A Sober Look at the Playoff Picture

Sigh...I was hoping I wouldn't have to do one of these this year. After spending every first Sunday in December from 2014 through 2018 on pins and needles waiting to hear the Buckeyes' Playoff fate, all we had to worry about in the first two years of the Day era was our seeding (no, Texas A&M was never, ever, ever getting in ahead of us). Unfortunately, like last year, something happened along the way. Unlike last year, the hitch may not be fatal this time. All we need to say about it for now is the Buckeyes suffered a convincing loss to a very good team.

Lost in the doomsday chatter among Buckeye Nation and the pointing and laughing from the rogues' gallery is the inconvenient truth that the Playoff still needs four teams to round out its field. It doesn't matter how good these teams are in an absolute sense: if there aren't four teams better than you out there, you're in. And though the list of contenders is somewhat thinner than in years past, we can safely assume that the four participants will be drawn from among the remaining 2-loss or fewer teams:

Undefeateds

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. TCU

One-loss teams

1. USC
2. Ohio State

Two-loss teams

1. Alabama
2. Tennessee
3. Penn State
4. Clemson
5. Washington

The two-loss teams are mostly included here just for completeness's sake; even with maximum chaos this weekend we will have at least four teams with fewer than two losses. The Committee has never put a two-loss team in the Playoff so it would seem that we would need to see a two-loss team with an exceptional resume and a one-loss team with a flimsy one in order for a new precedent to be set. Are there any such two-loss teams? Certainly not Clemson or Washington: they sit at #13 and #18 in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and at #10 and #16 in the Massey College Football Ranking Composite, respectively. SP+ is intended to be a predictive measure of team quality while the Massey Composite aggregates the human polls, computer rankings, and other well known indices in a "wisdom of crowds" approach. Clemson's only quality win is over Florida State (#23/#15), and their two losses are to (a) the same Notre Dame (#35/#20) that USC and Ohio State comfortably dispatched and (b) South Carolina (#26/#23). Their ACC championship foe, North Carolina (#46/#29) isn't going to move the needle either; every other Playoff contender on this list has multiple wins better than this. Somehow, Washington didn't finish in the top two of the Pac-12, so they won't have a chance to boost their resume beyond their existing wins over Oregon (#12/#14) and Oregon State (#22/#17) and the worst loss among the Playoff contenders, to Arizona State (#82/#95!). You can go ahead and throw out Penn State (#8/#7) as well; they do have two forgivable losses to Michigan (#2/#2) and Ohio State (#3/#4) but their best win by far is over Minnesota (#16/#36). 

Alabama (#4/#5) and Tennessee (#5/#6) are a little closer to the conversation. Tennessee's loss to Georgia (#1/#1) is fine, although its loss to the aforementioned South Carolina will hold them back, while Alabama lost to LSU (#15/#12) and...Tennessee. The Committee must have really hated Tennessee's loss to South Carolina, because despite the Vols having wins over Alabama and the LSU team that handed Bama their other loss, Alabama started this week in the 7 spot while Tennessee was all the way down at 10. Of course, that could have a great deal to do with Tennessee losing erstwhile Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker; nobody wants to see Joe Milton in the Playoff. Regardless, we can glean a pretty big clue from the fact that Alabama was still a spot behind one-loss USC (#11/#8) last week, and that was before USC picked up another decent win over Notre Dame. Could Ohio State, with a sizable advantage according to the advanced stats (#3 in SP+) and overall value from the rankings landscape (#4 in Massey) compared to USC last week (#14/#10 at that point), fall past the Tide after this weekend's loss? I don't see it. Some will raise the "Alabama is two plays away from being undefeated!" argument, since the Tide lost to Tennessee on a last-second field goal and to LSU on a 2-point conversion. But the Tide are also three plays away from three additional losses to Texas, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, whereas the Buckeyes blew everyone away until, well, you know.

That leaves our group of five one-loss or fewer teams. USC is an easy mark to fall below Ohio State with a second loss this weekend to Utah (#10/#13), as that would put the Trojans at two losses with a worse resume than Alabama. However, I don't see the Buckeyes passing either Georgia or Michigan should either team lose this weekend. Michigan's resume top-to-bottom would actually be pretty similar to Ohio State's, swapping out one pretty bad loss (Purdue) for a superior quality win (guess who), but the head-to-head implications of The Game, as well as how that game played out, would be too much to ignore. As for Georgia, losing to LSU is worse than losing to Michigan, but their wins over Tennessee (#5/#6), Oregon (#12/#14), Mississippi State (#20/#18), South Carolina (#26/#23), and Kentucky (#25/#28) would crowd out Ohio State's wins over Penn State (#7/#8) and Notre Dame (#35/#20) (what's OSU's third best win? Maryland (#32/#44)? Iowa (#27/#45)?).

TCU is a more interesting case. From a resume standpoint, they're about dead even with Ohio State today, as evidenced by their superior Massey ranking but lagging SP+ rating. The Horned Frogs have deceptively good wins over Kansas State (#9/#9) and Texas (#7/#11), and the Kansas State win would only appreciate, oddly enough, if TCU were to lose this weekend. The Big 12 doesn't really have any clunker teams this year, as the worst team is either 5-7 West Virginia (#63/#63) or 4-8 Iowa State (#53/#65), about on par with Michigan State (#67/#66) who is far from the worst team in the Big Ten. TCU's out of conference schedule is atrocious (Colorado (#123/#117), Tarleton (FCS), and SMU (#56/#52)) but the thirteenth game against a quality Kansas State opponent would more than balance this out. I could see the Committee hesitating to punish TCU for playing that thirteenth game. But here's the thing. Everything I just said about the schedule and the relative strength of the Big 12 and the Big Ten was priced into last week's Playoff rankings. And the Committee still had Ohio State ranked #2 and TCU ranked #4. I find it hard to believe that Ohio State could subsequently go out and lose to Michigan, and TCU lose to Kansas State, and the Committee to suddenly change their mind and go with TCU as the better team, extra win over Iowa State be damned. Neither team would have a conference championship tiebreaker and Ohio State would undoubtedly have the edge in the advanced stats and computer rankings once again (the Buckeyes were #2/#2 in last week's rankings, as compared to #7/#4 for TCU). And there's precedent for precisely this situation. In 2017, undefeated #4 Wisconsin lost to two-loss #8 Ohio State, and both were subsequently left out of the Playoff in favor of one-loss #5 Alabama, who had been idle on championship weekend. TCU's had their share of close shaves this season, while Ohio State's 11 wins have each come by double digits. I don't think the Horned Frogs are safe with a loss, except perhaps by the very slimmest of margins, and only if the Committee really decides to knock the Buckeyes down a peg for losing to Michigan by multiple scores. A 22 point loss is ugly on paper, although The Game was reasonably close before the Buckeye defense started going for broke and Donovan Edwards happily complied. If TCU loses by 20+, it won't be a tough decision.

On a side note, the most objectively hilarious outcome would be for USC to win but TCU to lose. The Horned Frogs would then likely miss out on the Playoff in favor of Ohio State again, but for the exact opposite reason as in 2014. After the Committee ranked both Baylor and TCU behind the Buckeyes in 2014, in part because neither Big 12 co-champion had a conference championship game victory to compete with OSU's 59-0 shellacking of Wisconsin, the Big 12 decided to add a pointless conference championship game to wrap up their round robin season. This worked in the conference's favor in 2018, when Oklahoma got a chance to avenge their loss to Texas and barely hold off Ohio State (and Georgia) for the #4 spot. But this season, it could just as easily cost TCU a spot they'd already have in the bag in a simple round-robin 12 game season. Remember 1998 Kansas Staaaaate...

Week 13: Best Served Cold

Standings:

1.) Hoying 39-17 (3-9 upset)
1.) Draper 39-17 (1-11 upset)

3.) Seeberg 38-18 (0-12 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 37-19 (5-7 upset)

The Playoff picture and various conference races continue to sharpen, but you'll forgive us for having an incurable case of tunnel vision this week. They ruined our streak. They torpedoed our season. They insulted our coach. And, inexplicably, they went out of their way to shit on our quarterback and offensive line. They'd better hope their ground-bound, dinosaur-era attack can cash the checks their gaping faceholes have been writing for 364 days.

