Week 9: The Best Thing About Being 7-0 Is...Staying 7-0

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 26-8 (0-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 22-12 (2-6 upset)
3.) Draper 22-12 (1-7 upset)

Bye weeks come but twice a year, so savor this opportunity to visit your local pumpkin patch or corn maze, catch up on your outstanding yard work...or lock in for another banger slate with intriguing matchups from coast to coast.

Mississippi Rebels @ Oklahoma Sooners

Draper: This is a sneakily tricky matchup.  Ole Kiffikins has Trinidad Chambliss and Co. rocking on the offensive end and looked like they were going to steal one at UGA...until it all fell apart.  Brent Venables has most teams residing in Bo-Pelini-land with a smashmouth defense that is playing up to the hype.  A classic offense vs. defense matchup.  Normally, the edge goes to the defense. Getting John Mateer back and fully healthy (I think) will be crucial to the somewhat pedestrian Sooner offense. I wouldn't be shocked with any outcome, but the a Rebels win would position them nicely for a playoff run as their remaining schedule is just crap.  OU on the other hand has a murderer's row. With that being said, I think the Sooner Schooner continues rumbling in Norman and Kiffin contemplates real estate in Gainsville.  Miss: 17--OU: 23 
Hoying: Welp, serves me right for believing in each of these teams over the last two weeks. You could say that Oklahoma paid the price for rushing John Mateer back onto the field, but Ole Miss has been working all year with a backup QB, and their offense wasn't the (main) reason they lost to Georgia. And Mateer isn't going to be playing any great defense this week; the Rebs haven't held an SEC opponent, or Washington State, under 20 points all season (we are spoiled, Buckeye Nation). True, Ole Miss's weakness is on the ground, and the Sooners haven't really made their hay running the ball this season, but they were able to find some running room last week at South Carolina. The real question in this one is whether the Rebels will be able to move the ball against a stiff Brent Venables defense. The only team to crack 20 against OU was Texas, who needed help from three Mateer INTs. I don't think Oklahoma has a huge advantage here, but being at home should make the difference. Miss: 20--OU: 24

Schweinfurth: Outside of the Texas game, Oklahoma has looked really good. Mateer was clearly rushed back for that one. Ole Miss feels like that middling team that just hangs around but won't do much. Clearly, the Sooners are the better team. Kiffin gets mad because his team doesn't score how he wants. Miss: 14--OU: 27
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of two actually decent SEC teams (LSU=not decent). The Sooners obviously pushed Mateer back into service a week early but seem to have righted the ship. Ole Miss, meanwhile, looked like a juggernaut offensively against Georgia, until it mattered and Kirby and Co figured some things out. The last quarter and a half may provide a blueprint for Oklahoma’s superior defense to stymie the Rebels. Sooners and Rebels swap places in the SEC-laden top 25. Bleh. Miss: 19—OU: 24 

South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers

Draper: So....USF was the early season G5 darling, then it transferred to Memphis.  After a stinker vs. a random guy who replaced Trent Dilfer (Elvis Grbac?), this game has all the playoff implications one could ask for.  There's a decent chance the winner has the inside track to the G5 representation in the playoff and the loser is just plain out.  A virtual elimination game in October, and we're in Memphis.  However, Memphis has one decent win (over Arkansas--who isn't very good) while USF has 1.5 decent wins (Boise and @Florida--which is always tough).  ESPN has this as a pure coin flip and it really does seem that way, but I'll give the edge to the team who has won on the road before.  Go Bulls.  USF: 20--Mem: 17
Hoying: Woof, Tigers. 6-0 with a win over Arkansas and you lose to UAB? The team that was so bad they got Trent Dilfer fired midseason? I guess the lesson here is to watch out for teams with fired coaches and nothing to lose (uh-oh) (x2). South Florida were the darlings of September before Miami snapped them back to reality, but they've been on a tear through the AC since, including handing North Texas their only loss (and by 27 no less). This one will likely come down to the quality of the offense. The Bulls are averaging less than 3 points per quality drive (a drive penetrating the opponent's 40 or scoring a TD, RIP Eckel Rate) and only putting quality drives together 36.5% of the time, while Memphis gets 4.4 points out of their quality drives and gets going at a much healthier 45.2% rate. Add in a punishing Memphis ground game with RBs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, along with QB Brendon Lewis, and I think the honeymoon is over for USF. USF: 17--Mem: 24

Schweinfurth: I'm flipping a coin here. Sorry, this one falls in the category of not enough time to pay attention to non-P5 teams. Yea, I'm that guy this year. Coin says: USF: 31--Mem: 20
Seeberg: Fun matchup here that I hope gets the attention it deserves. Both teams are eyeing a playoff bid now that Ashton Jeanty is a pro. I expect Memphis to move the ball pretty well, but USF can sling it and run it with dual threat QB Byron Brown at the helm. I don’t think the Bulls are good enough to run away and hide in the road environment a la OSU at Illinois, but I do think they have the horses to pull away late. USF: 35—Mem: 24

Missouri Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: And we meet again Mr. Vanderbilt.  Diego Pavia and Clark Lea (he's so gone) have Vanderbilt...yes, Vanderbilt knocking on the doors of the playoffs, not because of a nice conference draw or lucky bounces, but because they're actually very talented.  I thought we'd see the shine come off last week, but they went right at LSU and took it to 'em.  Missouri is a team I just can't figure out.  They seem to flirt with 9-3, 10-2 every year, and I just don't care.  We keep expecting the Dores to stop this madness, but, like Indiana, they have some dogs and keep coming.  Pavia continues to force his way into the Heisman conversation and Vandy keeps it rolling.  Mizz: 20--Vandy: 30
Hoying: Here they are: the teams that won't die. Both of them keep hanging around with much better rankings than they deserve. Seriously, what is Missouri's best win? A quality loss to Alabama? And does anyone expect either of these teams to compete for the SEC championship? We've seen Vanderbilt's ceiling; they left it on the field in Tuscaloosa in the second quarter. The offense is good enough to break through the LSU brick wall but will Mizzou be able to hold serve? QB Beau Pribula is serviceable, certainly good enough to be a backup on a national title contender (and maybe even a starter if the first-stringer would, say, suffer a season ending injury) but he's no Go Diego Go. The swagmaster continues to take the SEC by storm, and he's not stopping for the likes of Missouri. Going to Austin next week may be a bit of a rude awakening, but the dream continues for now. Mizz: 24--Vandy: 30

Schweinfurth: Two teams that I'm not quite sure of. I will stay with the chaos QB though. Mizz: 35--Vandy: 38
Seeberg: Quite frankly it’s sad that we’re in late October and I have NO idea if either of these teams is any good. The super conferences have watered down everyone’s schedules. These two have a combined 1 ranked win- and LSU has no business being ranked. Diego is building a Heisman campaign…who would’ve thought Heisman front runners would be housed in Nashville and Bloomington?? However, defense travels, as does the run game, and the Tigers have both. Pavia is hitting some real defenses the next couple weeks, and those Heisman hopes will be dashed as Sayin climbs up the rankings by literally putting up EA CFB completion numbers. Tigers late. Mizz: 27—Vandy: 20

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Washington Huskies

Draper: Are either of these teams good? Are they bad? I have no freaking clue.  I tend to think that they're neither, but the winner of this game may vault to top 5 status in the Big 10 (by top 5, I mean....5th).Luke Altmeyer has been wonderful all year except when playing a top 2 team, but Washington's defense isn't special.  This comes down to the play of Demond Williams.  If he's cooking, the Huskies should take control, but if he's off, old Bert will reign supreme.  In Seattle, I think Williams and the Husky offense can get it done (unless they play OSU).  The west coast takes a small step forward to relevance.  Ill: 24--UW: 31
Hoying: In lieu of watching the Buckeyes this week, enjoy this showcase of the pretty good teams the Buckeyes beat by double digits on the road. Each has taken an additional hit, though only one of them lost by 50+. Washington, somewhat worryingly, has had a complete failure to launch against both of the recent national champions they've played this year, although a soft and exploitable Illini secondary may be just what the doctor ordered to get the Huskies back on track. Defense travels, but Illinois doesn't have a great defense and they're traveling very, very far, something teams don't seem to be able to get away this season unless you're in the Tom Raper RV advertising area. Don't expect Demond Williams to toss another 3 INTs this week, particularly since I don't expect UW to be doing a lot of throwing playing from behind. It's a shame, really, since the Illini's remaining schedule sets up rather nicely for them to reach double digits and a likely Playoff berth if they can just survive this week, but I think Washington is just a little bit better and have the roar of the Seattle crowd behind them. Ill: 24--UW: 33

Schweinfurth: Washington moved the ball against TTUN, they just had a lot of errors in the red zone. Illinois doesn't seem to have the defense or offensive weaponry to keep up with UW. The Huskies should put up some numbers here. Ill: 28--UW: 42 
Seeberg: So let’s track this. Ohio State is this year’s Ohio State, Indiana is this year’s Oregon, Oregon is this year’s Penn State, and who is this year’s Indiana? A lot of money was on it being Illinois, but this is a tricky road contest. Win this one and the schedule softens to a nice 10-2 landing spot somewhere likely on the inside edge of the playoffs. Washington is another of the boatload of 5-2 B1G squads (seriously, NW is 5-2 as is every single one of their remaining  opponents), and they can score it. A lousy showing against UM should have them motivated. The Illini got an extra week to prep for this one, but umbrella coverage won’t work against a mobile QB, and any team that gives up 27 to Purdue is in trouble. Ill: 20—UW: 30

Upset Special

Draper: CLANGA over Texas
Hoying: South Carolina over Alabama
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Miami
Seeberg: Syracuse over Georgia Tech

Week 8: Southern Discomfort

Standings:

1.) Hoying 22-7 (1-6 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 21-8 (0-7 upset)
3.) Draper 19-10 (1-6 upset)
4.) Seeberg 17-12 (2-5 upset)

After the murderer's row the Big Ten presented last week, America's focus turns a bit further south to check in on three matchups between teams with one loss or fewer. Elsewhere, one of America's most storied rivalries is renewed for perhaps the final time in the foreseeable future, and a corpse is presented for desecration.

