Standings:
1.) Hoying 25-12 (2-7 upset)
2.) Seeberg 24-13 (2-7 upset)
2.) Draper 24-13 (1-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 24-13 (1-8 upset)
After a sleepy first half of the season, the hits keep coming for the Buckeyes, as they'll (hopefully) never go three weeks without facing a top championship contender for the rest of the season. Phase two of the gauntlet is good old not-our-rivals in one of the most intimidating home environments in college football. Let's go.
Schweinfurth: When is the last time these two were relevant? Pre death sentence SMU and maybe 95 Pitt? Either way, these two are both in the mix in the ACC. Both teams can put up some points too. Granted Pitt ran away from the 'Cuse as Kyle McCord just threw another pick. Both team seem to be rolling into this game as well. I'll say this one is a shoot out. Pitt's not playing McCord this week so SMU wins. Pitt: 35--SMU:38
Seeberg: After a season of great games, a lot of the top 25 is off this week, leaving us with the OSU PSU banger and...this one? Remarkably, just one loss between these two. Pitt has the lowest ranking for an undefeated power however-many team at this stage in the season since the inception of the AP poll in 1936. Both squads are playing like it's the 80s, when Pitt had Dan Marino and SMU had an ancient (and illegal) forerunner of NIL. I don't know if either of these teams is actually good, but I do know they're both good enough to beat that sham of a team in Miami if it comes to a conference title tilt (Clemson is still the favorite in my humble opinion). Regardless, both of these teams need this one to stay on track for that possibility. One thing I do know is that Pitt is unlikely to benefit from FIVE interceptions again this week (and three pick sixes!). Giddy up, the Mustangs are back. Pitt: 24--SMU: 31
The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The game behind The Game. Everyone keeps talking about Ryan Day's record in top matchups, but we don't talk about his dominance of everyone else...including the Nittany Lions. While some real blemishes popped up last week, I choose to believe that was a combination of 1. bad game (can't ignore that), 2. holding something back in the scheme (worst game Chip has called), 3. simple look ahead, and 4. breaking in a new Oline. Whether that's true or not, I'm hopeful as this team was sloppy at best last week and didn't look themselves. Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, and TTUN have stout defensive fronts that we absolutely need to be better against (and I think we will) but the line must eliminate the stupid mistakes they showed against the Huskers. On the other side of the ball, I'm happy with the defensive maturation last week and some more creative playcalls to get lines at the QB. I anticipate Allar will be out, but regardless, the Buckeye defense needs to be as good or better than they were next week, while the offense needs to return to form. The running game was pedestrian to bad last week and it won't get it done here. I expect the playbook to completely open up in Happy Valley with QB runs, clean misdirection, and more downfield passing (with max protect). It won't be easy, but nothing easy is worth it. This is a game for this team to look in the mirror and think about how they want to be remembered...champions or one of the biggest flops of returning talent. This is the first game on the new path to greatness and the Bucks step up to the challenge. Will Howard will make some crucial short yardage plays, Egbuka and Judkins will keep the chains moving while Henderson and Smith provide the fireworks, and the defense steps up BIG forcing 4+ sacks and a key turnover. OSU: 24--PSU: 20
Hoying: I'll say it again. The ledge. Come off of it. Yes, last week wasn't the "get right" game we were hoping for after we died of dysentery on the Oregon trail. At least not on the offensive side of the ball. But the narrative coming off of the loss to the Ducks was that the Bucks needed to be more creative on defense to force more tackles for loss and turnovers. How do 13 TFLs and a game-clinching interception sound in response? Yes, the offense ran a grand total of 48 plays, in part because Nebraska was able to play keep-away somewhat on offense, but the bend-but-don't break Buckeye D was back in action, peppered with some abrupt drive killers this time. Even Will Howard gifting the Huskers a possession starting on the Buckeye 7 yard line ended with zero points for Nebraska. All this being said, it's impossible to ignore how inept the offense looked last week. Part of it was starting a new LT, which we will now do again for the second straight week. Part of it was the rest of the line looking like they just learned the signals last Friday (except you, Seth, we love you, Seth). Part of it was Howard missing some obvious reads, even though his passing game was overall very efficient and he was able to create when the line didn't hold up. And that's what gives me the most