FRIDAY

Tulane Green Wave @ Cincinnati Bearcats

Draper: In the weekly spin the wheel AAC battle, the winner gets a berth in the title bout while the loser...could as well? When in doubt, go with the squad in the friendly confines and the one that's been there before.  The Bearcats are no strangers to the big stage and while the Green Wave have been a fun story, it won't be enough.  Fickell looks to return to the New Year's Six.  Tul: 17--UC: 27

Hoying: Oh, I thought I was so clever 3 weeks ago when I predicted that the Green Wave would finally end their decades-long losing streak against ranked opponents. Then UCF happened, and Tulane now finds itself fighting for a spot in the divisionless AAC title bout. Cincinnati, of course, is not the G5 standout they were a season ago, but they've gutted out tough wins and fallen short only against bowl-eligible Arkansas and the very UCF that tripped up Tulane. I really do believe (as I did previously) that Tulane is the better squad, but they just appear to have difficulty closing out big wins under the bright lights. The glitz of Nippert and Cool Hand Luke vanquish another foe and keep the Bearcats on pace for their third straight New Year's Six appearance. Tul: 20--Cin: 24
Schweinfurth: The fightin’ Ficks know how to win late in the year. About now each year the Bearcats just rise up and take over the AAC. I expect nothing less against Tulane. Cats keep rolling. Tul: 24--UC: 28

Seeberg:  As our colleague Señor Hoying points out, Tulane had an incredibly long winless streak against ranked opponents, a streak that lengthened by one against UCF a couple weeks ago.  Enter yet another ranked squad to their schedule, and now they're on the road to boot.  Not a great recipe for a new unit fighting for an NY6 bid against a squad who knows that struggle- and has won it- all too well.  Bearcats stay on track.  Tul: 23--Cin: 31

SATURDAY

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers

Draper: Who doesn't love a good ole Civil War (no, I refuse to continue to change these rivalry titles).  BoNix has been a revelation this year for the Ducks, but don't count out the Beavs.  They nearly clipped SC and have been quietly solid all year.  Going to Corvallis doesn't inspire fear in anyone (except USC), but could the crowd be a factor? I just don't see it.  The Ducks have been solid since the UGA devouring and I expect it to continue.  Ore: 42--OreSt: 27
Hoying: So there is a thing as being a product of your schedule, Beavers, especially in the Pac-12 or the ACC. But last week, battle-tested UCLA fell to cupcake devourer USC, so this line of thinking isn't bulletproof. Yeah, Oregon State doesn't have a great win. Yeah, they got drilled by the Utah that Oregon just closed out. Where was I going with this? Oh yes, there isn't really a good reason to roll with OSU in this one. They don't have the offense to keep up with the Ducks, and I don't see the Beavs putting on another defensive clinic like the one that nearly derailed USC and Caleb's award hopes. Ore: 38--OreSt: 23
Schweinfurth: Bo Nix got his BoNix out a couple weeks ago and now everything is as it should be. The Ducks, once again, look like their post-Georgia selves. Oregon should keep rolling. The poor Beavers don’t stand a chance. Ore: 42--OreSt: 21

Seeberg: An in-state rivalry contest with a bit of juice this season.  The Beavers are a respectable squad.  They beat who they should and lose to who they should.  Unfortunately, their hated opponent falls into the latter category.  The Ducks' slip up against the Huskies two weeks ago was not enough to cost a conference title berth, provided they take care of business this weekend, and I believe they will.  Bo Nix, astonishingly, is still throwing the ball to the players in the correct jerseys (which, let's be honest, is quite a feat at Oregon given how often they change their unis).  The offense proves superior in the second half, Ducks pull away late.  Ore: 34--Orest: 21

ND Fighting Irish @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Put up or shut up, Irish.  This year has been a roller coaster after the close loss to the Buckeyes, unthinkable losses to the Herd and Cardinal, then victories over Dabo and Cuse.  The new look Irish have been focused on defense and ball control....which is just the recipe to frustrate the Trojans.  Caleb has been fantastic, engineering an explosive Trojan offense.  One thing that is said is that your defense travels.  Can the ND coach wake up the echoes and bring a huge victory to year one while knocking the Trojans (hypothetically) out of the Playoff?  I think there's a chance.  ND: 31--USC: 28

Hoying: OK, Irish, it's been fun, but just how seriously are we to take this late season resurrection? Second half  collapses against Navy aside, ND has been tearing through opponents as varied as Boston College to Syracuse to the dreaded Tigers of Death Valley East. Yes, the ACC is not the top P5 conference this year, but neither is the Pac-12; can the Irish terrorize the Pacific Coast as effectively as the Atlantic? With Drew Pyne still not being the answer the Irish need at QB, ND has been forced to rely on their staunch defense and strong running attack. The latter should pay dividends against a porous USC defense, but the question of the day is whether the Irish D can hold up against the offense that hasn't been slowed outside of one weird night in Corvallis. Personally, I think the Trojans will be a bit tougher rock to crack than the Tigers, and with a CFP berth and the opportunity to leapfrog Stroud in everyone's favorite award race, I don't think USC is going to slip up just yet. Check back next week in Vegas. ND: 38--USC: 41
Schweinfurth: USC has a great offense. Unfortunately for the Trojans, Riley’s Sooner defense traveled west. Not good. The Irish defense has looked great at points and has experience shutting down high powered offenses (see week 1). The Irish have also been on a punt block tear. Conventional thought says, go with the Trojans, but I can honestly see the Irish pulling off the upset. ND: 38--USC: 35

Seeberg: Certainly an interesting first go-around for ND's new head coach.  It's been fun watching the Irish single-handedly crush the ACC's ability to crack the playoff this year; however, a new challenge arrives out west in yet another playoff-seeking foe.  The Trojans still can't stop anybody, but if Caleb and Co. stay this hot he could have a legit shot at taking the hardware in a few weeks at the Downtown Athletic Club.  At present, this tussle is strength on strength.  Can ND score on USC's "defense"?  Can USC consistently drive the ball against a stout NDefense?  I'd guess probably on both, which leaves the result up in the air.  Friendly confines, and a fondness for close shootout-style contests, gives the Trojans the edge.  Until the Ducks (probably) are quacking next week, USC keeps the PAC-12 alive in the eyes of the CFP.  ND: 33--USC: 38

That School Up North @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Enter the field with you, your brothers, the ball, and the worst foe you can perceive.  It. is. Here.  As the Bcukeyes face TTUN as undefeated foes the question is the explosive offense vs. the blue-collar attitude.  Honestly, the Buckeyes have both though you'd never know according to reports.  The weakness of this Buckeye defense is the cornerback position, and I just don't think JJ has the guns to wreak havoc.  If Stroud and Co. can get out to an early lead, I don't see a path to victory for the blue.  The wolverines aren't built to catch up.  As Harbaugh wants to reduce possessions, Day will continue to pour it on.  It is CRUCIAL for the Buckeyes to get off the field on 3rd down and sustain drives (unless an explosive ends it early).  TTUN will try to take the air our to the ball, but the potential lack of their RBs could cause issues.  If the Bucks can prevent JJ's running for key 3rd downs, it could be a long day for the blue.  The Shoe, the crowd, the better squad....it's aligned.  Stroud takes control of the postseason award while a star is born in Dallan Hayden.  Harrison will get his, but expect a secondary receiver to create noise as well.  Go Bucks! Beat Blue!  TTUN: 24--OSU: 45
Hoying: This year's version of the rivalry presents a wider culture clash than we've seen since the days of Tressel vs. RichRod. The upshot is that this week's contest could go in any of a thousand different directions, but this writer finds inspiration in that apex of disappointing Buckeye losses: the 2007 BCS National Title against the Florida Gators. Go back and rewatch it if you're craving a swift kick to the nethers. It's horrible to suffer through but once you get past the initial shock you begin to notice a rather uncanny through-line: it's like watching peak Urban era Ohio State work over peak Tressel era Ohio State. The sport had already started to pass old Sweater Vest by in 2006; he still had enough in the tank to knock out TSUN every season-end but wins against crystal football caliber opponents would be forever out of reach. So it is now with our hated rivals up north. Their dinosaur-era run-first and play sound defense strategy was a great recipe for Harbaugh the QB but will not deliver results on elite levels for Harbaugh the coach against today's sophisticated offenses. Countless phases of last year's showdown had to break the Wolverines' way for Ohio State's 8-year streak to finally fold: the Buckeyes started slow on offense, they incurred countless pre-snap penalties, and least forgivably, the run defense refused to effect any kind of second half corrections after their predictable, low-ceiling plan was laid bare by Hassan and Blake. Blake's back (at what capacity we probably won't know until his first drive of the day), but Knowles will have the right pieces in the right places to slow their rushing attack just enough to allow CJ and friends to set the pace of the day. I don't think Blake will be stopped cold; in fact, I'd be willing to go so far as to predict the end of the streak of the school with the better average yards/carry leaving with a victory, which dates all the way back to 2001. But the Corn and Blue's plodding style requires perfect play all day; the Buckeyes only need a slight opening to blitz a quick 21 on the board and seize control. Just ask Penn State. You think Stroud and the slobs have forgotten what that assclown Howard said last awards season? Coleridge Bernard's little blue bird said it best: this is how villains are...set loose on their dreaded foes. The weather is of no consequence (unless it's raining sideways). When the little rubber pellets clear on Saturday, the Buckeyes will be rounding third and heading for Indy. TSUN: 23--OSU: 34
Schweinfurth: Ryan Day is pissed off. All of his players are pissed off. Heck, all of Ohio is pissed off after Harbooger and his idiots started running their traps last year. Let’s revisit what happened when Day and his boys were last this pissed off. Yea, they throttled Dabo the Clown. The Knowles factor here is huge as well. We was brought in to fix the defense in contests like this. He has even stated that his defense is designed to stop offenses like what the Wolverinies are going to run out. TTUN’s window for victory is tiny. Everything has to go right, and it did last year. This year? Weather is good, we are in the ‘Shoe, and the Bucks are pissed. Day will hang a hundred if he can. TTUN: 17--OSU: 52

