Week 14: Step by Step

Standings
1. Draper (45-17, 2-11 upset)
2. Seeberg (42-20, 5-8 upset)
3. Schweinfurth (42-20, 0-13 upset)
4. Hoying (40-22, 1-12 upset)

Step by step, day by day
A fresh start over, a different hand to play
The deeper we fall, the stronger we stay
And we'll be better the second time around

-"Second Time Around", theme song of Step by Step (set in Port Washington, Wisconsin)

Welcome to Championship Week! Nine conferences feature conference championship games this weekend (with the Sun Belt joining the fun next year), and seven, yes, SEVEN of them are rematches. One of the few teams to face a fresh opponent is Ohio State, returning to Indy for the first time since their 2014 tilt against...Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are itching to take the final step toward their third College Football Playoff berth in 4 years, while a septet of other teams just hope to make it better their second time around.

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Stanford Cardinal vs. USC Trojans
Draper: I was the only person that picked USC in the first matchup, but the (stupid) rematch gives me pause.  I finally got to watch a little Bryce Love last week and dude can ball.  I was extremely impressed....but...he had a few injury concerns pop up recently.  He gashed ND (like every team he's faced) unlike Ronald Jones of USC who was stuffed, but Notre Dame was a different team with hopes and dreams when they faced USC--Miami took that swagger from the Irish.  Is it actually time to call USC 'back'? No they won't make the playoff, but a conference championship for the first time since 2008? I think it's time to Fight On once again.  Stan: 20--USC: 30
Hoying: If I haven't made myself perfectly clear by now (I write most of the intros to these posts), I HATE rematches. ESPECIALLY pointless rematches (which most rematches are). And I'm generally not too keen on conference championship games either (guess why). So, this year, I am going to start every pick with a How Pointless? rating, where I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is. Ahem.
How Pointless? Super Pointless. USC walloped Stanford back in September, then proceeded to finish 8-1 in conference play while Stanford finished 7-2. Any reason to expect something different this time? No. Bryce Love is the same Bryce Love he was back then, while Sam Darnold has eased up on the turnovers he was coughing all over the field early this season. Yeah, that game was in LA and this is in San Francisco-ish but USC is still better, games against Notre Dame notwithstanding. Stan: 24--USC: 34
Schweinfurth: This really feels like it is USC's game to lose. Stanford is beat up. Bryce Love is not the same running back he was before the ankle injury (which is frustrating to watch because the dude is probably the best RB in FBS, suck it Barkley). The only question for me is, can Sam Darnold protect the football. Darnold is a very good quarteback, but makes stupid mistakes at bad times. I think he will throw it to the Cardinal a few times, but USC really is the better team here. Stan: 28--USC: 38
Seeberg:  Pretty easy to have picked this matchup for the PAC-12 title preseason, though maybe not where the teams would be sitting, with next to 0 chance of making the CFP.  The single best player on the field will still be Bryce Love, but his 160 yards weren't nearly enough to topple the Trojans last time, despite Sam Darnold's early-season penchant for forgetting to which team he should actually throw the ball (including 2 picks against the Cardinal).  If Stanford can keep this game close it will mean Bryce Love can be a factor for all four quarters instead of being forced to throw the ball.  Unfortunately, given the 623 yards USC racked up last time, that's unlikely to be the case.  Stan: 20--USC: 35

SATURDAY

AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
Draper: Haven't we seen this before? (Oh yeah, pretty much all these are rematches.)  Will the coaches and players still play for that mystical undefeated season when Scott Frost's moving van is more or less already packed for Lincoln? There has to be enough pride on the line to keep that 0 in the L column.  UCF is feeling the disrespect from the committee and a win over Memphis...won't change much, but it will help them always have the argument that they belonged.  Winner does get a New Year's Six berth so there's more than just pride on the line.  The Golden Knights finish the regular season unblemished.  Mem: 27--UCF: 40
Hoying: How Pointless? Very Pointless. UCF dismantled Memphis back in October and has been on a tear ever since. It's not like another stellar performance against an AAC team is suddenly going to vault the undefeated Knights into the playoff. The only possible storyline of interest here is UCF coach Scott Frost's focus. It's a coach's market in the carousel this offseason (although NFL coaches are apparently being turned away to keep spots open for Brady Hoke), and Frost is squarely in the crosshairs at his alma mater, Nebraska. Probably won't be enough to make a difference. Mem: 17--UCF: 34
Schweinfurth: UCF is rolling and got really lucky with that kick return last week. Memphis has been known to put up points this year. There is a HUGE cloud around this program with Scott Frost (he gone). It's not enough of a distraction right now for the Knights to blow a spectacular season, but it could be enough to keep it close for a while. Mem: 24--UCF: 35
Seeberg:  I'm not 100% sold on the Knights, but they should probably be ranked higher than #14.  They did beat a Power 5 team by four touchdowns after all (does Maryland count as a power 5 team?).  In any event, this is another rematch where one team is just too much better than the other for the familiarity to make a big enough difference.  It probably won't be a 27-point dismantling again, but I don't think the outcome will be in doubt for much of the fourth quarter.  Mem: 20--UCF: 38

