Standings:
1.) Hoying 20-11 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 19-12 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 18-13 (2-6 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 18-13 (1-7 upset)
Realignment continues to pay dividends as the Oops! All Bangers 2024 season rolls along with five more ranked matchups. Raise your hand if you foresaw Navy, Illinois and Vanderbilt playing in ranked games in week 9, or if the fight for sole possession of first place in the SEC did not feature Alabama, Georgia, Texas, or Tennessee.
Hoying: Is it possible for a program like Notre Dame to be flying under the radar? Their season-opening win over TAMU has only appreciated as the season goes on, and while the Northern Illinois loss is still inexcusable, it appears to be more of a 2016-Clemson-loses-to-4-8-Syracuse blip than any true indication of ND's potential. The Irish haven't faced a lot of tests since then (Louisville is pretty OK), but it's not like this week's opponent has been facing a murderer's row in the AAAAAC either. So far out of conference, Navy has faced Bucknell (bad) and Air Force (bad but with shooty planes). And, credit where credit's due, the Midshipmen have generally looked terrific, matching their usual elite rushing offense with an effective-when-needed passing attack from Hilliard Darby's own Blake Horvath. You like red zone efficiency? The only team that does it better than the Buckeyes is Navy, although Notre Dame's no slouch with an 82% red zone TD rate either. This one comes down to who's been doing it against better competition, and although Notre Dame's weaker-than-advertised schedule still leaves a lot to be desired compared to the Floridas and Purdues of the world, it's the Irish who have proven themselves in a fight, not the military. ND: 31--Navy: 21
Schweinfurth: Navy (and Army) is undefeated 6 games into the season. It's been a long time since we could say that about the Midshipmen. I have always had a soft spot for the triple option, but this year is different. Navy can actually throw the ball! That adds another element to their offense that they just haven't had. With that said, see this coming down to a one score game. I'd love to see the military academies continue to win, but I think the Irish will just squeak by. ND: 35--Navy: 31
Seeberg: Hearkening back to the days of yore with this (ranked!) matchup. Navy, while significantly improved, have played a whole lotta nothing thus far this year. I do expect this one to be competitive, as we all know the triple option is a nightmare to defend and slows the game down as well. Over four quarters, however, ND's offense should have enough openings to have just enough breathing room that the golden domers can breathe easy in the fourth quarter. Irish pull away late. ND: 38--Navy: 20
Hoying: I tried to tell you last week, this Illinois team is dangerous. Or maybe Michigan is just really, really bad. Probably the latter. The Illini didn't do a great job of moving the ball against the Wolverines, but as predicted, they flustered the Michigan O and capitalized on turnovers. The Illini would love to do that again this week, but as some of you may have noticed a couple of weeks ago, it's not easy to get turnovers out of this Duck offense. Illinois did have some success slowing down the Big Ten's other non-Ohio State elite team when they were a missed field goal away from a halftime lead in Happy Valley, but the counterpunches just weren't coming often enough to put Penn State seriously on edge. I don't need to tell you much about Oregon; you saw what they did to the Buckeyes and they didn't look any less sharp obliterating Purdue last week. I am concerned with how long the Ducks can handle success, but you can pencil them into Indianapolis right now, and they won't face another serious test until then (maaaybe Camp Randall in a few weeks). This may be the biggest game left that they have to get up for. Ill: 13--UO: 34
Schweinfurth: I look at this game and, while Illinois is ranked, Oregon is by far the better team here. Teams have also struggled going out west this year. I just don't see a scenario where the Illini win in Eugene. Ill: 10--UO: 35
Seeberg: Oregon played probably an A-/B+ game at home and beat a D+ Buckeyes squad by one. Impressive? No. The Ducks don't need an A game to beat Illinois, but a C game could catch them out. Illinois doesn't run it quite as well as a typical Bert squad, but they're throwing it better to make up for it. The Fighting Illini don't exactly strike fear historically either, so the Ducks may come out flat as they did several times early in the season. Gabriel and Co. just have too many athletes over four quarters to let this one get away barring SERIOUS weirdness. Quack quack. Ill: 20--UO: 34
