Week 12: Bruination

Standings:

1.) Schweinfurth 37-10 (0-11 upset)
2.) Hoying 35-12 (1-10 upset)
3.) Draper 32-15 (1-10 upset)
4.) Seeberg 31-16 (3-8 upset)

For the first time since the last round of conference realignment, the Buckeyes welcome a Big Ten West (Coast) member to the Shoe. It won't be all new faces, though, as an erstwhile Tennessee Volunteer returns to Ohio Stadium under the lights once again Nico is hurt and UCLA is going to get drilled. Old meets new across the SEC as well as a few top contenders look to keep pace with Texas A&M.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Pittsburgh Panthers

Draper: Notre Dame has the charmed schedule as this is the final hurdle (of 2) for the Irish to surmount after the 0-2 start. Pitt is fighting to say they're a real competitor, but I don't buy the talent. Yeah, they'll come out blazing at home but this feels like a boring slugfest by Notre Dame which ends in the inevitable better athletes simply taking over. Love is a solid RB that should be enough to run over the Panthers, but I don't see this Irish team as particularly elite. Magic can happen for the home team, but not this time. ND: 20--Pitt: 17

Hoying: Two turnovers on downs, a missed field goal, and a fumble. That's what kept Boston College close with Notre Dame despite getting outgained 458-281 a couple of weeks ago, the only opponent that Notre Dame hasn't crushed since losing two heartbreakers to start the season. Well, them and USC, but I don't think the Irish are going to have to worry about facing players like Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon until the Playoff (if they make it there). The Irish look very sound on both sides of the ball, pairing the lethal rushing attack of Jeremiyah Love with hot new thing CJ Carr behind center (or in the shotgun) while still leaning on a defense that's not quite as good as last year's but still quite competent. What does Pitt do? Well, they give up a lot of points; four of their six ACC opponents have cracked 20 (as compared to one of the Irish's last six foes), and the Panthers are allowing a ghastly 95.65% scoring rate to their opponents in the red zone. I don't see much of an opportunity for Pitt to snakebite Notre Dame here. The Irish know this is the only team with a pulse standing between them and a second straight Playoff appearance (and third in the last 6). Not to mention that Coach Narduzzi would really, really rather focus on the Panthers' remaining conference games later this month. Welcome back to the show, ND. ND: 34--Pitt: 20

Schweinfurth: This feels like an elimination game. Notre Dame can't afford another loss, especially without the chance to play on championship weekend. A win for the Panthers might give them an inside track to a playoff spot. Jerimiyah Love is a problem for Pitt. That dude is a beast and surely will help the Irish control the game. I've got the Irish close. ND: 24--Pitt: 21
Seeberg: Well, the pundits keep telling me Notre Dame is good. Watching them get treated like an SEC school (read: being lauded for #qualitylosses) is annoying- particularly since they haven’t won anything of consequence since their head coach was someone who Ryan Day would like to know of his whereabouts. In any event, Pitt could go on an absolute all-time heater the next 3 weeks (ND, GT, Miami) and wind up with an improbable CFP berth, and while I do think the Panthers will get one of those squads, Tony Dorsett isn’t walking through the door to go carry for carry with Jeremiyah Love. Advantage: golden domers. Back door cover city for Pitt. ND: 27—Pitt: 17

Oklahoma Sooners @ Alabama Crimson Tide

Draper: What to do here? Bama is in the standard driver's seat for Atlanta and the CFP, but they have certainly shown some chinks in the armor. Simpson has been playing pretty well, but he's made some dumb mistakes in crucial situations. The talent of the supporting cast is obviously top notch, but the Tide simply make more mistakes than we saw in the Saban era. The Sooner defense has the ability to match (or at least come close) to the Buckeye defense. It depends if they're on their game. I think Venables has the defense show up and they get to Simpson at a good clip....but then they'll be on offense. Mateer has been wildly inconsistent this year and he'll need to be at the top of his game to pull of the upset in Tuscaloosa. I don't think he can do it. The Sooner D plays well enough to win, but Bama is inevitable. OU: 17--Bama: 23

