Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 9: Another nice slate of games

Standings
1) Schweinfurth 27-5   (3-5 upset)
2) Hoying          23-9   (2-6 upset)
3) Draper          21-11 (2-6 upset)
4) Auer             18-10   (0-7 upset)

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, FL)
Draper: Time for the kiss of death.  I keep picking against the Gators and they won't die.  Therefore, they should destroy the Bulldogs in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party this weekend.  The Gators have been very impressive on defense, but their offense has been blah.  That being said, they have one of the most impressive resumes in the country.  The Dogs have looked good except in their one game against a solid defense...uh oh.  I think Aaron Murray will play well, and Jervis Jones will drive Driskell crazy, but the UF defense is just too good.  Gators win in a low scoring game.  UF: 16--UGA: 13
Auer: Florida has been a big surprise this year. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be rocking, and frankly, with Georgia's struggle against UK last week, this game shouldn't be very close. UF: 34--UGA: 10
Hoying: The Gators have won huge games at home, on the road, and I predict they'll add neutral field to the list on Saturday.  Georgia has a talented squad, but since shellacking Vanderbilt over a month ago, they've looked...average.  Squeaking by terrible Kentucky is no way to build momentum heading into a game with your rival.  So Florida has no QB.  Big deal.  The Bulldogs are surrendering 24 points a game (how's that for SEC defense), and an opportunistic Gator defense is ready to chomp down on Georgia QB Aaron Murray to put the Gator offense in great position.  We saw Florida-South Carolina.  We saw South Carolina-Georgia.  Rinse and repeat.  UF: 30--UGA: 16
Schweinfurth: Florida has the look of a very, very good team that just keeps getting better.  Georgia was rolling and then ran into a hot South Carolina team.  The Cocktail Party should be a good one.  Gillislee has looked like a true work horse back and that should continue this week.  This will be low scoring with Driskell doing just enough to manage the game.  UF: 20--UGA: 17


Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: I'll be honest, this is only on the slate because MSU is undefeated and a top 15 team.  I don't see Bama being tested at home.  The other SEC Bulldogs have been solid, but have played more cupcakes than Bama.  Dan Mullen has reached the ceiling for the year as the real part of the schedule gets started in Tuscaloosa.  Nick Saban and company should easily dispatch another top 15 pretender.  This game will also vault AJ McCarron into the Heisman talk (more substantially).  I don't think he'll win it since Bama wins on D, but he might work into a finalist talk.  MSU: 13--Bama: 38
Auer: I don't know jack about MSU, but I do know that Saban's Tide are a near-unstoppable force this season. AJ McCarron just might get some Heisman buzz this week. MSU: 3--Bama: 42
Hoying: If there's one undefeated BCS team that deserves as much respect as Ohio State this season, it's Mississippi State.  Just look at those great wins against...Tennessee...and...Middle Tennessee...OK, Alabama's schedule isn't great either, but they did play Michigan.  Expect to see that game replayed.  MSU: 0--Bama: 31
Schweinfurth: Alabama is the better team period.  McCarron has a decent game and the Tide D keeps rolling along. MSU: 6--Bama: 42

Texas Tech Red. Raiders @ Kansas State Wildcats
Draper: I believe in Bill Snyder and Collin Klein.  I've been riding high on the Wildcats all year, and I'm not stopping.  Seth Doege has put together a very nice resume in Lubbock but the one game they played against a defense (OU) was a miserable failure.  Texas Tech is a good team, but Kansas State is a great team.  I expect a utilitarian blue collar win as per usual in Manhattan.  The Raiders have a defense, but KSU forces you to play grind-it-out slobber-knocker footballThis isn't high-flying WVU that Texas Tech put on the ropes.  KSU keeps it rolling. TT: 20--KSU: 33
Auer: Tommy Tuberville is waiting in the weeds to surprise the Wildcats. Texas Tech was ready for the WVU onslaught, and KSU has been coming away with wins in all shapes and sizes. After the big win last week by Kansas State in Morgantown, they Wildcats could be in for a bit of a letdown. This one will be a barn-burner. TT: 35--KSU: 34
Hoying: How long can Bill Snyder Ensure his team will win against a brutal Big 12 schedule?  The 'Cats have been untouchable outside of Norman (understandable) and Ames (not so much), but one wonders how long they can keep it up.  The nation's deepest conference has no gimme games (looking at you, Kentucky and Auburn), and I don't believe that Kansas State can make it through unscathed.  Even though Texas Tech is well advertised as a very good team, this is a trap situation for Kansas State after a huge head-inflating win over the Mountaineers.  Collin Klein is the real deal, but I foresee a perfect storm of victory hangover, freak turnovers, and a deserving Tech team playing a flawless game to move back into the Big 12 title discussion.  Sorry, K-State.  TT: 21--KSU: 20
Schweinfurth: Collin Klein cemented himself as the Heisman leader at this point.  Texas Tech is good but really haven't beaten a top tier team yet.  KSU continues to show they are the class of the Big 12 and Klein's Heisman buzz continues to grow.  TT: 10--KSU: 31


Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: The Irish have their first real test of the season (no, Stanford at home and the Michigan schools don't count).  The Sooners are (nearly--see KSU) unbeatable in Norman and they have turned it on at the right time.  Notre Dame's defense has been spectacular all year, and features a legitimate Heisman contender in Teo, but OU features their own Heisman contender in Landry Jones.  Lost in all the attrition, Oklahoma is quietly hanging around playing very good football.  I don't see ND putting up many points at Oklahoma with their subpar offense which will be the end of the undefeated season.  BCS will still be in play, but the Sooners bring the Irish back to earth.  ND: 13--OU: 23
Auer: Ummmm, the Irish are two to four bad calls away from having 2-4 losses. I'm not impressed. OU has been dominant and will put down the overrated Irish and the pompous fanbase. Boomer sooner! ND: 10--OU: 38
Hoying: If there's one undefeated team as lucky as Ohio State this season, it's Notre Dame.  Still, the most important word in that sentence was undefeated, as the Irish are still very much in the championship hunt, and a win over Oklahoma would put them about on par with Kansas State (except the Wildcats are going to lose).  Meanwhile, the Sooners have been demolishing good opponents and Kansas since the tough loss to Kansas State.  The Wildcats needed both great offense (Klein) and stifling defense to squeak by the Sooners in Norman.  Notre Dame only fulfills half the requirements.  ND: 10--OU: 17
Schweinfurth: The Irish defense has looked very good so far.  The offense has a long way to go.  Everett Gholston is back this week but it won't be enough.  Oklahoma's offense has been on an absolute roll since demolishing Texas.  ND: 17--OU: 35


THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Penn State University Nittany Lions
Draper: Oh boy....which team is going to show up? The last two weeks have featured an atrocious apathetic defensive showing and a boring offensive failure.  Oh yeah, the most explosive player on the Buckeye offense was taken to the hospital...  Penn State has been playing very good football, but they haven't faced a team with the athletes OSU that has.  Miller should play which is a plus, but honestly, I think Guiton could handle the pressure (the road will be tough on him).  This is the Nittany Lions season in a nutshell.  The Buckeyes have 12-0 in their sights, but PSU has nothing to play for but beating OSU (potentially giving them the Leaders title).  Happy Valley is a tough place, but I think the Bucks put it together to remind Matt 'MOXIE' McGloin that there's a reason no other programs wanted him.  PSU will make stops against the Buckeye's inconsistent offense, but the Buckeye defense matches up extremely well with the Nittany Lion style of play.  One or two explosive plays by the Buckeyes send the Lions home crying.  OSU: 24--PSU: 20
Auer: After last week's thriller, who knows what the Bucks have in store this week. PSU on the road at night is always a problem, but really neither team is playing for something other than pride. OSU will be better prepared and the Urban assault will continue. OSU: 31--PSU: 10
Hoying: With Braxton back at the helm, suddenly this game doesn't seem so difficult to win.  Penn State hardly has an explosive offense (big performances against bad B1G defenses aside), and the Buckeyes seem to have found a groove on defense after the embarrassment at Indiana.  Miller will need to be sharp, and any cobwebs will cost us dearly, but I see the Buckeyes doing just enough to pull out a tough team win on the road.  The tribute to the 2002 team continues.  OSU: 21--PSU: 14
Schweinfurth: Man was last week a scare. The big news is that Miller should play.  All hands will be needed for this one.  Penn State has been very, very good despite the transfers.  Matt McGloin looks like a true starting QB with some upside under Bill O'Brien's offense.  The Lions have feasted on some of the worst teams in the B1G so far.  The OSU offense bounces back big in this one and the D stands tall. (I apologize for the uncommonly short analysis this week.  I should be back to full capacity next week).  OSU: 35--PSU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Washington over Oregon State
Auer: Arizona over USC
Hoying: Nebraska over Michigan
Schweinfurth: Michigan State over Wisconsin



Rankings post Week 8/Heisman ballots

Heisman ballots
Draper
1) Collin Klein (QB--KSU)
2) Manti Te'o (LB--ND)
3) Geno Smith (QB--WVU)

Hoying
1) Collin Klein (QB--KSU)
2) Manti Te'o (LB--ND)
3) A. J. McCarron (QB--Ala)

Schweinfurth
1) Collin Klein (QB--KSU)
2) Geno Smith (QB--WVU)
3) Braxton Miller (QB--OSU)
3) Manti Te'o (LB--ND)



Top 25

Draper
Philosophy:  I just feel like stating this as I'm really fighting with myself on how to rank these teams.  There are 2 main ranking philosophies 1) based on who would win at a hypothetical neutral site game and 2) based purely on resume.  At this point in the season, it's very difficult as we're still comparing apples to oranges.  I truly believe the best 2 teams in the country are Bama and Oregon, but their resumes are very lacking.  That will certainly change as more games are played, but for now, it's hard to compare these teams.  To submit my ballot, I will use the resume approach.  If the teams all finish undefeated, Bama and Oregon will rise to the top.
1) Kansas State
2) Florida
3) Bama
4) Oregon
5) Notre Dame
6) LSU
7) Oregon State
8) Oklahoma
9) USC
10) Florida State
11) Georgia
12) Ohio State
13) Texas Tech
14) Louisville
15) Rutgers
16) Mississippi State
17) Clemson
18) South Carolina
19) Texas A&M
20) Ohio
21) Stanford
22) Michigan
23) Wisconsin
24) Louisiana Tech
25) Boise State

