Standings:
1.) Draper 51-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 50-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 49-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 46-23 (1-13 upset)
You wanted championship access for the little guy? You wanted Cinderella stories of the underdog snakebiting a top dog on the way to the top? Then you came to the wrong place; in all the storied 11-year history of the College Football Playoff, there haven't been a more blue-blooded final four than you'll see this year. Enjoy the combined wisdom of the Let's Go Bucks! crew before you sit glued to your TV screen like Stu Pickles.
THURSDAY, JANUARY 9
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: As the semis were set, I was pretty confident in my picks for the title, but continuing to look at the Orange Bowl, I've become more conflicted. Let me be clear: I don't think either of these teams are near the level of Ohio State or Oregon (or maybe Texas). Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams entering the playoff and have continued their pace, but Penn State has looked good as well. The issue was the competition. Notre Dame dumped an overrated IU team (but the final score was closer than expected) and outclassed a depleted UGA team by killing it in the middle 8 with turnovers and special teams. Penn State easily dispatched SMU and played a solid game against Boise State, but does anyone really care? This game is similar to the Sugar Bowl in which I expect a low scoring ugly slugfest. Both defenses are stout with questionable offenses. Love is banged up for the Irish, but Abdul Carter being a question mark evens the score. Both QB's are fine, but nothing special. After all is said and done, I going to stick with my initial instinct with the Irish (although I'm getting little voices telling me to be careful). James Franklin always wins when favored and always loses when an underdog (last win as an underdog was 2021 and before that was 2016 vs OSU). I guess it's a foregone conclusion... Here come the Irish. ND: 20--PSU:17
Hoying: As we all predicted preseason, Notre Dame and Penn State are on the doorstep of a national championship appearance. And they’re doing it with some of the poorest QB play in the Playoff (Will Howard haters at FOX Sports notwithstanding). Fortunately, each team would rather run the ball than throw, Penn State because they have no receivers and Notre Dame because…er…their quarterback can’t throw. Riley Leonard can run though, and he put up a tidy 80 yards to pace the Irish against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Whom did Penn State play in the quarterfinals again? Oh, right, nobody, just like the nobody they played in the first round. Now that could work to their advantage, as they haven’t had to give any of their playoff prep away in snoozers against SMU and Boise State (no, the Lions were never going to lose that game). But I still don’t have a great deal of faith in James Franklin. Beating SMU and Boise isn’t beating the allegations, as the only two games Frames played this year on the level of Notre Dame were the two that Penn State lost. One because they couldn’t move the ball (Ohio State), and the other because they couldn’t stop their opponent (Oregon). Expect this game to look a lot more like the former than the latter, as ND continues to pitch gem after gem on defense (except against USC, but whoopsie, guess who also gave up a million points to the Trojans). Drew Allar simply doesn’t have it in him or the support around him to put the team on his shoulders with the game on the line, and when all else fails, sit back and wait for James Franklin to do something stupid. At least once this Thursday, expect the Hill Kitties to make those Georgia idiots who jumped offsides on Notre Dame’s fake punt look like the finest football minds this side of Let’s Go Bucks! ND: 24—PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This game is two teams who play great defense, and two teams who play miserable offense. Both teams have good running backs and questionable quarterbacks. Penn State at least has Tyler Warren. Coaching advantage has to go to Notre Dame because James Franklin pees his pants in big games. **whispers** This is a big game. This feels like a 60 minute rock fight. Notre Dame lives off of turnovers. They turned Georgia over to death in the Sugar Bowl. I expect more of the same. Irish win. ND: 17--PSU: 14
Seeberg: The year is 2019. You're at Vegas and a hot streak at the blackjack table left you itching to put a few big chips on a college football bet. Then you see a futures bet that makes you laugh out loud: James Franklin wins two or more playoff games in his career at Penn State. +50000. You chuckle again. Man, this is how Vegas makes their money eh? I have no idea if that was a real bet on the board back then, but it sure sounds about right. Somehow, Penn State managed to win TWO playoff games. That said, both teams were outside the top 10 so, really, given their cupcake draw, it's not particularly surprising. Things get markedly more difficult for Franklin when he plays a top 5 opponent, and Notre Dame fits that bill. To me, Notre Dame feels like Ohio State lite. Very good but not great defense and, at least in the regular season, very good but not great offense. Ohio State, however, has risen almost exponentially on offense