Friday, December 20, 2024

Week 16: We Have Playoffs at Home

Standings:

1.) Draper 43-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 42-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 42-19 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 38-23 (1-13 upset)

After perhaps the most maddening one-year absence in the history of the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes make their triumphant return within the friendly and frozen confines of Ohio Stadium. Other teams will be shivering across the college football landscape (except Clemson, lucky you) as eight teams jockey for the four remaining spots in the quarterfinal bowl games.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20

Indiana Hoosiers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: Notre Dame enters the playoffs as, perhaps, the hottest team outside of Eugene while Indiana failed their one test on the year.  However, these teams have quite similar resumes.  Neither played a schedule with any meat, but while Notre Dame has a nice win (not great) @A&M, they also have the bad loss home vs. NIU.  Riley Leonard is managing the game well but the ground game is the hallmark for Freeman's Irish.  Indiana will go as far as Kurtis Rourke will bring them.  They're playing with house money (no matter what Cignetti says).  They should come out with nothing to lose, but the elements will work against them. The snow will make the air game a challenge which is a problem for the Crimson.  I like the Irish to ground and pound against a decent IU defense, but it won't be enough.  The Irish move on.  IU: 17--ND: 27
Hoying:
Indiana should send a nice fruit basket to whoever at the Big Ten offices set the schedules for this season. The Hoosiers played zero power conference opponents out of conference, beat one team with a winning record (7-5 Michigan), faced exactly one ranked opponent (Ohio State), got blasted, and waltzed right into a spot in the inaugural 12-team Playoff. Of course, it's not like Notre Dame faced a murderer's row either; their only opponent currently ranked is...Army...who just lost to Navy after the last rankings were released. The power of unbalanced schedules. Turning to the game at hand, Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke stands out amid a field of pretty mediocre quarterbacks in this year's Playoff. Unfortunately, that plays right into ND's hands, as they have one of the top pass defenses in college football alongside Texas and Ohio State. Speaking of Ohio State, you may remember the Silver Bullets making Rourke's life absolutely miserable. Notre Dame doesn't quite have the sack attack that the Buckeyes can provide, but they still have one of the better D-lines around. As for the Irish attack, QB Riley Leonard has been getting somewhat better as the season progresses, but Notre Dame is primarily a run-first team, with the triple threat of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Leonard himself leading the way. Indiana's defense has been solid; even Ohio State only put up 316 yards (although a punt block and punt return TD tend to limit your yardage opportunities). But I think this game is decided on the other side of the ball. If Rourke is comfortable, Indiana will be able to move the ball at will like they did for the first 9 games of their season. If Freeman can dial up some pressure, Notre Dame should be able to do just enough with their ground game to pull out a W. IU: 24--ND: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana is a great story. They came from absolutely nowhere to become Google famous. Here's the thing, they dodged Penn State and Oregon and had an 11-1 record to show for it. That one loss, yea the one top 5 team they actually played. Notre Dame has been a buzz saw since losing to NIU. Marcus Freeman has his guys playing with bad intentions. The weather may be a factor here, but the Domers are so much better on both lines. Notre Dame puts Indiana back in its place. IU: 17--ND: 24
Seeberg:  Honestly?  It's a darn shame this game didn't happen the first 4-5 weeks of the year.  IU came out of nowhere as this year's college football darling, save for a whooping in the 'Shoe.  The golden domers came out of the gates hot with a still-decent win at Texas A&M week 1, then meandered for a few weeks before finally hitting the gas pedal and playing up to their level the last half of the year.  Indiana might actually become a football state if the Hoosiers pull this one off, but I just don't see it.  The path for ND is clear to the semis, and Freeman knows he can't waste this opportunity.  ND pulls away late.  IU: 20--ND: 31

