Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Week 17: Ducks N' Roses

Standings:

1.) Draper 47-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 46-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 45-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 42-23 (1-13 upset)

Well, the Committee did its job, slotting four chumps into the road Playoff spots, to be the sacrifices upon the gridiron altars of the premier temples of college footballdom. Now it's put-up or shut-up time for the top teams as we close in this year's 4-team Playoff core.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Fiesta Bowl: Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions vs. Boise State Broncos
Draper: This game is quite intriguing for the spread.  I truly believe that PSU is mid and Allar isn't the guy to lead them to the promised land.  Their defense is very good, especially against the run....but the Broncos have Jeanty which is off his Heisman snub.  Will he be able to put on a show against a top defense? He looked great against Oregon and the entire MWC, but the Lions will be a handful.  I do expect Jeanty to make some hay in this game, but the mismatch is on the other side.  PSU's rushing attack and the Tyler Warren getting the ball in creative ways from Andy Kolnicki will be enough to send Cinderella home in a surprisingly close game.  Franklin gets another 'big win' against a 'top 10' team.  PSU: 30--BSU:20
Hoying:
These teams strike me as very similar. No matter how many glow-ups Drew Allar gets, he never makes a difference game for the Lions. Penn State refers to rely on its running game, and while Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are more than competent, they're facing off against the nation's best RB and arguably best player, who's been nursing a chip on his shoulder since getting snubbed for the Heisman a month ago. Penn State's run defense is also a little softer than in years past, as both Oregon and a Josh Simmons-less Ohio State were able to find ample running room to salt those games away when needed. Boise State has faced a squishy-soft schedule, even by Mountain West standards, but Jeanty was able to run all over the Ducks in the Broncos' premier matchup of the season. Of course, as we saw a few weeks ago, Allen and Singleton were able to have the same success against Oregon on the ground. I think the question here is whether Penn State's edge on defense, which carried the day in an easy opening round cruise against SMU, can make up for Boise's one man wrecking crew in the backfield. I think it is, but by a closer margin than the experts think. PSU: 27--BSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Man Penn State has an "easy road" here. Could I see Ashton Jeanty running all over the Kitties? Yes, I can, but that defensive front 7 is downright nasty. As long as no one tells Big Game James this is a playoff game, they should be fine. Maybe the Broncos should wear Scarlet and Gray? PSU: 21--Boise: 7
Seeberg:  I had very little faith in the Lions despite their significant talent gap over SMU for one reason:  The bald man that roams their sidelines.  Even he couldn't derail that easy win, however.  Is Boise a step up?  I'm not sure, but they will have the best player on the field in should-have-won-the-Heisman Ashton Jeanty.  It's no secret what the Broncos want to do, and they've done it, even against big time competition as Jeanty went for nearly 300 yards of total offense against Oregon early this year- a game they only lost by a touchdown.  I don't expect the Boise D to hold up over four quarters against Penn State's superior size and skill.  The question is whether or not Penn State will be able to force Boise to be one-dimensional through the air on offense.  My guess is '"just enough" and the Nittanys pull away late.  PSU: 31--Boise: 20

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1

Peach Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Draper: On the other hand, I don't see this one being as close.  ASU stormed back to take the Big 12 after being left for dead early, but will the Skattebo heroics be enough to dethrone the Horns? I'm guessing no.  Texas has taken care of everyone not named Georgia this year, but I don't think they've been as dominant as advertised.  One area that Texas has excelled in is defense.  I expect them to bottle up the Sun Devil rushing attack and win a slugfest.  Athlete differential is too much.  UT: 31--ASU: 17
Hoying:
There is a fraud among the eight remaining teams in the inaugural 12-team College Football. No, not the Blue Turf Smurfs or the Sun Devils; those teams are who we thought they were. And it's not Georgia; they'll go as far as their fresh-faced backup QB will take them. It's the erstwhile Big 12 also-ran Texas Longhorns. Since Quinn Ewers took a curious step backwards in his third tour of duty in Austin, the Horns have been forced to increasingly rely on their defense. This approach darn near won them the SEC in their first go-around (similar to another Playoff team). But then they got a nice cushy home game against the lowest ranked team in the Playoff, and they gave up 412 yards to the Clemson Tigers of all teams. Yes, Clemson, the team that squeaked out an ACC championship, the kings of the conference that's been stepping on rake after rake after rake in this bowl season. For what it's worth, Arizona State is probably as bad as (or worse than) Clemson. They're largely dependent on star running back Cam Skattebo, though not quite to the extent of Boise. Regardless, I see this as largely playing out the same way as the Fiesta Bowl: stop the run and the big boy team wins; otherwise, look out, upset city. Here, as there, expect the favorite to survive for at least one more round. UT: 31--ASU: 23
Schweinfurth: Arizona State won the Big 12. Yay! The true rulers of the Big 12 are here now. The Longhorns did enough to beat a Clemson team last time out, but it was mostly under control. I could see the same this time out, but the Sun Devils are just out matched here. UT: 35--ASU: 14
Seeberg: The Sun Devils are, appropriately enough, hot.  Cruising to wins versus all the ranked adversaries the Big 12 could muster.  The Longhorns struggled, even defensively, against Clemson, which certainly raises an eyebrow or two.  The talent disparity is wider here, but Arizona State is legitimately playing really good ball right now.  However, I have to think that, not unlike PSU/Boise, the Texas defense is good enough to limit the Sun Devils' dynamic running back and force them to throw the ball more than they would like.  The Longhorns do just enough to get another ranked win to bolster their resume for 2025 (because we all know they do that whether they admit it or not).  UT: 27--ASU: 20

Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: This is a super interesting matchup.  UGA has been a dynasty for going on 4 years but they seem to be running on fumes.  The defense remains legit, but the QB play this year for the Dawgs has not been good enough. As we move on to Gunner Stockton, I don't think it's AS big of a dropoff as we first thought due to the time to prepare and the fact that Beck isn't great, but it will be tough to keep up.  Expect a LOT of running and punting as both defenses are very good.  I've believed in UGA all year even without a QB, but this might be one step too far.  Riley Leonard gives the Irish an edge at QB in both talent and experience.  Kirby will confuse him with some stout defenses, but it won't be enough (unless the stripes intervene).  Honestly, there is no outcome that would surprise me (close or blowout either way), but I'm picking the Irish to advance.  ND: 20--UGA: 17
Hoying:
What happens when a team that's relied heavily on its passing game all season suddenly loses its star QB? Would it help if I said they were facing the nation's top pass defense? The warning signs were there after the Dawgs got blasted in Oxford, and I fear that the dynasty may finally be over, or at least on hiatus. Yeah, Georgia didn't win the natty last year either (grrrrrrrrr) but I feel confident they would have capped off a threepeat if the 12-team field had been implemented just one season ahead of schedule (as long as they could avoid facing Bama again). But now Carson Beck is out of the picture, and the Bulldogs' hopes and dreams are resting on the arm of a QB with all of 20 attempts against FBS competition this season. And don't talk to me about Cardale Jones; the Dawgs don't have an Ezekiel Elliott to put the team on his back and carry them to the promised land. Riley Leonard isn't any prize either but Notre Dame isn't a pass-first team. The Irish choke out their opponents and do their damage on the ground. The D pitched a gem against this year's upstart wonder team, Indiana, and the game was largely over by the time Jeremiyah Love broke free for a 98 yard run. Georgia's D is good enough to keep them in this one, and a nice cocktail of turnovers and tackles for loss could even brew up a victory for the Dawgs, but this is the moment Marcus Freeman has been pushing toward ever since Ryan Day ended his first season before it began. The Irish aren't going home just yet. ND: 24--UGA: 17
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame looked the part against the Hoosiers. The D was downright nasty and the offense did just enough against a physical Indiana front. Georgia has had some time to get healthy, but they are breaking in a new QB and there are a lot of questions around the Bulldogs team. This nightcap should be a defensive beatdown by both teams. May the best defense win. ND: 17--UGA: 14
Seeberg: The line for this one is nearly down to a pick 'em.  However, the Bulldogs are still favored, which is baffling to me.  Notre Dame has been a juggernaut in the back half of the season, albeit against a mediocre schedule.  Still, they appear to be peaking at the proper time, unlike Cooper's squads that typically peaked in late September.  Georgia, meanwhile, is mediocre at protecting the ball (55th in turnover margin) and ND is elite (3rd).  Toss in a backup QB with minimal experience for good measure, and it's just not a recipe that seems to favor the dogs.  The golden domers get one step closer to the golden lipstick trophy. ND: 20--UGA: 13

