10 Reasons Why Oregon Beats Ohio State

1. Mariota Party

Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is the nation's leading offensive weapon by a wide margin. He leads all quarterbacks in QBR, yards/attempt, TD/INT ratio, and total TDs. He's 3rd in total passing yards, 2nd in passing TDs, and 5th in completion percentage. Mariota has been stellar ever since starting his freshman year, racking up 103 TDs and only 13 INTs over 3 seasons while compiling a 36-4 record. Oh, and he just won the Heisman trophy by the second-largest margin in the history of the award. (I wonder who had the largest margin...) If Mariota brings his "A" game to Dallas, it's tough to see how Ohio State can possibly counter such a difference maker. Cardale Jones has none of Mariota's experience (2-0 record as starter), rating (159.0 vs. Mariota's 184.3), or TD/INT ratio (6:1 vs. Mariota's 40:3).

2. Buckeye Turnover Drive

The Ducks sport the FBS's most favorable turnover margin, +20 over 14 games. While Ohio State is no slouch in this department (+10 over the same 14 games), it's troubling to imagine what Oregon could do with an extra turnover in this game, particularly since neither defense is expected to have much hope of forcing the other offense to punt. One stop, one score, may make all the difference. Thankfully, the Scarlet and Gray have matched the Green and Gold's ball-hawking efforts in their 2 postseason efforts; both squads have grabbed 7 TOs and lost 2 since the start of December.

3. Old, Unbusted Hotness

Ohio State's starting 22 features 11 freshman and sophomores, while Oregon only puts 7 underclassmen on their first team. We've already discussed Oregon's substantial experience advantage at QB, but equally worrisome is Ohio State's young O-line, which returned only one starter from last year. Oregon's offensive line, in contrast, returned 3 starters from 2013. Both teams have had phenomenal success and are playing their best football of the season in 2015, but at what point does OSU's lack of experience become a liability? The Crimson Tide sacked Cardale 3 times in the Sugar Bowl, while Mariota spent New Year's untouched by the FSU front.

4. Ain't No Stopping Us Now

Nobody has scored more points this season than the Oregon Ducks: 47.2 PPG. (The Baylor Bears scored one PPG more than Oregon, but played one fewer game). And no team has held the Ducks below 42 points since their loss to Arizona on October 2nd. The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense, either, averaging 45 PPG, but they've had their sputters down the stretch, scoring only 31 against Penn State (needing two short fields in OT to do so) and against Minnesota (albeit in a blizzard). The Seminoles had a month to rest their injured star linebackers and analyze the Quack Attack, and what happened? They got blasted for 59 points, Oregon's highest total since their season-opening win over South Dakota. The Silver Bullets are a bit tougher than the Noles, but nowhere near the same league as the Cardinal (16.4 PPG allowed), on whom the Ducks unloaded for 45 points. The Buckeyes don't often give up 40+ points and win, although it can be done (2013 vs. Michigan, 2012 @ Indiana). Can they beat an opponent they can't stop?

5. A Real, Live Quarterback

But then again, it's not like the Bucks are playing terrible offenses like Penn State and Michigan every week. Ohio State has faced the nation's #7 (Michigan State), #16 (Alabama), #29 (Wisconsin), and #31 (Cincinnati), holding them to an average of 20 PPG, just over half of these teams' combined scoring average. What separates the Ducks from these teams? If you read #1 above, you probably know the answer: an elite-level QB. Gunner Kiel and Connor Cook are nowhere near Mariota's talent level, but each was able to throw for over 350 yards against the Buckeye back seven. The Silver Bullets have improved a bit since from November on, culminating in a great Sugar Bowl performance that saw Blake Sims held to under 250 yards and forced 3 picks, but Mariota is no improvised first-year starter, and he's certainly not the hot flaming mess that is Joel Stave, or Zander Diamont. Unless the secondary plays at another level, Buckeye Nation is going to have flashbacks of 2013 all night long.

6. The Red Zone is for Loading and Unloading Only. There Is No Stopping in the Red Zone.

In Buckeye Nation's darkest hour, when Ohio State trailed Alabama 21-6, where lay the blame? Two turnovers in OSU territory certainly didn't help, but Alabama was finishing their drives, while Ohio State's efforts were falling just short. Across the country, the Ducks did some sputtering of their own, ending consecutive first-half possessions with a turnover on downs and a short field goal, but the Ducks never trailed because FSU's first 3 possessions ended in two field goals and a turnover on downs. If the Buckeyes can't figure out how to covert 1st-and-goal from the 2 (hint: give the ball to Zeke), or at least force a field goal or two, they'll find themselves in another hole very quickly, and 15 down against Oregon is probably insurmountable.

