1.) Draper 41-14 (2-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 38-17 (2-11 upset)
3.) Schweinfurth 34-21 (5-8 upset)
4.) Seeberg 33-22 (3-10 upset)
"Who is Number One?"
"You are Number Six."
"I am not a number. I am a free man!"
- The Prisoner
We all know who Number One is (by a million) but the Buckeyes find themselves at Number Six, with one week to go and only one team ahead guaranteed to lose. Come Sunday morning, all of college football nation will be looking to the Committee for information and speculating about whose side they're on (but that would be telling), and no matter how desperately the teams in the playoff hunt want one of those four coveted spots, at least one of them won't get it. Let's hope that by hook or by crook, the Buckeyes will.
FRIDAY
Pac-12: #17 Utah Utes vs. #11 Washington Huskies
Draper: The Pac12 has been a dumpster fire of mediocrity. Out of the fire has emerged the preseason favorite Huskies in a very odd and unsuspected return to the top. No real reason to think the Utes will take care of the heavily favored Huskies in their 1st Pac12 Championship appearance (surprising that this is the first rodeo for Utah). Jake Browning has at least one massive brainfart a game, but that won't be enough to keep the Huskies from a Rose Bowl berth. UU: 13--UW: 30
Hoying: Last year, conference championship weekend pitted 7 of the top 8 teams against each other in 4 huge battles (also TCU was there), while the Pac-12 was off in the corner eating paint chips. This year it's even worse; neither of these teams is sniffing a playoff spot, and more disgustingly, it's a rematch! Time to break out the How Pointless? meter once again, wherein I weigh in on just how unnecessary the contest at hand is.
How Pointless? As pointless as last year, which is to say, Super Pointless. Washington smooshed Utah back in September and went on to finish a game ahead of the Utes in conference record while playing in the much tougher division. The first time these teams met, Washington RB Myles Gaskin ran wild, and after seeing him blitz WSU in the blizzard last week, I'd expect him to do it again. UU: 17--UW: 27
Schweinfurth: I really haven't watched a lot of Pac-12 games this year because having two kids 3 and under plus "Pac-12 After Dark" is a really bad mix. With that said, I have tried to pay attention mostly because of what Washington State was trying to pull off. The Huskies put an end to that in Pullman last week. Look, Utah is a pretty good team that has been boosted by playing in a really crappy division. Washington was supposed to be a playoff team again. With that in mind I'll take the Huskies. UU: 13--UW: 35
Seeberg: Wait, Utah is in the top 20? Definitely missed that. In any event, it's been an odd year for the Huskies, as most would say they have underachieved, a rare feat for any Chris Petersen squad. They did manage to salvage their season by beating their in-state rivals in the
SATURDAY
Big 12: #14 Texas Longhorns vs. #5 Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Let's be honest, this is the only real game that a)matters and b) people expect a competitive game. Rematches usually favor the team that lost the first matchup so point Sooners. I have seen the Sooners in a few of their recent games. Their offense is incredibly dynamic but MAN does that defense suck. Texas isn't much different (see Big 12). Honestly, it will likely be another Red River Shootout (fine me, Big12) and that's likely going to favor the Sooners offense even though the Longhorns pulled out the last second win with Dicker the Kicker. I'll be rooting hard for the burnt orange but I think they come up just short after breaking all the scoreboards in Jerry World. Murray cements his Heisman runner-up status and the Sooners keep their hopes alive (to be crushed by Bama). UT: 48--OU: 55
Hoying: How Pointless? Moderately pointless by Big 12 standards. The Big 12 championship game will always be pointless since the conference plays a complete round robin (the only way it wouldn't be pointless would be another round robin of 3 or more teams tied at the top) but at least this year is interesting in that the team with the better record lost to the other team. It's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season (stupid 1976 Rose Bowl) and reeeallly hard to upset the same team twice in one season. Texas didn't really outplay OU the first time; they got the lucky bounces and, to their credit, made the most of them. That being said, all the pressure is, once again, on the team in crimson. Texas is ahead of schedule, and a win vs. a loss is nothing from a bowl placement perspective: they're going to the Sugar Bowl either way (unless Oklahoma somehow wins and misses the Playoff). A Big 12 title and a win over your hated rival isn't nothing, but Oklahoma will have one eye over their shoulder at the charging Buckeyes and the rest of hell that could break loose should the Longhorns prevail. I am loath to pick against Texas Tom in any big games, as the Horns always overperform in these situations, but Oklahoma is just too dang unstoppable on offense to drop two games to Texas in one season. On to Miami. UT: 41--OU: 45
