Friday, October 25, 2019

Week 9: Big Nude Saturday

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 25-3 (2-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 24-4 (4-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 23-5 (1-7 upset)
4.) Draper 22-6 (1-7 upset)

Thanks to Wisconsin's faceplant in Champaign, the Buckeyes won't get to participate in the biggest game of the regular season to date. And they probably won't get to in the future either (Penn State @ Ohio State is after LSU @ Alabama). But Gus Johnson is still coming to town, and the Bucks still get to kick off a pretty good day of football all around. Savor it (you won't believe what a hellscape next week is).

Auburn Tigers @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: Man, I wish this game was in Jordan Hare.  The Tigahs have been rolling behind Joe Burrow through some tough matchups, but can they keep it going through the brutal SEC West? Auburn and freshman QB, Bonix (better as one word), got a little shock to system when facing the Gators and a stout defense.  I think they rebound a bit in this game, but LSU is significantly better than UF on the offensive side of the ball.  While I don't think the Tigers are offensive world beaters (like the national media does), they should have enough fire power to outscore a teetering Auburn squad.  The visiting tigers keep it close early, but Death Valley and Coach O prove too much.  Aub: 16 -- LSU: 27
Hoying: Y'all are once again Tiger bait. The LSU version are this year's hot team to unseat Bama atop the SEC West (but actually with a chance this time). They're a veritable offensive juggernaut, the kind that makes Auburn long for the salad days of Cam Newton. BoNix doesn't have a prayer of hanging with Joey Turncloak, even against a somewhat vulnerable LSU defense. The TigAUrs have failed to crack 30 four times out of seven tries, and that's not going to get it done in Death Valley. Aub: 20--LSU: 42
Schweinfurth: LSU is flat rolling teams right now. How Auburn is still top 10 is beyond me (thanks Oregon, I guess). I have doubts as to whether or not LSU will actually run the table this year; their schedule is just ridiculous down the stretch. However, I don't think Auburn has the horses to keep up with the Joe Burrow offensive machine LSU tosses out there. Aub: 17--LSU: 35
Seeberg:  For those of you unaware, this is still actually a top 10 matchup as Auburn is still riding largely on the strength of their Oregon win (and the Ducks have looked very good since).  Unfortunately for the visiting Tigers, they will likely drop below Nike's trial-and-error (mostly error) uniform squad after this contest.  LSU is arguably executing better than the Buckeyes on offense, and though their D seems to have taken a half-step back this season, it's still an upper echelon unit.  War Eagle faceplanted on offense in their first road test at Florida, and the not-so-friendly confines of Death Valley aren't likely to be much more forgiving.  (Home) Tigers win. Aub: 20--LSU: 34

