Week 7: The Playoff Gatekeeper

Standings:

1.) Hoying 19-5 (1-5 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 18-6 (0-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (2-4 upset)
3.) Draper 16-8 (1-5 upset)

Some of us at Let's Go Bucks! have expressed concern about the effects of Playoff expansion on the importance of the regular season. The effect has been undeniable, though it has now twice allowed the Buckeyes to win national championships despite suffering losses to terrible opponents that would have otherwise knocked them out of title contention. Well, here we are in Week 7, and for several of the nation's top teams, a win this week would all but guarantee them a Playoff berth absent a string of bizarre upsets down the stretch. 

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Bama seems to be getting their sea-legs and taking back the throne.  Yeah, the score of the Vandy game made it look like a bigger blowout than it was, but they fought through the beginning onslaught and grabbed control in the second half (and Vandy is actually good).  I honestly know very little to nothing about the Tigers other than Beau Pribula is the QB (and PSU is lamenting his departure). Ty Simpson could very easily grab control of a very fractured Heisman race with a big Tide win, but I don't think this is a blowout.  Mizzou is a decent team and it's tough to go into Columbia.  Regardless, the Tide feels somewhat inevitable once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.  Bama: 30--Mizz: 20
Hoying: Is it possible to win a game by multiple scores and still feel gross afterwards? The Tide ran off 23 straight points after Vanderbilt went up 14-7 almost (but not quite) right before half, but it was still kind of a troubling win for Alabama. Life hasn't exactly been easy for Missouri either, having to weather a big first quarter from Kansas and rally in the 4th quarter against South Carolina, both at home. Bama can't run the ball worth a lick but that won't really matter against the Tigers, as both the Jayhawks and the Gamecocks buttered their bread through the air against Missouri, and Tide QB Ty Simpson is making a midseason push for the Heisman (so long as voters continue to ignore anyone in Scarlet and Gray). Bama's defense has been a little suspect in the red zone and on late downs, but I still don't think the Tigers will be able to score enough to keep up with them. Bama: 27--Mizz: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama slayed the Vandy beast. Seriously, that was a thing last year. Is that enough to halt the upstart Tigers? Maybe. Mizzou is one of those teams I will pick against until the prove me otherwise. Bama wins...close. Bama: 21--Mizz: 20
Seeberg: Bama’s not-as-hard-as-SEC-homers-want-you-to-believe-but-still-tough schedule continues on the road this time. Vandy wasn’t last year’s version, and this Bama team isn’t last years either, but in a better way. Mizzou has played nobody but handled their business, led by the nation’s leading rusher in Ahmad Hardy. Bama would rather air it out with Ty and Ryan Williams (despite a ton of drops). Other than the Oklahoma game on the Tide’s schedule I think they win out, but this is a tricky matchup. Hey, at least one Penn State QB is playing well. Mizzou grinds the clock and gets the big time W. Bama: 20—Mizz: 24

Indiana Hoosiers @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I have no idea what to think here.  I have doubted IU for the entire Cignetti era and he keeps making me look stupid (except in the Shoe--Google it).  I've also heard about the absolute monster that Lanning has built with the Ducks...but I doubt that as well.  The huge win at the PSU White Out has certainly lost its luster after hapless UCLA with a new coaching staff didn't need 2OT to embarrass Franklin and Co.  I do think the Ducks are solid, and that Moore is able to orchestrate the offense well...but MENDOZA has the Hoosiers clicking at a super high level (Iowa outstanding).  What's missed here is that the IU defense has some players on it as well (as seen in their demolishing of Illinois).  All this leads to a very boring conclusion: teams just don't go into Eugene and win big games (see 2024 OSU).  The environment is going to be nuts which will be the difference in a (surprisingly) low scoring Duck victory.  Ind: 20--Oregon: 27 (AFLAC trivia answer before the game: Who was the last B1G Team to beat Oregon in Eugene? Answer: Indiana)
Hoying: Depending on how the Indiana - Penn State game plays out, this could, no joke, be the biggest regular season game of the year. Indiana hasn't lost a step from their head-turning breakout season last year, running up 63 on Illinois before surviving the sandwich of all sandwich games last week at the place where promising seasons go to die, Kinnick Stadium. Win this one, and suddenly nobody cares that you played three wet sacks of paint during the nonconference slate: you get five more wet sacks of Big Ten paint and Penn State, and 11-1 almost assuredly gets you back to the Playoff. Of course, their opponent is no slouch either. The Ducks are also keeping pace with last year's maiden voyage through the Big Ten, and now the script brings another contender from the Eastern Time Zone to Autzen for a monster midseason matchup. I do not think that 2025 Indiana is as good as 2024 Ohio State was (probably no team except for 2025 Ohio State is), but if you remember the knife's edge that last year's game turned on, you'd be forgiven for thinking the Hoosiers have a real live chance to win this one and seize control of the Big Ten. And the advanced stats would agree; the closest that either of these teams has to a weakness is a slight softness in Oregon's run defense. That's bad news against an Indiana team that put up 312 on the ground against the Illini (hello, Bo Jackson), but the Hoosiers only averaged 2.7 yards per carry against upset-minded Iowa. Ultimately, I think this one comes down to the environment. Strange things have happened when Big Ten teams have had to cross multiple time zones this season, with Ohio State strangling Washington and Oregon escaping Penn State being the outliers. The x-factor of travel and the Autzen environment do just enough to put the Ducks ahead and on pace for another possible 12-0 season. Ind: 31--Ore: 32
Schweinfurth: I guess we finally get to figure out if these teams are for real. I still have questions about Indiana, but they have passed all of their tests to this point. Oregon has looked the part. They haven't missed a beat after losing Gabriel to the *checks notes* Browns...Anyway. I see this as a shoot out. I have questions about the Hoosier defense, and I think Oregon's D was bailed out by the Franklin/Allar tandem. Take the west cost team at home on these. IU: 38--Ore: 42
Seeberg: A year and a half into Cignetti’s IU program and his only two losses are still to the champs and runners up last year. He might get them to the playoff again before he bolts for Penn State or Florida. Regardless, a trip out to Eugene is always tough, especially when your star WR gets a bogus PI call late in the 4th. Moore and Mendoza can spin it and IU has legit talent: 5 of the top 125 prospects in next year’s draft according to a comprehensive list I saw earlier this week. That same list showed EIGHT Ducks in the top 150. IU is good, not just smoke and mirrors, but it’s just not enough to win at Austen. Ducks late. IU: 27—Ore: 37