Louisiana State Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores

Draper: Is Vandy for real? I think they are, but can they handle the spotlight?  Last time out, they started strong, but crashed late. Pavia has Vanderbilt believing, but there's believing and there's delivering.  The Dores don't have the athletes to match with the top teams (and they never will). Of course that doesn't mean they can't compete, but this feels like a correction week for the Tigahs.  No, LSU isn't the world beater everyone thought after beating Clemson, but they're a solid team.  This feels like a game in which Nussmeier regresses (progresses?) back to the positive end and Vandy takes a step back.  Sometimes, the young upstart needs a reminder.  LSU: 24--Vandy: 17
Hoying: Ah yes, the classic "offense" vs. "defense" showdown. Except, for the first time since before Joey B got to town, the Tigers are the "defense" half of the matchup. Preseason Heisman favorite-turned-clunker (join the crowd) Garrett Nussmeier hasn't been able to get LSU out of second gear, and the running game is atrocious, but nobody is moving the ball on the Tigers this season. That is, except for Ole Miss, who racked up 480 yards against LSU and never really seemed threatened even the Rebs only won by a single score. That said, nobody has been able to stop the Commodores...until the Tide slammed a shutout second half on them in the Vanderbilt's last outing. The advanced stats still aDore (sorry) Vanderbilt's offense, though, as one of the most efficient in the nation, and the stats show a pronounced edge for Vandy overall. Alarm bells are going off in my head for leaning toward picking Vanderbilt to beat LSU, but I'm thinking the Tigers are still getting way, way too much credit for beating a mediocre Clemson team in the opener. Get ready for another SEC shakeup, and for every SEC-head's Week 2 #1 team to be put on Playoff life support. LSU: 17--Vandy: 20

Schweinfurth: Vandy gave Bama all they could handle until a late score. Impressive by a still plucky team. But here come the Tigers and "I turn purple" Brian Kelly. I'm really not sure which team I have more faith in. I don't think Vandy is all they are cooked up to be, but I feel the same about LSU. Diego Pavia is the ultimate chaos QB, so lets go with that. LSU: 17--Vandy: 28
Seeberg: Are either of these teams…(what’s the word I’m looking for), good? The jury is still out but don’t let that stop the AP from putting them both in the top 20. Pavia has been quiet since his humbling at the hands of the Crimson Tide. He and Nussmeyer are both still serviceable but not anywhere near as good as expected. Has Garrett been hurt? Who knows. Neither team runs it well either - heck, Pavia is the Commodores’ leading rusher. This is just a coin flip. So, being a pessimist, I’ll take Vandy so both meh teams stay ranked. Barf. LSU: 20—Vandy: 24

Mississippi Rebels @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: Many of the matchups this week are juicy.  Ole Miss has (quietly) been very strong this year while UGA is not close to the Death Star they've been in the past. However, the schedules are not balanced.  The Rebs have a solid win at home vs. LSU, but nothing else to speak of.  The Dawgs dropped a home game to the Tide (but made a valiant comeback) but won in Knoxville and Auburn (albeit ugly).  I want to pick Ole Miss and was going to...until I dove a little deeper.  I wouldn't be shocked if UGA stumbles again, but Kiffin's resume doesn't hold the water I thought it did.  Dawgs reclaim Sanford.  Miss: 20--UGA: 30
Hoying: You can tell it's going to be a good week of college football because I look at all of these matchups (except one) and just say "I don't know". Despite being one of seven remaining undefeated Power 4 teams, the Rebs haven't  yet turned in two-score win against any of their Power 4 opponents this year. Georgia has been quietly disappointing as well, arguably getting outplayed by SEC basement dweller Auburn last week. Ole Miss is the standard Lane Kiffin "great offense, unreliable defense, also the offense will just disappear in the biggest games of the year", but Georgia isn't the brick wall on D that they were during their title runs. The Dawgs are especially vulnerable through the air; Ty Simpson ate them for lunch after Jalen Milroe did the same to them last year. That's bad news against Mississippi's backup QB sensation (and legitimate all-SEC threat) Trinidad Chambliss. As stated above, not even LSU could meaningfully slow Ole Miss down, and the Tigers have a much better defense than the Dawgs do. Here's another instance of my instincts screaming at me to do otherwise, but I think the Rebs get one over on Georgia for the second straight year. Miss: 27--UGA: 24

Schweinfurth: Here's the thing, Georgia is the better team. At least I think so. Add in the Dawgs are at home, yea, pretty easy. Miss: 13--UGA: 21
Seeberg: Ole Miss heads between the hedges with their backup-turned-starter at QB. Trinidad Chambliss may well be a star in the making, but this isn’t exactly an inviting first career road start, even if the Bulldogs aren’t the wrecking ball on D that they were a few years ago. Ole Miss might build Lane a statue already if he wins this one, but he’s not quite there yet. The old dawg (see what I did there?) stays on top for another year. Miss: 20—UGA: 27

Southern California Trojans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Draper: Another SUPER interesting and incredibly important game for both teams.  If the Irish drop this game, the playoff is done.  If the Trojans take the L, they would need some help to sneak into the playoffs (including a win in Eugene).  Honestly, the Trojans' resume to date is pretty decent.  They almost came back to beat the Illini after the cross country trip (sort of) and took care of the Wolverines, but there is a decent amount of fluff.  Notre Dame has the 2 losses, albeit to good teams, but a whole bunch of crap rounding out the schedule.  The best player on the field is wearing gold but not on the helmet.  Love is a great RB but the Trojans bottled Haynes and Co. up for the most part.  Makai Lemon is that dude and an absolute monster for the Trojans.  If Maiava can get the ball in his area, the Trojans have a great shot.  No Bush push needed, but the Irish's hopes of the playoff evaporate. USC: 27--ND: 20
Hoying: Buckle up, buckaroos. The game down between the hedges may have the highest ranked teams this weekend, but this one should be the headliner of the week. This season, when these teams are good, they're really good, and when they're bad, well, they've lost a combined three games, to three ranked teams, by an aggregate 6 points. It's possible that the Trojans' domination of the hated team up north last week is a bit of fool's gold, as the other team that walloped the Wolverines (Oklahoma) was exposed a bit last week and it's within the realm of possibility that UM is absolute dogwater for the second straight year. But that was the sixth straight game this year that the Trojans have put up at least 31 points, and they've showed no signs of slowing down. The Irish have been deceptively mediocre on defense this year, so it'll be up to Lloyd Carr's grandson and the Price/Love train to outscore USC. I don't think it's happening this year. These Trojans just look different. Even in the loss to Illinois, USC mounted a furious rally to go ahead late before Illinois hit the game winning field goal at the last second, and the Trojans haven't been seriously challenged otherwise. USC stakes their claim for another Playoff run. USC: 34--ND: 31

Schweinfurth: I haven't watched much of either team, but I do think Notre Dame is better than the two losses they have on their record. USC is up and down. The Irish should be able to ground and pound their way to a win. USC: 17--ND: 31
Seeberg: Man it’s hard to know what to make of this one. ND has no wins of note, USC just manhandled UM. The fact that they were the more physical team was eye-opening - and makes me think they are a serious contender for the Irish. CJ Carr has looked solid against the dregs of the schedule - and I still don’t trust USC’s defense against any passing game with a pulse (read: not UM). The late start should negate the effect of the cross-country trip for USC- who put up nearly 500 yards the last time they traveled this far in a close loss to the Illini. Still, they couldn’t stop Altmeyer when they had to, and I expect a similar situation to arise here. Irish pull one out late. USC: 27—ND: 31

Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: I don't know if Tennessee is able to turn the corner after the ugly gag vs. the Dawgs, but the rest of their resume is blah.  Bama looks to be evolving into their final form.  Vandy threw some punches last week, but the Tide and Ty Simpson methodically sat on their heads and took control.  I feel like this is another '3rd Saturday in Oct' in which Tennessee is taught a lesson by the big elephant in town.  Tenn: 13--Bama: 27
Hoying: Like any of the games above, I could see this one playing out in about a thousand different ways. But I take a look at the visiting team and see that they're giving up almost 30 points a game. You could say that's understandable when teams like Georgia come to town, but Syracuse? Mississippi State? It's true that the Vols' defensive struggles have mostly been against the ground game (which Bama has still failed to get going) but Tennessee isn't going to reach anywhere near last season's lofty heights playing defense like this. Tide roll to their fourth straight ranked win. UT: 24--Bama: 31

