Week 1: McCording to Kyle

The 2023 Ohio State football season kicks off with stage one of a potentially four-part Rampage: Indiana Tour, with stops scheduled in Bloomington, South Bend, West Lafayette, and, with Woody's intercession, Indianapolis once more. Not quite last season's opening headliner but the slate is rather ho-hum across the nation. The casual fan will be waiting with bated breath for Sunday night's rematch of one of the silliest games of 2022, one which left fans wondering if the ghost of Les Miles still walked the sidelines of the bayou.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: This is the greatest experiment in college football in a long time.  I have no idea how this Deion business is going to play out, but it should be interesting at least.  With regard to play on the field, the Prime Time vibes have people forgetting what a mess this program was in last year.  I don't think the amazing transfer success will right the ship.  In addition, the 'if one fights, we all fight' philosophy is just lighting a powder keg.  TCU isn't flashy and lost a ton of talent, but they did play for the National Title last year.  Even with that, I think they win this one easily and remind people that the glitz and glamor can't turn around a program in a heartbeat.  CU: 14--TCU: 34
Hoying:  You can tell that Coach Prime must have played a lot of EA Sports' NCAA Football because he's using the same strategy I use when taking over a garbage program: methodically cut all the scrubs that got the last guy fired and bring in your shiny new recruits to take their place. It's just that I didn't expect him to go all "Football Team of Theseus" on day one, with over 70 players hitting the portal since last season alone. Of course, the team on the other sideline isn't completely intact from 2022 either, with the national runner-up (?!?) TCU Horned Frogs looking to move past Heisman runner-up (?!?!?) Max Duggan and quite a few other key contributors. Fortunately for TCU, Duggan is being replaced by last year's season starter, Chandler Morris, so I wouldn't expect a huge dropoff at this position alone. Then again, even Duggan and maximum roster TCU only pulled within 58 points of a national championship, so don't expect the Frogs to become the next Alabama anytime soon. But they aren't playing Alabama this week. They're playing the bottom feeder of a dying conference, trying to break in an entire new roster at once. Growing pains can be brutal when there's nowhere to go but up. CU: 9--TCU: 34

Schweinfurth: Man, it’s good to be back. However, we start the year off with Colorado? I guess Coach Prime brings some juice to this game? It will be interesting to see how a full roster makeover goes. This was weaponizing the transfer portal to the max. As for the game, TCU has quite a lot to replace of their team from last year, but I’ve learned not to doubt the Horned Frogs. ALL HAIL HYPNOTOAD!! CU: 17—TCU: 35
Seeberg:  Hey kids, college football is BACK...and not like Texas is back, it's back for real!  How do I know?  I've already been roundly chastised by multiple members of the Penn State fan base on Twitter for insinuating that having a new QB may cost them a game or two this season...literally right after one of their fans showed McSorely (3 losses) and Clifford's (2 losses) first years as inexperienced starters.  Regardless, Neon Deion is back and coaching the Buffaloes for...reasons?  We know next-to-nothing about how either squad will really look.  Deion brings in a massive load of transfers and TCU lost exactly half of their starters, including Max Duggan.  The Frogs should be able to run it, however, with Emani Bailey and Bama transfer Trey Sanders in the backfield.  Continuity should matter early in the season, and the Buffs don't have it just yet.  Hypnotoad swirls on.  UC: 17--TCU: 27

Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies

Draper: This was a fun game when it happened....10 years ago. Now, it's just the future Big Ten legends vs. the 'oh yeah, this team was a fun Cinderella for awhile'...10 years ago.  This needs to be a statement game for the Huskies if they plan on showing off their Big Penix Energy.  The hopes and dreams of the Pacific Northwest ride in purple and gold.  I expect UW to come out with a very strong start to the season.  I don't see the slip-up here.  BSU: 17--UW: 41
Hoying: Every Cinderella either dies a hero or lives long enough to become Gonzaga. After a decade-plus tear that almost saw the Broncos climb to the top of the all-time winning percentage ranking across all of FBS, the mojo has cooled a bit. Boise State hasn't beaten a big name out of conference since Florida State in 2019, and they haven't beaten a great nonconference opponent since their Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona nearly 10 years ago. That's bad news when you're staring down a team that was a couple of bad bounces away from running the regular season slate last year. BSU: 20--UW: 34

Schweinfurth: Boise State just isn’t the same as it was about 6-7 years ago. This game in past years would be Boise’s season. This year, they shouldn’t offer Washington much resistance. This should be a stat game for Michael Penix. BSU: 14—UW: 38
Seeberg:  Well, the Buckeyes giving Michael Penix a dose of reality may have been the best medicine for him.  Penix seems to have started a new trend of B1G QBs heading elsewhere for greener pastures when they can't beat the Bucks (not sure all the pastures are that green however as Graham Mertz has currently put up a whopping 3 points in Utah halfway through the 3rd quarter as I type this).  Regardless, the Huskies have some weapons around Penix and he lit up the PAC-12 10 whatever is left last season.  The Broncos, meanwhile, are still a very good group of 5 squad, but they just haven't been able to compete with the big boys consistently since Chris Petersen's departure- ironically to help the Huskies back to prominence.  Does the headline "former Hoosier quarterback's Heisman campaign off to a good start" confuse anybody else?  Stranger things have happened I suppose.  BSU: 20--Wash: 38

Louisiana State Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

Draper: Week 1 heavyweight matchups can be quite deceiving in 2 ways.  They could be an exciting barnburner in which you can tell the teams are still raw and need to grow, or one team, who everyone thought was good, might actually suck. I think these teams are both going to be very good, but I doubt they'll be in crisp midseason form.   Quite frankly, I'm not sure the Noles are quite up to the hype this year. They'll be very good, but I'm not convinced the natty is in the future.  However, that is the definition of LSU most years (and is this year as well).  I anticipate a bunch of silly mistakes defining the game (see last year LSU vs. FSU), but you know I'm talkin' bout the Noles.  Brian Kelly turns purple as Jordan Travis jumps to the number 2 QB in the Heisman race.  LSU: 31--FSU: 34
Hoying: Go ahead and toss Florida State into the same are they /aren't they back bag that's been occupied by Texas and Tennessee over the Playoff era. Knowing what we know now, last year's improbable win over LSU would have been considered a big step in the correct direction, but the Noles followed it up with an October to forget, and were quickly forgotten. The FSU offense may nearly be in championship form (ACC championship at least), but for the time being, BK has it his way. LSU: 27--FSU: 21