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Texas is in trouble, folks.  It's not just the losses, but how they have looked.  I've watched a few Longhorn games and they simply aren't a sound consistent team.  Missed assignments, dropped passes, Arch looking like he needs his Warby Parker glasses to see his receivers....this list goes on.  However, this is a rivalry to 'throw out the record books'.  For another wildcard, John Mateer is planning on returning to lead the Sooner offense after hand surgery when this seemed a total pipe dream a few weeks ago.  Of all the units on the field, the Sooner defense is legit.  Texas has actually faced 2 really good defenses this year....and lost to both.  The question remains about Mateer's hand and the ability of the Longhorn defense to wreak havoc.  I would not be surprised if Texas comes out and rights the ship here, but the spiral is real.  This is the death knell if they can't pull it off, and a last seond FG seals their fate.  OU: 20--UT: 17
Hoying: So Texas is unranked 6 weeks after starting the season at #1. Big deal, week 7 rankings mean about as much as the preseason variety. What's more important is that Texas is running out of opportunities to impress the Playoff Committee, although with their schedule there's a chance they'll get a crack at 4 teams in or around the top 5 before the regular season is out. The Sooners, meanwhile, are riding high and might even get their QB John Mateer back for the Red River Shootout. Mateer may be a bit overrated (was he really any better than Jackson Arnold the day the Sooners beat Auburn?) but nowhere near the flop that Arch Manning has produced through his first 5 games. And you can't even point to the Texas defense saving the day in this one; Texas gave up 29 points to DJ Lagway after Oklahoma put Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines in a blender a few weeks ago. I don't see a reason for Oklahoma not to win this one walking away. OU: 27--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Can we officially say Arch was crowned too soon? I think so. Oklahoma looks to be a very good team. More so than the Longhorns. This is the Red River Shootout, so expect the unexpected. Except Oklahoma wins. Maybe Arch actually looks competent? That would be unexpected. OU: 35--UT: 27
Seeberg: Is Mateer playing? Has Arch been replaced by a cyborg bent on the destruction of Texas? To answer both:  Of course not…but maybe? Texas can’t really block for Arch who now sidearms every other throw. Colin Simmons has 0 sacks against P4 opponents and, not coincidentally, the Longhorns have 0 wins against said competition. OU, meanwhile, lists Mateer as probable?? I’ll believe it when I see it. Either way, they are trotting out the #2 defense in America (behind only your Silver Bullets). These factors all lead me to believe this so-called shootout will look more akin to Tressel-ball. OU has the talent to thwart Arch and Co like the Bucks did, and if Mateer does get healthy they are undoubtedly the SEC’s best chance at reclaiming the throne. OU: 20—UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: There are so many teams I feel like I can't get a grip on this year.  USC has been Jekyll and Hyde with explosive offense...until the first 3 quarters vs Illinois (the comeback was real until their defense pooped the bed).  TTUN is even more confusing with a freshman phenom that is solid in the run game but looks clueless in the passing game.  The bread and butter for the Wolverines is Justice Haynes and the running game, but this defense in SoCal is serviceable (I won't say 'good').  Makai Lemon is an explosive receiver for the Trojans that should keep a good (not great) UM defense guessing.  Michigan had to fight at home to take down the Badgers who simply are not good. If SC can limit the explosive running plays and stay on schedule offensively, they will grab control.  So long a Riley stays out of his own way, Maiava gets a nice ranked win in the B1G and sends the Wolverines home crying.  UM: 20--USC: 23
Hoying: Indiana - Oregon may be the biggest game of the week, but this one may be the most intriguing. For four weeks, USC looked like they might have the pieces in place to make a deep run in the Playoff, and then the defense didn't get off the bus against Illinois. It's not like the Trojans were particularly stifling before their ill-fated trip to Champaign, and they did still put up 32 points to briefly take the lead late, but suddenly this is starting to look like the same old USC, with a brilliant offense being sabotaged by another unreliable defense. At least they can't blame Alex Grinch this time. That being said, this game is in LA, and Bryce Underwood has been doing his best Davis Warren impression in Michigan's road games this year, leading to an ugly loss to Oklahoma and a close win against Nebraska. I expect this game to look very much like last year's version, with Michigan bashing their heads against the wall again and again and USC staying in control only to the extent they decide not to do something idiotic. I honestly have no idea if Lincoln Riley has the self restraint needed not to throw this one away. But there'll be no friendly Michigan crowd coming to the rescue with their horrendous rendition of a basement dumpster-tier pop song. Trojans keep their Playoff hopes alive until the 1-2 punch of Notre Dame and Oregon finish them off for good. USC: 27--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I can't read either of these teams. USC had their chance against Illinois, but pooped themselves pretty spectacularly. I don't know what to think of the Wolverines. They are getting better, but I still have questions. West coast team man. USC: 21--UM: 17
Seeberg: Man I hate picking games like this…and not just because the cheaters and best are involved. It’s classic strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. The Trojans had 490 yards of offense against the soon-to-be-mentioned Illini…yet still lost because they gave up over 500 yards. On offense, I don’t trust UM’s so-called WRs to do much, but Justice Haynes is for real and should have a big day. Can Maiava and Lemon make enough plays for USC to stay in it? Sure. Win it? I sure hope so, but sadly this feels a lot like last year’s game: a game you think UM should lose, but USC finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bleh. UM: 23—USC: 20

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: The Buckeyes had a tall mountain to climb this offseason after losing an entire team to the NFL last year, but it hasn't made the difference that exodus traditionally produces.  Sayin has been efficient, the receivers remain elite, the running game is emerging under Bo Jackson, and the defense remains a force.  Going on the road to Illinois was circled (along with the trip to Seattle) as the 2 potential trap games.  Washington faced the wrath of this defense and I expect more in Champaign.  Day likes to keep things close to the vest in games like this.  Don't be dumb, let the talent shine, leave with a victory.  While I don't expect fireworks on offense, the Illini showed some real question marks in their (lack of) tackling, especially vs. IU. Altmyer is a strong senior QB but we don't know which version will appear.  If he's on (like vs. SC), the defense will have to step up to the plate.  If he's off (like IU),...uh oh.  I think he'll be in the middle, but Feagin will have nightmares about Downs (Heisman talk please?), Styles, and Reese.  I was nervous about this game until I saw how well the young Buckeyes weathered the storm in Seattle.  Road games are never easy, but in Bo we trust.  OSU: 37--Ill: 10
Hoying: I have been reserving judgment on the 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes. Outside of the season opener, which was very unusual for several reasons, the Buckeyes haven't been sufficiently tested for me to award them the crown or the jester's cap. After all, the 2019 Ohio State Buckeyes might have been the greatest team in program history, and after obliterating some good-to-great teams along the way, they failed to rise to the occasion against the first elite team they faced. Illinois is not an elite team. They're a good, possibly very good team, certainly better than the -53 differential they put up against the Hoosiers a couple of weeks ago. But the problem is, they don't have any strengths to exploit. Oh, Luke Altmyer has done some damage through the air this season? Take a look at what Ohio State just did to Demond Williams and Drake Lindsey, both pretty decent QBs. The Illini defense is a horror show; they haven't given up 63 points since the Bloomington Beatdown but they did surrender 32 and 27 points in wins against USC and Purdue. Ohio State has six losses in the prior three seasons: two were games where the Buckeye offense was flummoxed against elite D-line play for 60 minutes straight, and the other four were against teams who spent time during the season ranked #1 or #2. Illinois is not going to be ranked in the top two this year. This is not a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung. I still don't know how good this team is, but if they can get out of Champaign with another single-digit performance by the Silver Bullets, the next six games become Day's personal playtime to get whatever pieces he wants in place before another Playoff run. Bucks win big, again. OSU: 37--Ill: 10

Schweinfurth: Illinois has looked okay so far, except for that blowout against...Indiana. This game IS Illinois' season at this point. Champaign has always been rough on the Bucks. All that wind. Every. Year. Day has this offense building towards something special again. I don't know if Bert has the answers to stop this offense. The fake to Smith and bomb to Tate showed how hard it is to stop the Bucks offense. The Silver Bullets look the part. They are so well coached and rally to the ball so quick. This should be over by the start of the fourth quarter, but we have seen stranger things. OSU: 35--Ill: 9
Seeberg: Did you know the last 5 ranked meetings between these 2 have all been won by Illinois? Hard to remember because it’s been 25 years since the first of those 5 took place but still crazy. That’s about the only stat in the Illini’s favor in this one. For those unaware, they rank 119th in pass defense (a mere 115 spots behind OSU), and Day just started to unleash Julian last week. Even Purdue managed 27 points against them last week. I do think this is the week that someone FINALLY scores double digits against us, with a TD likely in garbage time or on a scripted drive that somebody finally manages to pay off. Either way, start fast to get the home crowd subdued, stick it to Bert with a couple of bombs to JJ, and get out of there. OSU: 38—Ill: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over A&M
Hoying: Kansas over Texas Tech
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Tennessee
Seeberg: NW over Penn State (jk…can you imagine though??) UCF over Cincinnati 

Week 6: Silver Bullets and Golden Gophers

Standings:

1.) Hoying 15-5 (1-4 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (0-5 upset)
3.) Draper 13-7 (1-4 upset)
4.) Seeberg 12-8 (2-3 upset)

Today we take a tour across the college football landscape as pivotal matchups in each of the Power 4 conferences (OK, one maybe not so much) will cement a few more key pieces into the Playoff puzzle

