Conference Champions
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: GT, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: Clemson, C: Pitt, Champ: Clemson
Schweinfurth: A: Clemson, C: GT , Champ: Clemson
Seeberg: A: Clemson , C: GT , Champ: GT
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: Ohio St., W: Wisc, Champ: Ohio St.
Hoying: E: Ohio St., W: Wisconsin, Champ: Ohio St.
Schweinfurth: E: Ohio St, W: Nebraska, Champ: Ohio St.
Seeberg: E: Ohio St. , W: Wisconsin , Champ: Ohio St.
Big 12
Draper: TCU
Hoying: TCU
Schweinfurth: TCU
Seeberg: TCU
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: USC, Champ: USC
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: Arizona, Champ: Arizona
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: USC , Champ: USC
Seeberg: N: Oregon S: USC , Champ: USC
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: Georgia, W: Alabama, Champ: Alabama
Hoying: E: Missouri, W: Alabama, Champ: Alabama
Schweinfurth: E: Georgia, W: Alabama , Champ: Alabama
Seeberg: E: Georgia , W: Auburn , Champ: Auburn
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: Ohio St., Alabama, TCU, USC
Hoying: Ohio St., Alabama, TCU, Arizona
Schweinfurth: Ohio St., Alabama, USC, TCU
Seeberg: TCU, Ohio St., Auburn, USC
Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Ezekiel Elliott
2) Trevone Boykin
3) Nick Chubb
Dark Horse: Everett Golson
Hoying
1) Trevone Boykin
2) JT Barrett
3) Ezekiel Elliott
Dark Horse: Connor Cook
Schweinfurth
1) Ezekiel Elliot
2) Nick Chubb
3) Trevone Boykin
Dark Horse: Cody Kessler
Seeberg
1) Ezekiel Elliott
2) Cody Kessler
3) Trevone Boykin
Dark Horse: Samaje Perine
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 02, 2015
Sunday, January 18, 2015
The Three-Body Problem: Ohio State's QB Dilemma
At this point in 2014, Buckeye Nation was frustrated after another tough loss, during which Braxton came up just short for the second straight game. But with Kenny Guiton graduating, it seemed like Ohio State's QB situation was clear: Braxton would make another run at the Heisman and the inaugural College Football Playoff his senior year, and then the job would go to the untested Cardale "They Don't Even Let Me Throw in Garbage Time" Jones.
Fast forward to now, where presumptive 3rd string QB Cardale "I Ain't Come to Play in College Stadiums" Jones, fresh off a national championship, announces that he's come to play school for at least one more year. The guy he replaced, JT Barrett, finished 5th in the Heisman voting after starting for the majority of his freshman year. And the smoke signals coming from Braxton's camp seem to point to his return as well. With such an embarrassment of riches at QB, to whom should Urban turn on Labor Day in Blacksburg?
Question 1: Who Starts for the Buckeyes in 2015, and Who's #2?
Draper: I'm going to focus on who I would start. Trying to predict Urban is incredibly hard because of his deep love for Braxton. In my mind, the edge goes to JT Barrett. I'm an unabashed fan of the skill set of JT who I think is the best quarterback on the roster. But herein lies the problem: Does the choice go to:
a) The best QB/passer? JT
b) The best athlete? Braxton
c) The best NFL body with (arguably) the highest ceiling? Cardale
Some say this is a great problem to have, and I'd prefer this to having no QBs, but it is called a problem for a reason. I lean to JT in the front if he's healthy with Cardale nipping at his heels. I don't think Braxton has the arm ability to succeed at the next level. He has more explosive play ability but the best QBs in any league must be competent in the pocket. Cardale shined against some tough defenses, but let's be honest with ourselves, Zeke was the key. Don't take everything away from Mr. Jones, but the 12-gauge chucked it deep and it worked. I saw a few nice throws that were far better than anything I'd seen in the short history of Cardale Jones, but not enough to hand the keys to the car. Cardale finished the run, but there is NO WAY we are there without JT. Give me the best passer with the best football mind. Give me JT Barrett.
Hoying: Urban loves Braxton. Let's not forget that in Evanston in 2013, after Kenny G had proved in September that he could be the man to lead Ohio State, and Braxton had already turned it over 3 times to Northwestern, Urban stuck with his guy to pull out the win. Braxton, not Hyde, got the ball on 4th-and-1 against Michigan State. And Braxton, even though obviously hurt, was the man Urban trusted to produce some endgame magic during the Orange Bowl collapse. This season, even after JT produced record-breaking numbers against Cincinnati, Urban reiterated that Braxton would be the man in 2015. How does Urban sit a 2-year Heisman contender and 2-time B1G Offensive POY?
Then Barrett set the single-season touchdown record, surpassing some guy named TROY SMITH who had a pretty good career at OSU. He was the All-B1G QB and finished 5th in the Heisman voting despite missing the last game and a half of the season due to injury. How does Urban sit the guy who willed this team to road wins against Penn State and Michigan State and shredded the record books along the way?
Cardale's record speaks for itself. 3 games against 3 of the top defenses in the country, 3 huge wins. Zero INTs that were his fault (though the fumbles against Oregon were horrendous). How does Urban sit the champ?
From where I'm sitting, I can't see a reason for Urban to stick with Braxton anymore. JT throws a prettier ball and keeps his eyes downfield while buying time in or out of the pocket. As for the ground game, it seemed like every single down this year, we had to listen to announcers say "JT isn't the running threat that Braxton Miller is, but he can still make some things happen." Poppycock. In 2012, Braxton rushed for 1271 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 13 TDs. This year, JT rushed for 938 yards, 5.5 YPC, and 11 TDs. JT can run as much as Braxton does, and while he doesn't quite have Braxton's escapability, he has the vision to avoid big hits and can actually absorb a couple without shattering (unless a lineman sits on his ankle). Furthermore, the guy DOES NOT misread the zone read. He runs Braxton's offense better than Braxton does, and he did it as a freshman. Anyone remember Braxton as a freshman?
That just leaves Cardale. JT was stunning this season, but he didn't face Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon. JT's first 3 starts were an uneven struggle against an OK Navy defense, a disaster against Virginia Tech (behind an awful O-line), and...pick your score against Kent State. Cardale's resume was impressive, but can we really say any of those victories was because of Cardale's efforts? His TD passes set the tone against Wisconsin, but the defense pitched a shutout, the receivers bailed him out on a couple of throws, and Zeke was crushing their spirits by the end. The Sugar Bowl was his shining moment, with 12 Gauge picking up 3rd and long after 3rd and long and rolling the Tide's LBs beneath his gargantuan frame. And the National Championship clearly belonged to Zeke and the Silver Bullets, though Cardale didn't stand in their way. Who was more impressive: JT against Michigan State or Cardale against Alabama? Hard to say.
I think the tiebreaker lies in Urban's system. Urban loves the zone read, and as previously mentioned, JT runs it perfectly. Cardale is an NFL-type QB, and he'll be playing on Sunday's, but Urban's not going to completely remake his offense around one of his QB options, just to switch it back after Cardale leaves next year. Depending on how fast the offense learns and how quickly the new starters jell together in the offseason, we may see a two QB system next year, just to give opposing defenses even more fits. BUT, during their first drive down the field, the men of the scarlet and gray will be led by...
1. JT Barrett, backed up by
2. Cardale Jones.
3. Braxton Miller...will be gone
Seeberg: First off, I would like to think that this will be a non-issue. I believe newly minted offensive coordinator Ed Warinner and his co-coordinator Tim Beck should spend months devising a passing version of the triple option in which all three are in the backfield simultaneously. It would be literally indefensible. Short of that? As absurd as this statement would have been just two months ago, 12-Gauge may have the inside track at the moment. He is still the least proven of the three and his numbers are actually not as good in terms of QBR as either Braxton or J.T. That said, he went up against three top 15 teams (which accounts for his lower QBR rating) and still beat them all. Further, Miller and J.T. will both still be rehabbing during spring ball which means Cardale gets another month of first-team reps to continue to get acclimated and improve.
Assuming all three are in the scarlet and gray, healthy for summer ball and it is a truly "open" competition, I have to give the edge to Cardale. My gut, however, tells me that Urban has a soft spot for Braxton and the job will still be his come opening day if he is healthy and performs well enough during the summer. In either case, I believe the opposite guy will be #2 (Braxton under Cardale or vice versa). J.T. Barrett and his B1G record for TDs responsible for in a season? Third-stringer. I know it's cliche, but it really is a pretty nice problem to have.
Question 2: What Should Braxton Miller Do?
Draper: I didn't mention my thoughts above, but the second Cardale said he was returning to play school, I tweeted #byeBraxton. There's only one reason to stay and that is that his style of football matches Urban's philosophy to a T. Even though OSU is the best fit for Braxton, I don't think the best fit for OSU is Braxton. If he transfers, he can take over the reins of another program in which he can flourish rather than being mired in a QB battle. He has served the university well and should be lauded for what he has done, but JT and Cardale seem to have a better future in college and the pros in my opinion. The injury issue with Braxton cannot be overlooked with the glut of talent. You need to have faith that your guy can stand in and take a hit. I don't think he can do that. Earlier in the season, there was chatter about him taking over the RB duties...but no way that's happening with Zeke exploding on the scene. I wish him well, but I think he'd be best served taking his talents elsewhere. FSU is a possibility, but I don't know if he fits Jimbo's pro style system. It would be good for him to refine his skills in an attempt to make the NFL but would the Noles want him? Oregon is a nice fit, but little room to grow. To step into a ready made position, Houston seems like a perfect fit with Tom Herman, but clearly, the chance for a title is essentially zero. I'm guessing he goes to Eugene or Tallahassee...who knows? Maybe we'll meet again.
