Week 6 - Midway Already

Nebraska vs. Missouri

Gomer: A rare Thursday night game featuring the Big 12 Conference. It also works out that this is the opening of the conference slate for both the Huskers and Tigers. Last year the Tigers absolutely destroyed the Huskers in Lincoln by a score of 52-17 and was the most that Missouri had scored against Nebraska since 1943! Mizzou has been a team to come up and surprise some good competition so far this season and has really flown under the radar. Nebraska had very high expectations (you are in Bo Pelini Land after all) and faltered in the final seconds in Blacksburg... losing on a last second decision can destroy a team's confidence. With the Huskers weak schedule so far and Missouri's surprising start, I look for the Tigers to win this one and set up a HUGE two weeks when they travel to Oklahoma State and host the Longhorns. NU: 17--MU: 22

Chief: A very interesting game that no one cares about. Mizzou is a surprising 4-0 after losing a bunch of talent last year. The Huskers are a 4th down pass in Blacksburg from being 4-0. Blaine Gabbert has been sensational for the Tigers but Nebraska is a solid defensive team (putting other teams deep into Bo Pelini land). Missouri took it to Nebraska last year in Lincoln, but I think this is where the buck stops for the Tigers. I don't know a lot about these teams, but I think the Huskers steal this one in Columbia. Neb: 25--Mizzou: 21

Michigan vs. Iowa

Gomer: Michigan reminded us all last week how far they've come... or not. They struggled on offense until late when Tate Forcier was forced to pass and they were able to tie it up against rival MSU, but lost in OT. Iowa has had a very strong start, most notably the much bigger than expected win at Penn State. This is a night game at Kinnick and the place should be rockin'. While the Hawks have lost three straight conference home openers, that trend reverses on Saturday. Don't be surprised if Michigan is in this til the very end. UM: 23--UI: 34

Chief: Now that Penn State lost, the obvious favorite in the Big 10 is Iowa (who needs to worry about the 4 time defending champ...). Everyone has jumped on the Hawkeye bandwagon and leapt off the Wolverines after the OT loss last week. Iowa is the standard team to play down to the competition (as seen last week). Everyone slobbers over their defense, but PSU's offense isn't that great. UM does have a good offense and will score. The way to beat the Wolverines is to slow them down, but still score on their awful defense. I don't think Iowa can score enough points. Time for another upset so people can leap back on the Michigan bandwagon. UM: 27--UI: 20

Florida vs. LSU

Gomer: Will He play? Yes. How effective will He be? That is the million dollar question. Frankly, I don't know the true extent of Tebow's concussion, only the doctors, family, and coaching staff, do and that is a card that's being held tightly to the chest. If it is anywhere near dangerous to play him, not only would that be terribly inconsiderate of "Corch Orban Meyers" but greatly jeopardize Tebow's already limited potential in the NFL. I will stand by my statement that LSU is really not that good, but then again, they keep winning. The Mad-hatters will be looking to avenge last year's 30 point loss in the Swamp but they don't have the horses. Interesting fact: Florida has lost to an SEC West team every year since 1999. UF: 38--LSU: 24

Chief: Going into the season, I had the Tigers at home taking down the champs. Now that I've seen the Bayou Bengals, I realize that they aren't very good. They struggled to put up points against an overrated UGA defense and while their defense is ok, it's not going to be enough. Everyone is focused on Tim Tebow. I think it might actually hurt the Gators if he plays because he can't jump back on the horse in a hard hitting game. The doctor's should hold him out and I believe they will--Meyer is just playing mind games with "the Hat". The only hope for the Tigers is the crowd rattling Brantley...which they will for a few picks, but it won't be enough. I hate them so much so I hope this pick is wrong. UF: 34--LSU: 24

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Gomer: Believe it or not, the Bucks MUST beat the Badgers. The Badgers run a rough little gauntlet of @ OSU followed up with a home date with the Hawkeyes, and while Wisconsin has made it to 5-0 by the skin of its teeth, the Bucks still need a win here to clinch an all important tie breaker over a team that could finish with just one loss. Much like the Buckeyes, the Badgers are a very balanced team on offense putting up just over 1000 yards on the ground and through the air so far this season. The balance has led the Badgers to a 11th ranked offense overall (Buckeyes ranked 54th). The balance shifts when you look at the defenses, the Buckeyes come in ranked 9th overall and the Badgers are somewhere out of the top 50 (website I usually use is down). Overall I expect a tight game where both coaches want to run the ball a lot. It will come down to which team makes the big turnover happen first. The Badgers could very well win this one, but the Buckeyes are too talented at all positions to let that happen. UW: 20--OSU: 31

Chief: No one mentions it, but the Bucks keep rolling. Yes the opponents have been bad, but IU put up 33 against UM on the road and was held to 14--(7 in the first 59:57) by the Bullets. The defense showed some chinks last week, but I think they'll shore it up in the Shoe. I like Pryor starting to run, but some passes flew over some wide open receivers--can't happen. The Badgers are surprisingly balanced this year but the Bucks will make them 1-dimensional (I don't think Tolzien can throw on us--so long as we cover the TE). John Clay is a great back, but the Bucks D-Line is special. Look for tOSU to stuff Wisconsin and put up plenty of points with Saine showing why he should start. UW: 13--OSU: 27

Auburn vs. Arkansas: Gomer: R-Kansas Chief: Arkansas
Alabama vs. Mississippi: Gomer: Bama Chief: Bama
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State: Gomer: GT Chief: FSU (have to go with the alma mater)
Purdue vs. Minnesota: Gomer: UM Chief: UM

Draper Index Rankings Post Week 5

This is the inaugural post of my top 25 computer rankings. For those who don't know, I created a computer rankings designed to mirror the BCS in 2001. Since it's inception, I have correctly picked the National Title contenders in 7 of the 8 years and usually all but maybe 1 BCS team are in the top 10--not counting conference champion squeakers. The rankings have some flaws for sure, but I like what I'm seeing now. Again, these rankings are meant to 'predict' the BCS, not necessarily pick the best team (although it's a pretty good metric). The rankings are based on win/loss, strength of team played when they played, and margin of victory (capped at 21). This is a barebones explanation so if you're interested in more explanation, let me know.

Top 25: Draper Index
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. USC
5. LSU
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. Ohio State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Iowa
12. Georgia
13. Missouri
14. TCU
15. BYU
16. Auburn
17. Utah
18. Wisconsin
19. Penn State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Oklahoma
22. USF
23. Boston College
24. Kansas
25. Miami (FL)