Friday, October 10, 2025

Week 7: The Playoff Gatekeeper

Standings:

1.) Hoying 19-5 (1-5 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 18-6 (0-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (2-4 upset)
3.) Draper 16-8 (1-5 upset)

Some of us at Let's Go Bucks! have expressed concern about the effects of Playoff expansion on the importance of the regular season. The effect has been undeniable, though it has now twice allowed the Buckeyes to win national championships despite suffering losses to terrible opponents that would have otherwise knocked them out of title contention. Well, here we are in Week 7, and for several of the nation's top teams, a win this week would all but guarantee them a Playoff berth absent a string of bizarre upsets down the stretch. 

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers
Draper: Bama seems to be getting their sea-legs and taking back the throne.  Yeah, the score of the Vandy game made it look like a bigger blowout than it was, but they fought through the beginning onslaught and grabbed control in the second half (and Vandy is actually good).  I honestly know very little to nothing about the Tigers other than Beau Pribula is the QB (and PSU is lamenting his departure). Ty Simpson could very easily grab control of a very fractured Heisman race with a big Tide win, but I don't think this is a blowout.  Mizzou is a decent team and it's tough to go into Columbia.  Regardless, the Tide feels somewhat inevitable once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.  Bama: 30--Mizz: 20
Hoying:
Is it possible to win a game by multiple scores and still feel gross afterwards? The Tide ran off 23 straight points after Vanderbilt went up 14-7 almost (but not quite) right before half, but it was still kind of a troubling win for Alabama. Life hasn't exactly been easy for Missouri either, having to weather a big first quarter from Kansas and rally in the 4th quarter against South Carolina, both at home. Bama can't run the ball worth a lick but that won't really matter against the Tigers, as both the Jayhawks and the Gamecocks buttered their bread through the air against Missouri, and Tide QB Ty Simpson is making a midseason push for the Heisman (so long as voters continue to ignore anyone in Scarlet and Gray). Bama's defense has been a little suspect in the red zone and on late downs, but I still don't think the Tigers will be able to score enough to keep up with them. Bama: 27--Mizz: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama slayed the Vandy beast. Seriously, that was a thing last year. Is that enough to halt the upstart Tigers? Maybe. Mizzou is one of those teams I will pick against until the prove me otherwise. Bama wins...close. Bama: 21--Mizz: 20
Seeberg: Bama’s not-as-hard-as-SEC-homers-want-you-to-believe-but-still-tough schedule continues on the road this time. Vandy wasn’t last year’s version, and this Bama team isn’t last years either, but in a better way. Mizzou has played nobody but handled their business, led by the nation’s leading rusher in Ahmad Hardy. Bama would rather air it out with Ty and Ryan Williams (despite a ton of drops). Other than the Oklahoma game on the Tide’s schedule I think they win out, but this is a tricky matchup. Hey, at least one Penn State QB is playing well. Mizzou grinds the clock and gets the big time W. Bama: 20—Mizz: 24

