Standings:
1.) Hoying 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Draper 11-5 (0-4 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-5 (0-4 upset)
In the era of the 12-team Playoff, individual games will start to mean less and less as it's easier to fall off the undefeated wagon and still stay on pace to compete for a title. But there are still marginal teams out there looking to avoid bubble-bursting losses, and, at the top, there are still games that can influence the narrative of the college football hierarchy for seasons to come.
Louisville Cardinals @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: This is an intriguing game after the Irish loss to the Huskies and general "who cares?" win against the Redhawks, but Louisville MIGHT be good? I don't know, but the sharps in Vegas have strong convictions on Notre Dame as the line has moved from ND -4.5 to ND -7! While I'm surprised, maybe Marcus got the yips out against NIU and it's time for business. I'm leaning on the wiseguys here, but the Cardinals have an uphill battle to sneak one in South Bend. UL: 16-ND: 28
Hoying: So Notre Dame may not be all they were cracked up to be after knocking off Texas A&M. Riley Leonard has not been the transfer panacea they had hoped for, which isn't that surprising considering they couldn't even ride Sam Hartman to a NY6 Bowl last year. On the other hand, Louisville has been just...ehhhh. After dispatching two FCS teams (oh wait, Jax State is C-USA now, aren't they?) ONE FCS team and Jax State, they struggled to put away Georgia Tech at home. I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams, but I don't think this is the game that knocks Notre Dame out for good this season. Look further ahead on the schedule to USC, or Navy (!), or Army (!!!). UL: 20--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Was the NIU game a let down game or is it reality? Is Louisville legit? Not really sure. Notre Dame has put up the better schedule to this point. I guess this game comes down to if the Domers can score enough points. Louisville is going to move the ball and put up points. The Irish have struggled moving the ball against better teams. I tend to lean on history here and Notre Dame just has trouble winning the big ones. UL: 28--ND: 24
Seeberg: You know how I know we're still too early in the college football season? I just asked myself "are either of these teams good?" And my definitive answer for BOTH squads was a shrug of the shoulders. ND destroyed a middling Purdue team after losing to the 4th best MAC team at home the week before. Louisville played a close game against Georgia Tech, the team that was briefly ranked on the heels of a great win against...oops, nevermind. Sorry, Chief. It's strength on strength when Louisville is on offense. Short fields will be critical for the Golden Domers to put up enough points to win this one, but I think they do put up just enough to do it. UL: 23--ND: 24
Hoying: So Notre Dame may not be all they were cracked up to be after knocking off Texas A&M. Riley Leonard has not been the transfer panacea they had hoped for, which isn't that surprising considering they couldn't even ride Sam Hartman to a NY6 Bowl last year. On the other hand, Louisville has been just...ehhhh. After dispatching two FCS teams (oh wait, Jax State is C-USA now, aren't they?) ONE FCS team and Jax State, they struggled to put away Georgia Tech at home. I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams, but I don't think this is the game that knocks Notre Dame out for good this season. Look further ahead on the schedule to USC, or Navy (!), or Army (!!!). UL: 20--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Was the NIU game a let down game or is it reality? Is Louisville legit? Not really sure. Notre Dame has put up the better schedule to this point. I guess this game comes down to if the Domers can score enough points. Louisville is going to move the ball and put up points. The Irish have struggled moving the ball against better teams. I tend to lean on history here and Notre Dame just has trouble winning the big ones. UL: 28--ND: 24
Seeberg: You know how I know we're still too early in the college football season? I just asked myself "are either of these teams good?" And my definitive answer for BOTH squads was a shrug of the shoulders. ND destroyed a middling Purdue team after losing to the 4th best MAC team at home the week before. Louisville played a close game against Georgia Tech, the team that was briefly ranked on the heels of a great win against...oops, nevermind. Sorry, Chief. It's strength on strength when Louisville is on offense. Short fields will be critical for the Golden Domers to put up enough points to win this one, but I think they do put up just enough to do it. UL: 23--ND: 24
Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: Always a marquee matchup, but I don't have a good bead on either team. The Dawgs slapped Clemson in the 2nd half but looked downright pedestrian against UK. I haven't seen a UGA run defense get gashed liked they did in Lexington in a long time. Bama really hasn't seen any true competition. Yeah, walking into Camp Randall is usually a tall order, but this Wisconsin squad is not the Alvarez wrecking crew. This is a major statement game for both programs. Has UGA officially taken over as SEC kings or are they coming for the king and missing? Nick Saban no longer prowls the sideline, but there's no denying the talent. Milroe has a chance to vault into the heisman conversation, but it will take a LOT to beat this defense. It's in Tuscaloosa, but I'm going with a TIGHT Georgia win. I don't think they are nearly as good as the last few years, but I also see regression from the Tide. UGA: 24--Bama: 20
Hoying: For all of Buckeye Nation dangling the Sword of Damocles over Ryan Day's head for his futility against the rival since 2019, whom do you expect would do a better job? The obvious "never gonna happen" choice would be Kirby Smart, as the owner of two national titles in the last three seasons, notwithstanding that Ruggles' field goal not turning into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight on New Year's 2023 would instead have put Day and Smart at one title apiece. Given the weak Playoff field last year and how Georgia utterly dog-walked FSU in the Orange Bowl, you could even say that Georgia should have been threepeaters if not for a disappointing upset loss in the SEC Championship. But hark, who was that team that upset Georgia last year? It was Alabama, the same team that has been the Sonic to Kirby's Dr. Robotnik ever since he put on the red visor with the black G. Remember, Kirby didn't stroll into Athens and start winning titles on day 1. Instead, Alabama blocked his path, in the 2017 title game, the 2018 SEC Championship, the 2020 regular season, the 2021 SEC Championship, and, as aforesaid, the 2023 SEC Championship. Kirby's first title only happened because Georgia got to take advantage of a rematch with Alabama in the national championship; his Dawgs have NEVER beaten Alabama in the teams' first matchup of the season. Smart has exactly one undefeated season at Georgia: the year they didn't play Alabama at all! You think Ryan Day has a problem with his rival? But all of this was during the Nick Saban era, and it's not like a lot of other SEC teams were having great success against Old Nick either. This game will be a crucial bellwether for the pecking order of the SEC going forward, setting aside for the moment whether Texas is back. These teams this season play very different styles, with Georgia being the Steady Eddies on offense and Alabama going all-or-nothing every play with Jalen Milroe. With an offense like Alabama's, they're going to get theirs on a few plays; the question is whether they can deliver when it counts. Last year's SEC Championship was decided by a missed field goal and a strip sack fumble, and while I don't expect Carson Beck to be rattled in his second year as a starter, a raucous night environment in Tuscaloosa may cause the weird plays to break the home team's way. I got poor (so to speak) betting against Bama all last season, and they darn near won the national championship anyway. As long as Milroe and his new center (thanks for McLaughlin by the way) are on the same page this year, I'm not picking against the Tide anytime soon. UGA: 24--Bama: 27
Hoying: For all of Buckeye Nation dangling the Sword of Damocles over Ryan Day's head for his futility against the rival since 2019, whom do you expect would do a better job? The obvious "never gonna happen" choice would be Kirby Smart, as the owner of two national titles in the last three seasons, notwithstanding that Ruggles' field goal not turning into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight on New Year's 2023 would instead have put Day and Smart at one title apiece. Given the weak Playoff field last year and how Georgia utterly dog-walked FSU in the Orange Bowl, you could even say that Georgia should have been threepeaters if not for a disappointing upset loss in the SEC Championship. But hark, who was that team that upset Georgia last year? It was Alabama, the same team that has been the Sonic to Kirby's Dr. Robotnik ever since he put on the red visor with the black G. Remember, Kirby didn't stroll into Athens and start winning titles on day 1. Instead, Alabama blocked his path, in the 2017 title game, the 2018 SEC Championship, the 2020 regular season, the 2021 SEC Championship, and, as aforesaid, the 2023 SEC Championship. Kirby's first title only happened because Georgia got to take advantage of a rematch with Alabama in the national championship; his Dawgs have NEVER beaten Alabama in the teams' first matchup of the season. Smart has exactly one undefeated season at Georgia: the year they didn't play Alabama at all! You think Ryan Day has a problem with his rival? But all of this was during the Nick Saban era, and it's not like a lot of other SEC teams were having great success against Old Nick either. This game will be a crucial bellwether for the pecking order of the SEC going forward, setting aside for the moment whether Texas is