Schweinfurth: Hopefully this is the game we all need this week. These first week top 10 games can be a bit of an enigma in some years. In all honesty, I just don’t thing Brian Kelly is all he’s made out to be. I’ll take the Noles here at home. LSU: 21—FSU: 28
Seeberg:  Kudos to these two for playing this game and attempting to salvage a mostly mundane week one slate.  The talent on these two squads is undeniable...and unpredictable.  Both teams will have multiple transfers playing critical roles on both sides of the ball.  However, both teams also return 8 offensive starters from relatively explosive units last season.  Continuity matters early.  This game truly feels like a coin flip, and the mystery of week one only adds to the indecisiveness.  Let's just hope for a game as good as last year, and the Tigers get their revenge late.  LSU: 37--FSU: 31

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Remember when Dwayne Haskins started? Justin Fields? CJ Stroud? Every time, Buckeye Nation held their collective breath to say 'we should be good, but what about the QB?'  Since Ryan Day has been here, the new QB has stepped into a Heisman finalist role almost from day 1.  The pieces of this team are just too good to ignore.  It's a huge boon to anyone taking a snap.  There are 2 enormous questions that may be more important than who's under center: 1) will this offensive line be serviceable? and 2) will the defense ever gel against the big boys?  I'm a little worried about the big uglies as we lost some major talent last year.  The skill position guys are the best in the nation, but while the best friend to a new QB may be his receiver, his mental state needs the protection.  With the defense, it's put up or shut up time.  Superstar athletes pepper the roster.  It's time to make it count.  Honestly, the defense only struggled in giving up explosives last year....which is kind of a big deal.  Limit that in all games (especially the big ones) and Jim Knowles will have earned his pay.  Repeat the sins of the last 2 years and it's a one was ticket to cutsville.  Some are asking where the 'tuneup' game is before a Big Ten opponent.  The good news? Indiana sucks.  There is no reason for this game to be in question at half.  Take your stadium picture, Hoosiers, and have a nice weekend.  Marv is ready to return to glory.  OSU: 48--IU: 13
Hoying: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. It's all we heard about in the offseason, even though the Bucks return so much production at other positions on both sides of the ball. The only real question marks I see across the roster are offensive line, QB (we're going to be fine), and, well, whether this defense will ever really work. A new starting QB and a prior season bowl loss is traditionally a great recipe for a Buckeye national championship. At any rate, we probably won't learn many answers to our questions this weekend; Indiana has snapped back to reality after the attempted usurpation in 2020 and is always for what ails ya. Probably the most interesting thing we'll learn is what the intended snap mix at running back will be, and whether Tre has his quick step back. OSU: 45--IU: 17

Schweinfurth: It’s great to have the Buckeyes back. After what seems like a ton of twists and turns this offseason, Ryan Day finally landed on…Kyle McCord. Really, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. McCord’s been the back up under Stroud and looked pretty good in his one start. I am a bit curious to see what Devin Brown brings and if the team responds better to him or McCord. On defense, I truly hope the big plays are shored up. Those plays single handedly killed this team last year. The good news is that Indiana shouldn’t be very good and is a good B1G school to get started with. Bucks win and hopefully we get some questions answered. OSU: 42—IU: 10
Seeberg: Here we go again, starting the season with a fresh QB on the road against a conference opponent.  Thankfully the Hoosiers have dropped off considerably from their COVID-era stretch (a certain QB transferring may have contributed).  All the talk coming out of camp is how vastly improved the back 7 on D are...and don't we all hope??  The QBs have received the bulk of the attention, but the OL is a bit untested and will play a crucial role as the season progresses.  Saturday, however, it's about our first glimpses into what McCord/Brown can do leading an almost-comical amount of skilled talent on offense.  I find it slightly disconcerting that neither wowed the coaches enough to take hold of the position- but I find it relieving that Day and Co. didn't think it was necessary to shop for another quarterback in the transfer portal, which they've done quite successfully when needed (Justin Fields vs. Tate Martell ring a bell?).  I hope the offense hums and the defense stymies.  3:30 can't get here soon enough!  OSU: 45--IU: 10 

Upset Special
Draper: Duke over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Penn State
Schweinfurth: Rice over Texas
Seeberg:  Fresno State over Purdue

New Year's Six - Movin' to the Country, Gonna Eat Mor Buldog

 Final Standings:

1.) Hoying 44-21 (3-10 upset)
2.) Draper 43-22 (1-12 upset)

2.) Seeberg 43-22 (0-13 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 41-24 (6-7 upset)

Another year, another Ohio State appearance in the Playoff. As you prepare to watch college football through confetti, don't forget to take a moment to consider the poor unfortunate souls whose ceiling was the orange-est Orange Bowl ever, a sour Sugar Bowl for one perennial championship contender, or a trip to Jerry World to face an angry puddle.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30