Hoying
I rank on resume.  Teams that play great schedules are rewarded, but undefeated teams generally get the benefit of the doubt even if their schedule is weak.
1) Florida
2) Kansas State
3) Alabama
4) Oregon
5) Notre Dame
6) Oregon State
7) Ohio State
8) LSU
9) Mississippi State
10) Rutgers
11) Texas Tech
12) Florida State
13) Oklahoma
14) Louisville
15) Ohio
16) South Carolina
17) Georgia
18) Michigan
19) Clemson
20) USC
21) Louisiana Tech
22) Toledo
23) Texas A&M
24) Stanford
25) Nebraska

 Schweinfurth
1) Alabama
2) Florida
3) Oregon
4) Kansas State
5) Notre Dame
6) Oregon State
7) LSU
8) Oklahoma
9) Florida State
10) Clemson
11) USC
12) Ohio State
13) South Carolina
14) Mississippi State
15) Louisville
16) Rutgers
17) Stanford
18) Ohio
19) Boise State
20) Texas Tech
21) Texas
22) Penn State
23) Michigan
24) Texas A&M
25) West Virginia








 
 

Monday, October 22, 2012

Grading the Bucks--Purdue (yeesh)

Another near miss.  I'm stunned this team is undefeated.  Credit them for the 0 in the loss column, but if we keep playing with fire, we're going to get burned....

Offense: D+
I'll be honest, I would have gone much much lower were it not for the herculean effort by Kenny Guiton.  Yes, a backup at OSU should be able to beat Purdue, but the way he did it and the situation into which he was placed made it that much more special.  Let's be honest, this offense is about as bland as last year's...in a different way.  It seems to me that the only thing that we run is the zone read and screens.  Hyde seems to be a bruiser between the tackles, but we refuse to run I-formation up the gut.  I believe halftime had Hyde with over 50 yards on 7 carries.  That's over 7 yards a carry for you non-math people and he only got 7 CARRIES?!?  Braxton is electric, but play to your strengths...and this year, the O-line and Hyde are the bread and butter when Miller isn't there.  Obviously, his passes were completely out of sync all game, and his first and only play of any substance was the long run that ended in injury.  This is why Kenny G is so incredibly useful as a backup: he doesn't have the physical, raw talent of Braxton, but I believe he has stronger decision making skills.  It's very cliche, but the 'game manager' status of Guiton is underrated.  When Miller dropped out, there was very little drop off.  Yes, he threw a pick, but there was no residual effects as he led the game winning drive.  Give him credit for being a phenomenal leader and never giving up.

Defense: B
After the first play, the defense played pretty darn well.  Hankins completely ate up the middle of the line and the remainder of the line played very well.  I'd grade the secondary and linebackers as below average in terms of performance, but the effects (13 points given up) deserve the above average grade.  Let's also not forget the pick in the endzone that saved the day.  Perhaps this is somewhat of an over-correction to the crapfest in Bloomington, but 13 points given up by the D should be a gimme win with this offense.  The first play had Barnett WAY out of position leaving Klein on an island and the other TD drive was an embarrassment of not adjusting to the same bubble screen (although, we might not have the athletes healthy to cover that adequately). Other than that, they played well.  I love Roby, but I thought he had his worst game of the year.  With the patchwork secondary, the stars need to step up.  Think about this: our linebackers are good (Shazier), fullback (Boren), hurt freshman (Perry) and guy kicked off the team and reinstated (Klein).  With that lineup, I'll take 13 points given up any day.

Special Teams: D+
Blocked PAT may have been the difference, but let's not forget the missed FG and the kickoff return.  This is absolutely inexcusable.  Stay in your lanes and tackle soundly.  I'm very concerned if this game comes down to a FG as Basil hasn't seemed like the same guy.  Also, Meyer doesn't seem to have the same faith in Basil we've seen in the past.  The defense stepped up and the special teams and offense let us down.  Punts were ok.  Lost in all this has been the exception improvement in the kick return game.  Rod Smith has held on to the ball (!) and has been getting us starting field position around the 35 every time.  Give him big time credit for that.

Coaching: C
I don't understand the bland offense.  It's not Dave every play, but it's just as boring.  Where are the slants? Posts? Fades? I-formation? Mixing it up?  Nope, always shotgun--zone read or screen/bomb. Everyone says how exciting this team is to watch.  I don't see it.  Miller is big play machine, but it's not due to design; just talent.  The coaches need to step up and start to bring more creativity.  By the way, every time a WR motions into the backfield, it's ALWAYS a triple option.  Defensively, they're doing what they can, but scheme is a bit sit back and hope it works.  I think inventiveness is lacking as a staff and more needs to be shown to step up to the next level.

Overall: C