Standings:
1.) Schweinfurth 26-8 (0-8 upset)
2.) Hoying 25-9 (1-7 upset)
3.) Seeberg 22-12 (2-6 upset)
3.) Draper 22-12 (1-7 upset)
Bye weeks come but twice a year, so savor this opportunity to visit your local pumpkin patch or corn maze, catch up on your outstanding yard work...or lock in for another banger slate with intriguing matchups from coast to coast.
Mississippi Rebels @ Oklahoma Sooners
Draper: This is a sneakily tricky matchup. Ole Kiffikins has Trinidad Chambliss and Co. rocking on the offensive end and looked like they were going to steal one at UGA...until it all fell apart. Brent Venables has most teams residing in Bo-Pelini-land with a smashmouth defense that is playing up to the hype. A classic offense vs. defense matchup. Normally, the edge goes to the defense. Getting John Mateer back and fully healthy (I think) will be crucial to the somewhat pedestrian Sooner offense. I wouldn't be shocked with any outcome, but the a Rebels win would position them nicely for a playoff run as their remaining schedule is just crap. OU on the other hand has a murderer's row. With that being said, I think the Sooner Schooner continues rumbling in Norman and Kiffin contemplates real estate in Gainsville. Miss: 17--OU: 23
Hoying: Welp, serves me right for believing in each of these teams over the last two weeks. You could say that Oklahoma paid the price for rushing John Mateer back onto the field, but Ole Miss has been working all year with a backup QB, and their offense wasn't the (main) reason they lost to Georgia. And Mateer isn't going to be playing any great defense this week; the Rebs haven't held an SEC opponent, or Washington State, under 20 points all season (we are spoiled, Buckeye Nation). True, Ole Miss's weakness is on the ground, and the Sooners haven't really made their hay running the ball this season, but they were able to find some running room last week at South Carolina. The real question in this one is whether the Rebels will be able to move the ball against a stiff Brent Venables defense. The only team to crack 20 against OU was Texas, who needed help from three Mateer INTs. I don't think Oklahoma has a huge advantage here, but being at home should make the difference. Miss: 20--OU: 24
Hoying: Welp, serves me right for believing in each of these teams over the last two weeks. You could say that Oklahoma paid the price for rushing John Mateer back onto the field, but Ole Miss has been working all year with a backup QB, and their offense wasn't the (main) reason they lost to Georgia. And Mateer isn't going to be playing any great defense this week; the Rebs haven't held an SEC opponent, or Washington State, under 20 points all season (we are spoiled, Buckeye Nation). True, Ole Miss's weakness is on the ground, and the Sooners haven't really made their hay running the ball this season, but they were able to find some running room last week at South Carolina. The real question in this one is whether the Rebels will be able to move the ball against a stiff Brent Venables defense. The only team to crack 20 against OU was Texas, who needed help from three Mateer INTs. I don't think Oklahoma has a huge advantage here, but being at home should make the difference. Miss: 20--OU: 24
Schweinfurth: Outside of the Texas game, Oklahoma has looked really good. Mateer was clearly rushed back for that one. Ole Miss feels like that middling team that just hangs around but won't do much. Clearly, the Sooners are the better team. Kiffin gets mad because his team doesn't score how he wants. Miss: 14--OU: 27
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of two actually decent SEC teams (LSU=not decent). The Sooners obviously pushed Mateer back into service a week early but seem to have righted the ship. Ole Miss, meanwhile, looked like a juggernaut offensively against Georgia, until it mattered and Kirby and Co figured some things out. The last quarter and a half may provide a blueprint for Oklahoma’s superior defense to stymie the Rebels. Sooners and Rebels swap places in the SEC-laden top 25. Bleh. Miss: 19—OU: 24
Seeberg: Intriguing matchup here of two actually decent SEC teams (LSU=not decent). The Sooners obviously pushed Mateer back into service a week early but seem to have righted the ship. Ole Miss, meanwhile, looked like a juggernaut offensively against Georgia, until it mattered and Kirby and Co figured some things out. The last quarter and a half may provide a blueprint for Oklahoma’s superior defense to stymie the Rebels. Sooners and Rebels swap places in the SEC-laden top 25. Bleh. Miss: 19—OU: 24
