Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Week 8 Picks---Look's like it's a bye week...FROM GOOD GAMES!!! BAZING!!

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper:
This is BY FAR, the game of the week. Sparty enters on a huge high after beating the hated rival...again, and Wisconsin comes in following their cream puff schedule. MSU has been playing with huge heart and has been the best defense in the B1G but Wisconsin is another story. I think Wisconsin will start slow as they're not ready for the defensive talent from Sparty, but the overall edge still rests with the Badgers. I see MSU jumping out to a quick lead but the lack of offensive talent will allow Wisconsin to slowly take back control of the game. UW: 24--MSU: 17
Auer: Michigan State has proven week after week that their defense is legit. Luckily the Buckeyes loss to the Spartans looks better and better, but how does MSU's loss to the Golden Domers look now? There's no way Wisconsin is going to be looking ahead to next week's night game at the 'Shoe, but me-thinks the Spartans are in for a let-down after another win over "big brother". I think UW is on the fast track to the BCS National Championship game after a big win in East Lansing. UW: 17--MSU:9
Hoying:
A week after these teams were established as the clear Legends and Leaders...uh...leaders (no, Penn State, you don't count), the two meet for what is probably the Big Ten clash of the year. Thanks to the new division format, this game will probably not play too heavily into the final B1G standings, but Wisconsin is hoping to stay in the national title chase and MSU needs to build up their resume if they're fighting for a second BCS spot. Wisconsin FINALLY gets to face a superior defense and I think the Badgers will have their hands full, but Russell Wilson is no Braxton Miller or Denard "Notorious I.N.T." Robinson. Notre Dame threw all over Sparty's defense, so this will be the week we find out just how good Wilson is. My guess is just good enough. UW: 21--MSU: 20
Schweinfurth: Ahh, the only game I am looking forward to this week. The big news out of this game will be the absence of William Gholston. Gholston is one of the main anchors for that nasty Spartan D and against the power running game (and containment of Russell Wilson), he will be sorely missed. This one will be old school B1G smash mouth football. The Badgers have one of last true power offenses in the country and they use it to their advantage. This game will be much closer than the experts think, but in the end, Russell Wilson wins the game for the Badgers and the Wilson for Heisman campaign will truly pick up some steam.
UW: 24 -- MSU -- 17

Auburn Tigers @ LSU Tigers
Draper: News flying on the wire that LSU has 3 players suspended including the 'Honey Badger'. Will it matter?.....No. Auburn doesn't have the horses to hang with the big boys in Death Valley. Jarret Lee or Jordan Jefferson will do enough to get over the 14 point mark that will seal it. Auburn took down the Gators but that was at home. Bayou Bengals win easily even with the suspensions. Aub: 10--LSU: 27
Auer: Auburn really isn't that good, LSU is. The interesting thing is the home team in this series has won 10 of the last 11 games. LSU is coming off of their largest victory ever over the Volunteers, and they'll continue to make things miserable for opponents. Aub: 7--LSU: 35
Hoying:
Hmm...LSU in Baton Rouge versus an Auburn team that's struggled to stop anyone but the two SEC East patsies they stumbled upon. Looks like an easy pick at first, but this is a potential trap game for the Tigers (the ugly purple ones). LSU may be looking ahead to the colossal showdown at Tuscaloosa, and Auburn has the right coach to match wits with Les Miles. Expect this game to come down to one team making a last-second stupid decision. That team will inexplicably win. Aub: 14 -- LSU: 16
Schweinfurth: Earlier this week, I would have said this game would be no contest. Granted I still think LSU wins, but the score will be much closer after LSU suspended several players this week. Regardless, LSU is the better team here and I think Auburn sticks around because of Les Miles and because Auburn has a tendency to stick around in games. Tigers win... Aub: 17 -- LSU: 38


Washington Huskies @ Stanford Cardinal
Draper: Here's a ranked matchup that no one is looking at because...no one knows that Washington is ranked. Keith Price has been phenomenal for the Huskies but the lack of national attention has hidden the slight resurgence in Seattle. Luck has been playing well but this is the first team that might actually be able to win the Sun Belt that they have played. Were it in Seattle, I might pull the trigger, but the TEs and the Luck factor in Stanford provide too much. UW: 27--Stan:38
Auer: This game shouldn't be close. Andrew Luck is legit, and will continue to prove it with another huge win over the Huskies. UW: 7--Stan: 41
Hoying:
For some reason, the Pac-12 continues to play football, so here's a great match-up of teams that are definitely undeserving of their rankings. Of these teams' combined 11 wins, the best one is probably...Washington's win over 3-3 Cal to start their yearly free-fall. Look for another West Coast shootout, as both teams feature excellent QB's and NO pass defense. Stanford has the edge in both, so they win. UW: 31 -- Stan: 45
Schweinfurth: To be honest, I don't know much about the Pac-12 outside of Arizona State, Oregon, and Andrew Luck. With that said I am just gonna pick a score. UW: 21 -- Stan: 45

