BCS Bowl Picks

Final Regular Season Standings
1) Hoying              48-22    (1-14 upset)
2) Schweinfurth    46-24    (4-11 upset)
3) Draper                43-27    (3-12 upset)
4) Seeberg               5-7      (0-2 upset)

Bowl Prediction Records Through December 30
1) Hoying                 12-7
2) Schweinfurth       9-10
2) Seeberg                9-10
4) Draper                  7-12

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans
Draper: This may be the most boring game of the bowl season.  Two teams with similar schemes will just beat the crap out of each other.  The loss of defensive leader Max Bullough is immense.  The Spartans are a good team, but the strength is stopping the pass--not as important vs. the Cardinal.  If Stanford watched the B1G Championship, they'll know to feed Gaffney and continue to slam the rock.  MSU will hang for awhile, but Stanford pulls away late.  Stan: 27--MSU: 17
Hoying: After a few years of "almost" under Mark Dantonio, the Spartans have finally taken their B1G step toward national relevance. Going into championship week, I didn't feel too good about Sparty's ability to compete in the Rose Bowl, but I saw a truly complete team crush my Buckeyes' hopes and dreams at Lucas Oil Stadium. Unfortunately, at the same time, Stanford was busy dismantling a very good Arizona State team for the second time. The Cardinal are basically a better version of Michigan State, a tough, physical team with super defense. The Spartans will be ready to play in this one, but the Connor Cook's success against Pitt Brown and C.J. Barnett won't translate into success against a tough Stanford secondary. Kevin Hogan will find just enough holes in the "no-fly zone" to lead the Cardinal to their second straight Rose Bowl victory. Stan: 24--MSU: 16
Seeberg:  This one will be in a style that would make Woody proud.  Lots of running, lots of physicality, not much of that thing where two things can go wrong, you know, passing.  Michigan State has had the best defensive player in this game in Max Bullough, but his suspension is a big blow to MSU's strongest unit.  Before his suspension I had MSU winning a nail-biter, 16-13 or something in that vicinity.  Losing their defensive signal-caller, however, will prove too much for the Spartans to overcome.  The tree prevails in a slugfest.  Stan: 20--MSU: 13

Fiesta Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears
Draper: Both teams have had relatively charmed seasons, but Baylor has faced MUCH better competition.  The Bears have scored on everyone they've faced and won fairly easily while the Knights have squeaked out a few late in the season by the skin of their teeth.  This shouldn't be close. Brice Petty and Seastrunk should have their way.  The American representative was really hoping for a better matchup.  UCF: 24--Baylor: 44
Hoying: For a team in the awful awful AAC, UCF actually has a pretty decent resume, with a great road win over Penn State and a near victory over South Carolina. Unfortunately, they've been playing like absolute garbage down the stretch, limping to lifeless wins over terrible teams like USF, Memphis, and SMU. Meanwhile, Baylor shook off the spiders of the Oklahoma State blowout to dominate Texas on their way to their first Big 12 championship. You think the Bears won't be excited to play in this game? You think UCF can slow down the nation's top offense? You think they'll ever catch the guy who really killed Kennedy and Oswald? UCF: 20--Bay: 59
Seeberg:  On paper, this game shouldn't be close.  It won't be close on the field either.  Blake Bortles is playing some darn good QB for UCF, arguably better than his conference foe Teddy Bridgewater (whom, it bears mentioning, he beat on Bridgewater's home field).  Baylor's D, or extreme lack thereof, will allow UCF to hang around for a quarter or two, but in the end Bryce Petty and Co. will put the Knights away.  UCF: 27--Bay: 52

Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: The only question is which Alabama team shows up--Will the dominant defense full of NFL draft picks impose their will or will we see a total 'we-don't-care' Tide that faced Utah in 2009 Sugar Bowl.  If Bama plays with some pride, this game will be a blowout over a completely overmatched Sooner squad.  The Sooners are lucky to be here after upsetting their rivals to end the season.  Their big fanbase doesn't hurt either.  Saban won't let this team relent as he's seen a Sugar Bowl collapse before.  This one's done by halftime.  OU: 10--Bama: 34
Hoying: Another year, another Oklahoma appearance in a BCS bowl. Big Game Bob has led the Sooners to the promised land at the end of 9 of the 16 BCS seasons. Unfortunately, they've struggled a bit in the last 10 years, losing 5 straight BCS bowls before a gimme against 8-4 Connecticut. But let's not pile on the hate and accusations (that's reserved for teams with 6 BCS wins). Miracle win against the Cowboys aside, the Sooners haven't really had a great season: they're still not settled at QB and they were demolished in their two most significant matchups (Texas and Baylor). Alabama has looked great, but there's a potential letdown factor after a heartbreaking loss on one of the more memorable plays in college football history. Coach Saban's hunger for victory is insatiable, and unless AJ McCarron wants his still-beating heart ripped from his chest and fed to the volcano, he'll spur the Tide on to a win. OU: 13--Ala: 24
Seeberg:  So...we have Florida State against a team from Alabama in the national title game.  All is right with the world, or is it?  'Bama's well-chronicled loss to Auburn almost transcended hyperbole as the most incredible way to lose a football game that has ever been conceived...if only all the band was out on the field.  Oklahoma benefitted from a Big 12 that was markedly weaker than in recent years and was able to sneak into another BCS game courtesy of their voodoo-like influence over their in-state rivals, the other OSU.  Alabama is superior in all three phrases with the possible exception of defending against returned field goals, but thankfully for the Tide this game will not be anywhere near close enough for another miracle to cost them a win.  A.J. McCarron finishes his career with one final W.  OU: 10--Ala: 35

 Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: If you like offense.... Will ANYONE get a stop?  The Buckeyes are littered with injuries/scratches (but thankfully, Shazier, the only real defensive player, will be play for lots of money).  This game is going to come down to: Is Clemson, gonna Clemson?  Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins should have their way with the Buckeye defense, but let's not forget the Miller and Hyde should do the same to the Tiger defense.  Mistakes will right the headlines.  Miller CANNOT turn the ball over.  The Buckeyes game plan should be to never get rattled and hold onto the ball at all costs.  Boyd makes a few key mistakes as Buckeyenation gives the traditional homefield advantage.  Just stay the course and the Bucks can steal a shootout.  Clem: 48--OSU: 52
Hoying: For all you who hated the defense down the stretch, I have good news: it seems like none of them will be there for this game. No Roby, no Grant, no Bryant, no Spence. I'd be worried, but after watching the Silver Bullets give up 34 to Connor Cook and Michigan State I wasn't really counting on the D in this one. Fortunately, it appears the only thing that can stop Ohio State's rushing attack is Tom Herman's play calling. Just run Hyde until Clemson stops him, and if the game ends first, all the better. I'm really worried about this one, more than any other this year (including both Michigan teams) but in the end, the coaching differential between Urban and Dabo should make up for any trouble stopping Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins. Clem: 45--OSU: 49
Seeberg:  I am absolutely, positively terrified to pick this game.  It is a distinct possibility that the Buckeyes will need to win this game to save the B1G from the ignominious distinction of an 0fer in the bowl season.  When combined with the MAC's dismal performance, the Midwest will suddenly be the national laughing stock of college football.  This game hinges on exactly what went wrong in the two games against the teams from up north:  play-calling.  We have the ability to score 60 on Clemson without much resistance, but if we call nothing but behind-the-line passes and bombs with nothing in between, and take the ball out of Hyde's hands, we may be in trouble.  On the defensive side of the ball, just sitting back against a turnover-prone Tajh Boyd and Clemson would be a HUGE mistake, and hopefully they take some cues from the Gamecocks who forced SIX turnovers in their season finale (five while the game was still in question) by bringing consistent pressure and not sitting 12 yards off of every wideout.  I fear that we will sit off and allow Boyd to pick us apart, primarily due to the plethora of defensive starters who may miss the game.  I actually fielded a call from Luke Fickell asking if I was available for his secondary in emergency situations (hey, I had a pick-six once, true story!  So what if it was in middle school?).  Sadly, my eligibility has expired, so Fickell will be forced to make due.  It won't be pretty, but the D forces a couple of turnovers to offset the points given up, and Braxton and Hyde pound out a win in the fourth quarter.  Clem: 38--OSU: 45

