Week 16: Twice More, With Feeling

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 48-16 (0-14 upset)
2.) Hoying 47-17 (2-12 upset)
3.) Seeberg 43-21 (4-10 upset)
3.) Draper 41-23 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the first 12-team Playoff without an Ohio State home game. Unlike the last Playoff expansion, the Buckeyes are sitting at home in the first round of their title defense season as a result of playing too well rather than too poorly (same number of losses though). While Buckeye Nation waits with bated breath to see which member of the "We Knocked Notre Dame Out of the Playoff" club will be joining them in Jerryworld, we can also settle in to watch a pair of rematches and the Big Ten's only first round participant.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: Rematches are stupid. OU beat Bama IN TUSCALOOSA and their reward is to play Bama in Norman in a game that 'really' counts.  Let's not forget that the Sooners were EXTREMELY fortunate (lucky) to win round 1.  I believe it was the smallest postgame win expectancy of a winner for the year.  While OU has a nasty dominant defense, the offense is supremely mid.  Mateer needs to make a few plays and I'm just not sure he can do it.  Bama has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few weeks, but the talent is there.  If Simpson can stop seeing ghosts and return to a semblance of the first half of the season (sans FSU), I expect a flip.  DeBoer has a TON to play for as a loss may send him into the open arms of the dumpster fire in Ann Arbor.  Death. Taxes. Bama.  Bama: 20--OU: 13

Hoying: Ah yes, the rare home-and-home intraseason series. What is this, the Pac-2? Just over a month ago, Alabama followed up last year's waxing by the Sooners in Norman by laying another egg at home, with 3 Tide turnovers leading to 17 of the 23 points that Oklahoma needed to clip Bama by 2. Ask yourself: is that likely to happen again? Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well down the stretch, with OU failing to hit the 20 mark against middling Missouri and LSU to close out the season and Alabama getting absolutely whacked by UGA after tiebreaking their way into the SEC Championship. Both of these teams are big believers in min-maxing. Bama has a great (if inconsistent) passing game but runs about as well as Joe Oliver. Oklahoma has fully Venablized their defense but can't really do anything with the ball at all. I don't love this pick, especially since Bama hasn't looked like BAMA since beating Tennessee way back in October, but I can't see OU getting anything going offensively, even on the home turf. Looks like Michigan will have to wait another couple weeks to see if DeBoer is willing to drag them out of the muck. Bama: 17--OU: 13

Schweinfurth: Not sure how to feel on this one. We get a wonderful SEC rematch!!! Woohoo (fart). OU won the first game, and it is really, really hard to win beat a team twice in a year. Alabama can't run the ball and was embarrassed by Georgia. It's been this way all year, and I think it continues tonight. It's close. It's ugly. It's SEC football because they are both great (or not). Bama: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: To this day, I think it’s obvious to even the most casual observer that rushing Mateer back for Red River was a colossal mistake. The Sooners offense has been mediocre at best down the stretch, and even though Ty and Co in the crimson are pretty one-dimensional on offense, it’s still better than whatever OU is tossing out there now. The Sooners’ defense keeps them in it, but Bama gets revenge (and TTUN doesn’t get DeBoer, everyone wins! Well, except Oklahoma). Bama: 24—OU: 16

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 20

Miami Hurricanes @ Texas A&M Aggies

Draper: This one is super difficult.  The super high variance of the Reed or...the super high variance of Beck and the Canes.  Oh yeah, it's in Kyle Field which could be bad news for the Canes.  However, Miami gets to play the disrespect card with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove while the Aggies more or less backed in to the playoffs after dropping the finale to the Horns. Elko will make sure to rein in Reed to prevent the big mistake while the defense tries to take the game over.  Cristobal will be worried about Beck, but I think the play is to let him cook and see what happens.  Yeah, Beck could throw 5 picks and lose the game, but the upside with Toney and a good Beck would overcome the homefield.  The Canes roll the dice, limit Reed in the run game, and exit Aggieland with a ticket to meet the Buckeyes.  UM: 20--TAMU: 17

Hoying: Who wants to get blasted by the most talented team in America? Earlier this season, many folks desperate to crown a title favorite other than our beloved Buckeyes latched onto the once again resurgent Miami Hurricanes. And why not? Their week 1 win over Notre Dame was as good as anyone else's and then they had that killer 3-week run against ranked South Florida (lol), Florida, and ranked Florida State (LOL). But the Canes have never really looked that great since, outside of a strong closing statement against Pitt that seems to have barely carried them into the Playoff. A&M has been a bit more consistent but seems to have saved the worst for last, getting thumped by Texas not long after needing a miracle to escape a bad South Carolina team. The U is volatile enough to lose to any team in this year's Playoff, with Carson Beck's addiction to picks threatening to flare up at any time, but they've been able to rouse themselves for their big matchups and I think they can do it one more time. Just one. UM: 27--TAMU: 24