Seeberg: It's FINALLY here!  The wait has been excruciating for anyone and everyone involved with the Ohio State football brotherhood.  The parallel-yet-divergent paths these squads have been on this season is highly intriguing.  TSUN returns a not-quite-as-good D as their elite unit last year, but an ostensibly better offense.  The silver bullets have returned on the Buckeye D, but without JSN and at least one star tailback, one can easily argue OSU's offense isn't quite as potent as it was heading into this one last year.  A couple stats to keep at the forefront:  Ryan Day is 31-1 against the conference, but just 1-1 against TSUN as they ducked us and cited COVID as the (weak) reason in 2020.  Start 1-2 against our hated rival and as insane as it sounds, the "Cooper" whispers could begin.  As anyone reading this will recall, Urban went 7-0 in the rivalry. Tough to beat for sure, and Day, perhaps, is feeling that just a touch.  Another reassuring stat, however, is as follows:  This is the 12th instance of this contest occurring with both squads ranked in the top 5.  The visitors are just 1-9-1 in those instances.  Also, TSUN hasn't won in the 'Shoe this CENTURY (funny to say it that way, but it is accurate).  Back to Saturday.  In this writer's borderline professional opinion, it will boil down to two things.  Can JJ push the ball down field enough to force the Buckeye D to respect it and not key heavily on the run (especially if Blake is near 100%).  On our side of the ball, can the Buckeyes run the ball when everybody KNOWS it is going to be run (short-yardage, winding the clock, etc.).  I don't have a ton of faith in either of those happening with consistency, but after witnessing the TSUN signal caller whiff on longer throws by five yards over and over again, I have to conclude the Buckeyes will be better off here.  Get CJ short throws NOT OUT WIDE PAST THE DIGITS but crosses and slants early, start a FULLY HEALTHY running back, even Hayden has acquitted well. I trust he'll value the ball and get you positive yards, keep JJ bottled in the pocket as often as possible, and set the world right with a TSUN loss.  TSUN: 20--OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: Vandy over Tennessee
Hoying: Florida over Florida State
Schweinfurth: South Carolina over Dabo 
Seeberg: Kansas over Kansas State

Week 12: Unraveling the Knot

Standings:

1.) Hoying 36-16 (3-8 upset)
1.) Draper 36-16 (1-10 upset)

3.) Seeberg 35-17 (0-11 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 34-18 (4-7 upset)

The SEC and ACC title games are set, and the Big Ten East isn't too hard to puzzle out either. But in a few conferences and divisions across the land, the picture grows fuzzier every week instead of gaining clarity as the end of the season approaches. This week's slate of games should go a long way to determining who will be playing for the Pac-12 and Big Ten crowns this December (you're on your own, though, Big 12, especially if Kansas State loses to West Virginia).

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

Editor's note: Two weeks ago it was a near certainty that we would be picking Illinois @ Michigan as it looked like the road team (a) had a pulse and (b) would be a serious player in the Big Ten West hunt. But as the last two weeks have sent the Illini tumbling down the standings with little hope of derailing Footballmageddon in Columbus, our search for a game relevant to placing a team in Indianapolis on December 3 leads us to this Sickos-fest.

Draper: What to do with any of these B1G West...teams? Honestly, this is a 'spin the wheel game'.  I've been really big on the home teams this year, but I could see Iowa stealing one on the road.  Minnesota fell from grace after early season success and Iowa actually scored offensive TDs last week! Don't go expecting offensive fireworks here, but Minnesota leans on Ibrahim, and Iowa stops the run. Iowa: 17--Minn: 10
Hoying: It's all at your fingertips, Iowa. With Illinois a virtual lock to go down in flames in Ann Arbor, all you have to do to return to the Big Ten Championship for the second year in a row is knock out the last two teams ahead of you. Of course, to do that, you'll have to actually mount some offense, right? Right? Wait a minute, I'm getting a report that Iowa put up 146 yards on Wisconsin last week? And beat them by 2 scores?!? On second thought, you just keep being you, Iowa. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota was the advanced stats darling through the first four weeks of the year, culminating with a blowout win over Michigan State to announce the Gophers' ascension to the elite...until we realized that Michigan State was trash. Mo Ibrahim is still the man but steady hand Tanner Morgan is likely out for the Gophers this week. That's not great news against a ball-hawking, opportunistic Iowa defense. Make sure to tune into this one after the Buckeyes take care of business in College Park (or if the second half is getting out of hand) as a palate cleanser before the Pac-12 feasts to follow. Iowa: 16--Minn: 13
Schweinfurth: Hurray for a B1G West rock fight! Both teams have struggled on offense and both have at least competent defenses (very good in the case of Iowa). Let's be honest here, the team that wins this one may only cross the 50 yard line once. I may watch for a good laugh. Iowa: 7--Minn: 6
Seeberg: Wow, we're really picking this one huh?  OK then.  Editor's note aside, this game will likely not be for the faint of heart.  With temps in the teens and not much semblance of offense for either squad under the best of conditions anyways.  Iowa has, by their standards, righted the ship lately where as the Gophers have just muddied about for a while with scrapes and bruises to both Tanner Morgan and Mo likely costing them a game or two through the B1G schedule.  This one is no different.  Enjoy the punt fest!  Iowa: 17--Minn: 9

Southern California Trojans @ California Los Angeles Bruins

Draper: Let's look at the awesome out of conference resumes of the Pac12....that's it.  That's the joke.  These teams have beat up on each other, but there has been nothing outside of the conference to excite.  The Trojans have a dynamic offense and no defense.  The Bruins are coming off a brutal loss to the Wildcats so the questions abound as to their viability of bouncing back.  Another coin-flip game but this one has massive consequences for the conference and potentially the playoffs.  I think I lean to the Trojans, but by the slimmest of margins (even with the loss of Travis Dye).  A USC loss would be a boon to the OSU/UM loser, but I don't think it happens here.  USC: 42--UCLA: 38
Hoying: Everyone has been super hyped on the Trojans season, and I have to tell you, I just don't get it. The Trojans have played exactly two teams in the top six of the Pac-12: one they barely escaped on a last-minute TD and the other nipped them in OT. Things are about to pick up in a real way with UCLA, Notre Dame, and potentially Oregon or Utah in the Pac-12 Championship coming up quickly. The new-look Trojans are the same as the old-look Sooners under Lincoln Riley: great offense and no defense. This is eerily similar to their crosstown opponents, except the Bruins have actually played Oregon and Washington in addition to the rest of the Pac-trash this season. UCLA is just a better version of USC, and this is especially true with USC's star running back and erstwhile Oregon Duck, Travis Dye, now sidelined for the season with a knee injury. Blue & Gold > Garnet & Gold this year. Hopefully some Bruin fans will be in attendance to enjoy it. USC: 41--UCLA: 48
Schweinfurth: This is the exact opposite of the Iowa/Minnesota game. Neither team believes in defense, but can put up points in bunches. Caleb Williams is still a dark horse Heisman candidate at this point. A big day here might boost his stock a bit more. USC has the ball last and wins. USC: 49--UCLA: 45
Seeberg: With 3 games all against ranked foes and just one loss thus far on their resume, the Trojans are now easily the Pac-12's best shot at the playoff after UCLA and Oregon both succumbed to the cannibalization in their conference last week.  We know USC plays defense only because they're forced to, but now Travis Dye is gone for the year and the Trojans may struggle running the ball.  Even with Caleb Williams a one-dimensional offense becomes a bit easier to stop.  I'm guessing the Bruins get just enough of them to outscore their crosstown rivals.  USC: 34--UCLA: 42

