Week 11: Boilers 'n' Toilets, Plus That One Boilin' Toilet

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 33-10 (0-10 upset)
2.) Hoying 31-12 (1-9 upset)
3.) Draper 28-15 (1-9 upset)
4.) Seeberg 27-16 (2-8 upset)

The nation's last four undefeated teams all hit the road this weekend, and somehow, the least consequential is at the home of the preseason #2 (yes, yes, I know, but this is Let's Go Bucks! after all). We'll soon have a better sense of who really runs the Big 12 this season (no, Cincinnati, not you), as well as whether Texas A&M can continue their hottest start since they were banned from TV back in 1994.

Brigham Young Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders

Draper: This game holds a lot of intrigue and playoff implications.  A BYU win would likely cement them into the Big 12 championship game, but a loss opens the floodgates for all contenders.  Bear Bachmeier is a solid QB that has been playing well all year.  They continue to fall behind then mount comebacks week in and week out.  Tech is at a do or die moment.  Crapping the bed against ASU was their one mulligan and they can ill afford another.  The NIL money is flowing like wine, but they need to cash here.  In Lubbock, the Red Raiders are currently listed as a whopping 10.5 point favorite.  That seems a tad rich to me, but I do think they pull off the win to knock the Cougs from the ranks of the unbeaten.  BYU: 20--TT: 27
Hoying: Good for BYU. A year after a surprising 9-0 start and getting hosed out of the inaugural Playoff Dozen in favor of the SMU team they beat in Dallas, the Cougs are right back in it this season as the only remining unbeaten team outside the Power 2. That isn't enough for a top 6 ranking in the eyes of the Committee, and they're probably right about that, since BYU hasn't done a whole heck of a lot except put a resurgent Ute squad in their place a couple of weeks ago. But opportunity presents itself this week: TTech remains one of the hottest teams nationwide outside of a strange hiccup in the desert against Arizona State. That was the only game that the Red Raiders didn't hit at least 34 points, and it was the only game which their star QB Behren Morton didn't start. I don't want to sell BYU short; their own QB Bear Bachmeier has been a force for them (see, Michigan, freshman QBs don't have to be mid), but Tech is going to make him miserable with perhaps the best D-Line that money can buy. This is the biggest game in Lubbock since Michael Crabtree silenced the Horns and, while I don't think this one is going to have quite such an exciting finish, I expect another favorable result for the home crowd. TTU cruises toward their first Playoff berth in the first year they've cracked the top 25 in the Playoff rankings! BYU: 17--TTU: 34

Schweinfurth: Texas Tech has it all going for them. Good defense, high ranking, confident offense. BYU is that annoying kid that just won’t go away. The seems like a no brainer. Texas Tech is looking like the Big-12 rep right now. BYU: 14–-TTU: 38
Seeberg: BYU wanders in to Lubbock with their magic underwear and undefeated record. Gotta love 11 AM local kicks for top 10 matchups! Regardless, the Red Raiders would likely also still be blemish-free were it not for an injury to the salt man Behren Morton. Also, not only is BYU’s qb a freshman, but he wears #47? It’s like Devin Brown all over again, and we know how well that worked out for him, losing his qb battle to another true freshman. Regardless, the Raiders will re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12…whatever that’s worth. BYU: 17—TTU: 31

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Hey! It's Missouri again.  You'll never guess, but I still don't believe.  A&M is prime for a standard faceplant, and if Mizzou had their QB1, I might pull the trigger, but no Pribula spells trouble.  The Aggies have a legit claim to number 1 right now with a hot QB, a tough defense, and confidence.  Marcel Reed has another nice (not spectacular) performance and the Aggies continue unblemished.  TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 17 
Hoying: Guys, I really really wanted to pick Missouri in this one. They've been much better at home and A&M has been begging to get tagged with lackluster performances against Auburn and Arkansas. But. Penn State transfer QB Beau Pribula injured his ankle (not his fibula) in the Tigers' loss at Vanderbilt, which means now they have to rely on Screaming Yellow Zollers at QB to deliver a win against a top 3 opponent. And to add injury to injury, star Tiger TE Brett Norfleet isn't playing either. Now, Missouri has been a rush-first team this season, but Pribula was a key variable in that formula too, and A&M hasn't been too vulnerable on the ground this year. Look for the Fightin' Texas Aggies to dial up some pressure on the freshman QB and mix in a healthy dose of exotic run fits as well. The eyes of Texas are upon you, UT, to make sure A&M doesn't finish the season unblemished. TAMU: 24--Mizzou: 20

Schweinfurth: Oh man. Two SEC teams. Great. These are at least toward the top of the conference? I think? Look, I have never taken Mizzou seriously, and I’m not sure I can this year either. TAMU: 28—Mizzou: 13
Seeberg: Here we are again, Mizzou’s biggest home game in years, part 2. Part 1 ended poorly with Bama escaping town with a 3-point W. Mizzou has beaten absolutely nobody of note; they’re Tennessee with a slightly better defense. Somehow, the Aggies have also beaten nobody of note in the vaunted SEC, but their drubbing of the golden domers looks better each week. Until this iteration of the Tigers proves me wrong, I’m taking the Aggies in hopes of getting another SEC team out of the rankings. TAMU: 27—Mizzou: 17

Oregon Ducks @ Iowa Hawkeyes

Draper: Weird stuff happens in Iowa City.  Also, do we really know Oregon is any good? Their best win to date is likely...Northwestern? Yeah, Dan Lanning, blah blah, blah, but Iowa was much closer to knocking off the Hoosiers (this is still weird to type). I don't think Ferentz and company have quite enough of the magic dust left to pull this one out, but I won't be absolutely shocked in a weird 2017 Iowa voodoo happens (that game is still baffling).  Regardless, Oregon continues plowing ahead hoping for a loss of the big 2.  Ore: 31--Iowa: 17
Hoying: Bonasera...what has Oregon ever done to make you treat them so disrespectfully? I feel like the country has sort of collectively forgotten about the Ducks after the Indiana loss and the collapse of Penn State. It's not their fault the other two OSUs have been horrible this year, and the Ducks curbstomped both of them the way you'd expect an elite team to. Sure, they fell to Indiana, but so did Iowa, both teams fading down the stretch in the fourth quarter against the Hoosier juggernaut (what a time to be alive). Iowa hasn't changed a lick: sure they only have two losses so far but that's what you get when you've been blessed to play a Big Ten West level schedule so far. Too bad they're facing the Big Ten Way Out West one-two combo this week and next. Teams that don't throw the ball don't beat Oregon, and lo and behold, the Hawks have quite possibly the worst passing game in the nation, led by a quarterback who makes Bryce Underwood on his worst days look like Julian Sayin. Yeah, nobody wants to go play at Kinnick, but there are only so many recipes for beating Oregon under Dan Lanning and Iowa is still serving up 12 helpings of pork tenderloin sandwich every season. Ducks take down Hawks (next up, Team Iceland). Ore: 27--Iowa: 17

Schweinfurth: Not sure I can really give this much thought. Iowa is still Iowa. Okay to good defense, not much offense. Sorry, but you have to score to beat the Ducks. Ore: 35—Iowa: 13
Seeberg: I am, quite frankly, astounded at the amount of attention this game is getting as a potential upset. Barring D/ST scores or multiple short fields I just can’t envision the Hawkeyes scoring enough points to win this one, though they did largely throttle the Hoosiers when they came to Iowa City. I would expect the Ducks to create a turnover or two of their own, however, and Iowa can’t afford mistakes with their razor thin margins. Ducks late. Ore: 23—Iowa: 13

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Purdue Boilermakers

Draper: Someone said that it must be terrible being an OSU fan right now because you simply crush everyone in your path.  Honestly, I'm loving it! However, each game always starts with the pit in your stomach of 'is today the day?'  The nice thing about the 2025 edition of the Buckeyes is that those weird worries are usually quashed very quickly.  I expect the same here.  Yeah, the Boilers played TTUN reasonably close last week, but I think that speaks more to the maize and blue than it does to the old gold.  Ryan Day and Co. always come out of the gate slow on the road (except in Madison?) so I don't know if we'll get fireworks, but it's going to be hard to prevent them with Tate and Smith terrorizing the secondary.  I was wrong in Madison, but this seems like an opportunity to work on the running game and try to get something going up front.  Stop the rotation and cement Bo as the starter.  Once again, get in, get the dub, stay healthy, Go Bucks! OSU: 45--Pur: 13
Hoying: If you're a fan of Parker Fleming (no, not THAT Parker Fleming, wait, why is he still listed as Ohio State's current special teams coordinator?) and his statistical modeling at CFB Graphs, you won't be surprised to know that this is one of those "lots of blue numbers against lots of red numbers" games. Apparently, the only things that Purdue isn't horrible at is success rate on passing plays, offensive success on late downs, and minimizing points given up on opponents' potential scoring drives. That's...not a lot to go on, especially since Ohio State leads the nation in getting teams off the field on 3rd down and stuffing them on 4th. You could be forgiven for thinking that Ohio State might not be putting in quite the effort or energy for this game as they did for Jim Knowles's unhappy homecoming last week. But if you've watched Ryan Day closely this season, you'll see that he's taken his usual positivity coach speak demeanor and laced it with a healthy(?) dose of elite coach psychopath. It's like the Buckeyes are in permanent cruise control this season, but set at 75 MPH on the open road while everyone else is in a go-kart. Anyone pulls up close, and the Bucks hit the nitro. Not this week though. OSU: 38--Pur: 6

