Week 13: Best Served Cold

Standings:

1.) Hoying 39-17 (3-9 upset)
1.) Draper 39-17 (1-11 upset)

3.) Seeberg 38-18 (0-12 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 37-19 (5-7 upset)

The Playoff picture and various conference races continue to sharpen, but you'll forgive us for having an incurable case of tunnel vision this week. They ruined our streak. They torpedoed our season. They insulted our coach. And, inexplicably, they went out of their way to shit on our quarterback and offensive line. They'd better hope their ground-bound, dinosaur-era attack can cash the checks their gaping faceholes have been writing for 364 days.

FRIDAY

Tulane Green Wave @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: In the weekly spin the wheel AAC battle, the winner gets a berth in the title bout while the loser...could as well? When in doubt, go with the squad in the friendly confines and the one that's been there before.  The Bearcats are no strangers to the big stage and while the Green Wave have been a fun story, it won't be enough.  Fickell looks to return to the New Year's Six.  Tul: 17--UC: 27

Hoying: Oh, I thought I was so clever 3 weeks ago when I predicted that the Green Wave would finally end their decades-long losing streak against ranked opponents. Then UCF happened, and Tulane now finds itself fighting for a spot in the divisionless AAC title bout. Cincinnati, of course, is not the G5 standout they were a season ago, but they've gutted out tough wins and fallen short only against bowl-eligible Arkansas and the very UCF that tripped up Tulane. I really do believe (as I did previously) that Tulane is the better squad, but they just appear to have difficulty closing out big wins under the bright lights. The glitz of Nippert and Cool Hand Luke vanquish another foe and keep the Bearcats on pace for their third straight New Year's Six appearance. Tul: 20--Cin: 24
Schweinfurth: The fightin’ Ficks know how to win late in the year. About now each year the Bearcats just rise up and take over the AAC. I expect nothing less against Tulane. Cats keep rolling. Tul: 24--UC: 28

Seeberg:  As our colleague Señor Hoying points out, Tulane had an incredibly long winless streak against ranked opponents, a streak that lengthened by one against UCF a couple weeks ago.  Enter yet another ranked squad to their schedule, and now they're on the road to boot.  Not a great recipe for a new unit fighting for an NY6 bid against a squad who knows that struggle- and has won it- all too well.  Bearcats stay on track.  Tul: 23--Cin: 31

SATURDAY

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: Who doesn't love a good ole Civil War (no, I refuse to continue to change these rivalry titles).  BoNix has been a revelation this year for the Ducks, but don't count out the Beavs.  They nearly clipped SC and have been quietly solid all year.  Going to Corvallis doesn't inspire fear in anyone (except USC), but could the crowd be a factor? I just don't see it.  The Ducks have been solid since the UGA devouring and I expect it to continue.  Ore: 42--OreSt: 27
Hoying: So there is a thing as being a product of your schedule, Beavers, especially in the Pac-12 or the ACC. But last week, battle-tested UCLA fell to cupcake devourer USC, so this line of thinking isn't bulletproof. Yeah, Oregon State doesn't have a great win. Yeah, they got drilled by the Utah that Oregon just closed out. Where was I going with this? Oh yes, there isn't really a good reason to roll with OSU in this one. They don't have the offense to keep up with the Ducks, and I don't see the Beavs putting on another defensive clinic like the one that nearly derailed USC and Caleb's award hopes. Ore: 38--OreSt: 23
Schweinfurth: Bo Nix got his BoNix out a couple weeks ago and now everything is as it should be. The Ducks, once again, look like their post-Georgia selves. Oregon should keep rolling. The poor Beavers don’t stand a chance. Ore: 42--OreSt: 21

Seeberg: An in-state rivalry contest with a bit of juice this season.  The Beavers are a respectable squad.  They beat who they should and lose to who they should.  Unfortunately, their hated opponent falls into the latter category.  The Ducks' slip up against the Huskies two weeks ago was not enough to cost a conference title berth, provided they take care of business this weekend, and I believe they will.  Bo Nix, astonishingly, is still throwing the ball to the players in the correct jerseys (which, let's be honest, is quite a feat at Oregon given how often they change their unis).  The offense proves superior in the second half, Ducks pull away late.  Ore: 34--Orest: 21