Orange³ Bowl: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Clemson Tigers

Draper: (Editor's note: I and my family are ill so these writeups will be short) In the Orange Bowl to end all Orange Bowls, we are faced with the ugly new world of the bowls with players opting out left and right.  While Tennessee had a year that would have thrilled any Vol fan by almost any metric, I feel they are simply too depleted to defeat a Clemson team that is trying to remain in the elite tier.  This is Klubnik's team now and he has plenty to prove.  Dabo's team takes the oranges in God's name, image, and likeness.  UT: 23--Clem: 34
Hoying: If this game were scheduled back in early November, when both these teams were 8-0, I'm guessing Vegas would peg this one as an absolute laugher victory for the Vols. Now, the picture's not so clear. Not only are Tennessee's electric QB Hendon Hooker and their two best receivers, including Biletnikoff winner (*massive eye roll*) Jalin Hyatt, opting out of the bowl, but the Vols were run off the field by South Carolina even with these players (mostly playing), losing by 25 in contrast to Clemson's 1 point squeaker loss to the 'Cocks. Speaking of South Carolina, let's take a moment to celebrate their crucial role in preparing the way of Ohio State to return to the Playoff. Every Death Valley filled in, every Rocky Top made low...where was I? Oh yes, Tennessee has been brought back down to Earth, which Clemson never really had any delusions of leaving. DJ Uiagaleilei never quite worked out over the past 3 seasons, and he's off to Oregon State (to play against his D-line Duck-bound brother?), finally opening the doorfor Cade Klubnik to wield the reins unchallenged. It worked well in the ACC Championship game, but that was against a suspect North Carolina secondary, and...oh...right...the Tigers are playing Tennessee. Expect Joe Milton (remember him from the worst Michigan team since, oh, every RichRod one) to struggle throwing to a depleted receiver corps, as the Clemson D and Klubnik step up just enough to earn the W. UT: 27--Clem: 31

Schweinfurth: I'm really not even sure who is playing in this game. DJ is transferring and Tennessee has half the offense opting out or injured. The Vols offense has been questionable, at best, this year. I guess we see what these two teams might look like next year. UT: 21--Clem: 34
Seeberg:  Bowl games are becoming progressively more difficult to predict with the opt-outs.  This one is compounded by the injury to Hendon Hooker AND the transfer portal where DJ Ukulele sits.  The Vols' offense still looked potent in an absolute thrashing of Vandy after Hooker went down, but now their top 2 WRs are declining to play.  DJ, however, transferred after losing his starting job to a freshman (last time Clemson did that, it was Trevor Lawrence taking over.  Worked out ok).  Have to trust the TIgers' shade of orange just a little bit more in this one.  Don't adjust your television sets.  UT: 20--Clem: 33

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31

Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: Bama's stars have said they will be playing for the Sugar Bowl, but the question is will they care? Bryce Young has actually been really good this year, but Kansas State and the Deuce have laid it all out there and will certainly continue to do so.  I really want to pick the team that wants to be there, but the talent disparity is simply too great.  Sigh....give me Bama.  Bama: 30--KSU: 17
Hoying: It's become something of a joke at this point, but yes, Alabama is beatable in bowl games, even if they "want to be there". Utah and Oklahoma earned those Sugar Bowl victories in 2009 and 2014, and the Tide are vulnerable again, to the right kind of opponent. Yes, their two losses this season were to ranked opponents on a last-second FG and an overtime 2-point conversion, but Alabama also won on an (essentially) last-second FG, an (essentially) 2-point conversion, and a late stand in the red zone against Ole Miss. The Tide offense still looks really good, but they have been inconsistent on defense, particularly against the run. And Kansas State looooves to run. Even so, I don't see this one being particularly close. I think the Wildcats captured lightning in their OT win over TCU and won't be able to do it again against a talent-superior team. Bama: 34--KSU: 23

Schweinfurth: I'm not sure if Bama showing up to this game will matter. The talent gap here seems enormous. Will I be rooting for the upset? Yes. Will it happen? No. Bama should win fairly easy. Bama: 42--KSU: 17
Seeberg:  Honestly I'm not gonna spend much time breaking this one down.  Two of the top 3 picks in the 2023 draft are playing in this game despite it being for "nothing".  That's all you need to know.  Young and Andersen go out winners.  Bama: 41--KSU: 24

MONDAY, JANUARY 2

Cotton Bowl: Southern California Trojans vs. Tulane Green Wave

Draper: The Group of 5 representative has fared pretty well in the past (sorry, Cincy) due to the "give a crap" factor.  USC had everything in front of them, but it all went poof vs. the Utes.  Can the Heisman winner come back from injury to lead his team over the feared Green Wave? You know....I think this one will come down to motivation and Lincoln Riley's poor bowl record.  USC: 27--Tul: 31
Hoying: Doesn't quite have the luster of USC's last visit to the Cotton Bowl to face the Buckeyes, does it? Everyone who wanted an expanded Playoff with one spot reserved for the top Group of 5 conference champion, just think about this Tulane team walking into a postseason game with national championship implications, just to get lit up by some second-tier team like Penn State or USC. Yes, Lincoln Riley has concocted the most ineffective Trojan defense since Priam, but the offense is still in tip-top form. That is, as long as Caleb Williams is fighting fit. I'm not really sure why Riley let him stay in the game in the closing minutes of their blowout loss to Utah, just for him to take hit after hit on his already busted leg. USC clearly won last year's transfer portal stakes, patching over the mediocre USC of recent years gone by, but a consequence thereof is that the Trojans are precariously thin at many positions, most notably quarterback. Backup Miller Moss has attempted all of 14 passes this year. The Trojans are already on their backup running back after Travis Dye was lost for the season. If they were playing anyone else in the New Year's Six I would be concerned, but it's Tulane. If USC wants to wash the taste of their Playoff-blocking faceplant against Utah, now is the time. USC: 38--Tul: 31 

Schweinfurth: Tulane is going to score in this one. USC's defense is straight trash. The problem for Tulane is that USC can put up points in truckloads. Crazy things happen in the Cotton Bowl, but USC should win. USC: 42--Tul: 35
Seeberg:  Heisman hangover?  Lack of motivation?  The Green Wave and their bevy of awesome uniforms will need all of that and more to keep this one competitive.  Yes, Tulane can score it, but they're not built like the Utes that proved to be USC's kryptonite and, quite frankly, it's hard to imagine the Green Wave putting up a ton of resistance defensively, even with the Trojans' best RB down for the year.  USC should still possess enough motivation to want to end the year strong after the disastrous second half against Utah, and that's enough to pull out a W.  USC: 41--Tul: 27 