Schweinfurth: Tennessee is not the same team Ohio State whipped last year. Bama is better than last year. Are they world beaters? No, but they should win a tight one. UT: 28--Bama: 31
Seeberg: Well, Bama is alive and well after all. That week 1 crap show is looking more and more like an aberration by the week and Ty Simpson is near the top of an admittedly mediocre Heisman race this season (just throw the damn ball to Jeremiah). Meanwhile, the Vols’ best win is a close loss to Georgia. Look for Bama to turn Aguilar over a couple times and pull away late. UT: 20—Bama: 34

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers

Draper: I never thought I'd see the day in which the Buckeyes would go into Camp Randall as a FOUR SCORE FAVORITE.  Honestly, that probably isn't enough.  The Badgers are just embarrassingly bad.  Fickell is a dead man walking and the Buckeyes will likely end the suffering (at least the Badgers don't still have to go to Eugene AND to Bloomington AND play the Illini).  It's going to get much much worse for the Badger faithful before it gets better.  Another road game for the Buckeyes so expect Day to try to take the air out of the ball, run repeatedly, shorten the game, and get the dub.  The Bullets will shut down any hopes the Badgers have early while we get a steady dose of Jackson (and Donaldson...and Peoples) as well as a token Jeremiah tuddy to keep the Heisman talk alive.  Get in, get the dub, stay healthy, Go Bucks. (Sorry Fick...it's just business)  OSU: 38--UW: 6
Hoying: It's easy to forget for those of us who remember tough, hard-nosed, power running Wisconsin football teams challenging for Big Ten Championships year in and year out, but Wisconsin was kind of awful for decades before Barry Alvarez took over. And, unfortunately for them, it looks like the Badgers are heading right back in that direction. UW hadn't had back-to-back seasons failing to hit 8 wins since Alvarez's first three years on the job, but Fick hasn't hit that total in either of his first two seasons, and it doesn't look like it'll happen this year, either. Yeah, it's tough to win when you can't keep your QB in playable condition for more than a game at a time, but it's not like anything else has been going right for the Badgers, either. That's a recipe for disaster against an Ohio State team that's been methodically strangling every team they've come across in their title defense tour. Turnovers and short fields masked a number of issues for the Buckeyes last week (the run blocking was just awful and the defense was caught off guard more than a few times), and the coaching staff will be looking to rectify these problems with some live reps against a real (so to speak) opponent heading into the bye week before the stretch run. This one doesn't stay close absent a colossal meltdown by the visitors. Time to start thinking about what Penn State will be able to salvage and present to the Bucks in two weeks. OSU: 31--UW: 0

Schweinfurth: I actually expect this to be lower scoring just due to the weather. Yes, Jeremiah will get his touches. He has to, but with rain in the forecast this one should be on Bo Jackson and company. Let the big boys up front eat. I don't see Wisconsin getting much on this defense either. All and all, this one should be a pretty tidy win for the Bucks. OSU: 28--UW: 3
Seeberg: Wisconsin is averaging the least amount of points in the conference and OSU gives up the least. If they don’t score on their scripted drive this may be another shutout unless Day calls off the dogs because it’s Fickell (a la Freeman in the natty last year). Regardless, it should be an stress-free afternoon facing off against our future D-line coach up in Madison. A chance of showers may make things a little bumpy offensively, but this one should not be in any doubt. It would be nice to know how healthy Bo Jackson is since the Badgers do still stop the run relatively well. Day lamenting that young guys aren’t getting opportunities is amusing since he’s intentionally slowing pace of play to a crawl. But if that keeps everyone healthy it won’t matter much- this season at least. Regardless, easy trips to Madison were few and far between for a couple decades. Enjoy this lack of stress-inducing drama Buckeye Nation. OSU: 31—UW: 6

Upset Special

Draper: Rutgers over Oregon
Hoying: Kentucky over Texas
Schweinfurth: Ok St over Cincinnati
Seeberg: UNLV over Boise State 

Week 7: The Playoff Gatekeeper

Standings:

1.) Hoying 19-5 (1-5 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 18-6 (0-6 upset)
3.) Seeberg 16-8 (2-4 upset)
3.) Draper 16-8 (1-5 upset)

Some of us at Let's Go Bucks! have expressed concern about the effects of Playoff expansion on the importance of the regular season. The effect has been undeniable, though it has now twice allowed the Buckeyes to win national championships despite suffering losses to terrible opponents that would have otherwise knocked them out of title contention. Well, here we are in Week 7, and for several of the nation's top teams, a win this week would all but guarantee them a Playoff berth absent a string of bizarre upsets down the stretch. 

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers

Draper: Bama seems to be getting their sea-legs and taking back the throne.  Yeah, the score of the Vandy game made it look like a bigger blowout than it was, but they fought through the beginning onslaught and grabbed control in the second half (and Vandy is actually good).  I honestly know very little to nothing about the Tigers other than Beau Pribula is the QB (and PSU is lamenting his departure). Ty Simpson could very easily grab control of a very fractured Heisman race with a big Tide win, but I don't think this is a blowout.  Mizzou is a decent team and it's tough to go into Columbia.  Regardless, the Tide feels somewhat inevitable once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.  Bama: 30--Mizz: 20
Hoying: Is it possible to win a game by multiple scores and still feel gross afterwards? The Tide ran off 23 straight points after Vanderbilt went up 14-7 almost (but not quite) right before half, but it was still kind of a troubling win for Alabama. Life hasn't exactly been easy for Missouri either, having to weather a big first quarter from Kansas and rally in the 4th quarter against South Carolina, both at home. Bama can't run the ball worth a lick but that won't really matter against the Tigers, as both the Jayhawks and the Gamecocks buttered their bread through the air against Missouri, and Tide QB Ty Simpson is making a midseason push for the Heisman (so long as voters continue to ignore anyone in Scarlet and Gray). Bama's defense has been a little suspect in the red zone and on late downs, but I still don't think the Tigers will be able to score enough to keep up with them. Bama: 27--Mizz: 24
Schweinfurth: Bama slayed the Vandy beast. Seriously, that was a thing last year. Is that enough to halt the upstart Tigers? Maybe. Mizzou is one of those teams I will pick against until the prove me otherwise. Bama wins...close. Bama: 21--Mizz: 20
Seeberg: Bama’s not-as-hard-as-SEC-homers-want-you-to-believe-but-still-tough schedule continues on the road this time. Vandy wasn’t last year’s version, and this Bama team isn’t last years either, but in a better way. Mizzou has played nobody but handled their business, led by the nation’s leading rusher in Ahmad Hardy. Bama would rather air it out with Ty and Ryan Williams (despite a ton of drops). Other than the Oklahoma game on the Tide’s schedule I think they win out, but this is a tricky matchup. Hey, at least one Penn State QB is playing well. Mizzou grinds the clock and gets the big time W. Bama: 20—Mizz: 24

Indiana Hoosiers @ Oregon Ducks

Draper: I have no idea what to think here.  I have doubted IU for the entire Cignetti era and he keeps making me look stupid (except in the Shoe--Google it).  I've also heard about the absolute monster that Lanning has built with the Ducks...but I doubt that as well.  The huge win at the PSU White Out has certainly lost its luster after hapless UCLA with a new coaching staff didn't need 2OT to embarrass Franklin and Co.  I do think the Ducks are solid, and that Moore is able to orchestrate the offense well...but MENDOZA has the Hoosiers clicking at a super high level (Iowa outstanding).  What's missed here is that the IU defense has some players on it as well (as seen in their demolishing of Illinois).  All this leads to a very boring conclusion: teams just don't go into Eugene and win big games (see 2024 OSU).  The environment is going to be nuts which will be the difference in a (surprisingly) low scoring Duck victory.  Ind: 20--Oregon: 27 (AFLAC trivia answer before the game: Who was the last B1G Team to beat Oregon in Eugene? Answer: Indiana)
Hoying: Depending on how the Indiana - Penn State game plays out, this could, no joke, be the biggest regular season game of the year. Indiana hasn't lost a step from their head-turning breakout season last year, running up 63 on Illinois before surviving the sandwich of all sandwich games last week at the place where promising seasons go to die, Kinnick Stadium. Win this one, and suddenly nobody cares that you played three wet sacks of paint during the nonconference slate: you get five more wet sacks of Big Ten paint and Penn State, and 11-1 almost assuredly gets you back to the Playoff. Of course, their opponent is no slouch either. The Ducks are also keeping pace with last year's maiden voyage through the Big Ten, and now the script brings another contender from the Eastern Time Zone to Autzen for a monster midseason matchup. I do not think that 2025 Indiana is as good as 2024 Ohio State was (probably no team except for 2025 Ohio State is), but if you remember the knife's edge that last year's game turned on, you'd be forgiven for thinking the Hoosiers have a real live chance to win this one and seize control of the Big Ten. And the advanced stats would agree; the closest that either of these teams has to a weakness is a slight softness in Oregon's run defense. That's bad news against an Indiana team that put up 312 on the ground against the Illini (hello, Bo Jackson), but the Hoosiers only averaged 2.7 yards per carry against upset-minded Iowa. Ultimately, I think this one comes down to the environment. Strange things have happened when Big Ten teams have had to cross multiple time zones this season, with Ohio State strangling Washington and Oregon escaping Penn State being the outliers. The x-factor of travel and the Autzen environment do just enough to put the Ducks ahead and on pace for another possible 12-0 season. Ind: 31--Ore: 32
Schweinfurth: I guess we finally get to figure out if these teams are for real. I still have questions about Indiana, but they have passed all of their tests to this point. Oregon has looked the part. They haven't missed a beat after losing Gabriel to the *checks notes* Browns...Anyway. I see this as a shoot out. I have questions about the Hoosier defense, and I think Oregon's D was bailed out by the Franklin/Allar tandem. Take the west cost team at home on these. IU: 38--Ore: 42
Seeberg: A year and a half into Cignetti’s IU program and his only two losses are still to the champs and runners up last year. He might get them to the playoff again before he bolts for Penn State or Florida. Regardless, a trip out to Eugene is always tough, especially when your star WR gets a bogus PI call late in the 4th. Moore and Mendoza can spin it and IU has legit talent: 5 of the top 125 prospects in next year’s draft according to a comprehensive list I saw earlier this week. That same list showed EIGHT Ducks in the top 150. IU is good, not just smoke and mirrors, but it’s just not enough to win at Austen. Ducks late. IU: 27—Ore: 37

