New Year's Six - Roses are Red, Oranges are Blue

 Final Standings:

1.) Hoying 40-18 (5-8 upset)
1.) Draper 40-18 (4-9 upset)
1.) Seeberg 40-18 (3-10 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 39-19 (3-10 upset)

What do Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson have in common? They're all teams I would much rather see win the National Championship than a certain #2 seed that will not be named in this introduction. At least down seasons for the Buckeyes still end up in Pasadena, and not in the Valero Alamo Bowl or the *shudder* Cheez-It Bowl.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 30

Peach Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: Hooray! The game with all the stars sitting out.  Michigan State is really nothing spectacular, but losing a running back is very different from losing a Heisman finalist QB.  The Spartans should be able to rally around their boring style without losing too much of a step.  I don't know if I can say the same for Pitt and the loss of Kenny Pickett.  Pat Narduzzi comes up short against the team that made him.  MSU: 20 -- Pitt: 17
Hoying: What's easier to replace: a star running back or a star quarterback? Which one do you see sitting out more series on an average Saturday afternoon? Sure, backup Spartan RB Jordan Simmons is quite the dropoff from Kenneth Walker, but Pitt is starting a quarterback who has 14 attempts and has appeared in a total of 5 games this season. Michigan State's glaring flaw this year has been its pass defense, which means that their Achilles heel is effectively getting its dip in the Styx with Pickett moving on to the NFL a game early. Cardale Jones isn't swooping in to save the Panthers anytime soon. MSU: 31--Pitt: 20

Schweinfurth: Opt out game number one! Woo hoo! No Kennith Walker and no Kenny Pickett. Which is the bigger loss? I'll say Pickett. The Spartan should be able to move the ball without Walker. Minus, Pickett? I just don't think Pitt has a chance. MSU: 28--Pitt: 10
Seeberg:  As previously stated, this is a game that has severely lost its luster.  May be the most ho-hum matchup since the inception of the New Years' Six.  One team lost an elite QB, the other an elite RB...but QB is arguably the most important position in all of sports, so advantage Spartans, despite their miserable pass D.  Spartans keep the 2-0 (thus far, go MD!) B1G train rolling.  MSU: 31--Pitt: 23

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31

Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: The cartoon above contains my thoughts about this game.  Yeah, Cincinnati is fun and they have some players (especially in the defensive secondary), but this is Bama we're talking about (even though they've been 'disrespected all year according to their team'...).  Make no mistake that last year was a major rebuilding year...in which they had the Heisman winner and easily dispatched of a loaded OSU squad (albeit nothing like 2019's).  Jameson Williams headlines the offense.  UC will do everything to slow him down, and they just might....but there's always another 20 weapons.  The plucky Bearcats will start fired up, but it's Bama's world and we're just living in it.  UC: 20--Bama: 41

Hoying: Let's be honest: this year's Alabama looks a lot more like 2019's flawed squad than last year's impervious world-beater. That Auburn game was atrocious, and exposed a lot of issues with the Tide offense. Jameson Williams left that game earlier on a targeting call, and the Tide couldn't do anything thereafter until the last minute of the game. And now their only other WR, John Metchie, is out for the season with a torn ACL. With this setback, I don't see Alabama scoring enough points to complete a second set of back-to-back championships (spoilers for next week), but they have been given the tremendous gift of playing this year's Playoff impostor team in the semifinals. No, I'm not saying that Cincinnati didn't earn their spot this year (one of the biggest factors in their favor is that there isn't anyone else the Playoff could've plausibly taken instead), but they're not putting the same kind of athletes on the field as Bama, Georgia, or the Team Up North. Last year, Alabama got the gift game of playing Notre Dame in the Playoff. The year before, Oklahoma fell into LSU's lap. I don't expect this game to be quite as big as a wipeout as those, but Cincinnati is not on Alabama's level. Not yet. UC: 13--Bama: 27

Schweinfurth: There is a trophy involved, so you always pick Bama. Cincy is a nice story, and I am rooting for the Fightin' Ficks. The Tide seems to have seized on the second chance they got against Auburn and haven't looked back. Bama wins, but closer than you think. UC: 17--Bama: 24

Seeberg:  Gotta be honest- I just don't have it in me to break this game down.  Bama looked like hot garbage against it's rival and then absolutely pasted the best D in the country.  Bama by a million.  UC: 17--Bama: 38

Orange Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Gross, gross, gross....There isn't a team playing better football than the Wolverines right now.  The Dline is wreaking havoc, they're stuffing the run, and running exceptionally well.  However, the Dawgs defensive front will be the best they've faced all year (I wish I could say second best, but OSU had a rare 'down year' on the DLine).  If they can stop the run and pressure McNamara (which I think they will to an extent), it will come down to the UM pass rush and the ability to get home on a wheel of fortune QB.  UGA hasn't really beat anyone of note, but if they can keep this like the opening game against Clemson (painfully slow and boring), I think the superior athletes of Georgia pull it out.  OSU couldn't stop the run with questionable (at best) linebacker play.  If Georgia can contain Haskins and Corum (tall order), I think the come away with a victory.  UGA: 20 -- UM: 17
Hoying: It kills me to look at these Playoff matches because all of these teams are vulnerable. This is a top-3 weakest field in Playoff history, along with 2014 and 2017, and I believe the Buckeyes could really have done some damage, maybe even won the whole thing. Instead, it's the Team Up North getting their chance at immortality, and I'd give them more than a puncher's chance this year. At least, that would be the case if the matchups weren't all wrong in this game. All year long Georgia was supposed to be some sort of defensive juggernaut, but Alabama showed how a team could stretch the field and hit them for big plays. That is not the Wolverines' game at all. The Tide rushed for a mere 4.4 yards per carry (buoyed by 3 big runs from Bryce Young), doing their real damage burning the Bulldogs over and over again with everyone's favorite ring-chasing turncoat. Who's the Wolverines' big play threat? Cornelius Johnson? Andrel Anthony? I've got bad news for the dinosaurs calling plays for the Maize and Blue: running Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins into a brick wall over and over again isn't going to strike fear into either of the SEC Playoff teams this year (it'll flatten Cincinnati, though, so pray we don't see that matchup). Man, I wish we could've seen what Olave and Wilson could have done to these guys (Georgia, that is; we did get to see them scorch the Wolverines one last time). We'll have to settle for seeing Henderson, Smith-Njigba, Fleming, Harrison, Egbuka, and Stroud write their own script to close the book on the Bulldogs' title defense hopes next year. Bulldogs move one step closer to ending their 40-year drought. UGA: 20--UM: 13 

Schweinfurth: Michigan's strength is running the ball. Georgia's strength is stopping the run. Georgia has been a little suspect in the secondary, which McNamera could take advantage of if given time. There should be a lot of running in this game. The team who has to rely on their QB the most will lose. I'll believe Michigan is back if they ban beat Georgia. I just don't think it will happen. UGA: 24--UM: 21
Seeberg:  One-dimensional teams can't win the title...then again, I didn't expect the run first, second, and last Wolverines to even sniff the playoff to begin with.  Bama shredded the vaunted Bulldog D but Cade and Co. are not built quite the same so following that blueprint is unlikely.  Georgia may struggle to score against their solid defensive counterparts.  I also trust neither of these coaches in a big game for a litany of reasons.  Truth be told, it feels like a toss up, and when that happens I'm going with who I would rather win.  Hooray for another SEC rematch *facepalm*  UGA: 24--UM: 16