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: An epic showdown in Tuscaloosa as David leaves the friendly confines of Nashville to confront Goliath.  If we don't remember Diego Pavia leading the Commodores to a monumental upset last year, I'm SURE that ESPN won't let you forget it during gameday.  What they'll also say is that Vandy might actually be...good? While this may be the case, the Dores are going up against a fully armed and operational battle station.  Bama was shockingly mid last year (for them), but they've taken control ever since the loss to FSU.  I don't see Vandy keeping this one close.  The Tide will seek revenge and the always collect their debts.  Ty Simpson and Co. win big.  Vandy: 17--Bama: 40
Hoying: Congratulations to the Dores on their first 5-0 start since 2008, coming off of their first winning season since James Franklin (yes, that James Franklin) was calling the shots. Fun fact about Vanderbilt: after the whirlwind tours that Indiana and Iowa State took last season, Vandy is the only Power 4 team to never have a double-digit win season. And it’s not going to get any easier this year, with a brutal 6 road games on the schedule. Of course, Vanderbilt already handled two of those (VT and South Carolina) with aplomb, but the Tide are a bit of a step up in difficulty, and they are angry. I don’t care how passably good Vanderbilt was last season; losing to them as Alabama is like losing to Minnesota as Ohio State: it just isn’t done (spoilers). The thing is, this year’s Vanderbilt team is actually pretty good, with one of the more potent offenses in the country helmed by Heisman candidate (!) Diego Pavia. And unlike Bama’s woefully one-dimensional offense, the Dores can actually run the ball, too. That being said, the Tide couldn’t run a lick against Georgia and it didn’t slow them down any, as they lit the Dawgs up through the air and stymied Gunner Stockton all game in return. Vanderbilt is good enough to do this again, not from an upset alert perspective but strength-on-strength. I just think the talent in the Alabama passing game will be a bit too much for Vandy to overcome. You can still take one more loss and get to 10 wins, Dores. Vandy: 20--Bama: 27
Schweinfurth: Vandy is a great story to this point and it would be funny to see Diego Pavia catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row. I don't see that happening. The Tide are out for revenge. Vandy: 28--Bama: 38
Seeberg: In 2025 this is a competitive game. Insanity. Vandy may have caught a down Tide squad last year, but there’s no surprises this time around. Bama isn’t letting Diego continue to yap nonsense. Roll Tide. Vandy: 20–Bama: 34

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Draper: Houston is certainly sneaking around the chicken coop with that Holgo offense, but the schedule leaves much to the imagination.  The Red Raiders have the win over Utah which is solid as a road win (although the score is a bit more lopsided than what happened.  Regardless, I have more faith in a highly paid and talented roster from Lubbock over the recent Big12 additions.  Tech defense shined against Utah in a tough road environment.  Expect more of the same here.  TT: 30--UH: 17
Hoying: Remember what I said a couple weeks ago about fast starts for the Red Raiders? Yeah, they only went up 10-0 on Utah to start that game but they still never trailed. In fact, TTU is one of three teams this season that hasn’t trailed at all (stupid failed 4th-and-1 against Washington). Houston, meanwhile, is putting up a measly 31 points per game against world-beaters like Stephen F. Austin, Rice, and Oregon State. Yeah, the Cougs have been playing decent defense against those teams but so could you and I. Stick with the hot hand. TTU: 34—Hou: 17
Schweinfurth: I'll go back to what I said last week. Texas Tech's D is legit. That should be enough to slow the Cougs down. TT: 35--UH: 21
Seeberg: I expect the Cougar crowd to be up for this one and that should keep things competitive for a half or so, but TTU’s suddenly pricy roster should be stocked enough to pull away from a pesky Houston team. This isn’t basketball after all. TT: 38—UH: 17

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate.  The Noles look to rebound after a clunker in Charlottesville against a decent to good UVA team.  This game provides the path to redemption.  Miami has been fantastic all year, but this FSU team will be the first offense it's faced (yes, yes, Notre Dame is looking good, but that was a freshman QB's first start).  Castellanos should be able to get loose and make the ball hawking Canes defense feel some pain after seeing what Carr did on the ground.  Honestly, this FSU team appears to be very Jekyll and Hyde.  Here's hoping we get the good one here.  Let's not forget this is the Canes first game outside of Hard Rock this season.  Beck shouldn't be bothered by the road noise, but it will be difficult for the rest of the team.  You know I'm not picking them.  FMFFM. UM: 27--FSU:34
Hoying: Well, this was ALMOST as exciting as the heavyweight battles in the 80’s and 90’s (nice faceplant, FSU), but it still has serious implications for the ACC and Playoff races. Tommy Castellanos has been a nice novelty act for the Noles (Bama had NO idea what to do with him), but unfortunately he’s not facing the 2024 Miami defense. This year’s team has brought the swagger back to south Florida, and while no one will be mistaking them for the Silver Bullets anytime soon, they’re playing well enough to challenge for the national title when paired with the dangerous Miami offense. Carson Beck isn’t quite the gunslinger that Cam Ward was, but again, the pieces are all in place to make a deep push in the Playoff. This might be the last major obstacle that the Canes face until the ACC Championship, and if Florida State loses here to start 0-2 in conference, you can kiss any hope of a rematch goodbye. The wheels aren’t falling off in Tallahassee, but a return to the Playoff might need to wait another year. UM: 31—FSU: 26
Schweinfurth: Sorry Chief, Miami is hot right now. I'm just not sure if the Noles can hang. UM: 42--FSU: 38
Seeberg: The sunshine state is resurgent! (Gators notwithstanding). FSU’s win looks better over Bama each week, regardless of how ESECPN tries to spin it. The U, meanwhile, look like the closest thing to a challenger that Oregon and OSU have in the country. Beck is a couple notches above serviceable again, and the Hurricanes D-line sets the table for their back 7. Neither team has elite playmakers on offense, so I’m going with the better defense in this game. Sorry Chief. UM: 27— FSU: 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: There's always a lot of energy on the Gopher sideline with Coach Fleck, but I don't think his offense is going to have much pep in their step going up against the Bullets at night in the Shoe. The Gophers best win is...checks notes... over Rutgers at home....by 3.  This could get ugly quick.  Minnesota isn't Grambling, but they're a far cry from Texas (or even Washington). I think the Ohio game is a nice comp, but I think Day will have the Buckeyes playing a little more aggressively on offense.  Sayin has gone on the road and brought home a dub so it's time to try different techniques.  While I'd love a game that is over by halftime (I miss last year's Rose Bowl), the Buckeyes seem to be playing with their food while rope-a-doping the competition.  This is the game where we work some downfield shots and show that Tate is a great receiver as well.  Another ho-hum victory on Homecoming.  UM: 10 (booooooo double digits)--OSU: 48 
Hoying: What am I supposed to say at this point? The Buckeye defense looks incredible again, and they’re about to lay the hammer against another hopelessly outmatched opponent. I suppose weeks like this are when Day gets to tinker and plant some seeds that will hopefully bear fruit later this season while he otherwise puts the other team to sleep with 50 offensive plays or so. What I would like to see is whether this team can get a yard when they absolutely need it. Short yardage situations were the Buckeyes’ Achilles heel from 2021-23 (remember that awful Egbuka end around that just about lost the Notre Dame game?) but Chip Kelly seemed to have turned a corner last season. Then CJ Donaldson got stonewalled on 4th and 1 from the Washington 5 and the Buckeyes ended up trailing for the first time all season. I’m not saying we have to prove what a tough hard-nosed running team we are (throwing the ball to CJ worked just fine at the end of the game), but the red zone failures are going to cost us at some point if we find ourselves in a game like last year’s Cotton Bowl (or, you know, the other one). It’s not going to make a difference against Minnesota, but let’s see some progress in that department. Then again, if we don’t face a third and short all day, that’s fine too. OSU: 45—Minn: 3
Schweinfurth: The Silver Bullets look legit. Minnesota's QB already has issues moving the ball and now they have to see this monster. It's Homecoming, so it makes sense we get a blowout. OSU: 48--Minn: 6
Seeberg: Ah yes, the night game we all wanted(?) The Gophers come calling to a subdued OSU offense. Get used to it people, Day has his formula for these way-too-long-but-rich-people-needed-even-more-money college football seasons. Slow the pace, limit the reps to keep everyone healthy, then let it rip come December. Worked last year, who’s to argue? I do wish some young guys on both sides of the ball could get a few extra reps, but I get not messing with success. Might not be a flashy “bottom line” score, but Ws are always welcome. Fleck looked to have his best team up there since he took over…until they got beat by a true freshman QB leading ACC power Cal (weird to even type that). Keep everyone healthy, keep the D rolling, and onto the next. Minn: 10—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Virginia over Louisville
Hoying: Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Georgia
Seeberg: North Carolina over Clemson 

Week 5: B1G Dogs and SECond Fiddles

Standings:

1.) Hoying 11-4 (1-3 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-4 (0-4 upset)
3.) Draper 10-5 (1-3 upset)
4.) Seeberg 9-6 (2-2 upset)

Four of the top contenders in the Big Ten are on the road facing stiff opposition this week (sorry, Indiana, you were left off the list this time), while America's erstwhile premier conference has their own sorting out to do down south.