back. These teams this season play very different styles, with Georgia being the Steady Eddies on offense and Alabama going all-or-nothing every play with Jalen Milroe. With an offense like Alabama's, they're going to get theirs on a few plays; the question is whether they can deliver when it counts. Last year's SEC Championship was decided by a missed field goal and a strip sack fumble, and while I don't expect Carson Beck to be rattled in his second year as a starter, a raucous night environment in Tuscaloosa may cause the weird plays to break the home team's way. I got poor (so to speak) betting against Bama all last season, and they darn near won the national championship anyway. As long as Milroe and his new center (thanks for McLaughlin by the way) are on the same page this year, I'm not picking against the Tide anytime soon. UGA: 24--Bama: 27
Schweinfurth: Some things got lost in the off season. Remembering Milroe has trouble passing, the loss of Nick Saban, and amount of talent that transferred out of Bama just to name a few. Alabama is a good team. Georgia is a great team. The Bulldogs continue to be stacked and made a decent Clemson team look pitiful in week 1. I've got Georgia on the road here. The deck is just too stacked against the Tide. UGA: 35--Bama: 17
Seeberg: Despite inconsistency with throwing (and snaps- may not have been McLaughlin's fault in hindsight), Bama looks every bit the juggernaut they were under Saban. Enter the recent achilles heel in Georgia, a team with better quarterback play and comparable-to-slightly-better play everywhere else. The added incentive of payback for last year's SEC title tilt should still be fresh enough in the Bulldogs' minds to not let this one get away. UGA pulls away late. UGA: 27--Bama: 16
Seeberg: Despite inconsistency with throwing (and snaps- may not have been McLaughlin's fault in hindsight), Bama looks every bit the juggernaut they were under Saban. Enter the recent achilles heel in Georgia, a team with better quarterback play and comparable-to-slightly-better play everywhere else. The added incentive of payback for last year's SEC title tilt should still be fresh enough in the Bulldogs' minds to not let this one get away. UGA pulls away late. UGA: 27--Bama: 16
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: Bert has been a fun story, and the Illini might be pretty darn good, but I don't thing they can roll into Happy Valley at night and steal one. While PSU is still filling the role of 'this is the year we finally take a top spot' (until we face one of the big 2), this is a game they traditionally take. Home game, hopeful upstart trying to dethrone them (from 3rd place), night game....I've seen this story with Iowa too many times. In terms of wins over expected, the Illini are kings, but this is too steep of a mountain. ILL: 17--PSU: 30
Hoying: Buckle up, Buckeye fans. It looks like the 2023 Penn State worldbeater we were all promised last year has finally arrived. The defense is still suffocating (outside of a curious porosity through the air against Bowling Green), and Drew Allar is finally capable of pushing the ball downfield instead of just scrupulously avoiding mistakes. The two headed monster at RB hasn't gone anywhere either, and while they aren't nearly as good as our own world-beaters (or maybe even the Don and Jor-El up north), they'll still be able to cause problems for all but the most elite of run defenses. And Illinois, for all their improvement under Bert, does not have an elite run defense. Or secondary. Or quarterback. Or rushing attack...there's just nothing for the Illini to exploit against Penn State. With teams like Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan still on the schedule, Illinois should be able to snag a bowl berth this year, but wins over the true heavies will need another season or two of development first. Ill: 13--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Illinois is having a great start to the season so far. A big(ish) road win over Nebraska last week does nothing but bolster the start. Here's the problem, Penn State is one of the more talented teams in the B1G and Drew Allar is lighting it up. This will be step up for the fighting Berts. It may be a step too far. Penn State should win here. ILL: 14--PSU:31
Seeberg: The Illini did the college football world a favor last week by slowing down the Nebraska hype in typically grind-it-out Bielema fashion. Remember when these two played 9 OTs to be the first to 20? Illinois would love a similar situation here. Keeping Penn State in the 20s is possible, but getting into the 20s is more likely to be their issue. Too much pass rush from the Lions and just enough plays from Allar and Co. make this a 2-score win. ILL: 13--PSU: 24