Schweinfurth: Number 1 Ohio State comes rumbling into Purdue. I’ve heard this before. It ended…not good. Good news, this Purdue team is not great. Ryan Day has shown that this team will turn up the pressure and tempo if he has to. It wont be needed here. Bucks should win pretty handily. OSU: 42—Pur: 6

Seeberg: *The 2018 Boilermakers can’t hurt you* I say to myself while slowly rocking back and forth in a dark corner somewhere. Thankfully, this statement is accurate as we actually have their best offensive weapon from last season, and their best weapon this season is on the shelf in starting RB in Devin Mockobee. Lots of short possessions for their offense should provide lots of opportunities for ours. The weather looks mediocre so deep shots may be impacted, but I expect Sayin to remain precise on short and intermediate throws. Perhaps the run game can get right too? Maybe a pick 6 or punt return TD? It all feels in play. Boring wins are good wins, and if this one is in doubt in the second half, something has gone apocalyptically wrong. HAMMER that Max Klare anytime TD prop if you can get it people! OSU: 38—Pur: 3

Upset Special

Draper: Penn State over Indiana
Hoying: Mississippi State over Georgia

Schweinfurth: Auburn over Vandy
Seeberg: Cal over Louisville 

Week 10: Black Noon Saturday

Standings:

1.) Hoying 28-10 (1-8 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 28-10 (0-9 upset)
3.) Draper 24-14 (1-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 23-15 (2-7 upset)

Before this season started, everybody marked down November 1st as the must-see college football date of the year. Penn State / Ohio State, Georgia / Florida, Miami / SMU, Oklahoma / Tennessee, Texas Tech / Kansas State, heck even Arizona State and Iowa State were both ranked preseason. As it stands, we're a Texas overtime win against Mississippi State away from this weekend turning out to be a total dud. There should be some competitive matches (hopefully far from home), but you'll have to seek your titanic clashes elsewhere.

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Do I keep picking against the Dores to my peril? Pimp Vandy is still rockin' after a big home win over the Tigers, but we all just stare thinking...'Can they really keep getting away with it?'.  Honestly, they're sound on both sides of the ball and have solid QB play. Pavia is the wildcard in the Heisman race, but having to face this Longhorn defense in Austin could be a tall task. Yeah, the defense wasn't spectacular against CLANGA, but this squad is still very solid.  With a possible new signal caller, how can we call for the rankings dog to win? Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice.....sigh...Hook them.  Vandy: 13--UT: 17
Hoying: OK, Texas, you've had your two months to screw around after squandering your preseason #1 ranking. Are you going to do anything this year or not? And no, kicking off Oklahoma's free fall doesn't count. The Horns' defense has been about as good as advertised, as long as you're not playing DJ Lagway or...Mississippi State apparently, but Arch continues to refuse to get out of second gear. Sure, UT put up 31 in the 4th quarter and overtime last week but that doesn't become necessary unless your offense putters around for the previous three quarters. At least Arch cleared concussion protocol, sparing Texas's fortunes from resting with former Trojan QB Matthew Caldwell. Not USC Trojan, Troy Trojan (also Gardner-Webb) (also Jacksonville State). Meanwhile, Vanderbilt showed last week against Missouri that it can win with defense, a week after providing a proof of concept for moving the ball against LSU (A&M thanks you for your service). Texas may be desperate and dangerous as their national title hopes hang by a thread, but somehow Vandy comes into this one with the better team. At this rate, the Buckeyes are going to have to wait until Thanksgiving for the opportunity to put a quality win on their schedule, but the Dore slams on what seemed like a promising season for UT. Vandy: 23--UT: 20

Schweinfurth: I'm still not sure how good either of these teams are. I do think Texas has a better defense. Arch needs to do just enough to keep Texas in it. Vandy: 21: UT: 24
Seeberg: Well, Vandy has proven they can beat a decent team at home…but how about on the road? Texas is no Bama (post-week-1 at least), but they still boast an excellent defense. Another low-scoring slog like the Commodes Commodores managed to win against Mizzou is likely in order. Anyone have Pavia as having the better odds for a Heisman of these two QBs?? No, no you didn’t. Regardless, both QBs will have no shot after this week. Longhorns try to salvage the best win for our Buckeyes for another week. Vandy: 13—UT: 20

Southern California Trojans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

Draper: Hard to care about this game.  USC has some juice then poops it away every time.  And Nebraska is...Nebraska.  The offensive talent from LA is superior.  If they can handle the travel, I think they'll pull it out.  I'm done thinking Nebraska/Raiola is going to ever amount to anything.  USC: 31--Neb: 20
Hoying: After Penn State went into a tailspin (oh-ee-yeah), there was a slim chance that Big Noon Saturday might move out to Lincoln this week for a Big Ten game with actual Playoff implications. Then the Huskers got blasted by Minnesota on Friday night and FOX decided to stick with the big names for Big Noon. This game still matters, as the Trojans are good enough to potentially make some noise in the Playoff (and are still technically in the Big Ten title hunt), and Nebraska has a shockingly easy Big Ten schedule that manages to avoid Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. The thing is, the Huskers just aren't that impressive. After a gutwrenching home loss against Michigan, the Huskers have spent the last month struggling to put away Michigan State, Maryland, and Northwestern, as well as the aforementioned Gopher debacle. USC is up and down but their blemishes have been getting stacked by a very good Notre Dame team in South Bend and coming up just short against a very good Illinois team. The Trojans are on the road again here but nothing Nebraska is doing inspires any confidence. Keep riding that Cincinnati win (while it still matters, see below). USC: 38--Neb: 24

Schweinfurth: Nebraska is up and down more than a toilet seat. I don't trust either defense, but I know I really don't trust Wannabe Mahomes. USC: 35--Neb: 17
Seeberg: Nebraska has 6 wins and is playing a ranked team. Their only shot was playing this at 9 AM Pacific time to mess with the Trojans’ body clocks. No such luck. Don’t overthink this one. USC: 27—Neb: 17

Oklahoma Sooners @ Tennessee Volunteers

Draper: What do we do with the Sooners? I really did (still do?) believe in Venables' defense which is nasty (yet undisciplined), but Mateer doesn't seem to have 'it'.  This stretch run by the Sooners is brutal on paper and could be the same in reality.  Tennessee looked like a cool fun story maintaining success until...they crashed like always.  They're still very talented and could sneak into the playoffs, but not even the talking heads at ESPN would have these teams advancing far (I kid, I kid.....the talking heads would DEFINITELY pick these SEC teams to lap the field).  Defense tells me take the Sooners, but home field and quarterback play favor the Vols.  Smokey it is.  OU: 17--UT: 27
Hoying: So I think I have Tennessee pegged. They beat their bad opponents and lose to the good ones (time to kick the Heupel tires, Penn State). But I'm not sure which category Oklahoma falls into. The myth of the Brent Venables defense was badly exposed by Ole Miss last week while the Vols were cruising past SEC-basement Kentucky. September Heisman nominee John Mateer has steered the Sooners to two losses in their last three games, and I'm tired of picking them and coming up empty (except against Michigan, whoops). True, Tennessee hasn't been stopping anybody this year, but the way the offense has been cooking both through the air and on the ground, it hasn't mattered. Just stay away from overtime and half-closing pick sixes. It's beginning to look a lot like last year... OU: 24--UT: 27

Schweinfurth: I haven't watched either team all year. Going with my gut though. OU: 17--UT: 14
Seeberg: Yet another installment of “are either of these SEC teams actually good?” OU has a really good defense, but they were exposed somewhat last week by the Rebels, and Aguilar is a more accurate passer than Chambliss. On the flip side, the Vols’ best win is…an OT loss- at home- to Georgia? #qualityloss strikes again. I still think OU is the better team here, but I’m still not convinced Mateer is back to his pre-injury form. When in doubt, go with the home team. OU: 24—UT: 31