Rose Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks
Draper: Which team enters Pasadena? The fast and loose squad that looked great in Eugene (on offense) and dismantled the Vols or the tight amateurs that pooped all over the field on Nov. 30? If you look at it closely, the Bucks have the advantage at nearly every position matchup.  It comes down to 2 major points: 1) do the Bucks come out on offense with the killer instinct and take the fight to the Ducks on offense? and 2) Can the defense limit the explosive plays of the Ducks?  My guess is 1) yes and 2) maybe.  The Oregon wide receivers are very good, but I don't expect Burke to get punked as badly as he did in October.  Knowles and the Bullets haven't given up a passing TD since the last meeting and that includes games vs. 3 other playoff teams.  The line play on both sides will be key.  Both teams felt that they got the raw end of the luck battle last time (Oregon: missed int call on first drive/spitting ejection and OSU: bad turnover luck on fumble/stupid lucky onside kick/BS OPI on Smith), but I'd say the 'bad luck' was more heavily in Scarlet and Gray.  If that evens out and there's no home field advantage, I'd say things break for the good guys.  Buckeyes don't end the season on Jan 1 and advance to the semis on the back of Will Howard, a surprising Oline competent performance (anyone expect that vs. Tennessee?), and a bend don't break defense that does just enough.  OSU: 34--Ore: 24
Hoying:
Boy, it sure feels like 2014, doesn't it? No, not just because the Buckeyes are playing Oregon in the Playoff. Rather, we've seen a frustrating loss against a craptastic opponent, the Bucks have secured a rare win over an opponent from the almighty SEC, and, once again, it feels like the true national championship is being played before the scheduled main event. I wasn't sure who would win the 2015 Sugar Bowl between Ohio State and Alabama, but I was pretty confident that whoever survived was going to wipe the floor with the winner of Oregon/Florida State. I'm getting the same sense this season. Texas is a fraud, Georgia is the most vulnerable it's been since lockdown, Notre Dame hasn't been championship caliber since the days of Ryan Day's archnemesis, and we've already seen both of these teams handle Penn State. OK, but if we're going to write off Penn State, shouldn't Ohio State suffer the same fate? After all, the Bucks have lost to the Ducks already, and that was with Jordan Burch missing from Oregon's D-line and Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin both present for OSU. Why should we expect a different result now? Well, as I said last week, Knowles took the Oregon loss personally, and the Silver Bullets have looked as good as I've ever seen them in the weeks since. It appears Chip had a similar reaction to getting stonewalled by Michigan, as the Buckeye juggernaut was back in full force against a very stingy Tennessee defense. After seeing what Penn State was able to do against the Ducks after getting completely stonewalled against the post-Oregon Buckeye defense, I have confidence in the Buckeyes' ability to have success similar to their first outing. That puts the game squarely in the hands of Knowles and the Bullets. Led by Jack Sawyer's efforts, the Buckeyes returned their entire starting defense from 2023 (minus the mediocre linebackers) and added the nation's best defensive player in Caleb Downs. The time to deliver is now or never. The first time these teams met, Dan Lanning had to dig into his bag of tricks to get more scoring opportunities, throwing deep for the first time in Dillon Gabriel's Oregon career and stealing possessions via a quasi-onside kick and a Quinshon Judkins fumble. The gloves are off now. It's strength on strength. Outside the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, with a hungry defense only getting better week to week and hell-bent on revenge, I think the Buckeyes can get it done. It won't be easy, and there won't be any time to relax after clearing this highest of hurdles, but everyone's preseason championship darling finally shows what a $20MM roster and a $10MM coach can do at peak performance. OSU: 28--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: THAT Buckeyes team is unstoppable and Ohio State owes Oregon one here. Between all the weirdness of the game in Eugene and the messed up end of the game, this feels personal. Denzel Burke has even said as much. The Bucks HAVE to get home on defense. Part of the reason Burke got torched was the lack of pressure on Gabriel. The D line has looked much more aggressive and the blitz packages have been beautiful. Oregon saw a shell of what is coming on Wednesday. Judkins isn't going to have a bum hand and have the ball ripped out again. The special teams won't be caught by surprise with an onside kick. Dan Lanning can't exploit a rulebook loophole this time. Bucks win and put the beating on the Ducks they should have gotten in October. This one feels personal. OSU: 35--UO: 21
Seeberg: To be perfectly honest, I do like that this iteration of the Buckeyes gets another shot at the Ducks to right October's wrongs.  However, I'm not too happy that it's in the bleeping quarterfinals.  The winner will be a significant favorite to win it all, and that's a lot of pressure.  But first things first.  What needs to happen here?  A complete game like the Bucks played against the Vols and there isn't a team in the country that can hang with the scarlet and gray for four quarters, not even the vaunted Ducks.  Expecting another near-perfect performance is maybe a bit much.  The Bucks got home with just 4 linemen a LOT against Tennessee, but we saw how well that (didn't) work in Autzen.  Knowles & Co. will need to cook up some exotic looks and unique blitzes to rattle Gabriel, who was on point back in October.  Speaking of on point, Will Howard looked excellent too, save for a poorly timed slide.  There's no reason to believe he can't replicate that performance.  The O-line struggled to adapt on the fly, however, with the loss of Josh Simmons early in that game, and the run game suffered.  But now the line has been reasonably reshuffled and has gained reps and confidence.  The run game needs to be just serviceable enough, and the game plan needs to mirror Tennessee's:  PASS to set up the RUN, not the other way around.  The tempo was a nice touch, too.  Smith and Egbuka need at LEAST 20 targets combined.  Moving JJ around was a nice touch in the Vols' game as well.  These are all things that, I believe, the OSU coaching staff and players are capable of.  It will come down to the coaches not overthinking/getting conservative, and the players to execute.  Oh, and those sweet Rose Bowl helmet stripes are undefeated, figuratively and literally.  Let's keep it that way, and Let's Go Bucks!  OSU: 35--UO: 25