SATURDAY, JANUARY 1

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draper: Motivation defines bowl season.  This is one in which the Irish had their hearts ripped out by their former coach and his FAAMUHLY on his great dayuh, but the team respects and cares for their new young leader in Marcus Freeman.  On the other side, Jim Knowles bolted for greener pastures in Columbus.  The Pokes literally ended less than  a yard short of the playoff this year.  Will they enter the bowl season looking to prove they deserved a chance or will they curl up and die.  Honestly, Notre Dame has all the clout on their side with the chip on the shoulder, but they're missing one little thing.....a great team.  I don't know if they have the horses with Jack Coan at the helm and Kyle Hamilton on the sideline.  This is a dumb pick as I think Okie State will come in deflated and Freeman will give the Irish purpose, but I'm going to ride with Gundy here.  I think the talent is better on the Orange and Black sideline. ND: 24--OkSt: 31
Hoying: Hoying's first law of bowl picks: never pick the team with the missing coach. Yes, I know the future is here with ex-Buckeye Marcus Freeman hoping to finish what Brian Kelly started, but there's always a bit of friction during the transition. Of course, Oklahoma State is missing their star DC, as Jim Knowles is already making preparing his plans to stop Notre Dame with a different OSU. So I suppose the coaching situation is a bit of a wash. Let’s look to what the teams have done this season. Notre Dam’s looked fine, I guess, but I can’t point to a signature win on the season. They had one shot, at home, against a team with vastly inferior talent, and they lost by multiple scores. The Cowboys came about 6 inches short from the Playoff thanks to a game plagued by turnovers. That can play right into the hands of the Irish (see the 4^th quarter of the Wisconsin game) but I think the Cowboys have the sense to play smart, solid football and dare Jack Coan to beat them. ND: 20—OkSt: 24 

Schweinfurth: This is a game of addition by subtraction for Notre Dame. No more Brian Kelly, and that is a load off of the players. OK State lost the voice and leader of the defense to the Buckeyes. I think the Irish play inspired for Marcus Freeman. More salt for Gundy. ND: 28--OkSt: 21
Seeberg:  Ah, the coaching carousel causing chaos.  Alliteration aside, I'm not sure which way to lean on this one.  Notre Dame lays a lot of eggs in these games historically, but a new day may be dawning with a former Buckeye at the helm.  Tough to say what the Cowboys will do- they do see these games much.  (Plus I still recall witnessing, in person, a higher-ranked Cowboys team get dismantled in the Alamo Bowl in 2004 by the Buckeyes).  Whether Freeman will be a good head coach remains to be seen, but being abandoned by their head coach should leave a bad taste in the mouths of the ND squad and I expect some of that to be expressed on the field.  Golden Domers start strong and hold on late.  ND: 27-OkSt: 24

Sugar Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Baylor Bears

Draper: No freaking clue what to do about this game.  Lane Train is the most erratic, high variance coach out there while Aranda is a freaking robot.  Both teams are near the highest stages they've ever ascended although both have made a BCS/NY6 bowl before.  Matt Corral has said he's playing regardless of the advice to sit this one out, which is a huge boon for the Rebels.  The last time I saw these teams, Ole Miss won the Egg Bowl in convincing fashion and Baylor pulled off the monster ending....to one of the stupidest, most boring championship games ever.  Let's have some fun and roll with the crazy coach.  Miss: 38--Bay: 28
Hoying: So, the Bears win the Big 12 and draw the #8 Rebels, while the Cowboys lose the Big 12 championship and draw the #5 Irish? Reminds me of when the Buckeyes had to play #3 Texas in 2008 instead of going to the Rose Bowl…oh well. The Bears have been playing tough down the stretch, including holding Oklahoma to 14 points and making them look utterly lost, but the Lane Train is a different beast. True, the Rebs haven’t scored more than 31 points since their 52-51 squeaker over Arkansas back in early October. But Matt Corral isn’t Spencer Sanders, and you’re not going to be able to stand back and let the Rebels beat themselves the way Oklahoma State did. The SEC may be in the midst of getting exposed in a big way this bowl season, but I expect the big boys to step up and take care of business, culminating in an all-SEC title game (the lesser of two evils) and a Sugar Bowl win. Miss: 31—Bay: 24

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss can score with anyone. I really don't know if Baylor can get the stops needed to win this one. Hop on the Lane Train. Miss: 42--Bay: 31
Seeberg:  Bowl season, in my opinion, lends itself to the aggressive, unpredictable coaches that are willing to empty the playbook and let their athletes enjoy themselves at least a little bit.  That describes Lane Kiffin almost to a T.  If Matt Corral truly plays as he has said he will, that should be enough offensive firepower to outlast the Bears.  Miss: 38--Bay: 31

Rose Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Utah Utes

Draper: This game terrifies me to no end.  This is the pinnacle of achievement for the Utes.  They have exceeded all expectations, won the Pac12 South, won the Pac12, and made the Granddaddy of them All, while the Bucks are here as a consolation prize.  Bowl season is about nothing more than motivation in non-playoff games....and there is no real reason for the Bucks to get excited.  This is the 'Ship or Die culture that we've seen created with the playoff and it's here to stay regardless of our desires.  Best of luck to Olave, Wilson, Garrett, and Petit-Frere, but man would I like to see you again.  Utah will be playing with their hair on fire and has looked phenomenal over the last few games. Utah has the momentum, but OSU (even with the opt-outs) has the better talent.  There are 2 bright spots for OSU: 1) This is a chance for the young players to step up and take their spots for next year.  The receiver room is still loaded and there will be a battle for playing time (along side JSN).  Can the defense find the next core group? This is were an identity can be formed.  The second potential bright spot: this is CJ's moment.  Regardless of all the talking head chatter, Stroud had a fantastic 1st season and I think we see nothing but growth.  Here is the time for Ryan Day to develop his QB for phase 2 (and phase 1 was already pretty darn good).  CJ is on a mission, and that mission starts now.  QB7 is sending a message.  Take note TSUN...we haven't forgotten.  OSU: 45--UU: 35

Hoying: I haven’t seen a game with this many red flags for the Buckeyes since 2018 Purdue. This may be the biggest game in Utah history, other than maybe the 2019 Pac-12 Championship with a Playoff spot on the line,. Yeah, there was the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama in 2008 but this is the Granddaddy of Them All, a sentiment that seems to have been lost on four of this year’s Buckeye standouts. To Ohio State’s credit, the team is saying all the right things, and I don’t think Ryan Day is going to just roll over and let the season peter out. And, even with 4 starters out, the Buckeyes still have a massive talent advantage. That being said, the Utes run the same type of nasty physical rushing offense that dealt the Buckeyes both of their losses this year, not quite as well as the Wolverines do, but a darn sight better than Oregon. The rivalry game may have been the true test of the Buckeyes’ ceiling this year, and shattered fantasies of how comprehensively a defense can be rebuilt mid-season, but Utah is still an acceptable make-up exam for the Duck fiasco. Can the Buckeyes execute against what is essentially Oregon-but-better? Ohio State was one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation when the Ducks ate their lunch back in September; what have the Silver Bullets learned since then? Just how good are these 5* WRs that have been backing up Olave and Wilson all year while barely seeing the field? Does Matt Barnes’s bag of (predictable, non-adjustable) tricks work on teams that aren’t playing the game of their lives against their bitter rivals? I’m so close to pulling the trigger on a letdown loss to end the season, but there’s a little voice inside me that keeps insisting that this group took the loss to Michigan, and the Wolverines’ comments after the game, personally. Remember what the Buckeyes did to Clemson last year, with a team nowhere near as good as the one that lost the heartbreaker the year before? I expect something similar in store for the Wolverines next year, but it starts here, now, with a temperature check on whether this team believes they still have something to prove before the offseason. I have faith in my coach and my quarterback to lead them there. Get your popcorn ready. OSU: 45—UU: 41

Schweinfurth: The Bucks are in a no win situation here. Win and you beat an over matched opponent. Lose and you are on a two game losing streak and the questions and doubt get louder. This Rose Bowl will be a changing of the guard at wide out. No Wilson, no Olave. Good thing we still have JSN. Day lamented not getting Henderson the ball in the Michigan game. I don't think he will make that mistake again. Defensively, Utah is going to run the ball. This Utah team out muscled Oregon, who out muscled Ohio State. Not a good combo. Barns and company need to figure out how to use three linebackers (one of the biggest issues in the Michigan game) and how to slow down the run or this will be ugly. I don't have a good feeling about this, but hopefully Stroud embraces the villain status. OSU: 42--UU: 38
Seeberg:  So Bama gave everyone the blueprint to beat UGA, but the Wolverines likely don't have the right roster setup to take advantage of that information.  Then there's the Utes, built essentially like a poor man's UM, who just provided a textbook on how to beat OSU this season.  The Buckeyes' worst offensive output of the season was at Nebraska...when Wilson was out.  Uh oh.  For all of Stroud's success, I believe he has zeroed in on Wilson a LOT this season, at the expense of Olave's numbers which is insane because I'm still convinced he's the better receiver.  Of course, BOTH are sitting out so that's almost a moot point.  Another Garrett, of the Haskell variety, is also sitting, and losing a key cog in the middle in an already porous run D is no small issue either.  The talent gap is, even without 4 starters, very sizable.  However, talent disparities can be overcome with good schemes (check) and high motivation (pretty sure half their fan base never even realized the Rose Bowl was an option, so big check there).  It comes down to Ryan Day's gameplan.  He makes no bones about the fact that he's a pass-first coach...will he be still with his top two WRs out?  If the answer is yes, I fear it will be a long afternoon is Pasadena.  My wife fell asleep for the last 20 minutes of The Game and I envied her; sadly, I have a sinking feeling I will envy her again.  OSU: 31--UU: 35