Southern California Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: Can Bert and Co. rebound from the absolute whooping they received last week? USC is an interesting team in that they MIGHT have something going in the City of Angels.  I think it's a bit premature to plan on the ascendency of the Trojans yet based on the (lack of) competition, but there might be some juice.  The Illini get to return home, but I don't know how to ignore what I saw last week.  The lack of fundamental tackling was appalling.  I'll keep the Trojans with the 0 in the loss column....for now.  USC: 30--Ill: 20
Hoying: In case the whining from Los Angeles hasn't reached you yet, USC closed out the week 4 action in the wee Sunday hours and now gets the day kicked off at 9 AM Pacific this Saturday. That won't seriously impact prep time but it is a symptom of life in the Atlantic and Pacific Coast Conference. However, it will take more than body clock recalibrating to slow down the Trojan offense. USC hasn't looked this lethal since Matt Leinart was handing the ball off to Reggie Bush. Now, you can say, "What about the defense?" but I don't recall USC giving up 63 points to anyone this season. I expect the Illini to bounce back at home, especially against a porous Trojan defense, but USC is just too explosive to wind up with the low score here. USC: 31--Ill: 27
Schweinfurth: I actually got to watch the IU/Ill game last week. Man, Bert's defense was absolutely exposed. It wasn't just guys running wide open down the field, they were chasing ghosts. Not to say USC is a world beater this year, they aren't. But they have to be better than whatever corpse the Illini are rolling into this game with. USC: 35--Ill: 17
Seeberg: What a slate this week! Let’s dive in. Bert got massively exposed in Bloomington last week. This year’s Indiana will not be the Illini (might just be Indiana again). At any rate, you know Lincoln Riley is licking his chops to get at this suddenly porous Illinois D. To be fair, Luke Altmeyer and Co will likely score more than 10 against USC’s mid D, but I don’t see them hanging for four quarters against superior talent. Trojans pull away late. USC: 38—Ill: 27

Louisiana State Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: This is a really interesting game.  The national media continues to crown the Tigers based on their week 1 win over #4 Clemson.  Sadly, the 1-3 Tigers are more kittens at this point.  The win over UF was a good one, but a lot of that credit goes to Lagway giving them the rock FIVE times (and even then, they never pulled away).  Ole Miss is going to be the first real test for the LSU defense.  Kiffikins will keep up the pressure, but I can never tell if this is the week Ole Miss faceplants. I think it's early in the season, the offense is strong enough to bend the Tigers, and it's in The Grove.  With that, I'll lean on the Rebs to pull out a big W and enter the playoff conversation.  LSU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Remember in week 1, when the SEC heads were scrambling on a team to crown after Texas stumbled, and they all coalesced around LSU after their "dominant" win over Clemson? You could say that may have been a bit of an overreaction, and you'd be right, but Kirk Herbstreit had LSU as his #1 team last week. Judging by how Miami jumped up to #2 last week, I suppose beating Florida is going to count as a quality win for about 10 different teams this year. What were we talking about again? Oh yes, overrated LSU. It's not like Ole Miss has been setting the world on fire either, struggling to put away mediocre Kentucky and Arkansas. But much like the matchup above, one of these teams is much more consistent on offense than the other, and you don't have to guess which team that is when Lane Kiffin is involved. Yes, the LSU defense has been successful, but their suffocating performance against Florida was largely turnover-driven. And as anyone who watched the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes can tell you, turnover-driven defenses work until they don't. Ole Miss hasn't been particularly careful with the football, but they're generally so efficient with their drives that it doesn't really matter. I expect the Rebs to do enough to further dent the Heisman campaign of another disgraced preseason favorite, Garrett Nussmeier, and the home team to do enough to walk away with the W here. LSU: 24--Miss: 30
Schweinfurth: I have watched ZERO SEC football this year outside of Texas/Ohio State. What I do know is that LSU is a bit of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. At some point it will happen. Why not this week. LSU: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Ooof. Not a fan of this matchup of mid-SEC teams. Yeah, I said it. Ole Miss beat those SEC juggernauts Arkansas and Kentucky by a combined 13 points. Not to be outdone, LSU beat how-haven’t-they-been-fired-yet Dabo and Billy Napier by just 17 points total. I also trust neither of these coaches in big games. Neither has won anything of consequence, and Kiffin was the OC who inexplicably stopped giving Derrick Henry the ball in the Sugar Bowl (thanks, from Buckeye Nation). For LSU, in a year chock full of mediocre QB play around the country, Nussmeyer still hasn’t separated himself from the pack. In the end, I think the Rebels’ rushing attack (if Kiffin uses it) with Kewan Lacy may be able to control the clock and limit the Tigers’ possessions. Get ready for a top 8 Lane Kiffin squad. Ugh. LSU: 17—Miss: 24

Oregon Ducks @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The marquee game is in Happy Valley this week and the Lions finally get their whiteout game against a good team. PSU is only 13-8 in whiteout games (which is a little low), but they've won the last 6 (although that includes 'juggernauts' of Minnesota, SMU in the playoff, Washington last year).  Not surprisingly, the last loss was against the Buckeyes in 2018 (before the rising of Big Noon).  However, I will note that that is a TOUGH environment to work through (see 2005).  Both teams have steamrolled their competition, but that was expected with the garbage in the non-conference.  This is a big test for Dante Moore and a (relatively) young Oregon team.  They're used to the spotlight, but Happy Valley will be extremely difficult at night.  The Lions have James Franklin and Drew Allar so they're not invincible, but the environment coupled with a decent night of game management from Allar will yield the first big PSU regular season win in the Franklin era since....2016 OSU on a blocked kick.  Franklin will try to mess it up, but the Lions get it done.  The all-in strategy still lives. UO: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: The Buckeyes' opponent this week, though undefeated, is not only unranked, but didn't get a single vote in the AP poll. "Big deal", you say, "they haven't played anybody yet." Oh yeah? Check out this murderer's row of Oregon and Penn State's opponents: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Nevada, FIU, Villanova. These teams have a combined ONE win over another FBS team (FIU over FAU), and yet these teams are both ranked in the top 6. Granted, both of them have looked really good (well, Oregon has), and both of them were supposed to compete for a title this year (well, Penn State was), but this is first time either is facing anything resembling a real test. When these two teams faced off in Indianapolis last season, Penn State ran wild up and down the field, but Drew Allar was merely OK while Dillon Gabriel was surgical. Now, Drew Allar has a senior's experience but Dante Moore is no spring chicken, and despite all of the Penn State glazing in the offseason I'm sure the latter has a higher ceiling than the former. It's tough to play at your best in White Out conditions but at least the Ducks can count on Big Game James to do something stupid with the outcome on the line (Chase Young sends his regards). Either way, the winner will have Indiana to worry about later this season, but the Ducks move into the driver's seat to challenge Ohio State for the big time prize once again. Ore: 31--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Guys, Drew Allar is NOT good. There is no way a Penn State team with that QB play should be ranked this high. And James Franklin still coaches the Nittany Kitties. The White Out factor is real, but it won't make up the QB talent gap. OU: 31--PSU: 17
Seeberg: I absolutely refuse to dig into any top 10 matchup involving Penn State until Franklin wins one. Ducks dub. OU: 27—PSU: 17

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Honestly, this game is the top game of the week nearly every year, but it is overshadowed a touch by the showdown in Happy Valley and Bama's perceived fall from grace.  Regardless, Sanford Stadium will be rocking between the hedges and the Tide looks to reascend to the mountaintop.  UGA remains the new standard of SEC excellence since the departure of Saban, but I think Kirby's perch is getting a tad shaky.  Don't get me wrong: the Dawgs are a very good team, but I don't think the talent differential is that great between UGA and the rest of the SEC.  The UT game exposed some flaws in that defense and Austin Peay kept it much closer than expected (Let's Go Peay!).  Bama seems to be powering up after being embarrassed by my Noles in week 1.  The bettors like Georgia, but I'm going to lean on the power rankings and pick the Tide to get a HUGE road win and temper some of the heat on Deboer.  Ryan Williams and Ty Simpson will have a game and, once again, remind Kirby who the big dog is in the SEC.  Bama: 27--UGA: 24
Hoying: Many elite coaches have that one team that, for whatever reason, they struggle to beat. Jim Tressel had Wisconsin, Urban Meyer had Michigan State, Ryan Day why are you wasting your time reading this, and Kirby Smart is eternally flummoxed by Alabama. The Tide may be foundering a bit in the Kalen DeBoer era, but they still found time to beat Georgia last year, and the Dawgs didn't look terribly impressive in stealing a win from Tennessee last week either. UGA was absolutely gashed through the air in Knoxville, and that doesn't bode well for facing the pass-happy Tide and the best receiver south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Who will step up to be the SEC's standard bearer this season? Bama: 34--UGA: 28
Schweinfurth: I don't think Bama is very good. Georgia is better, but not by much. Bama: 21--UGA 31
Seeberg: Well here we are again. Kirby’s nemesis. Though, to be fair, Bama ran college football with Saban at the helm. One has to think Smart’s 1-6 record against the Tide will improve now, right? Perhaps not. Bama has looked, well, like Bama since an opening week loss to a resurgent Seminole squad. Ty Simpson has been solid, with similar numbers to Gunnar. However, it’s the run game that may separate these two. UGA has 4 players with over 100 yards rushing this season and Bama isn’t even averaging 125 ypg. Between the hedges, I expect the Bulldogs to control the flow of the game and get Kirby his second W against the Tide. Bama: 20—UGA: 27

