Standings:
1.) Hoying 16-7 (2-4 upset)
1.) Draper 16-7 (1-5 upset)
2.) Seeberg 15-8 (1-5 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 14-9 (1-5 upset)
The #1 team is back in action after their bye week, but don't expect them to remain there much longer, even with a win over their bitter rivals. The eyes of the rest of the nation are upon Autzen Stadium for what may rival Georgia - Alabama for the regular season game of the year (unless Penn State has something to say about it).
Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: The Red River Shootout as an SEC game at 3:30?? What is the world coming to? Honestly, I'm a little surprised this game is still being billed as highly as the past. Yes, it's a big rivalry, but the talent is skewed heavily on one side of the ball. Texas gets Quinn Ewers back which matters even though Arch was playing well. OU looks pretty strong on defense, but I don't trust the offense to move the ball at all. The best hope for Sooner Nation is for a defensive score or a few big plays to keep UT honest. I don't think it will happen. Texas will get another boost for taking care of another ranked opponent that is more of a shell (see: Meatchicken, Univ. of). Hook them. UT: 27--OU: 13
Hoying: In this grueling 12-game audition process, only two teams have really looked the part of the implacable champion so far. You're intimately familiar with one, and the other is suiting up in burnt orange at the Texas State Fair this weekend. The Longhorns have been superb on both sides of the ball and have already clocked five solid and complete wins in this young season, the crown jewel being a thrashing of the defending national champions* on their home field. If only Ewers and Co. would have had the chance to do that last season. The Longhorns were one game away from a title bout last year, despite the one blemish on their record given to them by...Oklahoma. Texas had appeared to top the Sooners on a field goal with a minute to spare before a heartbreaking TD in the final seconds. But this year, the Sooners can't count on any last-gasp heroics from Dillon Gabriel (hmmmm...). In fact, they can't count on much working on the offensive side of the ball, sputtering to ugly wins over bad teams like Houston and Auburn, and having the other UT step on their necks for 60 minutes on their own home turf. The Red River Shootout is one of the few rivalries where you can really throw the records out the window, but a Texas choke would go down as one of the bigger upsets in the series. Horns big. UT: 34--OU: 13
Schweinfurth: I truly did consider picking Oklahoma here, because weird things happen in this game. But then I saw all of the WR injuries for OU. And I do mean ALL the WR injuries. Let's face it, Oklahoma was probably facing an uphill battle to begin with. Missing some offensive firepower makes this an impossible mountain to climb. UT: 33-OU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic SEC rivalry, Texas and Oklahoma. Honestly, it hurts my soul a bit to even type that. Such is the brave new world of college football in 2024. The pendulum in this rivalry may have swung the Longhorns' way for the foreseeable future. Crazy things happen in rivalry games, we all know this, but a team coming in already as an underdog and missing FIVE of their top SIX wideouts is insane. There's just no way the Sooners can put up enough points over four quarters to hang with this Texas squad. Longhorns comfortably. UT: 31--OU: 10
Hoying: In this grueling 12-game audition process, only two teams have really looked the part of the implacable champion so far. You're intimately familiar with one, and the other is suiting up in burnt orange at the Texas State Fair this weekend. The Longhorns have been superb on both sides of the ball and have already clocked five solid and complete wins in this young season, the crown jewel being a thrashing of the defending national champions* on their home field. If only Ewers and Co. would have had the chance to do that last season. The Longhorns were one game away from a title bout last year, despite the one blemish on their record given to them by...Oklahoma. Texas had appeared to top the Sooners on a field goal with a minute to spare before a heartbreaking TD in the final seconds. But this year, the Sooners can't count on any last-gasp heroics from Dillon Gabriel (hmmmm...). In fact, they can't count on much working on the offensive side of the ball, sputtering to ugly wins over bad teams like Houston and Auburn, and having the other UT step on their necks for 60 minutes on their own home turf. The Red River Shootout is one of the few rivalries where you can really throw the records out the window, but a Texas choke would go down as one of the bigger upsets in the series. Horns big. UT: 34--OU: 13