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns

Draper: Texas is in trouble, folks.  It's not just the losses, but how they have looked.  I've watched a few Longhorn games and they simply aren't a sound consistent team.  Missed assignments, dropped passes, Arch looking like he needs his Warby Parker glasses to see his receivers....this list goes on.  However, this is a rivalry to 'throw out the record books'.  For another wildcard, John Mateer is planning on returning to lead the Sooner offense after hand surgery when this seemed a total pipe dream a few weeks ago.  Of all the units on the field, the Sooner defense is legit.  Texas has actually faced 2 really good defenses this year....and lost to both.  The question remains about Mateer's hand and the ability of the Longhorn defense to wreak havoc.  I would not be surprised if Texas comes out and rights the ship here, but the spiral is real.  This is the death knell if they can't pull it off, and a last seond FG seals their fate.  OU: 20--UT: 17
Hoying: So Texas is unranked 6 weeks after starting the season at #1. Big deal, week 7 rankings mean about as much as the preseason variety. What's more important is that Texas is running out of opportunities to impress the Playoff Committee, although with their schedule there's a chance they'll get a crack at 4 teams in or around the top 5 before the regular season is out. The Sooners, meanwhile, are riding high and might even get their QB John Mateer back for the Red River Shootout. Mateer may be a bit overrated (was he really any better than Jackson Arnold the day the Sooners beat Auburn?) but nowhere near the flop that Arch Manning has produced through his first 5 games. And you can't even point to the Texas defense saving the day in this one; Texas gave up 29 points to DJ Lagway after Oklahoma put Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines in a blender a few weeks ago. I don't see a reason for Oklahoma not to win this one walking away. OU: 27--UT: 17
Schweinfurth: Can we officially say Arch was crowned too soon? I think so. Oklahoma looks to be a very good team. More so than the Longhorns. This is the Red River Shootout, so expect the unexpected. Except Oklahoma wins. Maybe Arch actually looks competent? That would be unexpected. OU: 35--UT: 27
Seeberg: Is Mateer playing? Has Arch been replaced by a cyborg bent on the destruction of Texas? To answer both:  Of course not…but maybe? Texas can’t really block for Arch who now sidearms every other throw. Colin Simmons has 0 sacks against P4 opponents and, not coincidentally, the Longhorns have 0 wins against said competition. OU, meanwhile, lists Mateer as probable?? I’ll believe it when I see it. Either way, they are trotting out the #2 defense in America (behind only your Silver Bullets). These factors all lead me to believe this so-called shootout will look more akin to Tressel-ball. OU has the talent to thwart Arch and Co like the Bucks did, and if Mateer does get healthy they are undoubtedly the SEC’s best chance at reclaiming the throne. OU: 20—UT: 13

Michigan Wolverines @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: There are so many teams I feel like I can't get a grip on this year.  USC has been Jekyll and Hyde with explosive offense...until the first 3 quarters vs Illinois (the comeback was real until their defense pooped the bed).  TTUN is even more confusing with a freshman phenom that is solid in the run game but looks clueless in the passing game.  The bread and butter for the Wolverines is Justice Haynes and the running game, but this defense in SoCal is serviceable (I won't say 'good').  Makai Lemon is an explosive receiver for the Trojans that should keep a good (not great) UM defense guessing.  Michigan had to fight at home to take down the Badgers who simply are not good. If SC can limit the explosive running plays and stay on schedule offensively, they will grab control.  So long a Riley stays out of his own way, Maiava gets a nice ranked win in the B1G and sends the Wolverines home crying.  UM: 20--USC: 23
Hoying: Indiana - Oregon may be the biggest game of the week, but this one may be the most intriguing. For four weeks, USC looked like they might have the pieces in place to make a deep run in the Playoff, and then the defense didn't get off the bus against Illinois. It's not like the Trojans were particularly stifling before their ill-fated trip to Champaign, and they did still put up 32 points to briefly take the lead late, but suddenly this is starting to look like the same old USC, with a brilliant offense being sabotaged by another unreliable defense. At least they can't blame Alex Grinch this time. That being said, this game is in LA, and Bryce Underwood has been doing his best Davis Warren impression in Michigan's road games this year, leading to an ugly loss to Oklahoma and a close win against Nebraska. I expect this game to look very much like last year's version, with Michigan bashing their heads against the wall again and again and USC staying in control only to the extent they decide not to do something idiotic. I honestly have no idea if Lincoln Riley has the self restraint needed not to throw this one away. But there'll be no friendly Michigan crowd coming to the rescue with their horrendous rendition of a basement dumpster-tier pop song. Trojans keep their Playoff hopes alive until the 1-2 punch of Notre Dame and Oregon finish them off for good. USC: 27--UM: 24
Schweinfurth: I can't read either of these teams. USC had their chance against Illinois, but pooped themselves pretty spectacularly. I don't know what to think of the Wolverines. They are getting better, but I still have questions. West coast team man. USC: 21--UM: 17
Seeberg: Man I hate picking games like this…and not just because the cheaters and best are involved. It’s classic strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. The Trojans had 490 yards of offense against the soon-to-be-mentioned Illini…yet still lost because they gave up over 500 yards. On offense, I don’t trust UM’s so-called WRs to do much, but Justice Haynes is for real and should have a big day. Can Maiava and Lemon make enough plays for USC to stay in it? Sure. Win it? I sure hope so, but sadly this feels a lot like last year’s game: a game you think UM should lose, but USC finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Bleh. UM: 23—USC: 20

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

Draper: The Buckeyes had a tall mountain to climb this offseason after losing an entire team to the NFL last year, but it hasn't made the difference that exodus traditionally produces.  Sayin has been efficient, the receivers remain elite, the running game is emerging under Bo Jackson, and the defense remains a force.  Going on the road to Illinois was circled (along with the trip to Seattle) as the 2 potential trap games.  Washington faced the wrath of this defense and I expect more in Champaign.  Day likes to keep things close to the vest in games like this.  Don't be dumb, let the talent shine, leave with a victory.  While I don't expect fireworks on offense, the Illini showed some real question marks in their (lack of) tackling, especially vs. IU. Altmyer is a strong senior QB but we don't know which version will appear.  If he's on (like vs. SC), the defense will have to step up to the plate.  If he's off (like IU),...uh oh.  I think he'll be in the middle, but Feagin will have nightmares about Downs (Heisman talk please?), Styles, and Reese.  I was nervous about this game until I saw how well the young Buckeyes weathered the storm in Seattle.  Road games are never easy, but in Bo we trust.  OSU: 37--Ill: 10
Hoying: I have been reserving judgment on the 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes. Outside of the season opener, which was very unusual for several reasons, the Buckeyes haven't been sufficiently tested for me to award them the crown or the jester's cap. After all, the 2019 Ohio State Buckeyes might have been the greatest team in program history, and after obliterating some good-to-great teams along the way, they failed to rise to the occasion against the first elite team they faced. Illinois is not an elite team. They're a good, possibly very good team, certainly better than the -53 differential they put up against the Hoosiers a couple of weeks ago. But the problem is, they don't have any strengths to exploit. Oh, Luke Altmyer has done some damage through the air this season? Take a look at what Ohio State just did to Demond Williams and Drake Lindsey, both pretty decent QBs. The Illini defense is a horror show; they haven't given up 63 points since the Bloomington Beatdown but they did surrender 32 and 27 points in wins against USC and Purdue. Ohio State has six losses in the prior three seasons: two were games where the Buckeye offense was flummoxed against elite D-line play for 60 minutes straight, and the other four were against teams who spent time during the season ranked #1 or #2. Illinois is not going to be ranked in the top two this year. This is not a trap game. Traps have to have the capacity to be sprung. I still don't know how good this team is, but if they can get out of Champaign with another single-digit performance by the Silver Bullets, the next six games become Day's personal playtime to get whatever pieces he wants in place before another Playoff run. Bucks win big, again. OSU: 37--Ill: 10

