Thursday, September 29, 2016

Week 5: 3 -- count 'em, 3! -- Top ten battles!...and Rutgers

Standings
1) Schweinfurth    8-5        (2-1 upset)
2) Hoying              10-7        (1-3 upset)
3) Draper               9-8        (2-2 upset)
4) Seeberg             8-9        (1-3 upset)

Stanford Cardinal @ Washington Huskies
Draper: This matchup of top ten foes just looks like a sham to me.  I don't buy either of these teams as serious contenders, but they keep winning.  UW went to OT vs. the Wildcats while Stanford would have lost had I not picked them to be upset (kiss of death).  McCaffrey is a stat monster, but there just isn't enough power in Stanford to look for greater things.  The Huskies have some flash, but are relatively unknown.  I'm sticking with my gut and leaning to the home squad.  When Husky Stadium gets rocking (and the game is Friday night so it will be), they're tough to beat.  Stan: 24 -- UW: 28
Hoying: Is Chris Peterson finally the answer Washington has been looking for? 1991 and a national championship win over Desmond Howard and the Wolverines feels like an eternity ago to the loyal faithful in Seattle. Know what doesn't seem like an eternity ago? 2014, when the Huskies started 4-0 and then lost a heartbreaker to the Cardinal en route to a disappointing 8-6 campaign. Or 2013, when UW started 4-0 and lost another stunner to Stanford before finishing 9-4. The Pac-12 North (heck, the whole conference) is ripe for the taking for the winner of this one. UCLA showed that Christian McCaffrey can be contained, somewhat, but the Husky D was no match for the RichRod attack, barely escaping Tucson with a win. A healthy dose of "Stanford football" should maintain the status quo out west. Stan: 28--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: Washington is back?!? Well, maybe in the Pac-12. Chris Peterson seems to be putting his stamp on a team that has more than floundered the last few years. Do I actually think they will win this game? Probably not. Stanford has an excellent defense and Christian McCaffrey tore them up last year. I expect more of the same this year. The Huskies stay in this one because of their offense, but the Stanford Steamroller keeps rolling. Stan: 38--UW: 28
Seeberg:  Wait what?  Washington is in the top ten?  What is this 1997?  I'm fairly certain they haven't beaten a ranked team since the male Clinton era.  Stanford, meanwhile, keeps chugging along.  The USC win doesn't mean much these days as the Trojans are essentially a dumpster fire at this point.  However, Washington's best win was a 35-28 win over the Arizona RichRods, not exactly a powerhouse themselves.  The Huskies might very well win this game, but I haven't seen enough out of them yet to convince me of that.  I do know, however, that the Cardinal have Christian McCaffrey and an experienced team that rarely beats itself.  Running the ball and not making mistakes is a solid recipe for winning on the road.  Stan: 34--UW: 24 

Louisville Cardinals @ Clemson Tigers
Draper: A lot of people are selling Louisville assuming a fluke win over the Noles.  I'm not so sure that's the case.  Lamar Jackson is being oversold greatest QB of all time, but he's still very good.  He's a very dynamic runner with a decent arm that will improve over time.  Desean Watson has been regarded similarly to Jackson, but last year.  Clemson hasn't been up to the expectations yet but I think this is the time when they hit their stride and the Cards get a little humble pie.  Make no mistake, these teams are both extremely good, but Clemson has a little more talent on both sides as well as a sizable home field advantage.  It's close, but the dream remains alive for a 3-way ACC Atlantic tie.  Lville: 28 -- Clem: 31
Hoying: Handling success requires strong character. After hearing for 9 months about how great they were and how they would walk back into the playoffs, Clemson has looked pretty crappy in their opening month. One gets the feeling they could wake up at any time, but we're not exactly talking about a 2015 Ohio State or a 2007 Florida (or, presumably, some really good non-Urban Meyer coached team at some point) that's loaded with blue chips at every position. And the visitors are hungry, eager to make an impact on the playoff chase in just their 3rd year in a major conference (depleted Big East doesn't count). No team has demonstrated a clue on how to stop Lamar Jackson (maybe if their defenses were a little more basic), and until one does, I'm not picking the Cardinals to slow down any time soon, even in a resurgent ACC. Lville: 45--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Let's be honest here, I don't believe in Louisville. Seriously. Lamar Jackson has won the September Heisman...good for him. Everyone has started to forget that Desean Watson is actually the best quarterback in this game. I fully expect the Cardinals to score, but Clemson will be able to get the necessary stops to win. Clemson moves on, if only to get Clemsoned very soon... Lville: 42--Clem: 45
Seeberg:  I....I just don't know who is gonna win this one.  On its BEST day, I really don't think Clemson could house FSU the way Lamar Jackson and Co. did a couple weeks ago.  In hindsight, Florida State had no chance as Papa John's Stadium (I'll pause to let that linger and allow the readers to shudder that that actually exists) was hosting it's first nationally relevant football game since...well, ever.  I just can't picture the Cardinals conjuring that much magic with Howard's Rock nearby.  Clemson has awoken from its early season slumber just in time to take out a fellow top five foe.  Lville: 31--Clem: 38

