Thursday, October 07, 2010

Week 6--Conference Grind

Alabama Crimson Tide @ South Carolina Gamecocks

Gomer: Once again, one of these "oooo maybe something will happen" match-ups. Sorry, Alabama is the real deal. They may let you think for a while that your team has a chance at the upset, and then they pull the carrot away teasing you incessantly for honestly believing they would lose a game. The run game of Alabama will do the trick against the always-pesky Gamecocks. Bama: 35--SC: 17

Chief: Another big time game for the Tide on the road against a team who had a bye to rest up and prepare...something Saban's boys better get used to as 6 of their next 7 opponents (I believe) have a bye before the Tide. The Cocks have looked pretty good this year and certainly provide another big test for the number one team. They went to the wire against Auburn at Jordan-Hare but Bama is a different animal. The atmosphere in Colombia will be rocking and those fans are just nuts, but the Tide's discipline will carry through. I see a close game, but Garcia/Spurrier will make one mistake late to quell the upset. Bama: 27--SC: 23


Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines

Gomer: Very interested to see if the Wolves can survive this year's rivalry game with those pesky Spartans. Kirk Cousins is a questionable quarterback at best, as most MSU QB's tend to be. I have no idea how Michigan will stop the rushing attack of the Spartans, but if they want to force Cousins mistakes, they have to. Denard Robinson may be slowed, but he will not be completely contained. 6 games in, the Heisman Trophy will still be his to lose. MSU: 24--UM: 35

Chief: Here we go Michigan. Put up or shut up. If you want to be taken seriously, this is your chance. I will give credit where credit is due if you can pull off a win vs. a decent team. Robinson has been stunning, but against defenses kept out of the basement by the Wolverines ineptness(Basically, I'm slamming UM's defense). MSU has All American Greg Jones and a stout disciplined team under Dantonio. I think they band together and pull off a huge win for Sparty using fundamental football and smart playcalling vs. the flash of RichRod and Robinson. UM's defense makes Kirk Cousins look Heismanesque and Sparty retains Paul Bunyan's Trophy. MSU: 42--UM: 31


LSU Tigers @ Florida Gators

Gomer: I don't ever cheer for Florida, but I am completely okay with a Gator win in this SEC match-up. Les Miles is a freaking idiot. I have students who could do a better job coaching than him, and they don't understand football. The Gators get back on the winning track... for now. LSU: 14--UF: 33

Chief: Derpy derpy derp....that's Les Miles speak for 'How much time is left?' This is where the dumb luck runs out for Les. The Tigers are probably the most fortunate 5-0 team (and I'm including the defenseless Wolverines). They have survived in spite of rather than due to coaching. The Gators where absolutely smashed last week by a much better team. UF will have 2-3 losses by the end of the year, but the Swamp will carry them to a big one here. LSU: 13--UF: 31


Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes

Gomer: Miami will continue to be the 2010 version of the 2002 Washington State Cougars and help the Buckeyes strength of schedule with a big win against the arch-rival Seminoles. Jacory Harris will undoubtedly throw a few arm-punts in this game making FSU think they have a chance, but seriously when was the last time that happened? This game used to matter, and wouldn't you know it, moving rivalry games lessens their importance. Gene Smith sucks. FSU: 21--UM: 38

Chief: Maybe this game is back to some level of relevance. It's been a while since these teams mattered on a national scale, and it's still not a game of national importance...but it's getting there. There's a really good chance that this is the preview of the ACC Championship Game (the one that the conference was set up to have even though it's never happened). VT still needs to prove they can make a statement to oust these teams. FSU is back to form after the embarrassment in Norman and Ponder should be able to move the ball. Harris is still too interception prone to put the Noles away. FSU has the edge at QB so I'm going with them winning on the road (did you really expect me to pick Miami?). Jimbo is bringing his talents to South Beach! FSU: 27--UM: 23


Indiana Hoosiers @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes

Gomer: The Hoosiers may bring a high-power offense to Columbus, but that doesn't mean this game will be a shootout. The Silver Bullets will look to post their first shutout of the season, but it may be a struggle again. Like Chief, I thought it was fairly certain the Bucks would post one at Illinois, but for whatever reason some weird stuff started happening. I think Tressel is going to be very cautious using Pryor this week which will mean more chances for the stable of running backs to prove themselves. IU: 9--OSU: 41