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies
Draper: I'm a bit bearish on the Buckeyes this weekend.  I do think we get the win (spoiler alert), but there are a few concerns.  Husky Stadium is a tough place to play and the UW faithful really believe their team is a contender.  Whether or not this is the case, the belief will ratchet up the pressure if the Buckeyes don't start hot.  B1G eastern teams have struggled on the West Coast, but I don't know how much is simply homefield vs travel.  The Husky offense is pretty darn good and will challenge the Buckeye secondary who showed a few gaps against Texas that Manning (thankfully) handed right into the ground.  Finally, this is Sayin's first road start.  Anyone's first start is tough, but a (redshirt) freshman on the road in a tough environment is a tall order. I'm hoping the offense can be methodical and matriculate the ball down the field will a couple haymakers to Smith and Tate (and maybe a little running game....please....more Bo?), and the defense can shut down the Huskies early.  If we get into a hole early, it will be tough to get out.  The good news? The Bucks are the more talented team by a healthy margin.  Play your game, don't be dumb, and we'll escape the West Coast unscathed. OSU: 27--UW: 17
Hoying: As stated above, the Huskies are not ranked, not even receiving a single vote in the AP poll. This may be a product of having played Colorado State, Washington State, and Nobody FCS so far, but they've looked the part ever since being tied with CSU halfway through the third quarter of the opener. You'd think an undefeated team two years removed from the CFP National Championship Game would garner a bit more respect. But I just don't think the  Huskies' early season pattern will hold against a team as talented and well coached as Ohio State. Washington has a very narrow path to victory, and it requires leaning hard on dual threat QB Demond Williams and his killer RB - WR combo of Jonah Coleman and David Denzel Boston. But gone are the bad old days of the Silver Bullets letting one pesky player win the game all on his own (looking at you, Rondale Moore and almost Anthony McFarland). Besides, on the other side of the ball, UW is dealing with multiple injuries, and they aren't that stout of a defensive unit to begin with. My only concern is in the red zone and short yardage situations. Last year was the first time in the modern Day era that I felt confident the Buckeyes could consistently gain a yard when they absolutely needed to, and while the jury is still out on this season, I haven't been impressed with the results so far. If that means making Lincoln Kienholz the red zone specialist, then by all means do it! Work some of that Chip Kelly magic and don't be afraid to make the QB a weapon in the run game as well. Although, if Julian Sayin and the standard Brian Hartline death squad continue to have the success with the deep ball that they've been having (and they should against this Washington defense), I'm not sure it will matter just yet. Buckeyes take the loud body blows in Seattle but come out no worse for the wear. OSU: 34--UW: 17
Schweinfurth: The Husky offense feels legit. It feels better than what we saw out of the Longhorns. They've punted twice! This is a step up in competition for Washington, but it is also the first road test for Sayin. He's looked good this year and is the most accurate passer in CFB. The Bucks can stretch the field, but they can also pound it. Washington NEEDS this game to be a shootout to say in it. I think the score reflects this, but the Bucks pull away late. Bo Jackson breaks another big one and JJ Smith keeps moving toward that Heisman. OSU: 35--UW: 24

Seeberg: Quite frankly, as much as I do think the Huskies are woefully underrated (east coast bias might be real), I’m sick of hearing about how great they are. All I’ve heard on every show and from every talking head is how great their offense is and what a test it will be. Fine, cool. Anyone notice the other half of the coin? The Washington D is middling at best, and they’re out a starting LB and potentially their number 2 corner. AND they play primarily man. AND Sayin is leading the nation in completion percentage. AND Jeremiah Smith is an alien. We will certainly get some stops, and I just don’t expect their defense to hang for four quarters. Bucks open it up and win going away. OSU: 38—UW: 20

Upset Special

Draper: Iowa over Indiana
Hoying: Auburn over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Colorado over BYU
Seeberg: Mississippi State over Tennessee

Week 4: The Playoff Push Begins

Standings:

1.) Draper 8-2 (1-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 7-3 (1-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 7-3 (0-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 6-4 (1-2 upset)

Conference play begins in earnest across the landscape (well, not so much in the ACC), and a lot of early season 3-0 hopefuls are squaring off in the hopes of positioning themselves as early front-runners to grab one of 12 lucrative Playoff berths. September may be for pretenders, but we'll soon find out whose make believe journey will crash and burn before October even arrives.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Big 12 feels like a grab-bag week in and week out.  Along with Iowa State, these two teams are the frontrunners in the conference game, and this week could go a long way to deciding the Big 12 Championship Game appearance.  Texas Tech is the new hotness with that oil money being dumped in, but old stalwart Utah looks pretty good.  Devon Dampier has been solid at QB and I think he's the difference.  Rice Eccles is rocking for a Big Noon game, but the Utes QB leads the team to victory.  TTU: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: These two teams have looked fantastic so far against a six-pack of wet paper sacks. And Big 12 conference play hasn't even started yet, wait until they get to play the teams that lost to Ohio and Army. Utah was a heavy favorite to win the first edition of the new-look Big 12 last season before heavily faceplanting down the stretch, while TTU hasn't challenged for a conference title since Michael Crabtree shocked Longhorn Nation all the way back in 2008. But the winner of this game should be in the driver's seat for the climb atop the nation's least prestigious "major" conference. The Utes stumbled out to a close halftime lead last week against Wyoming before pulling away for a comfortable win in the second half (sounds familiar), while Texas Tech has scored at least 45 straight points to open all 3 of their games so far this year (looks like that NIL war chest is paying off already). I like the Red Raiders to keep rolling on the road. TTU: 34--Utah: 28
Schweinfurth: I saw a stat that Texas Tech was one of the top defenses in the country. That's a far cry from the Mike Leach Air Raid days. Past that, I need to go with my instinct. Texas Tech wins. TTU: 30--Utah 17
Seeberg: I’m not going to act like an expert on either of these teams. What I do know, however, is that the Utes are a tough matchup at home, and though total talent may be on the side of the Red Raiders, the cohesiveness year over year at Utah is rare these days, and it will show up late in a close, entertaining win. TTU: 27–Utah: 31

Auburn Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Jackson Arnold....REVENGE.  There is so much said about Auburn due to his acquisition, but they've been pretty mid thus far (against garbage).  At least OU put together a win against TTUN...even though they did everything in their power to blow it.  Mateer directed a nice offensive attack and the Sooner defense was lights out (if they laid off the dumb penalties).  If they can play a clean game, that Venables D is a scary sight.  Add to it that it's in Norman and I think Hugh Freeze and the Tigahs get a dose of reality in the new SEC.  Aub: 10--OU: 20
Hoying: Welcome to the Jackson Arnold Bowl. After a disastrous 2024 for the Sooners which saw him finish with a dreadful QBR of 47.9 (including a 1.2 in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee), the cast-off QB has found happy landings at Auburn, where he's quietly put together a better young season than OU's shiny new Heisman candidate transfer QB John Mateer. Now, Arnold is doing this against teams like Baylor while Mateer had to face Michigan (who, in all fairness, looked lost on defense against OU), but it's still odd to see a QB leave Oklahoma and get dramatically better. We're not in the Bob Stoops / Lincoln Riley era anymore, folks. But, on the other side of the ball, the Brent Venables era seems to have finally reached Norman, as the Sooner defense has been stifling so far this season after a few false starts. OU put Bryce Underwood in a blender and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same to their old rock-slinger. Sooners stay deep in the hunt to challenge Georgia for the SEC title. Aub: 17--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma showed that Will Venables still knows how to play defense. Auburn, at least in my mind, is still lost since everyone can pay players now. Shocking, I know. OU wins close. Aub: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: I’m tired of seeing 90% of the SEC ranked. Auburn needs to lose this game solely for that reason, because OU would stay ranked with a loss (quality losses ftw!). The Sooners have officially embraced the SEC by playing defense finally, and that D will be just good enough…giggity. Aub: 20—OU: 27

