Week 10: Don't! Get! Eliminated!

Standings:

1.) Hoying 25-12 (2-7 upset)
2.) Seeberg 24-13 (2-7 upset)
2.) Draper 24-13 (1-8 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 24-13 (1-8 upset)

After a sleepy first half of the season, the hits keep coming for the Buckeyes, as they'll (hopefully) never go three weeks without facing a top championship contender for the rest of the season. Phase two of the gauntlet is good old not-our-rivals in one of the most intimidating home environments in college football. Let's go.

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Southern Methodist Mustangs

Draper: While neither of these teams is particularly exciting on the national stage, they're both undefeated and have real tracks to a CFP berth in the highly suspect ACC.  Their schedules have been and will remain mostly garbage (outside of BYU for SMU and Clemson for Pitt).  No one really gives credence to these resumes, but the records are quite good.  Pitt has mostly limped to the undefeated record (outside of blowing out Syracuse on the back of 3 Kyle McCord TDs (to the wrong team) while the Mustangs have dominated outside of a close loss to BYU and an inexplicable squeaker at Duke (losing the turnover battle 5-0 is never great).  I don't REALLY care about either of these teams, but someone's gotta take an inside track in the ACC.  I'm going with SMU to keep it rolling and potentially lead to a wild ACC tiebreaker at season's end.  I just don't see Pitt remaining undefeated. Pitt: 20--SMU:27

Hoying: Ah yes, that ACC rivalry renewed: Pitt vs. SMU! Both of these teams have had similar season trajectories, winning by an average score of about 40-20 and remaining unbeaten in conference play so far. The only difference is that Pitt got to play West Virginia as their Big XII nonconference opponent and SMU got tripped up by BYU. Both have relatively balanced offenses, including mobile quarterbacks. You could even say that both teams were fortunate in their last outings, with Pitt being gifted with 3 pick-sixes (picks-six?) against Syracuse and SMU blocking a field goal and stopping an overtime 2-point conversion after throwing three picks of their own against Duke. Anyway, you'll need some good luck of your own finding an edge for either team in this one. You could potentially be troubled by SMU's 19 fumbles on the season, but they've forced 14 in return to balance things out. I'll go with the more battle tested Mustangs, who have a road win at ranked Louisville to counter their loss to the current Big XII leader. Pitt: 27--SMU: 30 
Schweinfurth: When is the last time these two were relevant? Pre death sentence SMU and maybe 95 Pitt? Either way, these two are both in the mix in the ACC. Both teams can put up some points too. Granted Pitt ran away from the 'Cuse as Kyle McCord just threw another pick. Both team seem to be rolling into this game as well. I'll say this one is a shoot out. Pitt's not playing McCord this week so SMU wins. Pitt: 35--SMU:38
Seeberg:  After a season of great games, a lot of the top 25 is off this week, leaving us with the OSU PSU banger and...this one?  Remarkably, just one loss between these two.  Pitt has the lowest ranking for an undefeated power however-many team at this stage in the season since the inception of the AP poll in 1936.  Both squads are playing like it's the 80s, when Pitt had Dan Marino and SMU had an ancient (and illegal) forerunner of NIL.  I don't know if either of these teams is actually good, but I do know they're both good enough to beat that sham of a team in Miami if it comes to a conference title tilt (Clemson is still the favorite in my humble opinion).  Regardless, both of these teams need this one to stay on track for that possibility.  One thing I do know is that Pitt is unlikely to benefit from FIVE interceptions again this week (and three pick sixes!).  Giddy up, the Mustangs are back.  Pitt: 24--SMU: 31

The Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The game behind The Game.  Everyone keeps talking about Ryan Day's record in top matchups, but we don't talk about his dominance of everyone else...including the Nittany Lions.  While some real blemishes popped up last week, I choose to believe that was a combination of 1. bad game (can't ignore that), 2. holding something back in the scheme (worst game Chip has called), 3. simple look ahead, and 4. breaking in a new Oline.  Whether that's true or not, I'm hopeful as this team was sloppy at best last week and didn't look themselves.  Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, and TTUN have stout defensive fronts that we absolutely need to be better against (and I think we will) but the line must eliminate the stupid mistakes they showed against the Huskers.  On the other side of the ball, I'm happy with the defensive maturation last week and some more creative playcalls to get lines at the QB.  I anticipate Allar will be out, but regardless, the Buckeye defense needs to be as good or better than they were next week, while the offense needs to return to form.  The running game was pedestrian to bad last week and it won't get it done here.  I expect the playbook to completely open up in Happy Valley with QB runs, clean misdirection, and more downfield passing (with max protect).  It won't be easy, but nothing easy is worth it. This is a game for this team to look in the mirror and think about how they want to be remembered...champions or one of the biggest flops of returning talent.  This is the first game on the new path to greatness and the Bucks step up to the challenge.  Will Howard will make some crucial short yardage plays, Egbuka and Judkins will keep the chains moving while Henderson and Smith provide the fireworks, and the defense steps up BIG forcing 4+ sacks and a key turnover.  OSU: 24--PSU: 20
Hoying: I'll say it again. The ledge. Come off of it. Yes, last week wasn't the "get right" game we were hoping for after we died of dysentery on the Oregon trail. At least not on the offensive side of the ball. But the narrative coming off of the loss to the Ducks was that the Bucks needed to be more creative on defense to force more tackles for loss and turnovers. How do 13 TFLs and a game-clinching interception sound in response? Yes, the offense ran a grand total of 48 plays, in part because Nebraska was able to play keep-away somewhat on offense, but the bend-but-don't break Buckeye D was back in action, peppered with some abrupt drive killers this time. Even Will Howard gifting the Huskers a possession starting on the Buckeye 7 yard line ended with zero points for Nebraska. All this being said, it's impossible to ignore how inept the offense looked last week. Part of it was starting a new LT, which we will now do again for the second straight week. Part of it was the rest of the line looking like they just learned the signals last Friday (except you, Seth, we love you, Seth). Part of it was Howard missing some obvious reads, even though his passing game was overall very efficient and he was able to create when the line didn't hold up. And that's what gives me the most hope for this game. Look, last time these teams met it wasn't like the Buckeyes had all the room in the world to make anything happen on offense, either. The game was basically 60 minutes of both teams beating their heads against the wall until Marvelous Marv was able to spring open for a play or two. And that was with Chevy "Like a Rock" McCord standing transfixed in the pocket. Remember, the Buckeyes were a defensive hold away from a strip sack defensive TD disaster in that game. In a reminder of why everyone loved/hated his offense when he was the coach, Urban came out this week and said the Buckeyes will need to run Howard 15-20 times in this game to have the best chance at success, and I'm inclined to agree. No point in trying to keep him bubble-wrapped at this point with the entire season on the line. Last week had the feeling of trying to white knuckle out a win without putting anything on tape for the Lions for how the offense was going to operate with the line reshuffled. Obviously that goes out the window with the line reshuffled again, but I'm sure Chip has enough in his bag of tricks to get the W this week so long as the offense can execute. And it's not like Penn State is a juggernaut on offense either. Their RBs are comparable to ours, if a step behind, and I don't expect Allar to go 18-42 like he did last year, but where are the receivers? If you can't get this Buckeye defense to take a step or two off of the line of scrimmage, then I expect Penn State to have the kind of offensive success they had last year, with 6 points through the first 59 minutes. The one wild card is TE Tyler Warren, but generally it's not a great sign of a strong offense when your best receiving threat is a tight end. That's what Wisconsin offenses look like. It'll take a great game from the Buckeye safeties and linebackers to contain Warren, but Downs has been a rock all year and Simon has been trending upwards. OSU: 20--PSU: 16
Schweinfurth: I'm gonna say it. Penn State does not feel like the #3 team in the country. I feel like this is a default ranking, but I can't fault the voters. However, I would put them there too right now. Now for this game. I really hope last week was a look ahead game. If nothing else, it sure got the Buckeyes' attention. They don't need any more motivation than to hear all the locals doubting this team. I do have faith that the Buckeye offense wasn't trying to show a lot while breaking in a new LT. Guess what, we have a new LG and LT this week. Great...This is the type of game why the Bucks got Will Howard. I expect to see more QB runs. Get the ball to the best player on the field in Jeremiah Smith. On defense, I enjoyed the changes made up front with more stunts and blitzes. It's time to be selectively aggressive. Allar may or may not play but Penn State doesn't really scare me down field. The athletic LB corps will be tested and I think they will pass this test. I'm taking the Bucks here, but a loss makes this year feel like 2005 all over again. OSU: 27--PSU: 24
Seeberg:  Well folks, here we are.  Litmus test number two, where highly stoppable force (Ryan Day, 2-6 vs. top five teams) meets easily movable object (James Franklin, 1-9 vs. Ohio State, 3-17 vs. top 10 teams).  To be quite honest, Franklin's ineptitude in this game, and Penn State's unwillingness to continue playing it, makes much of the Buckeye fanbase not believe this is a big game, so Ryan Day is in a very precarious no-win scenario here.  A win?  Big deal, it's Penn State, they always choke against us.  A LOSS?  Oh dear, break out the guillotine.  Both teams come off remarkably bleh performances last week, likely due in no small part to injuries (offensive line for OSU, Drew Allar for PSU).  Allar will reportedly give it a go, but I'm sure we'll see the running QB also, a factor that has been the Silver Bullets' achilles heel in recent years (see: Dillon Gabriel TD run).  Also, if anyone watched the USC/PSU game, we need to use approximately 8 men to cover their only trustworthy weapon in the pass game...the dreaded tight end (sorry Fleming, you ain't it).  One thing I do know:  If Jeremiah Smith has 4 targets again like last week, we probably lose.  Marvin Harrison carried McCord and Co. to the win last year, and #2 and #4 need to add up to #18 this year.  Speaking of #18, Will Howard continues to largely impress minus 1-2 "what the fu__" moments per game.  Avoid those, and even with a banged up O-line, the Buckeyes likely win.  Will the Pennsylvania kid be too amped up and try to force the issue?  I don't know, but that doesn't seem to be his style thus far.  I don't expect it to be pretty, but I do expect James Franklin to clam up with that bemused, I-don't-know-what's-happening out-here-and-I-wish-I-could-do-something-about-it look on his face.  It won't be pretty, but the Bucks get it done.  OSU: 24--PSU: 19