Schweinfurth: I truly did consider picking Oklahoma here, because weird things happen in this game. But then I saw all of the WR injuries for OU. And I do mean ALL the WR injuries. Let's face it, Oklahoma was probably facing an uphill battle to begin with. Missing some offensive firepower makes this an impossible mountain to climb. UT: 33-OU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic SEC rivalry, Texas and Oklahoma. Honestly, it hurts my soul a bit to even type that. Such is the brave new world of college football in 2024. The pendulum in this rivalry may have swung the Longhorns' way for the foreseeable future. Crazy things happen in rivalry games, we all know this, but a team coming in already as an underdog and missing FIVE of their top SIX wideouts is insane. There's just no way the Sooners can put up enough points over four quarters to hang with this Texas squad. Longhorns comfortably. UT: 31--OU: 10
Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Southern California Trojans
Draper: Honestly, I think this game will be a lot closer than most expect. The close loss to the Gophers on the road are having the world hop off the Trojan bandwagon, but Lincoln Riley is good for 1 or 2 stinkers a year. Miller Moss is really talented but he'll have his hands full with the Nittany Lion defense. The game will come down to Drew Allar. Is he who we thought he was or has he developed into something more? I don't think he's leapt into the elite category, but competence is on the docket. This one will be closer than the experts think. I'm really close to pulling the trigger, but Franklin usually wins all the games outside of the truly elite matchups (which he loses nearly all). The Lions squeak a victory in Los Angeles to stay perfect. PSU: 21--USC: 20
Hoying: Remember when we thought that maybe USC had fixed their defensive problems after all? Yeah, turns out not so much. Michigan didn't throw any wrinkles at the Trojans to eke out a win, USC just ran a bad scheme for an entire half and then showed off their lack of tackling prowess in do-or-die time. Of course, it doesn't speak much for the Trojan offense, either, when they go to Minnesota and put up 10 points fewer than the aforementioned Wolverines did. Penn State, meanwhile has been quietly excellent all season. They're not quite on Ohio State's level but I truly think they are the biggest stumbling block to an undefeated Buckeye regular season (spoilers for my pick below). Drew Allar is finally performing as promised, and the defense, while not quite as elite as last year, is still sufficient to slow down all but the most potent of attacks. The weird Big Ten travel bug (teams traveling at least two time zones are 1-8 in conference this year) will stop this one from being a laugher, but Penn State is too good and too balanced on offense for the Trojans to keep up. PSU: 31--USC: 24
Schweinfurth: Man, USC is bad against the run. And I do mean bad. Just look at what TUN did by just running power over, and over, and over, and...you get the point. Penn State can actually throw the ball, if they let Allar rip it. I'm really not sure it will matter. This defense was supposed to get sorted out for the Trojans, but it's still stinky poo. I like the Lions here, even if Franklin tries to pucker. PSU: 28--USC: 21
Seeberg: Hmmm, an interesting matchup here, particularly for James Franklin. On one hand, he generally beats everybody he's supposed to beat. However, he's made millions by playing up his connections to USC every time that job opens up. If he beats them down, the job won't be as glamorous. So much for increased paydays for never winning anything of consequence. The Lions have played nobody, but have looked proper in those games. USC's defense is actually improved, but is still highly porous against the run. If the Nittanys get out to a lead, they will be able to run the ball, shorten the game, and there isn't much the Trojans are likely to be able to do about it. It won't be super attractive, but Franklin keeps the undeserved hype train rolling in Happy Valley. PSU: 27--USC: 17
Hoying: Remember when we thought that maybe USC had fixed their defensive problems after all? Yeah, turns out not so much. Michigan didn't throw any wrinkles at the Trojans to eke out a win, USC just ran a bad scheme for an entire half and then showed off their lack of tackling prowess in do-or-die time. Of course, it doesn't speak much for the Trojan offense, either, when they go to Minnesota and put up 10 points fewer than the aforementioned Wolverines did. Penn State, meanwhile has been quietly excellent all season. They're not quite on Ohio State's level but I truly think they are the biggest stumbling block to an undefeated Buckeye regular season (spoilers for my pick below). Drew Allar is finally performing as promised, and the defense, while not quite as elite as last year, is still sufficient to slow down all but the most potent of attacks. The weird Big Ten travel bug (teams traveling at least two time zones are 1-8 in conference this year) will stop this one from being a laugher, but Penn State is too good and too balanced on offense for the Trojans to keep up. PSU: 31--USC: 24
Schweinfurth: Man, USC is bad against the run. And I do mean bad. Just look at what TUN did by just running power over, and over, and over, and...you get the point. Penn State can actually throw the ball, if they let Allar rip it. I'm really not sure it will matter. This defense was supposed to get sorted out for the Trojans, but it's still stinky poo. I like the Lions here, even if Franklin tries to pucker. PSU: 28--USC: 21
