COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP - OHIO STATE VS. NOTRE DAME

Final Standings:

1.) Draper 53-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 52-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 51-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 48-23 (1-13 upset)

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Draper: The day has finally arrived, and the story of the season will finally have been written.  Will this Buckeye class live forever as gladiators that arose from the ashes to be crowned kings or live in infamy as the top class that never beat TTUN or won any hardware?  After suffering the slings and arrows of the fanbase, I’d be hard pressed to have found a team that has rallied more strongly to each other, to their coach, and to a mission.  This is the day where it comes to fruition.  From an Xs-and-Os standpoint, the Buckeyes have advantages all over the field. The one advantage held by the Irish would be the mobile nature of Riley Leonard.  I expect Downs to play a lot of the game in the box to curtail the running and daring Leonard to go over the top where Ransom and Co. will be waiting.  Much of the onus will fall on Cody Simon’s shoulders to muster the run defense and keep the bullets tight in the run game.  The D-line will get pressure against a good Irish O-line with the freshman left tackle.  On the other side of the ball, Howard will continue dealing.  Most talk about the Irish secondary (which is very good), but I believe the Longhorn secondary is better. Expect Smith to get involved this game more, because the Irish can’t hold up in the front seven without support. If he is taken out, the myriad other weapons will be activated.  Tre busts a few chunk plays, Q pounds the rock for short yardage, Howard deals and runs more than expected, and the receivers ball out as usual.  If we don’t play the UM ‘shoot ourselves in the foot at every juncture game’, I don’t see the Irish path to victory.  Keep it clean, limit turnovers, play your game, and we hoist the trophy tonight.  One more, then forever. Go Bucks! OSU: 27--ND: 13
Hoying: Unless you thought that the five advantages for the Irish that I had to rack my brain to produce are all total gamechangers, you already know who I’m picking in this one. The Buckeyes have proven this season that they can lose to an inferior, borderline-bad team (albeit one on a steep upswing). But as I said in my Tennessee preview, that basically required the Buckeye offense to do exactly as much, no more, no less, as it took to lose that game. Every game since has proven that Chip Kelly took the loss to TTUN as personally as Knowles took the loss to Oregon. I think the Irish are going to need all of their lucky charms to win this one. Riley Leonard is just plain bad under pressure, and none of the Buckeyes’ Playoff opponents have found a way to slow down the Buckeye pass rush, even with enough opposing offensive lines dishing out more hugs than the Tanner family on Full House. And they haven’t faced near the injuries that Notre Dame has. Joe Alt isn’t walking through that door anytime soon to save them. The Irish pass defense is elite, but they’re not good enough to manage Smith, Egbuka, and Tate one-on-one. You cheat back a little and that opens the door for Judkins and Henderson to do what Chip Trayanum and, well, Henderson did to them last year. Notre Dame does not have the interior line strength to put six in the box and dare Ohio State to run. Basically, they have to hope that Howard completely implodes to the point that it makes his performance on November 30th look like Dwayne Haskins’, then turn the resulting basket of sacks and turnovers into short enough fields that the Silver Bullets don’t have time to bend before they break. This is the most pissed off Ohio State team since…well, the last time these two met in the postseason, and we saw what happened on that day even after Joey Bosa’s career ended on the ticky-tackiest targeting call this side of Denzel Ward’s BBQ Shack. The gate is wide and the way is easy that leads to destruction, and those Ohio State opponents who enter by it are many. The gate is narrow and the way is hard, that leads to life against the Buckeyes, and those who find it are few. They won’t find it tonight. OSU: 28—ND: 13
Schweinfurth: The long and winding road of this season ends tonight. A lot of ills and wounds can be healed by one more victory. Jack Sawyer and company have been playing the type of defense Buckeye fans have been clamoring for since the 2014 team. The Silver Bullets have been absolutely dominant all season. One more test in a bit of a paper tiger offense. If the Bullets can keep the Irish offense bottled up, it could be over quick. Especially if Notre Dame decides man coverage is a good idea. There are so many weapons on the Buckeye offense and I'm not sure the Irish have faced a team like this. The Irish offensive line is beat up (yes, so is Ohio State's, but they had time to adjust) and Sawyer, JTT, and Tyliek should eat well. Finally, this team plays hard for Ryan Day. They love the man, and I get it. Lou Holtz started running his mouth again (FWIW) and my have started writing checks the Irish can't cash. Go Bucks. Let's get #9! OSU: 31--ND: 10
Seeberg:  Look, this game has been broken down ad nauseum the last week and change. The fact is that there are more ways to victory for the scarlet and gray. Talent and scheme favor the Buckeyes. But the last two years have taught us that this will still be a four quarter contest. I hope to see a similar defensive plan as Oregon. Simon spied Gabriel beautifully and first-read throws were largely taken away. Another fast start is paramount to get the Irish uncomfortable and for our seniors. They have prepared and preached about playing one more week in the scarlet and gray. Well, there’s no more games now. An early deficit coupled with that realization could be disastrous. But despite the circuitous route, this team is right where many of us thought they would be when things kicked off 5(!) months ago. In recent Buckeye history, this game has the feel of 2023 OSU-PSU to me. Bucks will appear the superior team but ND won’t beat themselves and hang in well past half. In the end, however, a big drive or a clutch stop (preferably both) will finally put the golden domers away. Enjoy the night Buckeye Nation! OSU: 24—ND: 13

Ten Reasons Ohio State Beats Notre Dame

1. The Safety Dance

When Ohio State hired Jim Knowles to take a hatchet to the incompetent defense that cost the Buckeyes a natty (2020) and their longest ever streak in The Game (2021), they were expecting the same kind of three high safety driven scheme that Knowles had run at Oklahoma State. And they implemented it fairly well in 2022, with Tanner McCalister following Knowles from the other OSU to teach Ronnie Hickman and Lathan Ransom how the scheme worked. But I doubt that Knowles could have foreseen the kind of talent he'd have at his disposal on the back end for Ohio State this year. Ransom's still here, and he's the highest-graded run defender in the country. Caleb Downs might just be the best defender in the country, period. I can't recall a play this season where I thought, "Man, Caleb, what are you doing?" but there seems to be at least one in every game where I'm not convinced the guy is human. Throw in last year's elite nickelback Jordan Hancock to round out the 3-safety look and you'll not find a better deep threat container and run game neutralizing combination anywhere in college football.

2. Ask and You Shall Receive

Notwithstanding Ohio State's elite safety unit, Notre Dame has put the best performing pass defense of any team on the field this fall (and winter). But they haven't seen anything like what Ohio State's about to roll out on them. Last time the Irish took the field they did not allow a single reception to a wide receiver. But that's Penn State for you; Ohio State allowed three receptions to wide receivers in Happy Valley earlier this season. The only team that Notre Dame has seen with receiver talent in the same galaxy as Ohio State is USC, and they allowed 360 yards through the air and 3 TDs to the Trojans. Oregon decided to play man-to-man coverage against Jeremiah Smith and paid dearly. Notre Dame has pledged to do the same; let's see if there's a man among them who can stop a properly motivated #4.

3. H-O-R-W-A-R-D

All the wide receiver talent in the world doesn't make much of a difference if the man behind center can't get them the ball. Look no further than (no, not Ohio State last year, leave Kyle McCord alone), let's say, LSU pre-Burrow. After McCord declared his intentions to leave and it became really, really obvious that Devin Brown and Lincoln Kienholz weren't going to be the answer, Buckeye Nation was a bit frustrated to miss out on Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward to pick up...Will Howard? I mean, yeah, nice Big 12 championship, but the last transfer QB we picked up in a pinch was one of the top recruits in his year and left thanks to criminal mismanagement of his talents by his Georgia Bulldogs. It felt like with Howard, you knew what you were getting at this point. I thought if he could be as good as replacement-level JT Barrett, the Buckeyes might have a chance. Folks, he's been better. Outside of a clunker against you-know-who, Howard has been one of the steadiest hands in college football, with a 72.6% completion percentage that ranks #1 in Ohio State history and one of the top QB ratings across the entire sport. Riley Leonard is a great dual threat QB in his own right but I wouldn't expect him to engineer a 13 play, 88 yard drive with 7 completions like Will used to put Texas away.