USC Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Remember when this game was relevant? Yes, I know...it's still not important, but this is the best we've got. Kelly's offense has been chugging out tons of yards and should put up points (so long as they quit turning the ball over). USC has been playing pretty well, but they are still suffering from those suspensions. Barkley and Woods have been nice for the Trojan offense, but that's it. Neither defense is worth anything (USC's is still better than ND defensively). Unfortunately for the Trojans, the ND offense is much better than USC (again, without turning the ball over). I like the Irish in a shootout. USC: 27--Irish: 38
Auer: Screw Notre Dame. Go Trojans and dreamy Matt Barkley. USC: 41--ND: 28
Hoying:
My report of Notre Dame's death may have been exaggerated. The Irish have put together a decent season since their disaster in Ann Arbor, now that the turnover hemorrhage has dried up, but they face a better-than-expected Trojan team out for revenge after breaking the streak last year. USC, being from the other WAC, has beaten nobody on the way to 5-1, but the passing attack is a legitimate threat and Notre Dame, being Notre Dame, is lacking in pass defense. SC lacks the playmakers on defense to force enough turnovers to make a difference, and the Irish march onward to victory for the 2nd year in a row. USC: 24--Irish 35
Schweinfurth: This is the last chance for for Notre Dame to make a case to play in a BCS game this year and I'm sure this isn't lost on Brian Kelly. Notre Dame's offense is very good (just stay out of the red zone) and this isn't the USC defense of three - four years ago. USC's offense is adequate but the loss of Marc Tyler will hurt. I don't buy into Notre Dame's defense at all so I expect this game to be somewhat high scoring. USC: 28 -- ND: 38

Upset Special:
Draper: Duke over Wake, Northwestern over PSU
Auer: Purdue over Illinois
Hoying:
Purdue over Illinois
Schweinfurth: Da U over GT

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Five Thoughts on the Week that was: Week 7

1) Officials need to slow down their whistles

If you had the ability to stay up for the Oregon/ASU game, congratulations! You were treated to a decent game that started way too late. Late in the game (I believe late 3rd quarter) when the game was still in doubt, another fantastic ref blunder occurred that may have changed the outcome. Oregon's backup QB fumbled the ball on a nice run, an ASU player made a phenomenal diving play to keep the ball
in bounds, and ASU recovered it! What a turn of events! But....the official (who didn't have the correct angle on the play) blew the whistle too soon. Upon review, the ball was fumbled and recovered by ASU, but the referee couldn't change the call because of the inadvertent whistle. As I've been trained as an official, I feel free to comment that in football you never blow the whistle until you're SURE you know the play is dead. This is the worst mistake an official can make (trust me, I've made it and seen it made in intramurals and it sucks). There was no way to correct it even though everyone would admit that ASU got hosed. Of course, Oregon was the better team, but who knows what would have happened. Officials must be held accountable.

2) Just. Win. Baby.

I feel the need to comment on this after the passing of Al Davis. To often, the media hype surrounding the game of football (or other sports for that matter) have focused all the spotlight on glitz and flash. The top 10 highlights garner attention and touchdown passes are sexy. Lost in all this are the wins and losses. OSU will be a water cooler joke around the country this week for completing 1 of 4 passes, but I guarantee you the Illini fans won't see it that way. Ask Georgia Tech if they would have enjoyed an 'ugly' win over Virginia rather than a monumental collapse. ESPiN shows you that winning big is all that matters, but ask the players in the losing locker rooms if they'd prefer 10 highlights and a loss to an ugly walrusball style win. I guarantee you that the coaches and players will take the W any day.


3) Last week's slate of games SUCKED

Remember when I said there's no one good. This is when you feel it. The big games last week were
1) Pac12 showdown between a contender and an upstart no one believed had a chance

2) Big 12 showdown between a flashy offensive contender and a big name with little bite
3) SEC showdown between 2 of the last 3 teams to win a title that have fallen reasonably far
4) B1G showdown between Big Blue and little brother than has been the same outcome for 4 straight years...
Yawn. Everything comes down to Oregon/Stanford, Bedlam (OU/OSU), and Bama/LSU. Maybe throw in Wisky/(MSU, OSU) but seriously, where have all the fun intriguing matchups gone?