Schweinfurth: Illinois has looked okay so far, except for that blowout against...Indiana. This game IS Illinois' season at this point. Champaign has always been rough on the Bucks. All that wind. Every. Year. Day has this offense building towards something special again. I don't know if Bert has the answers to stop this offense. The fake to Smith and bomb to Tate showed how hard it is to stop the Bucks offense. The Silver Bullets look the part. They are so well coached and rally to the ball so quick. This should be over by the start of the fourth quarter, but we have seen stranger things. OSU: 35--Ill: 9
Seeberg: Did you know the last 5 ranked meetings between these 2 have all been won by Illinois? Hard to remember because it’s been 25 years since the first of those 5 took place but still crazy. That’s about the only stat in the Illini’s favor in this one. For those unaware, they rank 119th in pass defense (a mere 115 spots behind OSU), and Day just started to unleash Julian last week. Even Purdue managed 27 points against them last week. I do think this is the week that someone FINALLY scores double digits against us, with a TD likely in garbage time or on a scripted drive that somebody finally manages to pay off. Either way, start fast to get the home crowd subdued, stick it to Bert with a couple of bombs to JJ, and get out of there. OSU: 38—Ill: 13

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over A&M
Hoying: Kansas over Texas Tech
Schweinfurth: Arkansas over Tennessee
Seeberg: NW over Penn State (jk…can you imagine though??) UCF over Cincinnati 

Week 6: Silver Bullets and Golden Gophers

Standings:

1.) Hoying 15-5 (1-4 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 14-6 (0-5 upset)
3.) Draper 13-7 (1-4 upset)
4.) Seeberg 12-8 (2-3 upset)

Today we take a tour across the college football landscape as pivotal matchups in each of the Power 4 conferences (OK, one maybe not so much) will cement a few more key pieces into the Playoff puzzle

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Draper: An epic showdown in Tuscaloosa as David leaves the friendly confines of Nashville to confront Goliath.  If we don't remember Diego Pavia leading the Commodores to a monumental upset last year, I'm SURE that ESPN won't let you forget it during gameday.  What they'll also say is that Vandy might actually be...good? While this may be the case, the Dores are going up against a fully armed and operational battle station.  Bama was shockingly mid last year (for them), but they've taken control ever since the loss to FSU.  I don't see Vandy keeping this one close.  The Tide will seek revenge and the always collect their debts.  Ty Simpson and Co. win big.  Vandy: 17--Bama: 40
Hoying: Congratulations to the Dores on their first 5-0 start since 2008, coming off of their first winning season since James Franklin (yes, that James Franklin) was calling the shots. Fun fact about Vanderbilt: after the whirlwind tours that Indiana and Iowa State took last season, Vandy is the only Power 4 team to never have a double-digit win season. And it’s not going to get any easier this year, with a brutal 6 road games on the schedule. Of course, Vanderbilt already handled two of those (VT and South Carolina) with aplomb, but the Tide are a bit of a step up in difficulty, and they are angry. I don’t care how passably good Vanderbilt was last season; losing to them as Alabama is like losing to Minnesota as Ohio State: it just isn’t done (spoilers). The thing is, this year’s Vanderbilt team is actually pretty good, with one of the more potent offenses in the country helmed by Heisman candidate (!) Diego Pavia. And unlike Bama’s woefully one-dimensional offense, the Dores can actually run the ball, too. That being said, the Tide couldn’t run a lick against Georgia and it didn’t slow them down any, as they lit the Dawgs up through the air and stymied Gunner Stockton all game in return. Vanderbilt is good enough to do this again, not from an upset alert perspective but strength-on-strength. I just think the talent in the Alabama passing game will be a bit too much for Vandy to overcome. You can still take one more loss and get to 10 wins, Dores. Vandy: 20--Bama: 27
Schweinfurth: Vandy is a great story to this point and it would be funny to see Diego Pavia catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row. I don't see that happening. The Tide are out for revenge. Vandy: 28--Bama: 38
Seeberg: In 2025 this is a competitive game. Insanity. Vandy may have caught a down Tide squad last year, but there’s no surprises this time around. Bama isn’t letting Diego continue to yap nonsense. Roll Tide. Vandy: 20–Bama: 34

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars
Draper: Houston is certainly sneaking around the chicken coop with that Holgo offense, but the schedule leaves much to the imagination.  The Red Raiders have the win over Utah which is solid as a road win (although the score is a bit more lopsided than what happened.  Regardless, I have more faith in a highly paid and talented roster from Lubbock over the recent Big12 additions.  Tech defense shined against Utah in a tough road environment.  Expect more of the same here.  TT: 30--UH: 17
Hoying: Remember what I said a couple weeks ago about fast starts for the Red Raiders? Yeah, they only went up 10-0 on Utah to start that game but they still never trailed. In fact, TTU is one of three teams this season that hasn’t trailed at all (stupid failed 4th-and-1 against Washington). Houston, meanwhile, is putting up a measly 31 points per game against world-beaters like Stephen F. Austin, Rice, and Oregon State. Yeah, the Cougs have been playing decent defense against those teams but so could you and I. Stick with the hot hand. TTU: 34—Hou: 17
Schweinfurth: I'll go back to what I said last week. Texas Tech's D is legit. That should be enough to slow the Cougs down. TT: 35--UH: 21
Seeberg: I expect the Cougar crowd to be up for this one and that should keep things competitive for a half or so, but TTU’s suddenly pricy roster should be stocked enough to pull away from a pesky Houston team. This isn’t basketball after all. TT: 38—UH: 17

Miami Hurricanes @ Florida State Seminoles
Draper: Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate. Hate.  The Noles look to rebound after a clunker in Charlottesville against a decent to good UVA team.  This game provides the path to redemption.  Miami has been fantastic all year, but this FSU team will be the first offense it's faced (yes, yes, Notre Dame is looking good, but that was a freshman QB's first start).  Castellanos should be able to get loose and make the ball hawking Canes defense feel some pain after seeing what Carr did on the ground.  Honestly, this FSU team appears to be very Jekyll and Hyde.  Here's hoping we get the good one here.  Let's not forget this is the Canes first game outside of Hard Rock this season.  Beck shouldn't be bothered by the road noise, but it will be difficult for the rest of the team.  You know I'm not picking them.  FMFFM. UM: 27--FSU:34
Hoying: Well, this was ALMOST as exciting as the heavyweight battles in the 80’s and 90’s (nice faceplant, FSU), but it still has serious implications for the ACC and Playoff races. Tommy Castellanos has been a nice novelty act for the Noles (Bama had NO idea what to do with him), but unfortunately he’s not facing the 2024 Miami defense. This year’s team has brought the swagger back to south Florida, and while no one will be mistaking them for the Silver Bullets anytime soon, they’re playing well enough to challenge for the national title when paired with the dangerous Miami offense. Carson Beck isn’t quite the gunslinger that Cam Ward was, but again, the pieces are all in place to make a deep push in the Playoff. This might be the last major obstacle that the Canes face until the ACC Championship, and if Florida State loses here to start 0-2 in conference, you can kiss any hope of a rematch goodbye. The wheels aren’t falling off in Tallahassee, but a return to the Playoff might need to wait another year. UM: 31—FSU: 26
Schweinfurth: Sorry Chief, Miami is hot right now. I'm just not sure if the Noles can hang. UM: 42--FSU: 38
Seeberg: The sunshine state is resurgent! (Gators notwithstanding). FSU’s win looks better over Bama each week, regardless of how ESECPN tries to spin it. The U, meanwhile, look like the closest thing to a challenger that Oregon and OSU have in the country. Beck is a couple notches above serviceable again, and the Hurricanes D-line sets the table for their back 7. Neither team has elite playmakers on offense, so I’m going with the better defense in this game. Sorry Chief. UM: 27— FSU: 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: There's always a lot of energy on the Gopher sideline with Coach Fleck, but I don't think his offense is going to have much pep in their step going up against the Bullets at night in the Shoe. The Gophers best win is...checks notes... over Rutgers at home....by 3.  This could get ugly quick.  Minnesota isn't Grambling, but they're a far cry from Texas (or even Washington). I think the Ohio game is a nice comp, but I think Day will have the Buckeyes playing a little more aggressively on offense.  Sayin has gone on the road and brought home a dub so it's time to try different techniques.  While I'd love a game that is over by halftime (I miss last year's Rose Bowl), the Buckeyes seem to be playing with their food while rope-a-doping the competition.  This is the game where we work some downfield shots and show that Tate is a great receiver as well.  Another ho-hum victory on Homecoming.  UM: 10 (booooooo double digits)--OSU: 48 
Hoying: What am I supposed to say at this point? The Buckeye defense looks incredible again, and they’re about to lay the hammer against another hopelessly outmatched opponent. I suppose weeks like this are when Day gets to tinker and plant some seeds that will hopefully bear fruit later this season while he otherwise puts the other team to sleep with 50 offensive plays or so. What I would like to see is whether this team can get a yard when they absolutely need it. Short yardage situations were the Buckeyes’ Achilles heel from 2021-23 (remember that awful Egbuka end around that just about lost the Notre Dame game?) but Chip Kelly seemed to have turned a corner last season. Then CJ Donaldson got stonewalled on 4th and 1 from the Washington 5 and the Buckeyes ended up trailing for the first time all season. I’m not saying we have to prove what a tough hard-nosed running team we are (throwing the ball to CJ worked just fine at the end of the game), but the red zone failures are going to cost us at some point if we find ourselves in a game like last year’s Cotton Bowl (or, you know, the other one). It’s not going to make a difference against Minnesota, but let’s see some progress in that department. Then again, if we don’t face a third and short all day, that’s fine too. OSU: 45—Minn: 3
Schweinfurth: The Silver Bullets look legit. Minnesota's QB already has issues moving the ball and now they have to see this monster. It's Homecoming, so it makes sense we get a blowout. OSU: 48--Minn: 6
Seeberg: Ah yes, the night game we all wanted(?) The Gophers come calling to a subdued OSU offense. Get used to it people, Day has his formula for these way-too-long-but-rich-people-needed-even-more-money college football seasons. Slow the pace, limit the reps to keep everyone healthy, then let it rip come December. Worked last year, who’s to argue? I do wish some young guys on both sides of the ball could get a few extra reps, but I get not messing with success. Might not be a flashy “bottom line” score, but Ws are always welcome. Fleck looked to have his best team up there since he took over…until they got beat by a true freshman QB leading ACC power Cal (weird to even type that). Keep everyone healthy, keep the D rolling, and onto the next. Minn: 10—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Virginia over Louisville
Hoying: Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Kentucky over Georgia
Seeberg: North Carolina over Clemson 