Big 12: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Why oh why? THe Big 12 has the most pointless championship game because it will ALWAYS be a rematch.  Who cares if you lost the first one, the second one determines the "One True Champion"-- FAAARRRTT. I truly want TCU to take down the Sooners to ensure chaos upon chaos, but OU is a juggernaut.  Baker Mayfield is an absolute lock for the Heisman and he'll put his finishing move on the Horned Frogs.  He may be a jerk, but he's far and away the best player this year.  Hot take: even if OU loses this game, they have a really good argument to still make the playoffs.  TCU: 24--OU: 35
Hoying: How Pointless? PEAK Pointless. Every team plays every other team in the Big 12. These teams have IDENTICAL wins and losses in conference play except that they had to play each other, and Oklahoma won handily. Even if the Horned Frogs were to somehow win this game, is anyone going to be impressed with "Big 12 Champion" TCU? With a win, TCU would then have the exact same resume as Oklahoma, only without the marquee out-of-conference win. I made the mistake of picking TCU last time in this game. I don't see anyone slowing down the OU offense anytime soon, and there's no way the Horned Frog offense can keep up. TCU: 20--OU: 35
Schweinfurth: TCU has defensively torched most of the Big 12 this year...except for Oklahoma. The Sooners ran up and down the field on the Frogs in the first matchup. I do believe TCU will play better this time. However, the Sooners have soon-to-be-Heisman winner Baker Mayfield and that will be all the Sooners need to move on to the CFP. TCU: 35--OU: 42
Seeberg:  Honestly, this rematch, despite being #3 vs. #11, is as yawn-inducing as any in championship week.  I'd rather watch MACtion.  Rematches have a tendency to go in the opposite direction when teams are roughly equal in terms of talent...which is precisely why this one will NOT go the other way.  Sooners big.  TCU: 24--OU: 42

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers
Draper: This game and the Pac 12 title game are very intriguing.  Georgia was embarrassed by Auburn in Jordan Hare 3 weeks ago, and Malzahn had no qualms about running it up.  Auburn has been red hot (except against ULM in the first half), but is it time to come down from the extreme emotional high? The Auburn defensive line is fantastic and disruptive.  UGA was destroyed in the first meeting and will seek revenge.  The running game MUST be successful or the Auburn defense will feast.  I think the "more home-field like" confines of Atlanta will make a difference (don't forget, the two season changing wins came in a ballistic Jordan-Hare).  The injury to Kerryon Johnson is very concerning for the Tigers as well.  If he isn't 100%, I think the Dawgs get their revenge and take their spot in the playoff.  Honestly, there's not a great reason to pick UGA with how amazing Auburn's been lately, but I'm going for it.  UGA: 30--Aub: 28
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately to Highly Pointless. Both teams finished 7-1 in conference, with Auburn holding the convincing head-to-head victory and playing in the tougher division. And now, after steamrolling the #1 team in the country (again), Auburn has to travel to Atlanta to prove that they weren't kidding the first time they blasted the Dawgs. Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson may be a little banged up, but the steady hand of Jarett Stidham and suffocating Tiger defense should be enough to keep the dream season alive for another month. UGA: 24--Aub: 27
Schweinfurth: This one will be fun, and I don't say that often about these SEC games. Auburn absolutely wrecked Georgia in Athens. That in and of it's self is enough to say the Dawgs are fighting mad (H8 Fuels the Dawg). Auburn is riding that high that comes with knocking off two number one teams. Which is nice, until you realize Kirby Smart comes from the Nick Saban school of revenge. Auburn's defense will play well, but it's the Dawg defense that steps up. It will be nice to see a non-Alabama based school win the SEC for once. UGA: 21--Aub: 17
Seeberg:  See above.  Kirby Smart has the Bulldogs playing about as well as they're capable and they still got their doors blown off by Auburn the first time around.  IIIFFFFF Georgia can capitalize on an Auburn team that comes out flat after their huge Iron Bowl win, then they could pull this one out.  But as you can see, that's a pretty big "if".  I do expect Auburn to start slow, but not slowly enough for the Bulldogs to get the revenge W.  At least one team from Alabama will make the CFP, let's just not hope for two.  UGA: 21--Aub: 31