Chief: Alright Bucks. Another mediocre road win but a win nonetheless. The weather played a factor, but the performance was not up to the Buckeye standards. It will be good to get the team home before the trip to Madison. IU is a much better offensive team behind the arm of Ben Chapell than Illinois but their defense is atrocious. Expect the Hoosiers to score, but to give up much more. Michigan actually gave the blueprint to the Buckeyes on how to beat IU: Rush 2 and drop 9. The IU offensive line is no good but Chapell can pick you apart (even in a few seconds) unless no one is open. The soft rush will get there before a receiver gets open. Also, cover number 2 (Ross?) because he's their only real threat at receiver. The banged up secondary needs some game time to get ready for Wisky. The mantra for the game (this one and all) is: Win...but for the love of God, DON'T LET PRYOR GET HURT!! IU: 13--OSU: 45


Other Games

Minn @ Wisc: Gomer: Wisc Chief: Wisc

BC @ NCSt: Gomer: BC Chief: NCSt

Ill @ PSU: Gomer: PSU Chief: PSU (close)

BGSU @ Ohio: Gomer: OU Chief: BGSU

OrSt @ Zona: Gomer: Zona Chief: Zona (big)

Pur @ NW: Gomer: Purdue Chief: NW

USC @ Stan: Gomer: Stan Chief: Stan

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

5 Things We've Learned--Week 5

1) The SEC has the WORST coaches in the league


I know SECSPN would rip me for this but it's the truth. There is immense talent in that league without a doubt and I would never say something bad about Saban (for fear of my life--note: he's the exception), but this weekend was an embarassment of coaching in that league. It's gotten to the point where the coaches (and interested media partners--looking at you worldwide leader---and CBS) spend more time talking up the conference to create a false excuse for the horrible blunders from the sideline. Les Miles finishes a game for which he should be fired and his comment is "Just another day in the SEC." I guess one interpretation would be a slam on the mediocrity of the conference and horrid coaching (sans Bama).


Let's start with the minor infraction by a coach considered 'one of the best', Mr. Urban Meyer. The Gator's have been the poster child of the SEC for the last 5 years or so (Praise Tebow), but their time has come and there's a new leader in town. The torch was passed last year in the SEC championship to the Tide. The beatdown in Tuscaloosa was more evidence of this phenomenon. Regardless of this transition, Meyer doesn't want to let go of Tebow. You know the play to which I'm referring. 4th and goal, 1st quarter, down 7-0 and Meyer calls the Tebow special: the jump pass. Look, I think the right call was to take the points, but if you want to go for it, fine. Worst case scenario is Bama gets the ball on the 1...or not. Jump pass is read by the Bama coaches before the play and Trey Burton (termed Tebow-Lite...tipping your hand maybe?) throws the pick in the endzone to not only give up the points, but also gives Bama favorable field position. Urban needs to realize that they need to play with an underdog mentality again even though it's been 40 games since they've been the underdog.


Now, to the abomination of the weekend. Baton Rouge featured the showdown for dumbest coach in America (won by the well-known Derek Dooley--who?). I was so excited when I saw Les Miles ineptitude bite him by substituting his whole offense with 10 seconds to go, snapping before the team was set, recovering the fumble, and the clock expiring. Hooray! He got his comeuppance....but wait. Dooley and his assistants sent 13 Vols on the field for the final play of ineptitude. Note: these extra defenders didn't influence the play at all. Dooley hands Miles another untimed down on which they score to end the game. In the words of Jerry Palm, CBS writer, "It's hard to out-dumb Les Miles, but if you don't put your mind to it, it can be done. Without referring to the myraid official failures on this play (1. not staying over the ball until UT had a chance to substitute which is allowed by rule, 2. not calling the personal foul for the LSU player spiking his helmet after his coach screwed them, perhaps I should stop there), both of these coaches better get either fired or severely questioned by their alumni/athletic director. Dooley is almost certainly an interim coach after the Lane Kiffin debaucle, but Miles better watch it.



2) The Heisman race is not over regardless of the media's perception



Watching ESPN and reading all kinds of coverage of college football, the 2010 Heisman Trophy has already been engraved with Denard Robinson. While he is absolutely the frontrunner (undefeated team, stunning video game numbers, dual threat QB, leadership, etc.), it is the first week of October.