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: Both teams enter undefeated, but neither has looked particularly sharp.  Ole Miss eked out 2 SEC wins against meh competition, but those 2 wins are much more solid than whatever Tulane has rolled out.  Tulane is the sneaky team for Group of 5 consideration and this is the game to cement their spot on the top of the pile.  However, I don't think they have the athletes to hang in this one.  Even if the Rebs start the backup QB (as presumed), the Wave need some magic to swing this at the Grove.  BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff is a decent talent, but the line play delivers another win for the SEC.  Tul: 16--Miss: 34
Hoying: I know, I know, this seems like a bit of a mismatch to put on here, but Tulane has a habit of making people (me) look like fools when they're underestimated. Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons may be out with an injury for a second week in a row, and while Trinidad Chambliss was no slouch in relief last week, the Rebs still struggled to put away Arkansas, and this was after letting Kentucky hang around all game the week prior. Tulane has taken care of business against Northwestern and Duke (who, in all fairness, might both be really bad) behind a decent offense and a serviceable defense, but they haven't seen anything like what Ole Miss is about to throw at them. No need to overthink this one. The Green Wave's path the the Playoff still runs through the AAC Championship. Tul: 17--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Again, this is an instinct pick for me. File it under, I've haven't had enough time to actually much football so far. Ole' Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Good news: Tulane is good, and feisty. Bad news, they’re good enough that Kiffin won’t allow his Ole Miss squad to overlook them. That will happen later this season to a random nonsensical SEC team. Rebels pull away. Tul: 20—Miss: 38

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: What is Michigan this year? What is Nebraska this year? Does anybody really know what time it is? I honestly have no clue.  Underwood looked like a deer in headlights in Norman and 'batman' against powerhouse Central Michigan.  Will Nebraska under Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola ever deliver? The biggest issue for the maize and blue is that their defense isn't the monster we saw the last few years.  While the offense took a slight step forward with Justice Haynes and an upgrade at QB, the defense has regressed after so much talent went to the league.  This will come down to whether or not Nebraska can be competent on offense.  If Nebraska can stay ahead of the sticks and not shoot themselves in the foot, they might finally get a decent win for the first time in what feels like 10 years.  Flip a coin, but I'm guessing Underwood still isn't ready for the road and the Huskers win (?) a close game.  UM: 20--Neb: 23
Hoying: This is it, Nebraska. If you want to prove you belong back at the big boy table, it's time to finally beat an opponent with a pulse, something the Huskers arguably haven't done since snakebiting 2015 Playoff participant Michigan State Spartans. Then again, it's possible that the Wolverines are fraudulent this year as well. Sure, they looked great pummeling Central Michigan by a margin of 60 last week (take that, two-timing Connor Stalions), but they looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball the week prior in Norman. I'm not ready to declare last year an aberrant season for Michigan, or to herald Bryce Underwood as the next big thing, but I'll believe the Cornhuskers are back when I see it, and not a moment before. Don't be surprised if they limp along to lackluster losses to USC and Penn State along the way to another mediocre bowl berth. Plus, Sherrone Moore is still sidelined for this game, so the maize and blue can't help but overperform for one more week. Let's just hope his single suspended game next year isn't against us. UM: 27--Neb: 20
Schweinfurth: I can't pick Nebraska until they can actually win one of these games. Seriously, I have no faith in the Huskers to win big games, ESPECIALLY if they are close. This smells like a one score game to me. So the Huskers and wannabe Mahomes lose close again. UM: 20--Neb: 17
Seeberg: With the LARGE caveat that UM isn’t a “big” win, it feels like Nebraska has had several of these games to return to, at least second-tier national prominence over the past 20 years and just fallen flat on their face every time. Remarkably, two 5-star QBs headline this one (welcome to the NIL era officially). Underwood, however, looked dreadful in his first road test and I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat anyone of consequence. I’m not convinced the Huskers are in that category, but this W would go a long way towards it. Raiola leads a FG drive late and Underwood can’t match it. UM: 20—Neb: 23

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm actually surprised this isn't Gameday....  UF/UM is a nice 'rivalry' (kind of), but Florida is a Jekyll and Hyde team while we all hold our breath for the Beck collapse. This is a big time game in which we'll find if either of these teams is going to step up to be this year's....Indiana? Bert has people really drinking the Illini Kool Aid after the win over the Gamecocks in bowl season, but best guess is that these teams are actually both pretty mid 15-25 ranked teams that will bluster until they play someone of note (see IU last year).  Cignetti was very smart grabbing that money as soon as possible because keeping IU relevant will be a monumental task.  The QB transfer of MENDOZAAAAA has slung it nicely for the crimson while Altmyer has been fine for what seems like forever.  Neither team has played anyone (at all) so we'll out at least one of these teams as pretenders here.  I'm pretty surprised that the Hoosiers are favored by nearly a TD (and the line has moved more heavily in their favor.  Bloomington can be a little dangerous when IU believes (which they do), but at the end of the day, I lowkey think the Illini are better.  I'm going with boy genius Bert and hoping that he isn't able to fart this away.  Ill: 23--IU: 20
Hoying: And just like everyone foresaw, the biggest game of the day is between IU and UI (not even the Iowa version). You can say that Indiana is coasting on the fumes of last season's campaign in which they beat nobody of note and got blown out by both ranked teams they played, but the Hoosiers have been taking care of business against this year's awful teams after a slow start against Old Dominion. Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher thanks to little more than random guessing and hype from the college football media machine, but the Illini have looked the part as well outside of a shaky first half against Duke (who, again, might just be really bad). I'm not ready to call either of these teams a real contender for the Big Ten title (much like the teams immediately above) but the winner may be able to clog up the Big Ten rankings in the way that Indiana and Penn State did last year. As for the pieces on the field, Illinois will be missing a key defender as all-B1G DB Xavier Scott is out with an injury, which is bad news when you're facing Indiana's latest volcanic repeater transfer QB, the erstwhile Cal Bear Fernando Mendoza. I'll cut Indiana a break for losing to the two top ranked teams last season; I don't think their ceiling is losing to every ranked team they play. Curt Cignetti keeps it interesting for a couple more weeks before a rude awakening in Autzen. Ill: 24--Ind: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana thinks they have the formula. Play a bunch of no name cupcakes in the non-conference and sneak into the playoffs. Smart, until they run into elite teams. Yes, the Hoosiers beat up on Indiana State. They should have. But going from that game to a ranked game isn't a step up, it's a flight to the moon. This feels like an Illini win to me. Ill: 28--IU: 24
Seeberg: Gosh this is a brutal pick…and incredibly an important one in the CFP landscape. Winner has a good track to be 2024 Indiana and snag that 4th B1G spot. Both have looked steady, but Bloomington isn’t exactly a brutal road environment. Bert has his team playing clean, and as good as I think Mendoza is, he may feel the need to press when he’s not playing Larry Bird’s FCS alma mater. One mistake too many gives the Illini a late W. Ill: 27—Ind: 23

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Miami (gross on all fronts)

Hoying: Georgia State over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Purdue over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Maryland over Wisconsin

Week 3: Bulls, Dawgs, Bobcats, and Irishmen

Standings:

1.) Draper 5-1 (1-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 4-2 (1-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 4-2 (0-2 upset)
4.) Hoying 3-3 (1-1 upset)