Week 14: I'll Be Home For Advent

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 37-15 (3-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 36-16 (5-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 36-16 (3-10 upset)
4.) Draper 35-17 (4-9 upset)

When the season's been too lonely
And the road has been too long
And you think that wins are only
For the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in December
Far beneath the bitter snow
Lies the Bowl from the Committee
In the New Year, called the Rose.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Oregon Ducks vs. Utah Utes

Draper: It seems like yesterday that Utah smashed this Duck team in Salt Lake, but who doesn't love a good rematch (everyone....the answer is everyone). Oregon hasn't looked the same since the game in Columbus, but they do have talent on both sides.  That being said, Tavion Thomas had no trouble running all over the Ducks and I don't see that suddenly changing.  Thibideoux will get his, but they'll neutralize him by simply running the other way. I know beating a team 2x in a season is 'supposedly' difficult, but I think the Ute ground game repeat history. Ore: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: I don't know about you, but after I saw Utah eviscerate the Ducks in Salt Lake City, I was just itching for a chance to see such a thriller repeated. Since the Buckeyes are likely headed to the Rose Bowl, it's probably better to face the evil you know than the evil you don't, but I didn't see anything from Oregon the first time these teams met that would lead me to believe they have any kind of edge over the Utes. I know Utah was in this same position in 2018 and 2019, and Washington and Oregon sneezed during their backswing and ruined their Rose Bowl hopes, but enough has to be enough at some point, right? The Ducks suffer their second loss to Utah (the two Utes?) on their way out of NY6 contention. Ore: 20--Utah: 23
Schweinfurth: Utah straight up bullied the Ducks a couple of weeks ago. That beating was so thorough, I just don't think the Ducks match up with the Utes well. It will be closer due to the second game syndrome, but the Utes should win. Ore: 17--Utah: 24

Seeberg:  We all know the "tough to beat a good team twice in a season" adage.  The first meeting between these two was SO one-sided, however, it's hard to imagine the Ducks making up such a wide margin, even with a slightly healthier roster than the last go-round.  Besides, even if the Ducks manage to win this rematch they'd get a rude awakening in the Rose Bowl.  But no worries, they'll drop this one regardless.  Ore:24--Utah: 34

SATURDAY

Big 12: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Draper: Can the Pokes finish the job? I don't know if everyone understands that Okie State is in serious contention to be in the CFP.  While the Big 12 is 50 ft. of crap (that's losing their 2 biggest names), the Cowboys' defense has been phenomenal.  Baylor has quietly also had a great season with Coach Dave Aranda being targeted left and right (although I think he re-signed with the Bears).  I don't think the Bears are in with a win, I actually think it's very likely the Pokes hop in (look out Cincy...).  Mike Gundy continues one of his best season ever and ends with a Big 12 title.  Bay: 17--OkSt: 24

Hoying: When you see rematches, rematches everywhere during another Championship Saturday, it helps to examine the previous meeting and see if there was any fluky trend that tipped the result in the wrong direction. And no, this was just a standard grind it out defensive victory by 2021 OSU (aaagh). If anything, the fluke in these teams' prior matchup was that Cowboy QB Spencer Sanders was picked off three times. Don't bother trying to take any lessons away from Bedlam last week, other than congratulations on being the weirdest game in the weirdest season since 2007. It's been a nice ride, Baylor, but we'll find another team to take your NY6 slot. Time to start sweating, Cincinnati. Bay: 20--OkSt: 27
Schweinfurth: Baylor had that darling look about them for about the first half of the year. Now, it's OK State. Gundy has the Pokes playing about as well as anyone. For some reason, I smell a shootout. Bay: 35--OkSt: 42

Seeberg: Honestly?  I said it before and I'll say it again:  I gave up trying to figure out the Big XII about halfway through the year.  Still, trusting the Cowboys paid dividends last week.  I'd love to see Baylor win (along with Georgia and others) to produce some chaos for the committee, but the Cowboys play solid football and minimize mistakes, a crucial component of a team this late in the season (see:  Ohio State last week).  Who knows?  Maybe an OSU will make the playoff after all *shrugs*  Bay: 24--OkSt.--31 

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Sigh....It's just....sigh....  This game potentially has monstrous implications for the playoff.  Many think that Bama and UGA are both in regardless.  However, the loser is on the edge.  If you look at these teams' resumes, you find that the quality wins are severely lacking.  UGA has been dominant on defense all year, but who's their best win? Auburn? Clemson?  What about Bama? Auburn in 4 OT? Ole Miss?  Bama should be out with a loss, but UGA becomes an interesting case if UM, OkSt, and Cincy all win.  The Bama name itself was enough to beat the Tigers last week (talent wasn't the reason).  Can the past haunt the Dawgs with an offense that simply isn't as good as thought?  I think it might.  Bama is led by former Buckeye and Biletnikoff finalist (over Earth, Wind, and Fire for some reason), Jameson WIlliams, and they sneak out a win over a relatively untested UGA after a late game crapping away.  UGA: 23--Bama: 24

Hoying: Welcome to Footballmageddon week 2, although, ironically, with much less on the line than last week's headliner in Ann Arbor. Georgia is likely already locked into a Playoff spot win or lose, and after last week's miracle escape from Jordan Hare, the Tide are well positioned to steal the #4 spot with a loss if enough other games break their way. The Dawgs have been doing their best 2019 Ohio State impression after a surprising-in-hindsight tight victory over Clemson in the season opener. But along the way, who has really had the tools to challenge them? Kentucky? Arkansas? The nasty truth the SEC this year is that most teams are clustered around the 6-6 range, and Georgia has been fortunate to escape the more elite teams toward the top of the standings. Alabama, by contrast, has been through the wringer of the West, but not with style. Scoring 3 points in the first 59 minutes against 6-6 Auburn is not going to impress anyone, especially on the heels of giving up 35 to Arkansas. Georgia's defense continues to be the best in the nation to a severe outlier degree (their two closest competitors, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, both got a bit exposed in their rivalry games), but a better kept secret is that the Dawgs have one of the nation's most efficient offenses as well. They just haven't had to do anything this year. I'm a little concerned how Georgia will hold up once they get punched in the mouth by a real threat. Tennessee shook them around for a little while before the dreadnought righted itself (could you imagine being dumb enough to pick Tennessee to pull that upset off?), but I'm not sure the Bulldogs are battle tested enough to stroll to their first national title in 40 years. I think we won't find out the answer to that question against Alabama. I really hope we don't find out the answer against Michigan in the Playoff. Georgia gets revenge for 2018 (and 2017, and 2012) and FINALLY gets the Saban monkey off their back. UGA: 27--Bama: 20

Schweinfurth: Bama has been flirting with disaster for the entire second half of the season. Their defense is capable, but not quite to the standard we are used to seeing. Georgia's defense is for real. It is championship season, and Saban's teams always bring their best when there is a trophy involved. I just don't see it materializing this year. UGA: 28--Bama: 17

Seeberg:  I have to be honest, until last week (and admittedly I may be knee-jerk overreacting to that performance), I was leaning Bama in this one.  UGA really hasn't played anyone in quite some time, and Bama's typically potent offense would easily be the stiffest test for this vaunted Bulldog D.  Then Bama literally forgot to score for FIFTY-THREE BLEEPING MINUTES and somehow slithered to an atrocious 4-OT win against 6-loss (lol) Auburn.  At that rate, it might take 153 minutes to put points on the board against Georgia this season.  Either way, it's a race to 20, and I can't fathom the Tide making it there after last week.  UGA "pulls away" late.  UGA: 24--Bama: 16