Schweinfurth: I am so conflicted by this one. Oklahoma can put up points in bunches, but good lord that defense is hard to watch. I saw a stat from Max Olson of the Athletic that has Oklahoma 113th(!) in stop rate (% of defensive stop that allow 0 points) allowing 2.67 points per possession. Let that sink in, Oklahoma allows almost a field goal every possession. That is just horrendous and it has gotten worse since the Sooners fired Mike Stoops. The problem here is that it is very hard to beat a team, especially a rival) twice in the same year. I can see Texas winning this game because of Oklahoma's D being that bad. The points the Sooners put up are just too much. Take the over on this game (it's only 77 and that could just be the first half). UT: 56--OU: 63
Seeberg: Rams vs. Chiefs, part III, or Red River Rivalry, part II, take your pick. The beer and points will flow heavily in this one. Lost in the Buckeyes' search for the playoffs again is that it will take a Herculean offensive effort from a Tom-Herman-led squad to pull it off. Sadly, even hanging half a hundred on the Sooners may not be enough, as Kyler Murray has hit a groove, feeling more comfortable on the big stage seemingly with every passing week. I'd like to think the pressure of this one will get to him, but you just know OU will be razor-sharp (at least on the one side of the ball at which they're competent) against their rival- a rival responsible for the only blemish on their schedule. Enjoy the points, bemoan the victor. UT: 45--OU: 52
SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #4 Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: While UGA had a nice season in the trash SEC East, they lost to their one big cross division opponent (and got slaughtered). Bama on the other hand, shut out the team that destroyed UGA...uh oh. I watched a little more Bama in the Iron Bowl and my opinion hasn't changed. They are heads and tails above the pack right now, and that includes Georgia. Why haven't we heard much about Georgia recently? They've played 1 team that anyone cares about (sorry Florida and Kentucky) and they were blown out. Roll Tide. Bama: 48--UGA: 24
Hoying: How Pointless? Low. The Tide have a better record, and beat the team that beat Georgia, but the Dawgs played a tougher schedule, and yes, even arguably in the tougher division with the resurgence of Florida and the surgence of Kentucky in the East. Since losing to LSU, Georgia has gone on a tear (excepting a bit of a slow start against Auburn), riding a balanced offense and a very good defense to the doorstep of the playoff. It's going to be a shame when they lose by a million. Bama: 42--UGA: 20
Schweinfurth: Georgia can totally screw everything up for the committee and this isn't the Mark Richt coached Dawgs. They can actually win big games. The problem is the self-aware terminator that Bama has been this season. Georgia does have a chance...if Tua's leg explodes (it has been close a couple of times). Bama is better and this is just an appetizer before it gets to devour the 4 seed in the playoffs. Poor Dawg. Bama: 45--UGA: 13
Seeberg: Bama by a million. Sadly for the Dawgs, a solid case can be made that they are one of the best four teams in the country, but it won't matter with a second tally in the L column after this one. Do we (Ohio State, that is) want Bama? Absolutely not. But it's who we'll get if things break our way. Yay? Bama: 38--UGA: 17
ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Draper: Wheee....another 'who cares, Clemson is gonna roll game'. Most advanced metrics are lauding Clemson as being on the same level as Bama and I scoff at that, but they are certainly in the upper echelon. The rest of the ACC on the other hand....is not. The SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten all have some semi-relevance this year but the Pac 12 and ACC have been crap and Clemson respectively. No reason to think Sunshine will do anything but wreck the Panthers on their way to a 2 seed. The defensive line is too good and Pitt is bad (put Pitt in?). This will be done by halftime, but Dabo's backups will keep chugging. Clem: 55--Pitt: 23
