Thursday, October 17, 2019

Week 8: Kickin' in the Front Seat, Sittin' in the Back Seat

Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 21-3 (2-5 upset)
2.) Hoying 20-4 (3-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 19-5 (1-6 upset)
3.) Draper 19-5 (1-6 upset)

Games on Friday are no fun, fun, fun, fun. But with the Saturday slate that follows, you'll still be looking forward to the weekend.

Oregon Ducks @ Washington Huskies
Draper: What to do with the Pac12? Sadly, I don't know much about this matchup, and quite frankly, I don't really care.  Justin Herbert is supposedly one of the top picks in the upcoming draft, but I haven't seen much to get excited about (in all fairness, I only saw him vs. Auburn). This game is likely for control of the North (and one of the top games out west this season).  Interestingly enough, these teams actually play defense.  I think I'll roll with the Huskies at home here, but spin the Pac12 week of destiny (suck).  Ore: 17 -- Wash: 20
Hoying: #PacAfterDawn? For once there's a game of consequence on the West Coast that won't be put to bed before I am. After the USC juggernaut exited with Pete Carroll these two programs have played hot potato with the Pac-12's not so serious championship hopes. Yes, believe it or not, the Pac-12 used to go to the playoff and even made it to the title game in its inaugural year (I forget what happened then). Chip Kelly and Mark Helfrich would be aghast at what passes for football in Eugene these days, as the Ducks lead the nation in the advanced metrics...on defense?!? The Huskies are no slouch on D either, giving up only 20 and 23 points in their 2 losses, but this hints at another problem: they scored less than 20 and 23 points in those losses. And now they're facing the nation's top D.... Washington QB Jacob Eason has been a pleasant surprise so far this year but I don't think he's going to outduel Oregon's Justin-somehow-more-draftable-than-Tua-Herbert. Ore: 20--UW: 13
Schweinfurth: This comment will apply to this and the game below: PAC-12 games start too late for me to care about them. I have no reason to get invested in a game if it ends after midnight eastern. With that said, Oregon's only loss (and it seems everyone forgot) was to Auburn (who everyone has overrated all year). I honestly have no feel for this game, simply because I haven't watched either team this year. I guess I'll take the Ducks. Ore: 24--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Along with Utah (see below) these two were seen as the class of the league entering 2019.  UW has struggled significantly and Oregon has been all but forgotten after a tragic Clemsoning-esque loss to Auburn in week 1.  Believe it or not, the Ducks haven't allowed anyone more than 7 points since that loss, including a 45-3 pasting of Colorado last week.  Meanwhile, the Huskies are surprisingly inconsistent for a Chris Pedersen coached squad and have already dropped a home game to Cal last month.  Oddly, supposed top-10 pick Justin Herbert hasn't done much to improve his draft stock this seaosn.  However, defense travels kids, and the Ducks will back south with a win Saturday night.  Ore: 24--UW: 13

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Utah Utes
Draper: Another Pac12 game? I'm not buying into Herm Edwards's Devils, but he does play to win the game.  Utah was the early favorite in the south and they likely remain so.  USC snuck one on the Utes on a weird Friday game but the maroon and gold doesn't really inspire fear (even if they are the Devils).  Utah is at home so I'llstick with the home team again.  ASU: 17 -- Utah: 31 
Hoying: #PacAfterDinner? Yes, I know there's a lot of West Coast Bias at Let's Go Bucks! this week, but the conference is actually really fun and balanced, without a real clunker in the mix (except you, UCLA). And these two teams, much like the ones described above, are defensively minded, especially Herm Edwards's Sun Devils, who seem to play every possession with an NFL mindset. Utah was the trendy Pac pick before the season started, and they've looked the part outside of a strange loss at USC that nobody could've seen coming (*cough*). They've also played a hot bag of farts so far (USC excepted, maybe), whereas ASU has already made the tough trip to East Lansing and visited Berkeley and escaped with wins both times. I think the edge here is a lot closer than people think but I'm still riding with the home team. ASU: 17--Utah: 19
Schweinfurth: Hey look, a PAC-12 team I have actually watched play. Unfortunately that team was Arizona State. The Sun Devils know how to muck up a game and make their opponents play their style. This game just has more of an OSU vs. MSU feel too it. I'll take the Utes pulling away late. ASU: 13--Utah: 35
Seeberg:  Oh, great, another PAC-12 game with...implications?  Utah may have as good a chance as any team out west of sneaking into the playoffs if everybody east of the Mississippi begins to beat each other down, but it's still unlikely.  Is it time to trust the Devils?  Honestly if this game were being played there I might pick the upset.  I just don't see it though.  ASU has two wins better than anything Utah can produce, but with their goals still technically in front of them I don't see the Utes dropping one at home.  They get Cal and Washington after this, and we all know they'll slip in one of those, but keep those playoff hopes flickering for your conference for now!  ASU: 16--Utah: 27

Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Draper: Can Michigan pull out some hope for the Maize and Blue faithful? Even though they have played like a high school team lately, I truly don't believe in PSU in the long run.  Can Shea Patterson lead the resurgence against an overrated Nittany Lion squad? Wait, you're counting on Shea Patterson....on the road....in a white out...  No.  I think the narrative is going to continue to gain traction that PSU is the biggest threat to the Buckeyes after this week but I'd put them behind the Badgers and the Wolverines even though I think the home field advantage is enough to make up for the gap in talent.  While Michigan went back to the smiling side of the scoreboard over the last few weeks, no one is impressed with the play.  I think Mount Nittany is too much and the Wolverines continue the age old mantra of "there's always next year".  UM: 10 -- PSU: 20 
Hoying: How about that Big Ten? Four 6-0 teams for the first time since 1904! Three of them are off this week (Ohio State visits Northwestern; Wisconsin travels to Illinois, and Minnesota descends upon Rutgers) but the 4th is looking for some sweet revenge against a truly frustrating opponent. For all of Michigan's struggles over the last decade or so the only UM coach to have any trouble with the Lions was RichRod (0-3). That being said, Saquon & Co. crushed the Wolverines in their White Out game two years ago. Penn State's team was decidedly better in 2017 (see, again, Saquon Barkley, also Trace McSorley, Mike Gesicki), but I'm not sure about Meatchicken. On the plus side, no John O'Korn this time, but we still haven't seen any spark from this offense other than running all over hapless Illinois. I'll believe Michigan is ready to turn their season around when I see it, and I don't think I'm going to see it anytime soon. Cheer up, UM fans. Only 3 weeks until the Maryland game. UM: 13--PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: I really feel like Penn State is ripe for an upset here. If the Wolverines had a pulse I would pull the trigger. Penn State struggled against Pitt and Iowa but managed to do just enough. I think that trend will continue. I can't wait to see how Shea Patterson turns the ball over this week. Penn State, but close. UM: 9--PSU: 14
Seeberg:  Dare I say it?  Have the maize and blue improved the past few weeks?  Tough to say.  After the flat-out embarassment against Wiscy they throttled Buttgers, slipped past Iowa (in a game not all that dissimilar from the one Penn State played against the Hawkeyes) and inexplicably went up 28-0 on Illinois before finding themselves in a game late.  I don't know if that signals improvement, but I do know that at night in Not-So-Happy Valley is not a place a mediocre team wants to find itself.  This Nittany Lion squad can't score it like they used to, but they can sure stop you, easily as well as TTUN.  Time for the new-new UM offense to show itself.  I know, I laughed at that sentence too.  First to 17 wins!  UM: 10--PSU: 17 

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats
Draper: Oh boy....a Friday night game... Why...WHY would you agree to this if you're Ohio State? Not because it's a concern, but because it's just dumb.  There is no reason for this other than a gimmick money grab or seeking TV exposure.  OSU doesn't need a gimmick to command the nation.  Ok, now that I've finished my old man rant, on to the game.  There is no reason for this to be anything different from the past 30 years (sans the 04 debacle).  The talent disparity is enormous and Buckeye Nation will still travel, even on a Friday. Northwestern had their nice fluky season last year, but the hopes and dreams of a repeat have all but been squelched.  Can Day keep the kids focused? I think so.  Fields reminds the national press that there is another QB outside of Tuscaloosa, Baton Rouge, and Norman to be watching for the Heisman as he continues his dual threat campaign.   Fitzgerald won't let his guys quit, so I'll expect a late score, but it will be after most of the nation has turned off the TV for the night.  Oh yeah, the last Buckeye game ended with the backdoor cover to end all others with Joey Bosa mauling Northwestern on the last play.   I wonder if we have a guy that can do that this time....to break 50? Chase Young gets 2.5 sacks and a FF to continue his push to the number 1 NFL prospect in 2020.  OSU: 52--NU: 10
Hoying: Unless you are one of 47,130 very unlucky individuals on the evening of October 2, 2004, or you've been going to OSU games since the early 1970's, you haven't seen Ohio State lose to Northwestern without a screen between you and the game. If you're making the trip to Evanston this Friday, don't expect that to change anytime soon. This is not a trap game; traps have to have the potential to be sprung. And this Wildcat offense is deep in hibernation, averaging an anemic 14.4 points per game and clawing above 20 points just once, against UNLV. Jim Tressel lost a total of one game like this in his tenure (2009 Purdue) and Urban never did (neither did Fickell for that matter). This is a game you don't lose without boatloads of turnovers and flat out falling down on defense, and the Buckeyes don't seem to be doing either of those this year. Worry about Maryland if you're desperate to find a trap game. Worry about Wisconsin and Penn State if you want a game this team might actually lose. This ain't it, chief. OSU: 38--NU: 0
Schweinfurth: The outcome of this game shouldn't be a doubt. The Bucks are healthy and rested after the physical game against MSU. Why am I confident? This defensive coaching staff has shown the ability to make changes on the fly and minimizing the big plays. The Wildcat's offense is just flat bad. I could see the first quarter going similar to last week with Fields and Co. struggling to get points. This Buckeye team is just too talented and motivated to let this be a let down game. I'll give Northwestern a garbage TD but this game should never be in doubt. OSU: 42--NU: 7
Seeberg:  Again, a night game on the road against an inferior-in-every-way-on-paper conference opponent.  What could possibly go wrong?  Oh yeah, every GD thing.  This season, this team, however, feels different.  The kind of guarded optimism this team is professing to possess is working wonders.  Dobbins tore MSU up and Jonathan Taylor struggled (a stat that bodes well for our matchup with the Badgers next week).  Fields is humming right along, still holding the ball too long on occasion but rarely forcing the action because he knows he doesn't have to with this group of WRs.  Northwestern, meanwhile, has a very good defense and, well, technically by rule they are fielding an offense but it scarcely qualifies.  Just getting to double digits against this Buckeye squad would be a win- but don't hold your breath purple nation.  Lots of scarlet and gray in the Chicago area will make their presence known.  With two weeks to prepare, there is 0 reason this game should be competitive for the majority of the second half.  Bucks big.  OSU: 38--NU: 6

Upset Special
Draper: South Carolina over Florida
Hoying: Brigham Young over Boise State
Schweinfurth: Louisville over Clemson (CLEMSONING IS BACK!)
Seeberg: Oklahoma State over Baylor