and stayed elite on D, and Notre Dame still looks like, well, Notre Dame. Very good defense, and just enough points to make it hard for teams to hang for four quarters. Meanwhile, Penn State was spotted 10 points at home against the Buckeyes this year and managed a whopping 1 FG the rest of the way. Scoring 6 offensive points against the best defense you saw all year is a pretty poor omen (though they inexplicably dropped 37 on Oregon- which is when the Ducks' alarm bells should've sounded before playing the scarlet and gray again). Both teams will struggle to score, which is a product of ND's middling offense and PSU's awful offensive coaching. It feels like a very similar game to the OSU/PSU tilt in Happy Valley this year, so why not the same score. Notre Dame advances to the title game. ND: 20--PSU: 13
Hoying: As we all predicted preseason, Notre Dame and Penn State are on the doorstep of a national championship appearance. And they’re doing it with some of the poorest QB play in the Playoff (Will Howard haters at FOX Sports notwithstanding). Fortunately, each team would rather run the ball than throw, Penn State because they have no receivers and Notre Dame because…er…their quarterback can’t throw. Riley Leonard can run though, and he put up a tidy 80 yards to pace the Irish against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Whom did Penn State play in the quarterfinals again? Oh, right, nobody, just like the nobody they played in the first round. Now that could work to their advantage, as they haven’t had to give any of their playoff prep away in snoozers against SMU and Boise State (no, the Lions were never going to lose that game). But I still don’t have a great deal of faith in James Franklin. Beating SMU and Boise isn’t beating the allegations, as the only two games Frames played this year on the level of Notre Dame were the two that Penn State lost. One because they couldn’t move the ball (Ohio State), and the other because they couldn’t stop their opponent (Oregon). Expect this game to look a lot more like the former than the latter, as ND continues to pitch gem after gem on defense (except against USC, but whoopsie, guess who also gave up a million points to the Trojans). Drew Allar simply doesn’t have it in him or the support around him to put the team on his shoulders with the game on the line, and when all else fails, sit back and wait for James Franklin to do something stupid. At least once this Thursday, expect the Hill Kitties to make those Georgia idiots who jumped offsides on Notre Dame’s fake punt look like the finest football minds this side of Let’s Go Bucks! ND: 24—PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This game is two teams who play great defense, and two teams who play miserable offense. Both teams have good running backs and questionable quarterbacks. Penn State at least has Tyler Warren. Coaching advantage has to go to Notre Dame because James Franklin pees his pants in big games. **whispers** This is a big game. This feels like a 60 minute rock fight. Notre Dame lives off of turnovers. They turned Georgia over to death in the Sugar Bowl. I expect more of the same. Irish win. ND: 17--PSU: 14
Seeberg: The year is 2019. You're at Vegas and a hot streak at the blackjack table left you itching to put a few big chips on a college football bet. Then you see a futures bet that makes you laugh out loud: James Franklin wins two or more playoff games in his career at Penn State. +50000. You chuckle again. Man, this is how Vegas makes their money eh? I have no idea if that was a real bet on the board back then, but it sure sounds about right. Somehow, Penn State managed to win TWO playoff games. That said, both teams were outside the top 10 so, really, given their cupcake draw, it's not particularly surprising. Things get markedly more difficult for Franklin when he plays a top 5 opponent, and Notre Dame fits that bill. To me, Notre Dame feels like Ohio State lite. Very good but not great defense and, at least in the regular season, very good but not great offense. Ohio State, however, has risen almost exponentially on offense and stayed elite on D, and Notre Dame still looks like, well, Notre Dame. Very good defense, and just enough points to make it hard for teams to hang for four quarters. Meanwhile, Penn State was spotted 10 points at home against the Buckeyes this year and managed a whopping 1 FG the rest of the way. Scoring 6 offensive points against the best defense you saw all year is a pretty poor omen (though they inexplicably dropped 37 on Oregon- which is when the Ducks' alarm bells should've sounded before playing the scarlet and gray again). Both teams will struggle to score, which is a product of ND's middling offense and PSU's awful offensive coaching. It feels like a very similar game to the OSU/PSU tilt in Happy Valley this year, so why not the same score. Notre Dame advances to the title game. ND: 20--PSU: 13
FRIDAY, JANUARY 10
Cotton Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns
Draper: Another massive match for 2 teams that have been in the top 5 all season. The Buckeyes are playing at a clip that the world hasn't seen in a long time. If they continue this dominance, the CFP is over as no one is touching this squad at this level. However, Texas has the athletes and coaches to muddy the waters. Everyone is focused on the explosive Buckeye offense, but the real accolades should fall on Jim Knowles and the Silver Bullets who have been untouchable. While Jeremiah Smith is a certified cheat code, Howard is playing off the charts, Egbuka, Tate, and Scott are spreading the field, and Judkins/Henderson are providing the 1-2 punch; the defense has stifled everything since the first meeting with Oregon in October. Texas's defense will have some wrinkles for the Buckeyes as this is one of the best defenses we've faced all year, but I don't see how the Horns are going to outscore this juggernaut. The path to success for the Horns is turnovers and special teams with a little Sark magic sprinkled on top. If the Bucks play sound/turnover free football and Day/Kelly keep the defense on their heels in both the run and passing game, I just don't see the Longhorns scoring enough to match. Ewers has had moments of brilliance but also some real headscratchers. I wouldn't want to need my best game of the year against this ball-hawking defense. Downs and Simon will remove the running game so if the corners can hold up, it should be the Buckeyes headed to Atlanta. OSU: 30--UT: 13
Hoying: Is it possible for a top-five matchup against a team that was an unfavorable overtime period away from being the SEC champion to be a letdown game? The Buckeyes are fresh off of goosing the #1 team in the country, and while the advanced stats still like Texas a bit more than Oregon, it almost feels like the denouement to the 2024 season is already setting in. I’m sure that anyone in Buckeye Nation who remembers Quinn Ewers skipping town (especially Rick Ricart) doesn’t need any extra motivation, as his departure destroyed our post-CJ succession plan and made us rely on the merely very good Kyle McCord and a transfer QB. But that transfer QB has seen Texas before, and he hasn’t beaten them in 4 tries, including an overtime thriller last season. Howard has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and he’s been given the green light to throw it up to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka wherever they are on the field, single, double, or triple covered. Ryan Day has seized back control of the offense after the Michigan debacle and it’s going to be all gas no brakes from here on out. Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the horses in the secondary to make Howard pay on an errant throw, but then they’ll be faced with the problem of what to do when Quinn Ewers has the ball. The Longhorns’ scripted drives to start their two Playoff games have been works of art, but the Horns got bogged down against Arizona State until some 4th and 13 magic in overtime saved their season. If the Silver Bullet defense that suffocated Oregon shows up Friday night, Texas will struggle to get anything going. Look for some more spilling and killing, Caleb Downs roaming the middle of the field like Darth Maul waiting for Qui-Gon Jinn, and Jack Sawyer fighting off bear hug after bear hug to make Ewers’ day a living nightmare. There’s no Quan Cosby to bail you out late this time. OSU: 31—UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I feel pretty confident going into this game. The shackles have come off the offense and the defensive line is playing at an elite level. This feels like the 2014 team all over again. Big plays on offense with a suffocating defense. Jack Sawyer seems possessed. JJ Smith can't be covered. The running backs are hitting big chunk runs. The team we've seen the last two weeks is unbeatable. Seriously. The Rose Bowl could have been so much worse if Downs catches any of 3 (!) potential INTs. I don't really know what Texas tries to stop. Their only hope is to control the line of scrimmage with 4 lineman and pray that holds. Defensively, Knowles just need to keep calling the same plan and get home on Ewers. Hit him early and often. I'm sure Texas will try to go with the quick hitters to keep him upright, but Downs was all over that against Oregon. Ohio State is a pissed off team. Good luck America. OSU: 38--UT: 20
Seeberg: I am now, after two near-perfect playoff performances, 100% convinced that Ryan Day was doing his best Muhammad Ali impression all season long. Playing rope a dope. Milking the play clock, limiting the plays and the physical toll on his team. Rotating lots of guys, even defensively the second half of the year. All that just to peak at the right time and come out of the corner swinging, and right now, you can't argue with it. The horrid game against TTUN is a product of his Cooper-like unfamiliarity with it being an out-of-Midwesterner. Cooper's teams, however, also frequently laid eggs in bowl games, and this is clearly not the case with Day as he's already won 3 playoff games and a Rose Bowl. The Longhorns roll in with a great defense and an...offense? Quinn Ewers may have been a perfect-rated prospect, but he's not progressed nearly as much as most thought. Perhaps he should've stayed in Columbus? Regardless, he'll have to content with Jim Knowles' D that's calling all the right numbers. The only clear mistake in his game plan against Tennessee was using a DE, usually Tuimoluau, as a spy against their mobile QB. Simon took on those duties and was masterful, rarely letting Gabriel escape the pocket and closing like a freight train on his two sacks. Ewers is far less mobile than Gabriel or Iamaleava, so that shouldn't be a concern, meaning Knowles can either bring 5 or drop 7. Scary prospect either way. Personally I'd love to see a zone blitz where the DE drops in front of a slant route. Worked pretty well against Arkansas in "the game that didn't count because tattoos" and again in the Sugar Bowl against Bama where Steve Miller took it back to the house. Either way, even if this performance is only near-near-perfect, both sides of the ball (and even 2/2 on field goals last week woohoo!) are just clicking too well. Bucks coast to the natty. OSU: 38--UT: 23