BCS National Championship: Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: Yes, the Noles schedule has been weak. Yes, the Tigers have some premier wins (albeit on miracle plays).  I've watched a lot of FSU this year, and I don't see a glaring weakness on this team.  The offense is a force behind Jameis and the best trio of wideouts in the country (Shaw, Greene, Benjamin), not to mention 2 great RBs and the Golden Cub at TE.  The defense is better than most know which has led to the enormous margins of victory.  Auburn has a fantastic running game but the defense is suspect.  Also, I don't think Marshall's arm can defeat the Nole secondary.  FSU will be the 2nd best defense the Tigers have faced--and the offense is MUCH better than Alabama.  There will be no decided advantage in Pasadena for the crowd, but the Noles have been as good on the road as at home.  The Tigers need that homefield bump for the miracles to occur.  This game reminds me of last year with one team leading a charmed existence facing a juggernaut of a complete team...we know how that ended.  FSU: 45--Aub: 31
Hoying: At first glance, this looks like a total mismatch. The Noles have been a veritable juggernaut on both sides of the ball, blasting through their schedule with ease. The Tigers won 2 games on miracle plays and were thoroughly outclassed by LSU. But, at the risk of dredging up ugly old arguments, who has Florida State played? The Miami team that just got obliterated by Louisville? The Maryland team that lost to Marshall? Bethune-Cookman? The Clemson win still looks nice, but if Ohio State gives them the West Virginia treatment on Friday night, Seminole fans might start getting nervous. Auburn has dealt with adversity, and they feature the nation's top rushing attack (sigh), but Jameis Winston is just too good and too consistent to let the Heisman jinx affect him. Congrats, Chief. FSU: 31--Aub: 30
Seeberg:  With apologies to Clemson fans, this is easily the best test the Seminoles have seen all year.  Auburn's ground game rarely turns the ball over and the Tigers (Auburn Tigers, that is) will not beat themselves and they will score TDs, not just settle for field goals.  That said, barring a Troy Smith-esque Heisman jinx debacle (or a celebratory ankle sprain following a kickoff-return TD), Jameis Winston and FSU are more explosive on offense than Alabama and every bit as talented on D.  Auburn scores 28 again, just as they did against 'Bama until the miracle FG-return, but FSU scores more, and Chief has his national title, albeit with the garnet and gold instead of the scarlet and gray.  FSU: 45--Aub: 28

Grading the Bucks--Week 2 UCF

Many were frustrated with the 15 point win against the Golden Knights, but I would posit that UCF was the 4-5 toughest opponent on our schedule.  With that being said, there are still many issues that need to be worked out.  I think the game was better than most starry-eyed Buckeye fans thought, but this is not a world beater of a team.  It's a very good team, but not elite...yet.

Offense: B

The Knights made Braxton put on a show to beat them which is not what OSU needed.  I still firmly believe that the backs are being criminally under-utilized.  Braxton has learned the safe underneath throws, but he needs to be able to challenge the safeties deep to keep the secondary honest (the interception was just gross).  I haven't seen enough of that which will lead to some jumped routes against a better team.  Receiver execution was good enough.  The run-blocking (both the line and the second level blocking of the receivers) has been fantastic.  This appears to be our strength which is why I'm confused that we don't run a little more.  Finally, the dynamism of Miller's running ability is unquestioned...but he cannot tote the rock that often.  His 'ouchy' nature will catch up with us if we don't start to take it easy on him.

Defense: C+

Only 16 points given up, but we were fortunate.  Orhian Johnson played a spectacular game, and probably single-handedly cost UCF another 7-10 points.  The secondary still has plenty of issues and it just gets thinner with no Travis Howard (even though, I don't have much respect for his abilities).  I'm more concerned about the defensive line.  We have total studs on the line, but we're getting little to no pressure.  More concerning to me, was the lack of strong tackling that allowed the Golden Knights to develop a running game.  That can't happen if these lineman are as strong as advertised.  I gave a pass against Miami (OH) because of the game-plan.  UCF ran a more traditional offense and we needed turnovers to keep a 2 score lead--can't happen at THE Ohio State University vs. this UCF team.

Special Teams: A-

Good punting, good coverage, good kicking.  The blocked PAT pushes them to an A-.  Not too much to discuss but I liked what I saw.

