Week 1: Getting the Ball Rolling

After a long and lonely offseason following two puzzling faceplants, the Buckeyes are raring to go as they kick off the season ranked #1 for the first time in 11 years. This season's schedule graciously features an aperitif before the steak dinner, but there are enough intriguing matches peppered across the landscape to hold your attention after you've  begun to turn your eyes upon Texas.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Clemson Tigers @ Louisiana State Tigers

Draper: Welcome to the real beginning of CFB for 2026 with a knockdown drag-em-out, fight between....the walking corpse of Clemson and the Villains of 2026. The battle of Tigahs is reasonably intriguing with little to no competition on the family of networks, but...I just don't care.  Texas Tech looked to be the team everyone was going to hate this year but "Ole King Troll" (trademark pending) Lane Kiffin burst into the chat.  Sam Leavitt is a nice QB but I don't see greatness.  On the other side, I couldn't name the QB.  When in doubt, I tend to lean on a tough home environment (and the team with former NFL players on it).  LSU probably ends with 3-4 losses...but this isn't one.  The Kiffin Era keep printing money for ESPN.  Clem: 17--LSU: 30
Hoying: Once upon a time, the LSU Tigers went into Death Valley East and walked out as the team to which ESPN was desperately trying to pin their title hopes after their #1 darling got pantsed in the Shoe. Then LSU went 7-6 and kicked Brian Kelly out of the fam-uh-lee. Now, as LSU desperately scrapes the bottom of the NFL wannabe barrel to fill out their opening day roster, everyone is foaming at the mouth to pin their hopes on the Bayou Bengals again thanks to volatile coach Lane Kiffin, who you last saw abandoning a Playoff semifinalist in the middle of their title run. I expect some growing pains in Baton Rouge, but do you know who else was really bad last year? That's right, the other Death Valley Tigers, and it's becoming increasingly obvious that the sport is leaving poor old Dabo behind as contrasted with the constantly self-reinventing Kiffin. As I said last year, I'll believe the Tigers (the purple ones) (the purple AND ORANGE ones) can win another big boy game against a big boy opponent when I see it. And I didn't see it all last year for the preseason #4 frauds. Nothing changes until something changes. Clem: 17--LSU: 28

Schweinfurth: LSU has a lot of distractions coming into this week. With all of the court dates and noise around cut NFL players at LSU, there is no way Lane has been totally focused on this game. The dude's ego is driving the bus and it may be headed off a cliff. Clemson wasn’t great last year, but you still can’t overlook them. I think LSU squeaks by, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost either. Clem: 16—LSU: 17

Seeberg: Weird one to end the Saturday slate, mainly because literally everyone without a vested interest will be rooting for Dabo. Even with the potential inclusion of guys who apparently can’t make an NFL practice squad, getting traction with so much change may be difficult for Lane. How he continues to get high-profile jobs defies all logic. As for the game itself? It might as well defy all logic too. Keeping your roster from turnover should be beneficial early in the season, and Dabo’s chip on his shoulder is probably visible from space by now. Let’s get the fire Lane train rolling early Clem: 20—LSU: 17

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

Louisville Cardinals vs. Mississippi Rebels 

Draper: How about those Rebels post-Kiffin? They certainly put on a show in the playoffs, but can they continue with a new roster? Wait...what? They have Trinidad Chambliss for a David Lighty year? No real reason to expect Chambliss can't carry them against Louisville when he carried them to the semis last year.  These matchups of teams in the teens always produce surprises, but I just can't quick my priors.  Ole Miss will be getting a lion's share of the betting market, but week 1 is where upstart dreams go to die.  The Grove should be enough, but we shall see.  UL: 13--Miss: 27
Hoying: How long can Ole Miss keep its mojo? The last time a scummy coach (Hugh Freeze) left town, the Rebs spent the next few years having about as much success as their namesakes until the next scummy coach came along. Most of the pieces of last year's puzzle are still in place. The only star player Ole Miss put into the NFL was WR De'Zhaun Stribling, and the Ohio State transfer pipeline seems to be closed off for the moment. And it was current coach Pete Golding, not Lane Kiffin, who had the Rebs one Hail Mary completion away from having a shot at Indiana for the championship (still will never be not weird). The other sideline in this one is less interesting. Louisville is just always kind of there (unless they're upsetting the mighty Miami Hurricanes, see, it can be done), and short of being the latest landing spot for a less-than-elite backup Ohio State quarterback (Lincoln Kienholz this time), there's not much intrigue. The mighty SEC gets to flex its muscles against a ranked opponent, and ESPN gets to breathe a sigh of relief that Week 3 Armageddon won't get spoiled early. UL: 17--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: Early season game and I don’t have much to say here. Is losing Lane Kiffin addition by subtraction? Maybe. Ole Miss should win this. UL: 24—Miss: 35

Seeberg: Lincoln Kienholz makes his actual, meaningful debut here (bowl games need not apply). He’s hyper athletic but the supporting cast still leaves something to be desired. I do think Brohm can coach him up reasonably well, but it’s just too early for that to take full effect. The Lane-less Rebs get a W. UL: 20—MISS: 31

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Southern Methodist Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles

Draper: Why are we picking this? This is just rude.  I know my colleagues are simply trying to get me to just pick my alma mater who has just fallen on rough times so they can let me start the year in a hole....SO THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I'LL DO!!! You thought FSU was in trouble against NMSU? AU CONTRAIRE! This was a masterful rope-a-dope by Norvell as the Noles are ready to reemerge onto the national stage by putting a beatdown on the Mustangs.  You say the defensive line had 0 pressures against the Aggies? That just shows the New Mexico State is ready for the big time.  There's gotta be 4 first rounders on that Aggie Oline.  SMU won't know what hit them as the Seminole Uprising returns to Doak (Note: I may or may not believe this....I'll leave it to the reader to decide).  SMU: 30--FSU: 34
Hoying: Florida State getting passed up for a spot in the 2023 CFP at 13-0 may be one of the cruelest robberies in the history of college football. Not just because it let The Abomination win the championship that year (no, Florida State wouldn't have beaten them either, but let me dream), but because that might have been the last chance at greatness this program may ever enjoy. Much like the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Noles enjoyed decades of success under a legendary head coach, some lesser greatness under a successor they chased away, and now look bewilderedly mediocre year after year. At least Nebraska still fills Memorial Stadium, I guess. I just can't understand how a team in such fertile recruiting territory with such a rich history of success and swagger can be so bad. Even Miami managed to resurrect themselves (still waiting on Florida, though, but take your time, boys). More to the point, S M U, a program that was literally killed off in the 80s, has managed to claw their way back into perennial playoff contention in (technically) a power conference. If I hadn't just watched Florida State squeak by New Mexico State last week, I might have picked the Noles under a "they can't be this bad forever" theory, but...actually, let's just go with that. The worm has to turn sometime, right? Right? SMU: 27--FSU: 30

Schweinfurth: This has to be a make or break year for Mike Norvell. He’s shown a few flashes, but hasn’t seemed able to get into the dance. They’ll have to put up quite a few points in this one to keep things on the tracks to start the year. SMU has been able to score in bunches the last few years. Should be a fun one to watch. SMU: 34—FSU: 38

Seeberg: Well, we have a bit of data at hand for this marquee(?) matchup…and it looks bad for the Seminoles. Struggling to put away a New Mexico State team that was 4-8 last year is worrying. I don’t have a ton of faith in SMU (see what I did there Methodists?), but I’ll be hard-pressed to pick FSU in any game of consequence. Bobby Bowden, Peter Warrick and Co. aren’t walking through that door anytime soon unfortunately. SMU: 34—FSU: 20

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Ball State Cardinals @ THE Ohio State University Buckeyes

Draper: Buckeye football, we've missed you terribly.  After a rather inauspicious end to the 2025 campaign, the Scarlet and Gray enter 2026 with the largest spread of week 1 (and that includes teams playing UMass....uh...sorry Buttgers).  There's not much to say here.  As we enter the Shoe for Senior Day (dumb), the focus will simply be on staying healthy and prepping for Texas.  Ball State will happily take their paycheck and their bowling ball QB and be on their way.  Sayin and Smith light it up early but the backups get extensive time starting in the first half.  The defense will make a mistake or two, but it won't matter.  Bucks roll.  I REALLY wanted to pick the shutout, but I have a feeling a sad FG will ruin the day.  I'm not sure the Buckeyes even cover to keep everything in the bag! Ball: 3--OSU: 52
Hoying: Another year, another dozen-or-so players lost to the NFL draft, and another preseason top 3 ranking notwithstanding. Get ready to get used to some new faces on both sides of the ball, especially this week as the Buckeyes hopefully go 3 or 4 strings deep. We likely won't get the answers we're looking for against BS U, but we can start to look for clues. How will the ball be distributed among the WR corps without a clear #2 option? How will the O-line make room for the running game, and does that include our newly minted captain QB? How many pieces in the secondary does it take to replace Caleb Downs, and what does that mean for getting pressure on the QB? I suggest you don't worry about this sort of thing and, just enjoy yourself. That goes for you all, too. BSU: 3--OSU: 56

Schweinfurth: I’m a simple man. I just want to see what Arthur Smith’s offense looks like (tempo please?) and how Matt Patricia has reloaded the defense. That and let’s get Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman campaign kicked off in style. No injuries, get the backups some time, and tune up for a massive one next week. BSU: 0—OSU: 59

Seeberg:  Well kids, we made it. Another season of Buckeye football is upon us! We have to wait til week 2 for a banger this year, however. I am very curious how both lines will look. Lots of experience up front for Sayin, Bo and Co. If they can keep Julian upright against real competition, it’s natty or bust. The front 6 on D (might as well call it that these days) is more concerning. Lots of production gone. I trust Kenyatta and Eddrick, but too much unknown otherwise. I also no longer trust Ryan Day to go any faster than your average turtle on offense. Gonna need big plays from #4 through the air and chunk plays on the ground to score enough to justify the half-a-hundred spread. Regardless of the opponent, football is back. Enjoy Buckeye Nation, it gets real, real quick! BSU: 10—OSU: 52

Upset Special
Draper: Wisconsin over Notre Dame
Hoying: Washington State over Washington
Schweinfurth: Boise State over Oregon (hahaha)
Seeberg: Ohio over Nebraska

How To Lose Games and Influence Nothing

 

Allow me to take you all back more than a quarter of a century.  Thirty years, to be precise.  The year was 1995.  Toy Story hit theaters that November and ushered in a new era of animation.  Gas was $1.20 a gallon.  Waterfalls and Gangsta’s Paradise dominated the radio (the actual radio, not streaming kids!).  That year, Ohio State football was an absolute juggernaut.  That team had the best offensive lineman in the country (Orlando Pace, winning the first of his consecutive Lombardi Trophies), the best wide receiver in the country (Terry Glenn, Biletnikoff winner), a 3^rd round draft pick at quarterback, and the LITERAL best player in the country in Eddie George, who won the Heisman.  That team hung 45 on 15th ranked Notre Dame and 56 on #25 Iowa en route to an 11-0 start.  Then suddenly, a team with a laughable surplus of offensive firepower forgot how to offense, scoring just 37 points in its final two contests, losses to that team up north and Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.

 

Thirty years later, the script had flipped from offense to defense.  The 2025 iteration of our beloved Buckeyes had FOUR first round draft picks on defense, including the Thorpe Award winner for best secondary player in the country.  This unit allowed 7.8 points per game in the regular season.  Nobody scored over 16 points all season.  Imagine only needing to score 17 points to guarantee victory!  Quite a privilege.  The last five teams to allow less than 11 points per game in the regular season (including, incidentally, the 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes) all won the natty.  To quote former Vikings (and Cardinals during this famous rant) head coach Dennis Green, “Crown their ass!”

 

Then came the Big Ten championship game.  Lots more great defense.  Only 14 points were required to win this game, against the #2 team in the country!  Except 14 points didn’t come, only 10 did.  13-10 *shudders*.  A bizarre, though somewhat dismissible, loss.  Buckeye faithful had been bemused about mediocre red zone play calling and execution all season, a seemingly endless competition to see how many tight ends could legally be on the field simultaneously.  It hadn’t mattered.  Every game had been won.  Until now.  Now, things must change.

 

Except things didn’t change.  Not in the slightest.  Like a degenerate gambler putting good money after bad,  Ryan Day- and whatever other offensive staff he allows any input- doubled down on a head-scratching strategy to intentionally shorten games and keep opponents as close as they are capable of being which, in the case of the final two games, was so close they actually won.

 

Before I continue, it bears mentioning that, to compliment the incredible defense, Ohio State’s offensive cupboard was FAR from bare.  Max Klare, a day 2 draft pick tight end weapon, Bo Jackson, an incredible freshman running back, TWO FIRST ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS AND A QUARTERBACK WHO SET THE ALL-TIME COMPLETION PERCENTAGE RECORD were on this offense.  This is not hyperbole.  Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in college football.  Julian Sayin is the most accurate quarterback in the history of the game (they’ve only been playing it for 150 years or so though, so take that with a grain of salt).  Carnell Tate is a first-round pick, yet WR2 on this roster.  Pure absurdity.

 

Yet somehow, this is the offense that mustered a whole 10 points against Indiana (again, only 14 were needed to win).  This is the offensive unit that was shut out at halftime against Miami.  It doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you score 0 points.  Remember that insane 1995 Ohio State offense?  It scored 23 and 14 points in its last two outings.  Still 13 points more than this team managed.

 

The defense?  Phenomenal.  The word “generational” gets thrown around way too often, but when you’re a quarter of the way through a century and NO defense has allowed fewer PPG through the regular season, that qualifies.  Even counting the Big Ten championship game- against the future national champions- that number was only up to 8.2 PPG which tied 2011 Alabama (national champs, of course).  Indiana averaged 40.3 ppg in the playoffs.  They hung 56 on Oregon.  The Silver Bullets held them to a measly 13, and the offense simply did not do its job.

 

In the bigger picture, I can forgive some of the Indiana outing.  Hartline was leaving, recruiting was in flux and as nice as a Big Ten championship is, there was truly not a whole lot at stake.  The post-game interviews sounded as if it was simply a regular season game and that the playoff would wake this offense up.  The ignition would be hit, the car would shift into 5^th gear, and away the Buckeyes would go.  Instead, Ryan Day chose to stay in 3^rd, cruised town at 35 MPH, and flat out refused to even begin to approach anything like what this offense could have done.

 

Moreover, at the start of the season, when our quarterback was a complete unknown and two new coordinators were being installed, 11-2 sounded about right.  Another CFP appearance was acceptable in August.  But as information compiles, goals are adjusted.  Turns out, that new quarterback was allergic to inaccuracy.  Hey guess what?  That guy that coordinated all those Super Bowl winning defenses in New England knew what he was doing!  Expectations rose accordingly, and justifiably.  Ultimately, those expectations weren’t met.

 

Fair or not, this falls on Ryan Day.  The supposed offensive mastermind managed just 24 points in the final two games of the season with the aforementioned bevy of talent.  There are a litany of truly great Buckeye teams in years past (’69, ’95, ’96, ’98, ’03, ’15, ’19 off the top of my head) that did not win a title for myriad reasons.  2025 has to be added to this list.  A legitimately generational defense was squandered by a coach who absolutely could not get out of his players’ way.  Day’s outright refusal to let his elite offensive players exert their influence on the game to their maximum extent (read:  more plays)- especially when it mattered most in the postseason- will leave Buckeye Nation befuddled for years to come

Week 18: The Upside Down

Standings:

1.) Hoying 52-20 (2-12 upset)
1.) Schweinfurth 52-20 (0-14 upset)
3.) Seeberg 48-24 (4-10 upset)
4.) Draper 45-27 (2-12 upset)

Welcome to the Upside Down, where everything is strange and alien, and the Eleven Warriors sadly weren't quite as successful as Eleven and her warriors (spoiler alert). Nothing better summarizes this year's bizarro world College Football Playoff than the fact that the Oregon Ducks chasing their first ever national championship after coming oh so close so many times during the last 15 years...is the LEAST compelling narrative of the CFP semifinalists.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8

Cotton Bowl: Miami Hurricanes vs. Mississippi Rebels

Draper: Going into the playoffs, there was always a chance for these teams to make a run.  I was more confident in Miami as they had all the pieces necessary, but bad Carson Beck kept them from perfection.  Ole Miss was an absolute wildcard from the get go.  In fact, they're similar to the 2024 OSU squad who entered the playoffs with low/no expectations (for different reasons), but then just decided to win the whole effin thing.  Neither of these teams really expected to be here, but a massive choke by UGA left the door open and a pick six doomed the Bucks.  Can the Cane lines bully the Rebels like they did to the Buckeyes? I think they can, but Chambliss is much more mobile than Sayin.  It will come down to Carson Beck's ability to not make the big mistake and Bain getting to the QB.  I think they'll do just enough to edge out the Rebels who have to be running on fumes at this point.  I hate them...but Michael Irvin's dealer will be making some bank.  UM: 24--Miss: 21

Hoying: It's a good thing these teams are playing each other because each of them is threatening to run out of steam at any moment. We (unfortunately) got to see Good Carson Beck (if you can call less than 6 yards per attempt "good") last week in Jerryworld, but it's always only a matter of time before Bad Carson Beck rears his ugly head. And it starts with pressure. The Buckeyes tallied all of two sacks after putting up four each against Tennessee and Texas in last year's Playoff (and EIGHT against Oregon) against the most Jekyll-and-Hyde pressure sensitive QB since Andy Dalton. Unfortunately for the SEC, their last remaining hope isn't exactly known for their defense, averaging about half a sack per game fewer than your favorite team. It's not like the Hurricane offense put a bunch of points up on the Bucks even with the lack of pressure, but the question will be whether Trinidad Chambliss can succeed where Julian Sayin failed, and whether the Rebel front can give him the time to do so. The other elephant in the room is whether Ole Miss will be able to keep their coaching staff intact to sustain a Playoff run, as another pair of offensive coaches have been abducted by the Lane Train. We saw in the Big Ten Championship what can happen when a team has to face distraction after distraction while preparing for a top opponent. These two teams were my outside-the-box choices to potentially turn it on at the right time and pull off a shocker of a Playoff run, and one of them will be taking it all the way to Miami in a couple weeks. With all the turmoil surrounding the Ole Miss program, and the talented Hurricanes peaking at just the right time, I think they'll keep the SEC out of the championship for the third straight year and get their chance to stop a third Big Ten team from taking the title in as many years. UM: 27--Miss: 24