Hoying: Right now, the 7 teams at the top of the SEC standings list are Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and Vanderbilt. Obviously Missouri won't be playing themselves, but care to hazard a guess how many of the other 6 are on Missouri's schedule this season? Just two: the Aggies, who completely embarrassed the Tigers a few weeks ago, and Vanderbilt, who Missouri needed double overtime and and a missed FG to escape. The Tigers keep winning, I guess, but they're a far cry from the borderline top-10 SEC dark horse projection they drew in the offseason. The offense doesn't really work, and that's assuming that QB Brady Cook's even ready to go after traipsing around Bryant-Denny in a boot on Friday. Alabama has their own problems but I don't see any 30-point losses on their resume. It would help if Jalen Milroe didn't keep looking worse and worse and the Tide could find some semblance of a rushing attack, but they do still have the nation's best 17-year old receiver who is 17. I can't possibly pick Missouri to win this game; if Bama manages to blow this one then the wheels are really falling off in Tuscaloosa. Mizzou: 13--Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Looking at Mizzou this year, and I wonder how they were ranked. I guess that win over a massively depleted Ohio State team did wonders for the Tigers reputation. Again, similar to the game above, Bama is the much better team. They should win this one...barring any hangover from last week. Mizzou: 10--Bama: 28
Seeberg: Remember kids, there were signs that Vandy was much improved, and it started with a narrow OT loss to Mizzou. Seemed a fluke then, but if those two squads met now I'd pick the Commodores. In the Tigers come to Tuscaloosa, where dreams used to go to die. Now it seems everyone can keep it close? I expect the Tigers' D to do that for the majority of the game, but they're reeling on offense and just won't score enough to keep it close for four quarters. Get your ball-watching done in the first half this week, folks, by Q4 most of these games will be over for all intents and purposes. Mizzou: 13--Bama: 26
Hoying: OK, ha ha, it's been fun, but is this team for real? You have your non-conference Power 4 win (that has somewhat depreciated since then) but can you beat anyone with a pulse, Texas? Much like another team we know, the Longhorns looked invincible against cupcake city but were unable to deliver on the biggest stage, losing by multiple scores to Georgia at home. Suddenly the Texas O-line looks like a serious liability, and the embarrassment of riches at the QB position may be percolating into a bit of a controversy. Fortunately for the Longhorns, they don't face a stellar defense this week in Vanderbilt. Even in their crown jewel win over Alabama, the Dores gave up 35 points and struggled to stop the Tide at all after an early pick six gave Vandy a huge head start. Texas, like Missouri above, faces a pretty favorable SEC schedule this year, with the restored Lone Star Showdown against A&M as the only major test left on the schedule. But the eyes of Texas would clear up considerably if the Horns could look more like themselves against a quality team on the road. The punishing Texas defense should make that a reality. UT: 34--Vandy: 16
Schweinfurth: Yes, Vandy is ranked and a chaos team. Enter a reeling Longhorn team who have a QB controversy (but they don't?). I'm so confused. Vandy is going to give up a ton of points, so Diego Pavia is going to have to harness the chaos magic he used against the Tide here. I'm just not sure lightning can strike twice. But it would be funny. UT: 42--Vandy: 35
Seeberg: Texas's laughable schedule (Oklahoma with a freshman QB and no wideouts doesn't count) got exposed when Georgia pretty much handled them last week. Vandy would represent their new best win replacing...ULM. Seriously. Will the Nashvegas town get behind the Commodores? Were they even aware they played football until they saw goalposts being carried from the stadium down to the river? I'm not sure. Either way, Texas has no excuse to take the Pavia show lightly, and they won't. Horns back up. UT: 31--Vandy: 16
Hoying: I must be insane, because I'm honestly considering believing in a Texas A&M team after the season's midpoint. QB Connor Weigman has been no great shakes, paling especially in comparison to his gunslinging purple and gold counterpart, Garrett Nussmeier. But they don't ask him to do much; the Aggies very much more of a run-first team, with only five more passing attempts this season than That Team Up North. And it's not because they've been comfortably ahead in their games, either. Texas A&M has close wins against Bowling Green, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and, as mentioned above, a loss to Notre Dame where the Aggies couldn't get anything going. LSU's vulnerability is through the air, and that's a weakness TAMU will not be able to exploit. Time for the annual Aggie roller coaster to do its thing. LSU: 27--TAMU: 24
Seeberg: First impressions can be deceiving, as it seems it may have been for these two opponents. Both had seemingly understandable week one losses (though the USC loss looks rough now) but got right with the help of lousy schedules before beating ranked opponents last week. Oddly similar paths, and a tight game. Both teams also have legendary home environments, and the Aggies get that this time around. Hoping the 12th man reclaims their title that was stolen by the Longhorns crowd last week for literally getting a (bad) call overturned. Aggies in a fun one. LSU: 27--TAMU: 28