Upset Special
Draper: Arkansas over Ole Miss
Hoying: Louisville over Clemson
Schweinfurth: MSU over Indiana
Seeberg: Duke over Miami

Week 9: A Surprise, To Be Sure, But a Welcome One

Standings:

1.) Hoying 20-11 (2-6 upset)
2.) Draper 19-12 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 18-13 (2-6 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 18-13 (1-7 upset)

Realignment continues to pay dividends as the Oops! All Bangers 2024 season rolls along with five more ranked matchups. Raise your hand if you foresaw Navy, Illinois and Vanderbilt playing in ranked games in week 9, or if the fight for sole possession of first place in the SEC did not feature Alabama, Georgia, Texas, or Tennessee.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Navy Midshipmen

Draper: Historically, this is one of (if not the) most lopsided rivalries in all of sport.  The Irish have 80 wins to Navy's 13 (3 in the last 60 years!).  However, this Midshipmen squad has a little chip on their shoulder and a 0 in the loss column.  I do know one thing: it SUCKS playing an option team.  Marcus will have his hands full preparing for this Navy attack, but the shocking feature is that Blake Horvath has also been slinging it (only 300 passing yards behind Riley Leonard).  It needs to be noted that the Navy schedule has been hot garbage while Notre Dame has faced and defeated some stout competition (and lost to NIU).  I don't think Navy can stand up for a full 4 quarter game against the athletes of the Irish.  Give me Notre Dame continuing to press for a playoff berth after pulling away in the second half.  ND: 33--Navy: 17
Hoying: Is it possible for a program like Notre Dame to be flying under the radar? Their season-opening win over TAMU has only appreciated as the season goes on, and while the Northern Illinois loss is still inexcusable, it appears to be more of a 2016-Clemson-loses-to-4-8-Syracuse blip than any true indication of ND's potential. The Irish haven't faced a lot of tests since then (Louisville is pretty OK), but it's not like this week's opponent has been facing a murderer's row in the AAAAAC either. So far out of conference, Navy has faced Bucknell (bad) and Air Force (bad but with shooty planes). And, credit where credit's due, the Midshipmen have generally looked terrific, matching their usual elite rushing offense with an effective-when-needed passing attack from Hilliard Darby's own Blake Horvath. You like red zone efficiency? The only team that does it better than the Buckeyes is Navy, although Notre Dame's no slouch with an 82% red zone TD rate either. This one comes down to who's been doing it against better competition, and although Notre Dame's weaker-than-advertised schedule still leaves a lot to be desired compared to the Floridas and Purdues of the world, it's the Irish who have proven themselves in a fight, not the military. ND: 31--Navy: 21
Schweinfurth: Navy (and Army) is undefeated 6 games into the season. It's been a long time since we could say that about the Midshipmen. I have always had a soft spot for the triple option, but this year is different. Navy can actually throw the ball! That adds another element to their offense that they just haven't had. With that said, see this coming down to a one score game. I'd love to see the military academies continue to win, but I think the Irish will just squeak by. ND: 35--Navy: 31
Seeberg:  Hearkening back to the days of yore with this (ranked!) matchup.  Navy, while significantly improved, have played a whole lotta nothing thus far this year.  I do expect this one to be competitive, as we all know the triple option is a nightmare to defend and slows the game down as well.  Over four quarters, however, ND's offense should have enough openings to have just enough breathing room that the golden domers can breathe easy in the fourth quarter.  Irish pull away late.  ND: 38--Navy: 20

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: This has all the makings of a weird Bert game.  Overlooked Illinois faces #1 team high on life just waiting to get popped....but I really don't think Illinois is that good.  They are a solid upper middle class team with a balanced attack, but the Ducks have too much explosiveness on offense and good defensive line play to allow a loss here at home.  Their trap games are in Ann Arbor (yes, really) and in Madison.  Regardless, they'll likely cruise to Indy with their softish schedule.  Ducking the Lions and the Hoosiers is a major boon.  Ill: 13--UO: 30
Hoying: I tried to tell you last week, this Illinois team is dangerous. Or maybe Michigan is just really, really bad. Probably the latter. The Illini didn't do a great job of moving the ball against the Wolverines, but as predicted, they flustered the Michigan O and capitalized on turnovers. The Illini would love to do that again this week, but as some of you may have noticed a couple of weeks ago, it's not easy to get turnovers out of this Duck offense. Illinois did have some success slowing down the Big Ten's other non-Ohio State elite team when they were a missed field goal away from a halftime lead in Happy Valley, but the counterpunches just weren't coming often enough to put Penn State seriously on edge. I don't need to tell you much about Oregon; you saw what they did to the Buckeyes and they didn't look any less sharp obliterating Purdue last week. I am concerned with how long the Ducks can handle success, but you can pencil them into Indianapolis right now, and they won't face another serious test until then (maaaybe Camp Randall in a few weeks). This may be the biggest game left that they have to get up for. Ill: 13--UO: 34
Schweinfurth: I look at this game and, while Illinois is ranked, Oregon is by far the better team here. Teams have also struggled going out west this year. I just don't see a scenario where the Illini win in Eugene. Ill: 10--UO: 35
Seeberg:  Oregon played probably an A-/B+ game at home and beat a D+ Buckeyes squad by one.  Impressive?  No.  The Ducks don't need an A game to beat Illinois, but a C game could catch them out.  Illinois doesn't run it quite as well as a typical Bert squad, but they're throwing it better to make up for it.  The Fighting Illini don't exactly strike fear historically either, so the Ducks may come out flat as they did several times early in the season.  Gabriel and Co. just have too many athletes over four quarters to let this one get away barring SERIOUS weirdness.  Quack quack.  Ill: 20--UO: 34

Missouri Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Of all the sneaky games this week, this is the easiest for me to pick (so go the other way!).  I don't think Missouri is any good this year.  They took out ranked Vandy at home in 2 OT and.....that's it.  Oh yeah, they were blasted by the only other team on their schedule 2 weeks back.  I don't think Bama is CLOSE to the Bama of old, but they have far better athletes and should coast here (if not, the temp on DeBoer is going to rise).  Milroe balls out and the Tide roll.  Mizzou: 17--Bama: 31
Hoying: Right now, the 7 teams at the top of the SEC standings list are Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas, and Vanderbilt. Obviously Missouri won't be playing themselves, but care to hazard a guess how many of the other 6 are on Missouri's schedule this season? Just two: the Aggies, who completely embarrassed the Tigers a few weeks ago, and Vanderbilt, who Missouri needed double overtime and and a missed FG to escape. The Tigers keep winning, I guess, but they're a far cry from the borderline top-10 SEC dark horse projection they drew in the offseason. The offense doesn't really work, and that's assuming that QB Brady Cook's even ready to go after traipsing around Bryant-Denny in a boot on Friday. Alabama has their own problems but I don't see any 30-point losses on their resume. It would help if Jalen Milroe didn't keep looking worse and worse and the Tide could find some semblance of a rushing attack, but they do still have the nation's best 17-year old receiver who is 17. I can't possibly pick Missouri to win this game; if Bama manages to blow this one then the wheels are really falling off in Tuscaloosa. Mizzou: 13--Bama: 24
Schweinfurth: Looking at Mizzou this year, and I wonder how they were ranked. I guess that win over a massively depleted Ohio State team did wonders for the Tigers reputation. Again, similar to the game above, Bama is the much better team. They should win this one...barring any hangover from last week. Mizzou: 10--Bama: 28
Seeberg:  Remember kids, there were signs that Vandy was much improved, and it started with a narrow OT loss to Mizzou.  Seemed a fluke then, but if those two squads met now I'd pick the Commodores.  In the Tigers come to Tuscaloosa, where dreams used to go to die.  Now it seems everyone can keep it close?  I expect the Tigers' D to do that for the majority of the game, but they're reeling on offense and just won't score enough to keep it close for four quarters.  Get your ball-watching done in the first half this week, folks, by Q4 most of these games will be over for all intents and purposes.  Mizzou: 13--Bama: 26