South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers
Draper: So....USF was the early season G5 darling, then it transferred to Memphis. After a stinker vs. a random guy who replaced Trent Dilfer (Elvis Grbac?), this game has all the playoff implications one could ask for. There's a decent chance the winner has the inside track to the G5 representation in the playoff and the loser is just plain out. A virtual elimination game in October, and we're in Memphis. However, Memphis has one decent win (over Arkansas--who isn't very good) while USF has 1.5 decent wins (Boise and @Florida--which is always tough). ESPN has this as a pure coin flip and it really does seem that way, but I'll give the edge to the team who has won on the road before. Go Bulls. USF: 20--Mem: 17
Hoying: Woof, Tigers. 6-0 with a win over Arkansas and you lose to UAB? The team that was so bad they got Trent Dilfer fired midseason? I guess the lesson here is to watch out for teams with fired coaches and nothing to lose (uh-oh) (x2). South Florida were the darlings of September before Miami snapped them back to reality, but they've been on a tear through the AC since, including handing North Texas their only loss (and by 27 no less). This one will likely come down to the quality of the offense. The Bulls are averaging less than 3 points per quality drive (a drive penetrating the opponent's 40 or scoring a TD, RIP Eckel Rate) and only putting quality drives together 36.5% of the time, while Memphis gets 4.4 points out of their quality drives and gets going at a much healthier 45.2% rate. Add in a punishing Memphis ground game with RBs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, along with QB Brendon Lewis, and I think the honeymoon is over for USF. USF: 17--Mem: 24
Hoying: Woof, Tigers. 6-0 with a win over Arkansas and you lose to UAB? The team that was so bad they got Trent Dilfer fired midseason? I guess the lesson here is to watch out for teams with fired coaches and nothing to lose (uh-oh) (x2). South Florida were the darlings of September before Miami snapped them back to reality, but they've been on a tear through the AC since, including handing North Texas their only loss (and by 27 no less). This one will likely come down to the quality of the offense. The Bulls are averaging less than 3 points per quality drive (a drive penetrating the opponent's 40 or scoring a TD, RIP Eckel Rate) and only putting quality drives together 36.5% of the time, while Memphis gets 4.4 points out of their quality drives and gets going at a much healthier 45.2% rate. Add in a punishing Memphis ground game with RBs Sutton Smith and Greg Desrosiers, along with QB Brendon Lewis, and I think the honeymoon is over for USF. USF: 17--Mem: 24
Schweinfurth: I'm flipping a coin here. Sorry, this one falls in the category of not enough time to pay attention to non-P5 teams. Yea, I'm that guy this year. Coin says: USF: 31--Mem: 20
Seeberg: Fun matchup here that I hope gets the attention it deserves. Both teams are eyeing a playoff bid now that Ashton Jeanty is a pro. I expect Memphis to move the ball pretty well, but USF can sling it and run it with dual threat QB Byron Brown at the helm. I don’t think the Bulls are good enough to run away and hide in the road environment a la OSU at Illinois, but I do think they have the horses to pull away late. USF: 35—Mem: 24
Seeberg: Fun matchup here that I hope gets the attention it deserves. Both teams are eyeing a playoff bid now that Ashton Jeanty is a pro. I expect Memphis to move the ball pretty well, but USF can sling it and run it with dual threat QB Byron Brown at the helm. I don’t think the Bulls are good enough to run away and hide in the road environment a la OSU at Illinois, but I do think they have the horses to pull away late. USF: 35—Mem: 24
Missouri Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores
Draper: And we meet again Mr. Vanderbilt. Diego Pavia and Clark Lea (he's so gone) have Vanderbilt...yes, Vanderbilt knocking on the doors of the playoffs, not because of a nice conference draw or lucky bounces, but because they're actually very talented. I thought we'd see the shine come off last week, but they went right at LSU and took it to 'em. Missouri is a team I just can't figure out. They seem to flirt with 9-3, 10-2 every year, and I just don't care. We keep expecting the Dores to stop this madness, but, like Indiana, they have some dogs and keep coming. Pavia continues to force his way into the Heisman conversation and Vandy keeps it rolling. Mizz: 20--Vandy: 30
Hoying: Here they are: the teams that won't die. Both of them keep hanging around with much better rankings than they deserve. Seriously, what is Missouri's best win? A quality loss to Alabama? And does anyone expect either of these teams to compete for the SEC championship? We've seen Vanderbilt's ceiling; they left it on the field in Tuscaloosa in the second quarter. The offense is good enough to break through the LSU brick wall but will Mizzou be able to hold serve? QB Beau Pribula is serviceable, certainly good enough to be a backup on a national title contender (and maybe even a starter if the first-stringer would, say, suffer a season ending injury) but he's no Go Diego Go. The swagmaster continues to take the SEC by storm, and he's not stopping for the likes of Missouri. Going to Austin next week may be a bit of a rude awakening, but the dream continues for now. Mizz: 24--Vandy: 30
Hoying: Here they are: the teams that won't die. Both of them keep hanging around with much better rankings than they deserve. Seriously, what is Missouri's best win? A quality loss to Alabama? And does anyone expect either of these teams to compete for the SEC championship? We've seen Vanderbilt's ceiling; they left it on the field in Tuscaloosa in the second quarter. The offense is good enough to break through the LSU brick wall but will Mizzou be able to hold serve? QB Beau Pribula is serviceable, certainly good enough to be a backup on a national title contender (and maybe even a starter if the first-stringer would, say, suffer a season ending injury) but he's no Go Diego Go. The swagmaster continues to take the SEC by storm, and he's not stopping for the likes of Missouri. Going to Austin next week may be a bit of a rude awakening, but the dream continues for now. Mizz: 24--Vandy: 30
Schweinfurth: Two teams that I'm not quite sure of. I will stay with the chaos QB though. Mizz: 35--Vandy: 38
Seeberg: Quite frankly it’s sad that we’re in late October and I have NO idea if either of these teams is any good. The super conferences have watered down everyone’s schedules. These two have a combined 1 ranked win- and LSU has no business being ranked. Diego is building a Heisman campaign…who would’ve thought Heisman front runners would be housed in Nashville and Bloomington?? However, defense travels, as does the run game, and the Tigers have both. Pavia is hitting some real defenses the next couple weeks, and those Heisman hopes will be dashed as Sayin climbs up the rankings by literally putting up EA CFB completion numbers. Tigers late. Mizz: 27—Vandy: 20
Seeberg: Quite frankly it’s sad that we’re in late October and I have NO idea if either of these teams is any good. The super conferences have watered down everyone’s schedules. These two have a combined 1 ranked win- and LSU has no business being ranked. Diego is building a Heisman campaign…who would’ve thought Heisman front runners would be housed in Nashville and Bloomington?? However, defense travels, as does the run game, and the Tigers have both. Pavia is hitting some real defenses the next couple weeks, and those Heisman hopes will be dashed as Sayin climbs up the rankings by literally putting up EA CFB completion numbers. Tigers late. Mizz: 27—Vandy: 20
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Washington Huskies
Draper: Are either of these teams good? Are they bad? I have no freaking clue. I tend to think that they're neither, but the winner of this game may vault to top 5 status in the Big 10 (by top 5, I mean....5th).Luke Altmeyer has been wonderful all year except when playing a top 2 team, but Washington's defense isn't special. This comes down to the play of Demond Williams. If he's cooking, the Huskies should take control, but if he's off, old Bert will reign supreme. In Seattle, I think Williams and the Husky offense can get it done (unless they play OSU). The west coast takes a small step forward to relevance. Ill: 24--UW: 31