hope for this game. Look, last time these teams met it wasn't like the Buckeyes had all the room in the world to make anything happen on offense, either. The game was basically 60 minutes of both teams beating their heads against the wall until Marvelous Marv was able to spring open for a play or two. And that was with Chevy "Like a Rock" McCord standing transfixed in the pocket. Remember, the Buckeyes were a defensive hold away from a strip sack defensive TD disaster in that game. In a reminder of why everyone loved/hated his offense when he was the coach, Urban came out this week and said the Buckeyes will need to run Howard 15-20 times in this game to have the best chance at success, and I'm inclined to agree. No point in trying to keep him bubble-wrapped at this point with the entire season on the line. Last week had the feeling of trying to white knuckle out a win without putting anything on tape for the Lions for how the offense was going to operate with the line reshuffled. Obviously that goes out the window with the line reshuffled again, but I'm sure Chip has enough in his bag of tricks to get the W this week so long as the offense can execute. And it's not like Penn State is a juggernaut on offense either. Their RBs are comparable to ours, if a step behind, and I don't expect Allar to go 18-42 like he did last year, but where are the receivers? If you can't get this Buckeye defense to take a step or two off of the line of scrimmage, then I expect Penn State to have the kind of offensive success they had last year, with 6 points through the first 59 minutes. The one wild card is TE Tyler Warren, but generally it's not a great sign of a strong offense when your best receiving threat is a tight end. That's what Wisconsin offenses look like. It'll take a great game from the Buckeye safeties and linebackers to contain Warren, but Downs has been a rock all year and Simon has been trending upwards. OSU: 20--PSU: 16
Schweinfurth: I'm gonna say it. Penn State does not feel like the #3 team in the country. I feel like this is a default ranking, but I can't fault the voters. However, I would put them there too right now. Now for this game. I really hope last week was a look ahead game. If nothing else, it sure got the Buckeyes' attention. They don't need any more motivation than to hear all the locals doubting this team. I do have faith that the Buckeye offense wasn't trying to show a lot while breaking in a new LT. Guess what, we have a new LG and LT this week. Great...This is the type of game why the Bucks got Will Howard. I expect to see more QB runs. Get the ball to the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. On defense, I enjoyed the changes made up front with more stunts and blitzes. It's time to be selectively aggressive. Allar may or may not play but Penn State doesn't really scare me down field. The athletic LB corps will be tested and I think they will pass this test. I'm taking the Bucks here, but a loss makes this year feel like 2005 all over again. OSU: 27--PSU: 24
Seeberg: Well folks, here we are. Litmus test number two, where highly stoppable force (Ryan Day, 2-6 vs. top five teams) meets easily movable object (James Franklin, 1-9 vs. Ohio State, 3-17 vs. top 10 teams). To be quite honest, Franklin's ineptitude in this game, and Penn State's unwillingness to continue playing it, makes much of the Buckeye fanbase not believe this is a big game, so Ryan Day is in a very precarious no-win scenario here. A win? Big deal, it's Penn State, they always choke against us. A LOSS? Oh dear, break out the guillotine. Both teams come off remarkably bleh performances last week, likely due in no small part to injuries (offensive line for OSU, Drew Allar for PSU). Allar will reportedly give it a go, but I'm sure we'll see the running QB also, a factor that has been the Silver Bullets' achilles heel in recent years (see: Dillon Gabriel TD run). Also, if anyone watched the USC/PSU game, we need to use approximately 8 men to cover their only trustworthy weapon in the pass game...the dreaded tight end (sorry Fleming, you ain't it). One thing I do know: If Jeremiah Smith has 4 targets again like last week, we probably lose. Marvin Harrison carried McCord and Co. to the win last year, and #2 and #4 need to add up to #18 this year. Speaking of #18, Will Howard continues to largely impress minus 1-2 "what the fu__" moments per game. Avoid those, and even with a banged up O-line, the Buckeyes likely win. Will the Pennsylvania kid be too amped up and try to force the issue? I don't know, but that doesn't seem to be his style thus far. I don't expect it to be pretty, but I do expect James Franklin to clam up with that bemused, I-don't-know-what's-happening out-here-and-I-wish-I-could-do-something-about-it look on his face. It won't be pretty, but the Bucks get it done. OSU: 24--PSU: 19
Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss
Hoying: Louisville over Clemson
Schweinfurth: MSU over Indiana
Seeberg: Duke over Miami