Texas Longhorns @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: We all circled this date in the preseason as a ranked matchup of titans.  Vanderbilt and Diego Pavia have taken over the heartbeat of the nation.  Little known fact: Vandy has the best historical record of any team to face the Longhorns (8-3 all time!).  The last game was 96 years ago, but who's counting?  Literally everyone outside of Austin will be rooting for the black and gold, but we'll soon see if UGA can beat the Horns 2 weeks in a row. While I REALLY want this to happen, I don't see it.  Even without the fans bullying the refs into changing calls, the Longhorns will get back on track. UT: 38--Vandy: 20
Hoying: OK, ha ha, it's been fun, but is this team for real? You have your non-conference Power 4 win (that has somewhat depreciated since then) but can you beat anyone with a pulse, Texas? Much like another team we know, the Longhorns looked invincible against cupcake city but were unable to deliver on the biggest stage, losing by multiple scores to Georgia at home. Suddenly the Texas O-line looks like a serious liability, and the embarrassment of riches at the QB position may be percolating into a bit of a controversy. Fortunately for the Longhorns, they don't face a stellar defense this week in Vanderbilt. Even in their crown jewel win over Alabama, the Dores gave up 35 points and struggled to stop the Tide at all after an early pick six gave Vandy a huge head start. Texas, like Missouri above, faces a pretty favorable SEC schedule this year, with the restored Lone Star Showdown against A&M as the only major test left on the schedule. But the eyes of Texas would clear up considerably if the Horns could look more like themselves against a quality team on the road. The punishing Texas defense should make that a reality. UT: 34--Vandy: 16
Schweinfurth: Yes, Vandy is ranked and a chaos team. Enter a reeling Longhorn team who have a QB controversy (but they don't?). I'm so confused. Vandy is going to give up a ton of points, so Diego Pavia is going to have to harness the chaos magic he used against the Tide here. I'm just not sure lightning can strike twice. But it would be funny. UT: 42--Vandy: 35
Seeberg:  Texas's laughable schedule (Oklahoma with a freshman QB and no wideouts doesn't count) got exposed when Georgia pretty much handled them last week.  Vandy would represent their new best win replacing...ULM.  Seriously.  Will the Nashvegas town get behind the Commodores?  Were they even aware they played football until they saw goalposts being carried from the stadium down to the river?  I'm not sure.  Either way, Texas has no excuse to take the Pavia show lightly, and they won't.  Horns back up.  UT: 31--Vandy: 16

Louisiana State Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This is a super impactful game as both of these teams control their destiny in the SEC (unlike Georgia).  Both teams have played lights out since an opening day loss to USC (ew) and ND (slightly better). Now neither team has played much of a schedule since then, but each has one decent win (LSU over Ole Miss in OT and A&M over Mizzou).  Neither team would surprise me in this game, but Garrett Nussmeier has been playing extremely well.  The home field advantage is a big swing, but the game goes to the team that makes fewer mistakes.  Both of these teams are well-known for the stupid play, so I have no idea.  Let's go with the more explosive QB.  LSU: 30--TAMU: 27
Hoying: I must be insane, because I'm honestly considering believing in a Texas A&M team after the season's midpoint. QB Connor Weigman has been no great shakes, paling especially in comparison to his gunslinging purple and gold counterpart, Garrett Nussmeier. But they don't ask him to do much; the Aggies very much more of a run-first team, with only five more passing attempts this season than That Team Up North. And it's not because they've been comfortably ahead in their games, either. Texas A&M has close wins against Bowling Green, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and, as mentioned above, a loss to Notre Dame where the Aggies couldn't get anything going. LSU's vulnerability is through the air, and that's a weakness TAMU will not be able to exploit. Time for the annual Aggie roller coaster to do its thing. LSU: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Heh, two teams I should be paying attention to, but I've ignored. I have just assumed these two were highly overrated for quite a while. Maybe I was wrong, but who knows. Let's be honest, I have no clue on this game. To me it's a coin flip. Go with the Aggies at home, I guess? LSU: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg:  First impressions can be deceiving, as it seems it may have been for these two opponents.  Both had seemingly understandable week one losses (though the USC loss looks rough now) but got right with the help of lousy schedules before beating ranked opponents last week.  Oddly similar paths, and a tight game.  Both teams also have legendary home environments, and the Aggies get that this time around.  Hoping the 12th man reclaims their title that was stolen by the Longhorns crowd last week for literally getting a (bad) call overturned.  Aggies in a fun one.  LSU: 27--TAMU: 28

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ The Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: It's time to restart the season an get back on track.  I hated having a bye week after Oregon to let the loss fester, but there was some positive talk about Day getting more involved with the defense.  Whatever this beef is between Knowles and Johnson needs to go away.  Saban mentioned the line play has been bland and uninspired...and he's right.  Too often, we've been playing the 'I'm better than you so I'll beat you by running you over'.  While our DEs are special, the scheme isn't doing them any favors.  If we used this time to scheme something on defense up front, look out Nebraska.  There is little to no worry about the offense so this week is about the defense.  I expect a complete beatdown.  While Nebraska was embarrassed by IU, they'll have something cooked up.  It's up to this staff and players to be ready and quickly "leave no doubt".  Howard continues his fantastic season with 3 more TDs but the explosive plays on the ground return.  Bucks BIG.  Neb: 13--OSU: 55
Hoying: Let's come down off the ledge. In our new era where losses are more forgivable than ever before, losing by one point to the #1 team at night on the road, where a sequence of bizarre accidents kept you from making a game-winning play, is ripe for maximum clemency. The good news is that now that all of your weaknesses (D-line pressure, deep secondary coverage, consistent push from the O-line) have been laid bare, there's no excuse for fixing them, now. Penn State in Happy Valley isn't going to be any easier of a test, and another loss would complete the journey from Playoff favorite to the Bucks' perennial stomping ground of Playoff bubble. And while it would be nice to see some signs of improvement this week, there's no need to open the bag of tricks just yet. The Hoosiers have done us the courtesy of exposing Nebraska as one of this year's "fake good" teams, with an offense that has only cracked 30 against UTEP and Northern Iowa this year. The defense is there, yes, but part of that is function of playing teams like Purdue and Rutgers; the defense didn't do much to stop Illinois or Indiana in the Huskers' two losses. Dylan Raiola's decommitment may have thrown a temporary wrench into Ohio State's long-term QB succession plans, but the future sure isn't now for Nebraska the way it is for the Buckeyes. Will Howard is handily outplaying him this season, and I really don't think the Buckeyes are going to be disappointed settling for Julian Sayin or Air Noland going forward. I like to look for mismatches in the games where the Buckeyes' opponent is thoroughly outclassed, and I just don't see any pressure points for Nebraska to exploit. Time for another ho-hum taking care of business blowout for Ryan Day, and then on to another opportunity to flip the narrative. Neb: 10--OSU: 35
Schweinfurth: Nebraska is not as bad as they played last week at Indiana. They just ran into a buzz saw and then chased the game. They are also highly outgunned in this game. The Oregon game should have left an empty and sick feeling in the Bucks stomach, but they still have everything to play for. Let's see if there are any defensive changes made moving forward. Denzel Burke needs help. The defensive line needs an updated pass rush. These things are fixable. Day and company have had two weeks to make changes. Now it's time to see if they actually did anything to get better over the bye week. As for this game, the Bucks should win big after a slightly clunky start. Neb: 10--OSU: 45
Seeberg:  Losing happens.  It’s, ironically, more frustrating (despite being more understandable) when you play nowhere near your full capability.  Such was the story in Eugene two weeks ago.  In hindsight, playing a lousy game and barely losing to a consensus top 5 opponent on the road isn’t all that bad.  Two weeks to let it simmer can be a double-edged sword:  Wanting to get that bad taste out of your mouth but losing the rhythm of playing each week.  The Bucks have started slowly frequently this year, and I fear the game against the Huskers will produce more of the same, particularly on defense.  Knowles HAS to try some more/different pressures and looks.  Rushing only four AND leaving corners on islands in patently insane.  Indiana absolutely destroyed the Huskers, but that felt like an aberration.  Remember, Nebraska choked out Colorado, 28-0 in the fourth quarter before giving the backups some run.  The good news, Buckeye Nation, is that Will Howard played very well at Oregon, and Nebraska’s defense isn’t nearly as good.  Balanced offensive attack, more pressure (fingers crossed) on D, and get ready for the other hardest road game of the year in the Big (thanks, schedule makers) at PSU next week.  Neb: 13—OSU: 38

Upset Special
Draper: FSU over Miami (because F Miami)
Hoying: Wisconsin over Penn State
Schweinfurth: Kansas over K-State
Seeberg: Duke over SMU

Week 8: Se(c)paration Saturday

Standings:

1.) Hoying 18-9 (2-5 upset)
1.) Draper 18-9 (1-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 17-10 (2-5 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 16-11 (1-6 upset)

