Week 7: Watching the World Burn

Standings:

1.) Draper 23-6 (0-6 upset)
2.) Hoying 22-7 (2-4 upset)
3.) Seeberg 20-9 (0-6 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 19-10 (1-5 upset)

By the time the clock strikes midnight on Saturday night, the college football landscape will look far different than it does today. Title hopes will be ruined. Pecking orders will be pecked out. And the Buckeyes have the luxury of sitting back and watching the top teams around them take the L's that will send them tumbling from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: This is truly an interesting matchup as the Wolverines have passed the gauntlet of garbage (ok...Maryland is decent) with no true problem but have shown chinks in the armor at times.  My assessment of the team is that Corum is a stud, McCarthy has some potential but is still raw, and the defense is a shell of last year's squad.  Penn State might have (probably has?) the biggest win by shellacking Auburn in Jordan-Hare.  Now, Auburn is nothing to get excited about (I think Maryland might be better), but winning on the road in that fashion is impressive.  Sean Clifford enters his 30th year as the PSU QB with a boatload of meh and a few eye-popping stellar games.  Can he pull one together in Ann Arbor this weekend? Probably not....but that doesn't mean the Lions are cooked.  I expect a boring rushing battle between the two with Corum vs. Patterson looking for the breakaway score.  As stated above, I think Corum is solid, so I'll go with the maize and blue at home.  PSU: 20--UM: 24
Hoying: Modern football is largely a quarterback-driven game. And, for what feels like the millionth year in a row, Penn State has a hyped-up mediocre player behind center. Sure, Michigan QB J J McCarthy isn't exactly a proven product either, but he seems to have shown a high ceiling against the garbage he's faced so far, and he has the much, much better rushing attack backing him up. There's been a lot of buzz about Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton, but outside of a couple of explosive runs, he hasn't held a candle to Corum. Add in the home factor and the James Franklin play-calling factor, and it appears that the paper tiger undefeated team in the Big Ten this year is...the Nittany Lions. Blowing out Auburn isn't enough to convince me otherwise (but does it qualify them to be ranked #1?). Michigan remains on pace for a 2006-esque showdown in Columbus, against a 2006-esque runaway Heisman trophy winner [note: offer expires after regular season]. PSU: 17--UM: 27
Schweinfurth: I really don't know what to think of either of these teams. Neither team has a beaten up on overmatched teams so far and the strengths of schedule are just awful. Penn State still has Kyle Clifford at QB, and that may be just enough to swing this to Michigan's favor. PSU: 21--UM: 24
Seeberg: I just...I just don't know what to make of these teams this year.  They're undefeated.  Yay?  Penn State escaped a conference opener against Purdue (who, granted, plays everybody close at least) and stomped a listless, lame-duck-coached Auburn team.  UM beat...(buffering).  I fear these might just be two more fake-good teams that have been fortunate to remain unscathed due to lousier opponents.  Astonishingly, the primary difference may be Harbaugh's QB.  I think the maize and blue are just a little bit more diverse offensively.  If it were a white out I would likely lean the other way, but Clifford is good for at least 1-2 disastrous plays and that should be enough to seal it for the home team.  UM late.  PSU: 20--UM: 27

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Will Bryce play? That seems to be all anyone wants to talk about.  Milroe is a nice fill in and will be good down the road, but he was a little shaky last week vs. the Aggies.  Tennessee has been lighting the scoreboard up with everyone's Heisman runner-up favorite, Hendon Hooker.  When I look back at Bama losses in the regular season, they don't seem to lose these marquee matchups very often.  Saban's defense isn't the juggernaut from the past couple (ten?) years, but it's still full of elite athletes that I don't think the Vols have seen this year.  If I'm the Tide, I come out with the ground and pound to physically beat up Tennessee (both offensively and defensively) and impose my will while taking the air out of the ball.  Rocky Top hasn't been this fired up for a game since Kiffin came to town last year, but they truly truly believe this is the one.  I just can't buy it.  The Evil Empire doesn't allow failure.  Bama: 30--UT: 24
Hoying: Speaking of quarterback-driven games, how is Bryce Young doing these days? Because if he's not at 100%, the Tide might be in trouble for the first time since...ok, well, the national championship wasn't that long ago but you have to go back a lot farther to find another game with Alabama facing such adversity. The Volunteer attack has been a buzzsaw so far this season, with QB Hendon Hooker following up last year's breakout season with this year's best QB-INT ratio (10:0) and leading the nation's #2 scoring attack (behind a certain team on a bye this week). And they're going to need it, because even if Bryce Young doesn't play, the Vols aren't stopping anybody this year, particularly through the air. True, the Tide needed long runs, not receptions, from RB Jahmyr Gibbs to stave off a furious Razorback comeback when Young went down, but I wouldn't trust the Tennessee secondary against Jalen Milroe, even if the complement of WRs isn't quite what we've come to expect from Alabama over the last few seasons. This game reminds me a lot of the 2020 Ole Miss - Alabama game, when Lane Kiffin threw everything in the bag at the Tide in a mad shootout. Tennessee's defense isn't quite as bad as the Rebels' was on that day, and their offense is a bit better. Also, if you remember (how could you forget), that 2020 Alabama team was one of the greatest in modern memory, while this year's has been playing with fire for too long. Their inconsistency is going to catch up with them at some point this season, and there's no time like the present, especially for the long-suffering orange and white faithful. Saban suffers his first loss at the hands of his lesser rival and the Vols set up an even bigger matchup against Georgia on November 5. Bama: 38--Tenn: 41
Schweinfurth: Be wary of the years where everyone says Bama is gettable. For some reason, Saban has those teams turn into death machines in games like this. Will Bryce Young play? This game is the next big leap for Tennessee. Hendon Hooker is the real deal, but I'm not sure the depth is there for the Vols quite yet. Bama wins, but it's close. Bama: 34--Tenn: 31
Seeberg: The experts can break this game down all they want, but it will likely rest on the shoulder(s) of Bryce Young.  Does he play?  Is he 80%?  95%?  Lord and Nick Saban only know.  To be fair, he isn't suiting up on defense which might be where the Tide struggle.  A W in this game vaults Hendon Hooker into legitimate, Stroudian territory when it comes to the Heisman conversation.  Will Anderson might get to him, but he can't cover the receivers too.  I expect a fun one in Neyland, and a "well Bryce Young didn't play/wasn't 100%" narrative to start immediately thereafter to get Bama back in the CFP down the road.  Bama: 31--Tenn: 37

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: TCU is riding high after their big GameDay win over <checks notes> Kansas? These may not be your parents Jayhawks, but I was surprised TCU didn't impose their will a bit more.  I think the reason was...they can't.  Max Duggan is orchestrating a nice offense against chump teams like Oklahoma, but the Pokes pass rush should be able to get home.  Sanders remains (in my humble opinion) the best QB on the field in this game (with all due respect to the mullet).  While the Frogs expect to get out fast, I think OSU plays a little reverse card and gets a quick stop or two followed by TDs to quiet the crowd.  It all comes down to whether Duggan has time to survey and/or run, and I don't think he gets it.  OkSt: 31--TCU: 20
Hoying: Poor Oklahoma State. They've done so well under Mike Gundy, and yet they never seem to be able to climb the summit as kings of the Big 12. Yeah, 2011 was nice (except for getting screwed out of the BCS Championship), but that was over a decade ago, and last year's loss by inches to the Baylor Bears has made the drought even more excruciating. And the road is not getting any easier this year, as the conference slate is a real murderer's row (except Oklahoma?), but the Pokes have bought themselves a bit of breathing room as one of only three teams left undefeated in conference play. This weekend provides a great opportunity to knock off one of the others. TCU, fresh off their turn as villain of the week after knocking off America's darling Kansas Jayhawks, feature one of the top offenses in the country, with great balance on the ground and through the air. And that's bad news for Oklahoma State, as Jim Knowles isn't around to regroup the defense after a somewhat rocky start to the season. Both teams should have success through the air, but TCU's better running game and slightly better defense should get the job done at home and solidify purple power atop the Big 12 standings. OkSt: 31--TCU: 38
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma State can't defend the pass. Yea, they can score, but they will need a stop to have a chance in this shoot out. TCU should win going away. OkSt.: 35--TCU: 45
Seeberg: Don't look now kids, but the bellcow program in the Sooner state isn't the Sooners.  Unfortunately, a better team in TCU has a date with the Cowboys this Saturday.  Last season I would've trusted a Jim Knowles-led D to outlast a solid TCU squad, but the remnants of his defense just aren't cutting it this year, allowing a whopping 44 points to Central Michigan in the opener and 31 to Texas Tech just last week.  TCU is too multiple on offense to not take advantage of the Cowboys' shortcomings on that side of the ball and should pull away late.  OkSt: 24--TCU: 41