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: Another game in which the home team has everything to lose and little to gain.  SMU, like IU, is just happy to be here while the Lions know that a loss here would continue the narrative (truth?) about their lack of taking care of business in the big game.  PSU played their best game of the year in the B1G championship but still came up short.  SMU can stop the run, but PSU's explosion against Oregon came on the ground.  I think we will see a mismatch of athletes on the field and the Mustangs will have some struggles in the cold weather.  Once again, the better conditioned, bigger athletes control the line of scrimmage and prove too much for the newcomer.  It will be scary (hilarious?) early as it looks like James Franklin coughs up another big game, but the Nittany Lions pull out the win and advance.  SMU: 17--PSU: 24
Hoying:
And here we have the second Big Ten team to be gifted a Playoff spot, but Santa really went all out under the tree in Happy Valley. Astoundingly, the Lions managed to parlay a loss in the Big Ten Championship into a spot in the only CFP quadrant with zero power conference champions. These two deserve each other; the best win either one has is...SMU beating Louisville? Penn State beating Illinois? Anyway, somebody has to win this one and face the juggernaut that is Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Drew Allar has been among the nation's most efficient QBs, even with no wide receiver corps to speak of, although he couldn't really get anything going against either Ohio State or Oregon. The running game sure worked against the Ducks though, as both Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were able to top 100 yards in the B1G Championship game. SMU is no great shakes in the running game, and they've been working against much more forgiving run defenses in the ACC. I don't see any need to overthink this one. Yes, James Franklin has been known to make some...questionable decisions in Penn State's biggest games, but hosting the Playoff's gotta-include-another-team-to-fill-out-the-bracket team barely qualifies as a big game for PSU. Let's see what this brick wall run D can do against Ashton Jeanty on New Year's Eve. SMU: 20--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: I feel like SMU could shock some people here. Penn State doesn't blow anyone out. SMU has some good momentum coming off the loss in the ACC Championship game (odd to say that). Penn State has a difference maker in Tyler Warren. He can be shut down (see Caleb Downs), but SMU doesn't have that guy. The Kitties move on. SMU: 14--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  I...have a weird feeling about this one.  I just don't see these games going all chalk, someone is gonna get got.  I don't want it to be my Buckeyes, so this one is the one I have my eye on.  Penn State's proclivity to avoid testing themselves whenever possible (seriously, look at their perennial non-con schedule it's a joke) is a problem.  They acquitted themselves well offensively against Oregon but absolutely could not get off the field.  SMU is built like Oregon-lite.  On paper, Penn State is better.  The game is in Happy Valley, but James Franklin's bemused indifference may very well prove to be the difference as the Lions squander a golden road to the semis.  SMU: 24--PSU: 23

Clemson Tigers @ Texas Longhorns
Draper: Our 3rd 'happy to be here' team goes into Darrell K Royal with nothing to lose (see a theme?).  Clemson was dead to rights until pulling out a miracle appearance and win in the ACC Championship.  Dabo pulls more magic out of a hat than he has a right to, but it's tough to see it continuing here.  The Horns defense has been spectacular and I don't see Cade Klubnik taking the crown.  Can the UT QB (whoever it is) move the ball consistently? Against the Tigers, I say yes.  I don't expect this one to be terribly close without more voodoo.  Clem: 13--UT: 27
Hoying:
Charity cases, charity cases everywhere. You thought Indiana, Notre Dame, SMU, and Penn State had easy paths to the Playoff? Let's add Clemson to the list. One win over a team with a winning record (7-5 Pitt) and three losses overall bought them a ticket to the ACC Championship where they won on a 16-second drive after a game tying FG by SMU. Texas, meanwhile, managed to carve out a relatively light schedule even within the mighty SEC but couldn't get by big bad Georgia either in Austin or Atlanta. At least they got a nice soft path to the Playoff semifinals through Clemson and Arizona freaking State. The Horns have one of the top defenses in the country, probably the only one that challenges Silver Bullet supremacy. The offense is...OK; Quinn Ewers seems to have taken a step back from last season, to the point that some of the Burnt Orange faithful have been clamoring for Next Big Thing Arch Manning to take over the starting role. Clemson might actually have the edge at QB in this one as Cade Klubnik continues to improve (amazing what not having DJU can do for you). But that's where the advantages end. Klubnik isn't going to be able to move the ball against this Texas defense and while Ewers may be frustrated from time to time, the Horn attack is balanced enough to get the job done against a more questionable Clemson defense. The Tigers fall to 0-3 against the SEC this season. Clem: 10--UT: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's D line is pretty good. Texas has a pretty good defense in general. They really don't give much up. This will truly come down to which Texas offense shows up. Is it the offense that Ewers commands and dominates, or does Texas hem and haw between Manning and Ewers. It may not matter much here, but if could lead to issues for the second game. Clem: 9--UT: 21
Seeberg:  Remember when expanding the playoffs meant we'd get to see different teams?  Oops.  Dabo and Co. snuck in as the 12 seed and their reward is a great(?) Texas team.  Honestly losing to Georgia twice is forgivable, but losing to their backup QB (for a quarter and a half anyway) does raise an eyebrow or two.  Quinn Ewers has been good but surprisingly not elite this season.  Still the Longhorns D might be the only one in the playoffs as good as the silver bullets, and it's hard to imagine Dabo's old school offense mustering enough points to stay in this one for four quarters.  Don't adjust your TVs, whole lotta shades of orange all around, but the burnt-sienna style takes the day.  Clem: 13--UT: 24