Buckeye Nation will need to wait another week for some corn husks to wash the taste of defeat out of their mouths. But while the nation's erstwhile national championship favorite licks its wounds, multiple other Playoff hopeful monsters find themselves in talent-equated matchups of their own.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: A sneaky good game to kick off the week.  I went through the schedules and found that the Hoosier schedule this season is OSU and garbage.  All credit to Cignetti for bringing IU to the relevant world of college football in half a season, but can this explosive offense and surprisingly stingy defense keep it up for the long haul?  Enter Nebraska and Baby Mahomes.  Nebraska has also played a lot of hot garbage thus far, but the win over Colorado was nice.  I don't know what Matt Rhule is going to end up doing at Nebraska (don't expect much), but this would be a nice win that no one will care about.  I was going to make this my upset special, but as it is, I need to stick to my guns.  Indiana falls from the unbeaten ranks. Neb: 30--IU: 28
Hoying: Fun fact: other than the Magnificent Seven that have joined over the last decade or so, Indiana has the fewest Big Ten Championships of any B1G team, with two. And in both 1945 and 1967, the Hoosiers were fortunate that their schedule was missing the Big Ten's premier program, Ohio State (though they did beat Michigan both years, go Hoosiers). So even though IU currently sits atop the Big Ten standings (as we all predicted preseason), don't pencil them in to any championship slots just yet. On the other hand, Nebraska, I'm told, has been some kind of all-time powerhouse in multiple decades past, but the Huskers haven't been able to overcome the Curse of Pelini, with winning seasons eluding them since 2016. Remember 2016? When Nebraska was in the top ten and Ohio State embarrassed them 62-3? And Joe Burrow came in and went 6-6 in extended garbage time and we thought "Man, the future sure is bright here in Columbus." What was I talking about? Oh yes, resurgent red teams in the Big Ten. Indiana has played garbage upon garbage over the first half of the season, but they've been taking care of business, winning by an average of 34 points and never trailing in a single game. I've never seen Indiana look this competent, not even back in 2020 when future Heisman and natty runner-up Michael Penix was slinging it within one score of knocking off the #2 Buckeyes in Columbus. And that might be a problem for Buckeye Nation in a month or so, but it's definitely a problem for the Huskers right now. Nebraska has looked the part themselves for the first time in forever, slipping only against the Big Ten's third surprise team of the year, Illinois, but they aren't doing what the Hoosiers are doing on offense. Once-Ohio State QB commit Dylan Raiola has been...fine...for the Huskers, but former Ohio U QB Kurtis Rourke has come out of nowhere to light the world on fire for Indiana. As we saw last week, grinding the Little Sisters of the Poor into dust doesn't necessarily translate to being able to perform at the highest level on the biggest stage, but I don't think playing Nebraska, even an improved Nebraska, reaches that threshold. Neb: 21--IU: 35
Schweinfurth:  Not sure if Indiana is for real, but they sure have been fun to watch. The offense is carrying this team, but Nebraska can put up some points as well. I see this as a one score game, so you know what that means...Neb: 28--IU: 31
Seeberg: We all had this one as a key conference matchup back in August, right?  NOPE.  Regardless, Coach Cig "Smoke 'em if you got 'em" Netti has the Hoosiers on a roll they haven't seen since 1967.  Playing the dregs of the conference has obviously aided the Hoosiers, as we knew NW would be lousy, and MD and UCLA have been equally bleh thus far.  Still, with no Oregon, Penn State or USC on the schedule- and UM at home where things have often been tricky for the maize and blue- the Hoosiers might be on pace for DOUBLE DIGIT WINS.  Nebraska, however, poses their stiffest test to date.  An above average team on both sides of the ball, let's not forget the Huskers absolutely stifled Colorado to the tune of 28-0 through 3 quarters before calling off the dogs.  That game, however, was in Lincoln, and IU often plays well at home despite a typically lackluster crowd.  This may be more of a heart than head pick because I do believe the Huskers have the better roster, but it's fun watching the Hoosiers be good and I want it to keep going.  Hoosiers squeak one out at home.  Neb: 17--IU: 20

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: What to do here? Both teams limp into this game after lackluster wins last Saturday.  Bama clearly has the talent edge, but the Vols are at home.  I feel like I have more faith in the Bama raw talent winning out.  This isn't huge props to the greatness of this Tide team, but they are the better than the orange on the other side.  When both teams look overrated (they probably are), default to better athletes.  Roll Tide.  Bama: 24--UT: 20
Hoying: Last year was a bit of a down year for the SEC. As of just three weeks ago, it looked like the league was back in form with five teams legitimately vying for the #1 spot. The only one of those five that hasn't beclowned themselves since has been Texas, as neither of the teams at hand has put together a solid four quarters over the last three weeks. I still think the Tide have a much higher floor (and ceiling) than the upstart Vols, and home field advantage isn't going to be enough to get the job done. UT had everything going their way 2 years ago (including but not limited to their fraud 2022 Biletnikoff winner Jalin Hyatt), and that was still barely enough to beat a down year Bama on a last second field goal. Lightning isn't striking twice, unless we're talking about Jalen Milroe adding some razzle dazzle to the all-or-nothing Tide offense. Bama: 24--UT: 21

Schweinfurth: This is a massive elimination game for Tennessee. Bama could, and probably will still get in the playoff with two losses, but not the Vols. I learned my lesson a few weeks ago and I'm not picking against Bama again. Bama: 35--UT: 28
Seeberg: I...have no idea what to make of this game any more.  Bama shocks the world by beating UGA, then lays two massive eggs in a row.  UT looked like world beaters the first month of the season, then the schedule caught up to them and they literally look like they've forgotten how to play offense (7 of their last 10 quarters?  Scoreless).  I realize Florida is a rivalry game but the Vols looked even a half step lousier than Bama has looked post-Georgia.  Multiple scoreless quarters against Bama isn't exactly a recipe for success, even with Rocky Top blaring every 9 seconds (hi Stewie!).  Bama survives again.  Bama: 24--UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: A team that can only run vs. a coach that....can't run? There is no faith that the Wolverines have anything resembling an offense, but Illinois has shown little to believe in either.  While the Illini seemed to be the potential B1G spoiler, life comes at you fast.  The win over Nebraska was a nice one, but they did all they could to blow a game vs. hapless Purdue (lucking out on a 2 point attempt).  That will stay with you.  We saw last week that the swan song of TTUN is over.  Playing against a team with a pulse that can slow the run will be the end...but I don't really trust the Illini to show out in this game.  Again, the better athletes in this game (on the defensive side at least) wear maize and blue.  UM squeaks out an Iowa-esque 'ranked win' on the road.  UM: 13--Ill:10
Hoying: As much as I hated Michigan's success (and everything else about them) last season, it sure made for easy writeups (spoiler alert: pick the blue team). This year I can't make heads or tails of the Wolverines. They haven't really looked good in any of their games this season, but sometimes they succeed in making their opponents look worse. The passing game still isn't functional in any sense, so this one will come down to whether the UM run game can find any room to work against Illinois. The Illini gave up 239 yards on the ground to...Purdue...last week, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. But this isn't the 2023 (or 2022 or 2021) Wolverine rushing attack. At some point, they're going to hit a wall and have to test the Illini through the air. And Illinois excels in the turnover margin, +4 overall and +7 in interceptions. Look for the Wolverines to melt down for the second straight time in their second straight road game, establishing a pattern of behavior that will ultimately lead to its logical conclusion. UM: 13--ILL: 16
Schweinfurth: This game is an absolute rock fight. It's also probably worth few laughs. TUN wins because they have the better defense. UM: 9--Ill: 7
Seeberg: And now the battle of "who gets to stay ranked?" in the Big Ten.  Why UM is ranked at all is a mystery.  Same can be said for Illinois whose ranking comes primarily off their big nonconference win against *checks notes*  Kansas?  Yikes.  I'm still highly uncertain how the Illini gave up nearly half a hundred to lowly Purdue.  It's like the Purdue upset special team rolled out there a week too early.  If we know anything, this game will be ugly to watch but exciting because it'll be close given that UM can stop you but just flat out can't score it.  Purdue threw for nearly 300 and ran for over 200 against Illinois, and it's that second number that scares me.  UM can't throw for 300 against air, but if you let them run it, they will gladly do so.  UM (GAH) stays ranked.  UM: 27--Ill: 17