4) When will some of these contenders be tested?

Of the top 10, there are still 2 teams (3 if you count Boise) that have yet to be tested, and may not be. Stanford hasn't played a team with a pulse and Wisconsin's only 'big' game was against a supremely overrated Nebraska team. These teams may be for real, but looking at their schedules, there's not a lot of chances to prove it. Stanford has USC and Oregon but the remainder of their schedule is akin to the standard Boise State schedule (1 big game a year). This year, Boise doesn't even have that 1 signature game (no, I don't count UGA). Wisconsin has a big one next week in East Lansing, but no one sees Sparty as a complete team. OSU could come from nowhere to bite them but otherwise.... One big issue with no one being good is that it's hard to find proof that these teams touted as contenders are deserving. If Wisconsin wins comfortably in East Lansing, I'll buy. Stanford: Beat Oregon if you're for real, then we'll talk. Boise: sorry but enjoy the kid's table. You may be great, but we'll never know.


5) I don't wanna sound like a broken record but....

Read my last few weeks of ranting.
Refs: fail--see point 1
Commentators: SUPER FAIL--
This week, I couln't choose the dumbest crew between Davie and Wischusen attacking Zook for not going for a quick 80 yard score in the last 40 seconds before halftime, Brent clearly hitting the bottle and not watching the game, or Todd Blackledge saying how a QB protected the ball while going down as the video shows a perfect stiff arm of the ground. Oh yeah, then there's Craig James (Remember the 5!) and Jesse 'The Bachelor' Palmer. It's painful to watch anyone but Spielman and Meyer.
Teams: All suck
I keep waiting to be proven wrong, but every week provides more and more fodder for criticism. I love college football, but the media, shoddy officiating, and pure lack of quality teams (sans top 3-4) take away from the experience. In fact, the lack of quality isn't necessarily bad if there were parity but the few rich teams are taking away from the fun. In regards to the commentary, try this: listen to the commentary just to find out how many
a) grammatical errors
b) conceptual errors
c) subject matter mistakes
d) inane chatter that adds nothing to the broadcast
Remove all that and the crickets would take over. Tell me about X's and O's, not 'You have got to make that catch!' That adds nothing that my grandmother couldn't add--and at least she'd be able to explain the ins and outs better.

Bonus: I thought every play was reviewed...


Can we get at least a trained monkey in the booth for replay? Every game I watch, it seems that plays that are incorrectly called are not reviewed quickly enough (see OSU/Ill 25 yard completion) and those that are correctly called (so clearly that even those with radio can tell--yes, that's the joke) are always being reviewed. A Denard Robinson TD run was reviewed (about 2-3 minutes) when everyone at home could see it live. One replay showed it....game over. I'll give ESPiN credit on the replays they show us at home, but will someone explain to me why I can see the definitive replay before the next snap, but the monkeys in the booth are too slow to react--except when it's clearly unnecessary.

Monday, October 17, 2011

One more thing...Draper Index without Bowls/Championships

As the ranking is a pure system not based on percentages but rather win/losses, this can help or punish those who have extra games (bowls or conf championship games). Surprisingly, this was actually more accurate (TCU/Aub/OSU all overvalued from bowl wins last year). Here they are:

Draper Index (no bowls/championship games)
1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Oklahoma State
5) Boise State
6) Clemson
7) Oregon
8) Wisconsin
9) South Carolina
10) Stanford
11) Auburn
12) Arkansas
13) Nebraska
14) Virginia Tech
15) Kansas State
16) Michigan State
17) USC
18) Penn State
19) West Virginia
20) Michigan
21) Texas A&M
22) TCU
23) Washington
24) Georgia Tech
25) Ohio State

Week 7: Draper Index Released

My own personal computer ranking system was developed about 10 years ago (!!) to attempt to mirror the BCS rankings. They have correctly tabbed the two opponents in the BCS championship game all but one year.

This formula is based on 3 components:
1) Win/Loss
2) Strength of Opponent (when the game occurred)
3) Margin of Victory (capped at 21 with considerations for game site and opponent rank)

The rankings are tied to the previous year's ranking for an initial ranking (compressed) which leads to some problems early on but they work themselves out as the season progresses. Also, points are earned or lost for playing games (there are no points shifted during byes---points are based on win/losses not win percentage). With that being said, here we go.