Tennessee Volunteers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: How do the Buckeyes want to be remembered? The team that suffered one of the (if not the) worst loss in OSU history or as national champions? This year will forever have a stain from the final regular season contest, but the end has yet to be written.  The game will come down to one main element: will the Buckeyes come out loose with no regrets or tight and scared to lose? Yes, the offensive line struggled against the Wolverine front and Tennessee is just as stout (not up the middle), but will the last time they took the field be a galvanizing force or a fear inducing memory? If the Buckeyes play their game and utilize the weapons effectively, it really shouldn't be that close.  Tennessee has a very good defense, but their offense leaves much to the imagination.  Yes, they beat Bama, but watching that game showed the Tide beating themselves.  OSU is more than capable of beating themselves (grrrrr....) but if they can avoid tripping over their own feet and execute cleanly, there isn't a better team in the country.  Here's my projection: Howard plays a good game (not up to the Oregon game but far better than the atrocity in Nov), the receivers actually become part of the gameplan, and the running game on the edge breaks some big runs.  On the defensive side, the Vols will break a few runs and hit Squirrel White for a few infuriating 3rd down conversions, but the bend don't break nature of the Bullets will be the difference.  The MVP of the game will be a toss up between Jeremiah Smith on a few amazing catches or Emeka Egbuka balling out on a consistent basis.  If Howard is just 'good', Bucks move on to the rematch in Pasadena.  UT: 13--OSU: 24
Hoying:
Good luck figuring out this team after their last two performances. Are we going to see the Buckeyes that laid the hammer on a top five team, or the one that couldn't get out of first gear against the most mid Michigan since the Brady Hoke era? My guess is "no" on both counts. The game against Indiana was won with a relentless pass rush and essentially two TDs on special teams. Don't count on Caleb Downs to house another punt (although it would be nice not to let them bounce for 30 yards) but he should be able to do anything else the Buckeyes expect from him. Heck, he got his first interception of the season against the hated maize and blue to gift wrap a Buckeye possession in the red zone. The Buckeyes were as close to automatic as you can get in the red zone all year before getting 10 points out of 5 trips in the Michigan game. The good news is that I don't think our offense can possibly look as bad as it did in the Buckeyes' last outing. The Buckeye O essentially did exactly as much, no more, no less, that they needed to lose. You can (and should) crap on the play calling, but all those runs up the middle? Half of them were runs outside that were poorly blocked or turned back inside by mistake by Judkins and Henderson. You wanted to pass the ball more? Howard had by far his worst day in the scarlet and gray, giving away 7 points to Michigan and taking another likely 7 off the board by throwing behind an Egbuka with room to work inside. If Howard just tucks and runs on every called pass, Michigan probably fails to put enough offense together to get the W. Then again, any plans to run Howard were scrambled when he took a big hit in the first half, putting the kid gloves back on the QB run game in the Ryan Day offense. The good news is that from this point on, every game is the last game of the year. We aren't getting a chance to skate by a cupcake in the first round like we all thought after the Indiana game. Jim Knowles took the Oregon game personally, and the Buckeyes have been lights out on defense since, even to the point of making heroic play after heroic