4. I've Aged You Well. Some Might Say Perfect

This year has been an interesting reversal of fortune for the collective age of the Scarlet and Gray. A program that's used to sending its top talent early to the NFL and facing scrappy underdogs of second-tier senior talent suddenly finds itself holding on to the vast majority of the landmark 2021 class for one more year. And people say NIL is destroying the sport. From here in Columbus, it looks like it's saving college football, convincing players to stick around for one more year who'd otherwise be long gone. Joliet Jack spent the offseason putting the band back together, and the fruits of his labor are a starting lineup featuring 13 senior or grad starters, the vast majority of which could easily have found playing time in the NFL this year. Setting aside the obvious raw ability of this group, their combined experience and leadership are precisely the intangibles any championship team needs.

5. Bustin' Makes Me Feel Bad

It feels strange to say, but the Buckeyes have been relatively lucky from an injury standpoint this year. Yes, they were thin at offensive line even when the season began, and yes, they lost their two best players on the line, forcing them to rethink how to put together an effective run blocking scheme. But Notre Dame's been getting punched in the gut again and again this season, up to and including their last outing in the semifinals against Penn State. From All-American cornerbacks, to offensive linemen, defensive linemen, a kicker, and even their star running back. It's gotten so bad that starting lineman Charles Jagusah, ruled out for the season during training camp, might be back for the championship...to replace another lineman, Antoine Knapp, who left the Penn State game with an injury. The Irish have weathered the storm to the tune of a 13-game winning streak, but when you're already working at a talent disadvantage, you don't want to be breaking in new starters against the best team you'll face all year.

6. Line Dance

Speaking of breaking in a new-look offensive line, the Irish have come up with the worst possible time to do so. The Buckeye defensive front has been an absolute wrecking crew throughout the Playoff, totaling 12 sacks, 17 TFLs, and 10 pass breakups, along with a pretty significant forced fumble and touchdown to clinch a spot in the championship. Jack Sawyer in particular has been playing like a man on fire, which is even more impressive considering every opposing tackle along the way has mistaken him for Olaf and given him a warm hug. But with Notre Dame starting a new left tackle this week, look for the damage to be done on the other side of the D line by JT Tuimoloau in his swan song. A repeat of the 2022 Penn State game wouldn't be out of the question.

7. Running on Empty

As stated above and in our list of Irish superlatives, Notre Dame covers the pass like no one else nationwide. It may surprise you to hear, then, that their run defense has been downright pedestrian. Part of this may be a defensive line that's a constant work of progress due to injury. But for whatever reason, the Buckeye offense, usually predicated on success through the air, may find some room to work on the ground after taking a step back against Texas. Notre Dame's elite rushing attack may be elite but Jeremiyah Love will have a lot harder time trying to run on TnT inside and Caleb and Lathan outside than Tre and Quinshon will finding room against a (relatively) soft Irish front. Look for Howard to have a game changing play like he did against Penn State and Texas as well.

8. Notre Dame Ain't Played Nobody, Pawwwwwl (until the Playoff)

The tone of the media was very different after Ohio State's loss to Oregon as compared to the treatment of Notre Dame after losing to Northern Illinois. The Irish had been riding high off of a season-opening road win over Texas A&M, but one untimely loss put their Playoff hopes on a razor's edge as early as week 2. The reason? A squishy soft schedule the rest of the way, which looks even worse in retrospect. The only team Notre Dame played in the regular season that was ranked going into bowl season was Army, and that was only because new rankings didn't go out after the Black Knights lost to Navy. The Irish have more than proven their mettle in the Playoff itself, as Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State are no joke, but Ohio State has been doing this all year. Notre Dame will be the sixth Playoff team the Buckeyes will have faced this season, seventh if you count Oregon twice. Basically everyone except the joke teams and Georgia. Ohio State's proven that they can lose to the mediocre as well as the great, but this will be the ultimate test for an Irish squad that had the luxury of sleeping through class until December's wake-up call.

9. Goldilocks Defense

The Buckeyes are knocking on the door of their first national title in ten years, but they came agonizingly close just two years ago. Facing off against the #1 team in the country, who would go on to the biggest national championship blowout in history just a week later, the Buckeyes surrendered an eleven-point 4th quarter lead to fall by one point to the national champs. Most emblematic of that collapse was a one-play, 76-yard drive to cut Ohio State's lead to 3. Lathan Ransom fell down in man coverage and there was no other safety to help him. The play served as a great microcosm of the overly aggressive Jim Knowles defense that worked like gangbusters in 2022 until Michigan and Georgia were able to exploit it mercilessly for a combined 86 points. In 2023, the Buckeye defense were more content to play contain and keep everything in front of them, which worked well all season until Missouri and, who else, were able to eventually wear down the Silver Bullets, who forced no turnovers to help out the insufficient Buckeye offenses in those games. This year, Knowles seems to have mixed the formula just right, and suddenly it's like watching the 2019 defense again, with a punishing line and suffocating secondary working hand in hand to create nightmares for opposing teams. Nowhere was this more evident than the crucial penultimate last series against the Longhorns, where the back seven held up the Texas offense just enough to allow the defensive line to stick the last dagger deep in the heart of Texas.

10. One More, Then Forever

If you haven't read Jack Sawyer's goodbye piece about what being a Buckeye means to him, by all means go read that instead of this (although we'd love you to come back and finish this, too). The 2021 Buckeye class features some of the best to ever put on the Scarlet and Gray at their respective positions. And while these players have won 46 games and never lost more than two games in a season (inshallah) or finished outside the top ten, they haven't attained a single one of the team's goals in any of their seasons. If they don't want to leave Ohio State as the most accomplished group of failures in program history, they'll need to take advantage of their one last chance to write their page in the chronicles of Buckeye legends. As mentioned in the schedule analysis above, this Buckeye team has proven it can beat multiple top teams in a season, and they've had to string a few together by the sheer structure of the new Playoff. Time to put it all together and deliver four years' worth of frustration to whatever poor saps stand between them and immortality.

Five Reasons Notre Dame Beats Ohio State

Traditionally, leading up to a national championship game featuring Ohio State, we at Let's Go Bucks! set forth ten reasons why each team could emerge victorious from the season's final clash. This year will be a little different. Stay tuned for ten reasons why Ohio State beats Notre Dame, but the case for the Golden Domers will be limited to five arguments only. No disrespect to the Irish, it's just that their march onward to victory is narrower and comprises fewer paths than the Buckeyes'.

1. No Fly Zone 

Ohio State may feature one of the best one-two punches at running back in the nation, but the Buckeyes continue make their hay through the air, especially in the Playoff. That's bad news when you're facing the nation's #1 pass defense in both success rate and EPA. In contrast to Texas, who also had an elite pass defense and was able to frustrate the Buckeye air attack to an extent, the Irish rely heavily on Cover-1 and other man concepts rather than zone. Time will tell if the Irish secondary can win some one-on-one battles or if this game turns into Rose Bowl II: Lost in Atlanta. It's worth noting that Ohio State is right behind the Irish in pass defense (#2 in success rate and efficiency, #1 in yards per game). But either way, "ND" doesn't stand for "No Defense" anymore.

2. Rush Hour

The Irish superlatives aren't limited to the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame also has the sport's top rushing attack by EPA, although their success rate is a less impressive 45.1%. Their ground game is powered by a true three-pronged attack, as each of QB Riley Leonard and RBs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love have rushed for over 700 yards this season and average over 5 yards per carry. Similarly to Ohio State, Jeremiyah is the standout among the group; you may remember his 98 yard scamper to open the scoring in this year's Playoff (and would have been sufficient to singlehandedly deliver the Irish the victory absent garbage time). The problem is that he, and the entire Notre Dame run game by extension, have been hobbled since being injured in the Georgia game. Love was a singular bright spot in the Penn State game, managing to grind out over 4 yards a carry and a heroic TD run, but the same Penn State rush D that was steamrolled by Henderson, Judkins, and Howard stood strong against the nation's ostensibly best rushing attack. Love sill need to be at his best for the Irish to have their best opportunities to move the ball.

3. Turnover a New Shamrock

How do you keep up with a team with a fast firing offense? Steal a few possessions back via turnover. Nobody does this better than the Irish, who have absconded with 32 total takeaways in 15 games. That's one better than Texas, who played 16, and thirteen better than Ohio State. And both teams have lost the same number of turnovers in return. Ohio State has managed to best, and even turn(over) the tables on, some of the other top turnover margin teams in Indiana and Iowa, and the aforementioned ball-hawking Texas. But the Buckeyes have two losses this year, and they turned the ball over twice in both.