Coaching: B-

I get what Urban is doing, but going for a 4th and 1 is a bit risky on your side of the field early on.  Yes, we're Ohio State.  Yes, we should get it. Yes, it's a culture change.  But if you go,  you better have a good playcall and you'd better get it.  UCF is not a scrub team (no matter what the media tells you).  I'm ok rolling the dice, but that went a little far.  The second time we went for it, I firmly believe Meyer did it as a message.  I'm convinced that, had we not converted, the entire backup offense would have been in next series.  Sending messages is one thing...against Miami (OH), but this is not a nobody team.  Also, if you go for it and you want to change the old culture, don't run a simple off tackle run.  Be creative!  Braxton's use is a major coaching issue as well.  Meyer said this week that he didn't want Miller running more than 12-13 times in a game (on a called play).  Miller has QB runs on 27 plays! This is way too high for a guy who has never played a complete season in his high-school or college career.  He is our best player, and you have to use him; just don't overuse him.  He won't be able to take those hits from MSU.

Overall: B

Many locals have crushed the Buckeyes for the 'tight' win.  I still think it was a nice hard-fought win, but there are things that need to be cleaned up.  The margin isn't the concern in my mind.  The concern was the overall level of execution.  I don't see any issues over the next 2 weeks so A performances are expected.  If we play like we did this week, we won't be Sparty.  Please, stop talking about these ridiculous national championship scenarios and focus on each game at a time. 

Week 2 Picks: BOOOOOORRRIIIIINNNNGGG!!!

After a relative snoozefest in week 1 that showed the Wolverines getting trounced and essentially limited those in serious national title contention to about 7 teams, one would think that this week must be more exciting....nope.  The 'big games' this week are some of the weakest I've ever seen.  Here's hoping for one GT-VT thriller because these games look awful.

Standings
1. Draper                     4-0 (1-0 upset)
1. Schweinfurth            4-0 (1-0 upset--he copied me)
3. Hoying                     3-1 (0-1 upset)
4. Auer                        0-0 (0-0 upset)

Games
Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: The epic Gameday matchup that no one cares about.  Yes, it's TAMU's intro to the SEC, but Florida was embarassing in week one.  This being on the picks shows how much these games suck.  The Aggies week 1 game was postponed so we know very little about what to expect.  I do know, however, that the Gators looked terrible.  I expect the Aggies to win the SEC opener against a hapless UF offense. Which team will suck more? UF: 10--TAMU: 20
Auer: UF was able to earn valuable experience in last week's close win over Bowling Green. A&M will have a tough time game-planning for a team without a quarterback too. With an inexperienced QB for the Aggies playing at home under the microscope, it will not be an easy game. UF: 31--TAMU: 13
Hoying:  Two teams, no quarterback.  If you watched football last week, you saw a Florida team with no offense almost lose to a Bowling Green juggernaut with no kicker.  You also probably wondered where Texas A&M was.  (Just kidding, no one cares about Texas A&M.)  This strikingly mediocre program is going to get a rude awakening after jumping conferences to the SEC, but it's not going to be at the hands of the Gators.  Freshman Aggie QB Johnny Manziel leads his team to a victory and adds another burning coal under Florida coach Will Muschamp's hot seat.  UF: 13--A&M: 20
Schweinfurth: We are about to see if a team built to play in the Big 12 can survive in the SEC.  Texas A&M's offense over the last few years has been meh and the defense is a Big 12 defense.  I expect emotions to carry TAMU for a while, but in the end the Gators will prevail in the end (and maybe give the UF media something to talk about other than Urban).  UF: 35--TAMU: 14

Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Notre Dame had a great week one showing in Ireland, but Purdue is a sleeper in the Big Ten (for the hundredth straight year).  That being said, I believe the talent on the Irish is just simply better than Purdue.  The QB situation for the Boilers is a mess.  I expect the Irish to capture a convincing win that will propel them into the Top 5 (in Lou Holtz's rankings) before they face the Spartans. PU: 20--ND: 37
Auer: Admittedly not going with logic here. Notre Dame put the smack down on Navy WITHOUT their starting QB and RB... the Boilers put the smack down on EKU without their starter... but used former starter Marve. I hate Notre Dame, and somehow Marve will start and pull of the HUGE upset. PU: 23--ND: 21
Hoying:  This is a dangerous game for Purdue, mostly because they're vastly inferior to Notre Dame.  Don't get me wrong; the Boilermakers were one of five B1G teams (Ohio State, Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State) to not embarrass themselves last weekend, but the globetrotting Irish are not exactly Eastern Kentucky.  Senior Purdue QB Caleb TerBush will pose a bigger threat to the Irish defense than Navy's non-existent pass game, but Notre Dame's balanced attack is more than capable of piling even more points on a weak Purdue defense.  PU: 17--ND: 34
Schweinfurth: I guess Notre Dame is good (for Notre Dame as of late).  The Irish offense has another year under Brian Kelly and should be making strides.  It showed last week in the drubbing Navy took last week.  Purdue is a bit better than Navy and it will show on the field.  Purdue's offense put up impressive numbers against Eastern Kentucky but Robert Marve (yes, I expect Marve to start) won't fare as well against the Irish D.  Notre Dame wins in a bit of a shootout.  PU:28--ND:45