Seeberg: Hmmm, an interesting matchup here, particularly for James Franklin. On one hand, he generally beats everybody he's supposed to beat. However, he's made millions by playing up his connections to USC every time that job opens up. If he beats them down, the job won't be as glamorous. So much for increased paydays for never winning anything of consequence. The Lions have played nobody, but have looked proper in those games. USC's defense is actually improved, but is still highly porous against the run. If the Nittanys get out to a lead, they will be able to run the ball, shorten the game, and there isn't much the Trojans are likely to be able to do about it. It won't be super attractive, but Franklin keeps the undeserved hype train rolling in Happy Valley. PSU: 27--USC: 17
Mississippi Rebels @ Louisiana State Tigers
Draper: The fact that this is a ranked matchup surprised me...the fact that it is a top 13 matchup???? Floored. LSU has been quietly good since the opening week loss to USC, but further review of the schedule reveals....trash. A 3 point (comeback) win vs. South Carolina on the road is the only plus with hapless Nicholls State, UCLA, and South Alabama filling out the slate. Ole Miss crushed SoCar on the road, suffered the hiccup to a better-than-you-thought Kentucky and played some more garbage. Death Valley at night is no small mountain to climb, but Jaxson Dart and Kiffikins seems to have some mojo this year. UK won by churning it out on the ground. I'm not convinced LSU can do the same. Miss: 31--LSU:20
Hoying: I look at the rankings, I see LSU at #13, and I ask myself, well, how did they get here? Losing to USC looks more troubling than it did a month ago, and the best win is a 3-point victory over South Carolina on a late TD pass, a missed Gamecock last second field goal, and a questionable call negating a game-sealing Gamecock pick-six. Much like the Trojans above, LSU's defense picked up right where last year's ended, and now they don't have freshly minted NFL superstar Jayden Daniels to bail them out on offense, although Garrett Nussmeier has been no slouch in replacing him. He's no Jaxson Dart, though. Ole Miss is doing everything LSU does, only better. That includes fielding perhaps the finest defense of Lane Kiffin's career, which, while a low bar, could be enough to make the difference in this one. I hate riding with the Rebels in big games, but with games against Texas A&M and Alabama coming up for LSU in the next month, there's still plenty of time for them to be exposed as frauds. Miss: 35--LSU: 24
Schweinfurth: I still think Ole' Miss is overrated. With that said, LSU isn't great either. Buuuut. Jaxon Dart can still spin it and Kiffin knows how to use his offensve talent. Rebels win. Miss: 35--LSU: 13
Seeberg: Another top 15 matchup of second-tier, we-get-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-because-we're-in-the-SEC schools. I don't think either is capable of making much noise in the playoff, so why they're ranked so highly is beyond me. Regardless, LSU is down much more considerably than the Rebels this season, KY loss notwithstanding. I expect their offense to bounce back and put enough points on the board to quiet the raucous Death Valley environment. Miss: 27--LSU: 17
Schweinfurth: I still think Ole' Miss is overrated. With that said, LSU isn't great either. Buuuut. Jaxon Dart can still spin it and Kiffin knows how to use his offensve talent. Rebels win. Miss: 35--LSU: 13
Seeberg: Another top 15 matchup of second-tier, we-get-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-because-we're-in-the-SEC schools. I don't think either is capable of making much noise in the playoff, so why they're ranked so highly is beyond me. Regardless, LSU is down much more considerably than the Rebels this season, KY loss notwithstanding. I expect their offense to bounce back and put enough points on the board to quiet the raucous Death Valley environment. Miss: 27--LSU: 17
THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: Game 1 of the 3 game season hath arrived. Further review of the Buckeye schedule shows that there is a gauntlet to run from here out (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, IU, TTUN). This feels like a statement game for the Buckeyes. They've heard all along about how they 'haven't played anyone' and 'we'll find out soon if they're any good', but this is time for them to prove that this team is the elite of the elite. The main Oregon 'film' I saw was vs. Idaho (in which they squeaked out a win on the scoreboard even though they dominated the game) and vs. Boise State where they were LUCKY to eke out the win on the scoreboard with 2 special teams TDs. The biggest red flag was Ashton Jeanty tearing up the Ducks for 192 yards and 3 scores on the ground. While Jeanty is a special talent, the Buckeyes have 2 special talents at RB. OSU has been amazing at scoring TDs in the redzone. Expect more of the same here. Howard needs to manage the game, make a few key scrambles when needed, and limit turnovers and the rest of the Buckeye offense will cook. I expect a similar script from all games this year. Punch/counter-punch in the first half while the defense feels out the Dillon Gabriel attack, then deluge in the 3rd quarter. Let's not forget that Gabriel's numbers have been nice, but this Buckeye defense has NFL talent. Multiple explosive plays in the run game drive the Buckeyes to a huge win in Autzen Stadium and propel the Bucks to #1. OSU: 31--UO: 20