4. You Guys Don't Give Up

After comfortably controlling each of its first two Playoff games, the Irish found themselves in a 10-0 hole to Penn State that persisted until a field goal closing the half chipped into Penn State's lead. Notre Dame fought back, gained the lead, lost the lead again, and rallied once more to win on a field goal in the final seconds. Ohio State fought through a similar deficit against Penn State but never trailed in the second half. The Buckeyes haven't trailed in the Playoff for a second, and in their two losses, they never trailed to Oregon by more than 1 point or Michigan by more than 7. If this game comes down to the wire, one of these teams hasn't cracked since a bizarre giveaway game against Northern Illinois.

5. Heart of a Buckeye

Of course, this culture starts at the top, and the Irish seem to have finally found their man in former Buckeye linebacker Marcus Freeman. Freeman's had his share of speed bumps, including headscratching losses to Marshall, Stanford, and Northern Illinois. But he's led the Irish to their first major bowl wins since their New Year's 1994 consolation prize against Texas A&M. Brian Kelly was a step in the right direction, putting Notre Dame firmly back in national title contention after wandering the desert under Weis, Willingham, Davie, and even late Lou Holtz. But Freeman has proven that Notre Dame's record is not just the product of a weak regular season schedule; the Irish have hung with and dispatched the best the Playoff has to offer.

Week 18: Ewers Discretion Advised

Standings:

1.) Draper 51-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 50-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 49-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 46-23 (1-13 upset)

You wanted championship access for the little guy? You wanted Cinderella stories of the underdog snakebiting a top dog on the way to the top? Then you came to the wrong place; in all the storied 11-year history of the College Football Playoff, there haven't been a more blue-blooded final four than you'll see this year. Enjoy the combined wisdom of the Let's Go Bucks! crew before you sit glued to your TV screen like Stu Pickles.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 9

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: As the semis were set, I was pretty confident in my picks for the title, but continuing to look at the Orange Bowl, I've become more conflicted.  Let me be clear: I don't think either of these teams are near the level of Ohio State or Oregon (or maybe Texas).  Notre Dame was one of the hottest teams entering the playoff and have continued their pace, but Penn State has looked good as well.  The issue was the competition.  Notre Dame dumped an overrated IU team (but the final score was closer than expected) and outclassed a depleted UGA team by killing it in the middle 8 with turnovers and special teams.  Penn State easily dispatched SMU and played a solid game against Boise State, but does anyone really care? This game is similar to the Sugar Bowl in which I expect a low scoring ugly slugfest.  Both defenses are stout with questionable offenses.  Love is banged up for the Irish, but Abdul Carter being a question mark evens the score.  Both QB's are fine, but nothing special.  After all is said and done, I going to stick with my initial instinct with the Irish (although I'm getting little voices telling me to be careful).  James Franklin always wins when favored and always loses when an underdog (last win as an underdog was 2021 and before that was 2016 vs OSU).  I guess it's a foregone conclusion... Here come the Irish.  ND: 20--PSU:17
Hoying: As we all predicted preseason, Notre Dame and Penn State are on the doorstep of a national championship appearance. And they’re doing it with some of the poorest QB play in the Playoff (Will Howard haters at FOX Sports notwithstanding). Fortunately, each team would rather run the ball than throw, Penn State because they have no receivers and Notre Dame because…er…their quarterback can’t throw. Riley Leonard can run though, and he put up a tidy 80 yards to pace the Irish against Georgia in the quarterfinals. Whom did Penn State play in the quarterfinals again? Oh, right, nobody, just like the nobody they played in the first round. Now that could work to their advantage, as they haven’t had to give any of their playoff prep away in snoozers against SMU and Boise State (no, the Lions were never going to lose that game). But I still don’t have a great deal of faith in James Franklin. Beating SMU and Boise isn’t beating the allegations, as the only two games Frames played this year on the level of Notre Dame were the two that Penn State lost. One because they couldn’t move the ball (Ohio State), and the other because they couldn’t stop their opponent (Oregon). Expect this game to look a lot more like the former than the latter, as ND continues to pitch gem after gem on defense (except against USC, but whoopsie, guess who also gave up a million points to the Trojans). Drew Allar simply doesn’t have it in him or the support around him to put the team on his shoulders with the game on the line, and when all else fails, sit back and wait for James Franklin to do something stupid. At least once this Thursday, expect the Hill Kitties to make those Georgia idiots who jumped offsides on Notre Dame’s fake punt look like the finest football minds this side of Let’s Go Bucks! ND: 24—PSU: 20
Schweinfurth: This game is two teams who play great defense, and two teams who play miserable offense. Both teams have good running backs and questionable quarterbacks. Penn State at least has Tyler Warren. Coaching advantage has to go to Notre Dame because James Franklin pees his pants in big games. **whispers** This is a big game. This feels like a 60 minute rock fight. Notre Dame lives off of turnovers. They turned Georgia over to death in the Sugar Bowl. I expect more of the same. Irish win. ND: 17--PSU: 14
Seeberg:  The year is 2019.  You're at Vegas and a hot streak at the blackjack table left you itching to put a few big chips on a college football bet.  Then you see a futures bet that makes you laugh out loud:  James Franklin wins two or more playoff games in his career at Penn State.  +50000.  You chuckle again.  Man, this is how Vegas makes their money eh?  I have no idea if that was a real bet on the board back then, but it sure sounds about right.  Somehow, Penn State managed to win TWO playoff games.  That said, both teams were outside the top 10 so, really, given their cupcake draw, it's not particularly surprising.  Things get markedly more difficult for Franklin when he plays a top 5 opponent, and Notre Dame fits that bill.  To me, Notre Dame feels like Ohio State lite.  Very good but not great defense and, at least in the regular season, very good but not great offense.  Ohio State, however, has risen almost exponentially on offense and stayed elite on D, and Notre Dame still looks like, well, Notre Dame.  Very good defense, and just enough points to make it hard for teams to hang for four quarters.  Meanwhile, Penn State was spotted 10 points at home against the Buckeyes this year and managed a whopping 1 FG the rest of the way.  Scoring 6 offensive points against the best defense you saw all year is a pretty poor omen (though they inexplicably dropped 37 on Oregon- which is when the Ducks' alarm bells should've sounded before playing the scarlet and gray again).  Both teams will struggle to score, which is a product of ND's middling offense and PSU's awful offensive coaching.  It feels like a very similar game to the OSU/PSU tilt in Happy Valley this year, so why not the same score.  Notre Dame advances to the title game.  ND: 20--PSU: 13