Hoying: I'm still not sure whether Oklahoma is any good, although a tough road win at Tennessee hints that the Sooners may be for real this year. And of course, we all know that Alabama is good after four straight ranked wins™ (three of which are still ranked!) followed by two tough wins against SEC teams in freefall. But much like Notre Dame above, this is Bama's last program with a pulse they'll face until (unlike Notre Dame) the conference championship game, so don't expect any letdown efforts here. Of course, at this point last season, everyone thought Bama had disembarked the struggle bus (how about that get-right game against Mercer?) before getting trampled by the Sooners in Norman. The way Alabama has been playing down to their competition lately, they could absolutely lose this game, especially with their totally moribund rushing attack. You think Ohio State's got problems; they're in Lydell Ross / Maurice Hall territory down in Tuscaloosa. If Ty Simpson does win the Heisman this year, he'll really have had to earn it, because the entire Crimson Tide offense runs through him and him alone. They'll need him against the vaunted BRENT VENABLES defense, although the Sooners may have been exposed, giving up an average of 30 points in their last two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee after surrendering just 66 points in their first 7 games. I have a feeling that all above trends will continue, with Bama playing with their food before putting up enough points to put Oklahoma away. OU: 20--Bama: 24

Schweinfurth: The Sooners were rolling until Mateer got hurt. By rushing back, he may have done more harm than good. Ty Simpson for Bama has been on a heater and even jumped up in the Heisman, because why not. While I don't think the Tide are world beaters, they have the momentum and want revenge from last year. That's all the motivation they need. OU: 34--Bama: 38
Seeberg: Well, the Sooners have certainly fit right in in their new conference, what with that dark red color and failing to live up to expectations. Bama (heavy sigh), however, looks like Bama of old but with one glaring exception: they absolutely cannot run the ball. If you think Ohio State can’t run it, watch the Tide and you’ll feel far better about the Buckeyes’ largely meh running attack. I’d like to think that the Sooners defense is good enough to capitalize on the one-dimensional nature of Ty Simpson and Co, but he’s been good enough to overcome it, and in the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny I expect him to be good enough to do so again. Tide late: OU: 17—Bama: 27

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Southern California Trojans

Draper: The defining characteristic of both these teams is "inconsistency". The Hawkeyes showed incredible defensive fortitude to nearly pull off the Duck upset as well as vs. the Hoosiers (outside of the last minute) but then the team squeaks by a Penn State. The Trojans are gangbusters vs. TTUN, but looked clueless early against the Illini. While Iowa has played pretty darn well this year, I'm not sold on their ability to play tough teams on the road. The toughest road game to date was against a horribly overrated ISU tam...that beat Iowa. SC has the pieces on offense, but seems to struggle to connect them at times. Makai Lemon is a beast and Maiava, while inconsistent, has some top end talent. I think the friendly confines of the Coliseum will be enough for a Trojan win. The Hawks have to travel and the Wave doesn't follow. Iowa: 13--USC: 27

Hoying: Hey, in a world where Tennessee can hang around the bottom of the rankings, why not Iowa as well? Each one has three quality losses against top teams (well, two top teams and Iowa State for one of them)...and no wins to speak of. The thing is, the Hawkeyes were confusticating the Hoosiers and the Ducks in the black hole of Kinnick, and now they have to make the odyssey to Troy to play a USC squad that's been a very dangerous beast at home. I am still not an Iowa believer; their quarterback makes Cade McNamara look like Brad Banks and the last Big Ten team that visited the Coliseum with a QB that couldn't throw ended up being completely stymied on the ground as well (go blue). Somehow, the Hawkeyes are bringing the same horrible Iowa downpour that dampened the Oregon offense last week, but it won't be enough to stop USC's many, many offensive weapons. Iowa: 17--USC: 27