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Syracuse Orange

Draper: Everyone keeps asking if Syracuse is good; however, the better question may be, are either of these teams good? NC State has literally been gifted two wins from the Noles and the Pirates, but they 'find a way' (except against Clemson and that rousing 'bus around the stadium....whee).  Syracuse has beaten....no one.  I guess the last second win against Purdue was nice, but I'm not breaking the bank on Wagner.  Experience against a decent team matters here.  Go Pack.  NCSU: 30--Syr: 17
Hoying: Is Syracuse actually good? Well, they're 5-0, but it's taken a miraculous late comeback against Purdue and 5 field goals against Virginia, a team everyone else with a pulse has been blowing out, to get them here. NC State is a bit more of a known quantity: they aren't going to score but you're aren't going to, either. Clemson was able to make a bit of noise against the Wolfpack, aided by a couple of costly NC State turnovers, but everyone else has been pretty bottled up. Yes, it took a boneheaded late play to sneak by Florida State, but I'm not sure the Orange are even up to the Seminoles' level this season. I'm still not a big believer in NC State, but I think they'll do well enough to knock another unbeaten off their perch at the season's halfway point. NCSU: 20--Syr: 17
Schweinfurth: NC State should bounce back here. The Wolfpack seem to be the better team and I don't know what to think of the Orange. NCSU: 35--Syr: 21
Seeberg: Another matchup of "are they really good?" squads.  The Wolfpack went down in a heap to a resurgent, probably-actually-good Clemson team and the Orange have played Purdue...and that's it.  And they needed a LOT of fortune to escape that contest on the positive side of the scoreboard.  NC State knocks another from the ranks of the unbeaten.  NCSU: 31--Syr: 23

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: I know we all had this one circled as the powerhouse B1G West showdown.  Honestly, after watching the 'thrilling' Illinois/Iowa game last week, I don't know how I could pick Illinois to beat a high school squad.  Yeah, they keep winning these defensive battles, but it's not something I really want to subject myself to.  Bert can Bert, but Minnesota has looked pretty good outside of last week.  Ibrahim and Morgan should be enough to outscore the Illini in a shootout. Minn: 20--Ill: 9
Hoying: Finally, the one you've been waiting for. The Big Ten West has been quite a mess this season. You'd be tempted to call them a bit of a punching bag, except they have the exact same conference record as the East thanks to bottom-dwellers Rutgers and Michigan State. Another one of those awful East teams is Indiana, who has perhaps the most inexplicable win of the Big Ten season so far, knocking off Illinois back in September thanks to 3 Illini fumbles and some costly fourth down misses. Of course, Minnesota's record isn't spotless either as their last outing was a pretty solid humbling by Purdue. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but this one may ride on the health of a starting QB. It's not like Tommy DeVito has been lighting the world on fire for Illinois, but you really don't want to riding into battle with Art Sitkowski at the head of your troops. Yeah, Tanner Morgan wasn't anything special against Purdue either, but he's been much better than anyone Illinois has trotted out over the season as a whole. That should be enough to overcome a resurgent Illinois defense. Bert takes his first loss to the Golden Gophers. Minn: 24--Ill: 16
Schweinfurth: Minnesota is a pretty good team when Mo Ibrahim plays. We saw it last year. Illinois is getting love because they held Iowa under 7 points (and who hasn't at this point). Goldy should win this and get back on track to represent the B1G West.  Minn: 21--Ill: 12
Seeberg:  Ah yes, the B1G West matchup we all had circled at the start of the season.  To be fair, the Gophers have been very good the last 2 seasons...when Mo Ibrahim plays.  This is the poor man's version of Bama/UT where knowing if the best player plays and how healthy he is means darn near everything.  The Illini, meanwhile, out Iowa'd Iowa (3 FGs to 2) and out-Wisconsin'd Wisconsin (the Badgers had literally just TWO rushing yards).  I'm not sure, however, if Bert has the horses to out Minnesota Minnesota.  Gophers force the Illini to throw it and, well, they just can't.  Minn: 23--Ill: 13

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Clemson (I know it's a wiener pick but GO NOLES!)
Hoying: Georgia Southern over James Madison
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Miss St.
Seeberg:  Iowa State over Texas

Week 6: Thermopylae

Standings:

1.) Draper 20-4 (0-5 upset)
2.) Hoying 18-6 (2-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (0-5 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 15-9 (1-4 upset)

In 480 BC, 300 hopeless outnumbered Spartan hoplites and their scant allies faced off against a far superior invading Persian force. The Spartans fought to the last man but were ultimately slaughtered by the visitors. When CJ Stroud's bombs blot out the sun, MSU will be left to aspire to their usual pitiful 27 points per game in the shade. On Saturday, Mel Tucker dines in hell.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: Kansas is the feel good story of 2022.  Bringing GameDay to Lawrence for the first time leaving only 6 Power 5 programs to yet host the flagship's CFB pregame show (can you name them?) is truly awesome. Unfortunately, they have been living on the razor's edge.  They are MILES better than they have been in the past 12 years, but I think mediocrity looks like ultimate power when you've been a doormat for so long.  Jalon Daniels has been pretty good, but the numbers are hiding some close calls.  TCU, on the other hand, may have a little contender in them.  The Frogs led by Max Duggan are a real Big 12 contender and potential playoff buster.  While the stomping of OU was fun, this game puts them on a likely collision course with the Longhorns for a Big 12 title. Frogs spoil the GameDay debute.  TCU: 38--KU: 21
Hoying: Once I rose above the noise and confusion, just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion. I was soaring ever higher. But I flew too high...It's been a great run, Jayhawks, but you've been feasting on the dregs for too long. Your defense isn't great, and your offense failed to launch against the only stout defense you've faced this year (Iowa State). You can't rely on the other team to miss three field goals on the way to 3-point wins and hope to stay undefeated for long. The Horned Frogs, on the other hand, are a puzzlingly flat second half against SMU away from looking like a serious contender this season, dominating perennial Big 12 bugaboo Oklahoma on both sides of the ball last week. Therein lies the only hope for the Jayhawks in this game. Can TCU really get up to give their best effort against Kansas after such an exhilarating victory? Maybe not, but even a C+ effort should get it done, even on the road, against what is frankly a bit of a mirage. It's been fun, Kansas. Get over that bowl eligibility hump another week. TCU: 41--KU: 24
Schweinfurth: Kansas is such a great story to start this year. They have one of the top offenses in the country and have gone from also ran to the top of the Big 12. Unfortunately, they have to play a team that is just as hot and coming off a huge win against the Sooners. This will probably be the most entertaining game of the weekend and have tons of scoring. I just think TCU gets the one defensive stop needed to jump ahead. TCU: 45--KU: 42
Seeberg: Ah yes, just where we thought gameday would be this week when the season started.  Right?  RIGHT?  In any event, the football Jayhawks are undefeated and TCU is riding high after demolishing Oklahoma last week.  Kansas enjoys shootouts but actually won a defensive slog against Iowa State last week.  TCU, however, can score it too and likely has just a little too much talent for Kansas to remain unbeaten.  It should be competitive, though, as Lance continues upping the ante (and his next paycheck) guiding the 'Hawks.  TCU: 42--KU: 34