FRIDAY, JANUARY 10

Cotton Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Another massive match for 2 teams that have been in the top 5 all season.  The Buckeyes are playing at a clip that the world hasn't seen in a long time.  If they continue this dominance, the CFP is over as no one is touching this squad at this level.  However, Texas has the athletes and coaches to muddy the waters.  Everyone is focused on the explosive Buckeye offense, but the real accolades should fall on Jim Knowles and the Silver Bullets who have been untouchable.  While Jeremiah Smith is a certified cheat code, Howard is playing off the charts, Egbuka, Tate, and Scott are spreading the field, and Judkins/Henderson are providing the 1-2 punch; the defense has stifled everything since the first meeting with Oregon in October.  Texas's defense will have some wrinkles for the Buckeyes as this is one of the best defenses we've faced all year, but I don't see how the Horns are going to outscore this juggernaut.  The path to success for the Horns is turnovers and special teams with a little Sark magic sprinkled on top.  If the Bucks play sound/turnover free football and Day/Kelly keep the defense on their heels in both the run and passing game, I just don't see the Longhorns scoring enough to match.  Ewers has had moments of brilliance but also some real headscratchers.  I wouldn't want to need my best game of the year against this ball-hawking defense.  Downs and Simon will remove the running game so if the corners can hold up, it should be the Buckeyes headed to Atlanta.  OSU: 30--UT: 13
Hoying: Is it possible for a top-five matchup against a team that was an unfavorable overtime period away from being the SEC champion to be a letdown game? The Buckeyes are fresh off of goosing the #1 team in the country, and while the advanced stats still like Texas a bit more than Oregon, it almost feels like the denouement to the 2024 season is already setting in. I’m sure that anyone in Buckeye Nation who remembers Quinn Ewers skipping town (especially Rick Ricart) doesn’t need any extra motivation, as his departure destroyed our post-CJ succession plan and made us rely on the merely very good Kyle McCord and a transfer QB. But that transfer QB has seen Texas before, and he hasn’t beaten them in 4 tries, including an overtime thriller last season. Howard has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and he’s been given the green light to throw it up to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka wherever they are on the field, single, double, or triple covered. Ryan Day has seized back control of the offense after the Michigan debacle and it’s going to be all gas no brakes from here on out. Texas is one of the few teams in the country with the horses in the secondary to make Howard pay on an errant throw, but then they’ll be faced with the problem of what to do when Quinn Ewers has the ball. The Longhorns’ scripted drives to start their two Playoff games have been works of art, but the Horns got bogged down against Arizona State until some 4th and 13 magic in overtime saved their season. If the Silver Bullet defense that suffocated Oregon shows up Friday night, Texas will struggle to get anything going. Look for some more spilling and killing, Caleb Downs roaming the middle of the field like Darth Maul waiting for Qui-Gon Jinn, and Jack Sawyer fighting off bear hug after bear hug to make Ewers’ day a living nightmare. There’s no Quan Cosby to bail you out late this time. OSU: 31—UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I feel pretty confident going into this game. The shackles have come off the offense and the defensive line is playing at an elite level. This feels like the 2014 team all over again. Big plays on offense with a suffocating defense. Jack Sawyer seems possessed. JJ Smith can't be covered. The running backs are hitting big chunk runs. The team we've seen the last two weeks is unbeatable. Seriously. The Rose Bowl could have been so much worse if Downs catches any of 3 (!) potential INTs. I don't really know what Texas tries to stop. Their only hope is to control the line of scrimmage with 4 lineman and pray that holds. Defensively, Knowles just need to keep calling the same plan and get home on Ewers. Hit him early and often. I'm sure Texas will try to go with the quick hitters to keep him upright, but Downs was all over that against Oregon. Ohio State is a pissed off team. Good luck America. OSU: 38--UT: 20
Seeberg: I am now, after two near-perfect playoff performances, 100% convinced that Ryan Day was doing his best Muhammad Ali impression all season long.  Playing rope a dope.  Milking the play clock, limiting the plays and the physical toll on his team.  Rotating lots of guys, even defensively the second half of the year.  All that just to peak at the right time and come out of the corner swinging, and right now, you can't argue with it.  The horrid game against TTUN is a product of his Cooper-like unfamiliarity with it being an out-of-Midwesterner.  Cooper's teams, however, also frequently laid eggs in bowl games, and this is clearly not the case with Day as he's already won 3 playoff games and a Rose Bowl.  The Longhorns roll in with a great defense and an...offense?  Quinn Ewers may have been a perfect-rated prospect, but he's not progressed nearly as much as most thought.  Perhaps he should've stayed in Columbus?  Regardless, he'll have to content with Jim Knowles' D that's calling all the right numbers.  The only clear mistake in his game plan against Tennessee was using a DE, usually Tuimoluau, as a spy against their mobile QB.  Simon took on those duties and was masterful, rarely letting Gabriel escape the pocket and closing like a freight train on his two sacks.  Ewers is far less mobile than Gabriel or Iamaleava, so that shouldn't be a concern, meaning Knowles can either bring 5 or drop 7.  Scary prospect either way.  Personally I'd love to see a zone blitz where the DE drops in front of a slant route.  Worked pretty well against Arkansas in "the game that didn't count because tattoos" and again in the Sugar Bowl against Bama where Steve Miller took it back to the house.  Either way, even if this performance is only near-near-perfect, both sides of the ball (and even 2/2 on field goals last week woohoo!)  are just clicking too well.  Bucks coast to the natty.  OSU: 38--UT: 23

Week 17: Ducks N' Roses

Standings:

1.) Draper 47-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 46-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 45-20 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 42-23 (1-13 upset)

Well, the Committee did its job, slotting four chumps into the road Playoff spots, to be the sacrifices upon the gridiron altars of the premier temples of college footballdom. Now it's put-up or shut-up time for the top teams as we close in this year's 4-team Playoff core.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31

Fiesta Bowl: Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions vs. Boise State Broncos

Draper: This game is quite intriguing for the spread.  I truly believe that PSU is mid and Allar isn't the guy to lead them to the promised land.  Their defense is very good, especially against the run....but the Broncos have Jeanty which is off his Heisman snub.  Will he be able to put on a show against a top defense? He looked great against Oregon and the entire MWC, but the Lions will be a handful.  I do expect Jeanty to make some hay in this game, but the mismatch is on the other side.  PSU's rushing attack and the Tyler Warren getting the ball in creative ways from Andy Kolnicki will be enough to send Cinderella home in a surprisingly close game.  Franklin gets another 'big win' against a 'top 10' team.  PSU: 30--BSU:20
Hoying: These teams strike me as very similar. No matter how many glow-ups Drew Allar gets, he never makes a difference game for the Lions. Penn State refers to rely on its running game, and while Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are more than competent, they're facing off against the nation's best RB and arguably best player, who's been nursing a chip on his shoulder since getting snubbed for the Heisman a month ago. Penn State's run defense is also a little softer than in years past, as both Oregon and a Josh Simmons-less Ohio State were able to find ample running room to salt those games away when needed. Boise State has faced a squishy-soft schedule, even by Mountain West standards, but Jeanty was able to run all over the Ducks in the Broncos' premier matchup of the season. Of course, as we saw a few weeks ago, Allen and Singleton were able to have the same success against Oregon on the ground. I think the question here is whether Penn State's edge on defense, which carried the day in an easy opening round cruise against SMU, can make up for Boise's one man wrecking crew in the backfield. I think it is, but by a closer margin than the experts think. PSU: 27--BSU: 17
Schweinfurth: Man Penn State has an "easy road" here. Could I see Ashton Jeanty running all over the Kitties? Yes, I can, but that defensive front 7 is downright nasty. As long as no one tells Big Game James this is a playoff game, they should be fine. Maybe the Broncos should wear Scarlet and Gray? PSU: 21--Boise: 7
Seeberg:  I had very little faith in the Lions despite their significant talent gap over SMU for one reason:  The bald man that roams their sidelines.  Even he couldn't derail that easy win, however.  Is Boise a step up?  I'm not sure, but they will have the best player on the field in should-have-won-the-Heisman Ashton Jeanty.  It's no secret what the Broncos want to do, and they've done it, even against big time competition as Jeanty went for nearly 300 yards of total offense against Oregon early this year- a game they only lost by a touchdown.  I don't expect the Boise D to hold up over four quarters against Penn State's superior size and skill.  The question is whether or not Penn State will be able to force Boise to be one-dimensional through the air on offense.  My guess is '"just enough" and the Nittanys pull away late.  PSU: 31--Boise: 20

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1

Peach Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Draper: On the other hand, I don't see this one being as close.  ASU stormed back to take the Big 12 after being left for dead early, but will the Skattebo heroics be enough to dethrone the Horns? I'm guessing no.  Texas has taken care of everyone not named Georgia this year, but I don't think they've been as dominant as advertised.  One area that Texas has excelled in is defense.  I expect them to bottle up the Sun Devil rushing attack and win a slugfest.  Athlete differential is too much.  UT: 31--ASU: 17
Hoying: There is a fraud among the eight remaining teams in the inaugural 12-team College Football. No, not the Blue Turf Smurfs or the Sun Devils; those teams are who we thought they were. And it's not Georgia; they'll go as far as their fresh-faced backup QB will take them. It's the erstwhile Big 12 also-ran Texas Longhorns. Since Quinn Ewers took a curious step backwards in his third tour of duty in Austin, the Horns have been forced to increasingly rely on their defense. This approach darn near won them the SEC in their first go-around (similar to another Playoff team). But then they got a nice cushy home game against the lowest ranked team in the Playoff, and they gave up 412 yards to the Clemson Tigers of all teams. Yes, Clemson, the team that squeaked out an ACC championship, the kings of the conference that's been stepping on rake after rake after rake in this bowl season. For what it's worth, Arizona State is probably as bad as (or worse than) Clemson. They're largely dependent on star running back Cam Skattebo, though not quite to the extent of Boise. Regardless, I see this as largely playing out the same way as the Fiesta Bowl: stop the run and the big boy team wins; otherwise, look out, upset city. Here, as there, expect the favorite to survive for at least one more round. UT: 31--ASU: 23
Schweinfurth: Arizona State won the Big 12. Yay! The true rulers of the Big 12 are here now. The Longhorns did enough to beat a Clemson team last time out, but it was mostly under control. I could see the same this time out, but the Sun Devils are just out matched here. UT: 35--ASU: 14
Seeberg: The Sun Devils are, appropriately enough, hot.  Cruising to wins versus all the ranked adversaries the Big 12 could muster.  The Longhorns struggled, even defensively, against Clemson, which certainly raises an eyebrow or two.  The talent disparity is wider here, but Arizona State is legitimately playing really good ball right now.  However, I have to think that, not unlike PSU/Boise, the Texas defense is good enough to limit the Sun Devils' dynamic running back and force them to throw the ball more than they would like.  The Longhorns do just enough to get another ranked win to bolster their resume for 2025 (because we all know they do that whether they admit it or not).  UT: 27--ASU: 20

Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: This is a super interesting matchup.  UGA has been a dynasty for going on 4 years but they seem to be running on fumes.  The defense remains legit, but the QB play this year for the Dawgs has not been good enough. As we move on to Gunner Stockton, I don't think it's AS big of a dropoff as we first thought due to the time to prepare and the fact that Beck isn't great, but it will be tough to keep up.  Expect a LOT of running and punting as both defenses are very good.  I've believed in UGA all year even without a QB, but this might be one step too far.  Riley Leonard gives the Irish an edge at QB in both talent and experience.  Kirby will confuse him with some stout defenses, but it won't be enough (unless the stripes intervene).  Honestly, there is no outcome that would surprise me (close or blowout either way), but I'm picking the Irish to advance.  ND: 20--UGA: 17
Hoying: What happens when a team that's relied heavily on its passing game all season suddenly loses its star QB? Would it help if I said they were facing the nation's top pass defense? The warning signs were there after the Dawgs got blasted in Oxford, and I fear that the dynasty may finally be over, or at least on hiatus. Yeah, Georgia didn't win the natty last year either (grrrrrrrrr) but I feel confident they would have capped off a threepeat if the 12-team field had been implemented just one season ahead of schedule (as long as they could avoid facing Bama again). But now Carson Beck is out of the picture, and the Bulldogs' hopes and dreams are resting on the arm of a QB with all of 20 attempts against FBS competition this season. And don't talk to me about Cardale Jones; the Dawgs don't have an Ezekiel Elliott to put the team on his back and carry them to the promised land. Riley Leonard isn't any prize either but Notre Dame isn't a pass-first team. The Irish choke out their opponents and do their damage on the ground. The D pitched a gem against this year's upstart wonder team, Indiana, and the game was largely over by the time Jeremiyah Love broke free for a 98 yard run. Georgia's D is good enough to keep them in this one, and a nice cocktail of turnovers and tackles for loss could even brew up a victory for the Dawgs, but this is the moment Marcus Freeman has been pushing toward ever since Ryan Day ended his first season before it began. The Irish aren't going home just yet. ND: 24--UGA: 17
Schweinfurth: Notre Dame looked the part against the Hoosiers. The D was downright nasty and the offense did just enough against a physical Indiana front. Georgia has had some time to get healthy, but they are breaking in a new QB and there are a lot of questions around the Bulldogs team. This nightcap should be a defensive beatdown by both teams. May the best defense win. ND: 17--UGA: 14
Seeberg: The line for this one is nearly down to a pick 'em.  However, the Bulldogs are still favored, which is baffling to me.  Notre Dame has been a juggernaut in the back half of the season, albeit against a mediocre schedule.  Still, they appear to be peaking at the proper time, unlike Cooper's squads that typically peaked in late September.  Georgia, meanwhile, is mediocre at protecting the ball (55th in turnover margin) and ND is elite (3rd).  Toss in a backup QB with minimal experience for good measure, and it's just not a recipe that seems to favor the dogs.  The golden domers get one step closer to the golden lipstick trophy. ND: 20--UGA: 13

Rose Bowl: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: Which team enters Pasadena? The fast and loose squad that looked great in Eugene (on offense) and dismantled the Vols or the tight amateurs that pooped all over the field on Nov. 30? If you look at it closely, the Bucks have the advantage at nearly every position matchup.  It comes down to 2 major points: 1) do the Bucks come out on offense with the killer instinct and take the fight to the Ducks on offense? and 2) Can the defense limit the explosive plays of the Ducks?  My guess is 1) yes and 2) maybe.  The Oregon wide receivers are very good, but I don't expect Burke to get punked as badly as he did in October.  Knowles and the Bullets haven't given up a passing TD since the last meeting and that includes games vs. 3 other playoff teams.  The line play on both sides will be key.  Both teams felt that they got the raw end of the luck battle last time (Oregon: missed int call on first drive/spitting ejection and OSU: bad turnover luck on fumble/stupid lucky onside kick/BS OPI on Smith), but I'd say the 'bad luck' was more heavily in Scarlet and Gray.  If that evens out and there's no home field advantage, I'd say things break for the good guys.  Buckeyes don't end the season on Jan 1 and advance to the semis on the back of Will Howard, a surprising Oline competent performance (anyone expect that vs. Tennessee?), and a bend don't break defense that does just enough.  OSU: 34--Ore: 24
Hoying: Boy, it sure feels like 2014, doesn't it? No, not just because the Buckeyes are playing Oregon in the Playoff. Rather, we've seen a frustrating loss against a craptastic opponent, the Bucks have secured a rare win over an opponent from the almighty SEC, and, once again, it feels like the true national championship is being played before the scheduled main event. I wasn't sure who would win the 2015 Sugar Bowl between Ohio State and Alabama, but I was pretty confident that whoever survived was going to wipe the floor with the winner of Oregon/Florida State. I'm getting the same sense this season. Texas is a fraud, Georgia is the most vulnerable it's been since lockdown, Notre Dame hasn't been championship caliber since the days of Ryan Day's archnemesis, and we've already seen both of these teams handle Penn State. OK, but if we're going to write off Penn State, shouldn't Ohio State suffer the same fate? After all, the Bucks have lost to the Ducks already, and that was with Jordan Burch missing from Oregon's D-line and Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin both present for OSU. Why should we expect a different result now? Well, as I said last week, Knowles took the Oregon loss personally, and the Silver Bullets have looked as good as I've ever seen them in the weeks since. It appears Chip had a similar reaction to getting stonewalled by Michigan, as the Buckeye juggernaut was back in full force against a very stingy Tennessee defense. After seeing what Penn State was able to do against the Ducks after getting completely stonewalled against the post-Oregon Buckeye defense, I have confidence in the Buckeyes' ability to have success similar to their first outing. That puts the game squarely in the hands of Knowles and the Bullets. Led by Jack Sawyer's efforts, the Buckeyes returned their entire starting defense from 2023 (minus the mediocre linebackers) and added the nation's best defensive player in Caleb Downs. The time to deliver is now or never. The first time these teams met, Dan Lanning had to dig into his bag of tricks to get more scoring opportunities, throwing deep for the first time in Dillon Gabriel's Oregon career and stealing possessions via a quasi-onside kick and a Quinshon Judkins fumble. The gloves are off now. It's strength on strength. Outside the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium, with a hungry defense only getting better week to week and hell-bent on revenge, I think the Buckeyes can get it done. It won't be easy, and there won't be any time to relax after clearing this highest of hurdles, but everyone's preseason championship darling finally shows what a $20MM roster and a $10MM coach can do at peak performance. OSU: 28--UO: 23
Schweinfurth: THAT Buckeyes team is unstoppable and Ohio State owes Oregon one here. Between all the weirdness of the game in Eugene and the messed up end of the game, this feels personal. Denzel Burke has even said as much. The Bucks HAVE to get home on defense. Part of the reason Burke got torched was the lack of pressure on Gabriel. The D line has looked much more aggressive and the blitz packages have been beautiful. Oregon saw a shell of what is coming on Wednesday. Judkins isn't going to have a bum hand and have the ball ripped out again. The special teams won't be caught by surprise with an onside kick. Dan Lanning can't exploit a rulebook loophole this time. Bucks win and put the beating on the Ducks they should have gotten in October. This one feels personal. OSU: 35--UO: 21
Seeberg: To be perfectly honest, I do like that this iteration of the Buckeyes gets another shot at the Ducks to right October's wrongs.  However, I'm not too happy that it's in the bleeping quarterfinals.  The winner will be a significant favorite to win it all, and that's a lot of pressure.  But first things first.  What needs to happen here?  A complete game like the Bucks played against the Vols and there isn't a team in the country that can hang with the scarlet and gray for four quarters, not even the vaunted Ducks.  Expecting another near-perfect performance is maybe a bit much.  The Bucks got home with just 4 linemen a LOT against Tennessee, but we saw how well that (didn't) work in Autzen.  Knowles & Co. will need to cook up some exotic looks and unique blitzes to rattle Gabriel, who was on point back in October.  Speaking of on point, Will Howard looked excellent too, save for a poorly timed slide.  There's no reason to believe he can't replicate that performance.  The O-line struggled to adapt on the fly, however, with the loss of Josh Simmons early in that game, and the run game suffered.  But now the line has been reasonably reshuffled and has gained reps and confidence.  The run game needs to be just serviceable enough, and the game plan needs to mirror Tennessee's:  PASS to set up the RUN, not the other way around.  The tempo was a nice touch, too.  Smith and Egbuka need at LEAST 20 targets combined.  Moving JJ around was a nice touch in the Vols' game as well.  These are all things that, I believe, the OSU coaching staff and players are capable of.  It will come down to the coaches not overthinking/getting conservative, and the players to execute.  Oh, and those sweet Rose Bowl helmet stripes are undefeated, figuratively and literally.  Let's keep it that way, and Let's Go Bucks!  OSU: 35--UO: 25

