Standings:
1.) Draper 33-14 (1-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-16 (3-9 upset)
2.) Seeberg 31-16 (3-9 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 31-16 (1-11 upset)
As we all suspected, late November arrives with the Buckeyes facing their third giant hurdle of the season. Teams are entering the Thunderdome across the nation, from the Big 12, to a non-Power 4 battle, to the Big Ten showdown right in our backyard. Only one can leave each with their Playoff dreams fully intact. Let's get to shattering.
Hoying: Much like their NFL mirror, the Steelers, BYU finally got their comeuppance this week at the hands of an unlikely opponent. All dreams of an at-large bid to the CFP are dead, in part because this week’s ranking showed that they likely would’ve careened down the rankings even if their first loss had come in the Big 12 Championship. And speaking of, it’s no longer a virtual lock that the Cougs will represent the Big 12 at Jerryworld on December 7, because another surprise team, Arizona State, is hot on their heels. BYU can still clinch a berth with a win on Saturday, but now that everyone can see that the emperor has no clothes, I’m not sure the Sun Devils are going to be intimidated. ASU still has one of the nation’s leading rushers in Cam Skattebo (dop dop dop yes yes), and the Cougs have been vulnerable on the ground. Let the freefall continue. BYU: 20—ASU: 24
Schweinfurth: BYU finally didn't escape last week and opened the door for the Buffs. Well, that makes things interesting in the Big 12. The Cougars are still a decent team and I can't see them dropping two in a row. BYU: 21--ASU: 17
Seeberg: Well, the Sun Devils certainly answered the bell last week. The Cougars…not so much. I still think BYU is the slightly better team but ASU plays a ton of close games and generally ends up on the winning side. At home, with experience closing out close games, I think the Sun Devils keep rolling. BYU: 24—ASU: 27
Hoying: OK, so they can’t really throw the ball effectively. And it’s hard to know how good they really are since they just keep blowing out mid teams week after week. But enough about Notre Dame…The Black Knights were the only team in the country that never trailed in any game before North Texas managed to score a FG on their opening drive in Army’s last outing. That generally puts the Knights' opponents in a really bad position, as Army can basically spend the rest of the game running clock and running the rock while their opponents desperately flail to keep up. Now, Notre Dame doesn’t boast an elite offense (especially QB Riley Leonard, who sucks), but they do have one of the nation’s top defenses…against the pass. They have been a bit vulnerable to rushing attacks from Northern Illinois and, um, Navy. But the Irish didn’t give up 17 points to either. Heck, they’ve only given up 17 points once this season, against Louisville. You really think that Army, with their plodding triple option attack, is going to be able to score against this stiff Irish front? Navy tried it and got the screen doors blown off their submarines. Playing a triple option team sucks, but when you face it the second time, you have a better idea of what to expect. The Irish keep rolling toward a primetime Playoff date in South Bend. Army: 17—ND: 31
Schweinfurth: I would love to see Army stay undefeated into the Navy game. It's such a great story and great for the sport, especially in the NIL world. With that said, Army can't match the talent on the Irish roster. The triple option always gives teams issues, but the Domers handled Navy with relative ease. I fear more of the same here. Army: 21--ND: 34
Seeberg: Harkening back to the days of yore with this top 20 contest. Army is a better version of Navy this year, but the golden domers had little trouble with the triple option last month. Other than a close game against Louisville, Freeman and Co. have been rolling opponents since that inexplicable loss to middle-of-the-road MAC opponent in NIU. Army will, of course, try to shorten the game (a la Northwestern last week), but I just don’t think they have the horses to hang for 4 quarters. Army: 17—ND: 35
Hoying: The public demands more Minnesota content, and we aim to please. The Big Ten is essentially a 3-tier conference this year: (1) the four contenders (Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State) at the top, (2) Purdue at the bottom, and (3) a gross miasma of the remaining thirteen teams in the middle. So the gravy train’s over, Nittany Lions, you got your free win against the Boilermakers last week, now it’s time to step back into the muck. Like all miasma teams, Minnesota is having a completely inexplicable season, completing the L.A. sweep and knocking off Illinois in Champaign but fresh off a loss to Rutgers. The Gophers boast an excellent +12 turnover margin on the year but that’s about all in the way of superlatives for these guys. As for Penn State, you know them, you pity them, they’re the same good-to-great team that eats pieces of crap for breakfast that they’ve been for the last 8 seasons. The Lions haven’t lost to an unranked team (or any team ranked lower than 12) since 2021’s delightful 9OT romp against Illinois. They’re so close to their first Playoff berth that they can taste it. Free to kill Gophers at will. PSU: 27—Minn: 13
Schweinfurth: Let's keep this one simple. Penn State isn't playing TTUN or Ohio State. That means the Franklin Brain Cramp isn't in effect. I respect what PJ Fleck is doing at Minnesota, but it's not enough against a team like this. The Lions should win this without too much drama. PSU: 35--Minn: 17
Seeberg: Not a lot of great upsets to try to pick on the board this week. Thought about this one til I realized we were actually picking it. The Gophers are cobbling together another respectable season under PJ Fleck; however, it feels like that program is still a step or two away from what its peak could be: challenging the Iowas and Wisconsins of the world for the best of the 2nd tier conference schools. Still, they’ve had 2 weeks of prep for this one and Penn State’s offense has been underwhelming all year despite gobs of talent. It should be competitive for awhile, but they aren’t ranked, so Franklin shouldn’t, in theory, crap the bed. Lions pull away late. PSU: 31—Minn: 17
Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: OSU finally gets a top 5 matchup at home. Say what you will about the B1G schedules, but OSU got the raw end with games @Oregon, @PSU, and vs. IU (while they all avoid each other)....but you don't want it any other way. Indiana is the shocker of the season and they are legit good. Curt Cignetti can already print the T-shirts for Coach of the Year, but this Buckeye team will have something to say about whether this IU team goes down as the greatest IU team of all time or one of the greatest college football stories of all time. 2 major factors in the game: can the re-retooled OSU Oline step up to the plate once more and run the dang ball and can the OSU secondary limit Kurtis Rourke? I think yes and maybe. I have strong faith that the Buckeye offense will go to work as the Hoosier defense hasn't seen a team near this level of offensive efficiency. Regarding the secondary, it's going to need help from the pass rush (please) and the crowd. Utilize the 12th man and we'll be just fine. I expect to see the return of Emeka, another ho-hum TD by Smith, and 150+ on the ground. Bucks take 2 of 3 vs. top 5 teams, continue the longest consecutive win streak, and turn eyes to TTUN. IU: 17--OSU: 34
Hoying: Finally, it’s arrived. The Super Bowl, for Indiana at
least. For the Buckeyes, it’s Saturday. The Hoosiers are putting together a
season every bit as magical as their Big Ten Championship years of 1945 and 1967.