Utah Utes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Another big game in the Pac12 echo chamber.  Both teams have conference title aspirations, but the Pac 12's hopes for the playoffs took a major hit with UW upsetting Oregon.  BoNix is always the wildcard, but the Utes are quietly sneaking around the chicken coop.  The Pac12 is a logjam at the top, but the winner here should have the inside track to face the winner of the game in LA.  After being unimpressed seeing the Utes in person, I just don't feel that the Ducks are consistent enough.  There's a Cameron Bad Moon Rising in Autzen as the Ducks get quacked.  Utah: 35--Ore: 31
Hoying: Having seen both of these teams last year, you could be forgiven for thinking the Utes were going to blow away the Ducks as they did in both of last season's showdowns. But while these Utes seem to be carbon copies of last year's great-but-not-elite squad, Oregon decided to take the September 2021 Ducks and extend them for a whole season this year. Bo Nix is cooking now that he's in an offense tailored to his particular skills, and the rushing attack is among the best, if not the best, in the nation. Like the game above, don't expect to see much defense in this matchup, but the combination of home field advantage and the strides the Ducks have made on offense should be enough to push them back into the driver's seat in the Pac-12 race after last week's setback. Utah: 38--Ore: 44
Schweinfurth: Washington showed that Oregon can be stopped if you attempt to have a defense with a pulse last week. Also, Bo Nix is still BoNix. Utah loves the position they are in, written off early and an underdog. They are dangerous and should be able to slow the Ducks down juuuuuust enough. Utah: 42--Ore: 35
Seeberg: Well, the Ducks certainly surprised last week...in a bad way.  Their 23-game home winning streak ended at the hands of a former Indiana QB.  Utah proved Oregon's kryptonite last year and are certainly capable of beating them again, but it's almost unfathomable that the Ducks would lose two straight in Autzen.  Bo Nix makes just enough throws- to his own team- to outlast a stubborn Utah squad.  Utah: 31--Ore: 36

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Maryland Terrapins

Draper: Baby Tua led the Terps to early season hopes, but I just don't think it will be enough to take down the juggernaut unless the Bucks choose to rest their starters (which could happen....but won't).  Stroud is still in the thick of the Heisman race so the TDs need to flow like wine.  Honestly, all that matters is getting back to Columbus healthy and with a W.  I expect Day to have a gameplan to shorten the game as the fewer hits we can take, the better.  The last time the Buckeyes went to College Park, they escaped with a one point win 52-51.  This time, I don't see the numbers that high, but the Bucks need to shut the door early.  There's no reason for Stroud, Harrison, any RB, etc. to be in the game in the 4th.  Get in, get the win, stay healthy, and turn your attention fully to TTUN.  OSU: 48--Mary: 13
Hoying: Say hello to November Maryland. Since joining the Big Ten, November Maryland's crowning achievement was either euthanizing the Brady Hoke era the week before the Buckeyes desecrated its corpse back in 2014, or putting up 51 points to fall just short of Dwayne Haskins's all-time great performance back in 2018. The passing attack, expected to be the backbone of this team, no longer works, and no other aspect of the team has stepped up to make the Terps competitive. Yes, Maryland is bowl eligible, but those six wins came against Buffalo, Charlotte, SMU, Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern. I suspect their truer colors shone through last week in Happy Valley in a 30-0 dismantling at the hands of the Big Ten's perennial B-tier representative. The Terrapins put up fewer total yards in their whole game against Penn State than the Buckeyes did in the fourth quarter of the Jaylahn Tuimoloau game. Play this one close to the vest, keep everyone healthy, and the second the clock hits 0:00, it's on to Rivalry Week. OSU: 45--Mary: 6
Schweinfurth: Oh the running back room. I'm just gonna say it, you should not need Miyan or TreVeyon this week to beat Maryland. Dallan Hayden, Chip Trayanum, and Xavier Johnson are more than capable of toting the rock of decent yards in this game. Defensively, just keep building. Taulia hasn't been the same since spraining this MCL. Get the running back room somewhat healthy, get this one over with, and let's get on to my favorite/least favorite week of the year. OSU: 49--Mary: 20
Seeberg: A couple weeks ago this game looked like it might have a bit of intrigue as the Terrapins were 6-2.  Since then, however, they've mustered 10 points combined in two weeks including an awful shutout loss at Penn State.  Granted, Ohio State didn't arrive in State College until the 4th quarter, but the turtle never made it.  It feels like Mike Locksley is a solid recruiter but the development portion of his staff is an issue as the reasonably talented roster has stagnated.  Bad news when a supremely talented and developed team rolls into College Park.  Back home Maryland may score a time or two, and the Buckeyes still have lots of injury questions that need answering in advance of The Game, but we could likely roll our 2s out and still win this one by multiple scores.  Keep rolling, PLEASE get healthier, and we'll see you next week in the 'Shoe.  OSU: 52--Mary: 17

Upset Special
Draper: Miami over Clemson
Hoying: West Virginia over Kansas State
Schweinfurth: Navy over UCF
Seeberg: Kentucky over Georgia

Week 11: November Is For Contenders

Standings:

1.) Hoying 34-13 (3-7 upset)
1.) Draper 34-13 (0-10 upset)

3.) Seeberg 32-15 (0-10 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 30-17 (4-6 upset)

The (slightly revised) big three have solidified their spots for now and earned a few relative breathers before the titanic clashes to come. But while we wait for those shoes to drop, multiple Playoff hopefuls on the precipice are looking to make statement wins to keep themselves in the running.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This is (surprisingly).  Bama has shown multiple chinks in the armor this year.  While they're certainly more talented than Lane Kiffin's squad, there have been VERY few road wins of note this year.  The Grove is a tough place to play, but a quick review of Ole Miss's schedule shows they've played....no one outside of LSU (to whom they lost).  Bryce Young is a very talented player that has hidden a lot of the flaws in the Tide, but the RB is very good and will be the X-factor.  Bama may be (more or less) out of the running, but if they have a little pride, I think they leave with a win.  Ala: 38--Miss: 30
Hoying: Hot take: I don't think the Tide are that good this season. Yes, they're a last-second field goal in Knoxville and a 2-point conversion in Baton Rouge away from still being undefeated, but they're a late field goal in Austin and 2 yards in Tuscaloosa against the Aggies away from just as easily being 5-4. They've been particularly bad on the road, not that Tennessee or LSU would be an easy out no matter where you play them. Not only is the Bama offense frustratingly inconsistent, especially through the air, the defense is running some truly bizarre schemes, which led to them getting gashed late against LSU. The pieces are on the table to Alabama to get got again, but unfortunately their remaining schedule may save them. Ole Miss is basically a worse version of Bama: the secondary is atrocious rather than bad, and the passing game has really dropped off after Matt Corral left. The Rebels have essentially played one good team, LSU, and got blown away a lot worse than the Tide did. Look out for a potential bowl game loss for Alabama, but I wouldn't bet on them losing before then. Ala: 34--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Bama feels ripe for another upset here. The Tide can score with anyone, especially with Bryce Young pulling the trigger. The Tide defense just hasn't looked the part. There is still a ton of talent on that side of the ball that they should be able to get enough stops to pull away late. But this won't be pretty. Ala: 38--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Well whatever shine was still on this game has been unceremoniously removed by LSU.  The Tide are puzzlingly pedestrian this year and Ole Miss is competent, but against a largely meh schedule save for their drubbing at the hands of the Tigers.  The post-Matt Corral era has seen Lane Kiffin pivot to a run-heavy attack, to his credit, attempting to play to the strengths of his roster.  Bama, however, is far weaker against the pass and the Rebels aren't the team to exploit it.  It would be fun to see Kiffin win this one and taunt Saban for 12 months, but it just doesn't feel likely.  Tide late.  Ala: 38--Miss: 24