Week 16: We Have Playoffs at Home

Standings:

1.) Draper 43-18 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 42-19 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 42-19 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 38-23 (1-13 upset)

After perhaps the most maddening one-year absence in the history of the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes make their triumphant return within the friendly and frozen confines of Ohio Stadium. Other teams will be shivering across the college football landscape (except Clemson, lucky you) as eight teams jockey for the four remaining spots in the quarterfinal bowl games.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20

Indiana Hoosiers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Notre Dame enters the playoffs as, perhaps, the hottest team outside of Eugene while Indiana failed their one test on the year.  However, these teams have quite similar resumes.  Neither played a schedule with any meat, but while Notre Dame has a nice win (not great) @A&M, they also have the bad loss home vs. NIU.  Riley Leonard is managing the game well but the ground game is the hallmark for Freeman's Irish.  Indiana will go as far as Kurtis Rourke will bring them.  They're playing with house money (no matter what Cignetti says).  They should come out with nothing to lose, but the elements will work against them. The snow will make the air game a challenge which is a problem for the Crimson.  I like the Irish to ground and pound against a decent IU defense, but it won't be enough.  The Irish move on.  IU: 17--ND: 27
Hoying: Indiana should send a nice fruit basket to whoever at the Big Ten offices set the schedules for this season. The Hoosiers played zero power conference opponents out of conference, beat one team with a winning record (7-5 Michigan), faced exactly one ranked opponent (Ohio State), got blasted, and waltzed right into a spot in the inaugural 12-team Playoff. Of course, it's not like Notre Dame faced a murderer's row either; their only opponent currently ranked is...Army...who just lost to Navy after the last rankings were released. The power of unbalanced schedules. Turning to the game at hand, Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke stands out amid a field of pretty mediocre quarterbacks in this year's Playoff. Unfortunately, that plays right into ND's hands, as they have one of the top pass defenses in college football alongside Texas and Ohio State. Speaking of Ohio State, you may remember the Silver Bullets making Rourke's life absolutely miserable. Notre Dame doesn't quite have the sack attack that the Buckeyes can provide, but they still have one of the better D-lines around. As for the Irish attack, QB Riley Leonard has been getting somewhat better as the season progresses, but Notre Dame is primarily a run-first team, with the triple threat of Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Leonard himself leading the way. Indiana's defense has been solid; even Ohio State only put up 316 yards (although a punt block and punt return TD tend to limit your yardage opportunities). But I think this game is decided on the other side of the ball. If Rourke is comfortable, Indiana will be able to move the ball at will like they did for the first 9 games of their season. If Freeman can dial up some pressure, Notre Dame should be able to do just enough with their ground game to pull out a W. IU: 24--ND: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana is a great story. They came from absolutely nowhere to become Google famous. Here's the thing, they dodged Penn State and Oregon and had an 11-1 record to show for it. That one loss, yea the one top 5 team they actually played. Notre Dame has been a buzz saw since losing to NIU. Marcus Freeman has his guys playing with bad intentions. The weather may be a factor here, but the Domers are so much better on both lines. Notre Dame puts Indiana back in its place. IU: 17--ND: 24
Seeberg:  Honestly?  It's a darn shame this game didn't happen the first 4-5 weeks of the year.  IU came out of nowhere as this year's college football darling, save for a whooping in the 'Shoe.  The golden domers came out of the gates hot with a still-decent win at Texas A&M week 1, then meandered for a few weeks before finally hitting the gas pedal and playing up to their level the last half of the year.  Indiana might actually become a football state if the Hoosiers pull this one off, but I just don't see it.  The path for ND is clear to the semis, and Freeman knows he can't waste this opportunity.  ND pulls away late.  IU: 20--ND: 31

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

Draper: Another game in which the home team has everything to lose and little to gain.  SMU, like IU, is just happy to be here while the Lions know that a loss here would continue the narrative (truth?) about their lack of taking care of business in the big game.  PSU played their best game of the year in the B1G championship but still came up short.  SMU can stop the run, but PSU's explosion against Oregon came on the ground.  I think we will see a mismatch of athletes on the field and the Mustangs will have some struggles in the cold weather.  Once again, the better conditioned, bigger athletes control the line of scrimmage and prove too much for the newcomer.  It will be scary (hilarious?) early as it looks like James Franklin coughs up another big game, but the Nittany Lions pull out the win and advance.  SMU: 17--PSU: 24
Hoying: And here we have the second Big Ten team to be gifted a Playoff spot, but Santa really went all out under the tree in Happy Valley. Astoundingly, the Lions managed to parlay a loss in the Big Ten Championship into a spot in the only CFP quadrant with zero power conference champions. These two deserve each other; the best win either one has is...SMU beating Louisville? Penn State beating Illinois? Anyway, somebody has to win this one and face the juggernaut that is Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Drew Allar has been among the nation's most efficient QBs, even with no wide receiver corps to speak of, although he couldn't really get anything going against either Ohio State or Oregon. The running game sure worked against the Ducks though, as both Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton were able to top 100 yards in the B1G Championship game. SMU is no great shakes in the running game, and they've been working against much more forgiving run defenses in the ACC. I don't see any need to overthink this one. Yes, James Franklin has been known to make some...questionable decisions in Penn State's biggest games, but hosting the Playoff's gotta-include-another-team-to-fill-out-the-bracket team barely qualifies as a big game for PSU. Let's see what this brick wall run D can do against Ashton Jeanty on New Year's Eve. SMU: 20--PSU: 27
Schweinfurth: I feel like SMU could shock some people here. Penn State doesn't blow anyone out. SMU has some good momentum coming off the loss in the ACC Championship game (odd to say that). Penn State has a difference maker in Tyler Warren. He can be shut down (see Caleb Downs), but SMU doesn't have that guy. The Kitties move on. SMU: 14--PSU: 17
Seeberg:  I...have a weird feeling about this one.  I just don't see these games going all chalk, someone is gonna get got.  I don't want it to be my Buckeyes, so this one is the one I have my eye on.  Penn State's proclivity to avoid testing themselves whenever possible (seriously, look at their perennial non-con schedule it's a joke) is a problem.  They acquitted themselves well offensively against Oregon but absolutely could not get off the field.  SMU is built like Oregon-lite.  On paper, Penn State is better.  The game is in Happy Valley, but James Franklin's bemused indifference may very well prove to be the difference as the Lions squander a golden road to the semis.  SMU: 24--PSU: 23

Clemson Tigers @ Texas Longhorns

Draper: Our 3rd 'happy to be here' team goes into Darrell K Royal with nothing to lose (see a theme?).  Clemson was dead to rights until pulling out a miracle appearance and win in the ACC Championship.  Dabo pulls more magic out of a hat than he has a right to, but it's tough to see it continuing here.  The Horns defense has been spectacular and I don't see Cade Klubnik taking the crown.  Can the UT QB (whoever it is) move the ball consistently? Against the Tigers, I say yes.  I don't expect this one to be terribly close without more voodoo.  Clem: 13--UT: 27
Hoying: Charity cases, charity cases everywhere. You thought Indiana, Notre Dame, SMU, and Penn State had easy paths to the Playoff? Let's add Clemson to the list. One win over a team with a winning record (7-5 Pitt) and three losses overall bought them a ticket to the ACC Championship where they won on a 16-second drive after a game tying FG by SMU. Texas, meanwhile, managed to carve out a relatively light schedule even within the mighty SEC but couldn't get by big bad Georgia either in Austin or Atlanta. At least they got a nice soft path to the Playoff semifinals through Clemson and Arizona freaking State. The Horns have one of the top defenses in the country, probably the only one that challenges Silver Bullet supremacy. The offense is...OK; Quinn Ewers seems to have taken a step back from last season, to the point that some of the Burnt Orange faithful have been clamoring for Next Big Thing Arch Manning to take over the starting role. Clemson might actually have the edge at QB in this one as Cade Klubnik continues to improve (amazing what not having DJU can do for you). But that's where the advantages end. Klubnik isn't going to be able to move the ball against this Texas defense and while Ewers may be frustrated from time to time, the Horn attack is balanced enough to get the job done against a more questionable Clemson defense. The Tigers fall to 0-3 against the SEC this season. Clem: 10--UT: 20
Schweinfurth: Clemson's D line is pretty good. Texas has a pretty good defense in general. They really don't give much up. This will truly come down to which Texas offense shows up. Is it the offense that Ewers commands and dominates, or does Texas hem and haw between Manning and Ewers. It may not matter much here, but if could lead to issues for the second game. Clem: 9--UT: 21
Seeberg:  Remember when expanding the playoffs meant we'd get to see different teams?  Oops.  Dabo and Co. snuck in as the 12 seed and their reward is a great(?) Texas team.  Honestly losing to Georgia twice is forgivable, but losing to their backup QB (for a quarter and a half anyway) does raise an eyebrow or two.  Quinn Ewers has been good but surprisingly not elite this season.  Still the Longhorns D might be the only one in the playoffs as good as the silver bullets, and it's hard to imagine Dabo's old school offense mustering enough points to stay in this one for four quarters.  Don't adjust your TVs, whole lotta shades of orange all around, but the burnt-sienna style takes the day.  Clem: 13--UT: 24