Week 5: B1G Dogs and SECond Fiddles

Standings:

1.) Hoying 11-4 (1-3 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 11-4 (0-4 upset)
3.) Draper 10-5 (1-3 upset)
4.) Seeberg 9-6 (2-2 upset)

Four of the top contenders in the Big Ten are on the road facing stiff opposition this week (sorry, Indiana, you were left off the list this time), while America's erstwhile premier conference has their own sorting out to do down south.

Southern California Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Draper: Can Bert and Co. rebound from the absolute whooping they received last week? USC is an interesting team in that they MIGHT have something going in the City of Angels.  I think it's a bit premature to plan on the ascendency of the Trojans yet based on the (lack of) competition, but there might be some juice.  The Illini get to return home, but I don't know how to ignore what I saw last week.  The lack of fundamental tackling was appalling.  I'll keep the Trojans with the 0 in the loss column....for now.  USC: 30--Ill: 20
Hoying: In case the whining from Los Angeles hasn't reached you yet, USC closed out the week 4 action in the wee Sunday hours and now gets the day kicked off at 9 AM Pacific this Saturday. That won't seriously impact prep time but it is a symptom of life in the Atlantic and Pacific Coast Conference. However, it will take more than body clock recalibrating to slow down the Trojan offense. USC hasn't looked this lethal since Matt Leinart was handing the ball off to Reggie Bush. Now, you can say, "What about the defense?" but I don't recall USC giving up 63 points to anyone this season. I expect the Illini to bounce back at home, especially against a porous Trojan defense, but USC is just too explosive to wind up with the low score here. USC: 31--Ill: 27
Schweinfurth: I actually got to watch the IU/Ill game last week. Man, Bert's defense was absolutely exposed. It wasn't just guys running wide open down the field, they were chasing ghosts. Not to say USC is a world beater this year, they aren't. But they have to be better than whatever corpse the Illini are rolling into this game with. USC: 35--Ill: 17
Seeberg: What a slate this week! Let’s dive in. Bert got massively exposed in Bloomington last week. This year’s Indiana will not be the Illini (might just be Indiana again). At any rate, you know Lincoln Riley is licking his chops to get at this suddenly porous Illinois D. To be fair, Luke Altmeyer and Co will likely score more than 10 against USC’s mid D, but I don’t see them hanging for four quarters against superior talent. Trojans pull away late. USC: 38—Ill: 27

Louisiana State Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: This is a really interesting game.  The national media continues to crown the Tigers based on their week 1 win over #4 Clemson.  Sadly, the 1-3 Tigers are more kittens at this point.  The win over UF was a good one, but a lot of that credit goes to Lagway giving them the rock FIVE times (and even then, they never pulled away).  Ole Miss is going to be the first real test for the LSU defense.  Kiffikins will keep up the pressure, but I can never tell if this is the week Ole Miss faceplants. I think it's early in the season, the offense is strong enough to bend the Tigers, and it's in The Grove.  With that, I'll lean on the Rebs to pull out a big W and enter the playoff conversation.  LSU: 24--Miss: 31
Hoying: Remember in week 1, when the SEC heads were scrambling on a team to crown after Texas stumbled, and they all coalesced around LSU after their "dominant" win over Clemson? You could say that may have been a bit of an overreaction, and you'd be right, but Kirk Herbstreit had LSU as his #1 team last week. Judging by how Miami jumped up to #2 last week, I suppose beating Florida is going to count as a quality win for about 10 different teams this year. What were we talking about again? Oh yes, overrated LSU. It's not like Ole Miss has been setting the world on fire either, struggling to put away mediocre Kentucky and Arkansas. But much like the matchup above, one of these teams is much more consistent on offense than the other, and you don't have to guess which team that is when Lane Kiffin is involved. Yes, the LSU defense has been successful, but their suffocating performance against Florida was largely turnover-driven. And as anyone who watched the 2006 Ohio State Buckeyes can tell you, turnover-driven defenses work until they don't. Ole Miss hasn't been particularly careful with the football, but they're generally so efficient with their drives that it doesn't really matter. I expect the Rebs to do enough to further dent the Heisman campaign of another disgraced preseason favorite, Garrett Nussmeier, and the home team to do enough to walk away with the W here. LSU: 24--Miss: 30
Schweinfurth: I have watched ZERO SEC football this year outside of Texas/Ohio State. What I do know is that LSU is a bit of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. At some point it will happen. Why not this week. LSU: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Ooof. Not a fan of this matchup of mid-SEC teams. Yeah, I said it. Ole Miss beat those SEC juggernauts Arkansas and Kentucky by a combined 13 points. Not to be outdone, LSU beat how-haven’t-they-been-fired-yet Dabo and Billy Napier by just 17 points total. I also trust neither of these coaches in big games. Neither has won anything of consequence, and Kiffin was the OC who inexplicably stopped giving Derrick Henry the ball in the Sugar Bowl (thanks, from Buckeye Nation). For LSU, in a year chock full of mediocre QB play around the country, Nussmeyer still hasn’t separated himself from the pack. In the end, I think the Rebels’ rushing attack (if Kiffin uses it) with Kewan Lacy may be able to control the clock and limit the Tigers’ possessions. Get ready for a top 8 Lane Kiffin squad. Ugh. LSU: 17—Miss: 24

Oregon Ducks @ Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions
Draper: The marquee game is in Happy Valley this week and the Lions finally get their whiteout game against a good team. PSU is only 13-8 in whiteout games (which is a little low), but they've won the last 6 (although that includes 'juggernauts' of Minnesota, SMU in the playoff, Washington last year).  Not surprisingly, the last loss was against the Buckeyes in 2018 (before the rising of Big Noon).  However, I will note that that is a TOUGH environment to work through (see 2005).  Both teams have steamrolled their competition, but that was expected with the garbage in the non-conference.  This is a big test for Dante Moore and a (relatively) young Oregon team.  They're used to the spotlight, but Happy Valley will be extremely difficult at night.  The Lions have James Franklin and Drew Allar so they're not invincible, but the environment coupled with a decent night of game management from Allar will yield the first big PSU regular season win in the Franklin era since....2016 OSU on a blocked kick.  Franklin will try to mess it up, but the Lions get it done.  The all-in strategy still lives. UO: 24--PSU: 27
Hoying: The Buckeyes' opponent this week, though undefeated, is not only unranked, but didn't get a single vote in the AP poll. "Big deal", you say, "they haven't played anybody yet." Oh yeah? Check out this murderer's row of Oregon and Penn State's opponents: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Nevada, FIU, Villanova. These teams have a combined ONE win over another FBS team (FIU over FAU), and yet these teams are both ranked in the top 6. Granted, both of them have looked really good (well, Oregon has), and both of them were supposed to compete for a title this year (well, Penn State was), but this is first time either is facing anything resembling a real test. When these two teams faced off in Indianapolis last season, Penn State ran wild up and down the field, but Drew Allar was merely OK while Dillon Gabriel was surgical. Now, Drew Allar has a senior's experience but Dante Moore is no spring chicken, and despite all of the Penn State glazing in the offseason I'm sure the latter has a higher ceiling than the former. It's tough to play at your best in White Out conditions but at least the Ducks can count on Big Game James to do something stupid with the outcome on the line (Chase Young sends his regards). Either way, the winner will have Indiana to worry about later this season, but the Ducks move into the driver's seat to challenge Ohio State for the big time prize once again. Ore: 31--PSU: 30
Schweinfurth: Guys, Drew Allar is NOT good. There is no way a Penn State team with that QB play should be ranked this high. And James Franklin still coaches the Nittany Kitties. The White Out factor is real, but it won't make up the QB talent gap. OU: 31--PSU: 17
Seeberg: I absolutely refuse to dig into any top 10 matchup involving Penn State until Franklin wins one. Ducks dub. OU: 27—PSU: 17