Rose Bowl: Utah Utes vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Penn State is really living off their losses from the year. The win over Auburn was nice, but seriously...who cares.  Utah had their Super Bowl in the Pac 12 championship, but the Ute fans truly believe in this team.  Dalton Kincaid is an absolute stud, and his absence will be noticeable.  I think this is the time for Penn State to make a huge statement that they should be considered in the upper echelon of the B1G next year (but they won't be....nor should they be).  That being said, this is a nice billboard material game to say, like every good Cubs fan, "there's always next year".  UU: 27--PSU: 30
Hoying: It's tough to be Penn State this year. You play two games of consequence against the Big Two, lose both by double digits, and pound the rest of the Little Twelve. One wonders what heights they could have reached in the ACC, Big 12, or Pac-12. Well, here's their opportunity to measure up against the Pac-12 champion. Utah has shown wonderful balance this year, strong on both sides of the ball, with a decent passing offense and an elite-level rushing attack. We've seen Penn State face one (sigh) elite-level rushing attack this season, and it went for 418 yards on the ground. That being said, the Nittany Lions are no slouch in their own right, apart from a curiously overrated rushing attack of their own. Yes, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen may be problems for opponents someday, but for now, they're just sort of...OK. I know Happy Valley is sick of Sean Clifford by now, but he's not a bad QB, he's just not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields (or even Trace McSorley). This will be a real gut-check game for the Pac-12. How can their top teams fare against the second tier of the Big Ten? My guess is just well enough to lose a hard-fought battle. UU: 24--PSU: 27

Schweinfurth: Utah came oh, so close last year to upsetting the Buckeyes. This is almost the same Utes team that was here last year. This Penn State team is not great away from Beaver Stadium and the Utes are primed to get that first Rose Bowl win. Watch the Utes win this on a walk off field goal.  UU: 31--PSU: 28
Seeberg:  This is almost undoubtedly the best bowl game outside the playoff.  Both of these squads are in the Rose Bowl, and the Rose Bowl still means something to both of these schools (as it should).  Utah was tantalizingly close to a win last year, staved off only by an absolutely bonkers game from Stroud and JSN.  To their credit, the Nittanies absolutely rolled through the garbage schedule of the last month of the season after the disappointing losses to TTUN and OSU.  Utah, meanwhile, had midseason hiccups as well but blasted the Trojans to get back to the Rose Bowl again.  With nobody else of note on their schedule, it's just too difficult to get a read on Penn State even at the end of the year.  I get the sense the Utes are too motivated to let a second straight Rose Bowl trip yield no prize.  Utes late.  UU: 30--PSU: 24

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 31 again

Fiesta Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: The Wolverines are only the 3rd team in CFP history to be a top 2 seed in the CFP 2x (how's that for a cherry-picked stat!).  Everyone will be slobbing on the Wolverines after the lopsided score in The Game "crowned them", but I'm still not sold.  They've looked flawed throughout the year in different ways and lived off the big play vs. the Bucks (they earned the win and deserved it...but I don't know how prescriptive it is).  TCU had a huge disappointment at the end of a magical year, but they're still there with everything in front of them.  In fact, TCU still has the team of destiny flair with Max Duggan's heroics in the Big 12 Championship.  And maaaaybe, TCU can learn from OSU's mistakes and FREAKING TARGET THE FREAK WIDE RECEIVER ALL DAY.  With that, I'm going with the heart.  All Hail Hypnotoad.  Why?  UM: 21--TCU: 23
Hoying: Michigan has looked anywhere from good to very very good this season, with the exception of the first half of their last regular season game and the near entirety of their prior outing against Illinois. That's not a great trend heading into a game that could simultaneously be their biggest game of the year and something of a letdown. You go on the road to play your undefeated #2-ranked rival, beat them there for the first time in 22 years, and now you get...TCU? Who sputtered themselves in their last outing. Yes, the Wolverines were able to dispatch Purdue with ease but something has looked off with them in their prior couple of games. After seeing the success Donovan Edwards was having while spelling Blake Corum earlier in the year I was tempted to think that the Michigan rushing attack was as plug-and-play as Ohio State's, but they really looked awful against Illinois when both players were unavailable. And Edwards did jack squat against Ohio State until we started running our "every play is 4th-and-1" defense. I'm worried that he's not 100%, and the recently liberated Wolverine deep passing attack isn't going to be able to do enough to bail out Michigan's hobbled rush O now that his opponents know how to prepare for JJ McCarthy and his pedestrian receiving corps. They are begging to get tagged, and TCU is just good enough to make it happen. The Horned Frogs may be by far the weakest of the four Playoff teams at full strength, but their defense has been steadily improving throughout the season and their options in the running game should be able to break through the Wolverine stone wall. Don't turn this one off at halftime if the Frogs are up, since no lead is safe against America's greatest second half team (sigh), but TCU will do just enough to jump to the doorstep of their first national title. UM: 23--TCU: 24

Schweinfurth: 5 plays and defensive breakdowns were all that stood between Ohio State in this position and TTUN. I'll be honest, McCarthy still can't throw the ball downfield. He underthrows everything and is lucky that some of his guys were wide open. Max Duggan played the game of his life against Kansas State and his team came up just short. TTUN is a second half team, I'll give them that. If this is close at halftime, TTUN runs away. I'm gonna type this score and go puke. UM: 35--TCU: 21
Seeberg:  As I've looked over TTUN and their games this season, I have to give credit where credit is due.  They rarely put away any competent opponents by halftime.  And by competent, I don't mean OSU or PSU, I mean Indiana (tied 10-10), Purdue (led 14-13), Illinois (led 7-3), and even TRAILED Rutgers at halftime.  I think TCU is certainly a step up from any of those opponents in terms of playmaking ability and likely physicality (with the possible exception of Illinois).  The script sets up perfectly against a similar opponent that likes to run it and limit possessions.  Sadly, UM does it a little better.  It won't wind up 52-17 like the Rutgers scoreline, but *dry heaves in mouth* TTUN will play for a natty.  UM: 31--TCU: 17