After a couple weeks of one or two monster games flanked by legions of lesser matchups, week 3 brings some meat onto the table all Saturday long, including the young season's first premier matchup in conference play, and the potential for a preseason Playoff favorite to face elimination from contention in just their second game.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers
Draper: Clear game of the week in Knoxville.  Is Bobby Hill able to recreate the magic of Rocky Top in year two? So far, the loss of Nico has appeared to be a blessing in disguise as they've destroyed the competition thus far.  The Dawgs have been less than inspiring thus far, but they've taken care of business. Neyland (Horseshoe South?) will certainly be insane which has led to a few famous upsets of the Tide, but the Bulldogs are still looking to prove they're in the small group of consistent contenders.  Stockton isn't super flashy, but I think he'll do enough to get a big road win to send give the Vols a dose of reality.  UGA: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: Sometimes a football is a literal football, and sometimes it's the metaphorical football held by Lucy while good old Charlie Brown runs up to try to kick it again. Tennessee hasn't beaten Georgia since Jauan Jennings caught a Hail Mary pass in the end zone wayyyy back in 2016. And the Georgia D seems to have learned its lesson since that last second failure, as the Vols have cracked 20 against the Bulldogs just once since then (UGA put up 44 in that game to make sure it was never in doubt). And this year, once again, the D in Dawg stands for defense, as a dominating performance against Austin Peay last weekend made up for a puzzlingly sputtering day on the other side of the ball. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been scoring in bunches (even without Squirrel White catching passes for them anymore) but has been a bit more porous on the other side of the ball. They say defense travels, particularly in the still-early stages of a season seeing both of these teams break in new QBs after their respective predecessors both (!) transferred out. Never mess with a streak until it's over. UGA: 24--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Georgia feels like a sneaky good team. There hasn't been too much said to this point (then again, I haven't been able to watch much ball this year) about them. They are a good team. Just keep them off the roads. I'm not sure the Vols can hang here. UGA: 35--UT: 17
Seeberg: So the analytics, from what I’ve seen, have Tennessee favored in this one? I…feel hoodwinked. The Vols are certainly much improved under Heupel, but they haven’t yet stacked talent year over year like the Bulldogs. Neyland (south) may help to equalize things but until they prove they can win against a big boy other than that absurd shootout with Bama a few years back, I’m rolling with UGA- as long as the players aren’t driving the buses. UGA: 31—UT: 20

South Florida Bulls @ Miami Hurricanes
Draper: USF is the flavor of the month with 2 great wins to start the season, but there are still questions.  Boise may not be any good, and Napier is another level of stupid.  However, getting a win in the Swamp is no small task. Miami is living large after a nice win over the Irish in week one, but can they have consistent success? I'm not sold on the Carson Beck experiment, but, while USF is a fun story, I don't see it continuing.  Just look to the wise guys and the lack of respect given to the Bulls.  I tend to agree.  The convicts continue their top 10 pace...for now.  USF: 16--UM: 30
Hoying: Preseason polls are stupid, and early season polls are equally stupid. All week we've had to hear about how South Florida is the "most accomplished" team so far, based on beating two fringe top-25 teams that may not even be sniffing the rankings by season's end. Do we really think the Bulls have what it takes to hang with the mighty Miami Hurricanes after barely hanging on to an upset win over an overrated Florida team last week? No. They don't. Late game meltdowns against Notre Dame (who ended up ranked #2 last year, mind you) aside, the Hurricanes are still in early season maybe-this-is-their-year-for-real-this-time form. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the U to faceplant at some point this season (maybe once they finally have to leave the state of Florida in November), but the Bulls don't have the horses to get it done this week. USF: 17--UM: 34
Schweinfurth: USF has been a great story to this point. I mean, who saw them beating two top 25 teams to start the year? I'm not sold on Boise and Florida may be really bad. Miami looks mostly competent again. At "home" with a veteran QB? Should be good for the Canes. USF: 21--UM: 38
Seeberg: Props to USF for cashing my upset pick last week, but now they’re ranked they get picked with the big games! The Gators were fraudulent (gotta be a “days til Napier gets canned” countdown clock somewhere in Gainesville), but the Hurricanes already have a top 10 win under their belt. I’m not convinced the Canes are title contenders; they’re good-to-very-good at just about everything but not quite elite anywhere. Still, that should be enough to end the Bulls’ remarkable start to the season. Beck and Co. pull away late. USF: 17—UM: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Is this a big game? I guess there's some name branded-ness here, but I don't really feel great about either team.  The Aggies are so very consistent and 8-4 is calling.  The Irish saw some flashes with Carr on the road in a near comeback in front of the 'raucous' South Florida crowd.  A home game is just what the youngster needs to right the ship.  Honestly, neither of these teams strike me as top contenders (except the Irish schedule is T-to the-RASH).  I wouldn't be shocked if an Irish win is the first in a string of 11 straight....until the playoffs.  Could A&M win? Absolutely.  Could they faceplant?  Of course.  Ride the roller coaster and see what happens.  I see a ground and pound game with Love followed by some key QB scrambles to elevate the Irish to victory.  TAMU: 20--ND: 27
Hoying: So about that late game meltdown...for the second game in a row, the Irish showed tremendous resolve in rallying late against an opponent that had been fully pummeling them to that point, but unlike in last year's CFP final, ND almost pulled off the comeback this time. The loss to Miami was forgivable, if disheartening, but now desperation mode should be setting in for the Irish. Unless USC continues their early season surge, Texas A&M might be the last ranked team on Notre Dame's schedule, which means that even if the Irish run off 10 straight wins following this week, a 10-2 record would likely leave them outside the CFP looking in. Do the Aggies have what it takes to deliver a good old fashioned September playoff knockout blow? Hard to say. Expectations were certainly higher for the Irish this year than for A&M, and the Aggies haven't looked dominant in early games against UTSA and Utah State. At least the run D tightened up a little against the Beehive State Aggies, because if Notre Dame ever remembers to just give the ball to Jeremiyah Love, TAMU could be in trouble. With their backs up against the wall, I expect Coach Freeman to put the Irish in position to make a statement and keep another season's championship hopes alive. TAMU: 20--ND: 23
Schweinfurth: These are two teams I have no feel for. The Irish are breaking in a new QB this year and the Aggies are an okay team? I'll take the home team on this, but close. TAMU: 17--ND: 20
Seeberg: Potential fraud alert for whoever loses this one! Last year the Irish won this one on the road, promptly lost to Northern Illinois, then went on a tear until they hit the Buckeye Buzzsaw in the title game. This season they already have a loss, however, and a second one could keep them out of the playoffs with a weak remaining schedule. Still…I mean does anyone think TAMU is legit or are they just masquerading as one of the perennially, unnecessarily ranked SEC teams? My bet is the latter. Golden Domers stay relevant this season at home. TAMU: 13—ND: 24

Ohio Bobcats @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Welcome to that other team from the great state of Ohio.  They're riding high after beating the Eers (in Athens?!?) but Rich Rod doesn't inspire fear anymore.  The Bobcats are a step up from Grambling but a distant call from the Longhorns.  The biggest danger is complacency for the Scarlet and Gray, but I don't think this coaching staff will let that happen.  Sayin will have a nice game with 3 TDs through the air, but at least 1 pick.  The Bucks will try hard to get the run game going, but while we'll see some flashes, it still won't inspire.  I'd like to see a little more of Bo Jackson just to see what we have in the youngster.  JJ and Tate shine again and the Bullets continue their impressive start to the repeat campaign--hopefully dialing up some more pressure from the front seven.  Wash. Rinse. Repeat. OU: 10--OSU: 47
Hoying: Hey, everybody, the Ohio Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers last week! That puts them in a very special club called...everyone! Seriously, good for the Bobcats to bounce back after losing a heartbreaker in the opener to Rutgers. Senior QB Peter Navarro willed OU to a victory behind his three INTs. OK, he also put up 87 yards on the ground, so the Silver Bullets are going to have to be on their toes for this one. The good news is that if Jim Knowles was the mad scientist for the Buckeye defense, Matt Patricia has been a veritable Ms. Frizzle out of the gates with the exotic looks he's deployed to flummox Texas and Grambling alike. That being said, the one unit that hasn't seen a lot of production over the first two weeks has been the defensive ends. Rock and Roll McDonald has been doing more than his share in the middle of the line but the losses of Buckeye fixtures Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have been keenly felt over the past couple of weeks. Of course, with Julian Sayin being capable of hitting every throw on the field, and his O-line giving him all day to throw (even against Texas) the Bucks can afford to give up a few points, maybe even their first red zone score of the year. But I wouldn't worry about this one being close. The only thing the Buckeyes have to fear is a college dropout infiltrating the ranks of the mascots to sucker punch our beloved nut. Watch your back, Brutus. OU: 10--OSU: 45
Schweinfurth: At least this game is a step up. Why did we even schedule Grambling State? Oh well, it gave the Bucks some much needed live fire. Peter Navarro is a good college QB. Don't get me wrong, he is good. This game will be won in the trenches. The Buckeyes are just more talented on the lines. It would be nice to get Peoples going in this one. And oh yea, throw Da Bomb to 4. This shouldn't be a rehash of 2010, but it may be close after the first quarter. The Bucks should win relatively easy and on to the Bye week. OU: 9--OSU: 49
Seeberg: Well crap, someone who posted before me took my score prediction! Oh well, such is life. To their credit, the Bobcats started their season with 3 straight power 4 opponents, nearly beating Rutgers before downing West Virginia (I assume Rich Rod’s time at UM made him unable to tell the difference between Ohio and Ohio State). The Buckeyes are definitely a few levels up from what they’ve seen so far. Keeping Navarro caged in will be key. I’d like to see a scheme similar to when Cody Simon spied Gabriel in the Rose Bowl and closed him out all game to the tune of 2 sacks and defensive MVP. On offense, Sayin showed his insane accuracy, and though receivers may not be quite so open as last week, he should have plenty of chances. Would like to see the run game take a step forward as well. Let’s hammer it down their throats, keep Sayin (and Brutus as mentioned above!) clean, and enjoy the bye week at 3-0 and prepping for a fun road game at Washington. OU: 6—OSU: 42