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Georgia Bulldogs
Draper: Honestly, this game is the top game of the week nearly every year, but it is overshadowed a touch by the showdown in Happy Valley and Bama's perceived fall from grace.  Regardless, Sanford Stadium will be rocking between the hedges and the Tide looks to reascend to the mountaintop.  UGA remains the new standard of SEC excellence since the departure of Saban, but I think Kirby's perch is getting a tad shaky.  Don't get me wrong: the Dawgs are a very good team, but I don't think the talent differential is that great between UGA and the rest of the SEC.  The UT game exposed some flaws in that defense and Austin Peay kept it much closer than expected (Let's Go Peay!).  Bama seems to be powering up after being embarrassed by my Noles in week 1.  The bettors like Georgia, but I'm going to lean on the power rankings and pick the Tide to get a HUGE road win and temper some of the heat on Deboer.  Ryan Williams and Ty Simpson will have a game and, once again, remind Kirby who the big dog is in the SEC.  Bama: 27--UGA: 24
Hoying: Many elite coaches have that one team that, for whatever reason, they struggle to beat. Jim Tressel had Wisconsin, Urban Meyer had Michigan State, Ryan Day why are you wasting your time reading this, and Kirby Smart is eternally flummoxed by Alabama. The Tide may be foundering a bit in the Kalen DeBoer era, but they still found time to beat Georgia last year, and the Dawgs didn't look terribly impressive in stealing a win from Tennessee last week either. UGA was absolutely gashed through the air in Knoxville, and that doesn't bode well for facing the pass-happy Tide and the best receiver south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Who will step up to be the SEC's standard bearer this season? Bama: 34--UGA: 28
Schweinfurth: I don't think Bama is very good. Georgia is better, but not by much. Bama: 21--UGA 31
Seeberg: Well here we are again. Kirby’s nemesis. Though, to be fair, Bama ran college football with Saban at the helm. One has to think Smart’s 1-6 record against the Tide will improve now, right? Perhaps not. Bama has looked, well, like Bama since an opening week loss to a resurgent Seminole squad. Ty Simpson has been solid, with similar numbers to Gunnar. However, it’s the run game that may separate these two. UGA has 4 players with over 100 yards rushing this season and Bama isn’t even averaging 125 ypg. Between the hedges, I expect the Bulldogs to control the flow of the game and get Kirby his second W against the Tide. Bama: 20—UGA: 27

THE Ohio State University Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies
Draper: I'm a bit bearish on the Buckeyes this weekend.  I do think we get the win (spoiler alert), but there are a few concerns.  Husky Stadium is a tough place to play and the UW faithful really believe their team is a contender.  Whether or not this is the case, the belief will ratchet up the pressure if the Buckeyes don't start hot.  B1G eastern teams have struggled on the West Coast, but I don't know how much is simply homefield vs travel.  The Husky offense is pretty darn good and will challenge the Buckeye secondary who showed a few gaps against Texas that Manning (thankfully) handed right into the ground.  Finally, this is Sayin's first road start.  Anyone's first start is tough, but a (redshirt) freshman on the road in a tough environment is a tall order. I'm hoping the offense can be methodical and matriculate the ball down the field will a couple haymakers to Smith and Tate (and maybe a little running game....please....more Bo?), and the defense can shut down the Huskies early.  If we get into a hole early, it will be tough to get out.  The good news? The Bucks are the more talented team by a healthy margin.  Play your game, don't be dumb, and we'll escape the West Coast unscathed. OSU: 27--UW: 17
Hoying: As stated above, the Huskies are not ranked, not even receiving a single vote in the AP poll. This may be a product of having played Colorado State, Washington State, and Nobody FCS so far, but they've looked the part ever since being tied with CSU halfway through the third quarter of the opener. You'd think an undefeated team two years removed from the CFP National Championship Game would garner a bit more respect. But I just don't think the  Huskies' early season pattern will hold against a team as talented and well coached as Ohio State. Washington has a very narrow path to victory, and it requires leaning hard on dual threat QB Demond Williams and his killer RB - WR combo of Jonah Coleman and David Denzel Boston. But gone are the bad old days of the Silver Bullets letting one pesky player win the game all on his own (looking at you, Rondale Moore and almost Anthony McFarland). Besides, on the other side of the ball, UW is dealing with multiple injuries, and they aren't that stout of a defensive unit to begin with. My only concern is in the red zone and short yardage situations. Last year was the first time in the modern Day era that I felt confident the Buckeyes could consistently gain a yard when they absolutely needed to, and while the jury is still out on this season, I haven't been impressed with the results so far. If that means making Lincoln Kienholz the red zone specialist, then by all means do it! Work some of that Chip Kelly magic and don't be afraid to make the QB a weapon in the run game as well. Although, if Julian Sayin and the standard Brian Hartline death squad continue to have the success with the deep ball that they've been having (and they should against this Washington defense), I'm not sure it will matter just yet. Buckeyes take the loud body blows in Seattle but come out no worse for the wear. OSU: 34--UW: 17
Schweinfurth: The Husky offense feels legit. It feels better than what we saw out of the Longhorns. They've punted twice! This is a step up in competition for Washington, but it is also the first road test for Sayin. He's looked good this year and is the most accurate passer in CFB. The Bucks can stretch the field, but they can also pound it. Washington NEEDS this game to be a shootout to say in it. I think the score reflects this, but the Bucks pull away late. Bo Jackson breaks another big one and JJ Smith keeps moving toward that Heisman. OSU: 35--UW: 24

Seeberg: Quite frankly, as much as I do think the Huskies are woefully underrated (east coast bias might be real), I’m sick of hearing about how great they are. All I’ve heard on every show and from every talking head is how great their offense is and what a test it will be. Fine, cool. Anyone notice the other half of the coin? The Washington D is middling at best, and they’re out a starting LB and potentially their number 2 corner. AND they play primarily man. AND Sayin is leading the nation in completion percentage. AND Jeremiah Smith is an alien. We will certainly get some stops, and I just don’t expect their defense to hang for four quarters. Bucks open it up and win going away. OSU: 38—UW: 20

Upset Special

Draper: Iowa over Indiana
Hoying: Auburn over Texas A&M
Schweinfurth: Colorado over BYU
Seeberg: Mississippi State over Tennessee

Week 4: The Playoff Push Begins

Standings:

1.) Draper 8-2 (1-2 upset)
2.) Seeberg 7-3 (1-2 upset)
2.) Schweinfurth 7-3 (0-3 upset)
4.) Hoying 6-4 (1-2 upset)

Conference play begins in earnest across the landscape (well, not so much in the ACC), and a lot of early season 3-0 hopefuls are squaring off in the hopes of positioning themselves as early front-runners to grab one of 12 lucrative Playoff berths. September may be for pretenders, but we'll soon find out whose make believe journey will crash and burn before October even arrives.

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Utah Utes
Draper: The Big 12 feels like a grab-bag week in and week out.  Along with Iowa State, these two teams are the frontrunners in the conference game, and this week could go a long way to deciding the Big 12 Championship Game appearance.  Texas Tech is the new hotness with that oil money being dumped in, but old stalwart Utah looks pretty good.  Devon Dampier has been solid at QB and I think he's the difference.  Rice Eccles is rocking for a Big Noon game, but the Utes QB leads the team to victory.  TTU: 24--Utah: 31
Hoying: These two teams have looked fantastic so far against a six-pack of wet paper sacks. And Big 12 conference play hasn't even started yet, wait until they get to play the teams that lost to Ohio and Army. Utah was a heavy favorite to win the first edition of the new-look Big 12 last season before heavily faceplanting down the stretch, while TTU hasn't challenged for a conference title since Michael Crabtree shocked Longhorn Nation all the way back in 2008. But the winner of this game should be in the driver's seat for the climb atop the nation's least prestigious "major" conference. The Utes stumbled out to a close halftime lead last week against Wyoming before pulling away for a comfortable win in the second half (sounds familiar), while Texas Tech has scored at least 45 straight points to open all 3 of their games so far this year (looks like that NIL war chest is paying off already). I like the Red Raiders to keep rolling on the road. TTU: 34--Utah: 28
Schweinfurth: I saw a stat that Texas Tech was one of the top defenses in the country. That's a far cry from the Mike Leach Air Raid days. Past that, I need to go with my instinct. Texas Tech wins. TTU: 30--Utah 17
Seeberg: I’m not going to act like an expert on either of these teams. What I do know, however, is that the Utes are a tough matchup at home, and though total talent may be on the side of the Red Raiders, the cohesiveness year over year at Utah is rare these days, and it will show up late in a close, entertaining win. TTU: 27–Utah: 31