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Utah Utes

Draper: The Big 12 is about to get really spicy.  UC and BYU are undefeated in conference with TT and Houston sneaking around with 1 loss....and Utah is poised just behind them.  Utah has too steep of a hill to climb after losses to both BYU and Texas Tech, but they will definitely make a difference in the stretch run.  Rice Eccles is a tough place to play and we continue to talk about the travel woes of these super conferences.  Oh yeah, UC's schedule has been hot garbage outside of the moderately nice win over Iowa State.  Gameday will be there for some reason (thanks, Penn State), and the Utes will make it tough for the Bearcats.  UC: 17--Utah: 34

Hoying: Get your afternoon nap in, Bearcat fans, because you'll be up late watching this one. You might even get to experience the Daylight Saving Time fall back in real time before the clock hits zero. Welcome to life in the new look Big 12. Unfortunately, you'll be without the services of your top offensive weapon, the Buckeyes' erstwhile perennial deep in the depth chart mainstay Evan Pryor. Still a shame that he (and the rest of our running back room other than Tre) transferred, I would have loved to see him really get a chance to produce in the scarlet and gray. Now we won't even get a chance to see him produce in Cinci's biggest road game of the year. Utah QB Devon Dampier is banged up as well, but that's practically a prerequisite to start for the Utes these past few years. The 'Cats won't be as easy to crush as Deion's dopes were last week, but they'll be too far out of their element to hold serve in the Big 12 race for another week. UC: 20--Utah: 27

Schweinfurth: Cincy isn't what it was under Fickell. Utah is that team that just hangs around the top 25 every year. I have more faith in the Utes. Cin: 10--Utah: 21
Seeberg: Ah yes, the other ranked Ohio team. I guess the Bearcats are hanging their claws on that win against then-ranked Iowa State, but this team lost to Nebraska at home. Hard to fathom that team winning a midnight ET game at Utah. Cin: 17–Utah: 30

Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: I have a weird feeling in my gut about this game that we'd better not eff around.  Penn State is a shell of their former selves, but sometimes a cornered animal only has one thing left to keep them going.  Back up QB's are always a wild card, but I do take solace in their lack of WR talent....again.  The running backs for the Lions are quality seniors, but I have a hard time seeing them destroy the Bullets.  On the defensive side of the ball, they still have some dudes, but no DUDES.  Knowles' scheme takes time (and talented players) to hit and PSU doesn't have it down yet....but....the well oiled machine in Columbus is slightly due for a little hiccup.  I have full faith that the coaches will be locked in and have the team prepared, but if there is a little adversity, we need to close ranks and fight.  Knowles will have some wrinkles planned and will want this more than anything else.  I think the OSU coaches are approaching this correctly and will be business as usual.  If (when?) adversity strikes, if the Buckeyes stay locked in to their gameplan, no worries.  An early turnover by Sayin and a surprising deficit scare the folks in black....at a black out...at a school whose colors DON'T include black...at noon (I hate this crap so much), but the brotherhood takes hold and the forces of good triumph.  PSU: 10--OSU: 31
Hoying: Backup QBs and backup coaches create unpredictability, which is not ideal when you're the team with the decided advantage on a normal day. That being said, we did get a chance to see backup Penn State QB Ethan Grunkemeyer a couple of weeks ago and the results weren't great. 15 of 28 for 93 yards to be exact, and now he gets to face the nation's top pass defense in a blackout at...noon? Look, I get that we're getting into ridiculously early sunset season, but this game is on the last day of DST and it's kicking off when the sun is still at its 30 degrees above the horizon Ohio fall zenith. Thankfully, the team isn't wearing those awful black unis, but that makes the blackout make even less sense, as the Buckeye faithful cannot be bothered to adjust their clothing to fit whatever bright idea the athletics marketing team has rolled out. Remember the helmet stripe game against Ohio? As for the game, the defensive game plan for Ohio State should be business as usual, only with the added bonus of facing Grunkadelic instead of Checkdown Charlie supreme Drew Allar. The more interesting matchup will be on the other side of the ball, where we can find out just how far the Lions have advanced into the Knowles defense installation process. Interestingly, PSU has much better success defending the pass than the run this season, which creates interesting incentives for a Buckeye offense coming off of its best day throwing the ball so far this year. I expect the restraining bolts freshly removed from the RPO game to remain safely in the trash as Sayin is once again given the keys to the Cadillac to take whatever the defense gives him on land or in the sky. Maybe he can have a Heisman moment or two to go along with his gaudy yet somehow also boring stats. The game everyone circled during the preseason passes without much consternation, and Buckeye Nation refocuses its attention on THEM once again. PSU: 3--OSU: 27

Schweinfurth: Penn State doesn't have a QB. This dude is making his second start. It's also in The Shoe. I like the Bucks' chances here. Yes, the kitties have pride to play for, but this Buckeye team just seems to be different. Time for Arvell Reese to eat. We all know evil Ryan Day will show up at some point. Why not now? PSU: 7--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Okay folks I’ll be honest. This one scares me. The Lions are in free fall mode but it’s not like their talent vanished overnight. This game could be characterized into their season. If Allar were healthy I’d be downright terrified. With Franklin gone, they have a markedly better chance to win an actual game of consequence. Kaytron Allen was properly utilized against Iowa, getting a career high in carries to the tune of nearly 150 yards against an excellent defense. If they can run it and stay on schedule, things could get dicey. I’m banking on Patricia to dial up enough good stuff to get them into obvious passing situations. Don’t be surprised if it’s competitive for a half. Of course Day will want to obliterate Jim Knowles who stubbornly won’t simplify his defense and it has clearly hamstrung a very talented unit (albeit missing their best LB). Execute in the red zone, keep Sayin clean, and just get out of the ‘Shoe with the W. PSU: 13—OSU: 27

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Georgia
Hoying: Virginia Tech over Louisville
Schweinfurth: Cal over Virginia 
Seeberg: Kansas State over Texas Tech

Week 9: The Best Thing About Being 7-0 Is...Staying 7-0

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 26-8 (0-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 22-12 (2-6 upset)
3.) Draper 22-12 (1-7 upset)

Bye weeks come but twice a year, so savor this opportunity to visit your local pumpkin patch or corn maze, catch up on your outstanding yard work...or lock in for another banger slate with intriguing matchups from coast to coast.

Mississippi Rebels @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: This is a sneakily tricky matchup.  Ole Kiffikins has Trinidad Chambliss and Co. rocking on the offensive end and looked like they were going to steal one at UGA...until it all fell apart.  Brent Venables has most teams residing in Bo-Pelini-land with a smashmouth defense that is playing up to the hype.  A classic offense vs. defense matchup.  Normally, the edge goes to the defense. Getting John Mateer back and fully healthy (I think) will be crucial to the somewhat pedestrian Sooner offense. I wouldn't be shocked with any outcome, but the a Rebels win would position them nicely for a playoff run as their remaining schedule is just crap.  OU on the other hand has a murderer's row. With that being said, I think the Sooner Schooner continues rumbling in Norman and Kiffin contemplates real estate in Gainsville.  Miss: 17--OU: 23 
Hoying: Welp, serves me right for believing in each of these teams over the last two weeks. You could say that Oklahoma paid the price for rushing John Mateer back onto the field, but Ole Miss has been working all year with a backup QB, and their offense wasn't the (main) reason they lost to Georgia. And Mateer isn't going to be playing any great defense this week; the Rebs haven't held an SEC opponent, or Washington State, under 20 points all season (we are spoiled, Buckeye Nation). True, Ole Miss's weakness is on the ground, and the Sooners haven't really made their hay running the ball this season, but they were able to find some running room last week at South Carolina. The real question in this one is whether the Rebels will be able to move the ball against a stiff Brent Venables defense. The only team to crack 20 against OU was Texas, who needed help from three Mateer INTs. I don't think Oklahoma has a huge advantage here, but being at home should make the difference. Miss: 20--OU: 24

Schweinfurth: Outside of the Texas game, Oklahoma has looked really good. Mateer was clearly rushed back for that one. Ole Miss feels like that middling team that just hangs around but won't do much. Clearly, the Sooners are the better team. Kiffin gets mad because his team doesn't score how he wants. Miss: 14--OU: 27
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of two actually decent SEC teams (LSU=not decent). The Sooners obviously pushed Mateer back into service a week early but seem to have righted the ship. Ole Miss, meanwhile, looked like a juggernaut offensively against Georgia, until it mattered and Kirby and Co figured some things out. The last quarter and a half may provide a blueprint for Oklahoma’s superior defense to stymie the Rebels. Sooners and Rebels swap places in the SEC-laden top 25. Bleh. Miss: 19—OU: 24 