Tennessee Volunteers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: How do the Buckeyes want to be remembered? The team that suffered one of the (if not the) worst loss in OSU history or as national champions? This year will forever have a stain from the final regular season contest, but the end has yet to be written.  The game will come down to one main element: will the Buckeyes come out loose with no regrets or tight and scared to lose? Yes, the offensive line struggled against the Wolverine front and Tennessee is just as stout (not up the middle), but will the last time they took the field be a galvanizing force or a fear inducing memory? If the Buckeyes play their game and utilize the weapons effectively, it really shouldn't be that close.  Tennessee has a very good defense, but their offense leaves much to the imagination.  Yes, they beat Bama, but watching that game showed the Tide beating themselves.  OSU is more than capable of beating themselves (grrrrr....) but if they can avoid tripping over their own feet and execute cleanly, there isn't a better team in the country.  Here's my projection: Howard plays a good game (not up to the Oregon game but far better than the atrocity in Nov), the receivers actually become part of the gameplan, and the running game on the edge breaks some big runs.  On the defensive side, the Vols will break a few runs and hit Squirrel White for a few infuriating 3rd down conversions, but the bend don't break nature of the Bullets will be the difference.  The MVP of the game will be a toss up between Jeremiah Smith on a few amazing catches or Emeka Egbuka balling out on a consistent basis.  If Howard is just 'good', Bucks move on to the rematch in Pasadena.  UT: 13--OSU: 24
Hoying: Good luck figuring out this team after their last two performances. Are we going to see the Buckeyes that laid the hammer on a top five team, or the one that couldn't get out of first gear against the most mid Michigan since the Brady Hoke era? My guess is "no" on both counts. The game against Indiana was won with a relentless pass rush and essentially two TDs on special teams. Don't count on Caleb Downs to house another punt (although it would be nice not to let them bounce for 30 yards) but he should be able to do anything else the Buckeyes expect from him. Heck, he got his first interception of the season against the hated maize and blue to gift wrap a Buckeye possession in the red zone. The Buckeyes were as close to automatic as you can get in the red zone all year before getting 10 points out of 5 trips in the Michigan game. The good news is that I don't think our offense can possibly look as bad as it did in the Buckeyes' last outing. The Buckeye O essentially did exactly as much, no more, no less, that they needed to lose. You can (and should) crap on the play calling, but all those runs up the middle? Half of them were runs outside that were poorly blocked or turned back inside by mistake by Judkins and Henderson. You wanted to pass the ball more? Howard had by far his worst day in the scarlet and gray, giving away 7 points to Michigan and taking another likely 7 off the board by throwing behind an Egbuka with room to work inside. If Howard just tucks and runs on every called pass, Michigan probably fails to put enough offense together to get the W. Then again, any plans to run Howard were scrambled when he took a big hit in the first half, putting the kid gloves back on the QB run game in the Ryan Day offense. The good news is that from this point on, every game is the last game of the year. We aren't getting a chance to skate by a cupcake in the first round like we all thought after the Indiana game. Jim Knowles took the Oregon game personally, and the Buckeyes have been lights out on defense since, even to the point of making heroic play after heroic play against the team up north to desperately try to jump-start the offense. I think Chip Kelly will take similar lessons from his failure to launch; he's going to pull out all the stops each and every time the Buckeyes are blessed to take the field. You don't have to worry about keeping Will Howard healthy anymore. Speaking of which, with the death roster Ryan Day was able to put together in the offseason, I think most of Buckeye Nation believed we could make a title run just as long as we kept Will Howard upright. But I fear that the more irreplaceable piece was Seth McLaughlin, as evidenced by the consensus All-American honors he earned after taking the field only ten times and the woeful Pro Football Focus grades the interior O-line has earned in his absence. If Ryan Day has any postseason wizardry left, he'll need it to cobble together a workable offensive line after losing the only two bona fide stars we had. Otherwise, look for a repeat of last year's Cotton Bowl. Tennessee has the defense to make Ohio State pay, not quite as good as the Silver Bullets but more than capable of getting opposing offenses out of their groove, especially in the running game. Time to let Howard cook, dial up some pressure against Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava, and bury the mistakes along with our recent history in The Game. Buckeyes take a close one and move on to what may be the most consequential game of the entire Playoff. UT: 17--OSU: 24

Schweinfurth: Man, I don't have a good feeling about this game. Maybe it's the playcalling from the TUN game. Maybe it's the offensive line or even Ryan Day's elite pucker ability. Seriously, how many diamonds has his butt made the last 4 years. I heard Tennessee described as "a better version of Michigan." I guess the good news is that they wear orange and white and not maize and blue? Look, let it rip. At this point, the Buckeyes have nothing to lose but pride. I want to see the Ohio State team that showed up against Georgia a few years ago. That Ohio State team wins this game going away. A timid game. Tennessee wins. We will know early which Ryan Day/Chip Kelly we get. I really want another shot at Oregon. UT: 14--OSU: 21
Seeberg:  Heavy sigh.  As nice a consolation prize as a home playoff game is, let's be honest, 10-2 was the absolute floor for this team this season, and we thudded into it spectacularly three weeks ago.  This game gives me a lot of heebie-jeebies.  Tennessee mirrors you-know-who (no, not Voldemort, Day/Cooper's nemesis) in a lot of ways:  very-good-to-great defense, middling-to-lousy offense, reliance on the run game (but with an elite RB), laughably overpaying for a high school QB, comically delusional fanbase, etc.  The only thing that gives me solace is that they won't be coming out of the visitor's tunnel in the southwest corner tomorrow night wearing winged helmets and piss-yellow with navy.  Both of these teams tend to start slow, and if it happens again, the 'Shoe could get ugly in a hurry.  For those who didn't notice.  Ohio State went tempo on two drives against UM, resulting in 10 points- and in case you forgot, 10 points is all the Buckeye offense mustered.  Under NO circumstances can this team wait til the "middle 8" of the game to find its 4th and 5th gear.  Amusingly, they do NOT script plays for...reasons?  And the last game that the opening drive resulted in a TD?  Oregon.  Yes, we lost that one, but certainly not due to the offensive side of the ball.  Oh, and we completely abandoned rotating the D-line against UM, which allowed them to wear us down and create their only drive of consequence late in the 4th to seal the game.  Rotate early, SCORE early, manage to make special teams a wash, and we get another chance at the Ducks.  UT: 17--OSU: 28

Week 15: Day of the Dead

Standings:

1.) Draper 40-17 (2-12 upset)
2.) Hoying 39-18 (3-11 upset)
3.) Seeberg 38-19 (3-11 upset)
4.) Schweinfurth 37-20 (1-13 upset)

Conference championships are nice, and so are big shiny trophies (though not as nice as little shiny pants). But like everything else in the expanded Playoff era, they've become just a means to an end. For the big boys, it's a chance at a first-round bye (unless you'd rather have that golden 5 seed). For the little guys, the Playoff starts one game earlier, with the winner keeping their title hopes alive and the loser looking forward to getting mayo or Pop-Tarts or the armed forces dumped on their heads. 