Schweinfurth: Iowa has had a nice run to this point, and the offense looks serviceable. Here is my concern, Iowa was helped by the weather last week as it grounded Oregon. There may be a bit of this in SoCal this week, so the game is probably close. Still, I think I trust Maiava more than random dude from Iowa to make a play. Iowa: 10--USC: 17 
Seeberg: Well, we now know one of two things for certain: God is either a Hawkeye fan or he has a brutal sense of humor. Wind gusts up to 20 MPH and up to TWO INCHES OF RAIN are expected to fall in sunny LA tomorrow as the Trojans welcome Iowa- their helmets still waterlogged from last week. It’s hard to imagine Iowa scoring under any circumstance, but they mustered a good fight against Oregon in similar conditions. The B1G likely wants to see USC win out to get a 4th team in the playoffs (we are not mentioning any other scenario where that could happen). In my mind, the Trojans were strong enough up front against the Wolverines to hold up sufficiently for Maiava to make a few plays. Should be just enough. First to 20 wins! Iowa: 16—USC: 20

Texas Longhorns @ Georgia Bulldogs

Draper: This game is super difficult. Texas continues to be punched in the mouth (by bad teams) and squeak out the win. Then they play Vandy, look like the Horns we expected....and almost poop it away. UGA is another team that has played with fire all year, but keeps arriving on the smiling side. This is a slugfest between 2 heavyweight defense and 2 meh offenses. Arch has the ability to make something happen here, but I'm really nervous to pull the trigger with the inconsistent QB play. Gunner Stockton isn't anything special, but he's pretty good at managing the game. The final point for Georgia is the game being between the hedges. I REALLY want to pick Texas here because the talent is there and both teams are riding on the edge. You know what? Everyone picking the same thing is stupid. Hook them! UT: 20--UGA: 17

Hoying: This is going to be a fun one, because both of these teams have been begging to take another loss the past few weeks and one of them is finally going to catch it. OK, Vanderbilt was never really going to beat Texas after about halfway through the 4th quarter, and Georgia didn't let MSU get anywhere near replicating their near-win over the Horns. But neither of these teams is suddenly going to find a championship identity in the waning moments of the regular season, preseason top 5 rankings notwithstanding. For Texas, the problem is the same as it's been since they put up an anemic 7 points in the Shoe back in August: the passing game doesn't work and Arch isn't him. And the run game is even more moribund, continuing to take steps backwards after a passable performance in Columbus to open the season. Playing Georgia isn't what the doctor ordered to get your attack back on track, even if facing the Dawg D isn't quite like playing on Heisman mode any more. Look for Georgia to suffer a stupid loss at some point, just not this weekend. UT: 17--UGA: 24

Schweinfurth: Neither of these teams really gets me excited. Arch has been a disappointment from the hype, but the Longhorn D has been okay. Texas has to be the desperate team here. One loss and they are on the outside looking in. Georgia may be okay if it's a close loss. I don't have a good feel for this game, because we have seen Texas rise up in these games this year (see Oklahoma). Georgia wins, but Arch has a chance to win it late. UT: 24--UGA: 27

Seeberg: Uh oh, time to watch our quality win take another hit. Amusingly, if UGA wins this one, Sark will be 0-5 against OSU and the Bulldogs in just 13 months. Remarkable. Texas looked like about 25% of what we thought they were at the outset of this 2025 campaign. Now they look like Texas Lite: Good-but-not-great offense, very-good-but-not-elite defense. Have they hit their peak? They’ll need to to win between the hedges. I’m still not convinced anyone in the SEC is on the OSU/IU plane, but Kirby has Georgia closer to that precipice than the Longhorns. Arch scores in the 4th, but it’s not enough. UT: 20—UGA: 24