Hoying: How Pointless? If this is the price of keeping as many ACC Coastal teams as far away from Clemson as possible during the regular season, a 12-0 vs. 7-5 conference championship is A-OK in my book. I mean, what is there to honestly say about this game? Pitt is not a great team. They're not even a good team. Their best game this year was holding Notre Dame to 2 field goals in the first half and then watching the game inevitable slip away from them (thanks for nothing). If Clemsoning still existed then we would be at DEFCON One for it to make its appearance in this game, but I wouldn't hold your breath for this one. Just look away; the Buckeyes are playing at the same time. Clem: 48--Pitt: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't know how much there is really to say about this game. Clemson has rolled through the ACC for the most part and this should be ugly. Clemson, big. Clem: 42--Pitt: 14
Seeberg: Woof. Scary that a division champion in a power 5 conference can get to a title game unranked. If a power 5 title game had to be at the same time as the Bucks' I'm glad it's this stinker. I'm still not 100% sold on the 2018 version of Clemson, with a bunch of meh wins (albeit with no losses), and a win over a 7-5 Pitt team isn't going to change that. Regardless, that victory is all but inevitable as the Tigers yawn their way into the playoff again. Clem: 41--Pitt: 17
Mountain West: #25 Fresno State Bulldogs @ #22 Boise State Broncos (Nothing like a little palate cleanser before the main course.)
Draper: Didn't we see this before? Boise has been sneaking around the chicken coop in the Mountain West letting Utah State soak up some love from the 15 people that actually watch Mountain West football until crushing their hopes and dreams last week and knocking them out of their conference championship. Now, the Bulldogs hope to return to the glory years of the late 1900s when they were the scrappy little school that was good...until Boise took over. Sorry. Boise is the captain now, and will remain so. FSU: 20--BSU: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Arrrrrggggghhhh. Not this AGAAAAIIIIN. Not only is this the same matchup as last year's Mountain West championship, these teams JUST PLAYED 3 weeks ago. Seriously, Utah State, with all the love you were getting, you couldn't come through on the blue turf last week when it really counted? I didn't believe in the Broncos last week, to my detriment, so I'll ride with them to take two from the Bulldogs this year. FSU: 21--BSU: 24
Schweinfurth: This game feels like Groundhog's Day. Over and over and over and over and...I haven't spent any time even looking at the Mountain West this year because, meh. Broncos I guess? FSU: 14--BSU: 17
Seeberg: I was on the Boise State train for years and, like my colleague Hoying, lost belief in them only for them to rise up and disallow the Aggies from supplanting them atop the Mountain (West). If USU couldn't do it, I don't expect Fresno State to either. Broncos pull through another close one. FSU: 17--BSU: 24
B1G: #21 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #6 THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draper: Ok. Everyone is expecting the Buckeyes to wallop the Wildcats on their way to another B1G championship, but I'm not so sure it will be that easy. While the Buckeye offense SHOULD (read: should) make mincemeat our of the purple cats, the defense is build to beat power teams (like TTUN) than it is to beat the 'scrappy gym rat' type teams. The problem is that Fitzgerald squad is the definition of scrappy. What makes the difference is that this Buckeye team got a taste of what it could be last week, and they know what's in front of them. They won't come out with the same intensity as the Michigan game, but I think it will be surprisingly close. The key for me is the same (and this is what led to the blow out last week): get going early. For the eh....8 or so weeks before the Michigan game, the team looked like poo and fell behind early giving the other team hope. End the hope for Cinderella early and it's goodnight sweetheart. Honestly, I see the Bucks with the potential to break the scoreboard here, but how long can Northwestern hang? Depends on if the tone is set. If so, it will be done in the first half. If not, hold on for another Big 12 Title game. I think the Bucks get right, go fast, and take control to cruise to a nice win....but not enough for the playoff unless someone falters. OSU: 55--NW: 30