Tennessee Volunteers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Tennessee is the flavor of the month in the SEC, but both these teams seem to be rising a liiiittttttle too fast.  Hendon Hooker has put together some nice games, but I don't know if UT is really back to top level wuite yet.  Lucky for them, LSU isn't either. My text before the polls came out was "they're putting LSU over FSU aren't they".  The prophecy of SEC bias was fulfilled.  I'm honestly a little conflicted in this game because I'm not sold on the Vols ability to go into Death Valley and win, even with the talent disparity in their favor. A noon kickoff is just what the doctor ordered for Josh Heupel, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say the home crowd and the Tigah FAMuhlee reminds UT that they aren't back yet (and perpetuates the SEC strength via circular arguments).  Note: neither of these teams is good, but the narrative (regardless of the winner) will be that these are both 'serious' contenders in the SEC and beyond.  UT: 30--LSU: 31
Hoying: Really? We're putting LSU back in the top 25? To be honest, I haven't watched them much since their all-timer late game chili spill against Florida State but I do know that they did a whole lot of nothing last week except stand back and let Auburn collapse on their own. With Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Arkansas coming up in the next few weeks, I expect that reality is going to set in very quickly for the Tigers, and it's going to start against the only team whose rise this year can rival Kansas's in improbability. Yes, I know the experts were expecting Tennessee to actually be good this time, and yes, I know Hendon Hooker was a known quantity in August when everyone was salivating over this offense, but when Florida was leading deep into the first half in Knoxville I found myself wondering "Oh Tennessee, will there ever be a rainbow?" But I'll be darned if they don't look like the class of the East and maybe even the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC this season. Vols continue to roll and set up the game of the first half of the season against the Tide next week in Knoxville. UT: 31--LSU: 23

Schweinfurth: Hendon Hooker is playing out of his mind thus far and the Vol's offense is putting up ridiculous numbers. In my mind, LSU is rebuilding. Tennessee is well rested of the bye week and should win comfortably. The big question I have is, will Bryan Kelly's face turn the same shade of purple as his shirt? Tenn: 35--LSU: 20
Seeberg: Say what you will about Bryan Kelly, but he can coach it.  In a rebuilding year he has the Tigers ranked.  The Vols, meanwhile, are threatening to climb into legitimacy again.  I'm not convinced the Florida win is one to hang their hat on (they barely hung on, at home) but that program has OWNED the orange for nearly two decades so any win over that program is a big one.  Death Valley will keep it close, but Hooker is just a bit too good for Kelly and Co.  UT: 27--LSU: 20

Utah Utes @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: I went to the Utes game last week in Salt Lake and was surprised at the 'meh' I felt watching the game. Cam Rising is a fine midtier QB, but I wasn't stunned. The Utah defense forced Oregon State into 4 turnovers (2 handed on a silver platter), but that 'blowout win' was a one score game going into the 4th.  UCLA is rebounding off a big win over the Huskies with an extra day to prep, but I think the defensive talent is a little stronger for the Utes.  Also, Utah has been catching teams off of big games (the close loss to USC seemed to affect the Beavs).  I'll go with two Utes to be the difference.  Clark Phillips and Cam Rising keep Utah on a collision course with SC for the Pac 12.  UU: 31--UCLA: 23
Hoying: Amazing how one play can affect the complexion of a season. If Cam Rising eats the ball instead of throwing a pick in the end zone at the end of the Florida game, there's a good chance the preseason #7 Utes are in the driver's seat for a playoff spot and a trendy pick to make some noise once they're there. Now they're stuck looking up at the future Big Ten legends leading the Pac-#TBD. Fortunately, with two big wins this week and next week, the Utes are right back in the Playoff discussion. Then again, it's not like UCLA is an easy mark. Just ask the erstwhile solid-looking Huskies, who were unable to brave the 20,000 hostile fans and escape LA with a victory. I still think the Bruins, and the Pac-12 in general, are for real this year, but Utah is too sound to let this one slip. Bring on the Trojans in Salt Lake City. UU: 31--UCLA: 27
Schweinfurth: I have no back up on this pick, but I'm gonna roll with Utah. They have looked like an experienced team and I'm not sold on the Chip Kelly rebuild yet. UU: 42--UCLA: 35
Seeberg: Well, like most years I struggle to determine what's happening west of the Rockies.  The Bruins looked darn good beating a respectable Husky squad last week and, therefore, are primed for a downfall.  If Oregon drops a game too the Pac-12 10 may have to borrow the ACC Wheel of Destiny to see who's going to play in their title game.  Utes late.  UU: 38--UCLA: 34

Florida State Seminoles @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: My beloved Noles are definitely improving.  A solid 4-0 record and a reasonably close loss to a ranked Wake team at home with a bevy of missed penalties.  However, the improved FSU squad still is a work in progress.  Their best hope is that NCState through everything they had against Clemson last week in a losing effort and are too deflated to show up.  I just don't think that's the case.  I'm extremely proud the the Noles aren't a complete and utter embarrassment this year and the future looks bright, but I don't think the have the horses to steal this one on the road.  FSU can absolutely win this game, but teh odds aren't in their favor.  FSU: 14--NCSt: 24
Hoying: So it appears that NC State is not the class of the ACC, same as, well, ever. We'll have to wait for Syracuse's visit to Death Valley to see who really runs the Atlantic division, but in the meantime we can have a couple of also-rans jockey for 2nd place. The NC State defense did a passable job holding a somewhat resurgent Clemson offense in check last week. A similar effort would be more than enough to bottle up the Noles, who had trouble breaking through a Wake Forest defense that's been less than impressive this season. Florida State seems to be back to competent, but not back to good, just yet. FSU: 17--NCSt: 27
Schweinfurth: NC State got humbled a little bit last week, but they should bunce back. The offense put up a good amount of points against a very good Clemson D. I'll double down on the Wolfpack, but I will probably regret it again. FSU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg: Well, NC State still can't win the big game, we've known that for decades.  The question is...is this a big game?  The Seminoles had some moment this year before being stopped by Wake Forest last week.  They're still a bigger program than the Wolfpack, but in name only.  It might very well go the other way, but let's see if the Wolfpack can manage a moderately sized win.  FSU: 24--NCSU: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: The Green and White (quite a...sight?) congregate in East Lansing, donning the helmets of the conquering heroes of 1998 to take out the Buckeyes.  Unfortunately for them, I just don't think a throwback helmet and a mediocre coach with a $95 million buyout are going to be enough.  While upsets occur all the time (or near upsets...see UGA/Mizzou), I simply don't see the path in this one. Let's not forget that a SIGNIFICANTLY better MSU team came to Columbus last year and was bent over to the tune of 49 1st half points. Peyton Thorne is a mid-tier QB with few to no weapons and the MSU defense hasn't been able to stop a paper bag.  Stroud should feast.  I'd like to see JSN get some time, but I won't be surprised if he takes another week off before the bye.  The real point that needs to be made is to pump up Mr. Miyan Williams.  Every day I see more news about Henderson's return...should he return to the starting role? I'm not convinced.  Williams has been a phenomenal runner and I don't know if I'd rush to replace him.  Give the man some love.  Stroud throws for 4, Williams runs for 2, and the Buckeye defense keeps it dialed in.  The coaches will be quite focused on how the Bucks handle the road, but I think they pass with flying colors.  OSU: 51--MSU: 17
Hoying: Yes, Sparty is the traditional ruiner of great Buckeye seasons. But the days of a mediocre Spartan team kneecapping the Buckeyes are becoming rarer and rarer. Put 2013 and 2015 out of your head: one of those MSU squads went to the Playoff and the other would've gone had the Playoff existed one year earlier. At this point we have to go all the way back to 1998 to see the Buckeyes get pantsed by a less-than-elite Spartan group. I don't see this as a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung, and Michigan State's problem is that they aren't good at anything. Especially glaring is pass defense, which should be a big scarlet flag for anyone who watched last year's air show. Yes, Stroud wasn't putting up numbers last week, but it's not like Rutgers cracked the code for how to stop the Ohio State passing game. The Scarlet Knights committed 3 defensive holding penalties and 3 defensive pass interferences. Amazing how the passing game suffers when your receivers aren't free to run. OSU scored on each of those drives on which the secondary committed a penalty, so I guess Rutgers did provide the blueprint for how to get blown out while making Stroud's numbers look pedestrian. The Buckeyes have a total of one trap game this season, and it's the visit to the Koopa Kids before you-know-who comes to town. Everything else is either Penn State or blowout alert. OSU: 45--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: The Spartans are going to wear 1998 style helmets. Let that sink in. The Spartans are so desperate for anything in this game, that they are going to roll out stylized helmets circa one of their biggest upset wins. The truth is, that secondary is poo. I can see Harrison, Egbuka, JSN (if he plays), and company putting up TONS of yards. Even if the Spartans drop 8, Williams and Henderson are going to feast. I really want to see the secondary step up this week and make some plays. Thorne is going to have to throw a ton to keep the Spartans in the game. Bucks should win this BIG. OSU: 45--MSU: 14
Seeberg:  OK, first road trip of the year, a place Ryan Day has literally not even coached yet.  Team we thought would be decent at the start of the year that's now desperate to save a middling season.  Lots of pieces of the puzzle for a closer-than-it-should-be game, especially from a team that's taken a lot from us over the years.  That said, however, MSU has taken the bold decision to wear helmets from 1998, you know, when Sparty derailed a national title worthy Ohio State squad.  Hell, Cooper even beat UM that season.  Take note, Day and Co. and another 49-0 halftime score might happen.  Hard to think that will be the case again, but it shouldn't be close for long.  OSU: 52--MSU: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Washington State over USC
Hoying: Texas Tech over Oklahoma State
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Mississippi St.
Seeberg:  Arizona over Oregon