AAC: Houston Wildcats @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: Don't care.....Cincy is clearly the superior team, but they need to finish the job.  Fickell remains in the first Cincy victory, the 2nd would be an AAC championship, and the 3rd would be a playoff berth.  If Cincy wins convincingly, I think they're safe....maybe. However, there is always the chance that they get complacent down the stretch.  Fickell will rally the troops to care care of business and prepare to get wrecked in the semis.  Hou: 24--UC: 34

Hoying: It's all at your fingertips, UC. You've cracked the top 4, your coach isn't leaving for Notre Dame, USC, or LSU, and you have one last shot at a quality (but not too daunting) opponent to leave a last good impression on the Committee. Should the Bearcats be worried about Houston? Not really. Sure, they're undefeated in the AAC, but *waves hands dismissively*, and they got suffered an embarrassing lead-squandering loss to Texas Tech to start the season. UC has snapped out of whatever midseason funk that was causing them to sleepwalk through a few forgettable games. The hopes and dreams of the entire Group of 5 rest on you, Coach Fick. Go get it. Hou: 20--Cin: 31
Schweinfurth: Big props to Fickell for sticking with the Bearcats. That is no small thing and should amp Cincy up even more for this one. Houston is a fine team, but they are standing in the way of Group of 6 history. Bearcats win and on to the playoffs. Hou: 17--Cin: 35

Seeberg:  So.  Much.  Drama.  The coaching carousel has jumped into hyperdrive/up to 11/engaged at warp 9/whatever pop culture reference to something being fast.  Fickell staying with the Bearcats is huge, but we are literally in unprecdented times with a group of five team firmly established in the top 4.  It has GOT to be difficult for the Bearcats to tune out the noise and focus on the task at hand.  I'm sorry, what's the Houston?  I know, nobody knows you're in the game (and ranked!)  either.  I sense that Cinci will come out TOO hyped and fire an INT or even two.  I may be an eternally pessimistic individual, but with everything that swirled around Hamilton County this week I just don't see a solid, workman like Cincinnati effort.  This is Houston's playoff, and it will show from the opening kick.  Great run while it lasted, UC.  HOU: 31--Cin: 28

ACC: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Both of these teams have been in a NY6 bowl in the BCS era....shocker, right? They were also among the worst BCS teams to snag a bid (hello, UConn!).  Kenny Pickett has had a fantastic year leading him to begin a quiet rise up the draft boards.  Wake just messed around all year to get a 10-win season and an ACC Atlantic title.  This is an ACC Wheel of Destiny type of game, but Pitt seems to have the edge.  I think they pull it out.  Put Pitt in! Pitt: 35--Wake: 24

Hoying: Start your engines, boys. Both of these teams rank in the top ten of scoring offense, and one of them (*cough Wake*) doesn't play defense so good. After a scorching hot start, the Demon Deacons morphed into more of a flaming wreck down the stretched but still managed to lock Florida State and Clemson out of the Atlantic division title for the first time since 2008. Pitt, meanwhile, has to be kicking themselves after gagging away two winnable games against Western Michigan and Miami. Win those and Pitt would be win-and-in against the Deacons this Saturday, but they'll have to settle for their first appearance in an NY6 bowl. Pickett outduels Hartman as the Panthers earn their first ACC championship. Pitt: 41--Wake: 31
Schweinfurth: Wake just hasn't looked the same since their first loss. It was almost as if they were figured out and everyone copied. The Deacons have been a great story so far, but Pitt pulls it out. Who saw that coming before the year started...Pitt: 38--Wake: 35

Seeberg:  In stark contrast to the contest below, this one will have...crap, what's it called?  Oh yeah...offense!  Other than the big SEC tilt, this will be the one to watch for entertainment value while you put up with your degenerate gambler cousin tell you he "almost" took that 4000:1 shot at the start of the season where Pitt and Wake Forest would wind up foes in the conference championship game.  Reminder, Wake scored 55 points in a LOSS this year.  Impressive in a less-than-positive way.  Can't imagine the Deacons will get enough stops against maybe the only offense in the conference more potent than their own.  Panthers in a fun one.  Pitt: 45--Wake: 37

Big Ten: Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: A little real talk...my picks have been atrocious since midseason.  Sometimes, I've been unlucky, and sometimes, just dumb. Regardless, while I'm picking with my heart, most of my picks are against my desires.  Perhaps I'm hedging, perhaps just throwing darts, but I'm hoping most of these picks tank. That being said, the Wolverines defense (especially, Hutchinson) is the real deal.  The best description of Iowa was on twitter recently brought up by Bill Connelly....you seem to be in the game, then a quick turnover, you wake up, and realize the game is over.  Is there going to be a regression to the mean after the Wolverines got their big win? I don't think so.  Iowa is such a weird team, anything could happen....but I'm afraid doomsday may arrived.....I hate them.  Mich: 24--Iowa: 13

Hoying: *hurp* this is going to be a tough one. Harbaugh's *other* really good team, the one that came about an inch from an overtime win against Ohio State, suffered three losses. One was to the Buckeyes in the greatest edition of The Game ever. One was to #10 Florida State in the Orange Bowl on a last minute touchdown. And the third, was to Iowa. Not Playoff semifinalist Iowa. Not top 10 Iowa. Just regular, 8-5, standard Kirk Ferentz Iowa. Was it a trap game? I doubt it; the Wolverines played Maryland the week before and Indiana the week after. The Hawkeye defense simply swarmed the Wolverines, putting Speight out of his element and scoring a safety that exceeded the winning margin. And wouldn't you know it: that's exactly what the 2021 Hawkeyes have been doing, all the way from flummoxing Michael Penix in the opener to the tune of a 45% completion rate and 3 INTs, to doing much the same against Illini QB (and former Wolverine) Brandon Peters two weeks ago. (Don't ask about the Nebraska game, poor Nebraska has managed to be THE weird team in a weird year, although it's worth noting that the Hawkeyes beat the Huskers by a larger margin than Michigan did.) So, is there a reason to hope for a competitive matchup on Saturday in Indianapolis? Lol, are you serious? Maybe if Michigan doesn't get off the bus. You want to talk about defenses making QB's look uncomfortable? CJ Stroud was running for his life from Aidan Hutchinson on about every play that Treveyon didn't take the bullet for him. And you don't need to worry about the state of your passing game when you can put the team on Haskins and Corum's shoulders. Did you see what Wisconsin did to Iowa in October? This Saturday will be like that, but a million times worse. And yes, the Buckeyes would have done the same damn thing if they could have gone to Indianapolis this weekend instead. 2021 is the year of the weasel. Mich: 30--Iowa: 13

Schweinfurth: Did you watch the release in Ann Arbor last week? One gets the feeling that last week was the Wolverine's championship game. I've seen this story before, only a few hours south. The Game is such an emotional and physical drain, especially when you get a win for the first time in a decade. And they were still spouting off all week as if the Buckeyes were their opponent in the B1G Championship game. Iowa knows who they are and actually has a run defense to speak of. I...can't...pick...Harbaugh. This really feels like a let down game. Mich: 13--Iowa 16

Seeberg:  Won't be any surprises here.  We know what these two squads do and don't do.  It comes down to a few questions.  Can UM maintain last week's insanely high level?  No.  Is Iowa equipped to take advantage?  Not enough.  Am I lucky enough to see the Wolverines crash and burn after last week's dare-not-touch-the-sun performance?  To that I say HA...and no.  UM squeaks into the CFP *throws up in mouth*.  UM: 20--Iowa: 16

Week 13: Nowhere To Run

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 35-12 (3-9 upset)
2.) Draper 34-13 (4-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 34-13 (4-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 34-13 (3-9 upset)

Here we stand, once again, Wolverines. You know what you did last year. Unfortunately for you, Ryan Day's offer didn't include an expiration date. Enjoy your centuplicate.