Central Florida Knights @ Tulane Green Wave

Draper: I just can't get excited for this one.  Tulane has a win over KSU which has appreciated greatly, but a lot of sweet garbage otherwise.  UCF has the sweet garbage but 2 losses to boot.  Good chance for Tulane to put a stamp on the Group of 5 representation in the New Year's 6 here...or for the Knights to snatch it away.  Since I know nothing about these teams other than the results of the games, I'll go with the home team who has beaten a good team. Roll Wave.  UCF: 17--Tulane: 20
Hoying: Who's excited to see the G5 representative in the New Year's Six this year? Just wait until a few years from now when games like this will determine a Playoff participant to go to Madison or Eugene or some other far-flung location to get blasted. UCF features a potent offense led by dual-threat former-Ole Miss Rebel QB John Rhys Plumlee, but it tends to go bye-bye at the worst times, putting up a total of 27 points in the Knights' two losses. Tulane features the better defense, famously shutting down Kansas State for probably the G5's best win this year. It'll be enough to frustrate UCF for the third time this season and put the Green Wave in the driver's seat for a spot at the big boy table. UCF: 20--Tulane: 24
Schweinfurth: I'll be honest, the most AAC football I have watched this year is as I am typing this. From what I have found, UCF seems to be the better team here. Let's go with that. UCF:28--Tulane: 24
Seeberg: Here's a mind-boggling stat, Tulane is 0 for it's last 60 against AP-ranked opponents.  One such team travels their way this Saturday in UCF.  The Knights' QB situation is uncertain, and that uncertainty may prove to be the Green Wave's undoing as they've been forced to prepare for both quarterbacks.  Tulane's defense is solid, but that second-guessing may prove to be just enough to make them 0 for their last 61 against ranked teams.  Knights take the pole position for the G5NY6 spot.  UCF: 26--Tulane: 21

Washington Huskies @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Oregon has been a machine since the drubbing to UGA in Week 1.  Bo Nix is priiiimed for Bo Nixing, but, similar to my argument above, the Ducks are at home.  Michael Penix has been flying under the radar in Seattle, but this is a tall order to enter Autzen Stadium with a talent discrepancy.  Penix almost pulled it off in the Shoe, but everyone gets one.  The ground attack of the Ducks is enough to keep pace with the big guns at the top of the CFP.  UW: 27--UO: 40
Hoying: Don't be surprised if this year marks the Pac-12's triumphant return to the Playoff after a 5-year hiatus. Washington's a bit out of the conversation at this point but Oregon is primed to jump Tennessee and the Ohio State/Michigan loser if it can take care of business, starting with what's become quite the one-sided rivalry in the Ducks' favor. Washington looked like they got off to a hot start to the season before we learned that Michigan State was terrible, and then UCLA effortlessly blew through them. It doesn't help that the Huskies have no running game to help out Michael Penix's spectacular passing attack. Oregon has the balanced attack, scoring more than 40 points in each of their last 7 games (helps not to have to play in a tornado) and they should move past the Huskies to set up a huge rematch of last year's embarrassing losses to Utah. UW: 24--UO: 38
Schweinfurth: I'm not sure Washington has the firepower to keep up with Oregon here. Bo Nix and the Ducks have been on an absolute heater since getting thumped by UGA. I honestly can't see how this one is close. UW: 24--UO:49
Seeberg: I'm not wasting any time on this one.  Washington is a competent side this year but Oregon is simply not the same team that got roasted by UGA in week one.  In Autzen?  No shot for the Huskies.  Ducks big.  UW: 20--UO: 41

Texas Christian Horned Frogs @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: TCU can't keep getting away with this....can they????? I believe TCU has either faced a backup QB or knocked the opposing QB out in the last 6 or so games (which is crazy!).  I don't think they're dirty, but they've been touched from on high.  Now, Quentin Johnston is that dude and Max Duggan has been orchestrating the offense at a high level....but I just can't see it continuing forever. Texas is the darling of the power ratings despite their losses, but, once again, the game is in Darrell K Royal (and Texas has their own WR stud in Worthy). The athletes in burnt orange are better than those at all the other ranked teams TCU has seen thus far. Can the former Buckeyes QB erase the Hypnotoad from the rearview mirror? I've been wrong repeatedly, but...I'll do it again! Hook 'em.  TCU: 24--UT: 34
Hoying: I have tremendous respect for TCU this year. The Big 12 is a meatgrinder without a chump team to provide breather weeks here and there, and the Frogs haven't slipped up once. Then again, there aren't really any standout teams in the conference either. The most talented team is probably...Texas. And now the Horned Frogs have to travel to Austin to try to make the magic happen for the 10th time this season. I feel like road wins have been tougher to come by than usual this year, and with the hot starts that Texas has been dishing out this year, I'm not confident in TCU's ability to outlast them (and knock out Ewers on the way). TCU: 27--UT: 31
Schweinfurth: Everyone is down on TCU, but they win. It's not pretty and they have that strange ability to rise from the dead in the second half. Here's the other thing, I don't trust Texas. They can put up points, but they also crap games away late. I can totally see that happening here. TCU: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg: I'm not much of a fan of hyperbole, but TCU is easily one of the most- if not the most- fortunate 9-0 team in college football in a long time.  They've faced, to paraphrase Lebron, not 2, not 3, not 4, not 5, but SIX backup QBs during their games, which is the primary reason that TCU has such sterling second-half defensive statistics and comebacks.  A healthy four quarters of Quinn Ewers, however, is likely why the 3-loss Longhorns (2 of which were with Ewers out, it bears mentioning) are touchdown favorites against an undefeated squad.  Horned Frogs' luck runs out.  TCU: 28--UT: 38

Indiana Hoosiers @ THE Ohio State Buckeyes

Draper: Was it the weather or a more systematic problem? I think the answer is: yes.  The weather in Evanston played a monumental part in the struggles last week, but the lack of dominance on the Oline and the running game consistently failing to pick up short yardage when needed is incredibly concerning.  The Buckeyes offense is dependent on the pass setting up the run (and the pass).  If the passing game is removed and the threat of going over the top is gone, some flaws were shown.  The weather isn't going to be great, but I don't think the wind will be the nullifier it was this past week.  CJ rights the ship with a nice efficient day orchestrating the offense while the RBs look a little better when the boxes are lighter.  I don't expect vintage Stroud, but 350 and 3 should take place.  Marv continues his personal dominance and Miyan gets another 2 on the ground.  It won't be the most lopsided win, but it will get us back on track.  IU: 13--OSU: 48
Hoying: The age of excuses is over. Road game? Bad weather? Opponent with decent defense? Not this time. It's not time to sound the warning bells yet; rather, ready the air raid sirens as the Bucks prepare to bomb away on another outmatched opponent. That being said, if Ohio State can't move the ball against Indiana, it may be time to worry. Or not: in 2014 the Hoosiers led the Bucks deep into the second half before Jalin Marshall put the team on his shoulders. And I shouldn't have to remind you what a constant heart attack November 2002 was. As long as the results keep going in the W column, there's hope for this team to achieve greatness. I think we'd all just like to see it return sooner rather than later. I expect it will. IU: 6--OSU: 52
Schweinfurth: Bucks are back in the Shoe and really, this team has played much better at home. I think last week was needed in a way that Day can show the video and work on the run game even more. This team is near unstoppable when they can be balanced and the lack of an aerial attack really put this team in a bind. Look, Ohio State does not lose to Indiana. It's not gonna happen this week. I really think last week was the wake up call this team needed. Time to get that train rolling toward The Game. IU: 14--OSU: 52
Seeberg: Well last week was dreary in just about every sense of the word.  I don't know if there was a prop bet on any site that would've allowed you to put money on CJ Stroud having more rushing yards than passing yards, but I'm guessing a $10 bet would've netted you something in the vicinity of the recent powerball windfall.  Regardless, now what's a Hoosier anyway? comes to town and this team has been a thorn in the side of the Buckeyes, at least during Urban Meyer's tenure.  Two 40+-point wins sandwiched around the weird COVID year (where the Buckeyes were up 35-7 before falling asleep at the wheel) and it's clear that Ryan Day hasn't taken the Hoosiers lightly.  This particular IU team is in a down cycle, starting 3-0 (including a now-baffling win over Illinois) before dropping six straight against the likes of Rutgers and Nebraska.  Yeesh.  Get points, get turnovers, and PLEASE continue to try to get healthy.  IU: 10--OSU: 45

Upset Special
Draper: Purdue over Illinois
Hoying: Mississippi State over Georgia
Schweinfurth: Nebraska over Michigan
Seeberg: Arkansas over LSU 

Perfection and The Game

Ohio State and Michigan first squared off in 1897, and have played each other every year (more or less) since 1918. But it wasn't until 1935 that The Game was moved to the end of each year's schedule and became the climax that would define each team's season. Whether the teams are ranked #1 and #2, like in 2006, or enter at 3-4-1 and 3-5, like in 1959, The Game is a one game season all its own.