In case you are interested, the worst team is.......New Mexico

Draper Index: Week 7
1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Oklahoma State
5) Boise State
6) Clemson
7) Oregon
8) Auburn *
9) Wisconsin
10) Stanford
11) South Carolina
12) Arkansas
13) Virginia Tech
14) Nebraska
15) Kansas State
16) USC
17) Michigan State
18) Penn State
19) TCU
20) Washington
21) Michigan
22) West Virginia
23) Texas A&M
24) Ohio State
25) Georgia Tech

Obviously, the biggest hiccup is Auburn at 8 (but there only losses are @ 6 Clemson and @ 12 Arkansas...so maybe not THAT crazy for now) but that's a remnant of the number 1 ranking entering the year. Also, OSU being at 24 and TCU at 19 are clearly too high but the artifact from last year's rankings. I'm pretty pleased considering the top 5 are spot on. Here's to another success.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

TS Index Week 8

After a one year hiatus, the TS Index is back.  I will try and post these every week to coincide with the BCS rankings just to give little more fodder to the rankings.  Take note that the are all computer generated and do not actually reflect who I believe should be ranked and where.  And here we go:

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma State
4. Boise State
5. Oklahoma
6. Michigan
7. Clemson
8. South Carolina
9. Stanford
10. Virginia Tech
11. Kansas State
12. Penn State
13. Nebraska
14. Wisconsin
15. Illinios
16. Michigan State
17. Texas A&M
18. Rutgers
19. Houston
20. Notre Dame
21. Georgia Tech
22. Oregon
23. Texas
24. North Carolina
25. West Virginia

Grading the Bucks: Week 7--Illinois-- That's better

Offense: B-

Everyone will spend time talking about the 1 completed pass (for a TD I might add), but the simple fact is that the Bucks were running the ball with success so, why change? Boom looked like he hasn't been suspended with some really hard runs. Braxton handed the ball off spectacularly and ran fine when needed. The O-Line looked good. I like it. It was boring, but it worked. In terms of execution, the Dave play worked well. My only beef was the lack of off tackle runs in favor of Dave up the middle. Boom was seeing the field so well so he should have been in a little more. Hall was ok but not as good. I liked Hyde better than Hall coming in, but to bring Hyde in for his first carry right after Illinois scored was dumb. Give me a steady dose of Boom with a sprinkling of Hyde and spread Hall out as a receiver. As W is a W.

Defense: B+

Howard....yes Travis Howard, makes a key interception to more or less seal the game. What the heck? He even looked like a competent corner on that one play which blew my mind...especially after giving a 20 yard cushion on every play previous. Watch the film. He was beaten on EVERY curl route with ease, but give credit where credit is due because he made a key play. Also, where has this Tyler Moeller been? He's been a lump on the field for 6 games and all of a sudden he's back to being a play maker with key tackles and forced fumbles. The D held strong and only game up the 7 points but I didn't give them an A for one glaring problem. Tackling. Every play in which the OSU D made a tackle, it seemed the ball carrier fell forward between 1 and 4 yards. That is not the Silver Bullet D I expect. They need to knock people backwards. This may be picky, but it is a MUST. Vrabel and Fickell can't be happy with the 70 or so yards given up after first contact. That is a point of pride that this defense needs to get. We forced 2 turnovers and were handed a 3rd. Got the job done this week, but need to clean it up for Wisky.

Special Teams: A-

Once again, the special teams comes up HUGE. Basil made an early kick to set the tone in a windstorm. Buchanan was placing punts with precision for the most part (I downgraded for a weak punt or 2 in the 4th quarter). Regardless, Buchanan has arguably been the MVP of this team thusfar. No big returns (the squib kicks worked SPECTACULARLY in the wind), no missed kicks, no turnovers. I'll take it.

Coaching: B+

Bucks score a rocking 17 points and set football back 100 years with 1 completed pass...and you know what? It was the EXACT right play. What have I been saying since the Miami game? Run. the. ball. Everyone is pining for a 'healthy balance' but I ask, why? Passing in that wind would have been a horrible decision; we don't have a QB who can throw a pass; we have very good running backs; the return of Boom was a breath of fresh air; and most importantly, IT WORKED! You coach to the players you have and the situation and they did well. That being said, the walrus (Jim Bollmen) should have called more than Dave up the middle and draw plays. Boom was running well and had great vision so get him into space. Everyone will use the 1/4 passing stats to snicker at OSU but the joke is on them as the Bucks were victorious. Don't get cute Fickell. Follow the late Al Davis' advice: Just Win, Baby!