Hoying: As I said above, I don't see a compelling reason for Urban to start Braxton over JT Barrett. One could make a case for him at #2 ahead of Cardale, but should a QB of Braxton's caliber be content to ride the pine his senior season? No. Braxton's still not NFL ready (and he missed the deadline), so he needs to transfer. He won't find a program that's a better fit than Urban's spread, but he may be able to develop some new skills that can impress NFL scouts and maybe even chase a title along the way. Oregon would be a good option if he doesn't want to be touched by opposing defenses. Baylor might be a good choice if he really wants to develop his passing game (though I don't think it's really his style). Anyone who saw Sean Maguire stumble his way to a victory against Clemson knows that FSU would love a good QB to replace Jameis Winston, and playing under the coaches who trained the overall #1 draft pick is very tempting. But FSU doesn't really run their QBs either. Perhaps Auburn could use a replacement for Nick Marshall. Perhaps (vomit) Nebraska needs a better version of Tommy Armstrong to start Mike Riley's tenure with a bang. Wisconsin (projectile vomit) is sitting on zero QBs, as always. The possibilities are endless for Braxton if he leaves, very limited if he returns to Columbus.
Seeberg: The rumors swirling around Braxton Miller's final campaign started well before this season was in the books and they are likely to intensify in the coming weeks. More often than not, however, the signs have pointed to him returning to Columbus. Why, you may ask? It can be pretty successfully argued that both J.T. and Cardale are better passers than Braxton. All three have capable arms, but J.T. seems to be a bit more accurate on short-to-intermediate throws while Cardale and his I-can-throw-it-through-the-uprights-from-midfield-while-kneeling arm has phenomenal touch on the deep passes, a skill Braxton has yet to master as he often overshoots them. Despite these observations, Braxton is the incumbent, and, I believe, the favorite of the head man, Saint Urban of Ashtabula. If he is to return to the 614, it is not without reason as he would be virtually guaranteed the starting job at FSU or Oregon a la Russell Wilson being borrowed by Wiscy for one season. Publicly, an open competition has been spoken of, but something tells me Braxton has the inside track, and if that's the case, he should return to the 'Shoe.
Fast forward to now, where presumptive 3rd string QB Cardale "I Ain't Come to Play in College Stadiums" Jones, fresh off a national championship, announces that he's come to play school for at least one more year. The guy he replaced, JT Barrett, finished 5th in the Heisman voting after starting for the majority of his freshman year. And the smoke signals coming from Braxton's camp seem to point to his return as well. With such an embarrassment of riches at QB, to whom should Urban turn on Labor Day in Blacksburg?
Question 1: Who Starts for the Buckeyes in 2015, and Who's #2?
Draper: I'm going to focus on who I would start. Trying to predict Urban is incredibly hard because of his deep love for Braxton. In my mind, the edge goes to JT Barrett. I'm an unabashed fan of the skill set of JT who I think is the best quarterback on the roster. But herein lies the problem: Does the choice go to:
a) The best QB/passer? JT
b) The best athlete? Braxton
c) The best NFL body with (arguably) the highest ceiling? Cardale
Some say this is a great problem to have, and I'd prefer this to having no QBs, but it is called a problem for a reason. I lean to JT in the front if he's healthy with Cardale nipping at his heels. I don't think Braxton has the arm ability to succeed at the next level. He has more explosive play ability but the best QBs in any league must be competent in the pocket. Cardale shined against some tough defenses, but let's be honest with ourselves, Zeke was the key. Don't take everything away from Mr. Jones, but the 12-gauge chucked it deep and it worked. I saw a few nice throws that were far better than anything I'd seen in the short history of Cardale Jones, but not enough to hand the keys to the car. Cardale finished the run, but there is NO WAY we are there without JT. Give me the best passer with the best football mind. Give me JT Barrett.
Hoying: Urban loves Braxton. Let's not forget that in Evanston in 2013, after Kenny G had proved in September that he could be the man to lead Ohio State, and Braxton had already turned it over 3 times to Northwestern, Urban stuck with his guy to pull out the win. Braxton, not Hyde, got the ball on 4th-and-1 against Michigan State. And Braxton, even though obviously hurt, was the man Urban trusted to produce some endgame magic during the Orange Bowl collapse. This season, even after JT produced record-breaking numbers against Cincinnati, Urban reiterated that Braxton would be the man in 2015. How does Urban sit a 2-year Heisman contender and 2-time B1G Offensive POY?
Then Barrett set the single-season touchdown record, surpassing some guy named TROY SMITH who had a pretty good career at OSU. He was the All-B1G QB and finished 5th in the Heisman voting despite missing the last game and a half of the season due to injury. How does Urban sit the guy who willed this team to road wins against Penn State and Michigan State and shredded the record books along the way?
Cardale's record speaks for itself. 3 games against 3 of the top defenses in the country, 3 huge wins. Zero INTs that were his fault (though the fumbles against Oregon were horrendous). How does Urban sit the champ?
From where I'm sitting, I can't see a reason for Urban to stick with Braxton anymore. JT throws a prettier ball and keeps his eyes downfield while buying time in or out of the pocket. As for the ground game, it seemed like every single down this year, we had to listen to announcers say "JT isn't the running threat that Braxton Miller is, but he can still make some things happen." Poppycock. In 2012, Braxton rushed for 1271 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 13 TDs. This year, JT rushed for 938 yards, 5.5 YPC, and 11 TDs. JT can run as much as Braxton does, and while he doesn't quite have Braxton's escapability, he has the vision to avoid big hits and can actually absorb a couple without shattering (unless a lineman sits on his ankle). Furthermore, the guy DOES NOT misread the zone read. He runs Braxton's offense better than Braxton does, and he did it as a freshman. Anyone remember Braxton as a freshman?
That just leaves Cardale. JT was stunning this season, but he didn't face Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon. JT's first 3 starts were an uneven struggle against an OK Navy defense, a disaster against Virginia Tech (behind an awful O-line), and...pick your score against Kent State. Cardale's resume was impressive, but can we really say any of those victories was because of Cardale's efforts? His TD passes set the tone against Wisconsin, but the defense pitched a shutout, the receivers bailed him out on a couple of throws, and Zeke was crushing their spirits by the end. The Sugar Bowl was his shining moment, with 12 Gauge picking up 3rd and long after 3rd and long and rolling the Tide's LBs beneath his gargantuan frame. And the National Championship clearly belonged to Zeke and the Silver Bullets, though Cardale didn't stand in their way. Who was more impressive: JT against Michigan State or Cardale against Alabama? Hard to say.
I think the tiebreaker lies in Urban's system. Urban loves the zone read, and as previously mentioned, JT runs it perfectly. Cardale is an NFL-type QB, and he'll be playing on Sunday's, but Urban's not going to completely remake his offense around one of his QB options, just to switch it back after Cardale leaves next year. Depending on how fast the offense learns and how quickly the new starters jell together in the offseason, we may see a two QB system next year, just to give opposing defenses even more fits. BUT, during their first drive down the field, the men of the scarlet and gray will be led by...
1. JT Barrett, backed up by
2. Cardale Jones.
3. Braxton Miller...will be gone
Seeberg: First off, I would like to think that this will be a non-issue. I believe newly minted offensive coordinator Ed Warinner and his co-coordinator Tim Beck should spend months devising a passing version of the triple option in which all three are in the backfield simultaneously. It would be literally indefensible. Short of that? As absurd as this statement would have been just two months ago, 12-Gauge may have the inside track at the moment. He is still the least proven of the three and his numbers are actually not as good in terms of QBR as either Braxton or J.T. That said, he went up against three top 15 teams (which accounts for his lower QBR rating) and still beat them all. Further, Miller and J.T. will both still be rehabbing during spring ball which means Cardale gets another month of first-team reps to continue to get acclimated and improve.
Assuming all three are in the scarlet and gray, healthy for summer ball and it is a truly "open" competition, I have to give the edge to Cardale. My gut, however, tells me that Urban has a soft spot for Braxton and the job will still be his come opening day if he is healthy and performs well enough during the summer. In either case, I believe the opposite guy will be #2 (Braxton under Cardale or vice versa). J.T. Barrett and his B1G record for TDs responsible for in a season? Third-stringer. I know it's cliche, but it really is a pretty nice problem to have.
Question 2: What Should Braxton Miller Do?
Draper: I didn't mention my thoughts above, but the second Cardale said he was returning to play school, I tweeted #byeBraxton. There's only one reason to stay and that is that his style of football matches Urban's philosophy to a T. Even though OSU is the best fit for Braxton, I don't think the best fit for OSU is Braxton. If he transfers, he can take over the reins of another program in which he can flourish rather than being mired in a QB battle. He has served the university well and should be lauded for what he has done, but JT and Cardale seem to have a better future in college and the pros in my opinion. The injury issue with Braxton cannot be overlooked with the glut of talent. You need to have faith that your guy can stand in and take a hit. I don't think he can do that. Earlier in the season, there was chatter about him taking over the RB duties...but no way that's happening with Zeke exploding on the scene. I wish him well, but I think he'd be best served taking his talents elsewhere. FSU is a possibility, but I don't know if he fits Jimbo's pro style system. It would be good for him to refine his skills in an attempt to make the NFL but would the Noles want him? Oregon is a nice fit, but little room to grow. To step into a ready made position, Houston seems like a perfect fit with Tom Herman, but clearly, the chance for a title is essentially zero. I'm guessing he goes to Eugene or Tallahassee...who knows? Maybe we'll meet again.