Georgia Bulldogs @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: The game of the year...of the week enters Austin for a massive SEC showdown.  Texas has been the darling of the college football world (outside of stupid Oregon), but let's take a look at the resume.  Wins over CSU, UTSA, ULM, and Mississippi State are expected; Winning the Red River Shootout--> OU kinda sucks; and the signature win is....over TTUN without advance knowledge of the plays or the fact that the forward pass was legalized.  There is a chance that their best win is over ULM (probably not, but....).  UGA on the other hand beat beat down Clemson, went toe to toe with Bama in Tuscaloosa, and won an ugly road game in Lexington.  Is UGA the juggernaut from the past few years? No.  Is Texas unbeatable? Also no.  It's going to be a fun game, but I actually think Kirby is going to out-scheme Sark and work on 'reclaiming the crown'.  UGA: 27--UT: 24  
Hoying: Everyone's spent the last week sh***ing on Ryan Day for being the coach who never wins the big one, but, once again, let's turn our eyes to the seeming gold standard of active coaches, Kirby Smart. In addition to his  continuing struggles against Alabama (already noted for predictive value), when was the last time Kirby beat a top 10 team on the road? The Kirbster is 2-3 in these games, with their only such wins being over Notre Dame in 2017 and Kentucky in 2018. (Ryan Day has 1 in each of his last two seasons, but I digress.) Since losing to Bama (again), the Dawgs were never really in danger last week against Mississippi State, but Texas has been the absolute buzzsaw that everyone thought Ohio State was prior to last week's unfortunate events. This matchup reminds me quite a bit of Ohio State's visit to Eugene last week. Like last week's Buckeyes, the Horns haven't really faced a functional offense yet, so this is a good chance to see if the now-#1 defense in the country is as good as advertised. I don't think this game is quite as tough a challenge for the Horns as the Ducks were for the Bucks last week, as a few of Georgia's warts have already been laid bare, particularly on defense. I'm confident that the Horns take care of business at home, kicking off a month-long denouement leading into the season-concluding restoration of the Lone Star Showdown. Who would have thought that both of the nation's premier conferences would have fresh faces firmly in control down the stretch? UGA: 20--UT: 28
Schweinfurth: I'm not really sure how good Texas is, or even if they are truly "back." They beat a bad TUN and their next biggest win is??? UGA at least showed heart and competence coming back on Bama. Again, not fully sold on Bevo yet and there are really fast cars down the road this weekend. UGA races out of Austin with a win. UGA: 35--UT: 31
Seeberg:  Maybe the only constant/consistent team in the SEC this year is Texas (man that's still bizarre to type).  The rest of the conference has gone berserk while the Longhorns just cruise along, even without Buckeye legend Quinn Ewers for a couple weeks.  This one was supposed to be the ultimate mid-season clash until Georgia nearly lost to Kentucky, crapped the bed against Bama, and followed that up by struggling to put away Mississippi State- a team that paid Toledo over $1 million to come destroy them by 24 on their home field.  Again, home field makes a big difference here.  You have to assume the Bulldogs will be up for this one, but it's not between the hedges in Athens.  Until they give me reason to believe otherwise, after Saturday night, Texas may finally, possibly, potentially be...back.  UGA: 20--UT: 31

Upset Special
Draper: Mississippi State over A&M
Hoying: Purdue over Ore...lol, no, Georgia Tech over Notre Dame
Schweinfurth: Stanford over SMU
Seeberg: Louisville over Miami (you stole my joke Hoying)

Week 7: Duck, Die Nasty

Standings:

1.) Hoying 16-7 (2-4 upset)
1.) Draper 16-7 (1-5 upset)
2.) Seeberg 15-8 (1-5 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 14-9 (1-5 upset)

The #1 team is back in action after their bye week, but don't expect them to remain there much longer, even with a win over their bitter rivals. The eyes of the rest of the nation are upon Autzen Stadium for what may rival Georgia - Alabama for the regular season game of the year (unless Penn State has something to say about it).

Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: The Red River Shootout as an SEC game at 3:30?? What is the world coming to?  Honestly, I'm a little surprised this game is still being billed as highly as the past. Yes, it's a big rivalry, but the talent is skewed heavily on one side of the ball.  Texas gets Quinn Ewers back which matters even though Arch was playing well.  OU looks pretty strong on defense, but I don't trust the offense to move the ball at all.  The best hope for Sooner Nation is for a defensive score or a few big plays to keep UT honest.  I don't think it will happen.  Texas will get another boost for taking care of another ranked opponent that is more of a shell (see: Meatchicken, Univ. of).  Hook them.  UT: 27--OU: 13
Hoying: In this grueling 12-game audition process, only two teams have really looked the part of the implacable champion so far. You're intimately familiar with one, and the other is suiting up in burnt orange at the Texas State Fair this weekend. The Longhorns have been superb on both sides of the ball and have already clocked five solid and complete wins in this young season, the crown jewel being a thrashing of the defending national champions* on their home field. If only Ewers and Co. would have had the chance to do that last season. The Longhorns were one game away from a title bout last year, despite the one blemish on their record given to them by...Oklahoma. Texas had appeared to top the Sooners on a field goal with a minute to spare before a heartbreaking TD in the final seconds. But this year, the Sooners can't count on any last-gasp heroics from Dillon Gabriel (hmmmm...). In fact, they can't count on much working on the offensive side of the ball, sputtering to ugly wins over bad teams like Houston and Auburn, and having the other UT step on their necks for 60 minutes on their own home turf. The Red River Shootout is one of the few rivalries where you can really throw the records out the window, but a Texas choke would go down as one of the bigger upsets in the series. Horns big. UT: 34--OU: 13
Schweinfurth: I truly did consider picking Oklahoma here, because weird things happen in this game. But then I saw all of the WR injuries for OU. And I do mean ALL the WR injuries. Let's face it, Oklahoma was probably facing an uphill battle to begin with. Missing some offensive firepower makes this an impossible mountain to climb. UT: 33-OU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, that classic SEC rivalry, Texas and Oklahoma.  Honestly, it hurts my soul a bit to even type that.  Such is the brave new world of college football in 2024.  The pendulum in this rivalry may have swung the Longhorns' way for the foreseeable future.  Crazy things happen in rivalry games, we all know this, but a team coming in already as an underdog and missing FIVE of their top SIX wideouts is insane.  There's just no way the Sooners can put up enough points over four quarters to hang with this Texas squad.  Longhorns comfortably.  UT: 31--OU: 10

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: Honestly, I think this game will be a lot closer than most expect.  The close loss to the Gophers on the road are having the world hop off the Trojan bandwagon, but Lincoln Riley is good for 1 or 2 stinkers a year.  Miller Moss is really talented but he'll have his hands full with the Nittany Lion defense.  The game will come down to Drew Allar.  Is he who we thought he was or has he developed into something more? I don't think he's leapt into the elite category, but competence is on the docket. This one will be closer than the experts think.  I'm really close to pulling the trigger, but Franklin usually wins all the games outside of the truly elite matchups (which he loses nearly all).  The Lions squeak a victory in Los Angeles to stay perfect.  PSU: 21--USC: 20 
Hoying: Remember when we thought that maybe USC had fixed their defensive problems after all? Yeah, turns out not so much. Michigan didn't throw any wrinkles at the Trojans to eke out a win, USC just ran a bad scheme for an entire half and then showed off their lack of tackling prowess in do-or-die time. Of course, it doesn't speak much for the Trojan offense, either, when they go to Minnesota and put up 10 points fewer than the aforementioned Wolverines did. Penn State, meanwhile has been quietly excellent all season. They're not quite on Ohio State's level but I truly think they are the biggest stumbling block to an undefeated Buckeye regular season (spoilers for my pick below). Drew Allar is finally performing as promised, and the defense, while not quite as elite as last year, is still sufficient to slow down all but the most potent of attacks. The weird Big Ten travel bug (teams traveling at least two time zones are 1-8 in conference this year) will stop this one from being a laugher, but Penn State is too good and too balanced on offense for the Trojans to keep up. PSU: 31--USC: 24
Schweinfurth: Man, USC is bad against the run. And I do mean bad. Just look at what TUN did by just running power over, and over, and over, and...you get the point. Penn State can actually throw the ball, if they let Allar rip it. I'm really not sure it will matter. This defense was supposed to get sorted out for the Trojans, but it's still stinky poo. I like the Lions here, even if Franklin tries to pucker. PSU: 28--USC: 21
Seeberg: Hmmm, an interesting matchup here, particularly for James Franklin.  On one hand, he generally beats everybody he's supposed to beat.  However, he's made millions by playing up his connections to USC every time that job opens up.  If he beats them down, the job won't be as glamorous.  So much for increased paydays for never winning anything of consequence.  The Lions have played nobody, but have looked proper in those games.  USC's defense is actually improved, but is still highly porous against the run.  If the Nittanys get out to a lead, they will be able to run the ball, shorten the game, and there isn't much the Trojans are likely to be able to do about it.  It won't be super attractive, but Franklin keeps the undeserved hype train rolling in Happy Valley.  PSU: 27--USC: 17

Mississippi Rebels @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: The fact that this is a ranked matchup surprised me...the fact that it is a top 13 matchup???? Floored.  LSU has been quietly good since the opening week loss to USC, but further review of the schedule reveals....trash.  A 3 point (comeback) win vs. South Carolina on the road is the only plus with hapless Nicholls State, UCLA, and South Alabama filling out the slate.  Ole Miss crushed SoCar on the road, suffered the hiccup to a better-than-you-thought Kentucky and played some more garbage.  Death Valley at night is no small mountain to climb, but Jaxson Dart and Kiffikins seems to have some mojo this year.  UK won by churning it out on the ground.  I'm not convinced LSU can do the same.  Miss: 31--LSU:20

Hoying: I look at the rankings, I see LSU at #13, and I ask myself, well, how did they get here? Losing to USC looks more troubling than it did a month ago, and the best win is a 3-point victory over South Carolina on a late TD pass, a missed Gamecock last second field goal, and a questionable call negating a game-sealing Gamecock pick-six. Much like the Trojans above, LSU's defense picked up right where last year's ended, and now they don't have freshly minted NFL superstar Jayden Daniels to bail them out on offense, although Garrett Nussmeier has been no slouch in replacing him. He's no Jaxson Dart, though. Ole Miss is doing everything LSU does, only better. That includes fielding perhaps the finest defense of Lane Kiffin's career, which, while a low bar, could be enough to make the difference in this one. I hate riding with the Rebels in big games, but with games against Texas A&M and Alabama coming up for LSU in the next month, there's still plenty of time for them to be exposed as frauds. Miss: 35--LSU: 24
Schweinfurth: I still think Ole' Miss is overrated. With that said, LSU isn't great either. Buuuut. Jaxon Dart can still spin it and Kiffin knows how to use his offensve talent. Rebels win. Miss: 35--LSU: 13
Seeberg: Another top 15 matchup of second-tier, we-get-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-because-we're-in-the-SEC schools.  I don't think either is capable of making much noise in the playoff, so why they're ranked so highly is beyond me.  Regardless, LSU is down much more considerably than the Rebels this season, KY loss notwithstanding.  I expect their offense to bounce back and put enough points on the board to quiet the raucous Death Valley environment.  Miss: 27--LSU: 17