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7

Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona State Wildcats

Draper: In the crapshoot of all crapshoots...I don't know at all what is going to happen.  Iowa State was the 'best'/'most consistent' team in the conference....until they weren't.  Then ASU came in like gangbusters after being meh to begin the season.  Is momentum a thing? I don't know.  Does anyone really think the winner of this is a threat to win it all? Of course not. But someone is going to the playoff after this fartfest of a Big12 season comes to a close.  The coin says....ride the hot hand.  Sparky yes? ASU: 27--ISU:24
Hoying: Congratulations to the Iowa State Cyclones on their first ever 10-win season! The Cyclones and the Indiana Hoosiers have finally left the ignominious group of Power 4 teams forever stuck in the single digits, leaving poor lonely Vanderbilt to hold that title all alone going forward. Ah, well, they got to 6 wins this year, 10 is surely right around the corner. How did the 'Clones finally break the 10 win barrier? A big part of it was avoiding BYU, Colorado, and, well, Arizona State along the way to a Big 12 title game berth, but ISU has been...OK...on defense, other than getting lit up by Kansas for 45 points. The offense isn't great, QB Rocco Becht is a bit of a bright spot I guess, but ASU has been generally more consistent through the air and on the ground. Sun Devil RB Cam Skattebo went ham against BYU to get Arizona State into a tie for the conference lead, and I'm not sure if Iowa State has the run D to keep him bottled up for 60 minutes. The miracle season rolls on as ASU grabs their first conference title since Jake Plummer met up with Joe Germaine in Pasadena. ASU: 24--ISU: 20
Schweinfurth: I don't have the heart after last week. Iowa State wins. ASU: 21--ISU: 24
Seeberg:  Apologies for the short write ups this week, sick toddler in the house caused lots of chaos. In any event, ISU has their first 10-win season ever- and Iowa-Nebraska still outdrew them in the tv ratings. Fan base just isn’t there, and the Sun Devils, pardon the pun, are too hot right now. ASU: 31—ISU: 23

SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Thank goodness the expanded playoffs has saved us from meaningless games like....UGA @ Texas Part 1 and UGA vs. Texas Part 2.  While it seems like this is a huge titanic struggle for dominance, it really means very little in the grand scheme of things.  UGA needed full on Kansas City treatment by the refs to survive an 8OT thriller in Clean Old-Fashioned Hate while Texas easily dispatched A&M at Kyle Field. While I'm not sold on UGA being the juggernaut everyone says they are, I'm really not sold on the Longhorns body of work this year.  Not to mention they were clobbered by this team at home 1.5 months ago.  It's hard to beat a team twice in a season, but they may need to beat em three times.  Georgia isn't consistent enough at QB, but they have plenty of NFL players ready at any moment.  I expect a repeat of what we saw in Austin.  The Dawgs may be able to lose any given Sat...but they can beat anyone if they roll seven.  UGA: 27--UT:17
Hoying: If you know me, you know I hate rematches in conference title games. But this one presents an interesting knot to unwind. Texas finished a game ahead of everyone else in the SEC, including Georgia. But Georgia beat Texas. And Georgia faced each of the other top contenders in the SEC, while Texas played Texas A&M, and...um...Georgia. So this makes for a great "prove-it" game for Texas. A win would solidly cement them as the 2-seed (or even 1-seed if Oregon loses (they won't, see below)) while a loss would really raise the fraud alert. Carson Beck has been wildly inconsistent this season, but when these two teams met in Austin, he threw two picks in the first half and the Dawgs still went in at the break up 23-0. I'm still not convinced that the Horns can handle a defensive front as nasty as Georgia's (other than Michigan's, aaaaaagggghhh). For Georgia's part, usually Kirby has to manufacture some ridiculous disrespect to get the Bulldogs' to bring their A game, but this time the pundits and bookies are doing it for him as Georgia comes in as the underdawg. Expect to see a better version of Georgia than we've observed over the last month or so. More so the "blowout the other UT" Dawgs than the "go to 8 overtimes with mediocre Georgia Tech" Dawgs. UGA: 24--UT: 20
Schweinfurth: I think Georgia is the better team, but don't have the right QB this year. Texas wins. UGA: 21--UT: 28
Seeberg:  Much has been made of Texas winning just 1 Big 12 title the last decade then immediately making the SEC title game, but they got a seriously soft schedule en route. UGA is far more battle tested and it will show in a closer one than the first time around. UGA: 20—UT: 13

ACC: Clemson Tigers vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs

Draper: Coinflip part Deux of conference championship week.  Not because this is a battle of epic proportions, but because someone's gotta win.  SMU's schedule is paper thin....they've played one game against a decent team (BYU) and lost.  Yeah they won the rest, but against no one (looking at you FSU).  On the other hand, Clemson....ALSO has beaten no one.  In their 2 biggest games, they were curbstomped by UGA and taken down at home by in-state rival in the Palmetto Bowl.  SMU's best win: Louisville? Clemson's best win: Pitt?? I guess??  Oh well.  Clemson has better athletes but I'd venture that the Ponies have a slight coaching edge as Dabo has seeming lost it with the introduction of NIL.  While a SMU loss would add a little intrigue to Selection Sunday, I can't pick the Kitties.  CJK5H.  SMU: 28--Clem: 24
Hoying: It's hard to tell how good any of the teams in the ACC are, when the top teams (SMU, Clemson, and Miami) don't play each other. I have a good sense that Clemson wouldn't do particularly well in the SEC after bookending their conference play with a blowout to Georgia and a loss to South Carolina. SMU apparently wouldn't do great in the...Big 12...with a loss to BYU. This game feels a lot like the SMU-Pitt game earlier this year, just a contest to see who's the bigger poser. It wasn't SMU back then, and I don't think it will be this weekend either. Clemson's been mired in mediocrity ever since Justin Fields' Revenge, and while a favorable schedule and the Miami Tropical Depressions have paved their return to Charlotte, the comeback train ends now. The much longer comeback story of the once literally dead SMU football program finally comes to fruition. SMU: 27--Clem: 20
Schweinfurth: I haven't watched any SMU. I don't like Clemson. SMU: 31--Clem: 21
Seeberg:  SMU appears to be for real, and this one would go a long way towards cementing that. Gotta go through Dabo though. Angry after their rivalry loss is a bad omen for the Mustangs. Tigers late. SMU: 24—Clem: 27

B1G: Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks

Draper: As the Fantasy Footballers once said: I am an M&M with no chocolate....I just don't care.  The Buckeyes suffered arguably the worst loss in the HISTORY of the program this week so it's hard to get excited for this one.  The Lions backed into this one (James Franklin's only hope it would seem) while Oregon has been a machine all year outside of Madison and Eugene (oddly).  I don't have faith that Penn State is very competitive here.  The Ducks are looking forward to the playoffs, while the Lions weren't planning on being in Indy this weekend.  Another game destroyed by the 12-team playoff.  Both teams are jockeying for position, but oddly, the LOSER might have a better path (get ready for reseeding the 2nd round next year--calling it now).  Regardless, the Ducks would love to hoist a B1G Championship Trophy their first year in the conference, and I doubt Drew freaking Allar is going to stop them. Abdul Carter is a beast, but the Ducks are too versatile.  Quack... (I hate everything)....See you in the second round for round 2 Mr. Lanning. PSU: 17--UO: 31
Hoying: It's been said over the last few years, somewhat more forcefully over the last week, that Ryan Day is the Michael Jordan of James Franklins. Whether this is fair or not, the underlying point remains: are we really going to trust James Franklin to deliver on the biggest of stages, against the number 1 team in the country? Last I checked, James has one win in this stratosphere, eight years ago against our own beloved Buckeyes, and that was at home during a white-out on a fluky blocked field goal. Now, judging by the $12 get-in-the-door price to the B1G Championship, there may not be a whole lot of Duck fans making the trip, so the home environment ingredient may be in place for PSU, but they're still going to have to overcome what may be the only team in the country consistently performing at a top level. Honestly, I'm not sure I'd take the field over Oregon if I were predicting this year's Playoff champion. Dillon Gabriel has been solid every week, and the run game, although not a feature of the offense, has been a good consistent enough change of pace. And nobody has been able to move the ball against them absent a Heisman finalist or Ohio State with offensive line V 1.0. I've yet to see Drew Allar prove that he can guide the Penn State offense to a score when they absolutely need one; the Silver Bullets have positively stymied him two years straight and I don't expect the Ducks to have much more trouble. A blowout could lead to a bit more favorable Playoff seeding for the Buckeyes but I think Oregon will be happy to just get up a couple scores and choke the Lions out. PSU: 13--UO: 27

Schweinfurth: I really have no heart to pick this game. Oregon is better. PSU: 14--UO: 35
Seeberg:  It’s Franklin in a big game. That’s all anyone needs to know. PSU: 17—OU: 33