THANKSGIVING

_ississippi Rebels @ _ississippi State Bulldogs
Draper: Who doesn't love a good Egg Bowl? Can we top an ending in which a player pretended to urinate on the goalpost and drew a penalty which cost the rivalry? I don't know, but I know that this contest features the two coaches with the greatest chance of insanity.  Joey Freshwater has the Rebs flying high in the top ten....but...why? A nice win over the Aggies 2 weeks back, but nothing terribly awe-inspiring.  With that said, Leach and Co. also fail to push the needle with their body of work.  Honestly, the Bulldogs season looks nearly equivalent.  Both beat the Aggies and got destroyed by the Tide.  The best solution in this situation....keep tranquil and CLANGA. I just can't quit Leach.  Rebs: 42-Dogs: 45
Hoying: Leachball is back in full force in Stark Vegas, as the Bulldogs have one of the few passing offenses in the nation outpacing C.J. Stroud, along with virtually zero rushing threat. But the better QB is still probably the erstwhile Davey O’Brien candidate Corral for the Rebs. The Lane train is still running hot after a suffocating victory over the Texas Aggies and I think the D holds against the air raid, followed by a 1-2 counterattack with Corral and Reb RB Jerrion Early. Rebs: 34—Dogs: 27
Schweinfurth: Egg in a Bowl...er Egg Bowl!! The Bulldogs have hung around so far, but Little Lane has had the Rebs defense playing better. The Rebels should win this one. Rebs: 38--Dogs: 35

Seeberg:  Tough to figure out the Bulldogs this year, feast (beat the Aggies and won at Auburn), or starvation (lost to Louisiana and Tennessee-based Tigers in consecutive weeks).  We know these two offenses can score in bunches, but the clanga crowd should help the Dogs' D get enough stops, and perhaps a turnover or two.  Bulldogs' repel the rebels.  Rebs: 31-Dogs: 34

SATURDAY

Oklaho_a Sooners @ Oklaho_a State Cowboys
Draper: This contest is truly interesting.  The Pokes and Sooners appear to collide with the little brother ruining the big dog's year....but the roles are (kinda) reversed.  Both squads have an outside shot of the playoff with a slight edge to OkSt.  Caleb's shine has worn off a bit, but the question is 'can the Pokes step up to the plate on the biggest of stages?'  The gut says to revert to priors and lean on the Sooners to get it done, but the Cowboy defense has been a force of late and the Sooners haven't looked the part all year. Lee Corso said it best, I have a cousin that went to Stillwater for his degree....Go Pokes! OU: 20--OkSt: 27

Hoying: We return to everyone’s favorite Spencer vs. Spencer showdown, although the Sooners will probably go with Caleb to start the action on Saturday. Of course, they tried that two weeks ago against Baylor and got stonewalled when Caleb ground the offense to a halt (speaking of erstwhile Davey O’Brien candidates). Turning to Spencer Rattler didn’t effect a lick of difference. Then again, that was against the Bears, who are only allowing 19 points a week. Now the Sooners get the Cowboys, who give up…15 points a week? Uh oh. The Sooners have consistently struggled to push the ball against solid defenses (and Kansas) and I don’t expect their fortunes to change this week. OU: 13--OkSt: 24
Schweinfurth: The B12's playoff hopes look like they are on the Cowboys at this point. The Sooners just don't have the juice the year. Rattler isn't the answer and apparently, neither is Caleb. At this point, I have to believe the Sooners are a two loss squad. The 'Boys keep the B12 playoff hopes alive. OU: 17--OSU: 28

Seeberg:  Anyone think the Cowboys and not the Sooners would be the likelier squad that could rep?  Nope, neither did I.  Back to back wins against the Sooners and the Baylor Bears COULD be enough to let the CFP bail out of taking a non-p5 opponent.  Step one?  Beat your hated rivals...and OU has appeared to worsen as the season has gone on, so let's take it there early and often.  OU: 24--OkSt- 31

_aryland Terrapins @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Draper: Does anybody really know what bowl the winner goes to? Does anybody really care? The answer is a resounding no. Can the Terps derail the Schiano Train? I think I'll lean on the group with a new experience on the line. It's been seven long years since the Knights graced the Quick Lane Bowl.  That's just too big a prize to sleep on.  It's Buttgers' hour! Terps: 24--Rut: 31

Hoying: Be honest, to what extent have you seen of either of these two this season, other than being part of Ohio State’s Evisceration October? It was fun to see the updates of last week’s Rutgers-Penn State tilt, featuring 12 straight punts to start the afternoon (and another 5 straight out of the half). Yeah, Penn State’s offense isn’t that great, but at least a result like that gives this writer hope that the Scarlet Knights can play a bit of defense. Both of these offenses are going to be awful, but past results this year suggest that the Terps’ attack will be just a little bit awfuller. Is it wrong to hope for a 10 OT atrocity with the final score I’ve predicted? Terps: 16--Rut: 18

Schweinfurth: Which Taulia do we get to watch? Good Taulia, or Bad Taulia. It's funny, because you know exactly how this will go depending on his play. Schiano continues to rebuild Rutgers, and there is talent there. I'll take the Knights. Terps: 31--Rut: 35

Seeberg:  Yay for trophy-centric rivalry contests?  (Or not).  Regardless, this one is being contested on Saturday too.  And that's about all the attention it warrants.  Fire the (non-Blue Jacket) cannon boys.  Terps: 24--Rut: 28

Florida State Se_inoles @ Florida Gators

Draper: Rebuilding and all, this is when your season grows into a success.  There have been ups and a lot of downs, but if the Noles can get bowl eligible, beat their rival, AND keep the Gators outside of bowl eligibility, the season isn't lost.  While it's been a trying season, no one has fallen apart quicker or as holistically as the Gators.  Only one last thing needs to be said...TALKIN! FSU: 20--UF: 17

Hoying: This sure isn’t 1996. Don’t expect these two to face each other again a bowl, because the loser is enjoying New Year’s the way the rest of us do: eating out at Texas Roadhouse and playing WarioWare (or Wii Play, pick your poison). Fresh off playing the Tide within one possession for the second year in a row, Florida finally (?) decided to part ways with Darth Dan before their recruiting dried up entirely. The Gators, frankly, haven’t looked good this year since their inexplicable thrashing of a decent Tennessee squad in week 4, while the Noles have been quietly clawing their way up to quasi-respectability after losing to Jacksonville freaking State (not to be confused with Neon Deion’s Jackson State). Are these squads on different trajectories, or are these just the respective costs of doing business this year in the SEC (good) and ACC (blaaaagggh)? I don’t really expect Florida to rally around their fallen coach, and FSU will scrape and scrap to take any positives they can find in their post-Fisher purgatory. FSU: 27--UF: 24

Schweinfurth: Florida State vs Florida for a bowl! The state of both squads is nothing short of sad. Florida is in a tail spin with no way out. I guess the 'Noles have been consistent? Yea, I'll go with that. FSU: 24--UF: 21

Seeberg:  Ah yes, your older brother's days, when these squads were perennially gunning for titles, now relegated to a fully unranked clash with only bowl eligibility to play for.  Regardless, it will be a heated affair.  With all the disarray currently in Gainesville it would appear an easy FSU victory, but I can picture the Gators rallying around their new coach enough to sneak out a W, giving Greg Knox a bowl appearance to audition for the newly anointed coach.  FSU: 20--UF: 28

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ That School Up North

Draper: It is the reason for donning the scarlet and gray; It was taken away last year; and now, the hour of battle is nigh.  Top 5 titans collide once again for the right to go to Indy, for the right to contend for the CFP, but of principal gravity, because it has to be done.  The Wolverines have a stout defense (arguably the best to face the Scarlet and Gray this year) with stellar defensive ends, but the Boilers ran into this buzzsaw.  Stroud and friends have clicked on all cylinders of late.  The question is 'can the Buckeye Oline (full of NFL talent) protect the best player in the country to allow Earth, Wind, and Fire to create fireworks?'  There will be a few plays in which the foes will wreak havoc, but the balance of good will erupt out of the chaos to defeat the forces of evil.  As the D pins their ears back, look for Henderson to break a few and shock the wolverines with his speed.  Let's also not forget how the Bullets killed the candidacy of one Kenneth Walker III for the nation's top award.  The OSU defense (even including the first 2 HORRIBLE weeks against the Gophers and Ducks) sports the #11 rush defense (TTUN is #30).  I have faith that old Cade isn't going to be able to win this one on his own.  The Bucks bottle up the TTUN on the ground and while Hutchinson & Co. will hinder the explosive Buckeye passing attack, they cannot contain #7 (or #2, #5, or #11).  Lay a hundred on these losers.  OSU: 45--TTUN: 20