Hoying: Is it possible for a top-five matchup against a team that was an unfavorable overtime period away from being the SEC champion to be a letdown game? The Buckeyes are fresh off of goosing the #1 team in the country, and while the advanced stats still like Texas a bit more than Oregon, it almost feels like the denouement to the 2024 season is already setting in. I’m sure that anyone in Buckeye Nation who remembers Quinn Ewers skipping town (especially Rick Ricart) doesn’t need any extra motivation, as his departure destroyed our post-CJ succession plan and made us rely on the merely very good Kyle McCord and a transfer QB. But that transfer QB has seen Texas before, and he hasn’t beaten them in 4 tries, including an overtime thriller last season. Howard has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and he’s been given the green light to throw it up to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka wherever they are on the field, single, double, or triple covered. Ryan Day has seized back control of the offense after the Michigan debacle and it’s going to be all gas no brakes from here on out. Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the horses in the secondary to make Howard pay on an errant throw, but then they’ll be faced with the problem of what to do when Quinn Ewers has the ball. The Longhorns’ scripted drives to start their two Playoff games have been works of art, but the Horns got bogged down against Arizona State until some 4th and 13 magic in overtime saved their season. If the Silver Bullet defense that suffocated Oregon shows up Friday night, Texas will struggle to get anything going. Look for some more spilling and killing, Caleb Downs roaming the middle of the field like Darth Maul waiting for Qui-Gon Jinn, and Jack Sawyer fighting off bear hug after bear hug to make Ewers’ day a living nightmare. There’s no Quan Cosby to bail you out late this time. OSU: 31—UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I feel pretty confident going into this game. The shackles have come off the offense and the defensive line is playing at an elite level. This feels like the 2014 team all over again. Big plays on offense with a suffocating defense. Jack Sawyer seems possessed. JJ Smith can't be covered. The running backs are hitting big chunk runs. The team we've seen the last two weeks is unbeatable. Seriously. The Rose Bowl could have been so much worse if Downs catches any of 3 (!) potential INTs. I don't really know what Texas tries to stop. Their only hope is to control the line of scrimmage with 4 lineman and pray that holds. Defensively, Knowles just need to keep calling the same plan and get home on Ewers. Hit him early and often. I'm sure Texas will try to go with the quick hitters to keep him upright, but Downs was all over that against Oregon. Ohio State is a pissed off team. Good luck America. OSU: 38--UT: 20
Seeberg: I am now, after two near-perfect playoff performances, 100% convinced that Ryan Day was doing his best Muhammad Ali impression all season long. Playing rope a dope. Milking the play clock, limiting the plays and the physical toll on his team. Rotating lots of guys, even defensively the second half of the year. All that just to peak at the right time and come out of the corner swinging, and right now, you can't argue with it. The horrid game against TTUN is a product of his Cooper-like unfamiliarity with it being an out-of-Midwesterner. Cooper's teams, however, also frequently laid eggs in bowl games, and this is clearly not the case with Day as he's already won 3 playoff games and a Rose Bowl. The Longhorns roll in with a great defense and an...offense? Quinn Ewers may have been a perfect-rated prospect, but he's not progressed nearly as much as most thought. Perhaps he should've stayed in Columbus? Regardless, he'll have to content with Jim Knowles' D that's calling all the right numbers. The only clear mistake in his game plan against Tennessee was using a DE, usually Tuimoluau, as a spy against their mobile QB. Simon took on those duties and was masterful, rarely letting Gabriel escape the pocket and closing like a freight train on his two sacks. Ewers is far less mobile than Gabriel or Iamaleava, so that shouldn't be a concern, meaning Knowles can either bring 5 or drop 7. Scary prospect either way. Personally I'd love to see a zone blitz where the DE drops in front of a slant route. Worked pretty well against Arkansas in "the game that didn't count because tattoos" and again in the Sugar Bowl against Bama where Steve Miller took it back to the house. Either way, even if this performance is only near-near-perfect, both sides of the ball (and even 2/2 on field goals last week woohoo!) are just clicking too well. Bucks coast to the natty. OSU: 38--UT: 23
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