Peach Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The shot at redemption has never been greater that this moment.  The Buckeyes are hyper-hyper talented and just haven't consistently lived up to that late in the year.  Either it gels now, or it's lost to history.  Buckeye Nation has hated on CJ for an inexcusable amount of time (any time is inexcusable).  He's arguably the greatest QB in the school's history, but the albatross of never beating TTUN is just too much.  Georgia is a behemoth team with absolute stud's on defense that make UM's defense look puny....but....if the Buckeyes can play to THEIR strengths and FEED MARV all day, there is a chink in the armor.  The Buckeye defense has to limit the big plays and Brock Bowers is an enormous problem, but if the Bucks can operate on offense like they are capable and get Stetson Bennett (of Stetson's Used Car Dealership) to make a few mistakes, there is a path forward in a shootout.  You want to be the king...you'd best not miss.  GO BUCKS!  OSU: 45--UGA: 40
Hoying: Oh, doom and gloom, woe is me, our team just lost the first game of the season, our fifth of the four-year Ryan Day era...and the Buckeyes are right back in the Playoff regardless. We've seen this story before, where a Buckeye team slides from #5 to #4 on Championship Weekend and then plows right through the field on the way to a national title. We've even seen Alabama lose their last game of the regular season, to their rival, miss their conference championship, and back into the Playoff on their way to a golden lipstick of their own. Wasn't this the matchup everybody was expecting for the National Championship? One bad half of football and suddenly Ryan Day is a drooling moron, CJ Stroud is a weak-willed scrub, and we don't belong on the same field as the mighty Georgia Bulldogs. It's true, the Buckeyes are depleted at running back. We've still not completely recovered from losing possibly the best player in the country in week 1. And the flaws of the Knowles scheme were laid completely bare at the worst possible times in the debacle against the Wolverines. But it's also true that there's not a team in the nation that can stop this passing attack when it's fully humming. The Achilles heel of the offense was thought to be Stroud's decision making and lack of desire to run when he's pressured. But somewhat lost in the sauce against Michigan was the stellar play of the Ohio State offensive line. Not only did Stroud have all day to throw, but Chip Trayanum had big holes to run through all first half long. Georgia is a bit of a different animal, but the Buckeyes should look even better after a month to rest up, assuming they can then go 60 minutes without another devastating injury. On the other side of the ball, Georgia QB and Matlock aficionado Stetson Bennett has quietly rounded into a serviceable quarterback helming an efficient and effecting passing attack. But it's not built to take the top off the defense in the way that the Wolverines were able to have success. The thing about breaking in a new defense is it may take a few months or even an entire season to get your players on the same page, and the Buckeyes should look as sound as they have all year against the formidable Bulldog offense. I want so, so badly to pick Ohio State in this one. They match up well talent wise with Georgia, and their offense is built to give the Dawgs problems through the air. The underdog mentality serves them well, and much like in last year's Rose Bowl, this team will be desperate to get the bad taste of a bad loss out of their mouths, especially with a chance at redemption in so many ways awaiting them in the game to come (my pick above notwithstanding). No one (other than maybe Steve Sarkisian and Lincoln Riley) schemes up a juggernaut offense better than Ryan Day; just think about the hell that Ohio State rained down on Clemson both years (until red zone woes kneecapped them in 2019). But. Sigh. There's another issue at play here: focus and discipline, and not just from the players. Ever since the bye week, we have seen near-weekly breakdowns of play-calling and execution combining to grind the Buckeye attack to a halt for a quarter or more. The second quarter against Iowa. The second and third quarters against Penn State. Northwestern...OK, we'll ignore Northwestern. The second quarter against Maryland. And the second half (especially the third quarter) in the Buckeyes' last outing. Taking a quarter off is a recipe for disaster against a team as efficient and disciplined as Georgia. This is going to be a pull-your-hair-out kind of game, where the Buckeyes play well enough to win...most of the time. Then the false starts, the missed assignments, and the cutesy plays will dig the Bucks into a hole they can't escape. So passes the CJ Stroud/Jaxon Smith-Njigba era, and both deserved better. OSU: 24--UGA: 34

Schweinfurth: I have a hard time being positive about this Buckeyes team. These guys were sleep walking through the second half of the season and then played like they were trying to make diamonds in their butt holes. Here's the thing, if Day unleashes the offense and lets Stroud try to throw down field, this can be a winnable game. If Jaylen Carter shows up and gets pressure up the middle...Just think of what happened the last time the Bucks backed into the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, but the deck just feels too stacked in this one. OSU: 17--UGA: 35
Seeberg:  Given our proximity to Ohio State, I've heard a LOT of talk over the past few weeks about how the Buckeyes are easily the worst matchup for UGA of the 3 other playoff opponents.  While this is likely true, UGA is pretty much UM injected with the Captain America serum and that's not exactly a great matchup for the Buckeyes either.  I want SO desperately to see the Buckeyes attack BETWEEN THE G***AMN HASHES for once.  Show me crosses and posts and slants instead of everything having to be so precise and so lateral outside the numbers.  The Buckeyes' one legitimate shot in this game is that UGA, by design, doesn't bring pressure too often.  IF Stroud is clean all day and IF we can scheme something up like Clemson 2020 or Utah last year then this game is essentially a pick 'em.  Oh, AND we have to avoid the penalties that have plagued this squad all year AND figure out who on God's green earth will be running the ball AND stop sending 48 guys on blitzes and leaving our mediocre-tackling corners on islands.  IF that feels like a lot of IFs to you...you're right.  Here's one more IF.  IF I'm wrong, I'll be pleasantly surprised.  I do think this Buckeye team wins 3 times out of 10, but it just doesn't feel like this will be one of those 3.  Still, better odds than Endgame.  OSU: 31--UGA: 36

Week 14: No Pressure

 Standings:

1.) Hoying 40-20 (3-10 upset)
2.) Draper 39-21 (1-12 upset)

2.) Seeberg 39-21 (0-13 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 37-23 (6-7 upset)

Now this looks like a job for me
So everybody, just follow me
'Cause we need a little...controversy
'Cause it feels so empty without me

--Without Me, Marshall "Eminem" Mathers

Run-on sentences aside, Championship Saturday will feel a little empty without the Buckeyes for a second straight year, but Playoff controversy? Good luck keeping Ohio State out of that two years running. 