Auburn Tigers @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: Jackson Arnold....REVENGE.  There is so much said about Auburn due to his acquisition, but they've been pretty mid thus far (against garbage).  At least OU put together a win against TTUN...even though they did everything in their power to blow it.  Mateer directed a nice offensive attack and the Sooner defense was lights out (if they laid off the dumb penalties).  If they can play a clean game, that Venables D is a scary sight.  Add to it that it's in Norman and I think Hugh Freeze and the Tigahs get a dose of reality in the new SEC.  Aub: 10--OU: 20
Hoying: Welcome to the Jackson Arnold Bowl. After a disastrous 2024 for the Sooners which saw him finish with a dreadful QBR of 47.9 (including a 1.2 in a 25-15 loss to Tennessee), the cast-off QB has found happy landings at Auburn, where he's quietly put together a better young season than OU's shiny new Heisman candidate transfer QB John Mateer. Now, Arnold is doing this against teams like Baylor while Mateer had to face Michigan (who, in all fairness, looked lost on defense against OU), but it's still odd to see a QB leave Oklahoma and get dramatically better. We're not in the Bob Stoops / Lincoln Riley era anymore, folks. But, on the other side of the ball, the Brent Venables era seems to have finally reached Norman, as the Sooner defense has been stifling so far this season after a few false starts. OU put Bryce Underwood in a blender and I wouldn't be surprised to see them do the same to their old rock-slinger. Sooners stay deep in the hunt to challenge Georgia for the SEC title. Aub: 17--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Oklahoma showed that Will Venables still knows how to play defense. Auburn, at least in my mind, is still lost since everyone can pay players now. Shocking, I know. OU wins close. Aub: 13--OU: 17
Seeberg: I’m tired of seeing 90% of the SEC ranked. Auburn needs to lose this game solely for that reason, because OU would stay ranked with a loss (quality losses ftw!). The Sooners have officially embraced the SEC by playing defense finally, and that D will be just good enough…giggity. Aub: 20—OU: 27

Tulane Green Wave @ Mississippi Rebels
Draper: Both teams enter undefeated, but neither has looked particularly sharp.  Ole Miss eked out 2 SEC wins against meh competition, but those 2 wins are much more solid than whatever Tulane has rolled out.  Tulane is the sneaky team for Group of 5 consideration and this is the game to cement their spot on the top of the pile.  However, I don't think they have the athletes to hang in this one.  Even if the Rebs start the backup QB (as presumed), the Wave need some magic to swing this at the Grove.  BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff is a decent talent, but the line play delivers another win for the SEC.  Tul: 16--Miss: 34
Hoying: I know, I know, this seems like a bit of a mismatch to put on here, but Tulane has a habit of making people (me) look like fools when they're underestimated. Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons may be out with an injury for a second week in a row, and while Trinidad Chambliss was no slouch in relief last week, the Rebs still struggled to put away Arkansas, and this was after letting Kentucky hang around all game the week prior. Tulane has taken care of business against Northwestern and Duke (who, in all fairness, might both be really bad) behind a decent offense and a serviceable defense, but they haven't seen anything like what Ole Miss is about to throw at them. No need to overthink this one. The Green Wave's path the the Playoff still runs through the AAC Championship. Tul: 17--Miss: 31
Schweinfurth: Again, this is an instinct pick for me. File it under, I've haven't had enough time to actually much football so far. Ole' Miss wins. Tul: 20--Miss: 35
Seeberg: Good news: Tulane is good, and feisty. Bad news, they’re good enough that Kiffin won’t allow his Ole Miss squad to overlook them. That will happen later this season to a random nonsensical SEC team. Rebels pull away. Tul: 20—Miss: 38

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Draper: What is Michigan this year? What is Nebraska this year? Does anybody really know what time it is? I honestly have no clue.  Underwood looked like a deer in headlights in Norman and 'batman' against powerhouse Central Michigan.  Will Nebraska under Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola ever deliver? The biggest issue for the maize and blue is that their defense isn't the monster we saw the last few years.  While the offense took a slight step forward with Justice Haynes and an upgrade at QB, the defense has regressed after so much talent went to the league.  This will come down to whether or not Nebraska can be competent on offense.  If Nebraska can stay ahead of the sticks and not shoot themselves in the foot, they might finally get a decent win for the first time in what feels like 10 years.  Flip a coin, but I'm guessing Underwood still isn't ready for the road and the Huskers win (?) a close game.  UM: 20--Neb: 23
Hoying: This is it, Nebraska. If you want to prove you belong back at the big boy table, it's time to finally beat an opponent with a pulse, something the Huskers arguably haven't done since snakebiting 2015 Playoff participant Michigan State Spartans. Then again, it's possible that the Wolverines are fraudulent this year as well. Sure, they looked great pummeling Central Michigan by a margin of 60 last week (take that, two-timing Connor Stalions), but they looked utterly lost on both sides of the ball the week prior in Norman. I'm not ready to declare last year an aberrant season for Michigan, or to herald Bryce Underwood as the next big thing, but I'll believe the Cornhuskers are back when I see it, and not a moment before. Don't be surprised if they limp along to lackluster losses to USC and Penn State along the way to another mediocre bowl berth. Plus, Sherrone Moore is still sidelined for this game, so the maize and blue can't help but overperform for one more week. Let's just hope his single suspended game next year isn't against us. UM: 27--Neb: 20
Schweinfurth: I can't pick Nebraska until they can actually win one of these games. Seriously, I have no faith in the Huskers to win big games, ESPECIALLY if they are close. This smells like a one score game to me. So the Huskers and wannabe Mahomes lose close again. UM: 20--Neb: 17
Seeberg: With the LARGE caveat that UM isn’t a “big” win, it feels like Nebraska has had several of these games to return to, at least second-tier national prominence over the past 20 years and just fallen flat on their face every time. Remarkably, two 5-star QBs headline this one (welcome to the NIL era officially). Underwood, however, looked dreadful in his first road test and I just don’t think they have the weapons to beat anyone of consequence. I’m not convinced the Huskers are in that category, but this W would go a long way towards it. Raiola leads a FG drive late and Underwood can’t match it. UM: 20—Neb: 23

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: I'm actually surprised this isn't Gameday....  UF/UM is a nice 'rivalry' (kind of), but Florida is a Jekyll and Hyde team while we all hold our breath for the Beck collapse. This is a big time game in which we'll find if either of these teams is going to step up to be this year's....Indiana? Bert has people really drinking the Illini Kool Aid after the win over the Gamecocks in bowl season, but best guess is that these teams are actually both pretty mid 15-25 ranked teams that will bluster until they play someone of note (see IU last year).  Cignetti was very smart grabbing that money as soon as possible because keeping IU relevant will be a monumental task.  The QB transfer of MENDOZAAAAA has slung it nicely for the crimson while Altmyer has been fine for what seems like forever.  Neither team has played anyone (at all) so we'll out at least one of these teams as pretenders here.  I'm pretty surprised that the Hoosiers are favored by nearly a TD (and the line has moved more heavily in their favor.  Bloomington can be a little dangerous when IU believes (which they do), but at the end of the day, I lowkey think the Illini are better.  I'm going with boy genius Bert and hoping that he isn't able to fart this away.  Ill: 23--IU: 20
Hoying: And just like everyone foresaw, the biggest game of the day is between IU and UI (not even the Iowa version). You can say that Indiana is coasting on the fumes of last season's campaign in which they beat nobody of note and got blown out by both ranked teams they played, but the Hoosiers have been taking care of business against this year's awful teams after a slow start against Old Dominion. Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher thanks to little more than random guessing and hype from the college football media machine, but the Illini have looked the part as well outside of a shaky first half against Duke (who, again, might just be really bad). I'm not ready to call either of these teams a real contender for the Big Ten title (much like the teams immediately above) but the winner may be able to clog up the Big Ten rankings in the way that Indiana and Penn State did last year. As for the pieces on the field, Illinois will be missing a key defender as all-B1G DB Xavier Scott is out with an injury, which is bad news when you're facing Indiana's latest volcanic repeater transfer QB, the erstwhile Cal Bear Fernando Mendoza. I'll cut Indiana a break for losing to the two top ranked teams last season; I don't think their ceiling is losing to every ranked team they play. Curt Cignetti keeps it interesting for a couple more weeks before a rude awakening in Autzen. Ill: 24--Ind: 27
Schweinfurth: Indiana thinks they have the formula. Play a bunch of no name cupcakes in the non-conference and sneak into the playoffs. Smart, until they run into elite teams. Yes, the Hoosiers beat up on Indiana State. They should have. But going from that game to a ranked game isn't a step up, it's a flight to the moon. This feels like an Illini win to me. Ill: 28--IU: 24
Seeberg: Gosh this is a brutal pick…and incredibly an important one in the CFP landscape. Winner has a good track to be 2024 Indiana and snag that 4th B1G spot. Both have looked steady, but Bloomington isn’t exactly a brutal road environment. Bert has his team playing clean, and as good as I think Mendoza is, he may feel the need to press when he’s not playing Larry Bird’s FCS alma mater. One mistake too many gives the Illini a late W. Ill: 27—Ind: 23

Upset Special

Draper: Florida over Miami (gross on all fronts)

Hoying: Georgia State over Vanderbilt

Schweinfurth: Purdue over Notre Dame

Seeberg: Maryland over Wisconsin