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ The
Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: It's time to restart the season an get back on
track. I hated having a bye week after Oregon to let the loss fester, but
there was some positive talk about Day getting more involved with the
defense. Whatever this beef is between Knowles and Johnson needs to go
away. Saban mentioned the line play has been bland and uninspired...and
he's right. Too often, we've been playing the 'I'm better than you so
I'll beat you by running you over'. While our DEs are special, the scheme
isn't doing them any favors. If we used this time to scheme something on
defense up front, look out Nebraska. There is little to no worry about
the offense so this week is about the defense. I expect a complete
beatdown. While Nebraska was embarrassed by IU, they'll have something
cooked up. It's up to this staff and players to be ready and quickly
"leave no doubt". Howard continues his fantastic season with 3
more TDs but the explosive plays on the ground return. Bucks
BIG. Neb: 13--OSU: 55
Hoying: Let's come down off the ledge. In our new era where
losses are more forgivable than ever before, losing by one point to the #1 team
at night on the road, where a sequence of bizarre accidents kept you from
making a game-winning play, is ripe for maximum clemency. The good news
is that now that all of your weaknesses (D-line pressure, deep secondary
coverage, consistent push from the O-line) have been laid bare, there's no
excuse for fixing them, now. Penn State in Happy Valley isn't going
to be any easier of a test, and another loss would complete the journey from
Playoff favorite to the Bucks' perennial stomping ground of Playoff bubble. And
while it would be nice to see some signs of improvement this week, there's no
need to open the bag of tricks just yet. The Hoosiers have done us the courtesy
of exposing Nebraska as one of this year's "fake good" teams, with an
offense that has only cracked 30 against UTEP and Northern Iowa this year. The
defense is there, yes, but part of that is function of playing teams like
Purdue and Rutgers; the defense didn't do much to stop Illinois or Indiana in
the Huskers' two losses. Dylan Raiola's decommitment may have thrown a
temporary wrench into Ohio State's long-term QB succession plans, but the
future sure isn't now for Nebraska the way it is for the Buckeyes. Will Howard
is handily outplaying him this season, and I really don't think the Buckeyes
are going to be disappointed settling for Julian Sayin or Air Noland going
forward. I like to look for mismatches in the games where the Buckeyes'
opponent is thoroughly outclassed, and I just don't see any pressure points for
Nebraska to exploit. Time for another ho-hum taking care of business blowout
for Ryan Day, and then on to another opportunity to flip the narrative. Neb:
10--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Nebraska is not as bad as they played last week at
Indiana. They just ran into a buzz saw and then chased the game. They are also
highly outgunned in this game. The Oregon game should have left an empty and
sick feeling in the Bucks stomach, but they still have everything to play for.
Let's see if there are any defensive changes made moving forward. Denzel Burke
needs help. The defensive line needs an updated pass rush. These things are
fixable. Day and company have had two weeks to make changes. Now it's time to
see if they actually did anything to get better over the bye week. As for this
game, the Bucks should win big after a slightly clunky start. Neb:
10--OSU: 45
Seeberg: Losing happens. It’s, ironically, more
frustrating (despite being more understandable) when you play nowhere near your
full capability. Such was the story in Eugene two weeks ago. In
hindsight, playing a lousy game and barely losing to a consensus top 5 opponent
on the road isn’t all that bad. Two weeks to let it simmer can be a
double-edged sword: Wanting to get that bad taste out of your mouth but
losing the rhythm of playing each week. The Bucks have started slowly
frequently this year, and I fear the game against the Huskers will produce more
of the same, particularly on defense. Knowles HAS to try some
more/different pressures and looks. Rushing only four AND leaving corners
on islands in patently insane. Indiana absolutely destroyed the Huskers,
but that felt like an aberration. Remember, Nebraska choked out Colorado,
28-0 in the fourth quarter before giving the backups some run. The good
news, Buckeye Nation, is that Will Howard played very well at Oregon, and
Nebraska’s defense isn’t nearly as good. Balanced offensive attack, more
pressure (fingers crossed) on D, and get ready for the other hardest road game
of the year in the Big (thanks, schedule makers) at PSU next week. Neb:
13—OSU: 38
Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Miami (because F Miami)
Hoying: Wisconsin over Penn State
Schweinfurth: Kansas over K-State
Seeberg: Duke over SMU