Schweinfurth: Miami has the talent to win this game. It really just depends on which Carson Beck shows up. If 4 INT Carson shows up, not looking good. If good Carson shows up, watch out. Truthfully, I do think home field matters this year. Kyle Field is worth at least 7 points. UM: 21--TAMU: 24
Seeberg: Hmmm. What’s the ACC doing here? I thought ESPN everyone was trying to turn the playoff into power conferences only? Oh well. At any rate, the formerly vaunted U roll into Kyle Field sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…not much else. They’ll face Marcel Reed and the Aggies, sporting an early season win over Notre Dame and…well you get it. Neither of these squads did much to build on that early season success as Beck decided to throw to the wrong team a lot during the middle of the year and Reed took that mantle towards the end. Both teams do have solid pass rushes, and Reed is a bit more mobile. I know they looked worse down the stretch, but several weeks off erases most of that and the home crowd should be just enough to make sure we have another away bowl game crowd on New Year’s Eve. Yay. UM: 17—TAMU: 23

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels

Draper: This rematch is also dumb...but could be a little interesting.  Tulane was blown out in the first round, but this was the first we saw of Chambliss.  Retzlaff was still getting his sealegs under him at that point as well.  The Rebs are fighting so many off field demons with Lane's departure, that it may galvanize or destroy their focus.  I do think the Retzlaff is a good QB that could make this a bit spicy, but let's not forget the Tulane's coach has also taken another job (even if he hasn't left yet).  Ole Miss has the athletes and should be able to outlast Tulane...but I don't think they pull away until late.  Tul: 20--Miss: 34

Hoying: Perhaps a rematch can be forgiven if the first was close, decided by a couple of big plays. Less fun is a retread of a 5-score whomping in which the visiting team completed all of 10 passes between their 2 quarterbacks, and not for lack of trying. We're talking Craig Krenzel against San Diego State levels of aerial incompetence. Generally, the Rebs are a bit more vulnerable on the ground, and the Green Wave was able to find a little bit of room in these teams' first meeting. But you're going to have to score in bunches to keep up with Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss...that is, as long as it's still Lane Kiffin's Ole Miss for at least another 60 minutes. The key minds on offense have all headed west, although a few have pledged to stick around to tamper with Ole Miss's players keep the Rebel scoring attack on track. I don't exactly expect the Rebels to crumble under the chaos, but I don't expect the same potency that we've seen over the last six years in Oxford. It won't matter this week, but the Rebs are in for a rude awakening in their next rematch once the calendar flips to 2026. Tul: 20--Miss: 35

Schweinfurth: Another rematch. Yawn. This has intrigue, but only because of Joey Freshwater. Ole Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 38
Seeberg: If a G5 team has a chance this season, it’s here, despite the blowout 3 months ago. Ole Miss is currently a well-chronicled disaster. Tulane can run it, and the storm over Oxford will keep this one close for a half or so. Can you IMAGINE the Lane social media if the Rebels lose?? Sadly, it will stay in our imaginations only. Tul: 17—Miss: 34

James Madison Dukes @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: Not going to lie, I have no clue what JMU brings to this game other than an A+ social media game and a nice run game.  I've been fading Oregon all year but it continues to haunt me.  No, I'm not doubting them here.  JMU will come out with the kitchen sink, but when everything settles in, the Ducks will simply overwhelm the Dukes.  Just not enough for the little guy (but it would be funny).  JMU: 17--Ore: 45

Hoying: Perhaps if Oregon could have had a warmup game like this in last year's Playoff they wouldn't have come out so flat footed in Pasadena. Yeah, it's always better not to have to play an extra game in a lose-and-you're-out scenario, but the Ducks don't have a lot to worry about in this one outside of the injury bug. This season James Madison played a total of one Power 4 team, Louisville (what is it with Playoff teams and Louisville), and lost by 2 scores. No, I wouldn't rather have seen Duke, or Notre Dame, or Vanderbilt make the Playoff in JMU's place (it matters very little who makes the Playoff after around team #10 or so), but this is the kind of team that Oregon has been chewing up and spitting out all season (except Iowa, but they've been dragging everyone from Indiana to Michigan State into the same 17-13 slog). A Duck win sets up what should be one of the most intriguing matchups of the Playoff down in the Orange Bowl. JMU: 10--Ore: 35

Schweinfurth: The Ducks are one of the teams that could win it all. JMU is not. End of story. JMU: 9--Ore: 35
Seeberg: Well, the Ducks got their wish this year, a first-round game! In all honesty the Ducks are one of 5 teams that can legitimately win it all this year- and the only one without a bye. The best part about this matchup has been how hilarious JMU Twitter has been. Spectacular content, rivaling the Pop Tarts Bowl even. I’ll be sorry when that ends Saturday night. If Oregon avoids injury, watch out CFP they may very well claim their birthright: going on a legit run only to get smoked by Ohio State. Note the score. JMU: 21—Ore: 41