Week 5: From Coast to Coast to Coast

Standings:

1.) Draper 17-3 (0-4 upset)
2.) Hoying 16-4 (1-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (1-3 upset)
3.) Seeberg 14-6 (0-4 upset)

The ranks of the undefeated continue to dwindle as the Playoff picture continues to take shape. Just kidding, it's going to be Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and the yearly rotating hapless sacrificial team. But since we have to play out the farce, this week we travel from Atlantic to Pacific (gee, the football is terrific) and down to Dixie's sunny shore on the Gulf Coast, where three pairs of teams put their perfect records on the line to chase the Big Three.

FRIDAY

Washington Huskies @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: A nice little battle of unbeatens to start the weekend.  Washington has surprised with a win over underwhelming MSU, but a win is a win and Michael Penix has the Huskies making a little noise in the Pac12.  While I (like the rest of the world) have watched very little Pac12 football, this could be a fun back and forth game with Chip Kelly turning the knobs on the Bruins sideline.  In a matchup of fairly even teams, I tend to lean on the home field advantage.  After seeing the 'packed houses' the Bruins have been trotting out in the Rose Bowl, the advantage should go to UW.  Penix shows that B1G castoffs thrive in other conferences (see Joe Burrow).  UW: 37--UCLA: 27 
Hoying: Is the Chip Kelly experiment finally working in Los Angeles? For the first time in 5 years, the Bruins have started the season 4-0. Yeah, they played a Michigan-esque schedule to get there (not a coincidence: both these schedules suck because Michigan decided to dodge a home-and-home with UCLA starting this season), but better to beat bad teams than lose to them (just ask Texas A&M and Miami). Their purple opponents have already made one appearance on Let's Go Bucks! during this short season on their way to throttling Michigan State, who, newsflash, might not be any good either. But the Huskies have won comfortably in each of their 4 matchups so far this year behind the nation's most prolific pass offense. UCLA has been fine on pass D but they haven't seen anything like what the Huskies are cooking up behind Michael Penix & friends. USC will get their monster matchup later this season, but it'll be in Vegas, not in Los Angeles. UW: 37--UCLA: 31
Schweinfurth: This should be a fun late Friday night tussle. Just for kicks, I pulled up some of the season stats and these two teams are the same. Almost the same average score, same total yards, same points allowed, same yards allowed. This could be a full on offensive onslaught as both teams average over 40 points a game. Washington, to this point, has played the tougher schedule and Michael Penix, Jr. is off to a great start. It just all seems to be in alignment for the Huskies this year. UW: 42--UCLA: 38
Seeberg: Well look at that, UCLA is undefeated!  That record includes a miraculous escape against South Alabama.  Take away the cardinal direction and that would be impressive.  With it?  Not so much.  Nearing South Central Louisiana State territory (I'll take a Scotch and water, hold the Scotch).  Regardless, Wash U comes to town and will enjoy playing in front of dozens of people I'm sure.  Penix has not been sacked yet this season.  That's key not only for his effectiveness but also to keep his injury-prone self upright and available week by week.  The Bruins may get him on the ground, but my guess is it won't be often enough.  Huskies keep rolling.  UW: 41--UCLA: 27

SATURDAY

North Carolina State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers

Draper: Both of these teams have been fighting the 'are they reeeeally any good?' tag all year.  Clemson was the supposed #4 team, but has struggled of late while preseason hopes abounded in Raleigh to almost be silenced in week 1.  I really don't know how this one shakes out as I don't trust either team.  I'm pretty confident that the best unit in the game is the Clemson defense and a big game in Death Valley is a tall order no matter the Tigers' strength.  Gut tells me to lean on those that have been there before.  Clemson pulls out a close win before facing the ACC Atlantic juggernaut in FSU.  NCSU: 17--Clem: 20
Hoying: Across the college football landscape, the quality teams are concentrated in three divisions: the Big Ten East, the SEC...East? (no, really), and the ACC Atlantic. It seems like every week the Clemson Tigers are forced to prove themselves worthy of a return to the Playoff path by beating some undefeated upstart trying to deny them the Atlantic crown for the second consecutive season. After last week's fireworks show against Wake Forest, it's time to dial it down for a team that seems to be out-Clemsoning the Tigers this season. The Wolfpack may have had trouble containing East Carolina in the second half in Week 1, but they sure didn't allow whatever the heck happened to Clemson last week in Winston-Salem. The good news for the Tigers is that their offense showed its first signs of life in the post-Trevor Lawrence world in eking out a win against Wake. I think the Tigers remain vulnerable this season and I see them dropping a game at some point (a visit to Tallahassee is imminent), but home field tilts this just too far away from NC State for them to score the upset this time. NcSt: 20--Clem: 21
Schweinfurth: What will the weather look like for this game? We've seen games played at Clemson in a tropical storm before and it was something to behold. NC State has a defense with a pulse, and DJ has struggled at times. I expect this game to be low scoring. I really don't trust DJ to make the game winning play. Wolfpack win. NCST: 13--Clem: 10
Seeberg:  Well Clemson has looked downright borderline competent on offense of late.  Then again, Wake Forest carved them up to the tune of 38 points in regulation before ultimately falling in double OT last week.  Another road test for the Tigers this week but let's face it, the Wolfpack haven't won a big game since...Jim Valvano was running around searching for someone to hug.  And remember, this is a team that had Philip Rivers 20 years ago and Russell Wilson 10 years ago.  Rivers lost in triple OT in the 'Shoe while Wilson transferred to that noted QB haven *checks notes*  Wisconsin??  Yikes.  The Tigers may well slip up somewhere, but it won't be here, hurricane or not.  Clem: 20--NCSU: 13

Kentucky Wildcats @ Ole Miss Rebels

Draper: Is Kentucky for real? in football???? They do sport the best player on the field in Will Levis, but Ole Kiffikins has the Rebs undefeated after games against paper bags.  The Kentucky win over Florida is by far the best resume builder on either roster, but road wins in the SEC are really tough (unless you're Bama).  Now, it needs to be noted that the Wildcats took down the Mighty Gators in the Swamp, but do they have 2 big road wins in them?  Kiffin challenged the crowd in a press conference this week, but even with UK in the top 10....it's still UK.  Regardless, I'm going to stick with some regression to the mean and deviate from my peers.  The Rebels and USC transfer Jaxson Dart cement the SEC West dominance over the 2nd/3rd best SEC East team with a win.  UK: 27--Miss: 30
Hoying: You think these teams were looking forward a bit to this game? Each of them squandered double-digit leads against questionable competition last week to win by a single score each. Kentucky survived due to the play of their QB, while Ole Miss prevailed despite the state of their passing game. We've come a long way since Matt Corral. This year's Rebels rely more on the rushing game; they're the nation's only team with two RBs with 300 yards each (other than our own Pop and Chop). UK didn't really let Florida do anything against them in their single marquee matchup this season, but it's not like the the Wildcats are moving the ball with aplomb either, and that's bad news against an especially stingy Rebel defense. Nevertheless, the Cats' big game experience and star QB power are enough to snag a rare road win against the SEC West. UK: 27--Miss: 24
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is battle tested so far, pulling of the big win at Florida in week 2. Ole Miss really hasn't played anyone to this point. Kentucky can win comfortably if Will Levis can limit the turnovers. And one thing you don't hear about is the Ole Miss D. UK: 35--Ole Miss: 24
Seeberg:    For the first month of the season, the Runnin' Rebs schedule has rivaled that of Michigan.  That's to say it's awful.  An 8-point win over Tulsa is their closest bout to date.  I'm not convinced either of these teams is a contender, but I do know the Wildcats have by far the best win of either team.  Kiffin might try to outscheme Stoops, but his disciplined D should do just enough to escape with a for-the-moment good road win.  UK: 34--Miss: 27