Hoying: How Pointless? Not at all, really. Despite the difference in overall records, these two come in with identical 8-1 conference records and didn't play each other during the season. Remember when I said I was terrified of the Purdue game, and it turned out I wasn't quite frightened enough? I don't get that feeling at all for this one. Northwestern runs the same plodding boring offense that Michigan does, only with far worse talent. And they have trouble protecting the quarterback (giving up 29 sacks so far). The defense is good, I guess, but super banged up (even worse than Ohio State), and their DBs don't have the speed to do anything resembling hanging with Zone Six. My only concern is where this Buckeye team's heads are at. They've shown the ability to play down to anyone (well, not Rutgers (Northwestern did though)), but whenever they find themselves in an underdog role they play out of their minds. They are most certainly not in that role this Saturday, unless they can tap into the "we need to crush these guys to make a playoff statement" mentality. That didn't work so well last year (a 6 point win against a slooooowwww Wisconsin team). It did work in 2014, but again, Ohio State was actually an underdog in that one. Don't expect a repeat of The Game, but that's what makes The Game, special, you know? An annual Happy Thanksgiving present to our favorite khaki'd turkey. NU: 20--OSU: 38
Schweinfurth: This has the feeling of 2014 all over again. The Bucks seemingly need a miracle to make the playoffs behind a cannon armed QB. Okay, Haskins isn't the third string QB, he's much, much better. I feel like this is a great match up for Ohio State. Northwestern is a very good team, but they just don't have the athletes to match up with the speed the Bucks have on the outside. I could realistically see Olave playing the Devin Smith role Saturday and just blow by the 'Cats' secondary. You just get the feeling that Ohio State turned the dial up to 11 last week. Is it sustainable, well they have the talent to keep it rolling. The Bucks have to at least cover, and I think they will. Let's get that second straight B1G title! NU: 10--OSU: 42
Seeberg: Well guys, we need 59-0 again...but sadly it ain't gonna happen. NW has an uncanny knack to play EVERYONE close. Up 17-0 before choking away a win against TTUN, yet they only beat Rutgers by 3. Yes, unfortunately you read that right. The Big Ten West champions ONLY BEAT RUTGERS BY THREE BLEEPING POINTS. Winning this game with myriad style points seems within reach, but I just don't see it. Fitzgerald is more willing/able to employ at least a handful of plays with some imagination, unlike last week's supposed offensive genius/QB guru/all-around absolute wacko Jim Harbaugh. The Bucks should be able to play with a reasonable amount of game control, using a suddenly proficient run game to take some of the load off of the Dwayne Train. But a couple of big plays keep the Wildcats in it into the 2nd half before the speed of Ohio State puts it away late. Go Bucks, onto...the playoffs? Cue the Jim Mora rant. NU: 28--OSU: 41
Upset Special
Draper: Marshall over Virginia Tech
Hoying: Memphis over UCF
Schweinfurth: Not a lot to pick from so Cal over Stanford
Seeberg: Louisiana over App State
Bonus:
MAC: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Buffalo Bulls
How Pointless? Low-to-moderate. This isn't a rematch, but the Bulls have a 1 game lead in conference record, and, unlike Northern Illinois (and Northwestern) didn't lose 3 games out of conference.
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
How Pointless? Super pointless. App State beat the Cajuns by double digits on their way to a 2-game lead in conference. Yawn.
C-USA: UAB Blazers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
How Pointless? Quite pointless. These teams played LAST WEEK, and Middle Tennessee crushed the Blazers. It is fun to see UAB's quick ascendancy after their football program was literally canceled and resurrected in the last 5 years.
AAC: Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights
How Pointless? As Peak Pointless as you can get outside of the Big 12. Not only did these guys play already this season, but UCF finished a full 3 games in conference ahead of the Tigers. And these teams played twice last year and UCF won twice. This is becoming Boise State / Fresno State level annoying.
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