Hoying: As I said above, I don't see a compelling reason for Urban to start Braxton over JT Barrett. One could make a case for him at #2 ahead of Cardale, but should a QB of Braxton's caliber be content to ride the pine his senior season? No. Braxton's still not NFL ready (and he missed the deadline), so he needs to transfer. He won't find a program that's a better fit than Urban's spread, but he may be able to develop some new skills that can impress NFL scouts and maybe even chase a title along the way. Oregon would be a good option if he doesn't want to be touched by opposing defenses. Baylor might be a good choice if he really wants to develop his passing game (though I don't think it's really his style). Anyone who saw Sean Maguire stumble his way to a victory against Clemson knows that FSU would love a good QB to replace Jameis Winston, and playing under the coaches who trained the overall #1 draft pick is very tempting. But FSU doesn't really run their QBs either. Perhaps Auburn could use a replacement for Nick Marshall. Perhaps (vomit) Nebraska needs a better version of Tommy Armstrong to start Mike Riley's tenure with a bang. Wisconsin (projectile vomit) is sitting on zero QBs, as always. The possibilities are endless for Braxton if he leaves, very limited if he returns to Columbus.
Seeberg: The rumors swirling around Braxton Miller's final campaign started well before this season was in the books and they are likely to intensify in the coming weeks. More often than not, however, the signs have pointed to him returning to Columbus. Why, you may ask? It can be pretty successfully argued that both J.T. and Cardale are better passers than Braxton. All three have capable arms, but J.T. seems to be a bit more accurate on short-to-intermediate throws while Cardale and his I-can-throw-it-through-the-uprights-from-midfield-while-kneeling arm has phenomenal touch on the deep passes, a skill Braxton has yet to master as he often overshoots them. Despite these observations, Braxton is the incumbent, and, I believe, the favorite of the head man, Saint Urban of Ashtabula. If he is to return to the 614, it is not without reason as he would be virtually guaranteed the starting job at FSU or Oregon a la Russell Wilson being borrowed by Wiscy for one season. Publicly, an open competition has been spoken of, but something tells me Braxton has the inside track, and if that's the case, he should return to the 'Shoe.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
10 Reasons Why Ohio State Beats Oregon
1. Unlimited...POWER!
The Braxton Miller/Carlos Hyde combo might have been the best Buckeye rush attack since Cornelius Green and Archie Griffin. However, even after losing them both, the OSU rush attack hasn't suffered, racking up over 260 yards per game. And they've done it against such sledgehammer fronts as:
#1 Michigan State (88 YPG)
#3 Penn State (100 YPG)
#4 Alabama (102 YPG)
#15 Michigan (118 YPG)
#23 Wisconsin (126 YPG)
This isn't all on Jalin Marshall end-around sweeps, either. Ezekiel Elliott has the power to blow through the line and the speed to put defenders behind him once he dashes into the secondary. And he's been at his best since JT Barrett went down, going for 220 against Wisconsin and 230 against Alabama. Meanwhile, Cardale Jones decided to jump-start Ohio State's fading second quarter offense by seeking out Alabama linebackers to run over, sending a few of them off the field with injuries. Oregon's run defense isn't terrible (156 YPG, #51 in D1-A), but does anyone expect those spindly LBs and DBs to be a physical match for the bash brothers?
2. Upset City
Shortly after the conclusion of the Sugar Bowl, Vegas opened the championship game betting, giving 7 points to the Buckeyes. The line has come down to about -5 Oregon by this point, but seeing as how the favorite hasn't flipped, Duck fans should be nervous. Why? Since Urban Meyer came to Ohio State, his Buckeyes have been underdogs 5 times: this year against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Alabama; and two years ago against Michigan State and Wisconsin (again). None of those predicted Buckeye losses came to fruition. No one motivates his team like Urban does, and this is just the extra fuel on the fire Oregon doesn't need.
3. Addition and Subtraction
In East Lansing, during what was then the climax of the Buckeye season, Dontre Wilson broke his foot. It didn't stop him from scoring a terrific touchdown, but the do-it-all wunderkind hasn't gained a yard for the Bucks since. Jalin Marshall has been a more than adequate replacement, single-handedly delivering the Buckeyes from a potentially devastating home loss against Indiana and playing a crucial role in extending several drives against Alabama. But now, Oregon will have to prepare for BOTH of them, including the possibility that both could see the field at the same time. On the other sideline, Oregon's WR corps is becoming more depleted by the day. Their leading Rose Bowl receiver, Darren Carrington, was gonna play, but then he got high; and their leading TD receiver on the season, Devon Allen, was injured early in the Rose Bowl and won't see the field. The Ducks are no stranger to injury on the season, but they can ill afford the loss of key personnel against their toughest opponent on the year.
4. Tradition
Nothing excites the college football fan base like a matchup of two of the sport's blue bloods pitting centuries of tradition against each other. This...is not one of those games. Ohio State is one of 8 programs with with a 70+ winning percentage and has won 7 national championships dating from WWII to the BCS era. Oregon has won less than 60% of its games and has NO national titles to its name. The Ducks have only sniffed a championship once in their 120 year history, falling to Auburn on a last second field goal in 2011. The Ducks run a gimmick offense and wear gimmick uniforms; particularly egregious are their upcoming abominations that feature NEITHER of their school colors. Ohio State is Script Ohio, Gold Pants, an ancient concrete stadium that looks like the Roman Colosseum, and the 10-Year-War. Oregon is...brought to you by Phil Knight. Of course, the most important tradition is winning, and the Ducks have put together 7 consecutive 10+ win seasons, but Ohio State has been in the title hunt year after year after year, and they've shown they can handle success on the highest level. Oh, and these teams have met often enough to establish a tradition of their own: once in Eugene, five times in Columbus, and twice in the Rose Bowl. Eight games, eight Buckeye victories.
5. Flip the Field
In the unthinkable event that one of these offenses is actually forced into fourth down and leaves the field, who has the advantage? Both teams have freshman placekickers, and while Neurnberger has been a bit inconsistent, the Ducks haven't even attempted a field goal past 42 yards. What if the offense stalls on its own side of the field? Oregon P Ian Wheeler is averaging 39 yards/punt, placing 10/41 punts inside the 20, but Ohio State's Cameron Johnston averages 45 yards, while still putting 24/73 punts inside the 20, including a few that appeared to scrape the goal line paint and jump backwards. If, somehow, the projected shootout turns out to be a Tresselesque defensive struggle, you can bet The Vest will be smiling at the booming punts flipping the field for the Scarlet and Gray.
6. Weathering the Storm
The Buckeyes are quite intimate with adversity this season, from the preseason injury to practical Heisman finalist lock Braxton Miller to the late season injury to practical Heisman finalist lock JT Barrett. After a series of embarrassing losses on September 6th, various idiots around the nation read the eulogy not just for the Bucks' 2014 season, but the entire B1G's. On a micro scale, OSU has found itself behind the 8-ball in a number of games this season, from trailing in their season-opening half against Navy, to dropping behind early by 14 against Virginia Tech, to struggling all first half long in a nightmare East Lansing environment, to trailing their hapless rival even into the 2nd half, to finding themselves behind 21-6 to the #1 team in the country. But on each of these occasions, this team found a way to fight back, folding only once to a team with a brilliant game plan designed to take advantage of this team's considerable youth. September feels like a long time ago, and though this team continues to make mistake after mistake and dig hole after hole, they don't have an ounce of quit in them. Florida State showed that mistakes can doom a team against the Ducks, but the Noles were still in the game for 2 1/2 quarters, until they gave up. Don't expect this squad to do the same.
7. Under Pressure
The Pac-12 season didn't start off so rosy for the Ducks, as they squeaked out a 7 point win over terrible Washington State and then folded to Arizona at home. What was the secret of their lack of success? A horizontal quarterback. The Cougars managed to sack Mariota 7 times, and the Wildcats were able to add 5 more even from a 3-3-5 scheme. Oregon has since righted the ship after the return of LT Jake Fisher, allowing only 17 sacks in its other 12 games, but they haven't seen a D-line like Ohio State's. The Silver Cannonballs sit at 12th in the nation in sacks, led by Joey ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, who's sitting on 13.5 sacks and hungry to sit on a few more. A couple of these might put Oregon into yardage sufficiently long to end a drive or two.
8. Getting Better All the Time
For the last couple of months, I've struggled to analogize this team to past OSU greats. After the Virginia Tech debacle, I feared another 2011, where a brand new QB and unproven RB struggled and a so-so defense let us down when we needed them most. After a couple of impressive wins over subpar competition, I thought they could be like the 2000 squad, with a QB nobody wanted to start, a decent running back, and a defense that could get us close to a B1G title, but not quite there. Then the legend of JT Barrett continued to grow and I began to have visions of 2007, with a terrific QB no one saw coming, hampered by a subpar O-line. Then the line started to jell, the receivers started to make plays, and the secondary picked off everything thrown their way; the 2006 juggernaut seemed more like the appropriate comparison. Every time I think I have this team pegged, they go above and beyond expectations. How should I think of them after the 59-0 dismantling of Wisconsin and a win over #1? 1998? 1996? 2010? 2002? True, the dream of undefeated died a long time ago, but I've never seen a team improve so much over the course of one season. And I don't think we've seen their best performance yet.