7. And Bad Mistakes...I've Made a Few

Much is being made of the Ducks' blowout win over Florida State in the Rose Bowl, but most people seem to be forgetting that the score was only 18-13 at half, after the Noles had already racked up almost 300 yards of offense, and FSU was within 4 until halfway through the third quarter. How did Oregon maintain the lead, and how did they eventually blow the game wide open? Capitalizing on mistakes. 2 turnovers on downs in the first half kept the Ducks in control, and 5 second-half turnovers keyed a 28-0 run to end the game. Meanwhile, Ohio State choked away a first half they were otherwise dominating through their red zone mismanagement and slippery ball handling, and a bizarre first down bomb at on their final drive gave Alabama a last gasp to tie the game on a Hail Mary. Woody Hayes sagely observed that the team that makes the least mistakes wins. If New Year's Day replays itself, that team will be the Oregon Ducks.

8. Pac Attack

It's easy to make the case for the Pac-12 as college football's top conference this season. The Pac-12 went 9-3 against the other Power 5 conferences and Notre Dame during the regular season, adding another 5 wins and a loss against power teams during the bowl season. Included in that stellar resume are seven wins over our beloved B1G, with a lone loss coming through lowly Washington State's season-opening loss to Rutgers. The Ducks have run roughshod over their conference foes, winning each of their last 8 conference games by double digits. Ohio State has had similar success, and while the B1G earned some redemption this bowl season, nobody's about to forget the disastrous September that nearly eliminated them from playoff contention. One potential Pac-trap: the entire conference managed to avoid any battles against the ALMIGHTY SEC, which you may recognize as the league against which the Buckeyes went 1-0 this year.

9. One Foot out the Door

Where is Tom Herman's head right now? After an amazing run at offensive coordinator which saw Ohio State's PPG jump from 30.7 during the 2009-11 seasons to 42.8 over the last 3 years, Herman has been hired away to take the head job with the Houston Cougars. After taking the job, Herman decided to stay on as OC for the Bucks during the playoffs, and the offense hasn't suffered yet, putting up a healthy 42 on one of the nation's top defenses. But students of history may remember a similar situation back in 2000/01. Mark Richt, architect of Florida State's offense, tops in the nation, accepted the head coaching job at Georgia prior to the national championship. The Noles proceeded to unconditionally surrender to a stifling Oklahoma defense, accumulating all of ZERO offensive points. Maybe the Sooner D was just that good, maybe the Noles were just off that day, or maybe Richt phoned in his bowl prep. Given what we saw in the Sugar Bowl, and what we know about Oregon's defense, it's unlikely that Herman's Buckeyes will suffer the same fate, but anything less than an "A" performance from the Buckeye attack probably won't get the job done.

10. 2 Fast 2 Furious

One of my least phrases in sports is "closer than (or not as close as) the score indicates." Nothing a team does matters other than the points they put up and give up. Better to say that "the outcome was never really in doubt," which applies to the last few minutes of each of Ohio State's wins since the Penn State 2OT thriller, with the exception of the Sugar Bowl. But looking at the scores, there haven't been too many blowouts: Michigan State by 12, Minnesota by 7, Indiana by 15, Michigan by 14, Alabama by 7. Each of these games (except Alabama) was comfortably in hand, yet the scores don't reflect this reality. Why not? Because the Silver Bullets, for whatever reason, don't like to close out games once they think they have a safe lead. In every game (except Wisconsin, obviously) since Penn State, the Buckeyes' opponent has scored the final TD, often in embarrassing fashion:

Michigan State: 10 play, 76-yard TD drive in 1:52 after Ohio State went up 49-31
Minnesota: Recovered a muffed punt at the OSU 14, scored 2 plays later, added a FG, all after Ohio State went up 31-14
Indiana: Tevin Coleman 52-yard TD run after Ohio State went up 42-20
Michigan: 9 play, 75-yard TD drive in 2:43 after Ohio State went up 42-21
Alabama: 6 play, 65 yard TD drive in 1:25 after Ohio State went up 42-28

Oregon's offense scores the second-most points in the country, with the nation's 115th-ranked average time of possession. They scored 7 offensive TDs against Florida State, and none took longer than 3 minutes. No lead is safe, and if the Buckeyes are going to hold on in the fourth quarter yet again, they can't blink.