Playoff Scenarios: Order vs. Chaos

Say what you want about the College Football playoffs, but it creates quite the whirlwind of thrilling controversy every year. And this season may be the worst yet. With only one more week of football until the field is selected, there are still about 8 or so teams with a realistic shot at a semifinal berth, with a couple more dreamers clinging to delusional hope. Maybe you would like everything nicely and neatly wrapped up by the time you go to bed on Saturday, or maybe you want to imagine the Committee staying up all night arguing and sweating it out until noon on Sunday. Here's your Let's Go Bucks! guide to Order vs. Chaos.

Order scenario:

Oklahoma beats TCU
Georgia beats Auburn
Clemson beats Miami
Wisconsin beats Ohio State

If the idea of conflict frightens you or you're just perfectly content with not learning anything about how the Committee narrows the playoff field to four teams, then this is the scenario for you. Wisconsin gets in as the lone unbeaten Power 5 team, and Oklahoma, Georgia, and Clemson join them as the only 1-loss Power 5 champions. 11-1 Alabama whimpers for a few minutes before fading away.

Chaos scenario:

TCU blows out Oklahoma
Auburn squeaks by Georgia
Miami grazes Clemson
Ohio State beats Wisconsin competently
(Bonus) USC annihilates Stanford

Oh boy. Now we have some problems.

1-loss teams:

• Miami (11-1, ACC champion)
• Wisconsin (12-1, B1G East champion)
• Alabama (11-1, SEC West co-champion)

2-loss teams:

• Auburn (11-2, SEC champion)
• Ohio State (11-2, B1G champion)
• TCU (11-2, Big 12 champion)
• USC (11-2, Pac-12 champion)
• Clemson (11-2, ACC Atlantic champion)
• Georgia (11-2, SEC East champion)
• Oklahoma (11-2, Big 12...something?)
• Washington (10-2, Pac-12 North co-champion)

Miami's pretty clearly in as the only 1-loss Power 5 champion. That leaves 3 spots for 10 teams. And you can't put any of them in because...

• Wisconsin played a weak schedule, beating exactly one ranked team (#20 or so Northwestern), and didn't win their conference. So you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, Auburn, or TCU (conference champions with tougher schedules), or Clemson, Oklahoma, or Georgia (division champions with tougher schedules)
• Alabama also played a weak schedule, beating exactly two ranked teams (#15-20 or so LSU and Mississippi State). So you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, Auburn, or TCU (conference champions with tougher schedules), or Oklahoma (??? champion with better wins)
• Auburn lost to Clemson, who has the same record. So you can't put them ahead of Clemson (who has their own problems, see below).
• Ohio State got blown out twice, once to Oklahoma and once at an unranked opponent. So you can't put them in ahead of Oklahoma, you can't put them in ahead of TCU (who beat Oklahoma), and it's tough to put them in ahead of Alabama, who lost once, on the road, to a top-tier opponent.
• TCU has two wins against ranked opponents (Oklahoma and #15 or so Oklahoma State), but they went 1-1 against Oklahoma, tainting their top win somewhat. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn or Ohio State (conference champions with tougher schedules). Or even Oklahoma, who has the same record, better wins, a win over TCU, the best regular season Big 12 record, and only doesn't have the Big 12 championship because of a contrived extra game.
• USC got destroyed by Notre Dame and their only win of note is Stanford (twice). Add in that the Pac-12 is the weakest Power 5 conference this season. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn, Ohio State, or TCU (conference champions with better schedules).
• Clemson's loss to Syracuse is the worst of any playoff contender in 4 years. And they lack a conference title. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn, Ohio State, or TCU (conference champions with comparable schedules, except maybe TCU) or Oklahoma or Georgia (forgivable losses, comparable wins)
• Georgia lost twice to Auburn, a team Clemson beat. So you can't put them ahead of Auburn or Clemson, and you can't put them ahead of Ohio State, TCU, or USC (conference champions).
• Oklahoma lost to TCU and didn't win their conference. So you can't put them ahead of TCU, or ahead of Auburn or Ohio State (conference champions with comparable schedules).
• Washington's resume is bad and they should feel bad.

How would such a scenario end up? Only the Committee knows for sure (to the extent they consider hypotheticals), but my guess would be something like this:
#1 Miami (conference champ with best record)
#2 Auburn (conference champ with best wins and forgivable losses)
#3 Ohio State (conference champ with next best wins overcome losses and head-to-head)
#4 Oklahoma (1-1 vs. Big 12 champ TCU with better wins, and better wins than other contenders)
#5 TCU (similar resume to Oklahoma plus conference title minus Ohio State win)
#6 Alabama (dominant wins over mediocre teams)