ND Fighting Irish @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Put up or shut up, Irish.  This year has been a roller coaster after the close loss to the Buckeyes, unthinkable losses to the Herd and Cardinal, then victories over Dabo and Cuse.  The new look Irish have been focused on defense and ball control....which is just the recipe to frustrate the Trojans.  Caleb has been fantastic, engineering an explosive Trojan offense.  One thing that is said is that your defense travels.  Can the ND coach wake up the echoes and bring a huge victory to year one while knocking the Trojans (hypothetically) out of the Playoff?  I think there's a chance.  ND: 31--USC: 28

Hoying: OK, Irish, it's been fun, but just how seriously are we to take this late season resurrection? Second half  collapses against Navy aside, ND has been tearing through opponents as varied as Boston College to Syracuse to the dreaded Tigers of Death Valley East. Yes, the ACC is not the top P5 conference this year, but neither is the Pac-12; can the Irish terrorize the Pacific Coast as effectively as the Atlantic? With Drew Pyne still not being the answer the Irish need at QB, ND has been forced to rely on their staunch defense and strong running attack. The latter should pay dividends against a porous USC defense, but the question of the day is whether the Irish D can hold up against the offense that hasn't been slowed outside of one weird night in Corvallis. Personally, I think the Trojans will be a bit tougher rock to crack than the Tigers, and with a CFP berth and the opportunity to leapfrog Stroud in everyone's favorite award race, I don't think USC is going to slip up just yet. Check back next week in Vegas. ND: 38--USC: 41
Schweinfurth: USC has a great offense. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Riley’s Sooner defense traveled west. Not good. The Irish defense has looked great at points and has experience shutting down high powered offenses (see week 1). The Irish have also been on a punt block tear. Conventional thought says, go with the Trojans, but I can honestly see the Irish pulling off the upset. ND: 38--USC: 35

Seeberg: Certainly an interesting first go-around for ND's new head coach.  It's been fun watching the Irish single-handedly crush the ACC's ability to crack the playoff this year; however, a new challenge arrives out west in yet another playoff-seeking foe.  The Trojans still can't stop anybody, but if Caleb and Co. stay this hot he could have a legit shot at taking the hardware in a few weeks at the Downtown Athletic Club.  At present, this tussle is strength on strength.  Can ND score on USC's "defense"?  Can USC consistently drive the ball against a stout NDefense?  I'd guess probably on both, which leaves the result up in the air.  Friendly confines, and a fondness for close shootout-style contests, gives the Trojans the edge.  Until the Ducks (probably) are quacking next week, USC keeps the PAC-12 alive in the eyes of the CFP.  ND: 33--USC: 38