South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: So....USF was the early season G5 darling, then it transferred to Memphis.  After a stinker vs. a random guy who replaced Trent Dilfer (Elvis Grbac?), this game has all the playoff implications one could ask for.  There's a decent chance the winner has the inside track to the G5 representation in the playoff and the loser is just plain out.  A virtual elimination game in October, and we're in Memphis.  However, Memphis has one decent win (over Arkansas--who isn't very good) while USF has 1.5 decent wins (Boise and @Florida--which is always tough).  ESPN has this as a pure coin flip and it really does seem that way, but I'll give the edge to the team who has won on the road before.  Go Bulls.  USF: 20--Mem: 17
Hoying: Woof, Tigers. 6-0 with a win over Arkansas and you lose to UAB? The team that was so bad they got Trent Dilfer fired midseason? I guess the lesson here is to watch out for teams with fired coaches and nothing to lose (uh-oh) (x2). South Florida were the darlings of September before Miami snapped them back to reality, but they've been on a tear through the AC since, including handing North Texas their only loss (and by 27 no less). This one will likely come down to the quality of the offense. The Bulls are averaging less than 3 points per quality drive (a drive penetrating the opponent's 40 or scoring a TD, RIP Eckel Rate) and only putting quality drives together 36.5% of the time, while Memphis gets 4.4 points out of their quality drives and gets going at a much healthier 45.2% rate. Add in a punishing Memphis ground game with RBs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, along with QB Brendon Lewis, and I think the honeymoon is over for USF. USF: 17--Mem: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm flipping a coin here. Sorry, this one falls in the category of not enough time to pay attention to non-P5 teams. Yea, I'm that guy this year. Coin says: USF: 31--Mem: 20
Seeberg: Fun matchup here that I hope gets the attention it deserves. Both teams are eyeing a playoff bid now that Ashton Jeanty is a pro. I expect Memphis to move the ball pretty well, but USF can sling it and run it with dual threat QB Byron Brown at the helm. I don’t think the Bulls are good enough to run away and hide in the road environment a la OSU at Illinois, but I do think they have the horses to pull away late. USF: 35—Mem: 24

Missouri Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: And we meet again Mr. Vanderbilt.  Diego Pavia and Clark Lea (he's so gone) have Vanderbilt...yes, Vanderbilt knocking on the doors of the playoffs, not because of a nice conference draw or lucky bounces, but because they're actually very talented.  I thought we'd see the shine come off last week, but they went right at LSU and took it to 'em.  Missouri is a team I just can't figure out.  They seem to flirt with 9-3, 10-2 every year, and I just don't care.  We keep expecting the Dores to stop this madness, but, like Indiana, they have some dogs and keep coming.  Pavia continues to force his way into the Heisman conversation and Vandy keeps it rolling.  Mizz: 20--Vandy: 30
Hoying: Here they are: the teams that won't die. Both of them keep hanging around with much better rankings than they deserve. Seriously, what is Missouri's best win? A quality loss to Alabama? And does anyone expect either of these teams to compete for the SEC championship? We've seen Vanderbilt's ceiling; they left it on the field in Tuscaloosa in the second quarter. The offense is good enough to break through the LSU brick wall but will Mizzou be able to hold serve? QB Beau Pribula is serviceable, certainly good enough to be a backup on a national title contender (and maybe even a starter if the first-stringer would, say, suffer a season ending injury) but he's no Go Diego Go. The swagmaster continues to take the SEC by storm, and he's not stopping for the likes of Missouri. Going to Austin next week may be a bit of a rude awakening, but the dream continues for now. Mizz: 24--Vandy: 30

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I'm not quite sure of. I will stay with the chaos QB though. Mizz: 35--Vandy: 38
Seeberg: Quite frankly it’s sad that we’re in late October and I have NO idea if either of these teams is any good. The super conferences have watered down everyone’s schedules. These two have a combined 1 ranked win- and LSU has no business being ranked. Diego is building a Heisman campaign…who would’ve thought Heisman front runners would be housed in Nashville and Bloomington?? However, defense travels, as does the run game, and the Tigers have both. Pavia is hitting some real defenses the next couple weeks, and those Heisman hopes will be dashed as Sayin climbs up the rankings by literally putting up EA CFB completion numbers. Tigers late. Mizz: 27—Vandy: 20

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Washington Huskies

Draper: Are either of these teams good? Are they bad? I have no freaking clue.  I tend to think that they're neither, but the winner of this game may vault to top 5 status in the Big 10 (by top 5, I mean....5th).Luke Altmeyer has been wonderful all year except when playing a top 2 team, but Washington's defense isn't special.  This comes down to the play of Demond Williams.  If he's cooking, the Huskies should take control, but if he's off, old Bert will reign supreme.  In Seattle, I think Williams and the Husky offense can get it done (unless they play OSU).  The west coast takes a small step forward to relevance.  Ill: 24--UW: 31
Hoying: In lieu of watching the Buckeyes this week, enjoy this showcase of the pretty good teams the Buckeyes beat by double digits on the road. Each has taken an additional hit, though only one of them lost by 50+. Washington, somewhat worryingly, has had a complete failure to launch against both of the recent national champions they've played this year, although a soft and exploitable Illini secondary may be just what the doctor ordered to get the Huskies back on track. Defense travels, but Illinois doesn't have a great defense and they're traveling very, very far, something teams don't seem to be able to get away this season unless you're in the Tom Raper RV advertising area. Don't expect Demond Williams to toss another 3 INTs this week, particularly since I don't expect UW to be doing a lot of throwing playing from behind. It's a shame, really, since the Illini's remaining schedule sets up rather nicely for them to reach double digits and a likely Playoff berth if they can just survive this week, but I think Washington is just a little bit better and have the roar of the Seattle crowd behind them. Ill: 24--UW: 33

Schweinfurth: Washington moved the ball against TTUN, they just had a lot of errors in the red zone. Illinois doesn't seem to have the defense or offensive weaponry to keep up with UW. The Huskies should put up some numbers here. Ill: 28--UW: 42 
Seeberg: So let’s track this. Ohio State is this year’s Ohio State, Indiana is this year’s Oregon, Oregon is this year’s Penn State, and who is this year’s Indiana? A lot of money was on it being Illinois, but this is a tricky road contest. Win this one and the schedule softens to a nice 10-2 landing spot somewhere likely on the inside edge of the playoffs. Washington is another of the boatload of 5-2 B1G squads (seriously, NW is 5-2 as is every single one of their remaining  opponents), and they can score it. A lousy showing against UM should have them motivated. The Illini got an extra week to prep for this one, but umbrella coverage won’t work against a mobile QB, and any team that gives up 27 to Purdue is in trouble. Ill: 20—UW: 30

Upset Special

Draper: CLANGA over Texas
Hoying: South Carolina over Alabama
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Miami
Seeberg: Syracuse over Georgia Tech

Week 8: Southern Discomfort

Standings:

1.) Hoying 22-7 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 21-8 (0-7 upset)
3.) Draper 19-10 (1-6 upset)
4.) Seeberg 17-12 (2-5 upset)

After the murderer's row the Big Ten presented last week, America's focus turns a bit further south to check in on three matchups between teams with one loss or fewer. Elsewhere, one of America's most storied rivalries is renewed for perhaps the final time in the foreseeable future, and a corpse is presented for desecration.

Louisiana State Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: Is Vandy for real? I think they are, but can they handle the spotlight?  Last time out, they started strong, but crashed late. Pavia has Vanderbilt believing, but there's believing and there's delivering.  The Dores don't have the athletes to match with the top teams (and they never will). Of course that doesn't mean they can't compete, but this feels like a correction week for the Tigahs.  No, LSU isn't the world beater everyone thought after beating Clemson, but they're a solid team.  This feels like a game in which Nussmeier regresses (progresses?) back to the positive end and Vandy takes a step back.  Sometimes, the young upstart needs a reminder.  LSU: 24--Vandy: 17
Hoying: Ah yes, the classic "offense" vs. "defense" showdown. Except, for the first time since before Joey B got to town, the Tigers are the "defense" half of the matchup. Preseason Heisman favorite-turned-clunker (join the crowd) Garrett Nussmeier hasn't been able to get LSU out of second gear, and the running game is atrocious, but nobody is moving the ball on the Tigers this season. That is, except for Ole Miss, who racked up 480 yards against LSU and never really seemed threatened even the Rebs only won by a single score. That said, nobody has been able to stop the Commodores...until the Tide slammed a shutout second half on them in the Vanderbilt's last outing. The advanced stats still aDore (sorry) Vanderbilt's offense, though, as one of the most efficient in the nation, and the stats show a pronounced edge for Vandy overall. Alarm bells are going off in my head for leaning toward picking Vanderbilt to beat LSU, but I'm thinking the Tigers are still getting way, way too much credit for beating a mediocre Clemson team in the opener. Get ready for another SEC shakeup, and for every SEC-head's Week 2 #1 team to be put on Playoff life support. LSU: 17--Vandy: 20