What if Robinson trips over a curb tomorrow and breaks a leg? He's out.

He is the UM offense so he takes a ton of hits. What if he breaks when someone catches him (which most likely will happen)? He's out.

What if they play a real defense that knows how to tackle (see the next...oh 7 weeks)? He's out.

What if his team hits a losing skid and ends the season 6-6 or 7-5 (very possible)? He's out.

What if another candidate has a great stretch that sends his team into the title talk? He's out.



There is way too much time to call this a done deal when there are so many different scenarios still to come.



3) Everyone blaming the BCS for Boise's falling need to critically examine the situation instead of the knee jerk reaction.


So many people in the media have ambushed the AP poll and the coaches poll for jumping Oregon over Boise in the latest poll. Oregon has the best win outside of Bama of those high ranked teams and are deserving of jumping as high as 2 in the latest poll (this coming from a Buckeye fan). By saying this, I want to temper the statement by saying if OSU goes to Wisconsin and Iowa and wins both of those (impressively or not), they will deserve to jump back to number 2--Bama is still 1 until they lose, they've earned it.

Most of the talk I hear is centered on the 'outrage' that Boise can get jumped while thumping the horrid teams in their conference. Many blame the BCS to find an outlet that is in no way related to the argument. With or without the BCS, ordering happens based on who you beat and how you beat them. That's the nature of ordering. A playoff is supposed to heal all wounds in this scenario, but what happens if 2 non-conference champions round out the top 8? Right now it's Boise and TCU in the playoff. Are you suggesting that an uproar wouldn't come from Arizona, Michigan (State and Wolverines), Oklahoma, and the multitude of undefeated teams...not to mention the one loss teams vs. the top opponents? The sad truth is that every system misses something. A playoff makes us feel good about Boise and gives them 'their shot' but do they deserve a shot? Of course! Do they deserve it over many other teams? Not as clear.

My major point of contention is that the same people 'up in arms' about this are those who rail against preseason rankings for their 'bias' and affect on the championship picture. Let's look at it critically. Boise was number 3 in the preseason and everyone complained that they have no chance to jump into the top 2 without a top 2 team losing because of the horrible, evil, very-bad, no-good, rotten pollsters who vote with the sole intention of screwing Idaho. Yet, these same people say how wrong it is for an accomplished Oregon team who beat a good Stanford team to jump a Boise St. that has no wins of that caliber. It's a ludicrous double standard. If you want Boise to have the opportunity for moving up based on their body of work, they must also have the ability to move down based upon their body of work. The sad truth is this: Boise's does not have a win as good as any team above them (yes, OSU's win over Miami is better than Boise's over VT by a hair). The sadder truth is that they will not have a better win by season's end as their next best game is against the powerhouse Wolfpack of Nevada (I'm aware they played Oregon State and I stand by my statement).

Here's my solution. Keep the preseason rankings. They're fun and always a point of contention. But from week to week, the voters (coaches, media, and Harris) must be willing to allow the poll to fluctuate based on the entire body of work. The idea of you own the position until you lose is outdated and must go...unfortunately, there's about zero chance of that happening so we'll have to keep arguing here.

4) Conference rankings are garbage

I'm so sick of everyone's absolutely defiant opinions about which conference is the best. Here it is, the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth: NO CONFERENCE IS CLEARLY BETTER THAN ANOTHER IN THE BIG 4 (SEC, Pac 10, Big 12, Big Ten)--sorry Big East, you're terrible and sorry ACC but you just don't have the juggernaut this year--very competitive, but no standout. The Big 12 is hanging on by a thread with OU and Nebraska but Texas is really hurting.

The SEC is the de facto because they've been top heavy these last few years with Alabama and Florida (and LSU a few years back). Now, it's Bama at the top, UF, Ark, LSU, SC, and Aub in the ok but still haven't proved anything yet, and the rest is trash. The Big Ten has OSU at the top, Iowa, Wisc, MSU, UM, PSU, and NW in the ok but nothing proven and trash. The Big 12 is pretty much OU and Neb with some stragglers (what happened to Texas). And finally, the Pac 10 is getting way too much love...more to come (see point 5). Stop trying to order them because each conference has it's goods, oks, and citgos (bad). Just enjoy the game and see which team plays harder and comes out on top.