play against the team up north to desperately try to jump-start the offense. I think Chip Kelly will take similar lessons from his failure to launch; he's going to pull out all the stops each and every time the Buckeyes are blessed to take the field. You don't have to worry about keeping Will Howard healthy anymore. Speaking of which, with the death roster Ryan Day was able to put together in the offseason, I think most of Buckeye Nation believed we could make a title run just as long as we kept Will Howard upright. But I fear that the more irreplaceable piece was Seth McLaughlin, as evidenced by the consensus All-American honors he earned after taking the field only ten times and the woeful Pro Football Focus grades the interior O-line has earned in his absence. If Ryan Day has any postseason wizardry left, he'll need it to cobble together a workable offensive line after losing the only two bona fide stars we had. Otherwise, look for a repeat of last year's Cotton Bowl. Tennessee has the defense to make Ohio State pay, not quite as good as the Silver Bullets but more than capable of getting opposing offenses out of their groove, especially in the running game. Time to let Howard cook, dial up some pressure against Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava, and bury the mistakes along with our recent history in The Game. Buckeyes take a close one and move on to what may be the most consequential game of the entire Playoff. UT: 17--OSU: 24
Schweinfurth: Man, I don't have a good feeling about this game. Maybe it's the playcalling from the TUN game. Maybe it's the offensive line or even Ryan Day's elite pucker ability. Seriously, how many diamonds has his butt made the last 4 years. I heard Tennessee described as "a better version of Michigan." I guess the good news is that they wear orange and white and not maize and blue? Look, let it rip. At this point, the Buckeyes have nothing to lose but pride. I want to see the Ohio State team that showed up against Georgia a few years ago. That Ohio State team wins this game going away. A timid game. Tennessee wins. We will know early which Ryan Day/Chip Kelly we get. I really want another shot at Oregon. UT: 14--OSU: 21
Seeberg:  Heavy sigh.  As nice a consolation prize as a home playoff game is, let's be honest, 10-2 was the absolute floor for this team this season, and we thudded into it spectacularly three weeks ago.  This game gives me a lot of heebie-jeebies.  Tennessee mirrors you-know-who (no, not Voldemort, Day/Cooper's nemesis) in a lot of ways:  very-good-to-great defense, middling-to-lousy offense, reliance on the run game (but with an elite RB), laughably overpaying for a high school QB, comically delusional fanbase, etc.  The only thing that gives me solace is that they won't be coming out of the visitor's tunnel in the southwest corner tomorrow night wearing winged helmets and piss-yellow with navy.  Both of these teams tend to start slow, and if it happens again, the 'Shoe could get ugly in a hurry.  For those who didn't notice.  Ohio State went tempo on two drives against UM, resulting in 10 points- and in case you forgot, 10 points is all the Buckeye offense mustered.  Under NO circumstances can this team wait til the "middle 8" of the game to find its 4th and 5th gear.  Amusingly, they do NOT script plays for...reasons?  And the last game that the opening drive resulted in a TD?  Oregon.  Yes, we lost that one, but certainly not due to the offensive side of the ball.  Oh, and we completely abandoned rotating the D-line against UM, which allowed them to wear us down and create their only drive of consequence late in the 4th to seal the game.  Rotate early, SCORE early, manage to make special teams a wash, and we get another chance at the Ducks.  UT: 17--OSU: 28

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