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan Wolverines
Draper: I just can't buy the Badgers because they are enormously inconsistent.  Beat LSU, struggle with Georgia State, and smoke MSU.  Corey Clement has run the ball well, but the strength is certainly the defense.  Michigan has (for the most part) easily dispatched their opponents with ok defense and pretty good offense.  Scoring on the Badgers will be tough, but I think there's enough firepower (Butt-power?) to get those points on the board--Michigan's offense is more dynamic than LSU and MSU.  In addition, UM's defense will load up to stop Clement and make the freshman QB Hornybrook beat them.  Hornybrook bails in a rowdy road environment and the Blue keeps it going.  UW: 17 -- UM: 28
Hoying: Is Wisconsin riding the disrespekt train now? Charging into East Lansing and utterly stifling the Tyler O'Connor and the Spartan attack should set off a few Maize and Blue alarm bells. It's not like Wilson Speight has had to overcome a great deal of adversity to date from the likes of Colorado and Penn State. However, even if the Badgers are able to ground the UM pass game, Michigan is just too sound in every phase of the game to be too worried. Somehow, Wisconsin, for the second year in a row, can't run the ball. And, suddenly, the passing attack doesn't look that great either. Teams have relied on fantastic defense to overcome the Wolverines in the past (God bless you, Jim Tressel), but I don't see RichRod or old busted Lloyd Carr prowling the sidelines in Ann Arbor. These Wolverines will require a bit more creativity. UW: 20--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I really, really want to pick Wisconsin in this one. I really do. I'm just not sold on them. Yes, they beat and offensively inept LSU team and beat up a Michigan State team coming off A) and emotional win and B) an overrated Spartan team that beat a massively overrated Notre Dame team. The Wolverines aren't battle tested at all. I mean they have played a Bayloresque cupcake schedule this year. These teams are mirror images of each other and are going to try an stuff it down the other's throat for 60 minutes. Michigan will give up some big plays but should hold on at home. UW: 17--UM:20
Seeberg:  Well, Wisconsin certainly shut a lot of skeptics up (*cough ME cough*) last week by crushing Michigan State, but now the other half of that ugly state up north comes calling.  UM's run D is shaky at best and a Corey Clement-led offensive game plan might be the ticket for the Badgers to keep this season trucking along.  Meanwhile, it's likely that UM will put approximately 15 people in the box to not allow that to happen.  Oh, and the Wolverines' offense isn't the utter abomination that Sparty's is.  This game will be a helluva lot closer than I thought it was destined to be at this time last week, but, sadly, the home team will do enough to stay on track for another #1 vs. #2 OSU-UM showdown.  UW: 24--UM: 31

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes
Draper: The Buckeyes might be a little rusty after the huge win followed by a week of rest, but this should be a dominant performance.  Chris Ash has his work cut out for him at Rutgers but he's getting the process started.  Losing two starters is not a good prelude to facing the Buckeyes. For OSU, they need to win and get out without any serious injuries.  I expect this to be a stat padding game for JT.  Noah Brown, Mike Weber, and Curtis Samuel will also put up sick numbers.  Can the defense continue the eyepopping stat of scoring more TDs than they give up? (4 vs. 2).  Rutgers? More like Buttgers? #amirite? OSU: 63 -- Rut: 9
Hoying: Beating Oklahoma is nice, but now conference play ushers in the games that OSU fans really froth at the mouth over. Ohio State-Rutgers is one of the country's most cherished series, dating back to 2014, with the Buckeyes winning by an average of almost 40 points per matchup. It hasn't quite reached the level of rivalry that Michigan-Rutgers has, but when programs like those both date back to the 1880's, you'd expect newbies like Ohio State to have some catching up to do. Anyway, two weeks ago I presciently foresaw that Ohio State's fortunes this season would have a great deal to do with the performance of Noah Brown. Then I said some other stuff that nobody remembers or cares about. Kind of like this game. OSU: 56--RSUNJ: 10
Schweinfurth: Coming off that win, and a bye week, Ohio State gets Rutgers? Ugh, what a let down. Seriously, this is something to watch out for. I know Urban has had two weeks for this game, at it will be a blow out in the end, but I fully expect a sluggish start. Really the only thing to watch for in this one is JT and the receivers getting more passing reps, Weber and Samuel going for 100 rushing each, and, most importantly, another pick 6! The D keeps out scoring the opponents and it is glorious. OSU: 55--Rut: 10
Seeberg:  What an oddly sordid affair.  OSU's former D-coordinator leads Rutgers against current D-coordinator and former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano.  Chris Ash's intimate knowledge of the Buckeyes is probably good for a score in this game.  Unfortunately the Knights (not using that color in their name, WE are scarlet darnit!) need about 6 more scores after that to make this one a game.  Bucks big.  OSU: 52--Rut: 10

Upset Special
Draper: GT over Miami
Hoying: Indiana over Michigan State
Schweinfurth: North Carolina over Florida State
Seeberg:  Texas over Oklahoma State

No comments: