Saturday, December 06, 2008

Championship Week!

The final week the regular season is here. It has been a long and interesting season, not nearly as exciting as last year, but NCAA football just has something special about it that makes every game somewhat intersting and special. Chief has a signifcant lead on me in the standings and even if I picked every game opposite of him today, and won them all, would I have a chance of upsetting him. Oh well, it's all in fun and games.

Boston College vs. Virginia Tech

Gomer: Another rematch from 2007's classic game. These two teams have played each other close every time they hook up on the battle field. The severe lack of ticket sales, combined with mediocre teams shows us a few things; the ACC has the most parity of the BCS conferences, the ACC doesn't necessarily deserve an auto-bid (I'm looking at you too Big East), thing is very few people care about this game and the arguement about the existence of a Conference Championship game comes in. It certainly is a debate as to whether these teams need to prove themselves again. BC: 28 - VT: 24

Chief: In a rematch of last year’s ACC title, these old Big East toppers see each other for the 4th time in 2 years. While VT has underachieved this season, they find themselves where they wanted to be. Conversely, the Eagles had no real hopes of repeating as ACC Atlantic champions, yet a nice streak in conference has opened new doors. These 2 teams are very similar with tenacious defenses and questionable offenses. I like the Hokies due to their slight offensive advantage at QB. Senior Sean Glennon and athlete Tyrod Taylor will split time for VT while Dominick Davis is asked to step in after the injury to Chris Crane. The ACC has been a deadlock all year so this should be a great battle. VT: 23—BC: 20

Alabama vs. Florida
Gomer: Biggest game of the day, if not the year. According to some "experts" there's a chance that UF could win and not make the BCSNCG, I for one do not believe that. The pollsters will make sure it does happen. Since when does and idle Big 12 team not get jumped by Pretty Boy Tebow and the SEC Juggernaut? Basically this game is to determine who plays in the naitional champsionship and I think this game will be much more defensively minded than expected. The team with the superior defence is definitely the Tide and I expect them to shutdown the one dimensional Florida attack. As they say, Defense Wins Championships! Florida is a great team, but without Superman #2 (Percy Harvin) who accounts for 13 TDs, the Tide will only have to key on Tebow. Goodbye Heisman, goodbye SEC championship, goodbye national championship, hello raping somebody in the Sugar Bowl (Ohio State? Cincinnati?). Bama: 30 - UF: 23

Chief: This is easily the best matchup of the day and being referred to as a defacto semi-final for the National Championship. The Gators have been touted as the hottest/best team in the country for months, but no one seems to say anything about the undefeated Crimson Tide. Saban has returned Bama to the national stage in only his 2nd year with a stalwart defense and a steady running game (Glen Coffee). Florida was supposed to be here, but I urge everyone not to forget that while they’ve been on fire since Ole Miss, they did lose to Ole Miss…in the Swamp. Regardless, I think I have to stick with Florida even with the potential for playmaker Percy Harvin on the sideline. I hate both of these teams (Florida more so), but I have to pick someone. I think Bama will keep this extremely close, but Florida doesn’t make mistakes. Coffee and Bama will control the ball, but the explosive Gator offense (Tebow) makes the difference. Bama: 20—UF: 24

Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Gomer: This game may be tougher than anticipated for the Sooners. Isn't this the same Missouri team that was ranked in the top 5 and has put up big numbers throughout the season? Chokelahoma has come up with big clunkers when it really matters and I don't think they deserve to play in the national championship. Unfortunately Oklahoma is clicking right now, and Missouri is coming off a disappointing loss to Kansas. Sam Bradford wins the Heisman today. Mizzou: 38 - OU: 48

Chief: The Big 12 championship features an OU team that ‘snuck in’ to the title and a Missouri team with huge expectations that never materialized. No arguments about the South representative here even though I think Texas is probably better. That’s the system; that’s the rule; live with it and move on (I still like McCoy for Heisman). Here is the last shot for Chase Daniel to make a statement that last year wasn’t a fluke. The loss to Kansas last week hurts, but all is forgotten if they can pull off the monster upset and keep OU out of the national title (just like the Sooners did to them last year). Sadly, the Sooner offense is too solid and the Tiger defense is too porous. OU’s defense is nowhere near as good as the Longhorns’, but they’ll come up with a few more stops than Mizzou. Stoops crew give up a bundle…and still win going away. Mizzou: 34—OU: 60

Cincinnati vs. Hawaii, Gomer: Hawaii - Chief: Cincy
Arizona St. vs. Arizona, Gomer: UA - Chief: UA
Navy vs. Army, Gomer: Navy - Chief: Navy
USC vs. UCLA, Gomer: USC - Chief: USC

Monday, December 01, 2008

Rankings

These rankings are comprised of the old BCS formula, with one minor tweak of my own, I add in Collegefootballnews.com rankings. Something to note about their rankings, unlike AP and Coaches, CFN looks at how the team is playing, not necessarily how they could end up.

1. Oklahoma
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Texas Tech
6. Utah
7. USC
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. TCU
12. Ball State
13. Oklahoma State
14. Cincinnati
15. Georgia Tech
16. Georgia
17. Boston College
18. Missouri
19. Brigham Young
20. Oregon
21. Michigan State
22. Pittsburgh
23. Florida State
24. Oregon State
25. Mississippi

A few notes:
-Oklahoma still gets the edge over Texas using the old system, it will be interesting to see what happens after the Sooners defeat Missouri this weekend.
-Penn State will be the Big Ten Auto-Bid, Cincinnati will be the Big East Auto-Bid, USC will be the Pac-10 Auto-Bid after defeating UCLA. Utah gains the non-BCS Conference Berth
-Virginia Tech faces Boston College for the ACC Title and Orange Bowl Berth
-Florida faces Alabama for the SEC Title and bid in the BCS National Championship
-Texas faces Missouri for the Big 12 Title and bid in the BCS National Championship
-Things only get interesting if OU loses the Big 12 Title game, which has happened (see 2003)

Based on these old BCS rankings, here are the games if they were selected today:

Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac-10)
Penn State vs. USC

Sugar Bowl (SEC)
Florida vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12)
Alabama vs. Utah

Orange Bowl (ACC)
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

BCS Championship (#1 vs. #2)
Oklahoma vs. Texas

Texas-Oklahoma re-match? It seems very possible because unlike the OSU-Michigan conundrum 2 years ago, they don't play on the last weekend. Florida-OSU re-match would be nice, PSU-USC will be better than expected, as will VT-Cincy.

Here is the 4 team "play-off"

#1Oklahoma vs. #4 Florida... Should be the real national championship game
#2 Texas vs. #3 Alabama... Traditional powers collide

#5 Texas Tech vs. #6 Utah... Probably better than the experts expect

#7 USC vs. #8 Penn State... Can Penn State return to early season form?

#9 Boise State vs. #10 Ohio State... Close because Tressel is too conservative