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Schiano has started a little resurgence in the Scarlet Knights to the great 2006 team. Unfortunately....they're not close.  It's hard to write a snipper about a game in which I don't expect anything surprising to happen.  Complacency is the enemy here (and it is real), but I can't envision enough of a letdown for this to swing to Buttgers.  This is a great opportunity for the defense to continue to work the young corners into the rotation and for CJ to continue to pad some numbers with a big 1st half.  Bucks score early and often and Rutgers.....doesn't.  RU: 10--OSU: 63
Hoying: I don't really have anything interesting to say about this game. Rutgers just got blown out by a team without a working offense, and the Buckeyes are working their way into 2019 form. Name your score. And it's not going to get much better going forward. The Buckeye schedule seems to have two real teams (Penn State and TTUN), three possibly OK teams (Iowa, Michigan State, and Maryland), and three candidates for MAC relegation (Indiana, Northwestern, and the team at hand). In seasons like this, you're not happy unless you blow out every team in the latter two sets. You're happy with any win over the big boys, but it's going to be another month until the Bucks get a chance to make State College, PA unhappy. Whom are the Buckeyes playing this week again? Oh yeah, Buckeyes by a million. RU: 3--OSU: 59
Schweinfurth: Ahh, time for the annual Rutgers sacrifice. This game is routinely out of hand early and never very close. While Greg Schiano has brought back the swagger he had on his first stint, he is still punching up about 3 weight classes here. This is set up for Stroud to start off something like 10 for 10 passing and Miyan and TreVeyon going for 100 yards each again. Watch out for the kitchen sink play calling by Rutgers, but that's a known quantity now. Bucks win easily. Just stay healthy. RU: 13--OSU: 56
Seeberg:  Barring injury or the Buckeyes beating themselves with penalties and turnovers, there's just no stopping the offense this year.  Remember, the best WR in the country has been absent nearly the entire year- and he won't be needed for this one either.  The Knights may regain some semblance of credibility under Schiano again, but the only scarlet that matters in this matchup is the scarlet and gray.  Stay in rhythm, stay healthy, and keep hanging half a hundred on conference foes.  RU: 17--OSU: 59

Upset Special
Draper: Texas Tech over Kansas State
Hoying: Purdue over Minnesota
Schweinfurth: Iowa over Michigan
Seeberg:  Oregon State over Utah

Week 4: The Unbeaten Face Adversity

 Standings:

1.) Draper 12-3 (0-3 upset)
2.) Hoying 11-4 (0-3 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 9-6 (1-2 upset)
3.) Seeberg 9-6 (0-3 upset)

As conference season begins in earnest across the college football landscape, thirty-three unbeaten teams remain, including thirty from across the Power 5. Obviously there are too many for us to feature all of their various matchups here but our quick and dirty half-dozen should give you a good overview at the tough slate in store for many top major conference teams.

Maryland Terrapins @ Michigan Wolverines

Draper: I was considering this as an upset special because Maryland is such a volatile program, but the Big House (where fans actually think they can win) makes this a tough trigger.  J.J. McCarthy is the clear September Heisman frontrunner but I anticipate a slight drop when the opponent rises above the JV difficulty in EA Sports.  This game will have a few moments, but Michigan simply has better athletes.  Young Tagovailoa will keep it interesting until Blake Corum pulls away.  Mary: 20--UM: 35
Hoying: I'll be honest: Michigan looks really good this year. Yeah, they've had a chance to beat up on the three blind mice so far, but, as the analysts say, it's not whom you play, it's how you play, and the Wolverines have been playing great. J. J. McCarthy looks like as good a QB the Maize and Blue have had since...Denard? Henne? The head coach himself? The only trouble is we haven't seen him have to respond to adversity at all, and I'm not sure that will happen this week either. Maryland has real actual Big Ten athletes (I suppose) but getting outgained by SMU and barely pulling out a victory doesn't scream "upset threat" to me. Let's see what happens when he has to throw against the Iowa defense next week. As for the Wolverine D, let's see what happens when Penn State comes to town in October. Not a lot of offensive threats until then (yes, that includes you, Maryland). Mary: 10--UM: 34
Schweinfurth: Michigan actually has to play a team with a pulse? This is a nice change from *looks at ranking* playing three of the worst FBS teams in the nation. Do I think Michigan will win this game? Yes. Do I also think that Maryland could have a lead at some past the opening drive? Yes. If there is on thing the Terps can do, it's put up points. I think the Harboogers pull away late, but Maryland will at least put up a fight. Maryland: 28--UM: 42
Seeberg:  Ironically, that squad in the maize and blue we love to hate is in a polar opposite situation to our beloved scarlet and gray.  UM's stellar D may not be quite as elite as last season but the offense appears to be making huge strides whereas our Buckeyes lost a ton of offensive production but the D has stepped up thus far.  What to make of UM?  Nobody knows.  They've destroyed their schedule, which they damn well should, because their SOS is literally the worst in Division I.  Regardless, in comes also-unblemished Maryland to the Big House in the first quasi-test of the season for the Wolverines.  The Terps can score it- their WR room is arguably the best in the conference outside Columbus- and they've recruited relatively well too, but overall their talent depth is still a notch or two below that of UM.  As long as Harbaugh doesn't poop the proverbial bed with the game plan, that talent disparity should show up around late 3rd quarter as they wear the Terrapins down.  Wolverines pull away late.  Mary: 20--UM: 38

Clemson Tigers @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Draper: What is Clemson? They were penciled in as the clear (distant) #4, but do we really have any clue what to expect? The offense is still fairly anemic with a stout defense to keep them afloat.  Now they face last year's ACC Atlantic Champion Demon Deacons.  Winston Salem has some nasty juju in which opposing players always get hurt (see every year FSU is good and plays there--so 10 years ago).  When your team is defense oriented, it's hard for an injury to derail you, so I'll stick with the Tigers, but Wake usually has a trick or two up their sleeve.  Clem: 24--Wake: 17
Hoying: I feel like we've been singing the death of Clemson ever since they lost to the best team in the country by the margin of a pick six to open 2021. Last year they looked awful in a lot of their games against their usual weak ACC slate, but they only lost two more of those games and currently have the nation's longest winning streak at 9. Against all odds, the defense is holding up even after the departure of legendary camera target Brett Venables, but I don't get what's wrong with the offense. Is Dabo's legacy really just built on Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence (with a bit of Kelly Bryant thrown in)? Meanwhile, Wake Forest is having trouble replicating their magical 2021 season (in which they still lost handily to Clemson) as the defense is as bad as ever but QB Sam Hartman isn't up to his dark horse Heisman levels of success from last year. In short, Clemson should be better, and Wake worse, than the last time these two played, so I don't think this should be particularly close. Clem: 31--Wake: 17
Schweinfurth: Clemson just hasn't looked right the last two years. The defense looks fine, but the offense just doesn't have the same punch with D.J. as the QB. Clemson should win this game on the power of their D, but Wake has proved to be a hard out in the past. Clem: 20--Wake: 14
Seeberg:  Make no mistake:  This game is likely to be close.  Clemson's anemic offense keeps a lot of lesser teams competitive, and Wake can score it pretty well.  Unfortunately the Deacons seem to have lost a step from last season, needing a failed 2-point conversion to escape disaster against Liberty las week.  I'd love to see mighty Clemson go down in a stadium that's never even half full (and that I've been to!), but they should do just enough to live to play another day.  Clem: 23--Wake: 17