Hoying: I think it’s safe to say that spirits in central Ohio are a bit higher after the last two Buckeye buttkickings than after the previous two struggle bus stops. Yes, the Buckeyes will be leaving the friendly confines for this one, but, top 5 ranking notwithstanding, their opponent is not built to stop this Ohio State onslaught. I’ve been hearing for weeks about how the Wolverines are well equipped to keep pace with the Buckeyes in a way no other school on their schedule has been able to do since Oregon, and I gotta tell you, I just don’t see it. Those vaunted Wolverine strengths? The pass rush? Ohio State has the edge on sacks, 35-29. The rushing attack? Ohio State leads the nation at 5.82 yards/rush (the Wolverines are just about a full yard below this). The only true edge the skunk weasels have is in the secondary. But I have bad news for any fans up north: the Buckeye secondary is facing Cade (or worse, JJ) & friends, while the yellow and blue back seven are facing one of the greatest juggernaut passing attacks in college football history. Oh, sure, just play two-high and send your ends upfield to pressure Stroud as fast as you can. See what TreVeyon and the slobs have to say about that. I guess this one could be close if the Buckeyes turn the ball over a bunch or forget how to tackle, but the gap (talent, preparation, coaching, or otherwise) between these two is as wide as ever. Go Bucks. OSU: 41--TTUN: 20
Schweinfurth: This has the feel it's supposed to have. A top 5 contest with TTUN actually holding up their end of the bargain. I get the sense that the Buckeyes are ticked off after Harbaugh tried to save face by waving the white flag TTUN's COVID outbreak last year (it's not like they had a hard practice the next day...). The Buckeye's schedule has been slowing building to this crescendo and they have a season's worth of scars to lean into. TTUN looks like a one trick pony on offense and Cade is a serviceable QB. Stuff the two headed beast in the Wolverine backfield, and I think Harbooger panics. Day has created a habit of carpet nuking this rivals and he is bringing the Scarlet and Gray Death Star into the Big House. The Buckeye offense is just so explosive, I can't see a way this is close past the first quarter. Bucks win again and onto Indy! BEAT BLUE!!! OSU: 49--TTUN: 14

Seeberg:  Full disclosure- as a child of the Cooper era, this contest will ALWAYS cause the nerves to escalate!  Sadly, this year is no different.  The Buckeye O is absolutely zipping along right now, but begrudgingly, TTUN possesses two elite defensive ends that could even give our excellent pass-blocking line a few issues.  AND they can suddenly kinda/sorta/perhaps/nearly throw the ball too, to the tune of nearly 400 yards against their not-so-little brother.  CJ's toughest experience to date was the opener against the Gophers, and this will undoubtedly be several notches tougher.  The utter destruction of our northern rivals cannot continue indefinitely, and could cease with this one.  In the end, however, I just flat out don't trust a Harbaugh-led offensive unit to outscore this iteration of the OSU juggernaut.  Bucks head to Indy- and I kinda want to find seats! OSU: 41--TTUN: 24

Upset Special
Draper: South Carolina over Cle_son
Hoying: LSU over Texas A&_
Schweinfurth: Auburn over Ba_a
Seeberg:  Texas Tech over Baylor

Week 12: The Whole State: Part One

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 33-11 (3-8 upset)
2.) Draper 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-13 (4-7 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 31-13 (3-8 upset)

The Buckeyes' severely backloaded schedule ramps up in earnest as they face the second of what will hopefully a stretch of six consecutive ranked opponents. Marquee games are rare across the landscape (in sharp contrast to last Saturday and next Saturday) but a couple of leading Playoff contenders are on serious upset alert.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Arkansas has been a fun story all year and at coming off a big OT win in the boot game.  Buuuut....Bama.  The Tide don't look phenomenal every week, but seem to win by a ton...every week (except UF and TAMU).  I think the Hogs make it interesting early as Alabama sleepwalks a bit early, but the passing game with Jameson Williams is too much.  Ark: 17--Bama: 34
Hoying: You can set your watch by the Tide this season. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout, blowout, clunker. Blowout...well, that determines the outcome of this one. Stay tuned for a clunker against a BoNix-less Auburn next week I guess. Seriously, though, I don't see a way for the Razorbacks to gain an edge on Alabama. The Hogs lean heavily on their running game, and Alabama's D is sitting at a comfy #3 in the nation in rushing yards per attempt (right behind Georgia and Wisconsin). The Razor D is pretty meh, so expect Tide QB Bryce Young to keep pace with CJ Stroud this week in the Heisman race. Ark: 13--Bama: 37
Schweinfurth: I'm not gonna break this one down. Bama is still really good. Arkansas is not. Bama by a million. Ark: 10--Bama: 45

Seeberg: Hey, nice to see the Razorbacks still relevant this season. Feels like they've been lost in the SEC West shuffle lately. Unfortunately they will be permanently relegated to oblivious after a trip to Tuscaloosa. Nice to see a non-cupcake down south this week anyway. Ark: 17--Bama: 38

Oregon Ducks @ Utah Utes
Draper: This one is suuuuper interesting.  The Ducks started to look the part over the last few weeks, but Utah is sneaking around the chicken coop looking to poison the Pac 12's drinking water. This is almost guaranteed to be a preview of the Pac12 title game (rematches...<barf>), but having this one in Salt Lake makes for some Pac12 after dark (kinda) action.  This game gets weird in Utah.  Can Utah Swoop in to take away the CFP dollars? My signs point to yes.  Ore: 20--Utah: 21

Hoying: *Spider-Men pointing at each other.gif" Here we have Oregon going to visit what appears to be slightly-better-Oregon. Utah, like the Ducks, likes to run the ball, and doesn't pass so well (but a bit better than Oregon). Utah's schedule has been a bit tougher (other than the obvious) and they've navigated a couple of early stumbles to put together some solid performances recently. Oregon, likewise, seems to be hitting its stride after back-to-back awful performances against Stanford and Cal (incidentally, enjoy the Big Game this weekend). If this game were in Eugene, I'd probably roll with the Ducks, but Utah was able to handle Arizona State and UCLA at home relatively easily, and I expect their fortunes to continue this week. Ore: 24--Utah: 27
Schweinfurth: Look, Oregon is ripe to lose another game this year. That Verdell injury will have to come back to bite them at some point. I really just don't think it's this week. The Ducks still have Thibodeaux, and he is as close to a game wrecker as they come. I think Oregon squeaks this one out. Ore: 21--Utah: 17

Seeberg: Still laughing out of derision that the Ducks stay ahead of the scarlet and gray in the CFPoop rankings (while UM stays ahead of MSU *facepalm*). Regardless, Vegas knows the truth which is why the Ducks are 3-point dogs against a barely ranked Utah squad while OSU is nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against a top-10 opponent. Sadly, the Utes won't have enough juice to clear the Pac-12 leaders out of the way. Ducks: 31--Utes: 24

Michigan State Spartans @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: This looks to be what I thought the PSU game was going to be.  Penn State showed that the Illinois game was a blip on their defensive radar.  MSU's defense, however.....woof.  Sparty has a fantastic back in Kenneth Walker, but I just don't think he'll be able to carry the load against a stout Buckeye run defense (check the tape, since Oregon, they've only allowed 70 or so yards on the ground per game).   Payton Thorne has been able to hit some big time throws, but there aren't enough to match with Stroud.  They'll try to take the air out of the ball and shorten the game because every time the Buckeyes touch the ball, look to the end zone. The Buckeye offense has to be salivating to get into this matchup.  Purdue dropped to 49th overall in defense after getting shellacked by this OSU offense (I believe they were top 30 prior).  MSU on the other hand....111th overall.  Wilson was the guy last week, but I just don't see this offense being stopped.  With Wilson, Olave, Smith-Njigba, and Henderson to deal with (not to mention Williams, Ruckert, and a million other weapons), what is any defense (let alone a bad defense) to do? Stroud rips through the MSU defense and vaults to the clear leader in the Heisman rankings after another offensive clinic in a dominating win over a top 10 team.  MSU: 24--OSU: 56 