9. Heisman Revenge Tour
Marcus Mariota, Marcus Mariota, Marcus Mariota. No one player dominates the conversation leading up to this game like this year's Heisman winner, and rightfully so. However, the Buckeyes have run into a few Heisman contenders so far this season, and these difference-makers didn't make much of a difference against the Silver Bullets. D1-A's leading rusher, Melvin Gordon, racked up all of 76 yards on 26 carries, well below his season averages of 184 YPG and 7.5 YPC. Alabama's Amari Cooper did catch 2 TDs against the Buckeye secondary, but neither was longer than 15 yards, and Cooper was limited to 9 catches for 71 yards overall. Mariota wasn't at his best in the Rose Bowl, but he was effective. It's time for the Heisman curse to finish him off, at the hands of the Scarlet and Gray.
10. Coaching
Mark Helfrich has done a terrific job in his first two years as head man at Oregon, compiling an absurd 24-3 record and masterminding one of the nation's top two offenses (alongside Baylor's). However, Urban just went head-to-head with the nation's leader in national titles, the Devil himself, and outschemed him for another huge victory. This is nothing new for Urban, of course. He crashed the big boy BCS party with his undefeated Utes (back when it was hard to do so) and later created the fiction of SEC dominance by destroying Tressel's Buckeyes in the desert on January 8, 2007, adding another national championship a mere 2 years later for good measure. Despite what some boneheaded Buckeye fans believe, Meyer hasn't slowed his pace since coming to Ohio State, immediately reshaping the personnel from a 6-7 disappointment into 12-0 perfection, even though they had nothing to play for, and elevating each subsequent team to a higher and higher level. Helfrich is a fine coach, but Urban is first-class. If I were Helfrich, I'd be having trouble sleeping this weekend, distraught by the thought of having Urban's full attention for 11 days.
The Braxton Miller/Carlos Hyde combo might have been the best Buckeye rush attack since Cornelius Green and Archie Griffin. However, even after losing them both, the OSU rush attack hasn't suffered, racking up over 260 yards per game. And they've done it against such sledgehammer fronts as:
#1 Michigan State (88 YPG)
#3 Penn State (100 YPG)
#4 Alabama (102 YPG)
#15 Michigan (118 YPG)
#23 Wisconsin (126 YPG)
This isn't all on Jalin Marshall end-around sweeps, either. Ezekiel Elliott has the power to blow through the line and the speed to put defenders behind him once he dashes into the secondary. And he's been at his best since JT Barrett went down, going for 220 against Wisconsin and 230 against Alabama. Meanwhile, Cardale Jones decided to jump-start Ohio State's fading second quarter offense by seeking out Alabama linebackers to run over, sending a few of them off the field with injuries. Oregon's run defense isn't terrible (156 YPG, #51 in D1-A), but does anyone expect those spindly LBs and DBs to be a physical match for the bash brothers?
2. Upset City
Shortly after the conclusion of the Sugar Bowl, Vegas opened the championship game betting, giving 7 points to the Buckeyes. The line has come down to about -5 Oregon by this point, but seeing as how the favorite hasn't flipped, Duck fans should be nervous. Why? Since Urban Meyer came to Ohio State, his Buckeyes have been underdogs 5 times: this year against Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Alabama; and two years ago against Michigan State and Wisconsin (again). None of those predicted Buckeye losses came to fruition. No one motivates his team like Urban does, and this is just the extra fuel on the fire Oregon doesn't need.
3. Addition and Subtraction
In East Lansing, during what was then the climax of the Buckeye season, Dontre Wilson broke his foot. It didn't stop him from scoring a terrific touchdown, but the do-it-all wunderkind hasn't gained a yard for the Bucks since. Jalin Marshall has been a more than adequate replacement, single-handedly delivering the Buckeyes from a potentially devastating home loss against Indiana and playing a crucial role in extending several drives against Alabama. But now, Oregon will have to prepare for BOTH of them, including the possibility that both could see the field at the same time. On the other sideline, Oregon's WR corps is becoming more depleted by the day. Their leading Rose Bowl receiver, Darren Carrington, was gonna play, but then he got high; and their leading TD receiver on the season, Devon Allen, was injured early in the Rose Bowl and won't see the field. The Ducks are no stranger to injury on the season, but they can ill afford the loss of key personnel against their toughest opponent on the year.
4. Tradition
Nothing excites the college football fan base like a matchup of two of the sport's blue bloods pitting centuries of tradition against each other. This...is not one of those games. Ohio State is one of 8 programs with with a 70+ winning percentage and has won 7 national championships dating from WWII to the BCS era. Oregon has won less than 60% of its games and has NO national titles to its name. The Ducks have only sniffed a championship once in their 120 year history, falling to Auburn on a last second field goal in 2011. The Ducks run a gimmick offense and wear gimmick uniforms; particularly egregious are their upcoming abominations that feature NEITHER of their school colors. Ohio State is Script Ohio, Gold Pants, an ancient concrete stadium that looks like the Roman Colosseum, and the 10-Year-War. Oregon is...brought to you by Phil Knight. Of course, the most important tradition is winning, and the Ducks have put together 7 consecutive 10+ win seasons, but Ohio State has been in the title hunt year after year after year, and they've shown they can handle success on the highest level. Oh, and these teams have met often enough to establish a tradition of their own: once in Eugene, five times in Columbus, and twice in the Rose Bowl. Eight games, eight Buckeye victories.
5. Flip the Field
In the unthinkable event that one of these offenses is actually forced into fourth down and leaves the field, who has the advantage? Both teams have freshman placekickers, and while Neurnberger has been a bit inconsistent, the Ducks haven't even attempted a field goal past 42 yards. What if the offense stalls on its own side of the field? Oregon P Ian Wheeler is averaging 39 yards/punt, placing 10/41 punts inside the 20, but Ohio State's Cameron Johnston averages 45 yards, while still putting 24/73 punts inside the 20, including a few that appeared to scrape the goal line paint and jump backwards. If, somehow, the projected shootout turns out to be a Tresselesque defensive struggle, you can bet The Vest will be smiling at the booming punts flipping the field for the Scarlet and Gray.
6. Weathering the Storm
The Buckeyes are quite intimate with adversity this season, from the preseason injury to practical Heisman finalist lock Braxton Miller to the late season injury to practical Heisman finalist lock JT Barrett. After a series of embarrassing losses on September 6th, various idiots around the nation read the eulogy not just for the Bucks' 2014 season, but the entire B1G's. On a micro scale, OSU has found itself behind the 8-ball in a number of games this season, from trailing in their season-opening half against Navy, to dropping behind early by 14 against Virginia Tech, to struggling all first half long in a nightmare East Lansing environment, to trailing their hapless rival even into the 2nd half, to finding themselves behind 21-6 to the #1 team in the country. But on each of these occasions, this team found a way to fight back, folding only once to a team with a brilliant game plan designed to take advantage of this team's considerable youth. September feels like a long time ago, and though this team continues to make mistake after mistake and dig hole after hole, they don't have an ounce of quit in them. Florida State showed that mistakes can doom a team against the Ducks, but the Noles were still in the game for 2 1/2 quarters, until they gave up. Don't expect this squad to do the same.
7. Under Pressure
The Pac-12 season didn't start off so rosy for the Ducks, as they squeaked out a 7 point win over terrible Washington State and then folded to Arizona at home. What was the secret of their lack of success? A horizontal quarterback. The Cougars managed to sack Mariota 7 times, and the Wildcats were able to add 5 more even from a 3-3-5 scheme. Oregon has since righted the ship after the return of LT Jake Fisher, allowing only 17 sacks in its other 12 games, but they haven't seen a D-line like Ohio State's. The Silver Cannonballs sit at 12th in the nation in sacks, led by Joey ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, who's sitting on 13.5 sacks and hungry to sit on a few more. A couple of these might put Oregon into yardage sufficiently long to end a drive or two.
8. Getting Better All the Time
For the last couple of months, I've struggled to analogize this team to past OSU greats. After the Virginia Tech debacle, I feared another 2011, where a brand new QB and unproven RB struggled and a so-so defense let us down when we needed them most. After a couple of impressive wins over subpar competition, I thought they could be like the 2000 squad, with a QB nobody wanted to start, a decent running back, and a defense that could get us close to a B1G title, but not quite there. Then the legend of JT Barrett continued to grow and I began to have visions of 2007, with a terrific QB no one saw coming, hampered by a subpar O-line. Then the line started to jell, the receivers started to make plays, and the secondary picked off everything thrown their way; the 2006 juggernaut seemed more like the appropriate comparison. Every time I think I have this team pegged, they go above and beyond expectations. How should I think of them after the 59-0 dismantling of Wisconsin and a win over #1? 1998? 1996? 2010? 2002? True, the dream of undefeated died a long time ago, but I've never seen a team improve so much over the course of one season. And I don't think we've seen their best performance yet.
9. Heisman Revenge Tour
Marcus Mariota, Marcus Mariota, Marcus Mariota. No one player dominates the conversation leading up to this game like this year's Heisman winner, and rightfully so. However, the Buckeyes have run into a few Heisman contenders so far this season, and these difference-makers didn't make much of a difference against the Silver Bullets. D1-A's leading rusher, Melvin Gordon, racked up all of 76 yards on 26 carries, well below his season averages of 184 YPG and 7.5 YPC. Alabama's Amari Cooper did catch 2 TDs against the Buckeye secondary, but neither was longer than 15 yards, and Cooper was limited to 9 catches for 71 yards overall. Mariota wasn't at his best in the Rose Bowl, but he was effective. It's time for the Heisman curse to finish him off, at the hands of the Scarlet and Gray.