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Sorry you have to experience this one, Gameday.  The real question: will Anthony Richardson have more TD passes than tackles after this game (so far it's 0 TD passes - 1 tackle).  Tennessee seems to have worked its way up into that 2nd tier SEC East squad with Kentucky, but the Gators have some talent to leverage. The power of Neyland Stadium, Rocky Top, and Mike Stewart will be enough to thwart Napier's upstart campaign.  UF: 20--UT: 27
Hoying: I'm glad I picked Florida to beat Utah in week one, but I don't think the Gators win that game 6 out of 10 times. The Florida offense has gone bye-bye, as their overrated QB can't throw the ball and the run game isn't that impressive either. The defense is...OK...I guess? but not good enough to slow down the juggernaut that Coach Bobby Hill has built down in Knoxville. As long as Rocky Top doesn't fall asleep late in the game like they did against Pitt , we should see Florida slip down another spot to 4th in the SEC East pecking order. Don't sleep on South Carolina, though. UF: 17--UT: 28
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure what to make over either of these two. Florida is propped up by a win over Utah, but got bullied by Kentucky. Tennessee best win to this point is an OT win over Pitt. Ultimately, I think Tennessee has more firepower on offense. Florida has been an interesting turnaround from the mess they had last year, but the Vols just look more well rounded. UF: 17--UT: 21
Seeberg:  Ah yes, my "other" alma mater makes another appearance.  I'm not ready to anoint the Vols as "back" just yet, but Hendon Hooker gives them a fighting chance to get there (well, that and paying literal millions a la TAMU to recruits).  In any event, in comes hated rival Florida who goes as their QB does.  Anthony Richardson is wildly talented but a little too mercurial to trust week in and week out, particularly on the road against a conference rival.  Rocky Top into the night in Knoxville UF: 24--UT: 34

Southern California Trojans @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: USC is wrecking fools out west with Heisman #2 Caleb Williams and Jordan 'chase the $$$' Addison.  While the offense is just churning, the defense is a little bit of a mess.  Did someone say mess? Hello Corvallis.  This has been the place Trojans go to die in the early 2000s...and the Beavers look...competent?  I know there is an imbalance of sheer athleticism, but can the Lincoln Riley push continue? I say sure.  The athletes and scheme will see too much offense for the Trojans for the Beavs to keep up.  USC: 45--Ore St: 30
Hoying: All the attention out west is in Los Angeles after Oregon and Utah faceplanted out of the gate. The Trojans have bought recruited assembled a solid offensive ensemble led by Spencer Rattler's former backup and Pitt's larger-handed offensive weapon from last year. It's a Lincoln Riley team, so expect the offense to be elite. But in order to reach the heights of the great Pete Carroll USC teams, you'll need some defense to go with it, and Oregon State might provide a bit of a test for them. Boise State's not the same Boise State we all knew and tolerated post-Statue of Liberty, but Oregon State still handled them impressively in week 1. And, yes, the Beavs probably should have lost to Fresno State, a team USC just dismantled, but I'm not convinced that USC will be able to slow the Beaver attack to a degree that allows them to dominate this game. USC eventually pulls away to clear a major early hurdle and announce themselves as a genuine championship contender for the first time since 2008. USC: 38--Ore St.: 30
Schweinfurth: Lincoln Riley has brought that Big 12 mantra of all offense, optional defense. The Trojans have put up points in bunches and the Beaver D isn't exactly the most stingy squad, giving up 28 to Montana State. That's not a great tune up for this one. This should be a fun shoot out, but USC's offense is just too much. USC: 56--Ore St.: 42 
Seeberg:  Oregon State is undefeated?  How about that.  One of those wins, incidentally, is a 3-point escape at Fresno State, who USC just whipped last week.  Honestly I'm surprised the Trojans are only favored by 6.  No chance the Beavers can shut down USC at all.  Definitely an entertaining one if you're up late.  USC: 48--Ore St.: 35

Duke Blue Devils @ Kansas Jayhawks

Draper: The game of the week resides in Lawrence, Kansas...and it's not on the hardwood! Bluebloods (in basketball) collide in a titanic match of undefeated juggernauts.  Duke has been pretty decent for the last decade after years of abject ineptitude while Kansas is the perennial doormat that only knows how to beat Texas.  No more.  It's time for a Jayhawk uprising. Lance Leipold rides this epic start into the loving arms of Trev Alberts and the Huskers.  Duke: 30--KU: 35
Hoying: It's a wide-open Big 12 this season, and guess who's alone at the top? That's right, the 3-0 Kansas Jayhawks, and it's no fluke. The Jayhawks are riding a terrifying rushing attack to average over 50 points a game against actual competition with a pulse (looking at you, TTUN), with a stylish OT win at West Virginia getting them into the conference W category already. Duke, on the other hand, has been feasting on phonies. They needed a goal line fumble to beat Northwestern (the weapon of choice for beating B1G West teams with no offense) and their only other chances to flex have been against Temple and NC Verizon. But again, it's not whom you play, it's how you play, and Kansas has looked much, much better so far. I don't expect anything to change this weekend. Duke: 17--KU: 34
Schweinfurth: It's a Kansas sell out! Seriously. Duke comes rolling in with three, meh wins. Kansas actually has a win over a decent West Virginia team. Both of these teams can put up points in bunches, and I wouldn't expect anything less. The crowd should provide the lift for the Jayhawks to move to 4-0. Duke: 42--KU: 49
Seeberg:  Are either of these teams for real on a playing surface that's 120 yards and not 94 feet?  Not sure.  Duke is hanging its hate on beating NW who, if you'll recall, barely beat an absolutely atrocious Nebraska squad.  Rock chalk has impressive wins over West Virginia and Houston so far.  Add that to home field and it's enough to convince me.  Congrats to Lance Leipold on his $7 million a year from whatever program snatches him at the end of the year.  Duke: 31--KU: 45

Wisconsin Badgers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: This game seems pretty similar to the Notre Dame game.  Historically good to great team enters the Shoe with a good defense and questionable offense.  The issues are twofold: 1) Wisconsin's defense is not as good as Notre Dame's and 2) Wisconsin has shown no ability to move the ball.  Braelon Allen was a preseason Heisman contender that has done Jack and Squat so far.  Now, will the OSU defense be able to shut them down like they did Notre Dame? I'm not convinced yet.  I think there will be a few 'what are you doing?' moments for the Bullets, but I'm confident that Stroud and his minions will continue to do work.  This offensive juggernaut has been touched by a few injuries, but they don't turn the ball over and they simply impose their will.  I expect nothing less than a workman like dismantling here.  Biggest spread over Wisky since the 90s? No problem.  UW: 20--OSU: 45
Hoying: I'm really trying not to buy into the hype, because the only time the Buckeyes win national championships in my lifetime is when it seems they have no chance to. But once you've showed your hand like Ohio State has this year, there are only two types of games on the schedule: (1) good teams that you don't care how much you beat by (so long as you win), and (2) games where you're only happy with a blowout. And, sadly, if you're not a raggedy mountain cat or a skunk weasel, you don't qualify for category (1) this season. Wisconsin still plays slow plodding Wisconsin defense that's great for stifling overmatched Big Ten opponents, but haven't been able to handle the Buckeye fun and gun since the early days of Jim Tressel (when...everybody could stop us). Graham Mertz is a below-average Wisconsin QB (notwithstanding everyone gushing over him after he eviscerated Illinois to open the 2020 season), and their rushing attack this year is just OK, which is a death knell for any Badger team. Even if the rushing attack were great, I don't think a Ryan Day Ohio State team would just sit back and let a team beat them by running all over them all game...stop laughing...shut up...things are different now........This offense isn't slowing down until Iowa comes to town, and even then I'd like to see what the Hawkeyes can do to stop it. UW: 13--OSU: 41
Schweinfurth: Time to answer the question of, can the Buckeyes stop the run when you know it's coming? This plagued the team last year, and is why Jim Knowles was brought in to revamp the defense. The early returns have been good for the most part. The deep ball has been the Achilles' Heel this far and stopping the run has been much better. Everyone knows they Badgers are going to pound the ball, so can you man up and shut it down? The Badger defense isn't as talented as it has been, but they are still very disciplined and will put up a test for Stroud and company. Ultimately, this offense is getting healthy and is just too much for the Badgers. UW: 13--OSU: 45 
Seeberg:  The best analogy I can conjure up for this iteration of the Buckeyes' opponent this week is as if they are a clone of a clone of a clone.  Eventually things get fuzzy and not quite as high-quality as the original.  The line is good, not great.  The RB is good, not great.  The QB is meh as usual.  When Bucky fires on all cylinders they can bully anyone in the country, but a couple cylinders are missing right now and there's just no way a B- Wisconsin squad can compete for 4 quarters with the Buckeyes.  There's a reason the line has moved 3 full points in the direction of the Buckeyes in just 5 days.  UW: 16--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Rutgers over Iowa
Hoying: Texas Tech over Texas
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Washington
Seeberg:  Tulsa over Ole Miss

Week 3: Drop It, Rocket!