FRIDAY

Pac-12: Utah Utes vs. USC Trojans

Draper: USC has been riding high on their offensive firepower and the presumptive Heisman winner (who am I kidding...locked in Heisman winner), but one thing with Lincoln Riley teams: they're inconsistent.  The Trojans fired on all cylinders vs. ND with their defense and offensive line actually being decent, but I'm not sure they are stable enough to strike lightning twice.  Utah is the opposite with a team of stability.  Cam Rising is the right guy to run Whittingham's methodical offense while the Utah defense should mirror the good of Notre Dame.  Yes, Caleb Williams had himself a game against the Irish, but a few plays here or there could make the difference.  SC has lived off the turnover, so they could die off the turnover.  It's hard to win 2x against a team, but the Utes have championship experience.  The Trojans are due for an Oregon State game like clunker.  Go Utes.  Utah: 35--USC: 31

Hoying: I remember watching this game the first time and wondering how Utah was staying in it. Williams was on a tear, even back then, and I think the Utes made the right move to go for 2 after their last score because there was no way they were going to keep up with the SC offense forever. What's changed since then? The Trojans lost starting running back Travis Dye, but his backup Austin Jones has been ripping off 6 ypc in his absence. Utah lost their starting back Tavion Thomas, but they still have Micah "I play running back!" Bernard, and QB Cam Rising is a pretty significant part of the rushing attack himself. The Utes are deadly in the running game, which just so happens to be USC's kryptonite, and gives them an interesting wrinkle to change things up from their air assault that bested the Trojans in these teams' first meeting. We're not in Salt Lake City this time, but you know what they say: defense travels, and USC won't be bringing any with them to the meadows. Utah: 42--USC: 41
Schweinfurth: USC is an elite offense, and Caleb Williams will most likely win the Heisman. The problem is that USC's defense is still brutal. That game last week against Notre Dame would have been interesting if the Irish could have wrapped someone up. Utah is a tough out and has already beaten the Trojans once. Do they have that magic again? It is so hard to beat a team two times in a season. Really, I just don't see it. Trojans win in a shootout and give Williams his Heisman moment. Utah: 42--USC: 45

Seeberg:  As you can see by our collective records at Let's Go Bucks, it's been a tough season.  Putting a ton of effort in at this point is akin to treading water with a D+ until the final exam and then cramming the night before in hopes of a minor miracle.  With that said, here we go.  It's hard to beat a good team twice (see below), and Utah needed every last ounce of themselves to sneak out a win- at home- against these Trojans earlier this year.  On a neutral field with a playoff bid on the line, Lincoln Riley may make another Heisman winner out of his QB on this national stage that they have all to themselves Friday night.  Fight on to the CFP.  Utah: 31--USC: 41

SATURDAY

Big 12: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

Draper: Some may call me a homer and....yes, I'm a homer.  TCU has danced with the devil in the pale moonlight all year just like the 02 Buckeye team (one review, I see Hoying made the parallel before me but it's true).  They've won and you can't take it away from them.  Someday, the magic needs to run out.  I'm going with Sat. with Mr. Vaughn.  There's a rumor that Martinez may play, but I'm guessing it will be Will Howard.  If there isn't another collapse when down to the 3rd string QB, I think they can take care of business.  The key for KSU is preventing the big play with Quentin Johnston and slowing down the pass rush.  Let's go Cats.  KSU: 34--TCU: 30

Hoying: Another rematch, and I have vivid memories of Kansas State absolutely blowing TCU off the field in the first half even after starting QB Adrian Martinez (go Huskers) was knocked out. But then backup QB Will Howard ran out of steam and the Wildcats tried to white knuckle out a victory, and TCU's 2002 Ohio State-esque end of game voodoo put them in the driver's seat for the Big 12 regular season championship. To be fair, I can count on one hand the number of games TCU has won without either end of game nonsense or the luxury of playing a backup QB, but this time, the Wildcats are already ahead of the curse: backup Will Howard has been their guy for the better part of a month now. The Frogs have been improving over the course of the season, particularly on defense, but the way the first meeting between these teams ended has left a bad taste in the Wildcats' mouth that can only be washed clean in Horned Frog blood. KSU: 38--TCU: 28
Schweinfurth: Kansas State is healthy this time around and TCU seemed to get luck in the last game. The Horned Frogs have been living dangerously, and at some point it has to bite them. I'll take K-State here...I hope Hypnotoad doesn't find me. KSU: 38--TCU: 35

Seeberg:  It's hard to beat a good team twice (see above).  My barely educated (this season anyway it seems) guess is that it's even harder to beat a good team twice that you needed an injured starting quarterback- causing a second half shutout- to beat the first time around.  I have not been bullish all season on TCU and it's burned me a couple times.  Third time lucky, or unlucky in the case of the Horned Frogs.  KSU: 34--TCU: 26 

SEC: Louisiana State Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: I have no idea how the Tigahs are in the SEC championship, but here we are.  While an LSU win makes FSU the defacto SEC champion (look it up), I don't see it happening.  The faceplant against A&M ended all hope of the Tiger run to the playoff....and the Aggies are baaaaad.  Georgia has been living on defense, but they've been living well.  No reason to expect anything difference than the defending champs riding undefeated into the CFP.  LSU: 10--UGA: 20

Hoying: Brian Kelly has done a masterful job of elevating the LSU Tigers from last year's losing season to SEC West champions. That being said, this team has a hard ceiling on how far they can go. Yes, I said that before and it made me look stupid then, but I think that had more to do with the inconsistency of their opponent (Alabama) than LSU's potential. Georgia has looked like the nation's top team more or less all season, and while they don't really need this win in order to secure their Playoff hopes, I'm sure they'd love to avenge last year's SEC championship loss that ruined their perfect season. Jayden Daniels is special but he won't be able to solve the Bulldog defense. There may be only one quarterback who can...LSU: 20--UGA: 31
Schweinfurth: LSU was a nice story, until TAMU straight wrecked them. I have put absolutely zero thought into LSU as a top 10 team all year. Georgia should stop them. LSU: 14--UGA: 35

Seeberg:  So Texas A&M, winners of exactly 1 conference game this season, shellacked LSU last week.  This game really requires no further break down.  The 2022 edition of "Bama by a million" has arrived.  UGA by a million.  LSU: 13--UGA: 34