Hoying: What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense? What do you do with a busted defense early in the...afternoon? Last week I dismissed any concerns regarding Purdue's offense, saying they only looked so good against Michigan State because the Spartan defense is nonexistent. After all, Purdue put up 40 against Sparty and then...put up 31...against Ohio State. Huh. OK, even if the Ohio State defense is on Michigan State's level, the offenses are not in the same ballpark. While it's true that the Buckeyes were gift-wrapped a couple of short fields to race out to an early lead last week, the offense still moved the ball at will all day, scoring touchdowns on their first 6 drives, committing zero turnovers and punting once! MSU's offense is not so efficient, essentially playing the game of their lives against Big Brother and white knuckling out lackluster wins against Nebraska and Indiana before getting badly exposed in West Lafayette. I'm going to knock a few points off the final margin because Ohio State has a nasty history of underperforming the week before The Game (see 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015 (ack), 2016, 2018), but that'll go more on the "defense misses a few tackles on Walker" rather than expecting Olave, Wilson, or Smith-Njigba to drop anything or Stroud to suddenly start missing his marks. Weather forecast? Mostly cloudy, with light winds, which means 100% chance of Buckeyes raining TDs. MSU: 31--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: Let's be honest, no one had Michigan State in the top 10 at all this year. Yet here we are with two weeks to play. This is a team that has put the dagger into many a season for the Ohio State faithful. The bright spot for the Buckeyes, the Spartans can get torched downfield. Oh look, here comes the best WR room in the country. Wilson, Olave, and Smith-Njigba are going to feast this week. Defensively, just don't let Walker bust the big runs and keep everything in front of you. Can Sparty pull the upset? Yes. Will they? Probably not. Stroud for Heisman ratchets up a little more. MSU: 21--OSU: 49

Seeberg: Ah yes, the vaunted Spartans come to town, looking to ruin another Buckeye season (see: 2015, 1998). This iteration, however, has a large weakness that this OSU team is constructed to exploit: they cannot stop the pass. Even UM's laughable pass offense racked up nearly 400 yards through the air - mostly while building their 16-point lead, not coming from behind. Sparty's offense is led by a legitimate Heisman candidate and they do have some balance, but there's just no chance they can contain this Buckeye offense with any consistency. Last home game for me in person for awhile as we are expecting a new addition to the family by late February, so Go Bucks! MSU: 27--OSU: 48

Upset Special
Draper: SMU over UC
Hoying: Iowa State over Oklahoma
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Wisconsin
Seeberg: Illinois over Iowa

Week 11: Silver Bullet Dodgers

Standings:

1.) Seeberg 30-9 (3-7 upset)
2.) Hoying 29-10 (4-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 29-10 (3-7 upset)
4.) Draper 28-11 (4-6 upset)

After 3 long years of waiting, the Buckeyes are finally aboard the revenge train. Fun fact: the Buckeyes haven't lost back-to-back games to a Big Ten opponent since...(Michigan State? no. Penn State? uh-uh. Michigan? lol.) Wisconsin, in 2003 and 2004. Here's to keeping a streak alive.

Also, every other power conference gets a ranked matchup this week, too! Except the Pac-12, because, well, you know.

Michigan Wolverines @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: This has all the makings of a...pretty good game.  I have been saying all year that I believe the other top B1G teams are mirages and this is the second test for both.  Penn State came out much stronger than I thought against the Buckeyes (credit to them) and I think they'll be flying around here.  Michigan finally got caught by Sparty but responded nicely against IU.  The big question is: can the Wolverines respond in a MUCH tougher environment than they faced in East Lansing? Clifford seems to be back to normal, which makes this Lion offense look much different than it did in the losses to Iowa and Illinois.  Cade McNamara is nothing special so it comes down to strength on strength in the Wolverine rushing attack vs. the PSU defense.  If the Lions ball out like they did against the Buckeyes (no reason to think they won't at home), I think the home field advantage carries the day...just barely.  I probably should pick Michigan since my picks have been SO bad lately, but I'll go with the Lions.  UM: 17--PSU: 20
Hoying: This isn't a ranked matchup because somehow Wisconsin and Auburn are ranked, but Penn State, who beat both of them, is not. The good news is if the Lions can pull off the home win, they'll definitely be in the rankings next week. The better news is that one of these teams will have to lose, because I hate them both. Who has the edge this time? Do you remember Ohio State trying to run the ball on Penn State? Guess who is much more reliant on the run than Ohio State is? I'm not saying that Michigan is more potent in the run game than Ohio State (this week will tell us a lot about whether that's the case), but they're in a great deal more trouble if the run game doesn't work. Cade McNamara isn't going to catch fire unless he's playing a bad secondary (see my writeup  for the Ohio State game below for who that team could be) and Penn State doesn't fit that profile. Michigan is also developing problem finishing in the red zone, which doomed them against Michigan State's pedestrian defense. Uh-oh. Penn State isn't exactly setting the world on fire on offense, either, but unfortunately for UM, Sean Clifford appears to finally be back to 100%, which should give Penn State the slight (slight) edge at QB to go with their edge at WR with Jahan Dotson. Just enough to eke out a win in front of the home crowd. UM: 20--PSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Oh look, Harbaugh is taking is circus on the road again. Nothing bad could possibly happen against a team with a decent QB and an elite receiver...right. From what I can tell, Penn State has a very good defense, but so does Michigan. Michigan can run the ball, but Penn State can't. It may not matter though. I can totally see Penn State bottling up the Wolverine running tandem. They did a pretty good job against the Buckeye backfield.This should come down to QB play as I said earlier. Who do you trust more, Clifford or McNamera? I'm going with Clifford because he isn't a statue and he had Dotson on the outside. Add in the Penn State crowd, yea it's a no doubter. UM: 17--PSU: 21

Seeberg:   Ah yes, TTUN vs. PSU where we separate the pretenders from the...slightly more competent pretenders??  Technically our neighbors to the north still have everything to play for, not the case for our eastern-border friends.  The Wolverines suddenly had a passing attack against Little Brother and still managed to choke away a 16-point lead.  I would imagine MSU and PSU have comparable defenses, but Penn State's secondary is superior which should make UM one-dimensional- in the dimension they typically prefer.  I trust neither QB, but I thought UM was the better squad.  One bad quarter on the road in a rivalry game shouldn't define their season, so Harbaugh gets them back on track with a late W (after a final pick of Clifford, of course).  UM: 24--PSU: 20

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Draper: Can Caleb WIlliams be stopped by someone OTHER than Kansas (kinda)? Baylor has quietly put together a nice season while the Sooners seem to be dodging bullets in every game this year.  Will a team in the 'vaunted' Big 12 be able to challenge the big dog? I know Williams has been great, but I have to imagine that there will be some chink in the armor that eventually appears.  What better way for this to happen than having lowly Baylor sneaking around the chicken coup in Waco to remove one of the few remaining impediments to a playoff without controversy (right?).  Let's go with the Bears snakebiting the Sooners.  You can only play with fire so often.  OU: 38--Bay: 41
Hoying: Play time is over, Star Fox. After letting (7-loss) Nebraska and (5-loss) Texas hang around until the end of the game, OU has managed to find a couple of blowouts along their way to a healthy 9-0 start. But now they face the mother of all backloaded schedules, as the Big 12's #2, #3, and #4 teams are next on the slate. The good news is that the Sooners don't usually lose to any of these teams, least of all Baylor, whom the Sooners have beaten 7 times in a row, including twice in 2019 alone. This game should go a long way toward telling us whether Oklahoma has been a total sham this whole time (you'd think the Texas game would be a strong data point in the affirmative, but Caleb Williams did only play a little more than a half that day). The Sooners boast one of the top rush defenses in the country, which is bad news for a Baylor attack almost as dependent on the run as Michigan is. I don't think OU gets to 12-0, but I don't think this is the week that trips them up. Sooners stay undefeated...for now. OU: 35--Bay: 28
Schweinfurth: The Sooners look like they are waking up from their Spencer Rattler induced slumber. Are these last few blowouts a product of the opponent or actually waking up? I guess we find out soon. Baylor has mostly flown under the radar, but really I just trust the Sooners more. OU: 42--Bay: 38

Seeberg:  Not exactly the marquee Oklahoma versus a Texas school matchup we thought we'd get, but here we are.  OU can actually play a bit of defense this season, which has at times bailed out their uncharacteristically sputtering offense.  As lousy as that conference is they should still make the title game unblemished based solely on talent disparity.  Bears keep it close, Sooners show up just soon enough.  OU: 38--Bay: 28 

Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: Another SEC also-ran game.  A&M has played fairly well since the huge win over Bama and no reason to think that changes this week.  The Aggies have been extremely impressive on defense, but the Lane Train might be able to throw in a wrench in the Grove.  Honestly, I don't think the Rebels have enough firepower to out scheme the more talented Aggies.  I could see Jimbo pooping this away and blaming his players, but I doubt it.  TAMU: 31--Miss: 17

Hoying: Why does it feel like we're picking the same game every week? Some combination of Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas...I guess that's what happens when you have that many good teams in the same division. If this were Roll Tide! blog instead of Let's Go Bucks! we'd probably be confused about all the Ohio State-Penn State-Michigan-Michigan State games instead. Anyway, Texas A&M's defense continues to be so hot right now, while Ole Miss's defense is more...derelicte. We all saw what BoNix did to the Rebels a couple of weeks ago; he just put up less than 4 yards per attempt against the Aggies D. Let's not forget that this was the team that rolled the Tide, no popcorn necessary. Vegas says this game will be close, but I don't see it. TAMU: 34--Miss: 20

Schweinfurth: Texas A&M has been playing much better since the Alabama upset. It's amazing what a little confidence will do for you. Ole' Miss has just kinda been hanging out and not doing too much. I don't trust either of these two teams, but I'll take A&M. TAMU: 28--Miss: 24

Seeberg:  This game looked a lot more intriguing with a fully healthy Matt Corral at QB for the Rebs.  He's gutting it out on game days but rarely (if ever) practicing.  Precision passing without reps is just too tough against a reasonable defense, which the Aggies possess.  TAMU gets a decent road win to complement the Bama W.  TAMU: 31--Miss: 24

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: Can Wake rebound from the loss of the perfect dream season? I don't think anyone saw the Demon Deacons spoiling the CFP party, but they can still win the ACC and dethrone the Tigers.  NC State is usually good for an upset here or there (see Clemson), but they don't have the consistency.  Wake is pretty consistent, but their defense has been awful of late.  Can they outscore the Pack? My time at FSU taught me one thing about playing Wake....their field is terrible and always caused a plethora of injuries. Let's see if it claims another foe when the team has a pulse.  NCSt: 31 -- Wake: 35

Hoying: Do you want to see a year without a Clemson ACC Championship as much as I do? The winner of this game is likely your only hope. NC State has the inside track due to offing the Tigers already, but due to a quirk of scheduling, Wake Forest's loss last week to North Carolina doesn't count against its conference record. As for this matchup, this is a classic clash of opposing styles. Wake Forest's high-flying offense is putting up over 44 points a game (notably, they scored 55 in their only loss), while NC State is allowing only 16 points per game, even better than the BRETT VENABLES Clemson Tiger defense. Time to pull my standard I-don't-know copout and choose the home team. You don't just walk into...Truist Field (not the baseball stadium). NCSt: 35--Wake: 38

Schweinfurth: I have watched exactly 0 minutes of either of these teams. Wake scores points in bunches. NC State is okay I guess. I really have no clue. I'll take Wake, I guess. I don't know. NCSt: 24--Wake: 42

Seeberg:  Fun fact:  I lived in Greensboro, NC for 6 years and have visited the "meh" Wake Forest stadium.  Never thought "exciting football!" would go in the same sentence but lo and behold the Deacs can score and score a ton.  Lots of Wolfpack fans in the area and Wake is a small school so I don't expect much of a home field advantage, but I do expect them to outscore the Pack regardless.  NCSt: 31--Wake: 41

Purdue Boilermakers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: This Buckeye team has started playing on the edge again.  PSU and Nebraska are pretty good teams (regardless of the Huskers record, the 9 point victory for the Buckeyes was Nebraska's biggest margin of defeat on the season...including MSU, UM, and OU), but this O-line has to figure out the run game.  Henderson is too good to be running into defenders at every turn.  Purdue has a pretty solid defense that could cause some problems.  The 4 tackle approach at O-line has helped the pass blocking but the run blocking simply needs to improve.  CJ and his receivers will be fine (should be nice to get Wilson back this week), but I really would like to see some open lanes for Henderson to get to the 2nd level.  One thing that hasn't been mentioned enough is the incredible performance of the defense of late.  Last week, they had 2 meltdowns....2. Yes, they were really big meltdowns, but when this defense can minimize the explosives, they've been more or less shutting down the opposition.  My goals for this game (other than a win) is 1 or fewer explosive plays given up, 125 on the ground, and >2 explosives in the passing game.  I think that's doable in the Shoe if all the weapons are back.  Please, Buckeyes...let's have another one of those boring games by half.  PU: 24--OSU: 41
Hoying: OK, I've learned my lesson from last week. I'm not going to have my picks live or die based on whether the team is one-dimensional or not. Purdue was even more pass-happy than usual last week and it didn't stop them from rolling right over Michigan State. Does that result strike fear into the heart of Buckeye Nation? Because it shouldn't. Michigan State has the worst, that's right, the WORST, #130, pass defense in the nation in terms of yards per game allowed. Yes, they lead a lot in their games and that can skew the results a bit, but even Ohio State is allowing almost 80 fewer yards per game through the air. With Purdue's nonexistent run game not keeping the Rushmen honest, expect to see the recently resurgent Ohio State pass rush tee off on poor Aidan O'Connell, leading to a lot of sacks and forced turnovers. The biggest surprise in this one could be Purdue's surprisingly effective defense, which ranks #15 in defending the pass and #26 overall. That's better than either Penn State or Nebraska, and you may have noticed that the Buckeye attack has been having some trouble finishing drives against each of those teams. Of course, Ohio State still won each of those games by multiple scores, so the Buckeyes should be able to win this week even if the offense continues to bring their C-game. I, for one, would prefer a good old fashioned Buckeye blowout, with the between-the-20's juggernaut offense from the last couple weeks mixed with the lack of penalties and missed run block assignments we saw during the glorious midseason. I'm not holding my breath, though (by which I mean I'm going to be holding my breath all game long) as Ohio State's red zone woes seem to be a trend rather than an aberration. At least the Buckeyes didn't suffer their last giant upset because they traded FG's for TD's all first half long. Who was the team they were playing that day...? Buckeyes in a nailbiter (until they fix the red zone issues). Pur: 20--OSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Phew, the annual B1G West team after the Penn State game is over and the Bucks survived. At least there isn't a giant killer on the schedule before 2 huge games...what what? There is? And it's Purdue with an elite wide receiver. Oh no. Michigan State and Michigan have the Buckeyes' full attention. That much is never in question, but Purdue...I have nightmares of Purdue. The Buckeye offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders right now and is doing enough to give everyone heartburn. Garrett Wilson should be back this week to give Stroud his safety blanket. The good news is that the Silver Bullets seem to be reemerging after a few year hiatus. This is a big test for Denzel Burke. David Bell is a beast and the Boilermaker passing game is going to stress this defense. I really don't think this game will be a cake walk for the simple fact that Purdue is better than everyone thinks. Let's see if Stroud and Co. can start executing in the Red Zone and on big 3rd downs. I shudder to think what will happen if these struggles continue. Bucks win, but closer than you think. Pur: 21--OSU: 31

Seeberg:   Ok, there's NO WAY this can happen THREE times in a year...right?  RIGHT??  Unfortunately, this iteration of the Boilermakers is actually *gasp* good.  We all know they have an elite WR option, but they're also giving up fewer points and yards per game than the silver bullets *double gasp*.  Fixing the red zone issues for the Bucks' O would all but guarantee a win, and not fixing them will all but lead to another "that didn't feel very good" win or potentially another L.  At home, with their full attention on the ranked Boilers, I can't fathom a loss.  I also will be in the stands on Saturday and I can't remember the last time I saw them lose at home twice in a season...but whenever it was (if it ever happened), it's not happening this week.  Bucks don't cover (21?  really Vegas?) but win nonetheless).  Pur: 20--OSU: 34

Upset Special
Draper: Washington St. over Oregon
Hoying: Tennessee over Georgia (you heard it here first)
Schweinfurth: Maryland over MSU
Seeberg:  Virginia over Notre Dame