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ UCLA Bruins
Draper: Martinez had a solid 5 TD performance against Southern Miss but the Black Shirts were a little soft.  UCLA showed last week that their young team behind Brett Hundley can score some points.  I think the Bruins will put up some points but the Huskers snag the last score.  Expect a score fest in LA with the B1G grabbing a nice close win.  Neb: 41--UCLA: 38
Auer: Nebraska's flakiness may start to rival that of what used to belong to the Spartans. Offensively they were impressive against Southern Mississippi, but the defensive spunk was missing. UCLA is not without talent, starting QB Brett Hundley was impressive in the first win of the season (and he's really good in the video game), and this is the home opener for the Bruins. Nebraska must come ready to play, this will quite possibly be the best game of the weekend. Neb: 34--UCLA: 32
Hoying:  Is UCLA back?  The Bruins managed to turn some heads after piling up 646 yards in their last game.  However, that was against...Rice.  And UCLA also gave up 24 points to...Rice, none of which occurred during garbage time.  To be fair, Nebraska had a similar performance last week against Southern Mississippi, but Nebraska's been pretty solid the last few seasons.  The burden of proof is on UCLA, and it'll take a win against an opponent of this level to put them back on the map.  Problem is, Nebraska's offense is going to be tough to stop, even if star RB Rex Burkhead isn't ready to go.  Huskers win close.  Neb: 38--UCLA: 34
Schweinfurth: Both Nebraska and UCLA's offenses showed up big time last week.  Martinez with his 5 TDs and UCLA with 600+ yards of offense.  No Burkhead means this game will be closer than it should be.  This one will be high scoring and very entertaining to watch.  Neb: 49--UCLA: 35

UCF Golden Knights @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: The Bucks looked pretty solid in week one but the secondary remained a little questionable.  That being said, Dysert for the Redhawks was a pretty savvy experienced QB.  UCF is a sexy pick as a threat but I don't see them hanging with the Bucks.  They're a nice CUSA team, but they're not ready for the big time.  Miller's passing can only improve and his running has already been electric so I see 4 TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) with Hyde chipping in 2.  Guiton comes in late to mop up.   The defense will relax here and there leading Coach Coombs to kill a kitten on the sideline--never let it happen again...  UCF: 16--OSU: 48
Auer: With the rainy forecast, and UCF's somewhat existent run game, this will possibly be a bit closer than anyone expects. Ohio State is a superior team all-around, but after a great opening weekend, there is bound to be a bit of a hangover. UCF: 22--OSU: 37
Hoying:  Welcome to the Ineligi-bowl.  Buckeye Nation is breathing a little easier after last week's coming out party, and the cream puff feast rolls merrily along with fellow bowl-ineligible UCF coming to town.  The Golden Knights are fresh off a dismantling of terrible terrible Akron, but don't look for them to put up too much of a fight.  If the UCF receivers can hang onto a pass, the game might be close for a quarter, but this game should be ugly.  Like "ESPN's sideline eye candy now that Erin Andrews is gone" ugly.  UCF: 13--OSU: 48
Schweinfurth: It's said that a team's biggest improvement happens between weeks 1 and 2.  We are about to find out if that is true for the Buckeyes.  Miami's pass happy offense moved the ball well against the Bullets but UCF is not a pass happy offense.  This should be a good time for the defensive line to flex their muscles.  I would expect the OSU D to force 1 or 2 more turnovers and more special teams chaos created by the "Freak Show."  I also expect there to be a bit of jitters to start the game on offense again. But, like last week, once the O gets rolling, Miller and the boys are going to put up some numbers.  OSU is better and it will show.  UCF: 14--OSU: 52

Upset Special:
Draper: Out on a limb--Penn State over Virginia
Auer: Missouri over Georgia
Hoying: Iowa State over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Oregon State over Wisconsin