Back into the Playoffs?

For the first time since September 2014, Ohio State lost. And despite only falling by 3 points, they looked bad doing it. From the reactions by the loyal fan base, you'd think this team had fallen out of bowl eligibility, let alone championship contention. However, is it possible that OSU, a team that doesn't even control its own destiny to win its own division, could find a way into the playoffs for a second straight year?

Surprisingly, yes. And it's not really that far-fetched.

Forget the rankings for now. It doesn't matter how far Ohio State falls or how many teams are ahead of them at this point. We saw last year how fluid the Playoff Commitee's rankings are, even during the final week. Keep your eye on the teams that could or would finish ahead of the Buckeyes when the dust has settled.

Obviously, Ohio State will have the most chances to impress the committee if they get back to Indianapolis first. Is that still possible? Yes. All it takes is a Buckeye win over That Team Up North and a Michigan State loss to Penn State next weekend. Unlikely? Sure. But not unheard if in a year chock full of upsets already.

If Ohio State beats Michigan and backs into the B1G title game, they'll face a (likely) undefeated Iowa. A win there gives them the following resume:

a neutral field win over 12-1 Iowa
a win at 9-3 Michigan
a home win over 8-4 Penn State
a home win over likely MAC champion Northern Illinois
a home loss to 10-2 (and likely still top 10) Michigan State
a POWER 5 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (which the Committee has repeatedly said is a big, big deal)

In order for this version of Ohio State to miss the playoffs, they'd need 4 teams to finish ahead of them. Let's start with the obvious teams that would likely finish ahead of 12-1 Ohio State:

1. ACC Champion 13-0 Clemson
2. SEC Champion 12-1 Alabama or Florida

Both of these would be no-brainers. But we need two more to relegate Ohio State to the Rose Bowl.

3. 1-loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Baylor? Hard to say. Oklahoma State and Baylor would have resumes remarkably similar to Ohio State's, but with a worse non-conference schedule and without the added benefit of a 13th game. Oklahoma would have better wins but a real anchor of a loss (especially if Texas loses out, which they probably will). If Ohio State blasts Iowa 59-0 (hold your laughter until the end), don't be surprised if the Buckeyes jumped the Big 12 champion.

4. Whence comes the 4th? Not from the Pac-12, whose champion will have, at best, 2 losses. Let's consider 11-1 Notre Dame, which would have:

a win at likely Pac-12 champion 9-3 Stanford
a win at home over possible AAC champion 12-1 Navy
a win at 10-2 Temple
a win at 9-3 Pittsburgh
a win vs. (probably 7-5 but possible 9-4 Pac-12 champion) USC
a loss at probable #1 Clemson

Notre Dame would have the better loss and better overall wins, Ohio State would have the better top win and a conference title. Not a slam dunk for ND even with all the love the committee's given them to this point.

So if Michigan State does lose next week and Ohio State manages to win out, all they need is the slightest bit of chaos to befall the Big 12 champion, Notre Dame, Clemson, or the SEC champion.

It's unlikely to happen to the Big 12 champ. After last night, the Big 12 champion can't have fewer than one loss, and unless the champ is Oklahoma, that loss will have been against a pretty good team. As stated above, the Buckeyes might jump the Big 12 champion on resume alone (can't imagine that ever happening), but it's best to look for chaos elsewhere.

The scenario plays out most cleanly if Notre Dame loses to Stanford. Done.

Clemson poses an interesting puzzle. A loss to awful awful South Carolina would be devastating (just ask North Carolina), especially so late in the year. However, a win over North Carolina might mitigate that, particularly if the Notre Dame win holds up. On the other hand, if Clemson loses to North Carolina, they're done, likely taking the ACC's playoff hopes with them. No way the committee puts a 1-loss conference runner-up Clemson ahead of a 1-loss conference champion Ohio State. And North Carolina wouldn't compare favorably with Ohio State either (comparable top win, flimsier overall schedule, AWFUL loss).

As for the SEC, if Alabama loses to Auburn and Ole Miss wins the SEC, they don't go to the playoff. If Florida loses to Florida State and wins the SEC title, they don't go to the playoff (LSU loss is quickly going into the tank and the wins aren't particularly good). The most interesting question arises if Alabama loses to Auburn, Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State, and Alabama beats Florida. Does an SEC champion Alabama with 2 bad losses stay ahead of a 12-1 Big Ten Champion Ohio State? I would say "probably not," but the debates would be fierce, especially at SECSPN.


In summary, Ohio State no longer controls its destiny, but all that it needs to return to the playoff is (1) Michigan State to lose to Penn State, and (2) basically any other playoff contender to trip and fall on its face. And the Bucks might not even need #2 if they collect enough style points over the next two weeks to pass the Big 12 champion or Notre Dame. Compare this to 2007, when Ohio State needed 2 of LSU, West Virginia, and the Kansas/Missouri winner to lose in order to reach the BCS National Championship. And all 3 lost. In a year marked by the most big upsets since that crazy season, it's not too much to ask for 2 more.

And shhhh, but do you want to join me for the really crazy part?

Ohio State might not need Michigan State to lose this weekend either.

Consider the following delusional mishmash.

Ohio State beats the enemy.
Iowa crushes Michigan State in the B1G title game.
USC beats UCLA, then beats Stanford in the Pac-12 title game.
Oklahoma blasts Oklahoma State.
Baylor loses to TCU or Texas.
Clemson loses to South Carolina.
North Carolina loses to NC State and beats Clemson in the ACC title game.
Florida loses to Florida State.
Alabama loses to Auburn.
Ole Miss beats Mississippi State and beats Florida in the SEC title game.

Such mayhem would produce this list of playoff contenders:

13-0 (or 12-1) B1G Champ Iowa
11-1 Big 12 Champ Oklahoma
11-2 ACC Champ North Carolina
10-3 SEC Champ Ole Miss
9-4 Pac-12 Champ USC
11-2 Clemson
11-2 Michigan State
10-2 Alabama
10-2 Oklahoma State
10-2 (or 9-3) Baylor
10-2 (or 9-3) TCU
10-2 Notre Dame
10-3 Florida
10-3 Stanford
Group of 5 teams, none of which is undefeated

I see two teams on that list that obviously get in over 11-1 Ohio State. I'm not sure I see four.

Buckle up, Buckeye Nation. We could be in for a wild finish. But most importantly, make sure you BEAT BLUE!