10. Coaching
Mark Helfrich has done a terrific job in his first two years as head man at Oregon, compiling an absurd 24-3 record and masterminding one of the nation's top two offenses (alongside Baylor's). However, Urban just went head-to-head with the nation's leader in national titles, the Devil himself, and outschemed him for another huge victory. This is nothing new for Urban, of course. He crashed the big boy BCS party with his undefeated Utes (back when it was hard to do so) and later created the fiction of SEC dominance by destroying Tressel's Buckeyes in the desert on January 8, 2007, adding another national championship a mere 2 years later for good measure. Despite what some boneheaded Buckeye fans believe, Meyer hasn't slowed his pace since coming to Ohio State, immediately reshaping the personnel from a 6-7 disappointment into 12-0 perfection, even though they had nothing to play for, and elevating each subsequent team to a higher and higher level. Helfrich is a fine coach, but Urban is first-class. If I were Helfrich, I'd be having trouble sleeping this weekend, distraught by the thought of having Urban's full attention for 11 days.
Friday, January 09, 2015
10 Reasons Why Oregon Beats Ohio State
1. Mariota Party
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is the nation's leading offensive weapon by a wide margin. He leads all quarterbacks in QBR, yards/attempt, TD/INT ratio, and total TDs. He's 3rd in total passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs, and 5th in completion percentage. Mariota has been stellar ever since starting his freshman year, racking up 103 TDs and only 13 INTs over 3 seasons while compiling a 36-4 record. Oh, and he just won the Heisman trophy by the second-largest margin in the history of the award. (I wonder who had the largest margin...) If Mariota brings his "A" game to Dallas, it's tough to see how Ohio State can possibly counter such a difference maker. Cardale Jones has none of Mariota's experience (2-0 record as starter), rating (159.0 vs. Mariota's 184.3), or TD/INT ratio (6:1 vs. Mariota's 40:3).
2. Buckeye Turnover Drive
The Ducks sport the FBS's most favorable turnover margin, +20 over 14 games. While Ohio State is no slouch in this department (+10 over the same 14 games), it's troubling to imagine what Oregon could do with an extra turnover in this game, particularly since neither defense is expected to have much hope of forcing the other offense to punt. One stop, one score, may make all the difference. Thankfully, the Scarlet and Gray have matched the Green and Gold's ball-hawking efforts in their 2 postseason efforts; both squads have grabbed 7 TOs and lost 2 since the start of December.
3. Old, Unbusted Hotness
Ohio State's starting 22 features 11 freshman and sophomores, while Oregon only puts 7 underclassmen on their first team. We've already discussed Oregon's substantial experience advantage at QB, but equally worrisome is Ohio State's young O-line, which returned only one starter from last year. Oregon's offensive line, in contrast, returned 3 starters from 2013. Both teams have had phenomenal success and are playing their best football of the season in 2015, but at what point does OSU's lack of experience become a liability? The Crimson Tide sacked Cardale 3 times in the Sugar Bowl, while Mariota spent New Year's untouched by the FSU front.
4. Ain't No Stopping Us Now
Nobody has scored more points this season than the Oregon Ducks: 47.2 PPG. (The Baylor Bears scored one PPG more than Oregon, but played one fewer game). And no team has held the Ducks below 42 points since their loss to Arizona on October 2nd. The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense, either, averaging 45 PPG, but they've had their sputters down the stretch, scoring only 31 against Penn State (needing two short fields in OT to do so) and against Minnesota (albeit in a blizzard). The Seminoles had a month to rest their injured star linebackers and analyze the Quack Attack, and what happened? They got blasted for 59 points, Oregon's highest total since their season-opening win over South Dakota. The Silver Bullets are a bit tougher than the Noles, but nowhere near the same league as the Cardinal (16.4 PPG allowed), on whom the Ducks unloaded for 45 points. The Buckeyes don't often give up 40+ points and win, although it can be done (2013 vs. Michigan, 2012 @ Indiana). Can they beat an opponent they can't stop?
5. A Real, Live Quarterback
But then again, it's not like the Bucks are playing terrible offenses like Penn State and Michigan every week. Ohio State has faced the nation's #7 (Michigan State), #16 (Alabama), #29 (Wisconsin), and #31 (Cincinnati), holding them to an average of 20 PPG, just over half of these teams' combined scoring average. What separates the Ducks from these teams? If you read #1 above, you probably know the answer: an elite-level QB. Gunner Kiel and Connor Cook are nowhere near Mariota's talent level, but each was able to throw for over 350 yards against the Buckeye back seven. The Silver Bullets have improved a bit since from November on, culminating in a great Sugar Bowl performance that saw Blake Sims held to under 250 yards and forced 3 picks, but Mariota is no improvised first-year starter, and he's certainly not the hot flaming mess that is Joel Stave, or Zander Diamont. Unless the secondary plays at another level, Buckeye Nation is going to have flashbacks of 2013 all night long.
6. The Red Zone is for Loading and Unloading Only. There Is No Stopping in the Red Zone.
In Buckeye Nation's darkest hour, when Ohio State trailed Alabama 21-6, where lay the blame? Two turnovers in OSU territory certainly didn't help, but Alabama was finishing their drives, while Ohio State's efforts were falling just short. Across the country, the Ducks did some sputtering of their own, ending consecutive first-half possessions with a turnover on downs and a short field goal, but the Ducks never trailed because FSU's first 3 possessions ended in two field goals and a turnover on downs. If the Buckeyes can't figure out how to covert 1st-and-goal from the 2 (hint: give the ball to Zeke), or at least force a field goal or two, they'll find themselves in another hole very quickly, and 15 down against Oregon is probably insurmountable.
7. And Bad Mistakes...I've Made a Few
Much is being made of the Ducks' blowout win over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, but most people seem to be forgetting that the score was only 18-13 at half, after the Noles had already racked up almost 300 yards of offense, and FSU was within 4 until halfway through the third quarter. How did Oregon maintain the lead, and how did they eventually blow the game wide open? Capitalizing on mistakes. 2 turnovers on downs in the first half kept the Ducks in control, and 5 second-half turnovers keyed a 28-0 run to end the game. Meanwhile, Ohio State choked away a first half they were otherwise dominating through their red zone mismanagement and slippery ball handling, and a bizarre first down bomb at on their final drive gave Alabama a last gasp to tie the game on a Hail Mary. Woody Hayes sagely observed that the team that makes the least mistakes wins. If New Year's Day replays itself, that team will be the Oregon Ducks.
8. Pac Attack
It's easy to make the case for the Pac-12 as college football's top conference this season. The Pac-12 went 9-3 against the other Power 5 conferences and Notre Dame during the regular season, adding another 5 wins and a loss against power teams during the bowl season. Included in that stellar resume are seven wins over our beloved B1G, with a lone loss coming through lowly Washington State's season-opening loss to Rutgers. The Ducks have run roughshod over their conference foes, winning each of their last 8 conference games by double digits. Ohio State has had similar success, and while the B1G earned some redemption this bowl season, nobody's about to forget the disastrous September that nearly eliminated them from playoff contention. One potential Pac-trap: the entire conference managed to avoid any battles against the ALMIGHTY SEC, which you may recognize as the league against which the Buckeyes went 1-0 this year.
9. One Foot out the Door
Where is Tom Herman's head right now? After an amazing run at offensive coordinator which saw Ohio State's PPG jump from 30.7 during the 2009-11 seasons to 42.8 over the last 3 years, Herman has been hired away to take the head job with the Houston Cougars. After taking the job, Herman decided to stay on as OC for the Bucks during the playoffs, and the offense hasn't suffered yet, putting up a healthy 42 on one of the nation's top defenses. But students of history may remember a similar situation back in 2000/01. Mark Richt, architect of Florida State's offense, tops in the nation, accepted the head coaching job at Georgia prior to the national championship. The Noles proceeded to unconditionally surrender to a stifling Oklahoma defense, accumulating all of ZERO offensive points. Maybe the Sooner D was just that good, maybe the Noles were just off that day, or maybe Richt phoned in his bowl prep. Given what we saw in the Sugar Bowl, and what we know about Oregon's defense, it's unlikely that Herman's Buckeyes will suffer the same fate, but anything less than an "A" performance from the Buckeye attack probably won't get the job done.
10. 2 Fast 2 Furious
One of my least phrases in sports is "closer than (or not as close as) the score indicates." Nothing a team does matters other than the points they put up and give up. Better to say that "the outcome was never really in doubt," which applies to the last few minutes of each of Ohio State's wins since the Penn State 2OT thriller, with the exception of the Sugar Bowl. But looking at the scores, there haven't been too many blowouts: Michigan State by 12, Minnesota by 7, Indiana by 15, Michigan by 14, Alabama by 7. Each of these games (except Alabama) was comfortably in hand, yet the scores don't reflect this reality. Why not? Because the Silver Bullets, for whatever reason, don't like to close out games once they think they have a safe lead. In every game (except Wisconsin, obviously) since Penn State, the Buckeyes' opponent has scored the final TD, often in embarrassing fashion:
Michigan State: 10 play, 76-yard TD drive in 1:52 after Ohio State went up 49-31
Minnesota: Recovered a muffed punt at the OSU 14, scored 2 plays later, added a FG, all after Ohio State went up 31-14
Indiana: Tevin Coleman 52-yard TD run after Ohio State went up 42-20
Michigan: 9 play, 75-yard TD drive in 2:43 after Ohio State went up 42-21
Alabama: 6 play, 65 yard TD drive in 1:25 after Ohio State went up 42-28
Oregon's offense scores the second-most points in the country, with the nation's 115th-ranked average time of possession. They scored 7 offensive TDs against Florida State, and none took longer than 3 minutes. No lead is safe, and if the Buckeyes are going to hold on in the fourth quarter yet again, they can't blink.
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is the nation's leading offensive weapon by a wide margin. He leads all quarterbacks in QBR, yards/attempt, TD/INT ratio, and total TDs. He's 3rd in total passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs, and 5th in completion percentage. Mariota has been stellar ever since starting his freshman year, racking up 103 TDs and only 13 INTs over 3 seasons while compiling a 36-4 record. Oh, and he just won the Heisman trophy by the second-largest margin in the history of the award. (I wonder who had the largest margin...) If Mariota brings his "A" game to Dallas, it's tough to see how Ohio State can possibly counter such a difference maker. Cardale Jones has none of Mariota's experience (2-0 record as starter), rating (159.0 vs. Mariota's 184.3), or TD/INT ratio (6:1 vs. Mariota's 40:3).
2. Buckeye Turnover Drive
The Ducks sport the FBS's most favorable turnover margin, +20 over 14 games. While Ohio State is no slouch in this department (+10 over the same 14 games), it's troubling to imagine what Oregon could do with an extra turnover in this game, particularly since neither defense is expected to have much hope of forcing the other offense to punt. One stop, one score, may make all the difference. Thankfully, the Scarlet and Gray have matched the Green and Gold's ball-hawking efforts in their 2 postseason efforts; both squads have grabbed 7 TOs and lost 2 since the start of December.
3. Old, Unbusted Hotness
Ohio State's starting 22 features 11 freshman and sophomores, while Oregon only puts 7 underclassmen on their first team. We've already discussed Oregon's substantial experience advantage at QB, but equally worrisome is Ohio State's young O-line, which returned only one starter from last year. Oregon's offensive line, in contrast, returned 3 starters from 2013. Both teams have had phenomenal success and are playing their best football of the season in 2015, but at what point does OSU's lack of experience become a liability? The Crimson Tide sacked Cardale 3 times in the Sugar Bowl, while Mariota spent New Year's untouched by the FSU front.
4. Ain't No Stopping Us Now
Nobody has scored more points this season than the Oregon Ducks: 47.2 PPG. (The Baylor Bears scored one PPG more than Oregon, but played one fewer game). And no team has held the Ducks below 42 points since their loss to Arizona on October 2nd. The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense, either, averaging 45 PPG, but they've had their sputters down the stretch, scoring only 31 against Penn State (needing two short fields in OT to do so) and against Minnesota (albeit in a blizzard). The Seminoles had a month to rest their injured star linebackers and analyze the Quack Attack, and what happened? They got blasted for 59 points, Oregon's highest total since their season-opening win over South Dakota. The Silver Bullets are a bit tougher than the Noles, but nowhere near the same league as the Cardinal (16.4 PPG allowed), on whom the Ducks unloaded for 45 points. The Buckeyes don't often give up 40+ points and win, although it can be done (2013 vs. Michigan, 2012 @ Indiana). Can they beat an opponent they can't stop?
5. A Real, Live Quarterback
But then again, it's not like the Bucks are playing terrible offenses like Penn State and Michigan every week. Ohio State has faced the nation's #7 (Michigan State), #16 (Alabama), #29 (Wisconsin), and #31 (Cincinnati), holding them to an average of 20 PPG, just over half of these teams' combined scoring average. What separates the Ducks from these teams? If you read #1 above, you probably know the answer: an elite-level QB. Gunner Kiel and Connor Cook are nowhere near Mariota's talent level, but each was able to throw for over 350 yards against the Buckeye back seven. The Silver Bullets have improved a bit since from November on, culminating in a great Sugar Bowl performance that saw Blake Sims held to under 250 yards and forced 3 picks, but Mariota is no improvised first-year starter, and he's certainly not the hot flaming mess that is Joel Stave, or Zander Diamont. Unless the secondary plays at another level, Buckeye Nation is going to have flashbacks of 2013 all night long.
6. The Red Zone is for Loading and Unloading Only. There Is No Stopping in the Red Zone.
In Buckeye Nation's darkest hour, when Ohio State trailed Alabama 21-6, where lay the blame? Two turnovers in OSU territory certainly didn't help, but Alabama was finishing their drives, while Ohio State's efforts were falling just short. Across the country, the Ducks did some sputtering of their own, ending consecutive first-half possessions with a turnover on downs and a short field goal, but the Ducks never trailed because FSU's first 3 possessions ended in two field goals and a turnover on downs. If the Buckeyes can't figure out how to covert 1st-and-goal from the 2 (hint: give the ball to Zeke), or at least force a field goal or two, they'll find themselves in another hole very quickly, and 15 down against Oregon is probably insurmountable.
7. And Bad Mistakes...I've Made a Few
Much is being made of the Ducks' blowout win over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, but most people seem to be forgetting that the score was only 18-13 at half, after the Noles had already racked up almost 300 yards of offense, and FSU was within 4 until halfway through the third quarter. How did Oregon maintain the lead, and how did they eventually blow the game wide open? Capitalizing on mistakes. 2 turnovers on downs in the first half kept the Ducks in control, and 5 second-half turnovers keyed a 28-0 run to end the game. Meanwhile, Ohio State choked away a first half they were otherwise dominating through their red zone mismanagement and slippery ball handling, and a bizarre first down bomb at on their final drive gave Alabama a last gasp to tie the game on a Hail Mary. Woody Hayes sagely observed that the team that makes the least mistakes wins. If New Year's Day replays itself, that team will be the Oregon Ducks.
8. Pac Attack
It's easy to make the case for the Pac-12 as college football's top conference this season. The Pac-12 went 9-3 against the other Power 5 conferences and Notre Dame during the regular season, adding another 5 wins and a loss against power teams during the bowl season. Included in that stellar resume are seven wins over our beloved B1G, with a lone loss coming through lowly Washington State's season-opening loss to Rutgers. The Ducks have run roughshod over their conference foes, winning each of their last 8 conference games by double digits. Ohio State has had similar success, and while the B1G earned some redemption this bowl season, nobody's about to forget the disastrous September that nearly eliminated them from playoff contention. One potential Pac-trap: the entire conference managed to avoid any battles against the ALMIGHTY SEC, which you may recognize as the league against which the Buckeyes went 1-0 this year.
9. One Foot out the Door
Where is Tom Herman's head right now? After an amazing run at offensive coordinator which saw Ohio State's PPG jump from 30.7 during the 2009-11 seasons to 42.8 over the last 3 years, Herman has been hired away to take the head job with the Houston Cougars. After taking the job, Herman decided to stay on as OC for the Bucks during the playoffs, and the offense hasn't suffered yet, putting up a healthy 42 on one of the nation's top defenses. But students of history may remember a similar situation back in 2000/01. Mark Richt, architect of Florida State's offense, tops in the nation, accepted the head coaching job at Georgia prior to the national championship. The Noles proceeded to unconditionally surrender to a stifling Oklahoma defense, accumulating all of ZERO offensive points. Maybe the Sooner D was just that good, maybe the Noles were just off that day, or maybe Richt phoned in his bowl prep. Given what we saw in the Sugar Bowl, and what we know about Oregon's defense, it's unlikely that Herman's Buckeyes will suffer the same fate, but anything less than an "A" performance from the Buckeye attack probably won't get the job done.
