Week 9--Last call for undefeated teams?

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    23-10      (3-5 upset)
2) Draper               22-11      (1-7 upset)
3) Hoying              20-13      (1-7 upset)

UCLA Bruins @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: The premier game resides in Eugene.  Oregon's one win came over a very good, but beat up, Washington Huskies squad.  Can they do it against another up and coming program?  In Autzen, I think they are the big favorites.  UCLA stubbed their toe against Stanford last week which seems to be the formula for good teams playing Oregon (get softened up by Stanford first).  Mariota and Hundley will both have good games, but the road environment will be too much to overcome for the Bruins.  The football monopoly may be over in LA, but not so much in the Pac 12.  UCLA: 28--UO: 48
Hoying: Stanford ruins everything.  First they lose to Utah to spoil an undefeated Stanford-UCLA game, then they beat UCLA to spoil an undefeated UCLA-Oregon matchup.  Bruin QB Brett Hundley has finally come down to earth after a hot start, and I don't see him getting much more breathing room against a punishing Duck D.  On the other side of the ball, the UCLA defense doesn't have the horses to keep up with Super Mariota and company.  I don't see this being close.  UCLA: 20--UO: 52
Schweinfurth: I gotta keep these short this week due to personal time constraints.  I think this will turn into a second half blow out.  UCLA will stick with Oregon in the first half, but just too many offensive weapons for the Ducks.  
UCLA: 24--UO: 45

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Texas Tech is another one of those 'yeah we're undefeated, but...' teams. The schedule has been soft but Oklahoma hasn't faced a premier opponent yet either.  Big game Bob is really tough to beat in Norman and I don't think this year is any different.  The cinderella story with Kliff Kingsbury is a good one, but I think this game is above the ceiling for this year.  The future is bright in Lubbock, but the future is not now. TT: 24--OU: 31
Hoying: Savor these next three days, Red Raider fans.  Savor the fantasy of going undefeated and playing for a national championship before you fall flat on your face and slip to the middle of the Big 12 pack.  Texas Tech has looked impressive so far against the Little Sisters of the Poor, but it's time for big boy football, with 4 of the next 5 games coming against the top 4 teams in the conference.  And the most talented squad is up first.  Oklahoma has already proven themselves decent with a nice road win over Notre Dame, and they will continue to get stronger as QB Blake Bell continues to develop.  Sooners in a close one.  TT: 27--OU: 28
Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has come a long way but as I said previously, I think Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII.  Fortunately for the Sooners, it's not the Red Raiders.  TT: 21--OU: 34

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Missouri is on the rise and the Gamecocks are falling fast.  Looks like this could be a battle of backup QBs with Connor Shaw's knee.  Mauk was impressive last week against a stout Gator defense.  The backup for South Carolina has experience, but Missouri is riding the wave.  This is a tough one, but I'm going with the hot hand in a really close game.  HBC loses another heartbreaker on the road.  SoCar: 17--Mizzou: 20
Hoying: How long can Missouri weather the absence of James Franklin?  The Florida defense is no slouch, and Mauk and the Tigers carved them up worse than any opponent the Gators have yet faced.  Missouri appears to be for real this year, while South Carolina has struggled at times.  It's hard to see them getting better after losing QB Connor Shaw.  A Tiger win virtually seals the SEC East for Mizzou and puts them on a collision course with the winner of the Iron Bowl.  SoCar: 24--Mizzou: 34
Schweinfurth: Mizzou is rolling right now and Maty Mauk looked good this past week.  Blah, blah, Jedeveon Clowney, blah, blah, he won't be a factor. SCAR: 20--Mizzou: 40

Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon State Beavers
Draper: I wanted this for an upset special.  I have not been particularly impressed with Stanford this year and I've made that clear with my picks.  Oregon State is the forgotten team in the Pac 12 after an early loss to FCS Eastern Washington.  Mannion has been fantastic and the passing game in general has been unstoppable.  Stanford can match up on the lines, but this west coast dink and dunk offense will give them fits.  Corvallis is usually home to one upset a year and this is it (even though OSU is pretty good).  Stan: 30--OSU: 34
Hoying: There's only one reason to consider picking the Beavers in this game: QB juggernaut Sean Mannion.  The junior leads all NCAA passers and is a true difference maker.  However, let's look at the defenses he's seen.  Eastern Washington.  Hawaii.  Utah.  San Diego State.  Colorado.  Washington State.  California.  You may recognize 1 of these as an FCS team, and 2 of the others made Ohio State's backup quarterback look like Peyton Manning.  What will Mannion do when he faces not just the first competent defense he's seen all year, but an excellent one?  The Beavers get blasted, that's what happens.  Stan: 45--OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oregon State has recovered nicely from that week 1 upset.  Remember, this team almost went undefeated a year ago.  I expect Stanford's slide to continue. Stan: 14--OSU: 31

Penn State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeye defense stepped up in the 2nd half last week and they'll need to be on this week vs. Hackenburg.  PSU has been somewhat of a yo-yo team, but the scholarship reductions and sanctions are beginning to show.  This is Urban and the Buckeyes stage to turn some heads.  Penn State has the name recognition to make a big win here mean something.  Time to unleash Braxton and Carlos to show the nation the Bucks are for real.  Style points don't matter any more, but they certainly don't hurt.  The defense will be good enough and the offense will (finally) have their way.  The most important part is the halftime show this week (I helped design it).  Hope everyone enjoys! PSU: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: Another year, another scrappy Penn State quarterback with lots of moxie.  Here's how this one will play out.  Hackenberg will come out and throw for 200 yards in the first half as Penn State keeps it close.  Then Carlos Hyde will start eating defenders, starting with the scrawny DBs and working up to the meaty linemen.  When he's sated, he'll leave Jekyll behind completely and enter full-on beast mode, scoring repeatedly and at will.  Meanwhile, Hackenberg will throw 3 or 4 pick-sixes and Brent Musberger will feign sympathy as he thanks his lucky stars that his bet on Ohio State to cover won't result in his legs getting broken.  Then, Mark May and Gary Danielson will lambaste the Buckeyes for another lackluster win over a weak opponent, while Lou Holtz desperately tries to juthtify Ohio Thate'th exthellent thschedule and Brackthton Miller's athtounding talent.  PSU: 17--OSU: 38 
Schweinfurth: This game is a bit scary for me.  The Ohio State secondary has been just shy of gawd awful at times.  But then I remember it's PSU (Pick Six University) and it's in the 'Shoe at night.  If the Silver Bullets come out flying like they did against Wisconsin, this is over in a hurry.  Roby gets the pick six and Buckeye nation will finally exhale about his play.  Braxton FINALLY throws for 300+ yards and El Guapo goes for 150+.  It's a big night for the Buckeye offense and The Chase rolls on. PSU: 24--OSU: 50

Upset Alert
Draper: Minn over Nebraska (but the real one is Oregon State)
Hoying: Tennessee over Alabama
Schweinfurth: NCSt over Florida State (sorry Chief, I called this on Monday)

Top 25 and Heisman Ballots

Rankings, as always, are based on what teams have done so far, not how we believe they will finish.

Draper Top 25
1. Alabama
2. Florida State
3. Missouri
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Baylor
7. Clemson
8. Miami (FL)
9. Texas Tech
10. Stanford
11. Auburn
12. UCLA
13. LSU
14. Texas A&M
15. Oklahoma
16. Fresno State
17. Virginia Tech
18. Wisconsin
19. UCF
20. Louisville
21. Oklahoma State
22. Nebraska
23. South Carolina
24. Northern Illinois
25. Oregon State

Draper Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB-FSU)
2. Marcus Mariota (QB-Oregon)
3. Johnny Manziel (QB-TAMU)

Hoying Top 25
1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Missouri
4. Ohio State
5. Oregon
6. Stanford
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. UCLA
10. UCF
11. Clemson
12. Baylor
13. Oklahoma
14. Fresno State
15. Michigan
16. Virginia Tech
17. Texas Tech
18. Northern Illinois
19. South Carolina
20. Louisville
21. Nebraska
22. Notre Dame
23. Michigan State
24. Texas &M
25. Houston