ACC: Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers
Draper: Of all the games this week, I have a feeling this one could get UG-LY.  It looked like the Canes were "back" with the turnover chain swagger....but did it? They were fantastic against Notre Dame, but more or less fell into wins over FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC, and to a lesser extent UVA.  The team simply thrives off turnovers (credit to Manny Diaz for bringing the chain to daU.  Clemson, when healthy, is one of, if not the most complete team in the country.  They pooped themselves against Cuse, but they have rocked on the big stage.  I don't expect anything different here.  The Canes have lost their top receiver on top of other injuries as well and Rozier is not consistent enough to overcome.  Tigers big.  UM: 10--Clem: 37
Hoying: How Pointless? Actually, not at all. Both teams enter with one (really bad) loss on an otherwise unblemished season. There were no last minute garbage heroics for Miami against Pitt last week, and now Da U has to pick itself up and face its toughest test to date, another Clemson juggernaut that's showed no signs of slowing down after last year's championship run. The Tigers should let their stifling defense choke the life out of a mediocre Hurricane O, avoid taking chances, and keep the turnover chain on the sideline. Miami is...not quite back. UM: 17--Clem: 34
Schweinfurth: Miami has been living off of turnovers all year. Which is good, until you don't get them and have to drive the full length of the field. Oh, that's what happened last week. And the Hurricanes lost, to Pitt. Clemson is the far superior team here. Mark Richt truely is this generation's John Cooper (Sorry Coop, but it's true)...he just can't win the big one. This one can, and most likely will get ugly. UM:10--Clem: 38
Seeberg:  So the U finally caved.  This is a CLASSIC Mark Richt team- playing up to the level of competition (see ND, Va Tech) but also down (see just about everyone else- remember, Toledo was beating them at the half).  I expect Clemson to bring out the best in the Hurricanes, but their mediocre QB play is just too much to overcome.  Tigers pull away late.  UM: 13--Clem: 31

