Week 7 - From SEC West Supremacy to a B1G East Race to the Bottom

Standings

1) Draper               20-9    (3-3 upset)

2) Schweinfurth     18-11    (3-3 upset)

2) Hoying               18-11    (3-3 upset)

2) Seeberg              18-11    (0-6 upset) Seriously, you picked Michigan?  HEY...they covered, sheesh.

Now that the dust has settled on a wild week 6, the madness ramps up again with another week of SEC West matchups, a battle of Lone Star undefeateds out in the Big 12, and another bye week for our beloved Bucks in this long playoff chase.

Oh, and Penn State travels to Michigan with the inside track to last place in the B1G East on the line, but you'll have to read about that elsewhere.

Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs

Draper: I've been big on Mississippi State all year and down on Auburn.  While the Tigers have been very impressive, their resume is fairly spartan.  MSU's win at LSU is becoming less and less impressive, but Dak Prescott is having a fantastic year (with Gurley and Jameis all but eliminated by missing a game, he's leading the Heisman race by a fairly sizable margin).  I remember in the early 2000s when Starkville was a place to be feared and I think it's coming to that again.  I don't think MSU is an all-timer of a team, but I think they are more battle-tested and up to the challenge.  I don't expect an undefeated season, but CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA strikes again in a nailbiter.  CLANGA! Aub: 31--MSU: 34

Hoying: Can Mississippi State handle success? Two years ago, the Bulldogs started 7-0 feasting on a cupcake schedule including Kentucky, Tennessee, and...Auburn (post-Cam Newton), then proceeded to get blasted three weeks in a row by Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU. Last week's dominating win over the Aggies seems to be more impressive than anything MSU has done since I've been watching college football, but the jury's still out how just how good A&M is this year (oooh, you beat South Carolina, just like...everybody else). At any rate, Bulldog QB Dak Prescott has blasted his way into SEC MVP and Heisman discussions, throwing for at least 2 TDs in every game except a garbage matchup against South Alabama, and rushing for nearly 500 yards in 5 games. Auburn's strength continues to be running the ball, but Mississippi State does it better. The only question for the Bulldogs is whether they can finish games strong. In their last two games, MSU gave up 19 and 14 unanswered points when it looked like the game was over. Auburn has the firepower to make the Bulldogs pay if they're caught sleepwalking, but I think they'll keep their eye on the prize this week: a possible #1 ranking. Aub: 21--MSU: 34

Schweinfurth:  I keep thinking that both of these will lose.  On that fact, for once, I'm right.  I still don't think either of these teams are top 10 worthy but they are both undefeated.  Still no one has been able to stop the Auburn rushing attack.  Combine that with the position the Bulldogs are in and I think Mississippi State is primed to fail.  Aub: 35--MSU: 31

Seeberg:  I...I just don't know about this game.  Auburn handled LSU easily, but the Bayou Tigers are down a bit this year.  The same can be said about the Bulldogs' defeat of a largely unproven Texas A&M team.  I think this game will come down to 3rd down conversions.  Dak Prescott is a better on obvious passing downs, and Auburn's vaunted rushing attack is just too one-dimensional to score enough in Starkville.  Aub: 20--MSU: 31

Oregon Ducks @ UCLA Bruins

Draper: Oregon always craps the bed at some point in the season (usually somewhat inexplicably).  After the loss, they almost always demolish their next foe.  UCLA has played with fire all year (except vs. ASU), but it bit them last week as the Utes took them down.  I'm leaning toward Oregon righting the ship because some things can be fixed or ignored as a one-off, but UCLA's offensive line cannot be ignored.  Hundley is getting sacked left and right (more like Houston Texans David Carr...amirite?).  Ducks quack their way back into the national spotlight with a big win.  Ore: 41--UCLA: 24 (just looked at Seeberg's score--DANGIT)

Hoying: It's tempting to say that this game has become a lot less interesting after both teams choked at home last week. However, in the playoff era, it's no longer the drop between undefeated and one loss that's devastating, it's the drop between one loss and two. With the balance in the Pac-12 this season, the loser could still win out and probably take the conference title, but they'd run a terrible risk of being the #5 Power 5 champion in a four-team playoff world. So what happened last week? Oregon's O-line couldn't stop anybody from getting through, and UCLA's O-line...also couldn't stop anybody. It's going to be open season on elite quarterbacks this Saturday, and the key will likely be which D-line can take advantage of the opportunity. Oregon has 16 sacks on the season, while UCLA has only 7. Oregon has 38 TFLs; UCLA has 26. Do the math. Ore: 37--UCLA: 30

Schweinfurth: I keep going back and forth on this one.  Then I looked at the highlights of UCLA.  That offensive line...woof.  Yup that will be the difference here (even though Oregon's D can look like Swiss cheese at times).  It'll still be a fun one to watch. Ore: 45--UCLA: 38

Seeberg:  Well, Oregon went all, uh, Oregon last week, scoring a measley 24 points at home against a team that gave up 45 points to Cal.  UCLA's sieve-like offensive line finally caught up to them in an equally unimpressive loss against Utah.  I expected both teams to be undefeated heading into this game and would have given the slight edge to UCLA given home field and Brett Hundley.  In this scenario, however, I trust Mariotta more to get his squad to bounce back.  Ore: 41--UCLA: 24

TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears

Draper: Are the Horned Frogs for real? After dispatching OU at home in one of the many ridiculous games last weekend, TCU gets no favors as they head to Waco to face the Bears.  Baylor has been very quiet this year with Bryce Petty's being banged-up and such.  No one is talking about the #5 team in the country...until now.  Baylor has been waiting for their oppotunity to explode onto the scene and I think this is their chance.  Yeah, defense wins championships....blah blah blah.  This isn't a championship.  This is a big time game after TCU pulled out all the stops to beat OU at home in a huge emotional win.  Baylor is ready to leave it all out there this weekend and will overwhelm the drained Frogs.  TCU: 24--Baylor: 34

Hoying: Another year, another few games of Baylor crushing a few garbage opponents to open the season. The Bears feature the top scoring margin in the country, even ignoring a 70-6 dismantling of Northwestern State. However, coming it at #3 on the same list is TCU. You might counter that TCU certainly didn't beat Oklahoma by any grand margin, but last week reveals something even more troubling about Baylor. Playing a bad Texas team, Bear QB Bryce Petty played like garbage. Barely 100 yards passing, 31% completion rate awful. This is the same Texas secondary that let UCLA's backup QB beat them. Yes, the Oklahoma win was at home, and yes, traveling to Waco is a different animal, but TCU is just a better team, and dual-threat QB Trevone Boykin should keep the Horned Frogs in the thick of a tight Big 12 championship race. TCU: 34--Bay: 27

Schweinfurth: TCU had a nice little win over Oklahoma.  The big question is, can they shut down another Heisman candidate in Bryce Petty?  I'm not so sure, but then again, the Bear defense is just horrendous.  I think TCU can make at least one stop in this game and it will be enough.  TCU: 42--Baylor: 38

Seeberg:  And suddenly this game got WAY more interesting after TCU's upset last week.  (Side note:  Anyone, even 5 years ago, who tells you they KNEW that Baylor and TCU would be the best two teams in Texas is a lying sack of manure).  Baylor has been steamrolling opponents until they hit the Longhorns, only scoring 28, and it's hard to imagine that offense laying an egg two weeks in a row.  Then again, Bryce Petty struggled and was beaten in his last game of consequence against UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.  Still, Baylor scored 42 in that contest, and that should be enough points to get them a win at home.  TCU: 34--Baylor: 42

Ole Miss Rebels @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: TAMU has been living on a win over South Carolina in the opener that hasn't matured at all (in fact, it's rotted).  I haven't understood the hype they've been getting which is why I jumped on the CLANGA bandwagon last week.  Now the Rebels come in after the biggest win in school history.  Dr. Bo had a really nice game against the Tide and Nkemdiche and the Ole Miss defense was just nasty.  All signs point to Ole Miss keeping it rolling. But... As soon as last week ended, the Rebels acted like they had just won the Championship.  It looked like they emptied the chambers to get their signature win.  Bama isn't the Bama of the last 5 years.  Ole Miss has a great team, but Dr. Bo is ready for a faceplant. Kyle Field is the place.  I have NO faith that A&M is really any good....but I think they're good enough at HOME to take down another 'spent' team.  If the Rebels limit mistakes, they should take the win, but I don't think they will.  Ole Miss: 24--TAMU: 27

Hoying: Whom has Texas A&M beaten this season? South Carolina, the team that just lost to Kentucky? Winless SMU? Arkansas (in overtime)? The Aggies were exposed last week in Starkville as a less-than-serious SEC competitor in the brutal West division, but they can earn a quick redemption with a win over one of America's hottest teams, the Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebs' win over Alabama was no accident: Ole Miss features a punishing defense the likes of which the SEC hasn't seen in a couple of years. And shhhhh....but QB Bo Wallace might be just as good as A&M gunslinger Kenny Hill. The outstanding recruiting is finally paying off; Ole Miss is a genuinely elite team and not to be taken lightly. I don't think the Aggies are good enough to stop them. Ole Miss: 31--TAMU: 17

Schweinfurth: Ole Miss can't really be a top 5 team right?  Seriously I'm not buying.  What I am buying is the upset hangover they will have coming into this game.  The Aggies have a better offense than Alabama and will surely test that defense.  Ole Miss: 35--TAMU: 42

Seeberg:  As the season has progressed, A&M's "signature" dismantling of South Carolina looks less like a John Hancock and more like an outright forgery.  They only scored 17 meaningful points against Mississippi State last week and Ole Miss's D is likely even better.  What's more, even if the A&M offense shows up and competes, their defense just doesn't have the playmakers to make Bo Wallace pay for the 2-3 head-scratching throws he typically (ignoring last week) makes in a given game.  The college football world will indeed remain Mississippi-centric.  Ole Miss: 38--TAMU: 21

Upset Special

Draper: USC over Zona

Hoying: Washington State over Stanford

Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Alabama

Seeberg:  Toledo over Iowa State