Not Dead Yet

Hope is a cruel mistress.

Yesterday, after I watched The Game with my in-laws in St. Louis, I made the long, boring trip back down I-70 to Columbus. By the time I reached Indianapolis, the Spartans had already killed the Nittany Lions (no surprise), so I spared a wistful glance towards Lucas Oil Stadium, knowing I wouldn't be returning to cheer on the Bucks for a third straight year.

The Buckeyes won't be Big Ten Champions this season. But could a larger goal still be within reach? After all, both the 2001 and 2011 seasons featured teams that didn't win their divisions yet still made it to the championship (Nebraska in 2001, Alabama in 2011), and 2003 featured a conference championship loser (Oklahoma).

Ohio State entered the weekend ranked #8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. They then scored a blowout road win against #10 Michigan. #6 Notre Dame and #7 Baylor fell, and both are a lock to fall past the Bucks. Notre Dame has no more chances to pad their resume, while Baylor has only a game against Texas, which isn't likely to move any needles, especially now that the Bears have 2 losses. This leaves only 5 teams ahead of the Buckeyes, 4 of which play again next week.

THE TEAMS AHEAD

Only #3 Oklahoma, who completed their pre-bowl season with a win over #11 Oklahoma State, is a total lock for the playoffs at this point. #4 Iowa and #5 Michigan State play each other. A loss by the Spartans would give them 2 losses and surely drop them past Ohio State. The Hawkeyes might be a trickier out, but if MSU crushes them, the Committee would likely compare such a loss to OSU's 17-14 squeaker and move the Buckeyes ahead.

That gets the Buckeyes up to at least #5. What of the other two teams currently ranked ahead of OSU?

Even with the ridiculous deference the committee has paid to #2 Alabama this season, it's hard to imagine them staying ahead of Ohio State with 2 losses should they fall to Florida next week. Clemson, if they lost to North Carolina, would be a tougher case. Wins over Notre Dame and Florida State would be tough to ignore, particularly compared to Ohio State's wins over Michigan and...Penn State? But it would be a very late loss to a team nobody seems to have any respect for. Can we really say that Clemson is really bulletproof at this point?

THE TEAMS BEHIND

So a Florida win over Alabama or a North Carolina win over Clemson could at least open the door ahead of Ohio State in the playoff rankings. Do they need to worry about getting caught from behind?

#9 Stanford scored a win over #5 Notre Dame, but it's tough to see them jumping Ohio State this week given Ohio State's dismantling of a top ten team. However, a win over USC next week would give the Cardinal a conference championship, even if the USC win itself wouldn't really help Stanford all that much (Stanford beat USC this season already). Ohio State's loss is better than either of Stanford's, but this race would be very, very close.

#10 Michigan, #11 Oklahoma State, and #12 Florida all lost. Florida gets a chance at redemption next week against Alabama, and a win in that game would be huge, but it's terribly difficult to imagine Florida ending up in the Committee's top 4 after the November they've had.

The only other Power 5 team in the mix is #14 North Carolina. But they don't yet have a win over a team with fewer than 4 losses and their loss is to 3-9 South Carolina. I really don't see the Committee moving UNC ahead of OSU even with a win over Clemson.


Summary:
Depending on how much the Committee weighs conference championships, Ohio State may still be very much alive in the title hunt. The surest path requires only a Florida win over Alabama (and maybe a USC win over Stanford, just to be safe), but a North Carolina win over Clemson might do the trick as well. Neither is terribly likely, but stranger things have happened to send OSU to the Playoff before. Missing out is not an option, so plan accordingly.