10. 2 Fast 2 Furious
One of my least phrases in sports is "closer than (or not as close as) the score indicates." Nothing a team does matters other than the points they put up and give up. Better to say that "the outcome was never really in doubt," which applies to the last few minutes of each of Ohio State's wins since the Penn State 2OT thriller, with the exception of the Sugar Bowl. But looking at the scores, there haven't been too many blowouts: Michigan State by 12, Minnesota by 7, Indiana by 15, Michigan by 14, Alabama by 7. Each of these games (except Alabama) was comfortably in hand, yet the scores don't reflect this reality. Why not? Because the Silver Bullets, for whatever reason, don't like to close out games once they think they have a safe lead. In every game (except Wisconsin, obviously) since Penn State, the Buckeyes' opponent has scored the final TD, often in embarrassing fashion:
Michigan State: 10 play, 76-yard TD drive in 1:52 after Ohio State went up 49-31
Minnesota: Recovered a muffed punt at the OSU 14, scored 2 plays later, added a FG, all after Ohio State went up 31-14
Indiana: Tevin Coleman 52-yard TD run after Ohio State went up 42-20
Michigan: 9 play, 75-yard TD drive in 2:43 after Ohio State went up 42-21
Alabama: 6 play, 65 yard TD drive in 1:25 after Ohio State went up 42-28
Oregon's offense scores the second-most points in the country, with the nation's 115th-ranked average time of possession. They scored 7 offensive TDs against Florida State, and none took longer than 3 minutes. No lead is safe, and if the Buckeyes are going to hold on in the fourth quarter yet again, they can't blink.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Updated Conference Champion and Playoff Predictions - After Week 8
Conference Champions
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Hoying: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Seeberg: E: MSU W: Nebraska Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: TCU
Hoying: TCU
Schweinfurth: TCU
Seeberg: Kansas State
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
Hoying: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: USC
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA W: Alabama Champ: Alabama
Hoying: E: UGA W: Ole Miss Champ: Ole Miss
Schweinfurth: E: UGA W: Miss St Champ: Miss St
Seeberg: E: UGA W: Miss St Champ: Miss St
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, OSU, Bama, Oregon
Hoying: Ole Miss, FSU, OSU, TCU
Schweinfurth: FSU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Miss St
Seeberg: FSU, Miss St, MSU, Oregon
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU C: Duke Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Hoying: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU W: Nebraska Champ: OSU
Seeberg: E: MSU W: Nebraska Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: TCU
Hoying: TCU
Schweinfurth: TCU
Seeberg: Kansas State
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
Hoying: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: USC
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Oregon S: USC Champ: Oregon
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA W: Alabama Champ: Alabama
Hoying: E: UGA W: Ole Miss Champ: Ole Miss
Schweinfurth: E: UGA W: Miss St Champ: Miss St
Seeberg: E: UGA W: Miss St Champ: Miss St
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, OSU, Bama, Oregon
Hoying: Ole Miss, FSU, OSU, TCU
Schweinfurth: FSU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Miss St
Seeberg: FSU, Miss St, MSU, Oregon
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Preseason Predictions
Conference Champions
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU, C: Miami, Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Homer pick but I'm going for gel before East Lansing)
Hoying: E: MSU, W: Iowa, Champ: MSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Same as Draper, but you can't overlook the Spartans losses on D)
Seeberg: E: MSU, W: Wisconsin, Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: Oklahoma
Hoying: Baylor
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma
Seeberg: Oklahoma (for lack of a better option)
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Stanford (hopeful- I hate Oregon) S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Hoying: E: UGA, W: LSU, Champ: UGA
Schweinfurth: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: UGA
Seeberg: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, Bama, OSU, UCLA
Hoying: FSU, UGA, MSU, Baylor
Schweinfurth: FSU, UGA, OSU, Oregon
Seeberg: UCLA, FSU, MSU, Bama
Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Jameis Winston
2) Brett Hundley
3) Todd Gurley
Dark Horse: JT Barrett (redshirt freshman #3?)
Hoying
1) Jameis Winston
2) Bryce Petty
3) Marcus Mariota
Dark Horse: Devin Gardner
Schweinfurth
1) Todd Durley
2) Jameis Winston
3) Trevor Knight
Dark Horse: Keenan Williams
Seeberg
1) Todd Gurley
2) Brett Hundley
3) Jameis Winston
Dark Horse: Nick Marshall
ACC (Atlantic, Coastal, Champ)
Draper: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Hoying: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Schweinfurth: A: FSU, C: VaTech, Champ: FSU
Seeberg: A: FSU, C: Miami, Champ: FSU
B1G (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Homer pick but I'm going for gel before East Lansing)
Hoying: E: MSU, W: Iowa, Champ: MSU
Schweinfurth: E: OSU, W: Nebraska, Champ: OSU (Same as Draper, but you can't overlook the Spartans losses on D)
Seeberg: E: MSU, W: Wisconsin, Champ: MSU
Big 12
Draper: Oklahoma
Hoying: Baylor
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma
Seeberg: Oklahoma (for lack of a better option)
Pac 12 (North, South, Champ)
Draper: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Hoying: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
Schweinfurth: N: Oregon, S: UCLA, Champ: Oregon
Seeberg: N: Stanford (hopeful- I hate Oregon) S: UCLA, Champ: UCLA
SEC (East, West, Champ)
Draper: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Hoying: E: UGA, W: LSU, Champ: UGA
Schweinfurth: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: UGA
Seeberg: E: UGA, W: Bama, Champ: Bama
Playoffs (champ in bold)
Draper: FSU, Bama, OSU, UCLA
Hoying: FSU, UGA, MSU, Baylor
Schweinfurth: FSU, UGA, OSU, Oregon
Seeberg: UCLA, FSU, MSU, Bama
Heisman Ballot
Draper
1) Jameis Winston
2) Brett Hundley
3) Todd Gurley
Dark Horse: JT Barrett (redshirt freshman #3?)
Hoying
1) Jameis Winston
2) Bryce Petty
3) Marcus Mariota
Dark Horse: Devin Gardner
Schweinfurth
1) Todd Durley
2) Jameis Winston
3) Trevor Knight
Dark Horse: Keenan Williams
Seeberg
1) Todd Gurley
2) Brett Hundley
3) Jameis Winston
Dark Horse: Nick Marshall
Friday, August 29, 2014
Buckeyes: Better Off With Braxton Hurt?
Entering a new season, a team's expectations are built mostly on last year's performance and the quality of the returning players. For example, following an undefeated 2012 campaign, expectations for Ohio State in 2013 were national championship or bust. While the 2012 Buckeyes weren't exactly dominant, the team returned the entire offense minus one offensive lineman and a wide receiver. While the defense suffered heavy losses to the line and the linebackers, the depth of the line and the return of star LB Ryan Shazier seemed to be enough to keep the ship steady. However, despite this wealth of talent and experience, the defense fizzled down the stretch and the season ended in supremely disappointing fashion.
The end of the 2013 season saw the departure of
Our star senior running back, Carlos Hyde
4 of 5 OL starters
Our ultra-dependable backup QB, Kenny Guiton
Reliable WR Philly Brown
The only excellent linebacker in a crew of scrubs, Ryan Shazier
3 of 4 DB starters
Our 4-year starting kicker, Drew Basil
All that remained was the excellent defensive line, a mediocre squad of receivers, and our record-setting QB Braxton Miller, who the coaches repeatedly described as a vastly improved passer. Championship expectations remained high, especially given the transition from a two-team to four-team championship playoff, but the optimism was a bit more cautious.
You know what happened next. Bye bye, Braxton; hello, J. T. Barrett. The 2014 championship hopes now appear all but dashed, unless Barrett turns out to be the next Jameis Winston (not even freshman Johnny Heisman could lead A&M to even a conference title, let alone a shot at the crystal football). However, given the question marks surrounding this year's men of the Scarlet and Gray, might the Buckeyes be better off in the long run with Braxton's senior campaign being deferred to 2015?
Let's have a look at the depth chart for this year. With so many new faces, it's tough to know who'll pan out and who'll flame out, but let's assume Urban knows what he's doing: the starters are the best players available and they'll continue to improve.
OFFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Offensive Line
The line returns only one starter from 2013, junior LT Taylor Decker. This crew will need some time to jell and may take a step back from last year's excellent squad. Looking forward, the offensive line has only one definite senior starter, RT Darryl Baldwin. Additionally, seniors might start at C and LG. But the two-deep for the line includes only these three seniors, which means the line is likely to largely remain intact next year, and will probably improve.
Wide Receivers
Here's where the turnover will hit hardest. All our starting receivers, including TE Jeff Heuerman, are seniors. It's not a stellar group (the Buckeyes haven't had a great receiver since Sanzenbacher), but the 2015 team will have to make sure their receivers are ready to be on the same page with Braxton.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Dontre Wilson are plenty young, and another year of experience will make them all the more dangerous in 2015. We'll lose Rod Smith, but if he was going to make some noise, he'd have done so already.
Quarterback
Remember how nice it was to have a backup on whom we could rely to preserve any victory if Braxton went down? As this offseason showed, we'll need a competent backup to carry us forward whenever Braxton's senior campaign begins. I'd feel much better if that backup, either Barrett or Jones, had a year of experience under his belt, and this season is a perfect opportunity.
DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Defensive Line
Good news: other than the loss of Joel Hale (to the offensive line?!?) this outstanding crew is still intact. Better news: barring any early exits, the 2015 starting D line will lose only Michael Bennett (technically, senior Steve Miller is starting at Viper, but junior Noah Spence should be back to take his place soon). Don't expect any steps backward from this squad in the near future.
Linebackers
Ryan Shazier is gone, which is essentially equivalent to a full flush of the position. No one else in last year's corps was any good, but they'll have a chance to prove themselves anew under new co-DC Chris Ash. Fortunately, only one LB in the two-deep, captain Curtis Grant, will be gone next year, so expect this group to improve.
Defensive Backs
These guys sucked pretty bad last year, but their backups were even worse, and three of last year's starters (Bradley Roby, C. J. Barnett, Christian Bryant) are now gone. The good news is that 2015 will bring the departure of only Doran Grant, so these guys have another two years to channel their inner Silver Bullets.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Replacing a four-year kicker isn't easy, but Ohio State thinks they have an answer in freshman Sean Neurnberger. Again, he's a freshman, so look for him to improve over time. Also, last year's most undervalued Buckeye, P Cameron Johnston, is plenty young, so expect him to be an all-star by the time 2015 rolls around. Meanwhile, young speedsters Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall will be terrorizing oppenents' kicking and punting games for the foreseeable future.
BOTTOM LINE
The depth chart is notably light on senior leadership, even more so following the loss of Braxton. While it's tough to accept anything less than undefeated championship seasons at OSU, the thought of Braxton using another year to improve and get healthy and retaking the reins of an adversity-toughened 2015 squad sends chills down my spine. With Braxton's return, the 2015 Buckeyes could be the most talented and complete squad since 2006, or possibly of all time, if we can discover greatness among our stable of running backs and turn a corner in the secondary.
So grit your teeth, Buckeye Nation, and prepare for what should be an exciting 2014. Don't cry for Braxton or the Buckeyes. If Barrett turns out to be terrific, this team could still end up in Pasadena. If he experiences some growing pains, remember that the best is yet to come for Urban and the Bucks.