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Game 1 of the 3 game season hath arrived.  Further review of the Buckeye schedule shows that there is a gauntlet to run from here out (Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, IU, TTUN).  This feels like a statement game for the Buckeyes.  They've heard all along about how they 'haven't played anyone' and 'we'll find out soon if they're any good', but this is time for them to prove that this team is the elite of the elite.  The main Oregon 'film' I saw was vs. Idaho (in which they squeaked out a win on the scoreboard even though they dominated the game) and vs. Boise State where they were LUCKY to eke out the win on the scoreboard with 2 special teams TDs.  The biggest red flag was Ashton Jeanty tearing up the Ducks for 192 yards and 3 scores on the ground.  While Jeanty is a special talent, the Buckeyes have 2 special talents at RB.  OSU has been amazing at scoring TDs in the redzone.  Expect more of the same here.  Howard needs to manage the game, make a few key scrambles when needed, and limit turnovers and the rest of the Buckeye offense will cook.  I expect a similar script from all games this year.  Punch/counter-punch in the first half while the defense feels out the Dillon Gabriel attack, then deluge in the 3rd quarter.  Let's not forget that Gabriel's numbers have been nice, but this Buckeye defense has NFL talent.  Multiple explosive plays in the run game drive the Buckeyes to a huge win in Autzen Stadium and propel the Bucks to #1.  OSU: 31--UO: 20
Hoying: I'm officially a believer. This Buckeye team is built to championship specifications, and they should be right in the title mix barring a rapid fire barrage to their own feet. Look no further than the Buckeyes' newfound success in the red zone. As John Madden would say, you have to score points to win football games, and points don't get left off the board anywhere on the field more often than in the red zone. Back in 2019, when the Buckeyes put together the most dominant regular season in history, they finished fourth in red zone TD % in the country, tied with a little program called L.S.U., and settling for three field goals against Clemson ultimately did them in by a single possession. In 2022, when the Bucks were a hooked field goal away from stealing a national championship from the current dynasty, they finished sixth, well ahead of the rest of the Playoff field. In 2020, 2021, and 2023? Not inside the top 40. And this season, the Bucks have scored a touchdown on every single red zone possession, except one (cue the Penn State Super Bowl graphic), and that lone FG possession was thanks to a boneheaded late hit personal foul. With all due respect to CJ Stroud, my all-time favorite Ohio State player on offense, this year's run-first, mobile QB scheme looks much more like the championship teams of Buckeye past. I'm reminded of JT Barrett getting back on the field in 2015 as our red zone specialist, and then taking back the starting job full time once it was clear how many points a true zone read rushing attack was worth. Oregon is currently at a middling 67% red zone TD percentage and a pretty dreadful 81% overall red zone scoring percentage. A few of these empty possessions have been specially delivered by Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel straight into a waiting defender's hands. It's not like Will Howard is immune from turnover-worthy plays either, but (1) Ohio State's defense will be much better at capitalizing on these mistakes than Oregon's will, and (2) Ohio State has the luxury of leaning hard on an elite running attack if the passing game starts to falter. Ashton Jeanty was able to find room to move the Duck D, and I don't think Quinshon and Tre are too many steps behind the all-universe Boise State RB. And they'll have the luxury of a much better offensive line parting the flock. The Bucks carry their momentum into their second bye week and take care of business against the Ducks. For now. OSU: 35--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: I finally started following Parker Fleming (not that Parker Fleming) on Twitter (it will always be Twitter) and there were some stats thrown out this week that made me think a bit. Chip Kelly loves to run RPOs. While the Bucks haven't shown too much of it this year, it's there and has been a Kelly staple. Oregon struggles against this type of play. Hmm. As long as Good Will shows up, the Bucks will be just fine on offense. There are also so many weapons in the Buckeye offense and we haven't even seen the full Buckeye playbook. Defensively, Ohio State has been stout against several types of offenses and really, they just don't let teams score in the red zone. We may see a lot of the spread out offense we saw vs. Marshall to create running room, but Oregon has struggled scoring in the red zone. This feels like a physical beat down by the Buckeyes. Oregon will hang for a bit, but Ohio State is too big and too talented. OSU: 35--UO: 17
Seeberg: I have not been shy about picking against our beloved Buckeyes over the years.  An away matchup against a top 5 opponent would seem a likely occasion to pick against the scarlet and gray again.  In all honesty, however, I just don't see it that way this time.  This Buckeye team, save for slow starts, has been the team we thought it would be on both sides of the ball.  The gradual lead-up to this game culminated with an excellent performance against Iowa.  Save for two self-inflicted gaffes (Howard run call on 4th down was lousy, Howard's INT was the right read but well behind Egbuka), The game would likely have been out of hand even sooner.  Iowa's defense is comparable to Oregon's, but the O-line held up to the tune of 0 sacks and 203 rushing yards at 5.1 per carry.  Oregon is talented, but not as deep as the Bucks' D-line and they will be worn down over 60 minutes.  This is likely the first game the starters will be needed for four quarters, so they should be fresh.  Red zone efficiency will also be huge.  OSU is literally at 100% (with all but 2 being TDs), while Gabriel has already thrown 3 picks in the red zone.  Turnovers/settling for FGs won't cut it against the Buckeye team.  Bring out the orange sauce, Bucks cook Ducks.  OSU: 38--UO: 20

Upset Special
Draper: West Virginia over Iowa State
Hoying: Colorado over Kansas State
Schweinfurth: Cal over Pitt
Seeberg: Vandy over Kentucky

Week 6: Eyes on Columbus

Standings:

1.) Hoying 15-5 (1-4 upset)
2.) Seeberg 14-6 (1-4 upset)
2.) Draper 14-6 (1-4 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 13-7 (1-4 upset)

As the saying goes, they can't all be bangers. After a September chock full of top-level matchups, this week provides a bit of a palate cleanser before a sick two-week run of season-defining showdowns. But any time the Bucks take the field, and TCUN have a better-than-average shot at taking another L, we're here for it.

Missouri Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: While we enter the week of 'meh', there are a couple of interesting games (even if not great ones).  The intrigue here is finding some data on the questions 'Is Missouri ready for the next step?' and 'Will TAMU ever be for-real good?'  The Aggies have been nothing but predictable in their faceplants (see every game over the past 10 years when they were expected to make the leap), but Mizzou has really struggled this year.  Kyle Field may have goofy cheerleaders but it's an intimidating place to play.  I'm not buying that the Tigers are here to stay.  Gimme the home team.  Mizzou: 20--TAMU: 24
Hoying: Top ten (?) Missouri visits ranked (??) Texas A&M. In the future, we won't need the AP top 25 anymore; we'll just take the top 13 SEC teams and shuffle them into the top 12 of the B1G and call it a day. Credit the Tigers for making it out of September unscathed but skating by Boston College and SEC Rutgers (go Dores) in back-to-back games isn't going to move the needle for me. On the home side, it hasn't been too long since Florida vs. A&M was billed as the battle for the SEC basement, and all the Aggies have done since winning that pillow fight is squeeze by Bowling Green and skate by Arkansas on a 4th quarter go-ahead TD. All of Jed Clampett's Texas Tea NIL couldn't buy A&M a serviceable QB this year, and the defense has only been OK. This is another game in which both teams are just begging to get tagged after lackluster play, and this time I think the reversion bug catches up to...A&M. That pedestrian offense just isn't going to get it done again the Tigers (don't ask me how I know). Mizzou: 20--TAMU: 16
Schweinfurth: I don't know what to think about TAMU. They were ranked pretty high coming in, but I can't shake the thought that they were way overrated. This Mizzou team isn't the same one that beat up on a helpless Ohio State team last year, but I still think they are decent. In reality, this feels like two overrated SEC teams battling it out. I'll go with my gut and say Mizzou here. Mizzou: 21--TAMU: 10
Seeberg: Mediocre slate this week but boy is next week a doozy.  Oddly, Missouri is probably a slightly better Notre Dame.  We all know how that went for the Aggies.  I wouldn't expect them to muster too many points in this one either, certainly not enough to win.  Mizzou: 24--TAMU: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Washington Huskies