Hoying: Buckle up, Buckeye fans. It looks like the 2023 Penn State worldbeater we were all promised last year has finally arrived. The defense is still suffocating (outside of a curious porosity through the air against Bowling Green), and Drew Allar is finally capable of pushing the ball downfield instead of just scrupulously avoiding mistakes. The two headed monster at RB hasn't gone anywhere either, and while they aren't nearly as good as our own world-beaters (or maybe even the Don and Jor-El up north), they'll still be able to cause problems for all but the most elite of run defenses. And Illinois, for all their improvement under Bert, does not have an elite run defense. Or secondary. Or quarterback. Or rushing attack...there's just nothing for the Illini to exploit against Penn State. With teams like Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan still on the schedule, Illinois should be able to snag a bowl berth this year, but wins over the true heavies will need another season or two of development first. Ill: 13--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Illinois is having a great start to the season so far. A big(ish) road win over Nebraska last week does nothing but bolster the start. Here's the problem, Penn State is one of the more talented teams in the B1G and Drew Allar is lighting it up. This will be step up for the fighting Berts. It may be a step too far. Penn State should win here. ILL: 14--PSU:31
Seeberg: The Illini did the college football world a favor last week by slowing down the Nebraska hype in typically grind-it-out Bielema fashion. Remember when these two played 9 OTs to be the first to 20? Illinois would love a similar situation here. Keeping Penn State in the 20s is possible, but getting into the 20s is more likely to be their issue. Too much pass rush from the Lions and just enough plays from Allar and Co. make this a 2-score win. ILL: 13--PSU: 24
THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans
Draper: Will Howard finally breaks in to B1G Play with a road date with Sparty. Sparty, too, is a shell of their former selves. New front man Jonathan Smith is trying to bring a little more swagger to East Lansing, but this won't happen in a single year. Aiden Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance...and flashes of 'huh?'. I think we'll see a little of both here. The key to this game is to keep the offense chugging along at Mach 5. Chip Kelly called a masterful game last week setting up these stud running backs for monstrous success. Howard need only take care of the ball and orchestrate the passes when needed (AND STAY HEALTHY PLEASE!). MSU doesn't scare me on the defensive side. The defense was taken to the endzone twice last week, but Marshall made some phenomenally tight throws/catches that Jim Knowles simply tips his cap. I expect at least 2 turnovers by the bullets, but maybe an explosive play given up. Another blitz on offense and a steady diet of the Bullets spells success. OSU: 48--MSU: 16
Hoying: So many dreams of mine have been shattered this season. Not to trail in any game (thanks, Akron). To score 50 points every time (thanks, Marshall). I'll just have to settle for 2019 regular season dominance with 2014 postseason afterburners. And there's nobody better to pace the juggernaut for another week than the Spartans. Remember back in the early Urban days when this game used to be competitive, even back-and-forth? MSU has completely collapsed since then, particularly on defense. Back in 2017, the last two-headed monster of Mike Weber and JK Dobbins racked up over 280 on the ground to pulverize Sparty, and ever since then they've existed to serve as target practice for each Buckeye QB de l’année. Even Honda McCord was bombing all over them just last year, serving up 3 TDs and 149 yards to Maserati Marv in a last push to get him to NY for the Heisman ceremony (it worked). New Green and White coach Jonathan Smith has done a commendable job raiding the transfer portal to shore up the many, many holes that plagued 2023 Michigan State, but this isn't a secondary that can be fixed all at once. And if you thought Jalen Milroe was feast-or-famine (see above), Spartan fans have been tearing their hair out over their own dual-threat anything-is-possible-on-any-play QB, Aiden Chiles. After letting Marshall get the drop on them running out of spread formations, look for the Silver Bullets to play contain, sit back, and wait for Chiles to make a boneheaded mistake. Then keep pounding and pounding and pounding with some catch and runs liberally distributed among this year's WR-by-committee, and hopefully one or two over the top to bolster Howard's deep ball game. Then sit back and relax and watch the Peoples champion salt the game away in the 4th. Man, I loved 2019. OSU: 38--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: That two headed monster in the Buckeye backfield is just wrong. Judkins is a cheat code and Tre isn't far behind. Combine that with Chip Kelly's running schemes and the Bucks are so hard to stop. I haven't even talked about the receivers yet. I really feel that we haven't seen anything other than fairly vanilla play calls on both sides of the ball. Knowles will dial up a blitz maybe once or twice a game. I'm not freaking out about the defense after last week. They go schemed on a few plays and Marshall's QB made some unreal plays. The offense adds a few