The Alabama Problem, and Other Playoff Issues

It just wouldn't be the College Football Playoff without Ohio State being somewhere near the conversation, would it? We've been doing this for 4 years and the Buckeyes have never finished higher than #3 or lower than #7, and it looks like a win over Northwestern would guarantee them a spot squarely within that range again.

But where? And why is the ceiling at #3 and not #2? After all, only Notre Dame is undefeated and virtually guaranteed a spot at this point. How does Ohio State really stack up against the other potential one-loss teams? Let's take a deeper dive.

FIRST TOTALLY STUPID AND OBVIOUS POINT

Undefeated Alabama and Clemson are obviously #1 and #2 in some order. Undefeated, win your P5 conference, you're in at the top (sorry, 2014 Florida State, these guys have style points out the wazoo (sorry sorry, WSU) which the Committee thinks matters for some reason).

But suppose Georgia, Pitt, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all win this weekend. That puts Notre Dame at an easy #1 but how should #'s 2 through 6 be apportioned among Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma?

WHOM DID YOU PLAY AND WHOM DID YOU BEAT

You know our philosophy here at Let's Go Bucks! We grade on resume first and go to the dreaded "I test" when all other metrics have failed us. With that in mind, let's do a blind resume comparison (the order is randomized, and please pretend you can't figure who they are right away), keeping in mind the aforementioned 5 teams would all be 12-1.

(note: some liberties were taken in assuming no other upsets occur next week in order to finalize opponents' records)

TEAM A
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 83-74

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: Close road win against 3-loss Power 5 team

Loss: Close loss to 4-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM B
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 84-61

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: At home against 3-loss Power 5 team (2 of these, one close, one blowout)

Loss: To 5-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

TEAM C
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 75-82

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 8

Best win: At home blowout win against 2-loss Power 5 team (this team also has a close road win over a 3-loss Power 5 team)

Loss: Blowout loss to 6-6 Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM D
Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 91-54

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 9

Best win: Neutral site win against 1-loss Power 5 team (this team also has blowout home and road wins against 3-loss Power 5 teams)

Loss: Blowout loss to 3-loss Power 5 team (on the road)

TEAM E
NOT a Conference Champion

FBS opponents' records: 81-64

Wins over bowl-eligible opponents: 7

Best win: Road blowout win against 3-loss Power 5 team (3 home blowout wins against 4-loss Power 5 teams as well)

Loss: To 1-loss Power 5 team (neutral site)

Team D is clearly out in front by themselves, so we'll put them at #2. That leaves teams A, B, C, and E to fight it out for the #3 and #4 rankings and the final playoff spots. Each has a healthy number of wins over bowl-eligible teams (although look at Team C's opponent win-loss; they must have played some craaaaaap along the way). What's better: beating a 2-loss team at home or a 3-loss team on the road? Probably the former, but not by a whole lot. Team C has one of each; Team B has none of either but two good home wins. Team E has the best loss, but they're not a conference champion, and their resume isn't strong enough to overcome such a glaring weakness. Let's pencil them in at #6. Non-champion Team B really isn't much better; they don't have a signature win or a good road win, so they go to #5.

That puts Teams A and C in the Playoff. Who gets to be #3? That depends on what's better: a more respectable loss or better top wins. Were this March Madness, the Committee would point out that you're not going to see any more garbage teams at this point; you're going to see the top dogs, so we'd better know you can beat them. But this isn't college basketball. Every game matters immensely, and you can't wish away your weakest performance. Oh, and margin of victory won't help you here, either. Team A is winning by 17.4 ppg, Team C by 17.5. They both played one common opponent, with Team A winning by 25 on the road and Team C winning by 12 at a neutral site. I'd probably give a slight nod to Team C, but I could easily go either way. 

In case these teams' identities aren't painfully obvious by now, the foregoing analysis gives us the following playoff rankings:

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson
6. Alabama

THE ALABAMA (AND CLEMSON) PROBLEM

As you noticed above, if every possible 1-loss team ends up in the hunt for the Playoff this weekend, I would put Alabama and Clemson at the bottom of the list. Why? Simple. They would be the only ones without a conference championship, and the rest of their resume would not support them jumping a conference champion. Yes, Alabama would have the best loss (unless Georgia beat them by 50 or something). Yes, Clemson would have wins over 9 bowl eligible teams. But neither would have the best win among the 1-loss teams. The only other thing Alabama has going for it at this point, the factor driving them merrily along at #1 all season, is this aura of invincibility from blowing out everyone they've played. The funny thing about auras of invincibility is that they tend to fade when you lose. As for Clemson, they've been on fire as of late as well, but the ACC, more than any other Power 5 conference, didn't have anything resembling a strong #2 team to give them any sort of challenge.

And don't get me started on the "conference non-champions have made the playoff before" train. In 2016, 1-loss non-champion Ohio State got in over a 2-loss champion Penn State. In 2017, 1-loss non-champion Alabama got in over a 2-loss champion Ohio State. In 2015, 1-loss non-champion and NFL talent stockpile Ohio State finished ranked behind (1) 1-loss champion Michigan State, (2) 1-loss conference runner-up Iowa, and (3) 2-loss conference champion Stanford. In 2018, if Alabama or Clemson ends up with 1 loss, they're very likely going to be looking around at a lot of 0- and 1-loss conference champions (and undefeated Notre Dame) pushing to crowd them out. If Alabama or Clemson loses and still finds themselves in the Playoff the next morning in front of Ohio State / Oklahoma, then you can start your "The fix is in!" takes.

JUDGMENT TUESDAY

Of course, everything above is my opinion, a little friendly advice to the Committee before this week's all-important rankings. Yes, this week's all-important rankings, because the rankings the Committee puts out this Tuesday are of paramount importance. If this week's rankings have Ohio State at #6, Buckeye fans should be very nervous about their playoff chances. Why? Because Oklahoma plays 9-3 and possibly top 10 Texas, and Ohio State plays 8-4 and probably ~#20 Northwestern. This isn't like 2014 or 2017 when Ohio State entered Championship Weekend with the opportunity to get another statement win and gain ground on a competitor. If the rankings this week are #5 Oklahoma and #6 Ohio State, and both teams win on Saturday, I have a hard time believing anything will switch on Sunday morning. If the rankings are reversed on Tuesday, it's still not quite win-and-in for Ohio State, since Oklahoma can avenge their loss and beat a better opponent than Ohio State can, but Buckeye Nation can keep hope alive and fight for enough of those ephemeral style points to keep the Sooners at bay.


THE BIG 12'S GAMBLE PAYING OFF

I thought the Big 12 resurrecting their conference championship game even though their conference schedule was already a 10 team round robin was an incredibly stupid idea. The prevailing wisdom was that a conference championship would give the Big 12's top team (or teams) a 13th game to pad their resume vis-a-vis the other Power 5 champions. I thought the extra game would be a pointless rematch with the #1 team likely having already beaten #2, and the game would be just as likely to derail a team that had already earned a playoff spot by season's end (hi, 1998 Kansas State). But, barring a giant upset by Northwestern this weekend, it appears that I was wrong and the Big 12 was right. Without Oklahoma's chance for redemption on Saturday, there would've been a very real chance that they entered the week in the catbird seat at #5 and sat at home watching the Buckeyes wow the Committee past the Sooners and sneak intothe #4 spot. This time, Oklahoma will be the team making up ground. Of course, if Ohio State loses and Oklahoma faceplants against the Longhorns again, the Big 12 will look really, really, really stupid.