Schweinfurth: Vandy gave Bama all they could handle until a late score. Impressive by a still plucky team. But here come the Tigers and "I turn purple" Brian Kelly. I'm really not sure which team I have more faith in. I don't think Vandy is all they are cooked up to be, but I feel the same about LSU. Diego Pavia is the ultimate chaos QB, so lets go with that. LSU: 17--Vandy: 28
Seeberg: Are either of these teams…(what’s the word I’m looking for), good? The jury is still out but don’t let that stop the AP from putting them both in the top 20. Pavia has been quiet since his humbling at the hands of the Crimson Tide. He and Nussmeyer are both still serviceable but not anywhere near as good as expected. Has Garrett been hurt? Who knows. Neither team runs it well either - heck, Pavia is the Commodores’ leading rusher. This is just a coin flip. So, being a pessimist, I’ll take Vandy so both meh teams stay ranked. Barf. LSU: 20—Vandy: 24

Mississippi Rebels @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Many of the matchups this week are juicy.  Ole Miss has (quietly) been very strong this year while UGA is not close to the Death Star they've been in the past. However, the schedules are not balanced.  The Rebs have a solid win at home vs. LSU, but nothing else to speak of.  The Dawgs dropped a home game to the Tide (but made a valiant comeback) but won in Knoxville and Auburn (albeit ugly).  I want to pick Ole Miss and was going to...until I dove a little deeper.  I wouldn't be shocked if UGA stumbles again, but Kiffin's resume doesn't hold the water I thought it did.  Dawgs reclaim Sanford.  Miss: 20--UGA: 30
Hoying: You can tell it's going to be a good week of college football because I look at all of these matchups (except one) and just say "I don't know". Despite being one of seven remaining undefeated Power 4 teams, the Rebs haven't  yet turned in two-score win against any of their Power 4 opponents this year. Georgia has been quietly disappointing as well, arguably getting outplayed by SEC basement dweller Auburn last week. Ole Miss is the standard Lane Kiffin "great offense, unreliable defense, also the offense will just disappear in the biggest games of the year", but Georgia isn't the brick wall on D that they were during their title runs. The Dawgs are especially vulnerable through the air; Ty Simpson ate them for lunch after Jalen Milroe did the same to them last year. That's bad news against Mississippi's backup QB sensation (and legitimate all-SEC threat) Trinidad Chambliss. As stated above, not even LSU could meaningfully slow Ole Miss down, and the Tigers have a much better defense than the Dawgs do. Here's another instance of my instincts screaming at me to do otherwise, but I think the Rebs get one over on Georgia for the second straight year. Miss: 27--UGA: 24

Schweinfurth: Here's the thing, Georgia is the better team. At least I think so. Add in the Dawgs are at home, yea, pretty easy. Miss: 13--UGA: 21
Seeberg: Ole Miss heads between the hedges with their backup-turned-starter at QB. Trinidad Chambliss may well be a star in the making, but this isn’t exactly an inviting first career road start, even if the Bulldogs aren’t the wrecking ball on D that they were a few years ago. Ole Miss might build Lane a statue already if he wins this one, but he’s not quite there yet. The old dawg (see what I did there?) stays on top for another year. Miss: 20—UGA: 27

Southern California Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Another SUPER interesting and incredibly important game for both teams.  If the Irish drop this game, the playoff is done.  If the Trojans take the L, they would need some help to sneak into the playoffs (including a win in Eugene).  Honestly, the Trojans' resume to date is pretty decent.  They almost came back to beat the Illini after the cross country trip (sort of) and took care of the Wolverines, but there is a decent amount of fluff.  Notre Dame has the 2 losses, albeit to good teams, but a whole bunch of crap rounding out the schedule.  The best player on the field is wearing gold but not on the helmet.  Love is a great RB but the Trojans bottled Haynes and Co. up for the most part.  Makai Lemon is that dude and an absolute monster for the Trojans.  If Maiava can get the ball in his area, the Trojans have a great shot.  No Bush push needed, but the Irish's hopes of the playoff evaporate. USC: 27--ND: 20
Hoying: Buckle up, buckaroos. The game down between the hedges may have the highest ranked teams this weekend, but this one should be the headliner of the week. This season, when these teams are good, they're really good, and when they're bad, well, they've lost a combined three games, to three ranked teams, by an aggregate 6 points. It's possible that the Trojans' domination of the hated team up north last week is a bit of fool's gold, as the other team that walloped the Wolverines (Oklahoma) was exposed a bit last week and it's within the realm of possibility that UM is absolute dogwater for the second straight year. But that was the sixth straight game this year that the Trojans have put up at least 31 points, and they've showed no signs of slowing down. The Irish have been deceptively mediocre on defense this year, so it'll be up to Lloyd Carr's grandson and the Price/Love train to outscore USC. I don't think it's happening this year. These Trojans just look different. Even in the loss to Illinois, USC mounted a furious rally to go ahead late before Illinois hit the game winning field goal at the last second, and the Trojans haven't been seriously challenged otherwise. USC stakes their claim for another Playoff run. USC: 34--ND: 31

Schweinfurth: I haven't watched much of either team, but I do think Notre Dame is better than the two losses they have on their record. USC is up and down. The Irish should be able to ground and pound their way to a win. USC: 17--ND: 31
Seeberg: Man it’s hard to know what to make of this one. ND has no wins of note, USC just manhandled UM. The fact that they were the more physical team was eye-opening - and makes me think they are a serious contender for the Irish. CJ Carr has looked solid against the dregs of the schedule - and I still don’t trust USC’s defense against any passing game with a pulse (read: not UM). The late start should negate the effect of the cross-country trip for USC- who put up nearly 500 yards the last time they traveled this far in a close loss to the Illini. Still, they couldn’t stop Altmeyer when they had to, and I expect a similar situation to arise here. Irish pull one out late. USC: 27—ND: 31

Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: I don't know if Tennessee is able to turn the corner after the ugly gag vs. the Dawgs, but the rest of their resume is blah.  Bama looks to be evolving into their final form.  Vandy threw some punches last week, but the Tide and Ty Simpson methodically sat on their heads and took control.  I feel like this is another '3rd Saturday in Oct' in which Tennessee is taught a lesson by the big elephant in town.  Tenn: 13--Bama: 27
Hoying: Like any of the games above, I could see this one playing out in about a thousand different ways. But I take a look at the visiting team and see that they're giving up almost 30 points a game. You could say that's understandable when teams like Georgia come to town, but Syracuse? Mississippi State? It's true that the Vols' defensive struggles have mostly been against the ground game (which Bama has still failed to get going) but Tennessee isn't going to reach anywhere near last season's lofty heights playing defense like this. Tide roll to their fourth straight ranked win. UT: 24--Bama: 31

Schweinfurth: Tennessee is not the same team Ohio State whipped last year. Bama is better than last year. Are they world beaters? No, but they should win a tight one. UT: 28--Bama: 31
Seeberg: Well, Bama is alive and well after all. That week 1 crap show is looking more and more like an aberration by the week and Ty Simpson is near the top of an admittedly mediocre Heisman race this season (just throw the damn ball to Jeremiah). Meanwhile, the Vols’ best win is a close loss to Georgia. Look for Bama to turn Aguilar over a couple times and pull away late. UT: 20—Bama: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: I never thought I'd see the day in which the Buckeyes would go into Camp Randall as a FOUR SCORE FAVORITE.  Honestly, that probably isn't enough.  The Badgers are just embarrassingly bad.  Fickell is a dead man walking and the Buckeyes will likely end the suffering (at least the Badgers don't still have to go to Eugene AND to Bloomington AND play the Illini).  It's going to get much much worse for the Badger faithful before it gets better.  Another road game for the Buckeyes so expect Day to try to take the air out of the ball, run repeatedly, shorten the game, and get the dub.  The Bullets will shut down any hopes the Badgers have early while we get a steady dose of Jackson (and Donaldson...and Peoples) as well as a token Jeremiah tuddy to keep the Heisman talk alive.  Get in, get the dub, stay healthy, Go Bucks. (Sorry Fick...it's just business)  OSU: 38--UW: 6
Hoying: It's easy to forget for those of us who remember tough, hard-nosed, power running Wisconsin football teams challenging for Big Ten Championships year in and year out, but Wisconsin was kind of awful for decades before Barry Alvarez took over. And, unfortunately for them, it looks like the Badgers are heading right back in that direction. UW hadn't had back-to-back seasons failing to hit 8 wins since Alvarez's first three years on the job, but Fick hasn't hit that total in either of his first two seasons, and it doesn't look like it'll happen this year, either. Yeah, it's tough to win when you can't keep your QB in playable condition for more than a game at a time, but it's not like anything else has been going right for the Badgers, either. That's a recipe for disaster against an Ohio State team that's been methodically strangling every team they've come across in their title defense tour. Turnovers and short fields masked a number of issues for the Buckeyes last week (the run blocking was just awful and the defense was caught off guard more than a few times), and the coaching staff will be looking to rectify these problems with some live reps against a real (so to speak) opponent heading into the bye week before the stretch run. This one doesn't stay close absent a colossal meltdown by the visitors. Time to start thinking about what Penn State will be able to salvage and present to the Bucks in two weeks. OSU: 31--UW: 0