Hoying: In lieu of watching the Buckeyes this week, enjoy this showcase of the pretty good teams the Buckeyes beat by double digits on the road. Each has taken an additional hit, though only one of them lost by 50+. Washington, somewhat worryingly, has had a complete failure to launch against both of the recent national champions they've played this year, although a soft and exploitable Illini secondary may be just what the doctor ordered to get the Huskies back on track. Defense travels, but Illinois doesn't have a great defense and they're traveling very, very far, something teams don't seem to be able to get away this season unless you're in the Tom Raper RV advertising area. Don't expect Demond Williams to toss another 3 INTs this week, particularly since I don't expect UW to be doing a lot of throwing playing from behind. It's a shame, really, since the Illini's remaining schedule sets up rather nicely for them to reach double digits and a likely Playoff berth if they can just survive this week, but I think Washington is just a little bit better and have the roar of the Seattle crowd behind them. Ill: 24--UW: 33
Hoying: In lieu of watching the Buckeyes this week, enjoy this showcase of the pretty good teams the Buckeyes beat by double digits on the road. Each has taken an additional hit, though only one of them lost by 50+. Washington, somewhat worryingly, has had a complete failure to launch against both of the recent national champions they've played this year, although a soft and exploitable Illini secondary may be just what the doctor ordered to get the Huskies back on track. Defense travels, but Illinois doesn't have a great defense and they're traveling very, very far, something teams don't seem to be able to get away this season unless you're in the Tom Raper RV advertising area. Don't expect Demond Williams to toss another 3 INTs this week, particularly since I don't expect UW to be doing a lot of throwing playing from behind. It's a shame, really, since the Illini's remaining schedule sets up rather nicely for them to reach double digits and a likely Playoff berth if they can just survive this week, but I think Washington is just a little bit better and have the roar of the Seattle crowd behind them. Ill: 24--UW: 33
Schweinfurth: Washington moved the ball against TTUN, they just had a lot of errors in the red zone. Illinois doesn't seem to have the defense or offensive weaponry to keep up with UW. The Huskies should put up some numbers here. Ill: 28--UW: 42
Seeberg: So let’s track this. Ohio State is this year’s Ohio State, Indiana is this year’s Oregon, Oregon is this year’s Penn State, and who is this year’s Indiana? A lot of money was on it being Illinois, but this is a tricky road contest. Win this one and the schedule softens to a nice 10-2 landing spot somewhere likely on the inside edge of the playoffs. Washington is another of the boatload of 5-2 B1G squads (seriously, NW is 5-2 as is every single one of their remaining opponents), and they can score it. A lousy showing against UM should have them motivated. The Illini got an extra week to prep for this one, but umbrella coverage won’t work against a mobile QB, and any team that gives up 27 to Purdue is in trouble. Ill: 20—UW: 30
Seeberg: So let’s track this. Ohio State is this year’s Ohio State, Indiana is this year’s Oregon, Oregon is this year’s Penn State, and who is this year’s Indiana? A lot of money was on it being Illinois, but this is a tricky road contest. Win this one and the schedule softens to a nice 10-2 landing spot somewhere likely on the inside edge of the playoffs. Washington is another of the boatload of 5-2 B1G squads (seriously, NW is 5-2 as is every single one of their remaining opponents), and they can score it. A lousy showing against UM should have them motivated. The Illini got an extra week to prep for this one, but umbrella coverage won’t work against a mobile QB, and any team that gives up 27 to Purdue is in trouble. Ill: 20—UW: 30
Upset Special
Draper: CLANGA over Texas
Hoying: South Carolina over Alabama
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Miami
Seeberg: Syracuse over Georgia Tech
Hoying: South Carolina over Alabama
Schweinfurth: Stanford over Miami
Seeberg: Syracuse over Georgia Tech
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