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: Did the Wolverines find the secret sauce in the 2nd half vs. Penn State? Maybe....but I think they just found some flaws in an overrated Lion team.  The Irish are still floating around the periphery of national relevance after that close loss to UGA, but I don't have much faith there either.  This should be a really good game since it's in the Big House.  The X-factor is Shea Patterson...in a negative way.  If he can put a consistent performance together, the Maize and Blue have a real shot.  The problem is: I don't think he can.  More gut-wrenching losses for the Wolverines are always a good thing, but the farewell tour for Jim Harbaugh has been a disappointment (to some).  ND: 20 -- UM: 17
Hoying: Revenge Tour! Oh wait, wrong season. The Wolverines have had some tough sledding against top teams this season, but they're a different beast at home under Harbaugh (except against Little Brother). The offense turned a bit of a corner in the second half in Happy Valley, but the knuckleheads still haven't figured out that the best way to exploit their advantages is just to chuck it deep every play. Maybe they need a bit of a dose of Mike Leach. Of course, that offense doesn't work in nasty weather (see last year's Pac-12 Championship) so the Wolverines are likely going to have to get things done on the ground. And unlike Justin Fields (see below), Michigan QB Shea Patterson doesn't really like to keep the ball, even though he's a mobile enough dude to be a threat on the zone read. Bad news for the Maize and Blue is that the Domers already have an offensive identity this year, one with a potent ground game. I just don't trust Michigan to put together a solid 60-minute performance until I see it (no, not against Rutgers). ND: 24--UM: 20
Schweinfurth: When do we stop acting like both of these teams are elite? How about this week? The only way I see the Wolverines winning this game is if they stop the run and force Ian Book to throw down field. I really can't see Harbooger's offense doing anything. Yes, the second half gave some optimism last week, but I feel like that was more of Penn State taking their foot off the gas. This game stays close but the Irish actually know how to win games. ND: 24--UM: 16 
Seeberg:  Well it pains me to say it, but TTUN looked like a solid, dare I say, near-elite team for a half against Penn State last weekend.  Unfortunately, two halves are required make a whole, and that 21-0 deficit was too much to overcome.  However, we're less certain how good the Fighting Irish Lou Holtz's are since their "good loss" to Georgia suddenly appears much less so.  Typically, the "is Harbaugh gone after this season?" speculation doesn't begin until November, but 2 losses and a home underdog game later and the train has arrived ahead of schedule.  Oh, and they opened at -2.5, so the fact that they're now +1 in Vegas is a really bad sign.  IF they can string together 4 quarters of quality football like the second half in Happy Valley, they can win this game.  But quite frankly there are only two teams operating at that kind of level right now...and both have Buckeye quarterbacks at the helm #developedhere.  Sadly, somebody has to win this game.  Happily, it won't be the maize and blue.  At least they'll finally be out of the rankings.  ND: 24--UM: 20

North Dakota State Bison @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Draper: The fact that College Gameday went to South Dakota over Columbus is a nice slap in the face.  Yes, these teams are highly ranked in the FCS division, but OSU/Wisc (even after the Badgers pooped the bed) is the game of the week.  Usually, throwing the bone to FCS comes later, but a game on FOX and having attended a B1G game last week likely sealed the fate.  Oh well, I'm sure these teams are good... SDSU almost took down Minnesota and NDSU gave us Carson Wentz.  Let's lean on the home team that has been tested.  Go Jackrabbits.  NDSU: 27--SDSU: 30
Hoying: On the surface, you'd look at this matchup and say, "Hey, NDSU is undefeated and SDSU isn't. Let's go with the away team." Not so fast, my friend, as the Bison ain't played nobody, and that loss that SDSU suffered? Was at the hands of undefeated Big Ten juggernaut...Minnesota, by one score, in a game the Jackrabbits led deep into the fourth quarter. Oddly enough, though these teams both play in the Missouri Valley Football Conference (hi Jim Tressel), they have played zero common opponents so far. One thing to look out for in this game: South Dakota State's been having some kicking problems this year, as Chase Vinatieri (yes, that Vinatieri) has only made 4 of 8 attempts so far. Could this make the difference? NDSU: 31--SDSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Yea, I don't watch much (any) FCS football outside of bowl season. I have no clue on this so go Bison? NDSU: 31--SDSU: 28
Seeberg:  Hey, bonus 1-AA game!  (I maintain that it is NOT the FCS).  Admittedly this is a big matchup, #1 vs. #3.  Only one loss between them, and that was SDSU's 7-point loss to undefeated Minnesota.  The Bizon (that's how they insist on pronouncing it for whatever reason) ripped off several titles in a row (2011-15) and the last two as well.  Their neighbors to the south have been excellent for the last few years as well, frequently in the top 10, just never able to get over the hump and win a title.  The presence of College GameDay might amp the home crowd up and make an already intense contest even more fever-pitched.  I wouldn't be surprised if a rematch pits these two against each other deep in the playoffs.  ND may get their revenge then, but the home crowd wins the day for the Jackrabbits.  ND: 23--SD: 24