Schweinfurth: I actually expect this to be lower scoring just due to the weather. Yes, Jeremiah will get his touches. He has to, but with rain in the forecast this one should be on Bo Jackson and company. Let the big boys up front eat. I don't see Wisconsin getting much on this defense either. All and all, this one should be a pretty tidy win for the Bucks. OSU: 28--UW: 3
Seeberg: Wisconsin is averaging the least amount of points in the conference and OSU gives up the least. If they don’t score on their scripted drive this may be another shutout unless Day calls off the dogs because it’s Fickell (a la Freeman in the natty last year). Regardless, it should be an stress-free afternoon facing off against our future D-line coach up in Madison. A chance of showers may make things a little bumpy offensively, but this one should not be in any doubt. It would be nice to know how healthy Bo Jackson is since the Badgers do still stop the run relatively well. Day lamenting that young guys aren’t getting opportunities is amusing since he’s intentionally slowing pace of play to a crawl. But if that keeps everyone healthy it won’t matter much- this season at least. Regardless, easy trips to Madison were few and far between for a couple decades. Enjoy this lack of stress-inducing drama Buckeye Nation. OSU: 31—UW: 6

Upset Special

Draper: Rutgers over Oregon
Hoying: Kentucky over Texas
Schweinfurth: Ok St over Cincinnati
Seeberg: UNLV over Boise State 

Week 7: The Playoff Gatekeeper

Standings:

1.) Hoying 19-5 (1-5 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 18-6 (0-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (2-4 upset)
3.) Draper 16-8 (1-5 upset)

Some of us at Let's Go Bucks! have expressed concern about the effects of Playoff expansion on the importance of the regular season. The effect has been undeniable, though it has now twice allowed the Buckeyes to win national championships despite suffering losses to terrible opponents that would have otherwise knocked them out of title contention. Well, here we are in Week 7, and for several of the nation's top teams, a win this week would all but guarantee them a Playoff berth absent a string of bizarre upsets down the stretch. 

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Bama seems to be getting their sea-legs and taking back the throne.  Yeah, the score of the Vandy game made it look like a bigger blowout than it was, but they fought through the beginning onslaught and grabbed control in the second half (and Vandy is actually good).  I honestly know very little to nothing about the Tigers other than Beau Pribula is the QB (and PSU is lamenting his departure). Ty Simpson could very easily grab control of a very fractured Heisman race with a big Tide win, but I don't think this is a blowout.  Mizzou is a decent team and it's tough to go into Columbia.  Regardless, the Tide feels somewhat inevitable once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.  Bama: 30--Mizz: 20
Hoying: Is it possible to win a game by multiple scores and still feel gross afterwards? The Tide ran off 23 straight points after Vanderbilt went up 14-7 almost (but not quite) right before half, but it was still kind of a troubling win for Alabama. Life hasn't exactly been easy for Missouri either, having to weather a big first quarter from Kansas and rally in the 4th quarter against South Carolina, both at home. Bama can't run the ball worth a lick but that won't really matter against the Tigers, as both the Jayhawks and the Gamecocks buttered their bread through the air against Missouri, and Tide QB Ty Simpson is making a midseason push for the Heisman (so long as voters continue to ignore anyone in Scarlet and Gray). Bama's defense has been a little suspect in the red zone and on late downs, but I still don't think the Tigers will be able to score enough to keep up with them. Bama: 27--Mizz: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama slayed the Vandy beast. Seriously, that was a thing last year. Is that enough to halt the upstart Tigers? Maybe. Mizzou is one of those teams I will pick against until the prove me otherwise. Bama wins...close. Bama: 21--Mizz: 20
Seeberg: Bama’s not-as-hard-as-SEC-homers-want-you-to-believe-but-still-tough schedule continues on the road this time. Vandy wasn’t last year’s version, and this Bama team isn’t last years either, but in a better way. Mizzou has played nobody but handled their business, led by the nation’s leading rusher in Ahmad Hardy. Bama would rather air it out with Ty and Ryan Williams (despite a ton of drops). Other than the Oklahoma game on the Tide’s schedule I think they win out, but this is a tricky matchup. Hey, at least one Penn State QB is playing well. Mizzou grinds the clock and gets the big time W. Bama: 20—Mizz: 24

Indiana Hoosiers @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I have no idea what to think here.  I have doubted IU for the entire Cignetti era and he keeps making me look stupid (except in the Shoe--Google it).  I've also heard about the absolute monster that Lanning has built with the Ducks...but I doubt that as well.  The huge win at the PSU White Out has certainly lost its luster after hapless UCLA with a new coaching staff didn't need 2OT to embarrass Franklin and Co.  I do think the Ducks are solid, and that Moore is able to orchestrate the offense well...but MENDOZA has the Hoosiers clicking at a super high level (Iowa outstanding).  What's missed here is that the IU defense has some players on it as well (as seen in their demolishing of Illinois).  All this leads to a very boring conclusion: teams just don't go into Eugene and win big games (see 2024 OSU).  The environment is going to be nuts which will be the difference in a (surprisingly) low scoring Duck victory.  Ind: 20--Oregon: 27 (AFLAC trivia answer before the game: Who was the last B1G Team to beat Oregon in Eugene? Answer: Indiana)
Hoying: Depending on how the Indiana - Penn State game plays out, this could, no joke, be the biggest regular season game of the year. Indiana hasn't lost a step from their head-turning breakout season last year, running up 63 on Illinois before surviving the sandwich of all sandwich games last week at the place where promising seasons go to die, Kinnick Stadium. Win this one, and suddenly nobody cares that you played three wet sacks of paint during the nonconference slate: you get five more wet sacks of Big Ten paint and Penn State, and 11-1 almost assuredly gets you back to the Playoff. Of course, their opponent is no slouch either. The Ducks are also keeping pace with last year's maiden voyage through the Big Ten, and now the script brings another contender from the Eastern Time Zone to Autzen for a monster midseason matchup. I do not think that 2025 Indiana is as good as 2024 Ohio State was (probably no team except for 2025 Ohio State is), but if you remember the knife's edge that last year's game turned on, you'd be forgiven for thinking the Hoosiers have a real live chance to win this one and seize control of the Big Ten. And the advanced stats would agree; the closest that either of these teams has to a weakness is a slight softness in Oregon's run defense. That's bad news against an Indiana team that put up 312 on the ground against the Illini (hello, Bo Jackson), but the Hoosiers only averaged 2.7 yards per carry against upset-minded Iowa. Ultimately, I think this one comes down to the environment. Strange things have happened when Big Ten teams have had to cross multiple time zones this season, with Ohio State strangling Washington and Oregon escaping Penn State being the outliers. The x-factor of travel and the Autzen environment do just enough to put the Ducks ahead and on pace for another possible 12-0 season. Ind: 31--Ore: 32
Schweinfurth: I guess we finally get to figure out if these teams are for real. I still have questions about Indiana, but they have passed all of their tests to this point. Oregon has looked the part. They haven't missed a beat after losing Gabriel to the *checks notes* Browns...Anyway. I see this as a shoot out. I have questions about the Hoosier defense, and I think Oregon's D was bailed out by the Franklin/Allar tandem. Take the west cost team at home on these. IU: 38--Ore: 42
Seeberg: A year and a half into Cignetti’s IU program and his only two losses are still to the champs and runners up last year. He might get them to the playoff again before he bolts for Penn State or Florida. Regardless, a trip out to Eugene is always tough, especially when your star WR gets a bogus PI call late in the 4th. Moore and Mendoza can spin it and IU has legit talent: 5 of the top 125 prospects in next year’s draft according to a comprehensive list I saw earlier this week. That same list showed EIGHT Ducks in the top 150. IU is good, not just smoke and mirrors, but it’s just not enough to win at Austen. Ducks late. IU: 27—Ore: 37