Schweinfurth: The 'Ole Miss joy ride has to end at some point right? They have been impressive to this point, but with all of the distractions, it has to be almost over. Miami, to their credit, can bring the heat on both lines. It truly feels like Miami is the better and more cohesive team. Keeping Carson Beck from making the big mistake will be important. Miami should win. UM: 28--Miss: 17
Seeberg: Just think- we were a “we can use tempo!” coaching decision away from from THREE Big Ten teams in the final four. *Heaviest of sighs*. Anyway, here’s your game to see who gets to be the runner up this year. Ole Miss found something even after the Lane Train’s departure, but they’re still suspect at best defensively. Trinidad is super mobile, but a team that only needs 4 to get pressure like Miami can afford a QB spy on defense. Miami will likely grind down the Rebels and that tired defense will get gashed late. The U reaches a title game only to get their hopes dashed by a Big Ten school. UM: 27—Miss: 16

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

Peach Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Draper: Ugh....I hate rematches so much.  Let's see...IU went to Eugene and beat this EXACT team on the road this year....but THIS is the one that counts.  While I've faded both of these teams (to my detriment) this year, a new B1G team will be playing for a national championship for the 3rd straight year.  Indiana has been a model of consistency with the upperclassman transfers (do they recruit high school players any more?).  Oregon has continued to thrive with question marks abounding.  The injury to the Duck RB is a real concern in this game, as the Hoosier defense is just awesome.  Can the Ducks slow down Mendoza? I'd suggest asking him his favorite LOTR character...that might cause a delay of game.  It's Cig's world and we're just living in it.  Hoosier mania rolls to the title and we get another interview with the most loveable dork of all time (who is a freaking Heisman winner!).  I can't believe I'm typing this....Indiana to the title.  Ore: 20--IU: 30

Hoying: I hope you enjoyed rematch season, because this is the last one we'll see this year. When these two last played, Indiana pulled out a double digit win in the unfriendly confines of Autzen Stadium, in a game that was only really close because of a late pick six by Oregon. Championship teams can navigate these setbacks. The Hoosiers haven't slowed down since, escaping late against Penn State and needing some boneheaded red zone play by Ohio State but otherwise dominating everyone else they've faced, capped off by the most comprehensive humbling of Alabama since the 20th century. Oregon has been no slouch either, with a bit of a questionable schedule but proving their bona fides with a convincing shutout of the red hot Red Raiders. Rematches have generally flipped the script this season, most visibly with Ole Miss avenging October's fourth quarter collapse against Georgia in last week's Sugar Bowl (offer void for Tulane though), but I just don't see any reason why Oregon takes this one without a monumental collapse by the overwhelming title favorite Indiana Hoosiers (still never won't be weird). We saw last week what happens when a title contender doesn't play up to their potential, but the Indiana players are tough, disciplined, and don't make mistakes. And though Curt Cignetti must be feeling the butterflies leading up to the big moment, on the surface he looks calm and ready (mom's spaghetti). It's not so much that Oregon doesn't have an answer for the 2025 Indiana Hoosiers. It's that nobody does. Ore: 17--IU: 27

Schweinfurth: It's going to take quite a bit to beat the Hoosiers. You need to run the ball effectively and shut down the Hoosiers offense. Oregon can do it. The problem is, it took a pick 6 to keep them in the game. I fully expect this to be close, but Indiana has death machine vibes. Either way, this is probably your true national championship game. Mendoza keeps this one rolling. Ore: 14--IU: 17
Seeberg: I can’t decide which team winning the title would be worse. Oregon not having one is endlessly fun, but the IU fanbase went from nonexistent to never shutting up in about 1.5 years. On the field, remarkably, I do think IU is the better squad. At SOME point, however, talent and experience will win out. Ole Miss is the only good option left, but the Ducks know it’s this year- with big bad OSU out of the way- or never. Dante Moore gets a #1 pick style payday with his performance and sends Oregon to the championship. Quack quack. Ore: 26—IU: 20