Indiana Hoosiers @ Oregon Ducks
Draper: I have no idea what to think here.  I have doubted IU for the entire Cignetti era and he keeps making me look stupid (except in the Shoe--Google it).  I've also heard about the absolute monster that Lanning has built with the Ducks...but I doubt that as well.  The huge win at the PSU White Out has certainly lost its luster after hapless UCLA with a new coaching staff didn't need 2OT to embarrass Franklin and Co.  I do think the Ducks are solid, and that Moore is able to orchestrate the offense well...but MENDOZA has the Hoosiers clicking at a super high level (Iowa outstanding).  What's missed here is that the IU defense has some players on it as well (as seen in their demolishing of Illinois).  All this leads to a very boring conclusion: teams just don't go into Eugene and win big games (see 2024 OSU).  The environment is going to be nuts which will be the difference in a (surprisingly) low scoring Duck victory.  Ind: 20--Oregon: 27 (AFLAC trivia answer before the game: Who was the last B1G Team to beat Oregon in Eugene? Answer: Indiana)
Hoying:
Depending on how the Indiana - Penn State game plays out, this could, no joke, be the biggest regular season game of the year. Indiana hasn't lost a step from their head-turning breakout season last year, running up 63 on Illinois before surviving the sandwich of all sandwich games last week at the place where promising seasons go to die, Kinnick Stadium. Win this one, and suddenly nobody cares that you played three wet sacks of paint during the nonconference slate: you get five more wet sacks of Big Ten paint and Penn State, and 11-1 almost assuredly gets you back to the Playoff. Of course, their opponent is no slouch either. The Ducks are also keeping pace with last year's maiden voyage through the Big Ten, and now the script brings another contender from the Eastern Time Zone to Autzen for a monster midseason matchup. I do not think that 2025 Indiana is as good as 2024 Ohio State was (probably no team except for 2025 Ohio State is), but if you remember the knife's edge that last year's game turned on, you'd be forgiven for thinking the Hoosiers have a real live chance to win this one and seize control of the Big Ten. And the advanced stats would agree; the closest that either of these teams has to a weakness is a slight softness in Oregon's run defense. That's bad news against an Indiana team that put up 312 on the ground against the Illini (hello, Bo Jackson), but the Hoosiers only averaged 2.7 yards per carry against upset-minded Iowa. Ultimately, I think this one comes down to the environment. Strange things have happened when Big Ten teams have had to cross multiple time zones this season, with Ohio State strangling Washington and Oregon escaping Penn State being the outliers. The x-factor of travel and the Autzen environment do just enough to put the Ducks ahead and on pace for another possible 12-0 season. Ind: 31--Ore: 32
Schweinfurth: I guess we finally get to figure out if these teams are for real. I still have questions about Indiana, but they have passed all of their tests to this point. Oregon has looked the part. They haven't missed a beat after losing Gabriel to the *checks notes* Browns...Anyway. I see this as a shoot out. I have questions about the Hoosier defense, and I think Oregon's D was bailed out by the Franklin/Allar tandem. Take the west cost team at home on these. IU: 38--Ore: 42
Seeberg: A year and a half into Cignetti’s IU program and his only two losses are still to the champs and runners up last year. He might get them to the playoff again before he bolts for Penn State or Florida. Regardless, a trip out to Eugene is always tough, especially when your star WR gets a bogus PI call late in the 4th. Moore and Mendoza can spin it and IU has legit talent: 5 of the top 125 prospects in next year’s draft according to a comprehensive list I saw earlier this week. That same list showed EIGHT Ducks in the top 150. IU is good, not just smoke and mirrors, but it’s just not enough to win at Austen. Ducks late. IU: 27—Ore: 37

