Week 4: Akron - City of Lights

 Standings:

1.) Seeberg 11-2 (1-2 upset)
1.) Draper 11-2 (1-2 upset)
3.) Hoying 9-4 (2-1 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-4 (2-1 upset)

Neutral site games are stupid. 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: Let's get pumped for this one! A horribly underwhelming Irish team faces the standard fatguy football of the Badgers....but it's in Soldier Field! Why? SHUT UP THAT'S WHY! The Irish have a tendency to squeak by in games they should trounce the opponent then wake up in a game you don't expect them to win.  But this year....they just look terrible.  Wisconsin is super boring and couldn't outlast Penn State, but I think they'll be ok to end the outside shot of playoffs that the Domers hold.  Kelly waits another week to take the record from Rockne.  ND: 17 -- Wisc: 24

Hoying: Remember when Notre Dame opened the season with that epic victory over a seemingly resurgent Florida State. Yeah, that seems like a million years ago now that FSU followed up that performance with a capitulation to Jacksonville State and a blowout loss to Wake Forest. Notre Dame, for their part, hasn't lost a game yet but needed a last minute TD to get by Toledo after escaping the Noles in overtime. I don't trust the Irish at all; they can't run the ball and they replaced Playoff QB Ian Book with some castoff from a second-tier Big Ten school. And, speak of the devil, here now come the Badgers, with their own passing problems. At least the Badgers can run the ball again after a puzzlingly bad ground game in 2020 (except against Michigan, lol). I was tempted to write off UW after their ugly opening loss to Penn State, but last week showed that the PSU defense is for real, in a way that Notre Dame definitively is not. Remember how Alabama ground Notre Dame into paste in the [Rose] Bowl last year in the most boring way possible? Get ready for some deja vu in this one. ND: 10--UW: 21

Schweinfurth: For all the expectations Notre Dame had this year, they have been very underwhelming. The Irish defense has struggled and the offense doesn't have much identity. Wisconsin knows who they are and are going to bludgeon the inside of Notre Dame defensive line. This game is going to be a dirty, knockdown game. Perfect for the Badgers: ND: 17--UW: 21
Seeberg: Oh the irony here.  Former Wiscy QB doing Wiscy QB like things (you know, like sub-50% completion rates) against his former squad.  You would expect some solid motivation there, but the Golden Domers just aren't as good as their ranking would indicate.  Kinda like last year, and the year before, and damn near every year from Charlie Weis onward.  Not likely a pretty game here, but score one for the B1G.  ND: 13--UW: 20

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Draper: I'm slightly intrigued here...but only slightly.  Arkansas ran Texas out of the building, but that's because Texas is back (to being bad).  A&M was the chosen one to take down Bama...but....they've been super meh so far.  While Arkansas was flashy with the smashmouth football, I don't think they've played a real team yet.  Now, the Aggies are going to have just enough dumb to make this close, but I think they pull it out in one that is closer than the experts think.  TAMU: 30--Ark: 23

Hoying: When are we going to stop using Texas as a measuring stick for other teams? Ever since Colt McCoy's bones were ground to make Nick Saban's bread back in 2009, the Longhorns haven't had fewer than 3 losses in any non-COVID shortened season, and I don't put a great deal of stock in Arkansas punting UT back to Austin back in week 2. I mean, good for Arkansas that they aren't awful anymore, and LOL at Texas in their preview of what a nightmare SEC life will be, but Texas A&M has been living in SEC world since 2012, and they haven't lost to the Hogs in 9 meetings since joining up. The Aggies haven't been the sharpest tools in the shed this season either, struggling way, way too hard against Colorado while the Hogs were pummeling Texas, but this is an A&M team that barely missed out on the Playoff last year, and I don't think Arkansas has closed the gap quite yet. TAMU: 24--Ark: 21

Schweinfurth: To be honest, I really haven't watched much of these two teams. I do know that TAMU doesn't look like a team that argued to be the #4 seed last year. Arkansas will make this one interesting, and I might have picked them if this was at home (stupid neutral site games). Jimbo squeaks another one out. TAMU: 28--Ark: 27
Seeberg:  Well, the Aggies started the season with a lot of hype, the team of the season that can challenge Bama in the west (LOL).  Three pedestrian wins later, including a 10-7 snoozefest over mediocre Colorado, and that moniker is threatening to be replaced by the Razorbacks, buoyed by a win over still-not-back Texas.  I don't really trust either of these teams much, particularly with a young QB Calzadas at TAMU taking over for just his second start, only mustering 34 points against New Mexico.  The unit I trust most, however, is the Aggies' D giving up just 17 points through 3 weeks.  Forcing a couple turnovers and winning the field position battle should settle the young QB enough to sneak out a W.  TAMU: 24--Ark: 17

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: RIVALRY RENEWED!! Schiano enters this Titanic struggle of undefeateds in a most un-Buttgers fashion.  The Scarlet Knights believe they are going to win, but Syracuse this is not.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not sold on the maize and blue yet.  This game provides a level 2 test for the Wolverines (more than Rutgers has been since....), but I don't see the Knights ready to break through yet.  Michigan has been running the same "Look at how good we are against crappy teams" (wouldn't mind if OSU tried this in 2021), but can they up the game when the talent gets closer to even.  No, Rutgers doesn't have Michigan level talent, but it's closer than Northern Illinois.  The Wolverines will win convincingly, but Schiano won't let the team get destroyed. RU: 17--UM: 42 