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Draper: Speaking of teams limping into championship week...  The only intrigue here is the AFLAC Trivia question about a game with two National Championship winning coaches (credit Draper).  Drake Maye is talked about as the second coming, but....meh.  The Tigers had their playoff hopes busted by a rival (sad face), but I don't know what to think.  Clemson is so used to checking the box to make the playoff that motivation may be an issue.  This would be huge for a resurgent UNC team that should come out firing.  I'm calling for the upset.  Clem: 27--UNC: 31

Hoying: A while ago I was rooting for Clemson to win week-to-week because I was hopeful they might snag a Playoff spot and Ohio State could get a chance to blast away on a hapless first-round opponent. Obviously the situation is a bit murkier now but one thing hasn't changed: Clemson isn't very good. DJ has ukuleled hard again, putting up an abysmal 9-29 for 99 yards against a South Carolina team that just got lit up by (but blew out) Tennessee the week prior. Much like a certain other Playoff perennial, their nagging flaws were all laid bare against their hated rival, but at least the Tigers kept it competitive. Of course, that was against the good Carolina. North Carolina has been sitting in the corner eating paste for a while, making USC's defense look like the 2000 Ravens, which means that they're probably going to make [insert Clemson QB here] look like Caleb Williams this week. There's always the risk of Drake Maye going off at any moment, but I think the Clemson D will rise up on enough possessions to put their offense in a position to press a rare advantage. Clem: 31--UNC: 27
Schweinfurth: So this is a game that is happening this week? Okay. DJ has looked better lately so I'll just take Clemson and move on. Clem: 28--UNC: 21

Seeberg:  Yikes.  This game is about as shiny as an antique, well-used spittoon.  Whispers of "Heisman" reached Drake Maye a couple weeks ago and he has absolutely pooped the bed since, losing to Georgia TECH and NC State in back-to-back weeks.  Clemson, meanwhile, ran into the sudden buzzsaw that is Spencer Rattler and South Carolina, losing AT HOME last week.  Sure weakens Notre Dame's resume (and, by extension, the Bucks').  Regardless, somebody technically has to win this one.  The talent advantage still lies with the Tigers, and I'm not sure what the give-a-damn level is for either team.  The Tar Heels aren't here often and may be more motivated, but I don't suspect that will be enough.  Orange and purple late.  Clem: 38--UNC: 27

Big Ten: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Draper: Here comes the Boilers.  Bring out the stat: Purdue has 9 wins as an unranked team vs. #2....2nd place has 4.  Is this a trap??? Possibly.  Michigan has nothing to play for here and Purdue is the snakebiter team playing near home. Regardless, consistency is the name of the game....and that's not Purdue.  If the Boilers hit the right spots, they could rock the Wolverines...but I don't see it.  Far more talent on the sun and blue side.  Michigan wins the B1G for the 2nd straight year to drop the natty to the Bucks.  Pur: 20--UM: 30

Hoying: Unlike last year's joke of a matchup, which was over before it began, this year's B1G championship might have a bit of intrigue for a quarter or so, if for no other reason than that the Wolverines continue to take the first halves off of their games. Purdue, unlike Iowa, can move the ball from time to time (except against Iowa), so we might get a chance to see what Michigan would have done had they found themselves trailing by two scores at any point last week. I'm also intrigued to see what the Wolverine offense looks like without Corum; Edwards looked like garbage until Ohio State brought out their "every play is 4th and 1" defense late in The Game, and they don't seem to have another great option at running back (unlike some Playoff contenders). The cat's out of the bag for McCarthy, too. He's not going to catch anyone off guard after last week, so he's going to have to Cardale Jones his way game after game at this point if Michigan wants to make any postseason noise. Here's to Purdue DC Ron English (!) learning from Jim Knowles's mistakes, and the Spoilermakers avenge their crushing opening season giveaway to Penn State by claiming their first Big Ten title since the days of Drew Brees (no need to share with Michigan this time). Pur: 27--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: Can I pass? Just seeing this game listed makes me ill. Purdue is going to throw the ball and do their Basketball on Grass thing. It will stay close, but Michigan is going to run over them late. I'm not watching this. Pur: 21--UM: 38

Seeberg:  Well, I hate to admit it but this one might actually be interesting.  Purdue's passing game is essentially Ohio State lite, with a decent-but-not-great QB and one-but-not-two elite wideout.  If Purdue actually throws it INSIDE THE F&%*ING NUMBERS they may hang with the mighty Wolverines, but it's hard to imagine either of the Boilermakers' line units hanging with UM for four quarters.  I expect this one to follow the typical Michigan script.  Close for a half, then an imposition of their will as the game winds down.  Sound familiar?  Bleh, I just threw up in my mouth a bit.  Pur: 20--UM: 38

A Sober Look at the Playoff Picture

Sigh...I was hoping I wouldn't have to do one of these this year. After spending every first Sunday in December from 2014 through 2018 on pins and needles waiting to hear the Buckeyes' Playoff fate, all we had to worry about in the first two years of the Day era was our seeding (no, Texas A&M was never, ever, ever getting in ahead of us). Unfortunately, like last year, something happened along the way. Unlike last year, the hitch may not be fatal this time. All we need to say about it for now is the Buckeyes suffered a convincing loss to a very good team.

Lost in the doomsday chatter among Buckeye Nation and the pointing and laughing from the rogues' gallery is the inconvenient truth that the Playoff still needs four teams to round out its field. It doesn't matter how good these teams are in an absolute sense: if there aren't four teams better than you out there, you're in. And though the list of contenders is somewhat thinner than in years past, we can safely assume that the four participants will be drawn from among the remaining 2-loss or fewer teams:

Undefeateds

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU

One-loss teams

1. USC
2. Ohio State

Two-loss teams

1. Alabama
2. Tennessee
3. Penn State
4. Clemson
5. Washington

The two-loss teams are mostly included here just for completeness's sake; even with maximum chaos this weekend we will have at least four teams with fewer than two losses. The Committee has never put a two-loss team in the Playoff so it would seem that we would need to see a two-loss team with an exceptional resume and a one-loss team with a flimsy one in order for a new precedent to be set. Are there any such two-loss teams? Certainly not Clemson or Washington: they sit at #13 and #18 in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and at #10 and #16 in the Massey College Football Ranking Composite, respectively. SP+ is intended to be a predictive measure of team quality while the Massey Composite aggregates the human polls, computer rankings, and other well known indices in a "wisdom of crowds" approach. Clemson's only quality win is over Florida State (#23/#15), and their two losses are to (a) the same Notre Dame (#35/#20) that USC and Ohio State comfortably dispatched and (b) South Carolina (#26/#23). Their ACC championship foe, North Carolina (#46/#29) isn't going to move the needle either; every other Playoff contender on this list has multiple wins better than this. Somehow, Washington didn't finish in the top two of the Pac-12, so they won't have a chance to boost their resume beyond their existing wins over Oregon (#12/#14) and Oregon State (#22/#17) and the worst loss among the Playoff contenders, to Arizona State (#82/#95!). You can go ahead and throw out Penn State (#8/#7) as well; they do have two forgivable losses to Michigan (#2/#2) and Ohio State (#3/#4) but their best win by far is over Minnesota (#16/#36). 

Alabama (#4/#5) and Tennessee (#5/#6) are a little closer to the conversation. Tennessee's loss to Georgia (#1/#1) is fine, although its loss to the aforementioned South Carolina will hold them back, while Alabama lost to LSU (#15/#12) and...Tennessee. The Committee must have really hated Tennessee's loss to South Carolina, because despite the Vols having wins over Alabama and the LSU team that handed Bama their other loss, Alabama started this week in the 7 spot while Tennessee was all the way down at 10. Of course, that could have a great deal to do with Tennessee losing erstwhile Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker; nobody wants to see Joe Milton in the Playoff. Regardless, we can glean a pretty big clue from the fact that Alabama was still a spot behind one-loss USC (#11/#8) last week, and that was before USC picked up another decent win over Notre Dame. Could Ohio State, with a sizable advantage according to the advanced stats (#3 in SP+) and overall value from the rankings landscape (#4 in Massey) compared to USC last week (#14/#10 at that point), fall past the Tide after this weekend's loss? I don't see it. Some will raise the "Alabama is two plays away from being undefeated!" argument, since the Tide lost to Tennessee on a last-second field goal and to LSU on a 2-point conversion. But the Tide are also three plays away from three additional losses to Texas, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, whereas the Buckeyes blew everyone away until, well, you know.

That leaves our group of five one-loss or fewer teams. USC is an easy mark to fall below Ohio State with a second loss this weekend to Utah (#10/#13), as that would put the Trojans at two losses with a worse resume than Alabama. However, I don't see the Buckeyes passing either Georgia or Michigan should either team lose this weekend. Michigan's resume top-to-bottom would actually be pretty similar to Ohio State's, swapping out one pretty bad loss (Purdue) for a superior quality win (guess who), but the head-to-head implications of The Game, as well as how that game played out, would be too much to ignore. As for Georgia, losing to LSU is worse than losing to Michigan, but their wins over Tennessee (#5/#6), Oregon (#12/#14), Mississippi State (#20/#18), South Carolina (#26/#23), and Kentucky (#25/#28) would crowd out Ohio State's wins over Penn State (#7/#8) and Notre Dame (#35/#20) (what's OSU's third best win? Maryland (#32/#44)? Iowa (#27/#45)?).

TCU is a more interesting case. From a resume standpoint, they're about dead even with Ohio State today, as evidenced by their superior Massey ranking but lagging SP+ rating. The Horned Frogs have deceptively good wins over Kansas State (#9/#9) and Texas (#7/#11), and the Kansas State win would only appreciate, oddly enough, if TCU were to lose this weekend. The Big 12 doesn't really have any clunker teams this year, as the worst team is either 5-7 West Virginia (#63/#63) or 4-8 Iowa State (#53/#65), about on par with Michigan State (#67/#66) who is far from the worst team in the Big Ten. TCU's out of conference schedule is atrocious (Colorado (#123/#117), Tarleton (FCS), and SMU (#56/#52)) but the thirteenth game against a quality Kansas State opponent would more than balance this out. I could see the Committee hesitating to punish TCU for playing that thirteenth game. But here's the thing. Everything I just said about the schedule and the relative strength of the Big 12 and the Big Ten was priced into last week's Playoff rankings. And the Committee still had Ohio State ranked #2 and TCU ranked #4. I find it hard to believe that Ohio State could subsequently go out and lose to Michigan, and TCU lose to Kansas State, and the Committee to suddenly change their mind and go with TCU as the better team, extra win over Iowa State be damned. Neither team would have a conference championship tiebreaker and Ohio State would undoubtedly have the edge in the advanced stats and computer rankings once again (the Buckeyes were #2/#2 in last week's rankings, as compared to #7/#4 for TCU). And there's precedent for precisely this situation. In 2017, undefeated #4 Wisconsin lost to two-loss #8 Ohio State, and both were subsequently left out of the Playoff in favor of one-loss #5 Alabama, who had been idle on championship weekend. TCU's had their share of close shaves this season, while Ohio State's 11 wins have each come by double digits. I don't think the Horned Frogs are safe with a loss, except perhaps by the very slimmest of margins, and only if the Committee really decides to knock the Buckeyes down a peg for losing to Michigan by multiple scores. A 22 point loss is ugly on paper, although The Game was reasonably close before the Buckeye defense started going for broke and Donovan Edwards happily complied. If TCU loses by 20+, it won't be a tough decision.

On a side note, the most objectively hilarious outcome would be for USC to win but TCU to lose. The Horned Frogs would then likely miss out on the Playoff in favor of Ohio State again, but for the exact opposite reason as in 2014. After the Committee ranked both Baylor and TCU behind the Buckeyes in 2014, in part because neither Big 12 co-champion had a conference championship game victory to compete with OSU's 59-0 shellacking of Wisconsin, the Big 12 decided to add a pointless conference championship game to wrap up their round robin season. This worked in the conference's favor in 2018, when Oklahoma got a chance to avenge their loss to Texas and barely hold off Ohio State (and Georgia) for the #4 spot. But this season, it could just as easily cost TCU a spot they'd already have in the bag in a simple round-robin 12 game season. Remember 1998 Kansas Staaaaate...