Thursday, September 06, 2012

Week 2 Picks: BOOOOOORRRIIIIINNNNGGG!!!

After a relative snoozefest in week 1 that showed the Wolverines getting trounced and essentially limited those in serious national title contention to about 7 teams, one would think that this week must be more exciting....nope.  The 'big games' this week are some of the weakest I've ever seen.  Here's hoping for one GT-VT thriller because these games look awful.

Standings
1. Draper                     4-0 (1-0 upset)
1. Schweinfurth            4-0 (1-0 upset--he copied me)
3. Hoying                     3-1 (0-1 upset)
4. Auer                        0-0 (0-0 upset)

Games
Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies
Draper: The epic Gameday matchup that no one cares about.  Yes, it's TAMU's intro to the SEC, but Florida was embarassing in week one.  This being on the picks shows how much these games suck.  The Aggies week 1 game was postponed so we know very little about what to expect.  I do know, however, that the Gators looked terrible.  I expect the Aggies to win the SEC opener against a hapless UF offense. Which team will suck more? UF: 10--TAMU: 20
Auer: UF was able to earn valuable experience in last week's close win over Bowling Green. A&M will have a tough time game-planning for a team without a quarterback too. With an inexperienced QB for the Aggies playing at home under the microscope, it will not be an easy game. UF: 31--TAMU: 13
Hoying:  Two teams, no quarterback.  If you watched football last week, you saw a Florida team with no offense almost lose to a Bowling Green juggernaut with no kicker.  You also probably wondered where Texas A&M was.  (Just kidding, no one cares about Texas A&M.)  This strikingly mediocre program is going to get a rude awakening after jumping conferences to the SEC, but it's not going to be at the hands of the Gators.  Freshman Aggie QB Johnny Manziel leads his team to a victory and adds another burning coal under Florida coach Will Muschamp's hot seat.  UF: 13--A&M: 20
Schweinfurth: We are about to see if a team built to play in the Big 12 can survive in the SEC.  Texas A&M's offense over the last few years has been meh and the defense is a Big 12 defense.  I expect emotions to carry TAMU for a while, but in the end the Gators will prevail in the end (and maybe give the UF media something to talk about other than Urban).  UF: 35--TAMU: 14

Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Notre Dame had a great week one showing in Ireland, but Purdue is a sleeper in the Big Ten (for the hundredth straight year).  That being said, I believe the talent on the Irish is just simply better than Purdue.  The QB situation for the Boilers is a mess.  I expect the Irish to capture a convincing win that will propel them into the Top 5 (in Lou Holtz's rankings) before they face the Spartans. PU: 20--ND: 37
Auer: Admittedly not going with logic here. Notre Dame put the smack down on Navy WITHOUT their starting QB and RB... the Boilers put the smack down on EKU without their starter... but used former starter Marve. I hate Notre Dame, and somehow Marve will start and pull of the HUGE upset. PU: 23--ND: 21
Hoying:  This is a dangerous game for Purdue, mostly because they're vastly inferior to Notre Dame.  Don't get me wrong; the Boilermakers were one of five B1G teams (Ohio State, Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State) to not embarrass themselves last weekend, but the globetrotting Irish are not exactly Eastern Kentucky.  Senior Purdue QB Caleb TerBush will pose a bigger threat to the Irish defense than Navy's non-existent pass game, but Notre Dame's balanced attack is more than capable of piling even more points on a weak Purdue defense.  PU: 17--ND: 34
Schweinfurth: I guess Notre Dame is good (for Notre Dame as of late).  The Irish offense has another year under Brian Kelly and should be making strides.  It showed last week in the drubbing Navy took last week.  Purdue is a bit better than Navy and it will show on the field.  Purdue's offense put up impressive numbers against Eastern Kentucky but Robert Marve (yes, I expect Marve to start) won't fare as well against the Irish D.  Notre Dame wins in a bit of a shootout.  PU:28--ND:45

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ UCLA Bruins
Draper: Martinez had a solid 5 TD performance against Southern Miss but the Black Shirts were a little soft.  UCLA showed last week that their young team behind Brett Hundley can score some points.  I think the Bruins will put up some points but the Huskers snag the last score.  Expect a score fest in LA with the B1G grabbing a nice close win.  Neb: 41--UCLA: 38
Auer: Nebraska's flakiness may start to rival that of what used to belong to the Spartans. Offensively they were impressive against Southern Mississippi, but the defensive spunk was missing. UCLA is not without talent, starting QB Brett Hundley was impressive in the first win of the season (and he's really good in the video game), and this is the home opener for the Bruins. Nebraska must come ready to play, this will quite possibly be the best game of the weekend. Neb: 34--UCLA: 32
Hoying:  Is UCLA back?  The Bruins managed to turn some heads after piling up 646 yards in their last game.  However, that was against...Rice.  And UCLA also gave up 24 points to...Rice, none of which occurred during garbage time.  To be fair, Nebraska had a similar performance last week against Southern Mississippi, but Nebraska's been pretty solid the last few seasons.  The burden of proof is on UCLA, and it'll take a win against an opponent of this level to put them back on the map.  Problem is, Nebraska's offense is going to be tough to stop, even if star RB Rex Burkhead isn't ready to go.  Huskers win close.  Neb: 38--UCLA: 34
Schweinfurth: Both Nebraska and UCLA's offenses showed up big time last week.  Martinez with his 5 TDs and UCLA with 600+ yards of offense.  No Burkhead means this game will be closer than it should be.  This one will be high scoring and very entertaining to watch.  Neb: 49--UCLA: 35