In some years, however, The Game is the crown jewel topping an otherwise flawless season for one or both teams. And there's nothing more excruciating than seeing your rival kneecap you on the precipice of perfection. But what has The Game looked like for the Buckeye and Wolverine teams blessed with otherwise immaculate regular seasons? Apropos of nothing (as there is still plenty of meaningful football to be played between now and zero hour), let's take a look.

Since 1935, Michigan has put its perfect record on the line against Ohio State nine times, in 1947, 1948, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974 (what a streak!), 1997, and 2006. The Wolverines are 4-4-1 in these games, including a 3-0-1 mark in Ann Arbor and a 1-4-0 record in Columbus. Notably, UM parlayed victories into national championships in 1947, 1948, and 1997 (kind of).

In the same timespan, Ohio State has brought a perfect record into the Michigan game fifteen times, in 1944, 1954, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1995, 1996, 2002, 2006, 2012, 2013, and 2019. The Buckeyes are 11-3-1 in these games, including a 7-1-0 mark in Columbus and a 4-2-1 record in Ann Arbor. OSU was able to ride wins over the Wolverines to national titles in 1954, 1968, 1970 (kind of), and 2002.

As you may have noticed, both teams entered The Game with perfect records on three separate occasions:

• 1970: #5 Ohio State defeated #4 Michigan 20-9
• 1973: #1 Ohio State tied #4 Michigan 10-10
• 2006: #1 Ohio State defeated #2 Michigan 42-39

The only road team to ever knock off an undefeated Ohio State or Michigan in The Game was the Wolverines, in their colossal 13-9 upset of #2 Ohio State in 1996.

Go Bucks. Beat Blue. Whether either team is undefeated or not.

Week 10: Look Away! Look Away!

Standings:

1.) Hoying 31-10 (3-6 upset)
2.) Draper 30-11 (0-9 upset)

3.) Seeberg 29-12 (0-9 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 28-13 (3-6 upset)

We wish we were in Dixie this week for what could be the game of the year (other than The Game) and another top ten (*sigh*) matchup to boot. Whatever you do, don't stare too closely at what the Buckeyes are going to do to Northwestern in Evanston. Viewer discretion is advised.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: The eyes of the college football world descend on Athens this week to see if the defending National Champs can take out the resurgent Vols.  One thing that needs to be discussed early, very few of the wins in big marquee matchups have gone to the away team (OSU over PSU, UT over LSU, and Bama over Texas are about it).  Granted, the Vols have one of those, but I'm not ready to welcome LSU into the Top 10 fahmuhlee (very odd ranking).  Georgia is salivating to have a big game between the hedges and they'll get it.  If they can knock Tennessee and Hooker off schedule early, I think they slowly/methodically squeeze the life out of them.  This just feels like a hyped game for the ages, but those usually come crashing down as duds.  I'm going with the Dawgs to reclaim the top spot.  UT: 20--UGA: 34
Hoying: Remember those halcyon days before the Haskinsing in Ann Arbor, when it looked like Georgia and Ohio State could be on a collision course for the Playoff? And we knew Ohio State's defense was trash but we thought that our vertical passing game would be enough to challenge Georgia in a way no other team could? Well, here's basically that matchup, only instead of at a neutral site we're squarely between the hedges. The Bulldog defense is slightly worse than last year's, but they still have the same ultra-efficient offense, as long as they're not playing Missouri. Tennessee was built to challenge Alabama's suspect secondary, but Georgia will be a tougher rock to crack. On the other side of the ball, nobody's going to mistake Stetson Bennett for CJ Stroud, but he should feast against Tennessee's awful pass defense, and Georgia's rush attack is a credible enough threat to keep the Vol D honest. It's been fun, Tennessee. Let's see what another year of development can do. UT: 24--UGA: 28

Schweinfurth: This Tennessee offense is something to behold. Hendon Hooker has gone from transfer "meh" QB to a Heisman front runner. Then along come the Dawgs. Georgia is a bit beat up, but this is still one of the best defenses in the country. I've gone back and forth on this game all week. It keeps coming back to the Vol's defense. If they can get some stops, they have a chance. I'm just not sure they can get enough. Georgia wins an entertaining game. UT: 28--UGA:31
Seeberg: First off, I'm astonished the CFP didn't put these two at 1/2 to make this matchup perfection.  Bravo to them for staying marginally impartial.  That said, what a doozy between the hedges.  My other alma mater is way ahead of schedule with Heupel at the helm.  Love him as an offensive mind but didn't expect him to be this good as a head coach.  The Dawgs, as we know, bring an excellent D and a great crowd.  However, Hendon Hooker is actually 24(!) years old and a seasoned vet.  And UGA is missing two defensive starters down for the year, including one in the secondary.  I SO want to see UT/OSU for the natty in January...but just not quite yet.  Stetson Bennett may actually be the difference, and a big stop late seals it for the new #1 come next week.  UT: 27--UGA: 34

Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: I'm intrigued by this game.  Notre Dame has 2 of the worst losses you'll see this year (Stanford and Marshall in South Bend), but they certainly showed some juice against the Orange last week.  Clemson has been living on the edge all year, but Dabo loooooves the underdog 'us against the world' mentality.  The Irish have been written off, but there's a change Marcus Freeman wakes up those echoes and dethrones the Tigers.  Heck with it.  I'm going with the upset. Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame.  Heavy dose of Mayer gets it done.  Clem: 24--ND: 27
Hoying: Usually there's one team a year that seems to be on a Playoff trajectory but with zero chance of making noise once they get there. And in an interesting twist, this year's team is NOT Notre Dame; it's this week's opponent! Clemson really impressed the Playoff committee with their unconvincing wins over a few teams ranked outside the top 15 (that won't be ranked much longer) but I don't think anyone paying close attention to the Tigers' inconsistent offense and overrated defense has much faith in them to beat an elite team this year. Good news for Clemson: their Cincinnati-esque schedule doesn't include any elite teams, as the best team left on their schedule is either a hyped-up South Carolina, or possibly a one-loss North Carolina in the ACC Championship. And that one loss was to...Notre Dame. Good luck figuring the Irish out this year. Beating Syracuse, hanging with Ohio State, and losing to bad bad bad Marshall and Stanford. The offense has never really recovered from losing QB Tyler Buchner against Marshall (not that he was doing much of anything before he was knocked out), which doesn't bode well for trying to move the ball against the Tiger front. Also, as you may have noticed in the season opener, Notre Dame's rush defense isn't that good, and while Travis Etienne isn't going to magically reappear on the Tiger sideline, they'll be able to find more than enough room to run to outpace the anemic Irish attack. Please, Buckeyes, get the #1 seed so we can thrash these clowns in the semifinals. Clem: 27--ND: 20
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame has turned it around and even got a quality win last week at Syracuse. Unfortunately, I don't think the Irish have an offense capable of consistently moving the ball on the Tiger defense. Clem: 17--ND: 14
Seeberg: Props to Marcus Freeman this season.  After the 0-2 start, and the staggering loss to Stanford sandwiched in there as well, this season could easily have gone off the rails for the Fighting Irish.  But the buy-in seems to be there as the offense miraculously awoke in a dominant win over the Orange last week.  In to town comes another, better orange-clad crew in Clemson.  DJ is still their QB, as he probably should be as Cade only threw 4 passes in Clemson's escape vs. Syracuse two weeks ago.  The defense, however, is a couple notches above what ND has seen since, well, since us.  It's hard to imagine the golden domers getting much going on that side of the ball, and Clemson should be able to do enough-ish on offense to stay unimpressively undefeated.  Clem: 27--ND: 17