Hoying Heisman Ballot
1. Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
2. Johnny Manziel (QB--TAMU)
3. Marcus Mariota (QB--Oregon)

Schweinfurth Top 25

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
5. Baylor
6. Missouri
7. UCLA
8. Miami (FL)
9. Clemson
10. Stanford
11. Texas Tech
12. Auburn
13. Oklahoma
14. Washington
15. LSU
16. Fresno State
17. Wisconsin
18. Virginia Tech
19. Oklahoma State
20. Michigan
21. Texas A&M
22. Georgia
23. Nebraska
24. Northwestern
25. South Carolina

Schweinfurth Heisman Ballot

Jameis Winston (QB--FSU)
Marcus Mariota (QB--Ore)
*I can't think of a third person that deserves my vote (and yes that includes Johnny Football).

Grading the Bucks--Week 8: Iowa

Offense: B+
Overall, this was a nice game for the offense.  Hyde ran hard, Braxton looked good both throwing and running, receivers caught passes, and the line did their job.  It's not an A because nothing special happened.  Iowa is a so-so team and I didn't see the absolute dominance that I believe we should have seen.  Wilson was affecting the game in multiple ways (see the safeties reaction to play action on the Philly Brown TD).  He is certainly a weapon, but his size may be a liability down the road.  Hyde was beastly when we needed.  Not too much to complain about except only 34 points against Iowa... I like the 0 in the turnover column, but that fumble by Braxton at the end of the game...can. not. happen.

Defense: C
I'll take the flack for this from the 'bloggers' and those that want to do their best to seem unbiased: the Roby hit was not an ejectable offense.  The helmets grazed but only after the tight end turned into it.  Roby's hit was with the shoulder and the follow-through caught the edge of the helmet.  Many say it's textbook targeting, but I completely disagree.  His feet do not leave the ground; the crown of the helmet makes no contact; intent is clearly to dislodge the ball, not to injure a 'defenseless' receiver.  We've gotten to a point that laudable defensive plays are now illegal.  Ask Ferentz and I'm sure he'd say it was a good hit (but probably not to the media).  Perhaps that's where we're at in football now, but I firmly believe that you can indeed judge intent and the helmet to helmet was an incidental blow.  He absolutely wrecked the receiver, but not in a way that wasn't in line with the rules (or if you want to really argue, my belief in the rules).
Now, about the defense.  Iowa is not good.  I was less concerned with the pass defense (I know they suck) than I was with the run defense.  Our rush ends are very fast (like SEC fast--sarcasm), but Iowa played traditional B1G football and pushed us back.  The line of scrimmage was habitually established 3 yards downfield.  Seems that the recruitment of big fat cornfed boys might be needed at times.  The boons to the defense were the adjustments made in the second half.  Sans one total break down play (how does a safety or CB not catch a tight end?) the defense was quite good in the second half.  Tressel's teams were always slow after a bye and hopefully, this is a bye hangover.  Need to bring it at all times and we didn't bring consistent energy and enthusiasm for 60 minutes.

Special Teams: B
No punts...no problems...no missed kicks.  Woo.

Coaching: B+
The defensive coaches did a very nice job at halftime fixing the issues.  I thought the intensity (overall) in the second half was increased and that's a coaching plus.  For the intensity of the first half being lax...that's a minus.  The offense looked pretty good, but not very many explosive plays.  I still question if the coaches trust Braxton to throw the deep ball on a consistent basis. Our receivers are better than they get credit for.  Use them.  Not a knock on Hyde, but his beastliness should open up the passing game.

Overall: B
Win.  Yay! 10 points over Iowa. Hmmm... Style points don't matter (and never really have) with the schedule.  Just keep winning and let the other teams fall by the wayside.

Missing the BCS National Championship? How likely is it?

Shortly, the freshly minted BCS rankings will be released.  Alabama is a lock for #1, and #2 will most probably be Oregon (or maybe Florida State).  Meanwhile, 5 other undefeated BCS conference teams (Ohio State, Missouri, Baylor, Miami, and Texas Tech) will be stuck looking up at the 3 clear favorites, wondering whether an undefeated season will be enough for a shot at the title.  With the end of the regular season just 7 short weeks away, everyone from ESPN to the Bleacher Report will be crafting their doomsday scenarios where 3, 4, or 5 teams finish unbeaten.  They’ll talk about style points and weak schedules and SEC supremacy.  They’ll debate whether a 1-loss Alabama deserved to get in over an undefeated Texas Tech.  But how likely is it that we’ll have much of a controversy at all?