B1G: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Draper: How easy could this be?  The Buckeyes enter the game after defeating their bitter rival after their all-Big -Ten QB was lost due to injury to face a solid Wisconsin team with a stellar running game.  We've seen this play out before! Of course, the Badgers enter this contest with an unblemished record while the Bucks have 2 marks against them.  What that tells me is, as we all know, the Buckeyes are very inconsistent.  What people don't seem to understand is that 'inconsistent' doesn't mean 'bad'.  Which Buckeye team will show up? Will it be the team that blew the doors off the Spartans or the one that looked like second-teamers in Iowa City? The team that couldn't defend home turf vs. the Sooners or the one that fought through adversity, injuries, and an early deficit during the vaunted Wolverine defense (yes, they're really good)?  I don't know, but I have to believe that Urban will know how to get the team prepared and good to go.  The more I think about it, deserved or undeserved, the Buckeyes will make the playoff with a win over the Badgers and B1G title.  Can JT fight through it all (pain, haters, Bucky) to take everything from Wisconsin? It is excruciatingly important the Buckeye's establish a running game (could be with Barrett) and I'd love to see some short crossing routes keep the linebackers on their toes.  Defensively, the Bucks need to slow the Badager rushing attack and contain Fumigalli (easier said than done for these linebackers).  If the defensive line can turn up the heat early (they took a half before they broke through the Wolverine O-line), the Bucks should take care of business.  As for a pick? We've seen this before! It's a clear as day.  Go Bucks!! OSU: 59 -- Wisc: 0
Hoying: How Pointless? Low-to-somewhat. Wisconsin is undefeated, while Ohio State is decidedly not. One could argue that the Badgers played in the weaker division, but it was a common opponent, the Hawkeyes from the B1G West, that ran OSU out of the building. At least there's no rematch here, although the Buckeyes and Badgers did meet on this very field only 3 years ago. Wisconsin is no stranger to Indianapolis, making their 5th appearance in the 7-year history of the championship. But they haven't won it all since way back in 2012, when they snuck in behind ineligible Ohio State and Penn State in the Leaders division and embarrassed Nebraska. 59-0 is practically a lifetime ago, but don't expect these Badgers to forget the near-flawless first half they frittered away against the Buckeyes in Madison last season. How do these teams stack up this year? Well, as mentioned above, the Badgers are still undefeated after 12 games, and keep riding the disrespekt train beyond Sparty's wildest dreams. Yeah, their schedule is a little soft, but it's not like they've been falling backwards into wins like Miami has. That Iowa team that made Ohio State look like Rutgers? Wisconsin held them to 66 yards. That Michigan team that jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week? Wisconsin held them to 10 points for the whole game, and that was with a competent quarterback for a half. On the other side of the ball, the Badgers only have the only running back in the B1G outperforming Dobbins this year, Jonathan Taylor (Thomas?), who also happens to be a freshman. No one's going to mistake Alex Hornibrook for JT Barrett anytime soon, but if the Silver Slugs at LB and safety don't lock on to TE Troy Fumagalli early and often, it won't matter. There's too much uncertainty here. The Buckeyes are coming off an emotional win that re-revealed some lingering problems on defense, their star QB is a solid blow to the knee away from spending another postseason on the sidelines, and Wisconsin has just the talent and size on the O-line to negate the Buckeyes' greatest strength, their punishing pass rush. If the Buckeyes can outduel the Badgers on the ground and get big games out of Dobbins and Weber, they can return to Columbus as B1G champions, but Wisconsin is too consistent and too legitimately good. Buckeyes lose a heartbreaker. OSU: 21--UW: 24
Schweinfurth: I want to believe in this team. I want to believe that the Buckeyes are legitimately pissed off that one of their coaches was dragged through the mud. I want to believe the linebackers can cover the tight end. I want to believe that JT Barrett's knee is okay after the scope. I can keep going but it would take all day to list all of the things stacked against the Buckeyes. Here's the deal, the Buckeyes need to get the linebackers help in the secondary on Fumagalli. Watch the line of scrimmage in this one. I think the defensive front will be able to wear down the fat guys of Wisconsin. If the Bullets get at push, watch out. I don't think Taylor will go for over 100 yards. I believe Jazz Peavy, who torched the Bucks last year is out for this game. That will help. This team seams to play its best with their backs against the wall. I think the Badgers win if this game were in Madison. It's not and I think the Bucks are pissed off about Schiano. JT will play, but how much? Haskins is competent and how poetic would if be for another OSU backup to beat Wisconsin in the B1G? GO BUCKS! BEAT THE BADGERS! GET THAT RING! OSU: 30--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Okay, we all know the Buckeyes need to win this game- hopefully in style- and have some other things happen ahead of them in the rankings to perhaps squeeze into the playoffs.  Let's get down to the basics.  Wisconsin is good, very good.  Like TTUN version 3.0 with a marginal QB (though markedly better than anything the maize and blue can trot out), a MUCH better offensive line, a comparably stout defense, and a stud RB.  Granted, their schedule has been essentially paper mache, but they did hold the Hawkeye offense completely scoreless, you know, the same team that hung 48 offensive points on the Silver Not-Nearly-As-Quick-As-Bullets.  It comes down to two things.  When the Bucks have the ball, it needs to go to Dobbins and Weber, early and often.  LOTS of crosses/slants/intermediate pass routes will open up in play action if J.T. gets the ball out of his hands in the run game early.  On defense, the Bucks HAVE to cover TEs and RBs out of the backfield.  Hell, bring in a safety to cover Fumagalli I don't care, just do NOT let a TE beat us.  I believe the Badgers will impose their will to an extent, especially early, but the depth of the DL for the Buckeyes will start to wear their O-line down in much the same way their O-line is accustomed to wearing out opposing defenses.  Avoid the early letdown, take care of the football, and the Bucks superior depth and speed will eventually win the day.  Oh, and I'm still toying with the idea of going to this game Saturday night, anybody wanna go?  OSU: 31--UW: 21

Upset Special
Draper: Troy over Arkansas State
Hoying: Idaho over Georgia State
Schweinfurth: North Texas over FAU
Seeberg:  Coastal Carolina over Georgia Southern

Bonus:
MAC: Akron Zips vs. Toledo Rockets
How Pointless? Exceedingly pointless. The Rockets blew the doors off the Zips back in October, and now Akron is sitting at 6-2 in conference and 7-5 overall. Woof.
C-USA: North Texas Mean Green @ Florida Atlantic Owls
How Pointless? Quite Pointless. The Mean Green have one conference loss, a 69-31 waxing at the hands of...Florida Atlantic, who hasn't lost a C-USA game yet. And now North Texas goes back to Boca Raton to do it again.
Mountain West: Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos
How Pointless? Moderately Pointless. Fresno State lost to a UNLV team that Boise State didn't play, but these teams LITERALLY PLAYED LAST WEEK, with Fresno State earning a comfortable win.