Wisconsin Badgers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: I'd say I was upset with Wisconsin faceplanting before this game, but that would be a lie.  The Badgers are habitually fantastic at beating teams of lesser talent (last week excluded), but struggle against teams with better athletes....uh oh.  The main benefit for the Badgers is the potential poor weather to 'muck up the game'.  The bad news? The Buckeyes have the better running back in yards/att...by a full yard!  JK Dobbins puts on a show to wake up the national media to the completeness of the Buckeyes while Chase Young continues his dominance over unsuspecting QBs.  The Bucks need to slow Jonathan Taylor (Thomas?) down which will be a test for the linebackers, but the lack of an outside passing game should make that task a touch easier.  If Fields can avoid the mistakes and the receivers can eat (even a little), this shouldn't be close.  I'm calling my shot on a blowout.  Wisc: 17 -- OSU: 40
Hoying: Is it possible for the biggest game of the year to be a letdown game? Everyone in Buckeye Nation was looking forward to #3 vs. #6, but now it's just a game against a mid-ranked opponent. And a nasty one at that. The only thing I liked about the whole Legends/Leaders fiasco was that the Buckeyes got to play the Bucky's every year, as this had turned into one of the grittiest knock down drag out fights in the Big Ten. Sure, Ohio State's won 6 in a row, but all (except one, lol) were very close, and undefeated Buckeyes have fallen to the Badgers before, even in this very decade. I would feel a lot better about this game if it weren't raining, as I think we could have success with a "Five hundred!" offense much in the way Illinois did, only with some accuracy and pass protection. On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor's had fumble problems in the past, and this ball-hawking defense may have some opportunities with a slippery rock. I still think our running attack is superior to Wisconsin's: Dobbins/Teague vs. Taylor is about a dead heat at running back, while Fields can run circles around the Wisconsin's plain vanilla QB Jack "Ice Cream" Coan. Perhaps we should embrace the rain. Think more Ohio State - Illinois 2009, and less Ohio State - Michigan State 2015. If the Bucks win this one in a blowout, it's time to start thinking about putting them up on the Mount Rushmore of greatest Buckeye teams of all time. Wisc: 13 -- OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Say what you will about Ohio State's schedule this year, but Wisconsin's hasn't been much better. Common opponents in MSU and Northwestern are kind of a wash but consider this - Bucky played MSU THE WEEK AFTER Ohio State beat the crap out of them. I watched a bit of the Illinois game from last week on replay and is just seemed like Wisconsin's secondary and linebackers looked slow. Take that as you will, but Fields, Dobbins, and company all fly. The only thing that really scares me about Wisconsin is Johnathan Taylor, and only when he is in the open field. This game looks close on the rankings page and really that's as far as it goes. UW is a second quarter explosion away from getting smoked like everyone else. Go Bucks, Beat the Badgers! UW: 13--OSU: 42
Seeberg:  Well the shine is certainly off this game.  To be honest, I thought the Badgers had the best regular-season chance of upending the Buckeyes, but any team capable of losing to Illinois just flat out should not beat this team this season.  The offense is flawlessly balanced, capable of hurting any opponent right up the gut all the way out past the numbers.  The Silver Bullets are back on D, gang tackling, creating turnovers again, and *fingers crossed* not whiffing on tackles left and right like a season ago.  Unfortunately, the weather forecast (50s and continual rain) is a bit of a concern, but honestly it may be worse for the visiting squad.  An offense that already trends one-dimensional will have 0 ability to throw the ball in the wind and rain, but Fields' arm strength, coupled with his phenomenal corps of receivers, should still be able to make short and intermediate routes happen. I expect Wiscy to be ready, and angry after last week's dismal showing, but it still won't be enough.  Fields and Dobbins haven't even played a full four quarters yet, so there's no reason they can't pull away late and win convincingly.  OSU: 31--Wisc: 10 

Upset Special
Draper: Washington State over Oregon
Hoying: California over Utah
Schweinfurth: Maryland over Minnesota
Seeberg: Michigan State over Penn State