Draper: I don't know....I just have no idea what to make of TTUN.  Washington is a complete shell of the 2023 version, but UM is essentially the same....without a QB or WR... The ineptitude on offense is painful on the maize and blue sideline, but they keep finding a way for Kalel to transform into superman a few times a game.  The Wolverines are inefficient, bland, boring, and predictable on offense....but the defense can hold it down.  I'm honestly shocked that the Huskies are favored in this game despite the failures on the offensive side for TTUN, but I just don't know how they're going to score points.  The Seattle crowd needs to be a factor to bring the revenge tour out of the Huskies, but I don't think they can do it.  It's going to be gross, low scoring, and boring, but one big play makes the difference.....they can't keep getting away with this... UM: 13--UW: 10
Hoying: You can ask me how far a team can go without a functional offense. I can tell you that I came of age during the early Tressel years (which included 2 BCS bowl wins and a National Championship) and have watched with fascination and slight intestinal discomfort as Iowa has racked up 10-win seasons under Ferentz again and again and again. Sometimes, when you're an elite program, you can just rely on a great player to make a great play, whether it's on offense (Kalel Mullings against USC), defense (Will Johnson against...USC), or special teams (props to whoever baited that Minnesota gunner to pretend to be offsides on the onside kick). Of course, none of this would matter if the home team had maintained any kind of continuity from last year's title run, but losing a star QB, top WR, and practically the entire O-line hasn't worked out any better for Washington than their erstwhile national championship opponent. Amazingly, the Huskies appear to be the better team on paper, with the advanced stats and the bookies giving the home team a slight edge. But I've seen this movie too many times already. Michigan will get out to an early lead as its opponent somehow fails to gameplan for the total of 5 plays the Wolverine ground game is capable of executing, then the Wolverine D will start to break down in the second half before the maize and blue white knuckle out another unsatisfying victory. UM: 17--UW: 16
Schweinfurth: What kind of Houdini act did the Wolverinies pull last week? Get up to a lead and then pay off the refs get lucky on an offside call. Orji cannot throw the ball downfield. That part of TUN's game does not exist this year. At. All. Washington can and will load up the box, I'm just no sure it will matter. The blue team figured out that Donovan Edwards isn't a lead back (hurray NCAA25 cover athlete!). This will be an ugly rock fight. UM: 7--UW: 6
Seeberg: The fact that unranked Washington is favored over (stifles a giggle) top 10 Michigan tells you all you need to know about how good the Wolverines actually are.  Nonetheless, the Huskies are an even further cry from last year's playoff team than the maize and blue.  This one won't be pretty, both stylistically and for the fact that UM will bleh to another win.  Ugh.  UM: 16--UW: 10

Iowa Hawkeyes @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes 

Draper: Honestly, the line here surprised me as well.  I don't really see the Hawkeyes staying close here.  It's similar to the MSU game in that the defense is a step up from the first 3 weeks, but (outside of a horrendous pick by Howard), the Bucks went through the Spartans like *** through a goose.  MAYBE Iowa's defense is better than MSU, but this isn't the stout Hawkeye defense that won games 6-4.  Also, Cade McNamara inspires absolutely no fear in the Bullets.  I expect a similar game to last week, but the Shoe will prevent the yips in the Scarlet and Gray.  I can't see the Bullets giving up more than 14 nor can I see the offense being held in check for 60 minutes.  3 solid quarters by the 1s to put the game to bed then clean up the rest.  Stay healthy.  Iowa: 9--OSU: 38
Hoying: Finally, a trap game with some teeth. During Ryan Day's tenure, most of Ohio State's overmatched opponents haven't had a prayer of knocking off the scarlet and gray, because there was no advantage to exploit. This year's Hawkeyes, in contrast, have the running game to at least make the Silver Bullets sit up and pay attention. Ohio native RB Kaleb Johnson has been about as good as any running back not named Ashton Jeanty this season, which is good news for Iowa as their passing game still hasn't made it out of the Brian Ferentz era. There's a familiar face behind center for the Hawkeyes, and it's not the Spencer Petras who threw for 49 yards the last time Iowa came to Columbus. No, you know him, you hate him, it's Cade McNamara, the man who brought Ohio State's glorious streak in The Game to a close, and the unlikeliest QB to spur a program's return to greatness since Craig Krenzel. Cade wasn't lights-out in that 2021 abomination but he did drop a dime or two right over Denzel Burke's head, and I'm sure the 4-year veterans on this very experienced Buckeye defense haven't forgotten what the Cheat Weasels took from us on that day. He doesn't have the weapons around him that UM had back then, and I don't think Johnson is quite as good as Haskins or Corum, or even perhaps Tre or Quinshon. I think the Hawkeye D is a bit overrated this season, but even if they're just as good as the vaunted Buckeye defense, Iowa will be in bad shape. You can't cover Egbuka, and Smith, and Tate, and Judkins, and Henderson forever, which means that Iowa's only prayer is to fluster Howard as badly as they got to JT back in 2017 and then lead hard on Johnson to close it out. I don't see it happening. After allowing zero sacks against a bloodthirsty Spartan defense last week, the Buckeyes will be patient, let the offensive line set the tone, allow opportunities to develop, and then mercilessly exploit them for massive damage as the Buckeyes pull away in the second half. Iowa: 3--OSU: 31
Schweinfurth: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this one is closer than you think and then the Buckeye offense explodes. It just has that feel about it. Iowa has a very good defense, but they haven't played an offense as multiple and talented as this. I think they hold the Bucks to under 5 yards a carry, but the explosive plays make a difference. Defensively, I think Knowles turns up the heat. Iowa is TUN light with a good running game and a meh passing game. Really, this should go similar to last week. Iowa: 10--OSU: 38
Seeberg: This game has the feel of a "the natives are restless at halftime" tilt.  The 'Shoe can get nervy if games are close through two quarters.  The Hawkeyes can legitimately run it and legitimately stop the run.  Jim Knowles' D has started slow in every game except Western Michigan, and time-consuming drives from Cade and Kaleb and Co. will shorten the game.  Over four quarters, however, the Buckeyes have too much talent- only the Buckeyes can beat the Buckeyes in this one.  Keep the ball, keep the penalties down, and the gray-clad home team should pull away to around the 18.5-point spread, setting the stage for a massive conference(?) contest next week:  Ducks vs. Bucks.  Iowa: 13--OSU: 31

Draper: FSU over Clemson
Hoying: Arkansas over Tennessee
Schweinfurth: Baylor over Iowa State
Seeberg: South Carolina over Ole Miss

Week 5: The Turn of the Tide

 Standings:

1.) Hoying 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Seeberg 11-5 (1-3 upset)
1.) Draper 11-5 (0-4 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-5 (0-4 upset)

In the era of the 12-team Playoff, individual games will start to mean less and less as it's easier to fall off the undefeated wagon and still stay on pace to compete for a title. But there are still marginal teams out there looking to avoid bubble-bursting losses, and, at the top, there are still games that can influence the narrative of the college football hierarchy for seasons to come.

Louisville Cardinals @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: This is an intriguing game after the Irish loss to the Huskies and general "who cares?" win against the Redhawks, but Louisville MIGHT be good? I don't know, but the sharps in Vegas have strong convictions on Notre Dame as the line has moved from ND -4.5 to ND -7! While I'm surprised, maybe Marcus got the yips out against NIU and it's time for business.  I'm leaning on the wiseguys here, but the Cardinals have an uphill battle to sneak one in South Bend.  UL: 16-ND: 28
Hoying: So Notre Dame may not be all they were cracked up to be after knocking off Texas A&M. Riley Leonard has not been the transfer panacea they had hoped for, which isn't that surprising considering they couldn't even ride Sam Hartman to a NY6 Bowl last year. On the other hand, Louisville has been just...ehhhh. After dispatching two FCS teams (oh wait, Jax State is C-USA now, aren't they?) ONE FCS team and Jax State, they struggled to put away Georgia Tech at home. I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams, but I don't think this is the game that knocks Notre Dame out for good this season. Look further ahead on the schedule to USC, or Navy (!), or Army (!!!). UL: 20--ND: 24
Schweinfurth: Was the NIU game a let down game or is it reality? Is Louisville legit? Not really sure. Notre Dame has put up the better schedule to this point. I guess this game comes down to if the Domers can score enough points. Louisville is going to move the ball and put up points. The Irish have struggled moving the ball against better teams. I tend to lean on history here and Notre Dame just has trouble winning the big ones. UL: 28--ND: 24
Seeberg: You know how I know we're still too early in the college football season?  I just asked myself "are either of these teams good?"  And my definitive answer for BOTH squads was a shrug of the shoulders.  ND destroyed a middling Purdue team after losing to the 4th best MAC team at home the week before.  Louisville played a close game against Georgia Tech, the team that was briefly ranked on the heels of a great win against...oops, nevermind.  Sorry, Chief.  It's strength on strength when Louisville is on offense.  Short fields will be critical for the Golden Domers to put up enough points to win this one, but I think they do put up just enough to do it.  UL: 23--ND: 24

Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: Always a marquee matchup, but I don't have a good bead on either team.  The Dawgs slapped Clemson in the 2nd half but looked downright pedestrian against UK.  I haven't seen a UGA run defense get gashed liked they did in Lexington in a long time.  Bama really hasn't seen any true competition.  Yeah, walking into Camp Randall is usually a tall order, but this Wisconsin squad is not the Alvarez wrecking crew.  This is a major statement game for both programs.  Has UGA officially taken over as SEC kings or are they coming for the king and missing? Nick Saban no longer prowls the sideline, but there's no denying the talent.  Milroe has a chance to vault into the heisman conversation, but it will take a LOT to beat this defense.  It's in Tuscaloosa, but I'm going with a TIGHT Georgia win.  I don't think they are nearly as good as the last few years, but I also see regression from the Tide.  UGA: 24--Bama: 20
Hoying: For all of Buckeye Nation dangling the Sword of Damocles over Ryan Day's head for his futility against the rival since 2019, whom do you expect would do a better job? The obvious "never gonna happen" choice would be Kirby Smart, as the owner of two national titles in the last three seasons, notwithstanding that Ruggles' field goal not turning into a pumpkin at the stroke of midnight on New Year's 2023 would instead have put Day and Smart at one title apiece. Given the weak Playoff field last year and how Georgia utterly dog-walked FSU in the Orange Bowl, you could even say that Georgia should have been threepeaters if not for a disappointing upset loss in the SEC Championship. But hark, who was that team that upset Georgia last year? It was Alabama, the same team that has been the Sonic to Kirby's Dr. Robotnik ever since he put on the red visor with the black G. Remember, Kirby didn't stroll into Athens and start winning titles on day 1. Instead, Alabama blocked his path, in the 2017 title game, the 2018 SEC Championship, the 2020 regular season, the 2021 SEC Championship, and, as aforesaid, the 2023 SEC Championship. Kirby's first title only happened because Georgia got to take advantage of a rematch with Alabama in the national championship; his Dawgs have NEVER beaten Alabama in the teams' first matchup of the season. Smart has exactly one undefeated season at Georgia: the year they didn't play Alabama at all! You think Ryan Day has a problem with his rival? But all of this was during the Nick Saban era, and it's not like a lot of other SEC teams were having great success against Old Nick either. This game will be a crucial bellwether for the pecking order of the SEC going forward, setting aside for the moment whether Texas is back. These teams this season play very different styles, with Georgia being the Steady Eddies on offense and Alabama going all-or-nothing every play with Jalen Milroe. With an offense like Alabama's, they're going to get theirs on a few plays; the question is whether they can deliver when it counts. Last year's SEC Championship was decided by a missed field goal and a strip sack fumble, and while I don't expect Carson Beck to be rattled in his second year as a starter, a raucous night environment in Tuscaloosa may cause the weird plays to break the home team's way. I got poor (so to speak) betting against Bama all last season, and they darn near won the national championship anyway. As long as Milroe and his new center (thanks for McLaughlin by the way) are on the same page this year, I'm not picking against the Tide anytime soon. UGA: 24--Bama: 27

Schweinfurth: Some things got lost in the off season. Remembering Milroe has trouble passing, the loss of Nick Saban, and amount of talent that transferred out of Bama just to name a few. Alabama is a good team. Georgia is a great team. The Bulldogs continue to be stacked and made a decent Clemson team look pitiful in week 1. I've got Georgia on the road here. The deck is just too stacked against the Tide. UGA: 35--Bama: 17
Seeberg: Despite inconsistency with throwing (and snaps- may not have been McLaughlin's fault in hindsight), Bama looks every bit the juggernaut they were under Saban.  Enter the recent achilles heel in Georgia, a team with better quarterback play and comparable-to-slightly-better play everywhere else.  The added incentive of payback for last year's SEC title tilt should still be fresh enough in the Bulldogs' minds to not let this one get away.  UGA pulls away late.  UGA: 27--Bama: 16

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Bert has been a fun story, and the Illini might be pretty darn good, but I don't thing they can roll into Happy Valley at night and steal one.  While PSU is still filling the role of 'this is the year we finally take a top spot' (until we face one of the big 2), this is a game they traditionally take.  Home game, hopeful upstart trying to dethrone them (from 3rd place), night game....I've seen this story with Iowa too many times.  In terms of wins over expected, the Illini are kings, but this is too steep of a mountain.  ILL: 17--PSU: 30
Hoying: Buckle up, Buckeye fans. It looks like the 2023 Penn State worldbeater we were all promised last year has finally arrived. The defense is still suffocating (outside of a curious porosity through the air against Bowling Green), and Drew Allar is finally capable of pushing the ball downfield instead of just scrupulously avoiding mistakes. The two headed monster at RB hasn't gone anywhere either, and while they aren't nearly as good as our own world-beaters (or maybe even the Don and Jor-El up north), they'll still be able to cause problems for all but the most elite of run defenses. And Illinois, for all their improvement under Bert, does not have an elite run defense. Or secondary. Or quarterback. Or rushing attack...there's just nothing for the Illini to exploit against Penn State. With teams like Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan still on the schedule, Illinois should be able to snag a bowl berth this year, but wins over the true heavies will need another season or two of development first. Ill: 13--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: Illinois is having a great start to the season so far. A big(ish) road win over Nebraska last week does nothing but bolster the start. Here's the problem, Penn State is one of the more talented teams in the B1G and Drew Allar is lighting it up. This will be step up for the fighting Berts. It may be a step too far. Penn State should win here. ILL: 14--PSU:31
Seeberg: The Illini did the college football world a favor last week by slowing down the Nebraska hype in typically grind-it-out Bielema fashion.  Remember when these two played 9 OTs to be the first to 20?  Illinois would love a similar situation here.  Keeping Penn State in the 20s is possible, but getting into the 20s is more likely to be their issue.  Too much pass rush from the Lions and just enough plays from Allar and Co. make this a 2-score win.  ILL: 13--PSU: 24

THE Ohio State Buckeyes @ Michigan State Spartans

Draper: Will Howard finally breaks in to B1G Play with a road date with Sparty.  Sparty, too, is a shell of their former selves. New front man Jonathan Smith is trying to bring a little more swagger to East Lansing, but this won't happen in a single year.  Aiden Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance...and flashes of 'huh?'.  I think we'll see a little of both here.  The key to this game is to keep the offense chugging along at Mach 5.  Chip Kelly called a masterful game last week setting up these stud running backs for monstrous success.  Howard need only take care of the ball and orchestrate the passes when needed (AND STAY HEALTHY PLEASE!).  MSU doesn't scare me on the defensive side.  The defense was taken to the endzone twice last week, but Marshall made some phenomenally tight throws/catches that Jim Knowles simply tips his cap.  I expect at least 2 turnovers by the bullets, but maybe an explosive play given up.  Another blitz on offense and a steady diet of the Bullets spells success.  OSU: 48--MSU: 16
Hoying: So many dreams of mine have been shattered this season. Not to trail in any game (thanks, Akron). To score 50 points every time (thanks, Marshall). I'll just have to settle for 2019 regular season dominance with 2014 postseason afterburners. And there's nobody better to pace the juggernaut for another week than the Spartans. Remember back in the early Urban days when this game used to be competitive, even back-and-forth? MSU has completely collapsed since then, particularly on defense. Back in 2017, the last two-headed monster of Mike Weber and JK Dobbins racked up over 280 on the ground to pulverize Sparty, and ever since then they've existed to serve as target practice for each Buckeye QB de l’année. Even Honda McCord was bombing all over them just last year, serving up 3 TDs and 149 yards to Maserati Marv in a last push to get him to NY for the Heisman ceremony (it worked). New Green and White coach Jonathan Smith has done a commendable job raiding the transfer portal to shore up the many, many holes that plagued 2023 Michigan State, but this isn't a secondary that can be fixed all at once. And if you thought Jalen Milroe was feast-or-famine (see above), Spartan fans have been tearing their hair out over their own dual-threat anything-is-possible-on-any-play QB, Aiden Chiles. After letting Marshall get the drop on them running out of spread formations, look for the Silver Bullets to play contain, sit back, and wait for Chiles to make a boneheaded mistake. Then keep pounding and pounding and pounding with some catch and runs liberally distributed among this year's WR-by-committee, and hopefully one or two over the top to bolster Howard's deep ball game. Then sit back and relax and watch the Peoples champion salt the game away in the 4th. Man, I loved 2019. OSU: 38--MSU: 13
Schweinfurth: That two headed monster in the Buckeye backfield is just wrong. Judkins is a cheat code and Tre isn't far behind. Combine that with Chip Kelly's running schemes and the Bucks are so hard to stop. I haven't even talked about the receivers yet. I really feel that we haven't seen anything other than fairly vanilla play calls on both sides of the ball. Knowles will dial up a blitz maybe once or twice a game. I'm not freaking out about the defense after last week. They go schemed on a few plays and Marshall's QB made some unreal plays. The offense adds a few wrinkles every week, but it seems fairly basic so far. This week isn't much better as far as the opponent is concerned. I expect more of the same - tons of Judkins and Henderson with some quick hitters from Howard thrown in to keep Sparty honest. This should be a whipping. OSU: 49--MSU: 10
Seeberg: Ah yes, Sparty week.  Great college football fan base, and, frankly, the best team in that state for most of the last decade.  No longer.  Sparty is a shadow of the teams past that sprung huge upsets from time to time.  Still, they're a half step up from previous competition with a good pass rush and an electric-yet-inconsistent QB who will probably throw a 40+ yard TD and a pick six in the same half.  Hoping Buckeye Nation doesn't freak out when a few growing pains, likely in the pass game and pass rush- show up this week.  They will scheme to get Chiles out of the pocket and bring the house any time a passing down hits Will Howard.  That said, this run attack is just too good to get bogged down for four quarters against an inferior opponent, and it will wear Sparty's good D-line down where the depth just isn't quite there.  Slower game, fewer possessions, but a comfortable win nonetheless.  OSU: 38--MSU: 10

Upset Special
Draper: Arizona over Utah
Hoying: Washington State over Boise State
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Ole Miss
Seeberg: Minnesota over Michigan