wrinkles every week, but it seems fairly basic so far. This week isn't much better as far as the opponent is concerned. I expect more of the same - tons of Judkins and Henderson with some quick hitters from Howard thrown in to keep Sparty honest. This should be a whipping. OSU: 49--MSU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, Sparty week. Great college football fan base, and, frankly, the best team in that state for most of the last decade. No longer. Sparty is a shadow of the teams past that sprung huge upsets from time to time. Still, they're a half step up from previous competition with a good pass rush and an electric-yet-inconsistent QB who will probably throw a 40+ yard TD and a pick six in the same half. Hoping Buckeye Nation doesn't freak out when a few growing pains, likely in the pass game and pass rush- show up this week. They will scheme to get Chiles out of the pocket and bring the house any time a passing down hits Will Howard. That said, this run attack is just too good to get bogged down for four quarters against an inferior opponent, and it will wear Sparty's good D-line down where the depth just isn't quite there. Slower game, fewer possessions, but a comfortable win nonetheless. OSU: 38--MSU: 10
Hoying: So many dreams of mine have been shattered this season. Not to trail in any game (thanks, Akron). To score 50 points every time (thanks, Marshall). I'll just have to settle for 2019 regular season dominance with 2014 postseason afterburners. And there's nobody better to pace the juggernaut for another week than the Spartans. Remember back in the early Urban days when this game used to be competitive, even back-and-forth? MSU has completely collapsed since then, particularly on defense. Back in 2017, the last two-headed monster of Mike Weber and JK Dobbins racked up over 280 on the ground to pulverize Sparty, and ever since then they've existed to serve as target practice for each Buckeye QB de l’année. Even Honda McCord was bombing all over them just last year, serving up 3 TDs and 149 yards to Maserati Marv in a last push to get him to NY for the Heisman ceremony (it worked). New Green and White coach Jonathan Smith has done a commendable job raiding the transfer portal to shore up the many, many holes that plagued 2023 Michigan State, but this isn't a secondary that can be fixed all at once. And if you thought Jalen Milroe was feast-or-famine (see above), Spartan fans have been tearing their hair out over their own dual-threat anything-is-possible-on-any-play QB, Aiden Chiles. After letting Marshall get the drop on them running out of spread formations, look for the Silver Bullets to play contain, sit back, and wait for Chiles to make a boneheaded mistake. Then keep pounding and pounding and pounding with some catch and runs liberally distributed among this year's WR-by-committee, and hopefully one or two over the top to bolster Howard's deep ball game. Then sit back and relax and watch the Peoples champion salt the game away in the 4th. Man, I loved 2019. OSU: 38--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: That two headed monster in the Buckeye backfield is just wrong. Judkins is a cheat code and Tre isn't far behind. Combine that with Chip Kelly's running schemes and the Bucks are so hard to stop. I haven't even talked about the receivers yet. I really feel that we haven't seen anything other than fairly vanilla play calls on both sides of the ball. Knowles will dial up a blitz maybe once or twice a game. I'm not freaking out about the defense after last week. They go schemed on a few plays and Marshall's QB made some unreal plays. The offense adds a few wrinkles every week, but it seems fairly basic so far. This week isn't much better as far as the opponent is concerned. I expect more of the same - tons of Judkins and Henderson with some quick hitters from Howard thrown in to keep Sparty honest. This should be a whipping. OSU: 49--MSU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, Sparty week. Great college football fan base, and, frankly, the best team in that state for most of the last decade. No longer. Sparty is a shadow of the teams past that sprung huge upsets from time to time. Still, they're a half step up from previous competition with a good pass rush and an electric-yet-inconsistent QB who will probably throw a 40+ yard TD and a pick six in the same half. Hoping Buckeye Nation doesn't freak out when a few growing pains, likely in the pass game and pass rush- show up this week. They will scheme to get Chiles out of the pocket and bring the house any time a passing down hits Will Howard. That said, this run attack is just too good to get bogged down for four quarters against an inferior opponent, and it will wear Sparty's good D-line down where the depth just isn't quite there. Slower game, fewer possessions, but a comfortable win nonetheless. OSU: 38--MSU: 10
Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over Utah
Hoying: Washington State over Boise State
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Ole Miss
Seeberg: Minnesota over Michigan