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: Texas is in trouble, folks.  It's not just the losses, but how they have looked.  I've watched a few Longhorn games and they simply aren't a sound consistent team.  Missed assignments, dropped passes, Arch looking like he needs his Warby Parker glasses to see his receivers....this list goes on.  However, this is a rivalry to 'throw out the record books'.  For another wildcard, John Mateer is planning on returning to lead the Sooner offense after hand surgery when this seemed a total pipe dream a few weeks ago.  Of all the units on the field, the Sooner defense is legit.  Texas has actually faced 2 really good defenses this year....and lost to both.  The question remains about Mateer's hand and the ability of the Longhorn defense to wreak havoc.  I would not be surprised if Texas comes out and rights the ship here, but the spiral is real.  This is the death knell if they can't pull it off, and a last seond FG seals their fate.  OU: 20--UT: 17
Hoying:
So Texas is unranked 6 weeks after starting the season at #1. Big deal, week 7 rankings mean about as much as the preseason variety. What's more important is that Texas is running out of opportunities to impress the Playoff Committee, although with their schedule there's a chance they'll get a crack at 4 teams in or around the top 5 before the regular season is out. The Sooners, meanwhile, are riding high and might even get their QB John Mateer back for the Red River Shootout. Mateer may be a bit overrated (was he really any better than Jackson Arnold the day the Sooners beat Auburn?) but nowhere near the flop that Arch Manning has produced through his first 5 games. And you can't even point to the Texas defense saving the day in this one; Texas gave up 29 points to DJ Lagway after Oklahoma put Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines in a blender a few weeks ago. I don't see a reason for Oklahoma not to win this one walking away. OU: 27--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Can we officially say Arch was crowned too soon? I think so. Oklahoma looks to be a very good team. More so than the Longhorns. This is the Red River Shootout, so expect the unexpected. Except Oklahoma wins. Maybe Arch actually looks competent? That would be unexpected. OU: 35--UT: 27
Seeberg: Is Mateer playing? Has Arch been replaced by a cyborg bent on the destruction of Texas? To answer both:  Of course not…but maybe? Texas can’t really block for Arch who now sidearms every other throw. Colin Simmons has 0 sacks against P4 opponents and, not coincidentally, the Longhorns have 0 wins against said competition. OU, meanwhile, lists Mateer as probable?? I’ll believe it when I see it. Either way, they are trotting out the #2 defense in America (behind only your Silver Bullets). These factors all lead me to believe this so-called shootout will look more akin to Tressel-ball. OU has the talent to thwart Arch and Co like the Bucks did, and if Mateer does get healthy they are undoubtedly the SEC’s best chance at reclaiming the throne. OU: 20—UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Southern California Trojans
Draper: There are so many teams I feel like I can't get a grip on this year.  USC has been Jekyll and Hyde with explosive offense...until the first 3 quarters vs Illinois (the comeback was real until their defense pooped the bed).  TTUN is even more confusing with a freshman phenom that is solid in the run game but looks clueless in the passing game.  The bread and butter for the Wolverines is Justice Haynes and the running game, but this defense in SoCal is serviceable (I won't say 'good').  Makai Lemon is an explosive receiver for the Trojans that should keep a good (not great) UM defense guessing.  Michigan had to fight at home to take down the Badgers who simply are not good. If SC can limit the explosive running plays and stay on schedule offensively, they will grab control.  So long a Riley stays out of his own way, Maiava gets a nice ranked win in the B1G and sends the Wolverines home crying.  UM: 20--USC: 23
Hoying:
Indiana - Oregon may be the biggest game of the week, but this one may be the most intriguing. For four weeks, USC looked like they might have the pieces in place to make a deep run in the Playoff, and then the defense didn't get off the bus against Illinois. It's not like the Trojans were particularly stifling before their ill-fated trip to Champaign, and they did still put up 32 points to briefly take the lead late, but suddenly this is starting to look like the same old USC, with a brilliant offense being sabotaged by another unreliable defense. At least they can't blame Alex Grinch this time. That being said, this game is in LA, and Bryce Underwood has been doing his best Davis Warren impression in Michigan's road games this year, leading to an ugly loss to Oklahoma and a close win against Nebraska. I expect this game to look very much like last year's version, with Michigan bashing their heads against the wall again and again and USC staying in control only to the extent they decide not to do something idiotic. I honestly have no idea if Lincoln Riley has the self restraint needed not to throw this one away. But there'll be no friendly Michigan crowd coming to the rescue with their horrendous rendition of a basement dumpster-tier pop song. Trojans keep their Playoff hopes alive until the 1-2 punch of Notre Dame and Oregon finish them off for good. USC: 27--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I can't read either of these teams. USC had their chance against Illinois, but pooped themselves pretty spectacularly. I don't know what to think of the Wolverines. They are getting better, but I still have questions. West coast team man. USC: 21--UM: 17
Seeberg: Man I hate picking games like this…and not just because the cheaters and best are involved. It’s classic strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. The Trojans had 490 yards of offense against the soon-to-be-mentioned Illini…yet still lost because they gave up over 500 yards. On offense, I don’t trust UM’s so-called WRs to do much, but Justice Haynes is for real and should have a big day. Can Maiava and Lemon make enough plays for USC to stay in it? Sure. Win it? I sure hope so, but sadly this feels a lot like last year’s game: a game you think UM should lose, but USC finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bleh. UM: 23—USC: 20