Upset Special

Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss

Hoying: Florida over LSU

Schweinfurth: Wisconsin over Bama

Seeberg: Texas State over Arizona State 

Week 2: The Lesser Rivals Showcase

Standings:

1.) Draper 2-1 (1-0 upset)
2.) Hoying 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Seeberg 1-2 (0-1 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 1-2 (0-1 upset)

After the eyes of Texas (and everyone else) were on Columbus last weekend, the bitter rivals of those competitors are meeting up for a semi-phenomenal, nearly cosmic battle of their own in Big 12 SEC country. Still, it's easily the best matchup of the day, unless you want to see a dead body in the Shoe (and who doesn't?) or you have the true heart of a Sicko to cast your eyes upon an annual rivalry of futility and mediocrity renewed once again.

Michigan Wolverines @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: What to do? TTUN was a QB away from being decent last year, but we still don't know if they have one.  He looked decent in week one, but the peripheral pieces have dropped off a bit.  OU was supremely mediocre last year but there are some rumblings that they may have found the next QB in John Mateer.  It's really hard to pull any information from these week 1 games, but Underwood flashed at times (and wasn't awful) while Mateer looked phenomenal (against a paper bag).  I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I tend to avoid picking freshman led teams in their first road start.  Norman is a tall order for the youngling and also.....screw them.  BOOMER!! UM: 17--OU: 24
Hoying: Time to find out just how good a coach Sherrone Moore is. Yes, he stood toe to toe with Ohio State and Alabama last year and refused to flinch, but the Wolverines were playing with house money by that point. Now, after enduring Jack Tuttle, Alex Orji, and Davis Warren during last year's torturous campaign, Moore finally has his QB of the future. And as last season marched onward, it seemed that a decent QB may have been the only piece stopping the maize and blue from running it back for a for real no asterisk run at the title. Of course, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham have moved on, but it's not like UM has been hurting for elite level D-line play in the post-COVID era. OU had their own problems at quarterbacks last season but seemed to have a few more problems in lopsided losses to South Carolina, Texas, and LSU (and a bowl loss to Navy). The Cheat Weasels didn't inspire a lot of confidence with last week's kind-of-close win over New Mexico, but I'm betting they were saving their best for this week. UM: 24--OU: 21
Schweinfurth: UM: 17--OU: 20
Seeberg: Well the season has begun, we have an actual data point for teams now!  Still not much on which to base conclusions, however.  I think it’s relatively safe to say that UM’s offense looked a notch better than anticipated, while the defense maybe looked a half-step worse.  The Sooners, meanwhile, may actually have the better quarterback in the Red River Rivalry this season, which would have sounded blasphemous just seven short days ago.  Venables seems to have the defense shaped up as well.  And, let’s be real, nobody reading this wants to see the maize and blue win…ever.  Boomer Sooner.  UM: 17—OU: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Iowa State Cyclones

Draper: Everyone's favorite rivalry that no one particularly cares about.  Are the Clones ready to stake a claim as contenders? I'm not so sure that a win cements their status as ready to compete, but a loss would be a major blow.  Rocco Becht and Co. look like the frontrunners of the Big 12 (along with Utah) but can Ferentz work his voodoo in El clAssico  once more? I'm not sold on Iowa, but stranger things have happened.  On second thought, looking at the fire performance from the Hawkeyes on offense last week, maybe it's just business as usual.  Iowa: 16--ISU: 27
Hoying: This always seems to be a game that gives the Hawkeyes fits even when Iowa State is wallowing in the Big 12 mud. But this year, the Clones are already 2-0 with a ranked win (though a highly suspect looking one in hindsight) across two continents. And Iowa just finished up a dreadful performance by their new transfer QB Mark Gronowski, who put up 44 total passing yards on just 2.9 yards per attempt. And that was against Albany. I'm not sure why any offensive player would ever transfer to Iowa (unless, like Cade McNamara, you've been booted out of your job at your old school) but settle in, Mark. It's going to be a looong season with Penn State, Oregon, and yes, even Indiana and Michigan State coming to town. The eternally glacial flame under Kirk Ferentz's seat might actually pick up a few degrees this year as the Hawkeye faithful begin to wonder if an actual working offense might not suit them better. No more free passes to the Big Ten Championship out of the feckless west, Kirk. Iowa: 10--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: Iowa: 9--ISU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic in-state battle for a pretty cool trophy and…typically that’s about it.  Still uncertain if either of these teams is good, but I am certain that the Hawkeyes’ offense is bad.  Less than 50 yards passing against an FCS opponent is both REALLY sad and REALLY predictable.  Iowa State, meanwhile, beat Will Howard’s former squad that apparently is poor at talent recognition since they ran him out of town for whatever Avery Johnson claims to be.  This is probably a “first to 20” wins game…and 20 is rarified air for the black and gold.  Cyclones take the Cyhawk.  ISU: 20—Iowa: 13

Grambling State Tigers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Not a lot to say.... even the Grambling coach knowns what's happening.  Honestly, this is a moment to work out the kinks we saw last week on offense.  Sayin should open up a little more with little fear of 'making the big mistake'.  Don't expect too many starters in the 2nd half. Jeremiah is a lock for at least 1 TD to fix those dropsies while the game plan should be getting live game reps and trying out new things.  Defensively, there's not much room to grow, but I predict Grambling will get in the end zone much to Buckeye Nation's chagrin (against the scrubs).  Honestly, this is a game in which we hope no one gets hurt and we try some fun things out.  Grambling's coach mentioned they'll compete...as a band....but we all know what's going to happen.  GSU: 7--OSU: 59

Hoying: 1-0 is 1-0, especially against the #1 team in the country. But let's not pretend that last week's performance was flawless. The two most heavily touted pass catchers on the team had the old Crisco gloves on during the first quarter, and the run game wasn't able to generate much push once Texas figured out that the Buckeyes were trying to run clock Lt. Governor style for the entire second half. Grambling should provide a good opportunity to work on their timing and execution against some nominally live reps. The defense, however, was unimpeachable last week. My categorical error in predicting last week's outcome was thinking that the defense had to be rebuilt, instead of just not breaking it, especially with Caleb Downs practically being a mini-coach out there on the field himself. So the Silver Bullets should be able to name their score this weekend (hopefully zero) so long as they can stay focused. Another cupcake next week, a bye, and then the season really gets interesting as Big Ten play starts off with a bang in Seattle. For now, just stamp the ticket and move on to week 3. GSU: 3--OSU: 63

Schweinfurth: GSU: 0--OSU: 63

Seeberg: Well, nice to have that big win out of the way isn’t it?  The fact that 14 points and barely over 200 yards of offense was enough speaks volumes about how good Matt Patricia and that defense are already - and how great they can become.  As long as that D-line gets just enough pressure, it looks as though the back 7 will hold up well.  Downs actually wasn’t in on a ton of plays, but he was reading things and taking away reads all over the field while Reese and McClain tackled everything carrying the football.  On the offensive side of the ball, Sayin actually graded out a champion, and his stats would look markedly different without the 4(!) drops from a usually sure-handed WR/TE corps.  Hopefully, Day and Hartline use this week’s outmatched opponents to work the run game and open up the offense for Sayin to command more of it.  Pass protection looked very solid which was a plus.  I don’t know if Day will shorten games as much this season as he did last year, since this squad is young and needs more reps.  Either way, it should be a relaxing 3:30 watch, with astonishingly non-homer Jake Butt on the call.  Enjoy, Buckeye Nation.  GSU: 10—OSU: 45

Upset Special

Draper: ULM over Bama

Hoying: Mississippi State over Arizona State

Schweinfurth: East Texas A&M over Florida State

Seeberg:  South Florida over Florida