Standings:

1.) Draper 7-2 (0-2 upset)
1.) Hoying 7-2 (0-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 6-3 (1-1 upset)
3.) Seeberg 5-4 (0-2 upset)

The best thing about being 2-0 is the chance to feel much, much better than you did at this point last year for reasons we don't need to go into here. Quite a few teams across the country similarly have a chance to go 3-0, and there's even a few one loss teams hanging around the rankings (because why rank a team like Marshall or Appalachian State when Baylor, Pitt, and Utah are available?). Not much will shake up the conference standings this week, but quite a few teams still have a chance to ruin their Playoff hopes by playing that out of conference opponent that was just too tough for them to handle.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Welcome home, Ducks.  It's not the Dawgs (you can breathe again) but BYU is coming off a very nice win over a top 10 Baylor.  This is a game where we find out if Oregon is a quality win for UGA or an overrated pile of poo (looking at you, Notre Dame).  I tend to think these two teams are pretty evenly matched talentwise, but Autzen is a heck of an environment to test the Cougars.  The close win at Baylor was a a major feather in BYU's cap and message that they truly belong in the power 5, but I don't know if they're ready for a big road game in a tough environment, against a quality team.  Autzen tilts the battle to the Ducks (and more chest pounding by the SEC).  BYU: 27--Ore: 34
Hoying: One of these teams got the Coach 30 treatment for its only FBS game this year, and the other one just knocked off one of last year's P5 conference champions (and Sugar Bowl champion). OK, I get it. Georgia isn't Baylor (probably). But... BYU beat Baylor without their top two wideouts. I know, Ohio State is doing that every week, but the Cougars were still able to get the air attack going, and now face an Oregon defense that made Stetson Bennett look like Josh Allen (the NFL version, not the Wyoming version). Oregon is somehow favored in this matchup, but BYU should win it straight up. BYU: 31--Ore: 27

Schweinfurth: BYU is getting a ton of hype right now after a huge win last week. Oregon just hasn't lived up to the billing thus far (although most teams would get wrecked by Georgia right now). One of these teams will prove to be way overrated. I think it's Oregon. BYU:35--21
Seeberg:  BYU managed a solid win against defending Big XII champ Baylor last week in spite of being down two of their best WRs.  That type of quality win is tough to ignore.  Oregon, meanwhile, got lambasted against UGA before taking their frustrations out on an FCS squad last week so it's hard to figure out what to make of them.  This game should tell us a lot about both teams.  I, for one, think the home-field advantage in this one tips the proverbial scales to the Ducks and their highlighter-esque uniforms.  Ducks late.  BYU: 24--Ore: 31

 

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Auburn Tigers

Draper: This game holds a lot of the same interest as the previous game...super-duper-meh. These teams have their years of punching for the top tier, but they're not there at this point.  Auburn has really faded into obscurity aside from the random victory (or major choke job) against the Tide.  Penn State seems to just live in the perpetual 'this is the year we finally turn the corner' before MASSIVELY returning to meh-land.  This feels like another 'we're back' game before another crash and burn for the Lions.  Jordan-Hare gives the Tigers a chance, but Auburn simply isn't very good this year.  PSU: 30--Aub: 17
Hoying: These teams may not be in the top 10, but this just might be the highest-stakes game of the week, because it feels like one of these teams is getting ready to fall off a cliff. Penn State, while perhaps not a true national title contender, was nevertheless more often than not in the discussion from about 2005 on, while during the same period Auburn won a title, played for another, and got screwed out of a chance for a third try. But now, Auburn seems to be on an extended losing streak. QB BoNix left for greener and yellower pastures in the Pac-12 for some reason (maybe to get away from Georgia...wait...) and his replacement, TJ Finley, is even worse. Penn State has their own usual problems: so-so QB play, no blocking, and awful play-calling and game management. I got burned believing in Penn State over and over and over last year (except, ironically, against Auburn) and...I'm ready to be hurt again. Auburn is in serious trouble. PSU: 24--Aub: 17
Schweinfurth: Has anyone actually watched an Auburn game this year? They seem stuck in no man's land this year. As much as I deride Franklin's coaching decisions, the Lions should win this game. It should be entertaining to see how each team tries to out fail each other.  PSU: 20--Aub: 13
Seeberg:  Kudos to these two squads for setting up a home and home.  PSU snuck out a win last year at home and they're essentially the same team this year, running it back with Sean Clifford.  Auburn is...Bo Nix-less and, amazingly, even worse.  The ceiling with Clifford is pretty low for the Nittany Lions, but the floor is actually pretty high.  Beating an SEC team on the road should earn him a few more starts before the fan base clamors for the freshman backup.  PSU: 27--Aub: 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: All I really know about these teams is that NC State entered the year as the darkhorse in the ACC and narrowly avoided my upset special in week 1.  As for Texas Tech, well, they're undefeated....yay.  This feels like a game the Wolfpack have to win to maintain any momentum going into the ACC slate if they have further aspirations.  I'll lean on the home crowd in Raleigh to be the difference, but I wouldn't be shocked if Texas Tech shows that NC State was a preseason darling flop.  TT: 17--NCSt: 24
Hoying: I know this isn't a ranked matchup. After all, the AP voters have to have some standards. All Texas Tech did was beat ranked Houston last week; they didn't go the extra mile like other Texas teams and lose to Alabama or Appalachian State. Every year, there are a few teams without recent success that are hyped up beyond all reason, and none this year stands out more starkly than the NC State Wolfpack. NC State has not won 10 games in a season since Philip Rivers was slinging the rock back in 2002. NC State did not win the Atlantic division of the ACC in 2021, the one season during the Playoff era in which Clemson and Florida State both faceplanted (Wake Forest won it instead). And this very season, NC State remains in the ranks of the ranked because East Carolina couldn't make an extra point or a field goal in the closing minutes of the season opener (*Bengals flashbacks intensify*). Maybe beating Houston at home in double overtime isn't terribly impressive, but I'll still stick with the hot hand. TTU: 27--NCSt: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, I have no idea about either of these teams. I guess I'll pick the Wolfpack, just because? TTU: 31--NCSt: 35
Seeberg:  Well let's see, what have we here?  The Red Raiders got a resume boosting win against ranked opponent *checks notes* Houston?  Not sure that qualifies.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack were a preseason darling before sneaking out a win against  *checks notes again* East Carolina?  Yikes.  I have serious doubts that either team is "for real" or "back" or whatever terminology we're using these days, but Carter Finley should give the home team a boost before inevitably losing to Duke or another ACC also-ran program.  Wolfpack pull away late.  TT: 24--NCSU: 34