UCF Golden Knights @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: The Bucks looked pretty solid in week one but the secondary remained a little questionable.  That being said, Dysert for the Redhawks was a pretty savvy experienced QB.  UCF is a sexy pick as a threat but I don't see them hanging with the Bucks.  They're a nice CUSA team, but they're not ready for the big time.  Miller's passing can only improve and his running has already been electric so I see 4 TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing) with Hyde chipping in 2.  Guiton comes in late to mop up.   The defense will relax here and there leading Coach Coombs to kill a kitten on the sideline--never let it happen again...  UCF: 16--OSU: 48
Auer: With the rainy forecast, and UCF's somewhat existent run game, this will possibly be a bit closer than anyone expects. Ohio State is a superior team all-around, but after a great opening weekend, there is bound to be a bit of a hangover. UCF: 22--OSU: 37
Hoying:  Welcome to the Ineligi-bowl.  Buckeye Nation is breathing a little easier after last week's coming out party, and the cream puff feast rolls merrily along with fellow bowl-ineligible UCF coming to town.  The Golden Knights are fresh off a dismantling of terrible terrible Akron, but don't look for them to put up too much of a fight.  If the UCF receivers can hang onto a pass, the game might be close for a quarter, but this game should be ugly.  Like "ESPN's sideline eye candy now that Erin Andrews is gone" ugly.  UCF: 13--OSU: 48
Schweinfurth: It's said that a team's biggest improvement happens between weeks 1 and 2.  We are about to find out if that is true for the Buckeyes.  Miami's pass happy offense moved the ball well against the Bullets but UCF is not a pass happy offense.  This should be a good time for the defensive line to flex their muscles.  I would expect the OSU D to force 1 or 2 more turnovers and more special teams chaos created by the "Freak Show."  I also expect there to be a bit of jitters to start the game on offense again. But, like last week, once the O gets rolling, Miller and the boys are going to put up some numbers.  OSU is better and it will show.  UCF: 14--OSU: 52

Upset Special:
Draper:
Out on a limb--Penn State over Virginia
Auer: Missouri over Georgia
Hoying: Iowa State over Iowa
Schweinfurth: Oregon State over Wisconsin

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Grading the Bucks: Week 1--Miami (OH)

The Urban Meyer era kicked off with a whimper for a quarter then an explosion for the remainder of the game.  There were many positives, but this team is by no means perfect or near the level of Bama or USC.  There is always work to be done, but I'll take a week 1 46 point win.

Offense: B+
Overall, there was a lot of excitement in the sense that we ran more than simple Dave off-tackle runs.  Miller is an explosive runner, but he's clearly still working to pick up the spread option attack.  He's extremely dangerous in the open field as the hapless Miami defender found out.  The first quarter was atrocious offensively as Miller looked like he reverted to high school thinking that he had to be the focus on every play.  Once he started distributing the ball to the backs and receivers, it opened the game up immensely.  I'm a little disappointed with the improvement (or lack thereof) in the passing game.  Braxton is continually throwing over receivers when he gets excited, but when he settles down, I see great potential.  The biggest positives on this side of the ball were the emergence of Hyde as a legitimate threat and more importantly, some actual receivers.  The receivers were a major question mark entering 2012 and they answered quite well.  56 points is hard to scoff at, but we can be much more efficient.

Defense: B
The line failed to get much pressure but I believe that was due to the dink-and-dunk offense run by a savvy experienced QB and the lack of a steady blitz.  I liked the run stopping ability of our D-line and linebackers when needed.  The biggest question continues to loom in the secondary.  Miami should have had an EASY 10 point cushion is not more if their receivers could catch a ball.  Roby looked pretty competent, but Howard continues to suck (don't give me the 2 INTs--he was burned all day).  I'm very concerned about the regression of Christian Bryant and C.J. Barnett as they were studs a few years back but they've seemed to lost most of their step.  The linebackers also have work to do in pass coverage.  Thankfully, we don't play a lot of experienced pass-happy QBs on the schedule, but it's a major concern going forward.

Special Teams: B+
A good special teams performance as nothing really shocking on special teams.  Yes, they scored a TD due to an errant snap but that was more a factor of Miami suck than OSU special teams.  The kicking game was fine, Buchanan looked good, kickoff coverage was fine.  Nothing flashy but nothing problematic.

Coaching: B+
Many will point to the loss of points with the decision to go for the TD at the end of the half.  I would have preferred a different play (I wanted a 5-wide; QB power run up the gut), but the decision was fine with the solid lead.  I felt the game was called pretty well offensively after the adjustment was made in the 2nd quarter to take the onus off Miller. Once he realized he had plenty of talent around him, he settled into a groove.  The defensive playcalling was to sit in coverage with 8 people and send 3 to help the less talented secondary.  I think the future will see more blitzing schemes to rush the QB as we saw more people in coverage didn't necessarily translate into better D. Urban's first game was a solid performance on both sides but he must love the fact that there is plenty on which to work.

Overall: B+
Not giving the A because I saw plenty of room for improvement, but I like what I saw from the 2nd quarter on after the debacle of last season.  Let's hope this continues in the future again better teams.  Don't sleep on the Golden Knights.  They're much better than most will give credit.