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: The Buckeyes had a tall mountain to climb this offseason after losing an entire team to the NFL last year, but it hasn't made the difference that exodus traditionally produces.  Sayin has been efficient, the receivers remain elite, the running game is emerging under Bo Jackson, and the defense remains a force.  Going on the road to Illinois was circled (along with the trip to Seattle) as the 2 potential trap games.  Washington faced the wrath of this defense and I expect more in Champaign.  Day likes to keep things close to the vest in games like this.  Don't be dumb, let the talent shine, leave with a victory.  While I don't expect fireworks on offense, the Illini showed some real question marks in their (lack of) tackling, especially vs. IU. Altmyer is a strong senior QB but we don't know which version will appear.  If he's on (like vs. SC), the defense will have to step up to the plate.  If he's off (like IU),...uh oh.  I think he'll be in the middle, but Feagin will have nightmares about Downs (Heisman talk please?), Styles, and Reese.  I was nervous about this game until I saw how well the young Buckeyes weathered the storm in Seattle.  Road games are never easy, but in Bo we trust.  OSU: 37--Ill: 10
Hoying:
I have been reserving judgment on the 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes. Outside of the season opener, which was very unusual for several reasons, the Buckeyes haven't been sufficiently tested for me to award them the crown or the jester's cap. After all, the 2019 Ohio State Buckeyes might have been the greatest team in program history, and after obliterating some good-to-great teams along the way, they failed to rise to the occasion against the first elite team they faced. Illinois is not an elite team. They're a good, possibly very good team, certainly better than the -53 differential they put up against the Hoosiers a couple of weeks ago. But the problem is, they don't have any strengths to exploit. Oh, Luke Altmyer has done some damage through the air this season? Take a look at what Ohio State just did to Demond Williams and Drake Lindsey, both pretty decent QBs. The Illini defense is a horror show; they haven't given up 63 points since the Bloomington Beatdown but they did surrender 32 and 27 points in wins against USC and Purdue. Ohio State has six losses in the prior three seasons: two were games where the Buckeye offense was flummoxed against elite D-line play for 60 minutes straight, and the other four were against teams who spent time during the season ranked #1 or #2. Illinois is not going to be ranked in the top two this year. This is not a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung. I still don't know how good this team is, but if they can get out of Champaign with another single-digit performance by the Silver Bullets, the next six games become Day's personal playtime to get whatever pieces he wants in place before another Playoff run. Bucks win big, again. OSU: 37--Ill: 10
Schweinfurth: Illinois has looked okay so far, except for that blowout against...Indiana. This game IS Illinois' season at this point. Champaign has always been rough on the Bucks. All that wind. Every. Year. Day has this offense building towards something special again. I don't know if Bert has the answers to stop this offense. The fake to Smith and bomb to Tate showed how hard it is to stop the Bucks offense. The Silver Bullets look the part. They are so well coached and rally to the ball so quick. This should be over by the start of the fourth quarter, but we have seen stranger things. OSU: 35--Ill: 9
Seeberg: Did you know the last 5 ranked meetings between these 2 have all been won by Illinois? Hard to remember because it’s been 25 years since the first of those 5 took place but still crazy. That’s about the only stat in the Illini’s favor in this one. For those unaware, they rank 119th in pass defense (a mere 115 spots behind OSU), and Day just started to unleash Julian last week. Even Purdue managed 27 points against them last week. I do think this is the week that someone FINALLY scores double digits against us, with a TD likely in garbage time or on a scripted drive that somebody finally manages to pay off. Either way, start fast to get the home crowd subdued, stick it to Bert with a couple of bombs to JJ, and get out of there. OSU: 38—Ill: 13

Upset Special
Draper: Florida over A&M
Hoying:
Kansas over Texas Tech
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Tennessee
Seeberg: NW over Penn State (jk…can you imagine though??) UCF over Cincinnati