Michigan State Spartans @ Washington Huskies

Draper: A fun weird Power 5 inter-conference matchup. Michigan State is still riding the wave from Mel Tucker's inaugural season, but Ken Walker isn't walking through that door (although he is in Seattle...).  IU legend, Michael Penix leads the Huskies into battle against a familiar foe.  Once again, I don't have much insight into this battle, but I'm intrigued as to what all this means.  I really don't think MSU is that talented with Payton Thorne at the helm, but UW is still rebuilding.  The Seattle venue makes this juicy, but I think I'll lean on the big slobberknockers to get it done on the coast.  I think these teams are more similar than the rankings suggest, but Sparty wins ugly.  MSU: 24--UW: 20
Hoying: Another puzzler: Michigan State is ranked #11, Washington is not ranked, and Washington is favored? Disrespekt is flying in all directions in this matchup. After all the craziness we've seen in the first two weeks of this season, how many teams have looked consistently dominant both weeks? Georgia, Wake, Ole Miss, and, I would argue, these two teams. Sure, they've combined to play 3 MAC teams and Portland State, but we've seen team after team struggle with lesser competition in this young season. MSU QB Payton Thorne is clearly missing WR Jalen Nailor this season (though Jayden Reed is still there) as the Spartans continue to rely on their running game even after the departure of superstar RB Kenneth Walker. Meanwhile out west, QB Michael Penix is doing his best to hold both ACLs intact and recapture some of that 2020 magic. Thankfully he only has to play one Big Ten team this year but unfortunately it's the one at hand. At least his O-line should be better than the atrocious unit that was getting him killed on an annual basis at Indiana. You surely remember what happened the last time the Spartans played a team that could air it out. Heck, Penix himself did it to MSU back in that crazy 2020 season to the tune of a 24-0 whomping. I don't think MSU has magically figured him out, so as long as he stays upright, he should be able to overcome what was all too often a liability of a Husky defense in 2021. MSU: 30--UW: 33
Schweinfurth: This is an interesting one to me and it feels as if this is that annual "Sparty No" game. I do think Michigan State is better than Washington, but Seattle has always proved tricky for B1G teams. Sparty should win, but this is probably closer than it should be. MSU: 28--UW: 21
Seeberg:  Interesting matchup here of oft-overlooked power five programs who've done remarkably well in the playoff era (both have made the playoff actually).  Sparty hit transfer portal gold with Kenneth Walker III last season but they've seemed a bit disjointed thus far trying to duplicate that transfer magic.  UW's QB is a name we know well, perennially injured Michael Penix of former Hoosier glory.  I would expect the post-Dantonio Spartans to whip up a solid defensive scheme against a QB they know well, and escape the west coast with a win that may look pretty good late in the season.  MSU: 27--UW: 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: Is THE U back? Is A&M garbage? I think the answer is 'not yet' and 'probably not'.  Cristobal is getting the ball rolling in Miami, but it will take time to return to the level they want.  A&M are fresh off an inexplicable loss to App St, but the dirty secret is that the Mountaineers might be pretty good.  I'll credit the Aggies with holding App St to 17 points after the week 1 shootout in Boone, but it's still App St.  The offense is the issue in College Station so Jimbo has moved to all time name candidate and LSU transfer Max Johnson at QB.  I don't think this is enough to ignite the Aggies and return to greatness, but with throws like these, who can ask for more? Seriously, the A&M recruits/athletes are better than the Canes (for now).  Will that translate to success? Who knows? Regardless, I'll roll with the Aggies to 'right the ship' at Kyle Field.  It's too soon for the Canes, but with hype videos like this, the sky's the limit.  UM: 13--TAMU: 20
Hoying: Stop me if you've heard this one. "Oh, now Miami has a great QB. Look out, ACC!" We've been hearing this chorus ever since Brock Berlin took over for Ken Dorsey, and it's never quite panned out. The Hurricanes have won a total of one Coastal division title, which they parlayed into getting pasted by Clemson by 35 in the ACC Championship. I'm not saying that exact result can't happen again this season, but I'm going to be one of the last few on the Miami comeback train. That being said, I don't have a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Texas A&M either. If the offense isn't moving the ball against Sun Belt teams, what hope do the Aggies have against a real defense? Does Miami have a real defense? Hard to say, as not many of these guys were starting last year (at least not for Miami; hooray for the transfer portal). A&M is going to get a nasty wake-up call when SEC play begins, although they're already living a nightmare now, but I don't trust Miami's defense to frustrate the Aggies to the extent App State did (am I going insane?). UM: 20--TAMU: 24
Schweinfurth: Last week was fun. TAMU losing to App State was one of the main reasons for that. The blueprint has been laid for how to beat the Aggies. A good run game and bleed the clock paid dividends last week. Here comes Miami. Remember what Mario Cristobal's Ducks pulled off last year against a team that couldn't man up against the run (looking at you Bucks)? Between the App State hangover and another team that will probably pound the ball, I'll take the Canes. UM: 21--TAMU: 17
Seeberg: Breaking news!  The Aggies have switched QBs for this game.  Let's get real though they had less than 100 yards passing AND running against Appalachian State so a quarterback switch is not going to be the panacea for which they're desperately searching.  Reminder, the Tar Heels scored SIXTY-THREE POINTS against our Columbus-beloved App St the week before.  They literally gave up 40 fourth-quarter points and still won.  I get the distinct impression that Jimbo's offensive woes (hey that rhymes!) are going to take more than a week to iron out.  Hurricanes mercifully remove the Aggies from the rankings.  UM: 20-TAMU: 13 

Toledo Rockets @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Here's another placeholder game for the Bucks to fix the mistakes before entering the conference schedule.  The Rockets shoot in at 2-0 and maybe have a little juice hoping to be the first Ohio team to knock off the Buckeyes since Oberlin.  I just can't see it happening.  The Buckeyes look to get JSN and Fleming back this weekend so the rich get richer.  I know many people want JSN held out until Wisconsin, but I think facing the live action is needed to get back into game shape.  The defense was played the bend don't break card, but there appeared to be a few gaps/missed assignments last week.  I'm chalking it up to the opponent and I want to see growth every week (Burke...please start playing like last year and not a chump).  The offense was a little slow out of the gates, but I think it was motivation.  Day and Co. should give the team a little kick in the butt to establish dominance early and allow for some rest in the latter quarters.  Stroud will be fine and should pump in monster numbers as well.  I expect the backups get some play in the 4th as we're on to Wisconsin.  Enjoy us old guys going down the ramp one more time (except for Tyler....he sucks).  UT: 17--OSU: 55  
Hoying: I like these boring writeups when Ohio State is playing well, the opponent is easily manageable, and a blowout is in the cards. There are still a few areas to clean up (secondary, penalties, having healthy receivers) but overall the Buckeyes are firing well on both sides of the ball. Still, I'd like to see one game up to Michigan September Heisman levels of devastation before the B1G slog begins next week, and Toledo is the perfect patsy. They don't throw the ball well, so if the Buckeyes can get up a couple scores early, we could be looking at a Michigan State-level meltdown. And with Jaxon and (maybe) Julian back on the field, and Pop and Chop cooking in the backfield, a couple early scores shouldn't be too tall of an order. UT: 13--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: There isn't much to say here. This game should be over by the end of the first half. I would like to see fewer penalties this week, especially fewer procedural ones. On offense, more TDs than punts this week would be nice (Bucks have punted 10 times already this year). On defense, get Denzel Burke right. Past that? More of the same please. Keep everyone healthy and act appropriately. UT: 10--52
Seeberg:  Ah yes, our yearly "keep some money in the state" game against a MAC foe.  Toledo comes rolling in at 2-0 with a schedule thus far that might even be worse than TTUN's.  My primary concern is the fact that reports suggest JSN might play.  I said it last week and I'll say it again.  Keep.  Him.  Off.  The.  Field.  He is superfluous in this one.  Let him get healthy before we hit conference play.  Julian Fleming, however, hasn't seen much of the field in his time thus far, so getting some game reps for him might be worth it if he's ready.  The offense was pretty hit or miss last week and that rhythm needs to be found relatively soon.  Also, where are the turnovers on defense?  I was told that would be a big part of things and not a single TO has been forced through two weeks, including one week against markedly inferior competition.  Turn the Rockets over, give Stroud a short field, RUN THE DAMN BALL, and get the starters out after the first drive of the 3rd quarter.  Please.  Thank you.  UT: 13--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Nebraska over Oklahoma (SICKOS)
Hoying: South Carolina over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Louisiana Tech over Clemson
Seeberg:  UTSA over Texas