That School Up North @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Enter the field with you, your brothers, the ball, and the worst foe you can perceive.  It. is. Here.  As the Bcukeyes face TTUN as undefeated foes the question is the explosive offense vs. the blue-collar attitude.  Honestly, the Buckeyes have both though you'd never know according to reports.  The weakness of this Buckeye defense is the cornerback position, and I just don't think JJ has the guns to wreak havoc.  If Stroud and Co. can get out to an early lead, I don't see a path to victory for the blue.  The wolverines aren't built to catch up.  As Harbaugh wants to reduce possessions, Day will continue to pour it on.  It is CRUCIAL for the Buckeyes to get off the field on 3rd down and sustain drives (unless an explosive ends it early).  TTUN will try to take the air our to the ball, but the potential lack of their RBs could cause issues.  If the Bucks can prevent JJ's running for key 3rd downs, it could be a long day for the blue.  The Shoe, the crowd, the better squad....it's aligned.  Stroud takes control of the postseason award while a star is born in Dallan Hayden.  Harrison will get his, but expect a secondary receiver to create noise as well.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue!  TTUN: 24--OSU: 45
Hoying: This year's version of the rivalry presents a wider culture clash than we've seen since the days of Tressel vs. RichRod. The upshot is that this week's contest could go in any of a thousand different directions, but this writer finds inspiration in that apex of disappointing Buckeye losses: the 2007 BCS National Title against the Florida Gators. Go back and rewatch it if you're craving a swift kick to the nethers. It's horrible to suffer through but once you get past the initial shock you begin to notice a rather uncanny through-line: it's like watching peak Urban era Ohio State work over peak Tressel era Ohio State. The sport had already started to pass old Sweater Vest by in 2006; he still had enough in the tank to knock out TSUN every season-end but wins against crystal football caliber opponents would be forever out of reach. So it is now with our hated rivals up north. Their dinosaur-era run-first and play sound defense strategy was a great recipe for Harbaugh the QB but will not deliver results on elite levels for Harbaugh the coach against today's sophisticated offenses. Countless phases of last year's showdown had to break the Wolverines' way for Ohio State's 8-year streak to finally fold: the Buckeyes started slow on offense, they incurred countless pre-snap penalties, and least forgivably, the run defense refused to effect any kind of second half corrections after their predictable, low-ceiling plan was laid bare by Hassan and Blake. Blake's back (at what capacity we probably won't know until his first drive of the day), but Knowles will have the right pieces in the right places to slow their rushing attack just enough to allow CJ and friends to set the pace of the day. I don't think Blake will be stopped cold; in fact, I'd be willing to go so far as to predict the end of the streak of the school with the better average yards/carry leaving with a victory, which dates all the way back to 2001. But the Corn and Blue's plodding style requires perfect play all day; the Buckeyes only need a slight opening to blitz a quick 21 on the board and seize control. Just ask Penn State. You think Stroud and the slobs have forgotten what that assclown Howard said last awards season? Coleridge Bernard's little blue bird said it best: this is how villains are...set loose on their dreaded foes. The weather is of no consequence (unless it's raining sideways). When the little rubber pellets clear on Saturday, the Buckeyes will be rounding third and heading for Indy. TSUN: 23--OSU: 34
Schweinfurth: Ryan Day is pissed off. All of his players are pissed off. Heck, all of Ohio is pissed off after Harbooger and his idiots started running their traps last year. Let’s revisit what happened when Day and his boys were last this pissed off. Yea, they throttled Dabo the Clown. The Knowles factor here is huge as well. We was brought in to fix the defense in contests like this. He has even stated that his defense is designed to stop offenses like what the Wolverinies are going to run out. TTUN’s window for victory is tiny. Everything has to go right, and it did last year. This year? Weather is good, we are in the ‘Shoe, and the Bucks are pissed. Day will hang a hundred if he can. TTUN: 17--OSU: 52

Seeberg: It's FINALLY here!  The wait has been excruciating for anyone and everyone involved with the Ohio State football brotherhood.  The parallel-yet-divergent paths these squads have been on this season is highly intriguing.  TSUN returns a not-quite-as-good D as their elite unit last year, but an ostensibly better offense.  The silver bullets have returned on the Buckeye D, but without JSN and at least one star tailback, one can easily argue OSU's offense isn't quite as potent as it was heading into this one last year.  A couple stats to keep at the forefront:  Ryan Day is 31-1 against the conference, but just 1-1 against TSUN as they ducked us and cited COVID as the (weak) reason in 2020.  Start 1-2 against our hated rival and as insane as it sounds, the "Cooper" whispers could begin.  As anyone reading this will recall, Urban went 7-0 in the rivalry. Tough to beat for sure, and Day, perhaps, is feeling that just a touch.  Another reassuring stat, however, is as follows:  This is the 12th instance of this contest occurring with both squads ranked in the top 5.  The visitors are just 1-9-1 in those instances.  Also, TSUN hasn't won in the 'Shoe this CENTURY (funny to say it that way, but it is accurate).  Back to Saturday.  In this writer's borderline professional opinion, it will boil down to two things.  Can JJ push the ball down field enough to force the Buckeye D to respect it and not key heavily on the run (especially if Blake is near 100%).  On our side of the ball, can the Buckeyes run the ball when everybody KNOWS it is going to be run (short-yardage, winding the clock, etc.).  I don't have a ton of faith in either of those happening with consistency, but after witnessing the TSUN signal caller whiff on longer throws by five yards over and over again, I have to conclude the Buckeyes will be better off here.  Get CJ short throws NOT OUT WIDE PAST THE DIGITS but crosses and slants early, start a FULLY HEALTHY running back, even Hayden has acquitted well. I trust he'll value the ball and get you positive yards, keep JJ bottled in the pocket as often as possible, and set the world right with a TSUN loss.  TSUN: 20--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Vandy over Tennessee
Hoying: Florida over Florida State
Schweinfurth: South Carolina over Dabo 
Seeberg: Kansas over Kansas State