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Louisiana State University Tigers

Draper: Here we go.  Let's give Brian Kelly another shot at Bama.  As stated above, I think the world was pretty surprised to see LSU in the top 10, but that just helps Bama.  The Tigers seem to be hitting their stride and buying into Kelly's system, but they don't have the horses to keep up with the Tide.  If Bryce Young is healthy, even the raucous crowd in Death Valley won't be enough.  Death, taxes, and Bama.  Bama: 38--LSU: 20
Hoying: Has anyone else noticed that Bama kind of stinks on the road this year? No shame to losing to Tennessee on a last-second field goal, but the Tide are another late field goal away from another road loss to good-not-great Texas. Then again, they're essentially a 2-point conversion try to losing to bad Texas A&M at home, so maybe the Tide just aren't quite up to the Saban death machine standard overall this season.  Conversely, though, are we sure that Death Valley is the house of horrors it's so often been this century? Yeah, Ole Miss got thrashed there but Tennessee didn't seem to have any problems dispatching the Tigers. Brian Kelly deserves all the credit for dragging LSU up from the pit that Coach O fell into after losing Joe Burrow, but this team has that 2012 Ohio State feeling of a hard ceiling just below elite level. We wouldn't have beaten Bama that year, and I don't think LSU will this year either. But they could, so buckle up. Bama: 28--LSU: 24

Schweinfurth: This is a top 10 match up because the CFP committee wants it to be so. Bama is gonna thrash LSU. Maybe the home crowd keeps LSU in it for a bit, but LSU is not a top 10 team. Bama: 42--LSU: 21
Seeberg: In an attempt to be fair to the CFP committee, I do get that LSU beat Ole Miss and they wanted to put the TIgers ahead of Kiffin's krew.  That said, LSU has an extra loss so...mulligan?  In any event, Bama now has another resume-bolstering opponent to beat.  The Tigers are better than anticipated in Brian Kelly's first year, and Bama is more flawed than most of us thought as well.  But the gap is still too wide.  Tide rolls in to Baton Rouge and rolls out with a W.  Bama: 34--LSU: 23

Texas Longhorns @ Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: As per usual, Texas is in the 'we have better athletes, but we love choking games away' mode.  They aren't a polished team, but the spurts are there. Manhattan is an underrated tough place to play.  It's going to be the glitz and glamour of Ewers, Robinson, and Worthy against the blue-collar Deuce Vaughn.  If Texas can keep the tempo up, I think they get it done, but it's going to be a barn-burner.  Hook 'em outlasts the slowplaying Wildcats and reenters the edges of the Big 12 race.  UT: 27--KSU: 24
Hoying: Remember when it seemed like Kansas State beat Texas every year? I had to look it up: Texas has now beaten the Wildcats 5 straight times, and a 6th would mark the longest streak by either team in the series. It's become kind of a meme to rag on the Longhorns' back-or-not status at this point, but they've been a bit snakebitten this season, losing by 1 to Alabama on a late field goal, fumbling an overtime game away against Texas Tech, and whatever the hell they did last week to give the game away to Oklahoma State. Kansas State seems to be peaking at the right time, and might even get their usual starter Adrian Martinez back this week, but I still think Texas has the higher ceiling. At some point the switch will flip (think of the Oklahoma game) and Texas will be back...to just outside relevance. Texas justifies the Committee's faith. UT: 31--KSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Kansas State looks the part. Shutting out a high powered Ok State last week was impressive. And here comes Texas. The Longhorns have been up and down with the QBs, but they aren't quite back yet. UT: 28--KSU: 38
Seeberg: I didn't believe much in the Wildcats heading into last week.  Swing and a miss there after they absolutely boatraced a top 10 team 48-0.  Now they welcome to town the inexplicably ranked 3-loss Texas squad with probably more talent but less idea how to utilize it.  Still, it's tough to imagine K-State getting into the 40-point range again with Bijan Robinson, in theory, helping the Longhorns control the ball.  I have no idea who the second-best team in the Big 12 is right now, and this game will make it that much harder to determine.  Longhorns late.  UT: 31--KSU: 23

Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ North Carolina State Wolfpack

Draper: Not much to say about this one.  The Wolfpack have been a total shell of themselves without Leary under center.  I know the Deacs had a turnover bout for the ages last week with 6 in a quarter (!), but it's tough to see that happening again.  Lean toward the team with the better QB.  WF: 27--NCSU: 17
Hoying: Sometimes you just need to burn the game film after a particularly rough week, and Wake Forest - Louisville is one of those games. Turnovers can be kind of luck and context dependent, and I don't expect even an above-average NC State defense to victimize Wake QB Sam Hartman for the second week in a row. Unfortunately for the Pack, there's no waking up from their nightmare, as Devin Leary isn't getting better anytime soon, and they don't really have another viable option at QB. I watched them play Virginia Tech. I don't have high hopes for them the rest of the season. WF: 31--NCSU: 13
Schweinfurth: Woof, was that an implosion last week by Wake. They are a better team than that and I think they rally and recover this week. WF: 35--NCSU: 24
Seeberg: I have no idea what happened to the vaunted Wake offense last week.  Six turnovers in a quarter has to be some sort of record (I hope).  Before that I would have trusted Sam Hartman more than anyone else on the field in this game.  My guess is he might start out a bit gun-shy but that many giveaways has to be an aberration.  Deacons bounce back.  WF: 37--NCSU: 31

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats

Draper: After last week going into the fourth, this should be a palate cleanser.  Northwestern is B-A-D, bad. There is no reason this shouldn't involve OSU going up and down the field while NW punts periodically.  Stroud should help solidify Harrison as the Biletnikoff front runner while Miyan and TreVeyon do work on the ground.  Depending on how the UGA game goes, Stroud could find himself back on top of the Heisman standings.  Big games all around for the Bucks as we mark time until Nov. 26.  OSU: 58--NW: 10
Hoying: The Ryan Day era of Ohio State football presents an interesting contrast against our prior two legendary coaches. While they each had their safety blanket suite of plays, Day is always tinkering, like he's trying to figure out which of his and Kevin Wilson's creations will work on the field against a real live opponent. This is a good thing, as we haven't seen a loss in the Day era from the offense refusing to adapt (the defense, on the other hand...). I predict a multitude of experiments this week, most of which will work because the team on the opposite sideline is stocked with players worse than Ohio State's scout team. Even if the weather is bad, that will mostly just create chaos, which, as we have seen over the last couple of weeks, heavily favors the Silver Bullets and their opportunistic ways. We're on to Indiana. OSU: 42--NW: 0
Schweinfurth: Guys, Northwestern's offense is BRUTAL. If this is the weather game everyone is predicting, the Cats are gonna be in a world of hurt. The Bucks run defense has been very good this year. Day is going to have the offense run the ball and do his best Herb Brooks imitation (AGAIN!). In all honesty, get up big and get the starters out before the 4th quarter. OSU: 42--NW: 6
Seeberg: Prepare for a sloppy noon (11 AM local, bleh) kick, Buckeye Nation.  25 MPH winds and long natural grass aided by rain today and tomorrow will make for a gross track, all in an effort to conspire against the Buckeyes to...maybe allow Northwestern to cover?  (The spread, if you were curious, is currently 38 points).  Northwestern is just plain bad this year, having won exactly 1 game...and 0 on this continent.  Iowa managed to score 33 points- all on the offensive side of the ball- against them, and that's not exactly a positive omen.  The conditions may make things uncomfortable at times, but the talent gap is just too vast.  Run it, stay healthy, and get out of Evanston as quickly as possible.  OSU: 45--NW: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Indiana over Penn State
Hoying: Texas Tech over TCU
Schweinfurth: Michigan St. over Illinois
Seeberg:  Tulsa over Tulane

Week 9: All Your Base Are Belong To Us

Standings:

1.) Hoying 28-10 (3-5 upset)
2.) Draper 28-10 (0-8 upset)

3.) Seeberg 27-11 (0-8 upset)

4.) Schweinfurth 25-13 (2-6 upset)

In Toaplan's cult 1991 scrolling shooter Zero Wing for the Sega Mega Drive, the player character faces off against the overwhelming invasion of the mysterious CATS, who gleefully declares that "All your base are belong to us." This Saturday, the script is flipped as cats from the Little Apple to Happy Valley hope to defend their bases from various invading OSU forces, with a few invading Kentucky Wildcats sprinkled in for variety.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas State Wildcats