The end of the 2013 season saw the departure of
Our star senior running back, Carlos Hyde
4 of 5 OL starters
Our ultra-dependable backup QB, Kenny Guiton
Reliable WR Philly Brown
The only excellent linebacker in a crew of scrubs, Ryan Shazier
3 of 4 DB starters
Our 4-year starting kicker, Drew Basil
All that remained was the excellent defensive line, a mediocre squad of receivers, and our record-setting QB Braxton Miller, who the coaches repeatedly described as a vastly improved passer. Championship expectations remained high, especially given the transition from a two-team to four-team championship playoff, but the optimism was a bit more cautious.
You know what happened next. Bye bye, Braxton; hello, J. T. Barrett. The 2014 championship hopes now appear all but dashed, unless Barrett turns out to be the next Jameis Winston (not even freshman Johnny Heisman could lead A&M to even a conference title, let alone a shot at the crystal football). However, given the question marks surrounding this year's men of the Scarlet and Gray, might the Buckeyes be better off in the long run with Braxton's senior campaign being deferred to 2015?
Let's have a look at the depth chart for this year. With so many new faces, it's tough to know who'll pan out and who'll flame out, but let's assume Urban knows what he's doing: the starters are the best players available and they'll continue to improve.
OFFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Offensive Line
The line returns only one starter from 2013, junior LT Taylor Decker. This crew will need some time to jell and may take a step back from last year's excellent squad. Looking forward, the offensive line has only one definite senior starter, RT Darryl Baldwin. Additionally, seniors might start at C and LG. But the two-deep for the line includes only these three seniors, which means the line is likely to largely remain intact next year, and will probably improve.
Wide Receivers
Here's where the turnover will hit hardest. All our starting receivers, including TE Jeff Heuerman, are seniors. It's not a stellar group (the Buckeyes haven't had a great receiver since Sanzenbacher), but the 2015 team will have to make sure their receivers are ready to be on the same page with Braxton.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott and Dontre Wilson are plenty young, and another year of experience will make them all the more dangerous in 2015. We'll lose Rod Smith, but if he was going to make some noise, he'd have done so already.
Quarterback
Remember how nice it was to have a backup on whom we could rely to preserve any victory if Braxton went down? As this offseason showed, we'll need a competent backup to carry us forward whenever Braxton's senior campaign begins. I'd feel much better if that backup, either Barrett or Jones, had a year of experience under his belt, and this season is a perfect opportunity.
DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART:
Defensive Line
Good news: other than the loss of Joel Hale (to the offensive line?!?) this outstanding crew is still intact. Better news: barring any early exits, the 2015 starting D line will lose only Michael Bennett (technically, senior Steve Miller is starting at Viper, but junior Noah Spence should be back to take his place soon). Don't expect any steps backward from this squad in the near future.
Linebackers
Ryan Shazier is gone, which is essentially equivalent to a full flush of the position. No one else in last year's corps was any good, but they'll have a chance to prove themselves anew under new co-DC Chris Ash. Fortunately, only one LB in the two-deep, captain Curtis Grant, will be gone next year, so expect this group to improve.
Defensive Backs
These guys sucked pretty bad last year, but their backups were even worse, and three of last year's starters (Bradley Roby, C. J. Barnett, Christian Bryant) are now gone. The good news is that 2015 will bring the departure of only Doran Grant, so these guys have another two years to channel their inner Silver Bullets.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Replacing a four-year kicker isn't easy, but Ohio State thinks they have an answer in freshman Sean Neurnberger. Again, he's a freshman, so look for him to improve over time. Also, last year's most undervalued Buckeye, P Cameron Johnston, is plenty young, so expect him to be an all-star by the time 2015 rolls around. Meanwhile, young speedsters Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall will be terrorizing oppenents' kicking and punting games for the foreseeable future.
BOTTOM LINE
The depth chart is notably light on senior leadership, even more so following the loss of Braxton. While it's tough to accept anything less than undefeated championship seasons at OSU, the thought of Braxton using another year to improve and get healthy and retaking the reins of an adversity-toughened 2015 squad sends chills down my spine. With Braxton's return, the 2015 Buckeyes could be the most talented and complete squad since 2006, or possibly of all time, if we can discover greatness among our stable of running backs and turn a corner in the secondary.
So grit your teeth, Buckeye Nation, and prepare for what should be an exciting 2014. Don't cry for Braxton or the Buckeyes. If Barrett turns out to be terrific, this team could still end up in Pasadena. If he experiences some growing pains, remember that the best is yet to come for Urban and the Bucks.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Top 25 rankings, Heisman Ballots, and BCS Projections
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6. Clemson
7. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma State
9. South Carolina
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. Wisconsin
13. Arizona State
14. UCF
15. LSU
16. Fresno State
17. Northern Illinois
18. Oregon
19. Louisville
20. Oklahoma
21. USC
22. Duke
23. UCLA
24. Cincinnati
25. Texas A&M
Draper Heisman Ballot (This is over barring charges being filed--gap between 1 and 2 is huge)
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Andre Williams (RB--BC)--Can't ignore the numbers and everyone else shooting themselves in foot
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
(Next up: Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU))
Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Auburn
6. South Carolina
7. Stanford
8. Arizona State
9. Baylor
10. UCF
11. Clemson
12. Missouri
13. Michigan State
14. Wisconsin
15. Oklahoma
16. Northern Illinois
17. Notre Dame
18. LSU
19. USC
20. Oregon
21. Fresno State
22. UCLA
23. Louisville
24. Texas
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Ryan Shazier (LB--OSU)
Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 10
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6.Oklahoma State
7. Baylor
8. Clemson
9. Michigan State
10. Oregon
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jamies Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Andre Williams (RB--BC)
Schweinfurth BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Fresno State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. UCF
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs.Alabama
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6. Clemson
7. Michigan State
8. Oklahoma State
9. South Carolina
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. Wisconsin
13. Arizona State
14. UCF
15. LSU
16. Fresno State
17. Northern Illinois
18. Oregon
19. Louisville
20. Oklahoma
21. USC
22. Duke
23. UCLA
24. Cincinnati
25. Texas A&M
Draper Heisman Ballot (This is over barring charges being filed--gap between 1 and 2 is huge)
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Andre Williams (RB--BC)--Can't ignore the numbers and everyone else shooting themselves in foot
3. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
(Next up: Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU))
Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma State
5. Auburn
6. South Carolina
7. Stanford
8. Arizona State
9. Baylor
10. UCF
11. Clemson
12. Missouri
13. Michigan State
14. Wisconsin
15. Oklahoma
16. Northern Illinois
17. Notre Dame
18. LSU
19. USC
20. Oregon
21. Fresno State
22. UCLA
23. Louisville
24. Texas
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Jordan Lynch (QB--NIU)
3. Ryan Shazier (LB--OSU)
Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 10
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Ohio State
4. Auburn
5. Missouri
6.Oklahoma State
7. Baylor
8. Clemson
9. Michigan State
10. Oregon
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jamies Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Andre Williams (RB--BC)
Schweinfurth BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Fresno State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. UCF
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs.Alabama
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Top 25 Rankings, Heisman Ballots, and updated BCS projections
Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they'll finish.
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
1A. Florida State
3. Ohio State
3A. Baylor
5. Auburn
6. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Oregon
9. Michigan State
10. Oklahoma State
11. Stanford
12. South Carolina
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State
17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. LSU
22. Oklahoma
23. Minnesota
24. USC
25. Duke
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Baylor
4. Ohio State
5. Auburn
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. South Carolina
9. Arizona State
10. UCF
11. Texas A&M
12. Clemson
13. Oklahoma
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. UCLA
18. Oklahoma State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Notre Dame
23. Mississippi
24. USC
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 25
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
Schweinfurth BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
1A. Florida State
3. Ohio State
3A. Baylor
5. Auburn
6. Clemson
7. Missouri
8. Oregon
9. Michigan State
10. Oklahoma State
11. Stanford
12. South Carolina
13. UCF
14. Arizona State
15. Wisconsin
16. Fresno State
17. Northern Illinois
18. UCLA
19. Louisville
20. Texas A&M
21. LSU
22. Oklahoma
23. Minnesota
24. USC
25. Duke
Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Draper BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
Hoying Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Baylor
4. Ohio State
5. Auburn
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. South Carolina
9. Arizona State
10. UCF
11. Texas A&M
12. Clemson
13. Oklahoma
14. Missouri
15. Michigan State
16. Wisconsin
17. UCLA
18. Oklahoma State
19. Northern Illinois
20. Louisville
21. Fresno State
22. Notre Dame
23. Mississippi
24. USC
25. Duke
Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Bryce Petty (QB--Baylor)
Hoying BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Northern Illinois
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Schweinfurth Top 25
2 1. Florida State
3 2.
Alabama
4 3.
Ohio State
5 4.
Baylor
6 5.
Clemson
7 6.
Stanford
7 7. Oregon
7 7. Oregon
8 8. Missouri
1 9. Auburn
1 10. Fresno
State
1 11. UCLA
1 12. Wisconsin
1 13. Oklahoma
State
1 14. Michigan
State
1 15. South
Carolina
16. LSU
16. LSU
1 17. Texas
A&M
2 18. Georgia
19. Oklahoma
19. Oklahoma
2 20. UCF
2 21. Louisville
2 22. Northern
Illinois
2 23. Arizona
State
2 24. Minnesota
25. USC
25. USC
Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Carlos Hyde (RB--OSU)
Schweinfurth BCS Projections
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
BCS National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
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