Hoying: I'll admit, this matchup was a lot more intriguing on paper before Rutgers' best defender decided to have a drive-by paintball shooting and got suspended from the team. Rutgers ground out a steady road win over Syracuse, sandwiched between two obliterations of lesser opponents. Greg Schiano is starting to recapture the magic, and the Scarlet Knights aren't a gimme game in the Big Ten East anymore (more on that next week). That being said, Rutgers does not appear to be quite on the same level as their oldest Big Ten rival, as the Wolverines are on an absolute tear to start the 2021 season. Yeah, they're not playing great teams, and yeah, McNamara appears to be your run-of-the-mill Harbaugh quarterback, but, to put it mildly, the running game is going to be a bit of a problem. The Wolverines have two running backs on pace for 1,000 yards, with Blake Corum within striking distance of doubling that mark. Michigan hasn't averaged 5 yards per carry in any Harbaugh era season. This year they're averaging 7. We've seen hot starts turn sour for the maize and blue under Harbaugh before, but if this squad can escape Camp Randall next week, they might not taste defeat until at least November. Michigan keeps rolling for now. RSUNJ: 14--UM: 35

Schweinfurth: Schiano keeps building and building at New Jersey's state school, but Harbooger just has more talent at Michigan. Look, the Wolverines can run the ball and have an identity. That much has been established and I think that's how this game will go. I can totally see Michigan getting a decent lead and the Rutgers busting out the trick plays. It's what they do. Michigan wins, but Buttgers scores some stupid TDs late. RU: 24--UM: 35
Seeberg:  Are...are the Wolverines back?  Certainly seems more likely than the Longhorns at least.  Bringing Schiano back to Rutgers where he had them up to #2 in the country at one point (yes, you read that right) was pure genius and it's already starting to pay dividends.  He needs another year or two to fill out the roster his way, however, and last year is looking more and more like a fluke for the maize and blue.  I don't like it either.  I FINALLY got the Cooper-year jitters out of my system and now they're competent again?  Damn.  RU: 20--UM: 34

Akron Zips @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 
Draper: Ok....Akron is bad.  Like really, REALLY bad.  So bad that Ryan Day has chosen to rest his starter in the game.  This is an interesting move as it doesn't happen in college very often, but I think it's pretty savvy.  Look, OSU has struggled in the first 3 games (even though Oregon is really good), but you can see that Stroud isn't quite right.  Part of it is mental (I'm sure he got death threats and the like from idiots on social media) but there is also a physical component with his shoulder.  The QB room for OSU is stacked, and this will give the staff some time to test these prospects under fire while not risking much (...hopefully).  Coach Day should (in my opinion) completely throw all support behind C.J., but let him rest.  There will be more internet coaches that will tell him it's time to change QBs, but this is an opportunity to learn without crushing your starter.  Trust Henderson, Olave, and Wilson to make explosive plays and hope the defense can get a little better each week.  The line is still a monstrous 48.5 points.  OSU could cover it, but I think the dogs will be called off early.  I'm just hoping it's not raining :(.  Akron: 10--OSU: 52
Hoying: I can't get a bead on whether this season of Buckeye football has been weirder than recent years. 2018 had the sudden and unexpected problems on defense and in the running game, which we never really figured out and which never really went away. 2015 had an offense largely intact from piling up big points in a National Championship run suddenly grind to a halt, only to reawaken once it was too late. And of course 2020 speaks for itself. But something seems really off this year. Multiple players are unavailable for mysterious reasons, quarterback play is wildly inconsistent, defensive play is consistently awful, and there just seems to be an air of general unease, like everyone's not pulling in the same direction. At least we seem to have figured out the running game for the next 3 years (heck, let's get Trey Henderson enough NIL money to stick around for 4). The QB situation will be fascinating to watch over the coming weeks. It shouldn't (SHOULDN'T) be much of a task for McCord or Miller to put up big numbers against an awful Akron team, but I can't imagine that will move the needle from Day's commitment to Stroud as the starter. When Braxton Miller was nursing a knee injury in 2013, Kenny Guiton put up JV-mode video game numbers against FAMU after rolling Cal the week before, and then he disappeared for the rest of his career. But when Justin Zwick went down against Iowa in 2004, Troy Smith seized the job and didn't look back until the Heisman Trophy Trust called his name. For the fourth time this young season, I have no idea what to expect from this game, other than I don't foresee a Buckeye loss as a possibility. Hopefully the ball will find a few more receivers' hands (welcome back, Chris Olave), and Henderson can cement his spot as one of the top running backs in the country. And defense? Use this opportunity to try everything else you've got in the bag. You're going to need to be ready for Rutgers next week (not a joke). Akron: 17--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: This game just got spicy. I've been saying it for two weeks. I think Stroud's shoulder is worse off than the coaching staff is letting on. You don't miss some fall camp days for no reason. Props to CJ for battling through, but sitting him for this game is the right call. Let's be honest, the Buckeyes could tell Akron they are running every play and still get at least 5 yards per carry. I am very interested to see how Kyle McCord and Jack Miller look (yes, Akron is bad). Guys will be open, but if they can hit Olave and Wilson deep and in stride, we may have a conversation here. Defensively, get the pass rush right and tighten up the zones a bit more. There is a huge problem if Akron throws for more than 200 yards. Score early and often, get the starters out and stay healthy. Akron: 13--OSU: 59
Seeberg:  From week one I had my concerns about Stroud, watching him roll his arm over periodically, as if something was tweaked in his shoulder.  Nice to know I'm not paranoid, and definitely a good idea to rest him against the MAC bottom feeder.  Olave going catchless last week, to me, was a function of Stroud's arm not feeling great, the fact that he locks in on Wilson a lot, and a stupid holding penalty.  Getting CO2 going again is crucial, and the play action game should work as we are capable of running for a half-marathon's worth of yards on the Zips.  Run it early, throw it in the middle, rest everyone late.  Tyreke Smith back should aid the front 4 getting pressure also.  Drop 7, work some coverages and keep somebody under 20 please?  Akron: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: NC State over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg:  South Florida over BYU