California Los Angeles Bruins @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: It's late, and it's tough to continue to say the same things over and over. The Bruins are not a good team. Nico is a mediocre QB that does have flashes of skill, but I don't know how he can handle his return to the Shoe and the beatdown he experienced last year. I guarantee the Bullets remember (and the fans) and he will be welcomed back in a Buckeye manner. UCLA doesn't have the horses, so the worry is "can the Buckeyes avoid the stupid game?" I think they can. It will be interesting if Day and Hartline go with the Wisconsin gameplan (or Tennessee) in which we bomb downfield all day or the more "slow approach of death" by 1,000 CJ Donaldson runs. I think they'll mix it up, get Sayin, Smith, and Tate (and Bo) some stats then coast to the finish. So long as this team remember that dumb stuff happens in CFB every year....don't let it happen here. This should be a big Arvell Reese game as he remembers literally cracking Nico's helmet last year. Bucks big, but a little let up in the second half. UCLA: 10--OSU: 41

Hoying: In 2018, Clemson went 13-0 and was awarded the #2 seed in the College Football Playoff despite not playing a team ranked in the top 15 all season. Then they proceeded to win their playoff games by an average of 27.5 points on the way to a dominant 15-0 national championship. You don't need to be constantly tested by the top competition to stay sharp and play at an elite level. Which is a good thing, because the Buckeyes are playing another feckless heap of also-rans this week under the lights in the Shoe. You've seen Nico before; he was the only part of the Tennessee offense that worked last year. But, after getting a little too big for his britches, he's chosen to come back with an even worse supporting cast, and the Buckeyes hadn't even fully deployed Arvell Reese last time Nico was running for his life. The defensive game plan is simple: keep Nico from running free and UCLA will not be able to score. Of course, they didn't score much the last time these teams met in 2001, and it didn't stop Ohio State from losing that one. The good news is that this time UCLA has one of the worst defenses in the country, so it really doesn't matter what Ohio State's game plan is: it's going to work. The last time Ohio State played under the lights, they decided to make it the Julian Sayin show, but Day has been determined to get the running game going, especially configuring what combo of big uglies up front will be able to execute for the stretch run. I expect to see a little bit of everything (except Carnell Tate, maybe, has anyone heard anything about him this week?) as, much like last week, the Buckeyes know exactly what kind of game this is, and Day's tinkering instincts will show themselves again. We'll know what the Buckeyes' real A-game plan is a couple weeks from now in Ann Arbor. UCLA: 3--OSU: 45

Schweinfurth: Welcome back to a night game at The Shoe, Nico. Surely he has some good memories of this place **checks video package, sees helmet explode** Oh. That nightmare can continue this week if Arvell Reese gets to tee off on him. I don't have any worries about the offense versus the Bruins D. Sayin and Smith should be able to march up and down the field with no problems. Nico may move the ball, but I expect this defense to stall out the Bruins O near the goal line. Another week, another win. Maybe Nico should have stayed in Knoxville...UCLA: 9--OSU: 38
Seeberg: Look, we all know what’s coming here. UPDATE: Nico is out with a concussion. Their backup hadn’t thrown a pass in his career. A shutout is definitely in play now. Honestly it’s refreshing to have a boring November instead of the scheduling gods always giving us a massive one leading up to The Game. The line is hovering around 32, seems Vegas has finally gotten wise to the Buckeyes’ dominance. The O line- and apparently Carnell- is a bit banged up and the forecast has some rain and wind. Not super ideal conditions for slinging the rock, but the Bruins are an abysmal 121st in the country in rush defense, allowing 191 ypg. If EVER there was a time to get the run game right (and maybe supplant a certain RG), it’s Saturday night. Stay clean, stay healthy, turn Bo loose, and get to 10-0. UCLA: 3—OSU: 38

Upset Special

Draper: Northwerstern over TTUN
Hoying: Navy over South Florida

Schweinfurth: Florida over Ole Miss
Seeberg: NC State over Miami