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Texas is in trouble, folks.  It's not just the losses, but how they have looked.  I've watched a few Longhorn games and they simply aren't a sound consistent team.  Missed assignments, dropped passes, Arch looking like he needs his Warby Parker glasses to see his receivers....this list goes on.  However, this is a rivalry to 'throw out the record books'.  For another wildcard, John Mateer is planning on returning to lead the Sooner offense after hand surgery when this seemed a total pipe dream a few weeks ago.  Of all the units on the field, the Sooner defense is legit.  Texas has actually faced 2 really good defenses this year....and lost to both.  The question remains about Mateer's hand and the ability of the Longhorn defense to wreak havoc.  I would not be surprised if Texas comes out and rights the ship here, but the spiral is real.  This is the death knell if they can't pull it off, and a last seond FG seals their fate.  OU: 20--UT: 17
Hoying: So Texas is unranked 6 weeks after starting the season at #1. Big deal, week 7 rankings mean about as much as the preseason variety. What's more important is that Texas is running out of opportunities to impress the Playoff Committee, although with their schedule there's a chance they'll get a crack at 4 teams in or around the top 5 before the regular season is out. The Sooners, meanwhile, are riding high and might even get their QB John Mateer back for the Red River Shootout. Mateer may be a bit overrated (was he really any better than Jackson Arnold the day the Sooners beat Auburn?) but nowhere near the flop that Arch Manning has produced through his first 5 games. And you can't even point to the Texas defense saving the day in this one; Texas gave up 29 points to DJ Lagway after Oklahoma put Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines in a blender a few weeks ago. I don't see a reason for Oklahoma not to win this one walking away. OU: 27--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Can we officially say Arch was crowned too soon? I think so. Oklahoma looks to be a very good team. More so than the Longhorns. This is the Red River Shootout, so expect the unexpected. Except Oklahoma wins. Maybe Arch actually looks competent? That would be unexpected. OU: 35--UT: 27
Seeberg: Is Mateer playing? Has Arch been replaced by a cyborg bent on the destruction of Texas? To answer both:  Of course not…but maybe? Texas can’t really block for Arch who now sidearms every other throw. Colin Simmons has 0 sacks against P4 opponents and, not coincidentally, the Longhorns have 0 wins against said competition. OU, meanwhile, lists Mateer as probable?? I’ll believe it when I see it. Either way, they are trotting out the #2 defense in America (behind only your Silver Bullets). These factors all lead me to believe this so-called shootout will look more akin to Tressel-ball. OU has the talent to thwart Arch and Co like the Bucks did, and if Mateer does get healthy they are undoubtedly the SEC’s best chance at reclaiming the throne. OU: 20—UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: There are so many teams I feel like I can't get a grip on this year.  USC has been Jekyll and Hyde with explosive offense...until the first 3 quarters vs Illinois (the comeback was real until their defense pooped the bed).  TTUN is even more confusing with a freshman phenom that is solid in the run game but looks clueless in the passing game.  The bread and butter for the Wolverines is Justice Haynes and the running game, but this defense in SoCal is serviceable (I won't say 'good').  Makai Lemon is an explosive receiver for the Trojans that should keep a good (not great) UM defense guessing.  Michigan had to fight at home to take down the Badgers who simply are not good. If SC can limit the explosive running plays and stay on schedule offensively, they will grab control.  So long a Riley stays out of his own way, Maiava gets a nice ranked win in the B1G and sends the Wolverines home crying.  UM: 20--USC: 23
Hoying: Indiana - Oregon may be the biggest game of the week, but this one may be the most intriguing. For four weeks, USC looked like they might have the pieces in place to make a deep run in the Playoff, and then the defense didn't get off the bus against Illinois. It's not like the Trojans were particularly stifling before their ill-fated trip to Champaign, and they did still put up 32 points to briefly take the lead late, but suddenly this is starting to look like the same old USC, with a brilliant offense being sabotaged by another unreliable defense. At least they can't blame Alex Grinch this time. That being said, this game is in LA, and Bryce Underwood has been doing his best Davis Warren impression in Michigan's road games this year, leading to an ugly loss to Oklahoma and a close win against Nebraska. I expect this game to look very much like last year's version, with Michigan bashing their heads against the wall again and again and USC staying in control only to the extent they decide not to do something idiotic. I honestly have no idea if Lincoln Riley has the self restraint needed not to throw this one away. But there'll be no friendly Michigan crowd coming to the rescue with their horrendous rendition of a basement dumpster-tier pop song. Trojans keep their Playoff hopes alive until the 1-2 punch of Notre Dame and Oregon finish them off for good. USC: 27--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I can't read either of these teams. USC had their chance against Illinois, but pooped themselves pretty spectacularly. I don't know what to think of the Wolverines. They are getting better, but I still have questions. West coast team man. USC: 21--UM: 17
Seeberg: Man I hate picking games like this…and not just because the cheaters and best are involved. It’s classic strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. The Trojans had 490 yards of offense against the soon-to-be-mentioned Illini…yet still lost because they gave up over 500 yards. On offense, I don’t trust UM’s so-called WRs to do much, but Justice Haynes is for real and should have a big day. Can Maiava and Lemon make enough plays for USC to stay in it? Sure. Win it? I sure hope so, but sadly this feels a lot like last year’s game: a game you think UM should lose, but USC finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bleh. UM: 23—USC: 20

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: The Buckeyes had a tall mountain to climb this offseason after losing an entire team to the NFL last year, but it hasn't made the difference that exodus traditionally produces.  Sayin has been efficient, the receivers remain elite, the running game is emerging under Bo Jackson, and the defense remains a force.  Going on the road to Illinois was circled (along with the trip to Seattle) as the 2 potential trap games.  Washington faced the wrath of this defense and I expect more in Champaign.  Day likes to keep things close to the vest in games like this.  Don't be dumb, let the talent shine, leave with a victory.  While I don't expect fireworks on offense, the Illini showed some real question marks in their (lack of) tackling, especially vs. IU. Altmyer is a strong senior QB but we don't know which version will appear.  If he's on (like vs. SC), the defense will have to step up to the plate.  If he's off (like IU),...uh oh.  I think he'll be in the middle, but Feagin will have nightmares about Downs (Heisman talk please?), Styles, and Reese.  I was nervous about this game until I saw how well the young Buckeyes weathered the storm in Seattle.  Road games are never easy, but in Bo we trust.  OSU: 37--Ill: 10
Hoying: I have been reserving judgment on the 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes. Outside of the season opener, which was very unusual for several reasons, the Buckeyes haven't been sufficiently tested for me to award them the crown or the jester's cap. After all, the 2019 Ohio State Buckeyes might have been the greatest team in program history, and after obliterating some good-to-great teams along the way, they failed to rise to the occasion against the first elite team they faced. Illinois is not an elite team. They're a good, possibly very good team, certainly better than the -53 differential they put up against the Hoosiers a couple of weeks ago. But the problem is, they don't have any strengths to exploit. Oh, Luke Altmyer has done some damage through the air this season? Take a look at what Ohio State just did to Demond Williams and Drake Lindsey, both pretty decent QBs. The Illini defense is a horror show; they haven't given up 63 points since the Bloomington Beatdown but they did surrender 32 and 27 points in wins against USC and Purdue. Ohio State has six losses in the prior three seasons: two were games where the Buckeye offense was flummoxed against elite D-line play for 60 minutes straight, and the other four were against teams who spent time during the season ranked #1 or #2. Illinois is not going to be ranked in the top two this year. This is not a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung. I still don't know how good this team is, but if they can get out of Champaign with another single-digit performance by the Silver Bullets, the next six games become Day's personal playtime to get whatever pieces he wants in place before another Playoff run. Bucks win big, again. OSU: 37--Ill: 10

Schweinfurth: Illinois has looked okay so far, except for that blowout against...Indiana. This game IS Illinois' season at this point. Champaign has always been rough on the Bucks. All that wind. Every. Year. Day has this offense building towards something special again. I don't know if Bert has the answers to stop this offense. The fake to Smith and bomb to Tate showed how hard it is to stop the Bucks offense. The Silver Bullets look the part. They are so well coached and rally to the ball so quick. This should be over by the start of the fourth quarter, but we have seen stranger things. OSU: 35--Ill: 9
Seeberg: Did you know the last 5 ranked meetings between these 2 have all been won by Illinois? Hard to remember because it’s been 25 years since the first of those 5 took place but still crazy. That’s about the only stat in the Illini’s favor in this one. For those unaware, they rank 119th in pass defense (a mere 115 spots behind OSU), and Day just started to unleash Julian last week. Even Purdue managed 27 points against them last week. I do think this is the week that someone FINALLY scores double digits against us, with a TD likely in garbage time or on a scripted drive that somebody finally manages to pay off. Either way, start fast to get the home crowd subdued, stick it to Bert with a couple of bombs to JJ, and get out of there. OSU: 38—Ill: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over A&M
Hoying: Kansas over Texas Tech
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Tennessee
Seeberg: NW over Penn State (jk…can you imagine though??) UCF over Cincinnati 

Week 6: Silver Bullets and Golden Gophers

Standings:

1.) Hoying 15-5 (1-4 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (0-5 upset)
3.) Draper 13-7 (1-4 upset)
4.) Seeberg 12-8 (2-3 upset)

Today we take a tour across the college football landscape as pivotal matchups in each of the Power 4 conferences (OK, one maybe not so much) will cement a few more key pieces into the Playoff puzzle