Hoying: I'm officially a believer. This Buckeye team is built to championship specifications, and they should be right in the title mix barring a rapid fire barrage to their own feet. Look no further than the Buckeyes' newfound success in the red zone. As John Madden would say, you have to score points to win football games, and points don't get left off the board anywhere on the field more often than in the red zone. Back in 2019, when the Buckeyes put together the most dominant regular season in history, they finished fourth in red zone TD % in the country, tied with a little program called L.S.U., and settling for three field goals against Clemson ultimately did them in by a single possession. In 2022, when the Bucks were a hooked field goal away from stealing a national championship from the current dynasty, they finished sixth, well ahead of the rest of the Playoff field. In 2020, 2021, and 2023? Not inside the top 40. And this season, the Bucks have scored a touchdown on every single red zone possession, except one (cue the Penn State Super Bowl graphic), and that lone FG possession was thanks to a boneheaded late hit personal foul. With all due respect to CJ Stroud, my all-time favorite Ohio State player on offense, this year's run-first, mobile QB scheme looks much more like the championship teams of Buckeye past. I'm reminded of JT Barrett getting back on the field in 2015 as our red zone specialist, and then taking back the starting job full time once it was clear how many points a true zone read rushing attack was worth. Oregon is currently at a middling 67% red zone TD percentage and a pretty dreadful 81% overall red zone scoring percentage. A few of these empty possessions have been specially delivered by Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel straight into a waiting defender's hands. It's not like Will Howard is immune from turnover-worthy plays either, but (1) Ohio State's defense will be much better at capitalizing on these mistakes than Oregon's will, and (2) Ohio State has the luxury of leaning hard on an elite running attack if the passing game starts to falter. Ashton Jeanty was able to find room to move the Duck D, and I don't think Quinshon and Tre are too many steps behind the all-universe Boise State RB. And they'll have the luxury of a much better offensive line parting the flock. The Bucks carry their momentum into their second bye week and take care of business against the Ducks. For now. OSU: 35--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: I finally started following Parker Fleming (not that Parker Fleming) on Twitter (it will always be Twitter) and there were some stats thrown out this week that made me think a bit. Chip Kelly loves to run RPOs. While the Bucks haven't shown too much of it this year, it's there and has been a Kelly staple. Oregon struggles against this type of play. Hmm. As long as Good Will shows up, the Bucks will be just fine on offense. There are also so many weapons in the Buckeye offense and we haven't even seen the full Buckeye playbook. Defensively, Ohio State has been stout against several types of offenses and really, they just don't let teams score in the red zone. We may see a lot of the spread out offense we saw vs. Marshall to create running room, but Oregon has struggled scoring in the red zone. This feels like a physical beat down by the Buckeyes. Oregon will hang for a bit, but Ohio State is too big and too talented. OSU: 35--UO: 17
Seeberg: I have not been shy about picking against our beloved Buckeyes over the years. An away matchup against a top 5 opponent would seem a likely occasion to pick against the scarlet and gray again. In all honesty, however, I just don't see it that way this time. This Buckeye team, save for slow starts, has been the team we thought it would be on both sides of the ball. The gradual lead-up to this game culminated with an excellent performance against Iowa. Save for two self-inflicted gaffes (Howard run call on 4th down was lousy, Howard's INT was the right read but well behind Egbuka), The game would likely have been out of hand even sooner. Iowa's defense is comparable to Oregon's, but the O-line held up to the tune of 0 sacks and 203 rushing yards at 5.1 per carry. Oregon is talented, but not as deep as the Bucks' D-line and they will be worn down over 60 minutes. This is likely the first game the starters will be needed for four quarters, so they should be fresh. Red zone efficiency will also be huge. OSU is literally at 100% (with all but 2 being TDs), while Gabriel has already thrown 3 picks in the red zone. Turnovers/settling for FGs won't cut it against the Buckeye team. Bring out the orange sauce, Bucks cook Ducks. OSU: 38--UO: 20