Draper: What to do with the Big12.  It seems like no one really sucks (except maybe Iowa State or WVU), but no one is truly great.  Kansas State has been thriving off their transfer QB, but no one really believes they are true contenders.  The loser of this game is likely out of the championship, so the importance cannot be understated.  I still believe that Gundy and company are the best team in the conference so even though they dropped one at the last purple team they faced, redemption abounds for the Pokes.  OkSt: 35--KSU: 31
Hoying: It's a broken record at this point, but this one may depend on the health of the quarterbacks for Kansas State. Last week, even after losing Big Ten legend Adrian Martinez early, backup Will Howard still did more than enough to build a giant lead against Big 12 frontrunner TCU. Then he, too, fell off, and so did the wheels for the Wildcats. This week, Martinez is still a game-time decision, but Howard should be back in any case. Either way, moving the ball against the Cowboys shouldn't be the tough sledding the Wildcats faced in the second half last week. Jim Knowles isn't in Stillwater anymore, and the defense has been suffering without him. Okie State particularly suffers against the run, which is KSU's bread and butter. I'm going to bank on healthy Wildcat QB play, and Kansas State to throw another curveball into the Big 12 race. OkSt: 31--KSU: 35
Schweinfurth: At first glance, I was ready to pick OkSt. They still have the remnants of Jim Knowles' defense, I thought. Then I looked at the numbers, woof. Back to a typical Big 12 defense I guess. After seeing that, I like the Adrian Martinez redemption tour to continue. OkSt: 35--KSU: 42
Seeberg: Ah yes, the 2022 "we blew a big lead against TCU" bowl.  To their credit, the Cowboys bounced back with an upset(?) win over Texas last week.  How will the Wildcats recover?  My guess is not well.  TCU loss aside, the Cowboys have been respectable on D with the remnants of Jim Knowles' work.  The offense has been solid as well, and it's hard to imagine the Wildcats keeping pace for four quarters.  Cowboys keep their ultra-slim CFP hopes alive.  OkSt: 30--KSU: 23

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: Can the Wildcats get back to early season heroics and derail the Vols magic season? I actually think this could be a trap game for the Vols with Will Levis and the Wildcats throwing a little defense at the Heisman hopeful, but going to Knoxville on the high they are experiencing is a tough pill to swallow.  I think UK goes up early and makes the Vol Nation sweat it out, but Hyatt keeps the magic going as the Vols look to UGA.  UK: 35--UT: 42
Hoying: Oh, man, get Admiral Ackbar all over this one. The Vols have been terrific so far this year, with an offense as good as anyone not wearing scarlet and gray, but the big dog defending national champs are looming next week, and all that stands between now and then is a team practically tailor-made to exploit the Vols' weaknesses. Suspect secondary? Meet Will Levis, in the running for next year's overall top draft pick and probably back to fighting form after missing a game and being at less than 100% for another. Tennessee didn't slow down Alabama in the slightest, and they barely put up a fight against Florida, either. If Kentucky can play a solid 60 minutes of football, they can definitely catch the Vols sleeping before Footballpocalypse next week. But...that's not really UK's style. Turnovers and other mistakes doomed Big Blue two weeks in a row and kept an otherwise dominating performance against Mississippi State closer than it needed to be. I would love to pull the trigger on this but I just don't think the stars are going to align for the visitors. Mark your calendars for a possible #1 vs. #2 next Saturday. UK: 38--UT: 42
Schweinfurth: Kentucky is a decent team this year. I honestly can't see the Wildcats winning here. Hendon Hooker is just playing too well right now and I'm not sure the Cats can keep up. UK: 35--UT: 45
Seeberg: Side note:  Remember kids, James Franklin was deciding between Sean Clifford and Will Levis in 2020 and went with Clifford and not the 1st-round talent.  Yikes.  Regardless, Levis is back and near 100% against the Vols.  Under circumstances from 20 years ago, when UK was awful and UT was still relevant, this could be considered a trap game for the Volunteers before going to play top dawg Georgia.  Kentucky's offense, however, isn't catching anyone napping as it's top notch.  A let down last week might have also aided the visitors, but UT-Martin was the perfect post-Bama opponent for a safe W to ease back into SEC play.  Well done schedule gods!  Hendon Hooker feels like Stroud's only legitimate threat for the Heisman, and looking good while beating UGA next week would certainly warrant it.  In the mean time, however, expect lots of stats and points on both sides again, but the Vols just feel destined to make it to Athens unscathed.  Tennessee late.  UK: 31--UT: 41

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Much of the national media is downplaying this game as the Lions were blasted by Michigan and the OSU juggernaut doesn't look to be stopped.  I'm a little concerned as Happy Valley seems to send the Saturday Scaries at the Bucks.  They tend to pull it out, but it's usually close.  In a position by position comparison, there is no reason for this to be close.  They only people starting for the Lions that would sniff the field for the Bucks would be the corners so the talent disparity certainly exists. Stroud and Co. need to take control of the B1G by sending a message.  While the corners at PSU are quite good, our receivers are better.  In addition, the running game should make noise with a below average rush defense that was decimated by the Wolverines.  On the other side, I don't really see Clifford consistently orchestrating drives against the Silver Bullets.  The safeties should be able to limit the big plays and the Bucks cruise to 8-0. OSU: 52--PSU: 20
Hoying: There are three Big Ten opponents that Ryan Day's Buckeyes have never beaten by more than two scores. The Illini, whom Day has never faced (a crime hopefully rectified at season's end). The Gophers, whom Day only saw in C. J. Stroud's coming out party. And our erstwhile not-rivals. Yes, despite playing the Lions every year, the Buckeyes haven't found a way to pound them into the pavement since 2015. Even the 2019 juggernaut Bucks caught the fumble bug in the second half and took their closest victory of the year against Penn State at home. Last year, in the Buckeyes' pajama game (never again), Penn State revealed Ohio State's red zone and 3rd down rushing struggles that would plague them for the remainder of the season. This year we got to meet those problems a week early, but I'll gladly take a 54-10 clunker of a win (in my day, the Buckeyes struggling would mean Sickos-quality 10-7 wins). The good news is that the Buckeyes didn't let their lackluster first half dictate the game, and this should come as no surprise. Wilson and Knowles have been brilliant this year at halftime adjustments; the Buckeyes lead the nation in 3rd quarter offense and 3rd quarter scoring margin. That's bad news for the Nittany Lions, as I don't see a lot of positions at which they hold a talent or scheme advantage. Either the Buckeyes get out to a quick lead and never look back, or they have to struggle for a half and turn on the jets after the bands take the field. Sean Clifford is not good enough to take advantage of any problems Ohio State may have at corner, and they don't have the receivers this year for the standard Penn State "Five Hundred!" offense to work. And our favorite maize and blue villains have shown that playing the Lions could very well be good for whatever ails your running game. Buckeyes limit their mistakes and cruise to 8-0. OSU: 41--PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: What is Penn State this year? They still have Sean Clifford and a defense that got bullied by TUN. So, it appears to be a typical James Franklin team. Yes this game is on the road in a very hostile environment, but one gets the sense this Buckeyes team welcomes it. Overall, the Buckeye offense is just too much to handle. 

OSU: 45--PSU: 17
Seeberg: Looks good on paper doesn't it?  #2 vs. #13.  #2 on the road in a notoriously hostile environment against a 1-loss conference foe?  All the makings of an excellent game.  But I just don't see it.  The Nittanies had their doors blown off by UM to the tune of 418 rushing yards in a game they lost by 24 and it honestly wasn't that close.  The strength of their defense is the pass D and it should be a decent challenge for Stroud and his litany (look at me rhyming with Nittany!) of receivers, but the run game HAS to get going after being largely thwarted by Iowa last week.  I know Day's instinct is to chuck it all over the yard, but the PSU linebackers are largely suspect and a heavy dose of Henderson and Williams is just what the OC should order.  Also, did you know the Buckeyes have SEVEN pick-6s since 2002 against Penn State?  Twice they had two in one game!  Somehow, Clifford hasn't been a victim...yet.  He already threw an awful one week one against Purdue, I think it's time for a second.  Run the ball, keep everyone healthy, and do your best to get out of that podunk Happy Valley before dusk.  OSU: 38--PSU: 13

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over TCU
Hoying: California over Oregon
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame over Syracuse
Seeberg:  Nebraska over Illinois