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: An epic showdown in Tuscaloosa as David leaves the friendly confines of Nashville to confront Goliath.  If we don't remember Diego Pavia leading the Commodores to a monumental upset last year, I'm SURE that ESPN won't let you forget it during gameday.  What they'll also say is that Vandy might actually be...good? While this may be the case, the Dores are going up against a fully armed and operational battle station.  Bama was shockingly mid last year (for them), but they've taken control ever since the loss to FSU.  I don't see Vandy keeping this one close.  The Tide will seek revenge and the always collect their debts.  Ty Simpson and Co. win big.  Vandy: 17--Bama: 40
Hoying: Congratulations to the Dores on their first 5-0 start since 2008, coming off of their first winning season since James Franklin (yes, that James Franklin) was calling the shots. Fun fact about Vanderbilt: after the whirlwind tours that Indiana and Iowa State took last season, Vandy is the only Power 4 team to never have a double-digit win season. And it’s not going to get any easier this year, with a brutal 6 road games on the schedule. Of course, Vanderbilt already handled two of those (VT and South Carolina) with aplomb, but the Tide are a bit of a step up in difficulty, and they are angry. I don’t care how passably good Vanderbilt was last season; losing to them as Alabama is like losing to Minnesota as Ohio State: it just isn’t done (spoilers). The thing is, this year’s Vanderbilt team is actually pretty good, with one of the more potent offenses in the country helmed by Heisman candidate (!) Diego Pavia. And unlike Bama’s woefully one-dimensional offense, the Dores can actually run the ball, too. That being said, the Tide couldn’t run a lick against Georgia and it didn’t slow them down any, as they lit the Dawgs up through the air and stymied Gunner Stockton all game in return. Vanderbilt is good enough to do this again, not from an upset alert perspective but strength-on-strength. I just think the talent in the Alabama passing game will be a bit too much for Vandy to overcome. You can still take one more loss and get to 10 wins, Dores. Vandy: 20--Bama: 27
Schweinfurth: Vandy is a great story to this point and it would be funny to see Diego Pavia catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row. I don't see that happening. The Tide are out for revenge. Vandy: 28--Bama: 38
Seeberg: In 2025 this is a competitive game. Insanity. Vandy may have caught a down Tide squad last year, but there’s no surprises this time around. Bama isn’t letting Diego continue to yap nonsense. Roll Tide. Vandy: 20–Bama: 34

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Draper: Houston is certainly sneaking around the chicken coop with that Holgo offense, but the schedule leaves much to the imagination.  The Red Raiders have the win over Utah which is solid as a road win (although the score is a bit more lopsided than what happened.  Regardless, I have more faith in a highly paid and talented roster from Lubbock over the recent Big12 additions.  Tech defense shined against Utah in a tough road environment.  Expect more of the same here.  TT: 30--UH: 17
Hoying: Remember what I said a couple weeks ago about fast starts for the Red Raiders? Yeah, they only went up 10-0 on Utah to start that game but they still never trailed. In fact, TTU is one of three teams this season that hasn’t trailed at all (stupid failed 4th-and-1 against Washington). Houston, meanwhile, is putting up a measly 31 points per game against world-beaters like Stephen F. Austin, Rice, and Oregon State. Yeah, the Cougs have been playing decent defense against those teams but so could you and I. Stick with the hot hand. TTU: 34—Hou: 17
Schweinfurth: I'll go back to what I said last week. Texas Tech's D is legit. That should be enough to slow the Cougs down. TT: 35--UH: 21
Seeberg: I expect the Cougar crowd to be up for this one and that should keep things competitive for a half or so, but TTU’s suddenly pricy roster should be stocked enough to pull away from a pesky Houston team. This isn’t basketball after all. TT: 38—UH: 17

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate.  The Noles look to rebound after a clunker in Charlottesville against a decent to good UVA team.  This game provides the path to redemption.  Miami has been fantastic all year, but this FSU team will be the first offense it's faced (yes, yes, Notre Dame is looking good, but that was a freshman QB's first start).  Castellanos should be able to get loose and make the ball hawking Canes defense feel some pain after seeing what Carr did on the ground.  Honestly, this FSU team appears to be very Jekyll and Hyde.  Here's hoping we get the good one here.  Let's not forget this is the Canes first game outside of Hard Rock this season.  Beck shouldn't be bothered by the road noise, but it will be difficult for the rest of the team.  You know I'm not picking them.  FMFFM. UM: 27--FSU:34
Hoying: Well, this was ALMOST as exciting as the heavyweight battles in the 80’s and 90’s (nice faceplant, FSU), but it still has serious implications for the ACC and Playoff races. Tommy Castellanos has been a nice novelty act for the Noles (Bama had NO idea what to do with him), but unfortunately he’s not facing the 2024 Miami defense. This year’s team has brought the swagger back to south Florida, and while no one will be mistaking them for the Silver Bullets anytime soon, they’re playing well enough to challenge for the national title when paired with the dangerous Miami offense. Carson Beck isn’t quite the gunslinger that Cam Ward was, but again, the pieces are all in place to make a deep push in the Playoff. This might be the last major obstacle that the Canes face until the ACC Championship, and if Florida State loses here to start 0-2 in conference, you can kiss any hope of a rematch goodbye. The wheels aren’t falling off in Tallahassee, but a return to the Playoff might need to wait another year. UM: 31—FSU: 26
Schweinfurth: Sorry Chief, Miami is hot right now. I'm just not sure if the Noles can hang. UM: 42--FSU: 38
Seeberg: The sunshine state is resurgent! (Gators notwithstanding). FSU’s win looks better over Bama each week, regardless of how ESECPN tries to spin it. The U, meanwhile, look like the closest thing to a challenger that Oregon and OSU have in the country. Beck is a couple notches above serviceable again, and the Hurricanes D-line sets the table for their back 7. Neither team has elite playmakers on offense, so I’m going with the better defense in this game. Sorry Chief. UM: 27— FSU: 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: There's always a lot of energy on the Gopher sideline with Coach Fleck, but I don't think his offense is going to have much pep in their step going up against the Bullets at night in the Shoe. The Gophers best win is...checks notes... over Rutgers at home....by 3.  This could get ugly quick.  Minnesota isn't Grambling, but they're a far cry from Texas (or even Washington). I think the Ohio game is a nice comp, but I think Day will have the Buckeyes playing a little more aggressively on offense.  Sayin has gone on the road and brought home a dub so it's time to try different techniques.  While I'd love a game that is over by halftime (I miss last year's Rose Bowl), the Buckeyes seem to be playing with their food while rope-a-doping the competition.  This is the game where we work some downfield shots and show that Tate is a great receiver as well.  Another ho-hum victory on Homecoming.  UM: 10 (booooooo double digits)--OSU: 48 
Hoying: What am I supposed to say at this point? The Buckeye defense looks incredible again, and they’re about to lay the hammer against another hopelessly outmatched opponent. I suppose weeks like this are when Day gets to tinker and plant some seeds that will hopefully bear fruit later this season while he otherwise puts the other team to sleep with 50 offensive plays or so. What I would like to see is whether this team can get a yard when they absolutely need it. Short yardage situations were the Buckeyes’ Achilles heel from 2021-23 (remember that awful Egbuka end around that just about lost the Notre Dame game?) but Chip Kelly seemed to have turned a corner last season. Then CJ Donaldson got stonewalled on 4th and 1 from the Washington 5 and the Buckeyes ended up trailing for the first time all season. I’m not saying we have to prove what a tough hard-nosed running team we are (throwing the ball to CJ worked just fine at the end of the game), but the red zone failures are going to cost us at some point if we find ourselves in a game like last year’s Cotton Bowl (or, you know, the other one). It’s not going to make a difference against Minnesota, but let’s see some progress in that department. Then again, if we don’t face a third and short all day, that’s fine too. OSU: 45—Minn: 3
Schweinfurth: The Silver Bullets look legit. Minnesota's QB already has issues moving the ball and now they have to see this monster. It's Homecoming, so it makes sense we get a blowout. OSU: 48--Minn: 6
Seeberg: Ah yes, the night game we all wanted(?) The Gophers come calling to a subdued OSU offense. Get used to it people, Day has his formula for these way-too-long-but-rich-people-needed-even-more-money college football seasons. Slow the pace, limit the reps to keep everyone healthy, then let it rip come December. Worked last year, who’s to argue? I do wish some young guys on both sides of the ball could get a few extra reps, but I get not messing with success. Might not be a flashy “bottom line” score, but Ws are always welcome. Fleck looked to have his best team up there since he took over…until they got beat by a true freshman QB leading ACC power Cal (weird to even type that). Keep everyone healthy, keep the D rolling, and onto the next. Minn: 10—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Virginia over Louisville
Hoying: Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Georgia
Seeberg: North Carolina over Clemson