Hoying: I'm officially a believer. This Buckeye team is built to championship specifications, and they should be right in the title mix barring a rapid fire barrage to their own feet. Look no further than the Buckeyes' newfound success in the red zone. As John Madden would say, you have to score points to win football games, and points don't get left off the board anywhere on the field more often than in the red zone. Back in 2019, when the Buckeyes put together the most dominant regular season in history, they finished fourth in red zone TD % in the country, tied with a little program called L.S.U., and settling for three field goals against Clemson ultimately did them in by a single possession. In 2022, when the Bucks were a hooked field goal away from stealing a national championship from the current dynasty, they finished sixth, well ahead of the rest of the Playoff field. In 2020, 2021, and 2023? Not inside the top 40. And this season, the Bucks have scored a touchdown on every single red zone possession, except one (cue the Penn State Super Bowl graphic), and that lone FG possession was thanks to a boneheaded late hit personal foul. With all due respect to CJ Stroud, my all-time favorite Ohio State player on offense, this year's run-first, mobile QB scheme looks much more like the championship teams of Buckeye past. I'm reminded of JT Barrett getting back on the field in 2015 as our red zone specialist, and then taking back the starting job full time once it was clear how many points a true zone read rushing attack was worth. Oregon is currently at a middling 67% red zone TD percentage and a pretty dreadful 81% overall red zone scoring percentage. A few of these empty possessions have been specially delivered by Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel straight into a waiting defender's hands. It's not like Will Howard is immune from turnover-worthy plays either, but (1) Ohio State's defense will be much better at capitalizing on these mistakes than Oregon's will, and (2) Ohio State has the luxury of leaning hard on an elite running attack if the passing game starts to falter. Ashton Jeanty was able to find room to move the Duck D, and I don't think Quinshon and Tre are too many steps behind the all-universe Boise State RB. And they'll have the luxury of a much better offensive line parting the flock. The Bucks carry their momentum into their second bye week and take care of business against the Ducks. For now. OSU: 35--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: I finally started following Parker Fleming (not that Parker Fleming) on Twitter (it will always be Twitter) and there were some stats thrown out this week that made me think a bit. Chip Kelly loves to run RPOs. While the Bucks haven't shown too much of it this year, it's there and has been a Kelly staple. Oregon struggles against this type of play. Hmm. As long as Good Will shows up, the Bucks will be just fine on offense. There are also so many weapons in the Buckeye offense and we haven't even seen the full Buckeye playbook. Defensively, Ohio State has been stout against several types of offenses and really, they just don't let teams score in the red zone. We may see a lot of the spread out offense we saw vs. Marshall to create running room, but Oregon has struggled scoring in the red zone. This feels like a physical beat down by the Buckeyes. Oregon will hang for a bit, but Ohio State is too big and too talented. OSU: 35--UO: 17
Seeberg: I have not been shy about picking against our beloved Buckeyes over the years. An away matchup against a top 5 opponent would seem a likely occasion to pick against the scarlet and gray again. In all honesty, however, I just don't see it that way this time. This Buckeye team, save for slow starts, has been the team we thought it would be on both sides of the ball. The gradual lead-up to this game culminated with an excellent performance against Iowa. Save for two self-inflicted gaffes (Howard run call on 4th down was lousy, Howard's INT was the right read but well behind Egbuka), The game would likely have been out of hand even sooner. Iowa's defense is comparable to Oregon's, but the O-line held up to the tune of 0 sacks and 203 rushing yards at 5.1 per carry. Oregon is talented, but not as deep as the Bucks' D-line and they will be worn down over 60 minutes. This is likely the first game the starters will be needed for four quarters, so they should be fresh. Red zone efficiency will also be huge. OSU is literally at 100% (with all but 2 being TDs), while Gabriel has already thrown 3 picks in the red zone. Turnovers/settling for FGs won't cut it against the Buckeye team. Bring out the orange sauce, Bucks cook Ducks. OSU: 38--UO: 20
Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Iowa State
Hoying: Colorado over Kansas State
Schweinfurth: Cal over Pitt
Seeberg: Vandy over Kentucky
