beaver Stadium with a mind to continue their two-game winning streak over the Lions. Penn State was everyone's darling dark horse to take the Big Ten East (and thus the Big Ten itself by default) this season after failures to launch against the Big Two over the last half-decade or so. And they've mostly looked the part although Illinois had to spill the ball all over the field last week in order for PSU to pull away. Meanwhile, Iowa is same old Iowa, as humble and Midwestern an institution as Culver's or 15-minute goodbyes. Don't expect them to score more than 20 points (if they're lucky), but unlike against Iowa State, it won't be enough to overcome a raucous white-out crowd. Drew Allar officially hits the big time and picks up his first ranked win. Iowa: 13--PSU: 31
Schweinfurth: I don’t think either of these two teams are elite. Iowa still has issues moving the ball. Penn State looks like they are still learning how to use Drew Aller. I honestly think this is going to be a relatively low scoring game. Both teams have questions on offense and decent defenses. Penn State wins because they actually have competency on the coaching staff. Iowa: 10—PSU: 17
Seeberg: Occasionally, PFF will put up a stat that makes me pause for a moment or two.  Like this one.  Best QBR in the country under pressure so far this year?  Drew Allar.  The freshman(ish) may well be legit, and he gets to experience his first white-out as a starter for the home team.  Iowa, meanwhile, boasts their most prolific offense in years averaging a whopping (checks notes) 28.3 ppg!  Those points weren't scored on the road, in a white out, against a PSU team with an elite secondary and solid pass rush, however.  The Hawkeyes get a moral victory by making it to double digits, but that's about it.  Iowa: 10--PSU: 27

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The game of the year pits the 2 largest fanbases in the country against each other.  The Buckeyes (McCord in particular) finally got out of their own way an had a smooth offensive game plan against the Hilltoppers, but the Irish are another issue.  Everyone is hyping the Freeman > Day narrative, but I don't see it.  Marcus certainly has the juice of a young up and comer, but Day has lost 6 games in 5 years...and we're told he's a bum.  The worries for the Buckeyes center around a) the offensive line (which played much better last week), b) the defensive line (which needs to live up to the billing), and c) the fact that the QB on the other side is pretty good (and has been in the league since the Reagan administration).  The worries for ND are....everything.  They are outmatched at literally every position except QB (and it's not a blow out there).  I'm hoping for a Peach Bowl Coach Day in which he lays it all out there and goes for broke.  We know God smiles down on South Bend, but he'll be wearing Scarlet and Gray.  OSU: 30--ND: 17 
Hoying: Welcome to year 5 of the Ryan Day era, and his first road game against an elite nonconference opponent. This isn't a cause for concern in and of itself -- Ohio State went into a much tougher environment in State College last year and walked out with a W -- but this isn't the best time to be facing a team with Notre Dame's experience. Last year I wrote that opening the season with this game favored the Buckeyes as we were the known entity going into last season, but this year I'm not sure what to make of this team. We've seen some shades of problems that have plagued this team in the post-plague era, like the inability for the O-line to impose their will in short-yardage situations and the struggle to pressure the QB. Add this to what may be the slowest start for a QB in the Day era (not a fair comparison at all) and the cracks in the fortress may be starting to show. Fortunately, all of these problems seemed to disappear in last week's dismantling of Western Kentucky, but the Green Domers aren't even close to being in the same league as the Hilltoppers (or any league). The Irish have fixed their most glaring issue from last season, namely, having no quarterback (how'd he work out for you last week, Tide?), and feature formidable lines on both sides of the ball and an experienced rushing attack. The pieces in play, considered one by one, still favor the Buckeyes, but this one will come down to which team can be greater than the sum of its parts. The Irish have experience at QB and a better offensive line, but the Buckeyes have the better coaching staff and the healthy reserves to wear down Notre Dame on both sides of the ball. If McCord has time to make his reads and let it rip when he can (no strip sacks s'il vous plait), Ohio State should hit enough big plays, and contain the fearsome Irish just enough, to claim their 6th straight win in the series. OSU: 27--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Let me first say that I am so happy this game wasn’t the first game of the year. I truly believe the Irish would have wrecked this Ohio State team a few weeks ago. The WKU game was the best thing that could have happened for Kyle McCord. He threw a couple of bombs and looked much more comfortable throwing the intermediate passes. The defense isn’t giving up the big plays…yet. This will be the first real test to see if they give up the back breaking big plays we have seen the last few years. I do not see a scenario where Notre Dame blows the Bucks out. If the Irish win, it will be close. I expect a great game and am excited to watch these two powerhouses go at it. Go Bucks. OSU: 27—ND: 24
Seeberg: It is finally here! The scheduling gods were kind to the Buckeyes this season as it seems we needed all three weeks to get right before our marquee non-conference matchup. Notre Dame, meanwhile, hit the ground running this season with an experienced transfer QB in Sam Hartman who traded one golden helmet for a slightly more iconic one last offseason. His opponent? The highest graded defense this season according to PFF (I told you they have some eyebrow-raising stats!) I believe if Hartman had anything approximating the skill talent of the scarlet and gray this game would not go well. And I STILL believe the DEs need to get home more frequently. But the offense appears sorted out with a permanent helmsman, and year two of the Jim Knowles defense has paid dividends so far. Buckeyes continue their recent run against the Irish. OSU: 28—ND: 20

Upset Special
Draper: Cincinnati over Oklahoma
Hoying: California over Washington
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Texas
Seeberg: Arkansas over LSU