5) West Coast bias is starting to cloud judgement...yeah...you heard me.

I'm sure some people will come down on me here but I'm gonna say it. Slow down on the Pac10 talk. They've joined the party, but nothing special. Top to bottom, the Pac 10 has a very good Oregon team with a dynamic offense (and no defense); a good Stanford team that will only go as far as Luck takes them; a stout Arizona team that is the only team out there that plays defense (and will still play a major factor in the conference); and....well not much else. USC was gutted by sanctions and have already shown vulnerabilities; UCLA went on the road and exposed Texas (good win) but lost to Kansas St.; Washington beat USC in their house but got destroyed out of conference; Oregon St is the most overrated of them all getting beat by TCU and Boise (good teams) but catching them on bad nights--not to mention squeaking by Louisville at home; Cal got smoked by Nevada; Arizona St. had a stellar special teams unit they gave them a chance to pull off the upset in Madison but fell short with no offense; and Washington St is a train wreck.

All the 'east coast' reporters are quick to laud the Pac 10's 'reemergence' as the 'second best conference'. They're just pandering to the crowd to show how they've always been a supporter (false) so more people will read their column. This refers to point 4: this brought them back into the top tier, but can you really say they're better? The answer is no.

Sunday, October 03, 2010

Grading the Bucks Week 5--Illinois

Way to close Buckeyes. Sloppy game and yet...5-0

Offense: C
After having their way against Eastern Michigan (which they should have), the Buckeyes looked a bit shellshocked on the road. After I emphasized practicing the run against suck MAC opponents, we saw Saturday why I wanted that so badly. Tressel decided it was time to prove we can run in the Big Ten...and he failed. Our offensive line is exceptional at pass blocking (as we've seen all year) but looks like a bunch of old women when run blocking. They can't move defenders backward; they can't open holes; it's just no good for Big Ten play. We saw that the lack of run game development (including the runningbacks as Saine and Herron didn't do the line any favors) could cost the Bucks in the Big Ten. I fully expect Tressel to go back to the pass first offense in the future. Look for a more west coast offense as dropback passing game seemed successful (except when Posey drops easy passes) and the shotgun scramble is the best option running too--Pryor is our only runningback. We also saw that if Pryor goes down, it's 'bad news bears'. Kenny Guiton needs more reps for backup potential if the turf monster returns. It was on the road, but c'mon man.

Defense: B-
Many spoke to the defense as the focal point of the Buckeyes win, but I wasn't terribly impressed. Many of the defense's successes were directly caused by Illini failures. The Bullet secondary gave up some open passes but it seemed that Illinois had a case of the dropsies to help out. The adjustments were not made very well to cover number 11 (Fayson) when it was clear that he was the only serious receiving threat. Also, the run defense wasn't nearly as solid as we've come to expect. They were opportunistic and presented the bend-don't-break mentality that seems to be the norm, but I'd prefer the shut 'em down mentality. Illini showed that OSU will get every teams best shot, and they'd better be ready. Next week might actually be a tougher test so bring the wood. IU can throw the ball very well but we're back at home.

Special Teams: B
And the best grade goes to....the special teams?!? What happened? Well, to be honest, nothing happened...and that's a big time improvement. No missed kicks, no blocked kicks, no big returns. I'll take it. Why not an A for this unit? Can anyone answer? It has nothing to do with our mediocre return game...it's Jim Tressel's most important position, that is simply not very good. Ben Buchanan had a bad day punting which is not good for any Tressel team. He had a few punts that went about 30 yards which is just not acceptable. This is a big time concern for the unit. Buchanan has had better days but he needs to get it going in a hurry.

Coaching: B-
It's a week late coaches. I've been telling you to practice the run because it didn't work in the 20 or so carries a game vs. the MAC. The kinks had to be worked out before Big Ten play because you can't fix problems on the road in the Big Ten...even against the Illini. It's plainly clear that it's time to go 70-30 in passing plays to run plays--where Pryor scrambles/runs on 15% or so of the dropbacks. The O-Line blocks so well for Pryor so keep pushing. Defensively was a little timid, but no real problems. Injuries are certainly tough on this D.