***Opinion disclaimer: the only controversies worth talking about are ones in which one undefeated team is picked over another.  If you can’t win all your games, and you don’t play in a power conference (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC), you don’t have an absolute right to play in the title game.  One 1-loss team getting picked over another isn't controversial, unless it’s 2011 and a team that lost its division gets a rematch against a team to which it already lost.***

As stated before, there are currently 8 undefeated teams from power conferences (sorry, Northern Illinois and Fresno State).  This may seem like a lot, but how does it compare with previous years?  Following is a yearly list of how many teams from power conferences were undefeated when the initial BCS rankings were released (Big East counts as a power conference historically).

1998: 6 teams
1999: 5 teams
2000: 4 teams
2001: 7 teams
2002: 7 teams
2003: 3 teams
2004: 5 teams
2005: 7 teams
2006: 6 teams
2007: 5 teams
2008: 5 teams
2009: 5 teams
2010: 7 teams
2011: 8 teams
2012: 10 teams + ineligible Ohio State

Median: 6        Mean: 6

So the 8 undefeated teams this year constitute an unusually high count, but not by a wide margin.  It may seem, then, that we’re more likely to see a multiple-undefeated-team controversy this season.  In a way, yes, but we’re overlooking something.  In each year of the BCS, the undefeated field was culled by some of the teams playing each other.  For example, upcoming in this season, Alabama plays Missouri, Baylor plays Texas Tech, and Florida State plays Miami.  This means, that at worst, we’ll have 5 undefeated BCS contenders at season’s end.  How does this adjusted number compare to the worst-case scenarios from previous years?

1998: 5 teams
1999: 5 teams
2000: 3 teams
2001: 4 teams
2002: 6 teams
2003: 2 teams
2004: 5 teams
2005: 4 teams
2006: 3 teams
2007: 5 teams
2008: 3 teams
2009: 4 teams
2010: 4 teams
2011: 5 teams
2012: 5 teams + ineligible Ohio State

Median: 4        Mean: 4.2

We’re still at the higher end, but not abnormally so.

The last list shows that over the course of the BCS, we've had the potential for a multiple-undefeated-team controversy every single season except 2003 (where, oddly, the BCS ended up having the greatest controversy, though for a different reason).  How many times, then, have we seen greater than two undefeated teams at season’s end?

Twice: in 2004 (USC vs. Oklahoma, Auburn left out), and in 2009, (Alabama vs. Texas, Cincinnati left out).

In fact, in 6 years (1998, 2000, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2012), only one team finished undefeated, and in another 3 years (2003, 2007, 2008), NO teams finished undefeated.  The teams that did not make it through unscathed lost an average of 1.9 games each.

Were we ever close to another controversy?  Notable close calls came in 1999 (Florida State and Virginia Tech went undefeated, Kansas State had 1 loss), 2002 (Miami and Ohio State went undefeated, Georgia had 1 loss), and 2010 (Oregon and Auburn went undefeated, Michigan State had 1 loss).  It’s interesting to note that all of these potential controversies were resolved by mid-November.

But, you might inquire, the teams who averted disaster by losing must have lost to some quality opponents, and look at the cupcake schedule Ohio State, Baylor, Miami, etc, has remaining!  However, a glance the past 15 seasons reveals that, of the 70 previously undefeated teams who lost down the stretch:

15 of them lost to opponents with losing or .500 records
32 more lost to opponents with fewer than 10 wins
6 more lost to other teams that were undefeated when the initial BCS rankings were released

Only 17 teams had to be taken down by an elite opponent that wasn't also in the BCS title hunt.

The upshot: don’t worry too much if you’re a Buckeye, or Bear, or Hurricane fan.  Chances are (1) your undefeated team won’t get shut out of the BCS championship, and (2) you’ll probably have 2 losses by that point anyway.