Only problem is, they didn’t play Ohio State either of those years. The Buckeyes
crushed Indiana’s dreams in 2020 and they’re primed to do it again. Even with
both of OSU’s star transfers on the offensive line sidelined for the season, and
with Indiana’s Colorado-esque collection of portal hoppers at full strength,
the Hoosiers simply aren’t good enough to just line up across from Ohio State
and beat them strength-on-strength. They’re like the plucky cream (and crimson) of the G5
crop, ready to jump up and snakebite whoever is unlucky enough to be circled on
the calendar, but with (low-end) Big Ten talent backing it up. The Buckeyes saw
a few wrinkles from Oregon that the Ducks had been safely keeping in their pockets
during their ho-hum early season buildup, and I expect the Hoosiers to do the
same, especially with an open date last week to really give them a chance to
tailor their gameplan to the Bucks. The bullcrap detectors better be finely tuned
this week, lest the Hoosiers take advantage of Ohio State’s usual early-game
sleepiness, put up a surprising early lead, and then try to white knuckle out
the remaining 45-50 minutes before the patented Third Quarter Death Machine can
set right what once went wrong. But Indiana doesn’t have Oregon’s talent. They
don’t have Penn State’s home field advantage (or talent). And I don’t expect
Will Howard to be minus 14 points in the turnover game this week. As long as
the new-look interior line (now with Center Classic) can hold up long enough
for Howard to find his targets downfield, the Bucks should be able to outpace
whatever Indiana can throw at them. On to the game that matters. IU: 17—OSU:
28
Schweinfurth: Welcome to the big show, Indiana. Curt Cignetti has done an amazing job this year by raising the Hoosiers from the depths of perennial suck. However, he kicked the hornets' nest. You can believe his comments about Ohio State have been shown in the Woody on a loop. He is also fighting against history here. The last time Indiana rolled into Ohio Stadium as a top ten team, the Fully Extended Penix got beat handily until the weirdness of 2020 let them back in. Yes, the Bucks lost Seth McLaughlin, but I have faith Chip Kelly and company can scheme around the loss. Having Will Howard's experience will be a big help as well. I fully expect some BS back throw catches by Indiana, because that's what they do. However, the Hoosiers just don't have the talent and horses to hold on. I expect a close game at half with the Bucks pulling away late. IU: 20--OSU: 35
Seeberg: Ah yes, the day has finally arrived! The huge late November matchups between two top-5 opponents in neighboring states. The scarlet and gray, the maize and…wait, hang on, I’m being told it’s Indiana??? The only time this game has ever been a top 5 matchup was in NCAA Football 2004 when I chose to bring IU out of the ashes as my dynasty. 39 natties in 60 years. Clearly I spent my free time in the dorms wisely. Regardless, the Hoosiers are here, they haven’t lost, and despite a lousy schedule, they have largely looked the part of a world beater. It’s just tough to get past the name on the uniform. In Columbus, the Seth McLaughlin news hit hard as OSU will have to roll out its 5th different O-line configuration in 11 games. It’s as if the Browns O-line curse is contagious. The good news is that IU wants to score and likely won’t try to grind the game to a halt like NW. The bad news is that it will be harder for our offense to stay on the field with the depleted line. Also- why aren’t we throwing to Emeka any more? 9 catches in the last 4 games. He had 40 in the first 6. Down the stretch I’d really like to see him get 5+ catches each game. I do believe our line can still wear IU down over four quarters but make no mistake: this game will be at least a 3-quarter contest and quite possibly all four. The bonus week of prep for IU coupled with OSU’s painfully slow starts almost ensure it. TTUN made some great halftime adjustments and held the Hoosiers to less than 50 yards in the second half. I expect similar adjusting and domination and the Bucks should pull away a bit late. IU: 20-–OSU: 31
Upset Special
Draper: UF over Ole Miss
Hoying: Utah over Iowa State
Schweinfurth: Virginia over SMU
Seeberg: Kentucky over Texas
